000
FXUS62 KTBW 240844
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
444 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S. THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING FOR SOUTHERN AND
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A BIT MORE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT...WIT
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS LEADING TO SATURDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE...KEEPING A
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SO RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S
MOST OTHER AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS...KEEPING AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE
POPS IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AT
NORMAL FOG-PRONE SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES. COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
OR SO AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO UP TO 4 FEET. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION AND
ADVISORY HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES MAY
RESULT IN A NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND/OR RED FLAG WARNINGS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 70 92 65 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 93 67 89 63 / 10 10 0 0
SRQ 86 70 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 90 62 88 55 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 86 73 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLISLE/JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 240059
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR KEPT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
A MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS NOTED OVER
POLK COUNTY...WITH A FEW OTHERS NOW EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
HIGHLANDS COUNTY. AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER HIGHLANDS COUNTY TO WIND DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS
SPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHICH ARE NOW RECEIVING RAINFALL OR RECEIVED
RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS INLAND ZONES IN A MID EVENING ONCE IT ENDS...OTHERWISE NO
OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ARCADIA TO SEBRING LINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION...OTHERWISE PLEASANT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH BREEZY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY AT LAL AND PGD.
FRIDAY MORNING VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL
SUPPORT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...18/FLEMING
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...75/LEWIS
000
FXUS62 KTBW 231942
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
THREE LONGWAVE FEATURES. LOOKING FAR UPSTREAM WE FIND A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION EMERGES
THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND THEN RIDGES UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FLOW THEN QUICKLY DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MERGES WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH MUCH OF
EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY/BASE OF THIS EASTERN TROUGH. WV IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEFINES A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK NVA
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN MAINLY
SEA-BREEZE DOMINATED FLOW LATE TODAY. THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE IS
QUICKLY BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE INLAND CLEARING THE DIURNAL CUMULUS
FIELD AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW INTERIOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANY LINGERING STORMS BY
MID-EVENING WILL BE OVER TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD SET
UP A MAINLY DRY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR OUR
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AS ITS AXIS
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING FRIDAY. SURGE OF ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THIS TIME WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH...HOWEVER IT WILL ACT TO PROPEL A LATE SEASON TROUGH/FRONT
DOWN AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SEA-BREEZE COLLISION WITHIN A WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LATE DAY STORMS...MAINLY
INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PENINSULA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING NE FLOW. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA...EVEN AT THE SURFACE AND LEAD TO A
NOTICEABLY COOLER OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN FACT...A FEW SPOTS UP TOWARD
CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY MAY FIND THEMSELVES BACK INTO THE 50S FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...AN UNSEASONABLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESCEND OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CROSS-SECTION AND TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM THE GFS
AND NAM BOTH SHOW AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE 850-400MB
LAYER AT UNDER 10%...THAT IS DRY! IN ADDITION...THETA-E VALUES
AROUND 700MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 315K ALMOST REGION-WIDE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
DISRUPTING THE SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BELOW AVERAGE
NIGHT IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 60S AWAY FROM
THE COAST BY DAWN ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING AN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...SO
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS...ISOLD TSRA EAST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LIMITED BR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAL
AND PGD. WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SLIDES OFF TONIGHT AS A
DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF REGION SATURDAY THEN MOVES EAST...AS
IT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EAST GULF WATERS. THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RESULTS IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY EAST
AND NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTIONARY OR LOW END ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER..
A LATE SEASON FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AND LONGEST DURATIONS
FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD. ANOTHER DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY. A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL HELP BRING THESE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 91 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 72 92 70 91 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 71 93 67 90 / 10 10 10 0
SRQ 71 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 65 91 62 87 / 0 10 10 0
SPG 75 90 73 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION/MARINE/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 231349
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
THREE LONGWAVE FEATURES. LOOKING FAR UPSTREAM WE FIND A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION EMERGES
THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND THEN RIDGES UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FLOW THEN QUICKLY DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MERGES WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH MUCH OF
EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY/BASE OF THIS EASTERN TROUGH. WV IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEFINES A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY/EVENING THE
DEPTH OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE (ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS WEAK NVA AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST BEFORE THE TIME OF PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING WILL WORK IN THE FAVOR FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
STILL UNLIKELY THAT THIS SETUP WILL BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR ALL AREAS. SEEING A FEW FAVORABLE
ASPECTS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR UPDRAFT INITIATION AND SUPPORT. WILL
BE WATCHING A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE I-10
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS UP
TOWARD LEVY COUNTY BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HOSTILE AIR ALOFT TOWARD CONVECTION ARRIVES. LOCAL HIGH-RES WRFARW
SIMULATIONS ARE IN FAVOR OF THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO
KEEP THE CONVECTION FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH UPDRAFT RATES THAT ARE
GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BY THIS
EVENING...THETA-E VALUES AROUND 700MB ARE WELL BELOW 320K UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND WHICH WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TOWERS
ATTEMPTING TO GROW.
