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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011434
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1034 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE CAUSING SOME IFR ISSUES AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
BUT SHOULD BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES...WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY MORNING
THEN TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE WILL STILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 011434
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1034 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE CAUSING SOME IFR ISSUES AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
BUT SHOULD BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES...WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY MORNING
THEN TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE WILL STILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010806
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
406 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS SPINNING AROUND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER PINELLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES...WITH
ACTIVITY PEAKING ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DOUBT REMAINS IF SOME AREAS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE 90 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ADVERTISED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE. MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL PRESENT SOME IMPEDIMENT TO HEATING TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...SO SOME OVERNIGHT GROUND
FOG CANNOT BE RULE OUT LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AROUND THE COAST FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN LEVY COUNTY TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

THE BOUNDARY AND LOW WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY NORMAL
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE WESTERLY FLOW. BEST POPS ARE
INLAND...THOUGH MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO NEAR THE LOWER 90S...THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD ONCE
AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
FRIDAY MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW`S 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE) COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR THIS MORNING IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY... AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS (POPS 40 TO 60 PERCENT) ACROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
A BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS FALL SEASON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. A RETURN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 20 PERCENT
POPS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
CENTRAL AND NORTH. AFTER A FEW COOLER DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AND VERY BRIEF IFR/LIFR
WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INLAND.
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTY VARIABILITY AROUND
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AROUND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TODAY. FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTHWARD...THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  89  74 /  50  20  50  10
FMY  90  76  90  75 /  50  20  50  10
GIF  90  74  91  72 /  60  30  60  20
SRQ  88  74  88  73 /  50  20  40  10
BKV  89  69  90  70 /  50  20  50  10
SPG  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010806
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
406 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS SPINNING AROUND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER PINELLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES...WITH
ACTIVITY PEAKING ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DOUBT REMAINS IF SOME AREAS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE 90 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ADVERTISED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE. MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL PRESENT SOME IMPEDIMENT TO HEATING TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...SO SOME OVERNIGHT GROUND
FOG CANNOT BE RULE OUT LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AROUND THE COAST FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN LEVY COUNTY TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

THE BOUNDARY AND LOW WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY NORMAL
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE WESTERLY FLOW. BEST POPS ARE
INLAND...THOUGH MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO NEAR THE LOWER 90S...THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD ONCE
AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
FRIDAY MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW`S 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE) COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR THIS MORNING IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY... AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS (POPS 40 TO 60 PERCENT) ACROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
A BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS FALL SEASON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. A RETURN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 20 PERCENT
POPS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
CENTRAL AND NORTH. AFTER A FEW COOLER DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AND VERY BRIEF IFR/LIFR
WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INLAND.
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTY VARIABILITY AROUND
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AROUND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TODAY. FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTHWARD...THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  89  74 /  50  20  50  10
FMY  90  76  90  75 /  50  20  50  10
GIF  90  74  91  72 /  60  30  60  20
SRQ  88  74  88  73 /  50  20  40  10
BKV  89  69  90  70 /  50  20  50  10
SPG  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010115
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PASCO/PINELLAS
COUNTY COAST EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS HAVE SETUP WHILE THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSIST SOUTH OF
IT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS
COULD MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY STILL AROUND WE SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND WILL ONLY UPDATE ZONES TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCE WORDING FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST FROM ABOUT SRQ NORTHWARD.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR/AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED MAKE IT TO PGD...FMY AND RSW AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THIS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  88 /  20  50  20  40
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  72  90  74  90 /  20  60  30  50
SRQ  74  87  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  69  89  70  89 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  77  86  78  88 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 301956
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM OFF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS
FURTHER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN...PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING
TEMPO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 02Z...WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
FMY  75  90  75  90 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  72  90  74  90 /  40  60  30  50
SRQ  74  87  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  69  88  70  89 /  40  50  20  50
SPG  77  86  78  88 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING ONSHORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE
STORMS DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS GROUNDS ARE SATURATED AND SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
VCTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING ONSHORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE
STORMS DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS GROUNDS ARE SATURATED AND SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
VCTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300811
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES AS A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WAKE UP TO SOME FOG...THOUGH IT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

