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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

.MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
MARINE...10/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

.MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
MARINE...10/LAMARRE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...STRONG STORMS TODAY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE - A COLD FRONT
REACHED FROM NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF-
SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING IS...THE NATURE
COAST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...WITH A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...TAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SAT
WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN
WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL
AND DRY DAY TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS A BACKDOOR-TYPE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MAINLY CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA...WILL
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND MORE TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SHRA AND
TSRA EXIT BY SUNSET AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RAIN
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND ERC VALUES LOW FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN SAT AND
INCREASE SUN...BUT THE ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  67  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  82  61  74  51 /  80  20   0   0
GIF  79  53  70  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
BKV  77  50  67  41 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  77  61  68  56 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...STRONG STORMS TODAY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE - A COLD FRONT
REACHED FROM NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF-
SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING IS...THE NATURE
COAST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...WITH A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...TAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SAT
WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN
WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL
AND DRY DAY TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS A BACKDOOR-TYPE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MAINLY CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA...WILL
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND MORE TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SHRA AND
TSRA EXIT BY SUNSET AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RAIN
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND ERC VALUES LOW FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN SAT AND
INCREASE SUN...BUT THE ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  67  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  82  61  74  51 /  80  20   0   0
GIF  79  53  70  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
BKV  77  50  67  41 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  77  61  68  56 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270225 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WAS TIMING OF PRECIP/TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS. FOLLOWING SCENARIO BELOW IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LEANING TOWARD TSTMS IMPACTS SITES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI WITH
2 SEPARATE TSTM EVENTS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND FROPA FRI WILL
PROVIDE HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI AND
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN W
AND NW THROUGH DAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND
FRONT...BUT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR
OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS
PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS ACROSS OUR SRN HALF.
GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT FEEL THE SECOND
SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270225 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WAS TIMING OF PRECIP/TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS. FOLLOWING SCENARIO BELOW IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LEANING TOWARD TSTMS IMPACTS SITES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI WITH
2 SEPARATE TSTM EVENTS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND FROPA FRI WILL
PROVIDE HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI AND
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN W
AND NW THROUGH DAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND
FRONT...BUT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR
OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS
PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS ACROSS OUR SRN HALF.
GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT FEEL THE SECOND
SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270157 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORELEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND FRONT...BUT
COULD SIGNIFICATLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS
ACROSS OUR SRN HALF. GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT
FEEL THE SECOND SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS
AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270157 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORELEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND FRONT...BUT
COULD SIGNIFICATLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS
ACROSS OUR SRN HALF. GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT
FEEL THE SECOND SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS
AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261406
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS MOSTLY GONE NOW.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE EXTENDS FROM
MARION AND LEVY COUNTIES SOUTH ACROSS TO COASTAL PASCO COUNTY. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
OVER A BROAD AREA OVER THE GULF FROM APPALACHICOLA WESTWARD. THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 261406
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS MOSTLY GONE NOW.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE EXTENDS FROM
MARION AND LEVY COUNTIES SOUTH ACROSS TO COASTAL PASCO COUNTY. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
OVER A BROAD AREA OVER THE GULF FROM APPALACHICOLA WESTWARD. THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260747
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
347 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH A JET STREAK OF AROUND 90 KNOTS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED
SOUTHWESTWARD...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGED ACROSS FL TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH IMPULSES RIPPLING THROUGH IT/S BASE AND
UP THE EASTERN SIDE...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSH EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH REACHING THE EASTERN STATES AND THE COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH FL NORTHWARD OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE SLIDES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW TURNS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
FRI. THE JET STREAK SAGS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH
FL FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY...SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WILL ALSO
HAVE THE BEST ODDS OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD WILL EXIT SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
FAIRLY BENIGN BUT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DROP
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE WARMER TEMPS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL REBOUND THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SUBTLE MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY AS FLOW STARTS TO TAKE ON MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ON WED AND THU AFTERNOONS...FAVORING INLAND
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAIL ALTHOUGH LIMITED BR AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING IN SOME
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.
THERE WILL A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY LAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  71  76  56 /  20  20  70  20
FMY  87  72  81  60 /  20  10  70  50
GIF  85  69  79  55 /  50  20  70  30
SRQ  81  72  75  59 /  20  20  70  20
BKV  84  68  75  51 /  30  30  70  10
SPG  82  71  75  59 /  20  20  70  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260747
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
347 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH A JET STREAK OF AROUND 90 KNOTS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED
SOUTHWESTWARD...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGED ACROSS FL TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH IMPULSES RIPPLING THROUGH IT/S BASE AND
UP THE EASTERN SIDE...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSH EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH REACHING THE EASTERN STATES AND THE COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH FL NORTHWARD OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE SLIDES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW TURNS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
FRI. THE JET STREAK SAGS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH
FL FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY...SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WILL ALSO
HAVE THE BEST ODDS OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD SEE SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD WILL EXIT SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
FAIRLY BENIGN BUT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DROP
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE WARMER TEMPS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL REBOUND THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SUBTLE MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY AS FLOW STARTS TO TAKE ON MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ON WED AND THU AFTERNOONS...FAVORING INLAND
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAIL ALTHOUGH LIMITED BR AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING IN SOME
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.