THE OTHER AREA WE AREA LOOKING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES...MAINLY WELL INLAND
FROM I-75. MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE
LONGER DOWN TOWARD THESE AREA...AND A RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF
THE SEA-BREEZE WILL ADD SOME LOWER LEVEL FOCUS.
LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND 850MB TEMPS OF 16-17C GIVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER A WARM POTENTIAL TODAY. THOSE AREAS NOT SEEING ANY
QUICK SHOWER AND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT INTO
THE LOWER 90S...WITH WARMER SPOTS PEAKING IN THE MID 90S. ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING QUICKLY TODAY WILL HOLD THE BEACHES IN THE 80S.
PATTERN SUGGESTS ANY LINGERING STORMS BY MID-EVENING WILL BE OVER
TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD SET UP A MAINLY DRY...QUIET
AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ENJOY!
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIMITED TSRA EAST OF
THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NEED FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 73 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 92 71 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 86 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 90 65 91 63 / 10 0 10 0
SPG 90 75 89 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 230909 CCA
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
443 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF THE AREA AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY PWAT
VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4 AND EAST OF I-75 ON FRIDAY...SO
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING AN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...SO
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AND
SOUTHERN SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NEED FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 72 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 91 71 91 72 / 0 10 10 10
GIF 91 71 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 85 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 89 64 91 63 / 10 0 10 0
SPG 87 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLISLE/JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 230843
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
443 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF THE AREA AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY PWAT
VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4 AND EAST OF I-75 ON FRIDAY...SO
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING AN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...SO
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AND
SOUTHERN SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NEED FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 72 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 71 91 72 / 0 10 10 10
GIF 87 71 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 82 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 87 64 91 63 / 10 0 10 0
SPG 84 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLISLE/JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 230017
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
817 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ON THE WANE
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG AND OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE ZONES IN A MID EVENING
UPDATE OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID/ZONE CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ON THURSDAY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE. BEST FOG CHANCES WILL BE INLAND...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
HOLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH AN LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF REMAINS IN CONTROL.
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...18/FLEMING
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221832
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
232 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...AIRMASS CHANGE ON THE WAY NEXT
24-36 HOURS. UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TO GET KICKED INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN US. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA TODAY TO MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. DRIER NW MID TO UPPER FLOW TO
LIMIT CONVECTION TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN TYPICAL
FOG PRONE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFTING THE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING A GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE...AND AT THE
SAME TIME IT WILL KEEP THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINT AIR SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AT LEAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT INLAND TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE
SOME TS POP UP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BUT ONLY INCLUDED BR AT LAL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER SUN RISE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHIFTING OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS SLIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE E GULF FOR INCREASING NE-E WINDS
AND CHOPPY SEAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS NEAR SHORE THEN STRONGER WINDS AND
LARGER SEAS OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RHS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 88 72 90 / 20 0 0 10
FMY 71 89 71 92 / 20 0 10 10
GIF 70 91 71 92 / 30 20 10 20
SRQ 71 85 70 87 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 65 89 64 91 / 30 10 0 10
SPG 75 87 74 89 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221441
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1041 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CU
FIELD OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ALREADY
MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND SW FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH ABOUT 10K FT. EXPECT ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RIGHT ALONG BAY BREEZES AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BECOMING SCATTERED WITH INCREASING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MID AFTERNOON THEN NUMEROUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO INTERIOR AREAS AND COLLIDES WITH EAST COAST
SEABREEZE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AS WE HAVE
SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWERS 90S AS WELL.
LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...MARGINAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 17 OR 18Z. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE I
75 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO AS NECESSARY.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF REGION
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BAY BREEZES AND
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 72 88 72 / 20 20 0 0
FMY 90 71 89 71 / 30 20 0 10
GIF 89 70 91 71 / 60 30 20 0
SRQ 87 70 85 70 / 20 10 0 0
BKV 88 65 89 64 / 30 30 10 0
SPG 86 75 87 74 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...20/BARRON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 220840
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE. CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN INITIATE ALONG
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
FARTHER INLAND...MORE INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE ALONG BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED IS PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A DOMINANT GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
WHICH WILL PUSH INLAND QUICKLY EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING THE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA KEEPING A GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE...AND AT THE SAME TIME IT WILL KEEP THE
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINT AIR SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT TAF SITES DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS. VCTS AT ALL
SITES AFTER 18Z AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR OR
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. WINDS MAY REACH
EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SOME DRIER
AIR OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 72 88 72 / 20 20 0 0
FMY 90 71 89 71 / 30 20 0 10
GIF 89 70 91 71 / 60 30 20 0
SRQ 87 70 85 70 / 20 10 0 0
BKV 88 65 89 64 / 30 30 10 0
SPG 86 75 87 74 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLISLE/JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 220112 AAA
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS POLK
COUNTY ALONG WEAK OUTFLOWS AND IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH AFTN
ACTIVITY. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT SHRAS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
THE CURRENT SHRA ACROSS POLK FINALLY DISSIPATES. HAVE MADE
APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO LOWER POPS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG IS THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BRING TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES TO THE
TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 08-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
KLAL AFTER 18Z WITH VCTS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL CONTINUE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS THE REST OF TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS NOT DRY ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW STORMS NORTH OF TAMPA TO MOVE
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE STORMS TO THE SOUTH PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THE MIDDLE MEANS STORM MOTION WILL BE DICTATED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEREFORE QUITE UNPREDICTABLE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM PREVIOUS
SHOWERS.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND AND FOCUS THE STORMS
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA. STEERING LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEXT
TO NOTHING...SO ONCE AGAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DICTATE WHERE
STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 700 AND 850
MBS DRIES CONSIDERABLY. THIS WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS LIMIT
THE OVERALL EXTENT OF STORMS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL JUST HAVE
ISOLATED STORMS...AND THEN MAINLY INLAND.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY...WHILE
U/L RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EDGE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP BROAD EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 22/02Z. MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE OVER
INLAND AREAS AND SHOULD STAY EAST OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ...BUT COULD
IMPACT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW CAUSING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...NO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS WINDS LIGHT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL PUSH A SHEAR LINE THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY RESULTING IN ROBUST EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO HUMIDITY PROBLEMS EXPECTED. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO RATHER POOR DISPERSIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 87 72 88 / 10 20 20 10
FMY 71 90 71 91 / 10 30 20 10
GIF 69 89 70 91 / 20 60 20 20
SRQ 69 87 70 87 / 10 20 20 10
BKV 64 88 66 89 / 10 30 20 10
SPG 73 87 73 88 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211911
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS NOT DRY ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW STORMS NORTH OF TAMPA TO MOVE
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE STORMS TO THE SOUTH PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THE MIDDLE MEANS STORM MOTION WILL BE DICTATED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEREFORE QUITE UNPREDICTABLE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WIND DOWN TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM PREVIOUS
SHOWERS.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND AND FOCUS THE STORMS
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA. STEERING LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEXT
TO NOTHING...SO ONCE AGAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DICTATE WHERE
STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 700 AND 850
MBS DRIES CONSIDERABLY. THIS WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS LIMIT
THE OVERALL EXTENT OF STORMS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL JUST HAVE
ISOLATED STORMS...AND THEN MAINLY INLAND.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY...WHILE
U/L RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EDGE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP BROAD EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 22/02Z. MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE OVER
INLAND AREAS AND SHOULD STAY EAST OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ...BUT COULD
IMPACT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW CAUSING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...NO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS WINDS LIGHT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL PUSH A SHEAR LINE THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY RESULTING IN ROBUST EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HUMIDITY PROBLEMS EXPECTED. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO RATHER POOR DISPERSIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 87 72 88 / 30 20 20 10
FMY 71 90 71 90 / 30 30 20 10
GIF 69 89 70 91 / 30 60 20 20
SRQ 69 87 70 87 / 30 20 20 10
BKV 64 88 65 89 / 30 30 20 10
SPG 74 86 75 86 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION...CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211359
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
959 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...PATCHY MORNING FOG MAINLY OVER THE NATURE COAST IS ON
THE WAY OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.
THE 12Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW THE EXPECTED WARMING AT 500MBS COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS THAT SOME COOLING HAS TAKEN
PLACE BETWEEN 850MBS AND 550MBS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER AN
INCH AND A HALF AND STEERING FLOW AGAIN VERY WEAK...EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WARMING IN THE 400
TO 550 MB LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF OUR STORMS SUB-
SEVERE TODAY...BUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THREAT STILL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR EAST.
THE ONLY UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE TO BRING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WESTWARD TOWARD I-75 BASED MOSTLY ON GLOBAL MODELS
BRINGING ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE COAST IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
TOWARD EVENING. OUR LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE THEM STEADILY INLAND TOWARD EVENING BEFORE
COMING BACK WESTWARD AFTER SUNSET. IN EITHER CASE...THINK WE COULD
SEE SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY NEED TO RAISE
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST FOR TONIGHT. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z
GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 21/02Z. MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND SHOULD STAY EAST OF TPA...PIE AND
SRQ...BUT COULD IMPACT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW CAUSING SOME
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY AROUND A
FOOT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE OFF THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
TURNING OUR WINDS BACK TO THE EAST. JUST MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...CLOSE
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