00Z TBW SOUNDING AND 00Z TLH SOUNDING BOTH HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
KEEP DECENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUIDANCE RESOLVING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN...SOME ALREADY
IS OFFSHORE IN THE GULF AND MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS HOUR ACCORDING
TO RADAR. COVERAGE SHOULD FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. SOME AREAS OF THE
NATURE COAST COULD SEE GLIMPSES OF FALL WITH TEMPERATURES SNEAKING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE SUPPORT AT THE UPPER LEVELS MOVES
ON...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW SEA
BREEZE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE OR DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST BEFORE INCREASING INLAND THANKS TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME SOGGY AREAS A TAD
DRIER AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD
WARMER...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TIMING FOR A LOCATION.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT LAL THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME OTHER TERMINALS COULD SEE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH SOME
VARIABLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE IN FOG-PRONE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
DAY OF RAINS COULD KEEP THEM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DRIER WEATHER HELPS GIVE THE AREA A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN LONG ENOUGH TO LET THE RIVERS GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT TODAY AS
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...AROUND 15 KNOTS...THOUGH TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A SATURATED AREA COULD CREATE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  89  75  90  75 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  88  73  90  74 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  86  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  87  70  89  70 /  60  30  60  20
SPG  86  77  87  78 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300811
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES AS A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WAKE UP TO SOME FOG...THOUGH IT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

00Z TBW SOUNDING AND 00Z TLH SOUNDING BOTH HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
KEEP DECENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUIDANCE RESOLVING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN...SOME ALREADY
IS OFFSHORE IN THE GULF AND MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS HOUR ACCORDING
TO RADAR. COVERAGE SHOULD FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. SOME AREAS OF THE
NATURE COAST COULD SEE GLIMPSES OF FALL WITH TEMPERATURES SNEAKING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE SUPPORT AT THE UPPER LEVELS MOVES
ON...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW SEA
BREEZE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE OR DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST BEFORE INCREASING INLAND THANKS TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME SOGGY AREAS A TAD
DRIER AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD
WARMER...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TIMING FOR A LOCATION.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT LAL THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME OTHER TERMINALS COULD SEE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH SOME
VARIABLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE IN FOG-PRONE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
DAY OF RAINS COULD KEEP THEM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DRIER WEATHER HELPS GIVE THE AREA A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN LONG ENOUGH TO LET THE RIVERS GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT TODAY AS
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...AROUND 15 KNOTS...THOUGH TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A SATURATED AREA COULD CREATE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  89  75  90  75 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  88  73  90  74 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  86  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  87  70  89  70 /  60  30  60  20
SPG  86  77  87  78 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING TBW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2.4 INCHES...STILL IN PLACE. A TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. THE DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. ON
TUESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT TO INDICATE ISOLATED POPS BECOMING SCATTERED LATE AND
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOME OF THESE COULD EFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY CAUSING
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  50  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  20  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  40  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  77  86 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING TBW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2.4 INCHES...STILL IN PLACE. A TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. THE DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. ON
TUESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT TO INDICATE ISOLATED POPS BECOMING SCATTERED LATE AND
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOME OF THESE COULD EFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY CAUSING
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  50  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  20  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  40  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  77  86 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A ROBUST LOW WAS OVER THE ROCKIES...A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND TROUGHING
EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO SPRAWLED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG
OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE GA/FL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS OF LOW-RIDGE-TROUGHING...FROM WEST
TO EAST...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE EASTERN
TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. IN RESPONSE THE STEERING FLOW
GOES FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE...
MODEL PWATS RANGE IN THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE...SAGGING DOWN ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. THE DEEPEST  MOISTURE TREKS TO THE EAST WITH PWATS ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW COASTAL AREAS TRIMMING DOWN TO AROUND 2
INCHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY EASES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TREKS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THEN REACHING
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUE. AS THE LOW TAKES AN
EASTERLY TRACK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST BETWEEN THE
KEYS AND CUBA.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE. THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WILL KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING THEN INTERIOR
SECTIONS TUE. CONVECTION WINDS DOWN BUT DOES NOT END OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH MANY/MOST AREAS ALREADY SATURATED THERE COULD BE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
ANTICIPATE HANDLING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES
RATHER THAN A WATCH. MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE NEAR OR IN FLOOD STAGE
SO RESIDENTS NEARBY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR LOWS WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF
COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/18Z-30/18Z. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING WITH A PREVAILING BKN MID DECK AND
VCNTY TSRA. HAVE BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR IN TSRA...SOONER IN THE
NORTH AND LATER IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT TSRA TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY BKN VFR CIGS. VCNTY SHRA/TSRA BEGIN TO IMPACT
TERMINALS AGAIN AFTER 09Z. WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH OR BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  60  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  50  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  60  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  76  86 /  60  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE













000
FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A ROBUST LOW WAS OVER THE ROCKIES...A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND TROUGHING
EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO SPRAWLED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG
OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE GA/FL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS OF LOW-RIDGE-TROUGHING...FROM WEST
TO EAST...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE EASTERN
TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. IN RESPONSE THE STEERING FLOW
GOES FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE...
MODEL PWATS RANGE IN THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE...SAGGING DOWN ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. THE DEEPEST  MOISTURE TREKS TO THE EAST WITH PWATS ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW COASTAL AREAS TRIMMING DOWN TO AROUND 2
INCHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY EASES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TREKS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THEN REACHING
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUE. AS THE LOW TAKES AN
EASTERLY TRACK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST BETWEEN THE
KEYS AND CUBA.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE. THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WILL KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING THEN INTERIOR
SECTIONS TUE. CONVECTION WINDS DOWN BUT DOES NOT END OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH MANY/MOST AREAS ALREADY SATURATED THERE COULD BE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
ANTICIPATE HANDLING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES
RATHER THAN A WATCH. MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE NEAR OR IN FLOOD STAGE
SO RESIDENTS NEARBY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR LOWS WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF
COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/18Z-30/18Z. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING WITH A PREVAILING BKN MID DECK AND
VCNTY TSRA. HAVE BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR IN TSRA...SOONER IN THE
NORTH AND LATER IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT TSRA TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY BKN VFR CIGS. VCNTY SHRA/TSRA BEGIN TO IMPACT
TERMINALS AGAIN AFTER 09Z. WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH OR BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  60  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  50  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  60  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  76  86 /  60  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE












000
FXUS62 KTBW 291348
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
948 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A
BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH REACHED FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO SOUTH GA AND
NORTH FL. THE TBW 12Z RAOB CAME IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.3 INCHES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYER...THAT BECAME SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT. OTHER CENTRAL AND NORTH FL RAOBS HAD PWAT IN THE 2.2. TO
2.3 INCH RANGE...SOUTH FL SITES HAD 1.8-1.9 INCHES. LATEST RADAR
SHOWS JUST SHOWERS...A FEW ROBUST...OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORMING UP A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS IN THE NEAR TERM OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/12Z-30/12Z. BKN MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SCT-NMRS TSRA AGAIN
EXPECTED BUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS SO TAFS JUST
HAVE VCTS. EAST AND SE WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT FROM THE
EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  75  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  88  73  87  73 /  70  20  70  30
SRQ  86  75  87  75 /  50  40  50  50
BKV  86  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  85  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD










000
FXUS62 KTBW 290817
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME BREAKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH SOME CONVECTION 30+ MILES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

TODAY...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DIFFERENT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH
GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FLOODING GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND THE IMPACT OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DELAY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WE
SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN/SPRINKLES MAY SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2
PM...ASSUMING THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINS
SUFFICIENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...WITH LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING
INTERIOR ZONES. AFTER 5 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF
THE NATURE COAST...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 11
PM GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVER THE NATURE COAST...WILL
KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN PLACE HERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE THEN
SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF COURSE
THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY. WE EXPECT AN EARLIER START AND END TO THE
CONVECTION GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION
TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  75  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  88  73  87  73 /  70  20  70  30
SRQ  86  75  87  75 /  60  40  50  50
BKV  86  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  85  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 290817
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME BREAKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH SOME CONVECTION 30+ MILES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