THERE WILL A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY LAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  71  76  56 /  20  20  70  20
FMY  87  72  81  60 /  20  10  70  50
GIF  85  69  79  55 /  50  20  70  30
SRQ  81  72  75  59 /  20  20  70  20
BKV  84  68  75  51 /  30  30  70  10
SPG  82  71  75  59 /  20  20  70  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH MOISTURE LOW-MID LVL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL
ADVECT NORTH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPR TROUGH. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE IS
VERY EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS MOISTURE POOL AND IT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD HELP HAMPER FOG DEVELOMENT ALONG WITH
THE INCREASE IN SRLY FLOW LATE. SREF STILL SEEMS TO LIKE FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT A BIT MORE...BUT BASED ON GFS WILL KEEP JUST
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE SIDED WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS MOS FORECAST
TONIGHT WHICH CALLS FOR JUST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF MID LVL CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP...IFR
FORECAST SHOWN BY NAM MOS COULD VERIFY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75.
SOME ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN WITH
INTERIOR AREAS FAVORED FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  70  77 /   0  20  50  70
FMY  68  87  71  82 /   0  30  30  70
GIF  67  87  68  80 /   0  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /   0  10  40  70
BKV  58  85  66  77 /   0  20  50  70
SPG  70  82  71  78 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH MOISTURE LOW-MID LVL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL
ADVECT NORTH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPR TROUGH. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE IS
VERY EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS MOISTURE POOL AND IT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD HELP HAMPER FOG DEVELOMENT ALONG WITH
THE INCREASE IN SRLY FLOW LATE. SREF STILL SEEMS TO LIKE FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT A BIT MORE...BUT BASED ON GFS WILL KEEP JUST
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE SIDED WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS MOS FORECAST
TONIGHT WHICH CALLS FOR JUST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF MID LVL CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP...IFR
FORECAST SHOWN BY NAM MOS COULD VERIFY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75.
SOME ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN WITH
INTERIOR AREAS FAVORED FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  70  77 /   0  20  50  70
FMY  68  87  71  82 /   0  30  30  70
GIF  67  87  68  80 /   0  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /   0  10  40  70
BKV  58  85  66  77 /   0  20  50  70
SPG  70  82  71  78 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH MOISTURE LOW-MID LVL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL
ADVECT NORTH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPR TROUGH. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE IS
VERY EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS MOISTURE POOL AND IT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD HELP HAMPER FOG DEVELOMENT ALONG WITH
THE INCREASE IN SRLY FLOW LATE. SREF STILL SEEMS TO LIKE FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT A BIT MORE...BUT BASED ON GFS WILL KEEP JUST
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE SIDED WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS MOS FORECAST
TONIGHT WHICH CALLS FOR JUST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF MID LVL CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP...IFR
FORECAST SHOWN BY NAM MOS COULD VERIFY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75.
SOME ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN WITH
INTERIOR AREAS FAVORED FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  70  77 /   0  20  50  70
FMY  68  87  71  82 /   0  30  30  70
GIF  67  87  68  80 /   0  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /   0  10  40  70
BKV  58  85  66  77 /   0  20  50  70
SPG  70  82  71  78 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH MOISTURE LOW-MID LVL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL
ADVECT NORTH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPR TROUGH. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE IS
VERY EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS MOISTURE POOL AND IT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD HELP HAMPER FOG DEVELOMENT ALONG WITH
THE INCREASE IN SRLY FLOW LATE. SREF STILL SEEMS TO LIKE FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT A BIT MORE...BUT BASED ON GFS WILL KEEP JUST
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE SIDED WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS MOS FORECAST
TONIGHT WHICH CALLS FOR JUST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF MID LVL CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP...IFR
FORECAST SHOWN BY NAM MOS COULD VERIFY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75.