TODAY...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DIFFERENT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH
GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FLOODING GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND THE IMPACT OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DELAY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WE
SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN/SPRINKLES MAY SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2
PM...ASSUMING THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINS
SUFFICIENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...WITH LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING
INTERIOR ZONES. AFTER 5 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF
THE NATURE COAST...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 11
PM GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVER THE NATURE COAST...WILL
KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN PLACE HERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE THEN
SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF COURSE
THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY. WE EXPECT AN EARLIER START AND END TO THE
CONVECTION GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION
TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  75  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  88  73  87  73 /  70  20  70  30
SRQ  86  75  87  75 /  60  40  50  50
BKV  86  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  85  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 290127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN ANOTHER WET
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST RADAR ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY FROM TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES. MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN
IS LINGERING ACROSS THE LAND ZONES WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST INTO THE GULF
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TURN WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY...SO THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST...DESPITE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING. THIS
SHOULD GIVE THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA A
MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE LOWER...STORM COVERAGE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MOVING INTO THE COAST
BY MID MORNING...THEN STORMS EXPANDING OVER THE INTERIOR DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
COAST...THE BEST STORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY.

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...MOST LIKELY AT
KTPA...KLAL...KSRQ...AND KPGD. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL TAF
SITES BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  76  87 /  50  50  50  60
FMY  74  90  75  90 /  50  50  30  50
GIF  73  89  73  90 /  40  60  40  60
SRQ  73  87  76  87 /  50  50  40  50
BKV  71  87  71  88 /  50  60  50  60
SPG  75  86  78  88 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 290127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN ANOTHER WET
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST RADAR ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY FROM TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES. MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN
IS LINGERING ACROSS THE LAND ZONES WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST INTO THE GULF
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TURN WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY...SO THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST...DESPITE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING. THIS
SHOULD GIVE THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA A
MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE LOWER...STORM COVERAGE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MOVING INTO THE COAST
BY MID MORNING...THEN STORMS EXPANDING OVER THE INTERIOR DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
COAST...THE BEST STORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY.

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...MOST LIKELY AT
KTPA...KLAL...KSRQ...AND KPGD. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL TAF
SITES BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  76  87 /  50  50  50  60
FMY  74  90  75  90 /  50  50  30  50
GIF  73  89  73  90 /  40  60  40  60
SRQ  73  87  76  87 /  50  50  40  50
BKV  71  87  71  88 /  50  60  50  60
SPG  75  86  78  88 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 281954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST REACHED DOWN TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST WHILE RIDGING STRETCHED FROM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TO FL AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS
DOMINATED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLY AND A FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-MONDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL MIDWESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SOME AS IT SLIDES
EAST...REACHING THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFTS
THE STEERING FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A LARGE
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL.
MODEL PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 2.O TO 2.4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES IN NORTH FL OR SOUTH GA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY THE
FRONTAL TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOUTH GA AND NORTH
FL. A LOW FORMS ON THE TROUGH...IN NORTH FL ACCORDING TO THE GFS
BUT IN SOUTH GA IN THE NAM SOLUTION. THE ECMWF KEEPS JUST A
TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS NOW
OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO CONTINUE AND
SPREAD WEST AND NORTH OVER THE REMAINING COUNTIES. DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE RIVERS
ARE NEAR OR IN FLOOD STAGE SO RESIDENTS NEARBY SHOULD STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

OVERNIGHT INTO MON...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN WIND
DOWN OVER MOST LAND AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT WHILE CONTINUING ON THE
GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE NEARBY TROUGH
AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS OR STORMS ONGOING. ON
MON DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ON SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT THE DS2 FORECASTER ARRIVED AT A
CONSENSUS THAT DOES NOT SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE LOWS BUT JUST BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HIGHS...THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLE.

THE NEXT BIG PATTERN CHANGE COULD BE THE HINT OF AUTUMN BEHIND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA BEHIND A
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. EITHER
WAY...SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A TASTE OF
FALL. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS NORMALLY LOW...BUT THE TREND
TOWARDS CONSENSUS OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL GUIDANCE MAKES THE TASTE OF
FALL WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z-29/18Z. BKN MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND TSRA EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH
TEMPO MVFR IN TSRA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. SOME LATE NIGHT STATUS AOB 1K
FEET POSSIBLE BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP TAFS AT SCT.
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES EASES EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON
THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...WITH BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  76  87 /  50  50  50  60
FMY  74  90  75  90 /  40  50  30  50
GIF  73  89  73  90 /  40  60  40  60
SRQ  73  87  76  87 /  50  50  40  50
BKV  71  87  71  88 /  50  60  50  60
SPG  75  86  77  88 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE









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