SOME ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN WITH
INTERIOR AREAS FAVORED FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  70  77 /   0  20  50  70
FMY  68  87  71  82 /   0  30  30  70
GIF  67  87  68  80 /   0  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /   0  10  40  70
BKV  58  85  66  77 /   0  20  50  70
SPG  70  82  71  78 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 252211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
611 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH A IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE IMPULSES IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 30 TO 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA
BAY SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S..EXCEPT
REMAINING IN THE 70S ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.PREVIOUS MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA REACHES NORTH TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE - CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TRAILS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NATURE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
AND EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
SUPPORT SOME HIGH ODDS OF RAINFALL...FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THEN SPREADING SOUTH. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN THUNDER- STORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG
HOWEVER LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FAIRLY EARLY TIMING WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. WINDS TURN TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE...WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT
CONCERNS AT AREA BEACHES.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...TAKING ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WITH IT AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
SAT THEN OFFSHORE SUN. BY NOW THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA. FOR SUN-TUE THE CA UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TO THE MID
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS
TO FL AND ELONGATES. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
STABLE DRY AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BUT THEM WARM
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT THEN SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SOME
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
AND ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO ALSO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  71  77 /  10  30  40  70
FMY  68  86  71  82 /  10  30  20  70
GIF  67  86  68  79 /  10  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /  10  30  30  70
BKV  58  84  67  77 /  10  30  40  70
SPG  70  82  70  78 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 252211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
611 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH A IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE IMPULSES IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 30 TO 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA
BAY SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S..EXCEPT
REMAINING IN THE 70S ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.PREVIOUS MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA REACHES NORTH TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE - CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TRAILS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NATURE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
AND EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
SUPPORT SOME HIGH ODDS OF RAINFALL...FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THEN SPREADING SOUTH. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN THUNDER- STORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG
HOWEVER LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FAIRLY EARLY TIMING WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. WINDS TURN TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE...WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT
CONCERNS AT AREA BEACHES.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...TAKING ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WITH IT AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
SAT THEN OFFSHORE SUN. BY NOW THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA. FOR SUN-TUE THE CA UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TO THE MID
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS
TO FL AND ELONGATES. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
STABLE DRY AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BUT THEM WARM
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT THEN SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SOME
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
AND ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO ALSO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  71  77 /  10  30  40  70
FMY  68  86  71  82 /  10  30  20  70
GIF  67  86  68  79 /  10  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /  10  30  30  70
BKV  58  84  67  77 /  10  30  40  70
SPG  70  82  70  78 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 252211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
611 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH A IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE IMPULSES IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 30 TO 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA
BAY SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S..EXCEPT
REMAINING IN THE 70S ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.PREVIOUS MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA REACHES NORTH TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE - CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TRAILS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NATURE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
AND EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
SUPPORT SOME HIGH ODDS OF RAINFALL...FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THEN SPREADING SOUTH. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN THUNDER- STORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG
HOWEVER LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FAIRLY EARLY TIMING WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. WINDS TURN TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE...WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT
CONCERNS AT AREA BEACHES.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...TAKING ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WITH IT AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
SAT THEN OFFSHORE SUN. BY NOW THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA. FOR SUN-TUE THE CA UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TO THE MID
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS
TO FL AND ELONGATES. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
STABLE DRY AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BUT THEM WARM
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT THEN SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SOME
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
AND ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO ALSO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  71  77 /  10  30  40  70
FMY  68  86  71  82 /  10  30  20  70
GIF  67  86  68  79 /  10  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /  10  30  30  70
BKV  58  84  67  77 /  10  30  40  70
SPG  70  82  70  78 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 252211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
611 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH A IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE IMPULSES IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 30 TO 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA
BAY SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S..EXCEPT
REMAINING IN THE 70S ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.PREVIOUS MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA REACHES NORTH TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE - CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TRAILS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NATURE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
AND EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
SUPPORT SOME HIGH ODDS OF RAINFALL...FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THEN SPREADING SOUTH. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN THUNDER- STORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG
HOWEVER LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FAIRLY EARLY TIMING WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. WINDS TURN TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE...WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT
CONCERNS AT AREA BEACHES.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...TAKING ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WITH IT AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
SAT THEN OFFSHORE SUN. BY NOW THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA. FOR SUN-TUE THE CA UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TO THE MID
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS
TO FL AND ELONGATES. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
STABLE DRY AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BUT THEM WARM
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT THEN SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SOME
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
AND ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO ALSO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  71  77 /  10  30  40  70
FMY  68  86  71  82 /  10  30  20  70
GIF  67  86  68  79 /  10  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /  10  30  30  70
BKV  58  84  67  77 /  10  30  40  70
SPG  70  82  70  78 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251347
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WITH A RATHER LIGHT
FLOW IN PLACE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN RETURNS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD READINGS IN 70S. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
RETURNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  82  70 /   0   0  20  50
FMY  86  68  87  71 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  86  67  87  68 /   5   0  40  30
SRQ  81  66  81  70 /   0   0  10  40
BKV  85  58  85  66 /   0   0  20  50
SPG  82  70  82  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251347
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WITH A RATHER LIGHT
FLOW IN PLACE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN RETURNS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD READINGS IN 70S. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
RETURNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  82  70 /   0   0  20  50
FMY  86  68  87  71 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  86  67  87  68 /   5   0  40  30
SRQ  81  66  81  70 /   0   0  10  40
BKV  85  58  85  66 /   0   0  20  50
SPG  82  70  82  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 251347
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WITH A RATHER LIGHT
FLOW IN PLACE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN RETURNS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD READINGS IN 70S. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
RETURNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  82  70 /   0   0  20  50
FMY  86  68  87  71 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  86  67  87  68 /   5   0  40  30
SRQ  81  66  81  70 /   0   0  10  40
BKV  85  58  85  66 /   0   0  20  50
SPG  82  70  82  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251347
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WITH A RATHER LIGHT
FLOW IN PLACE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN RETURNS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD READINGS IN 70S. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
RETURNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  82  70 /   0   0  20  50
FMY  86  68  87  71 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  86  67  87  68 /   5   0  40  30
SRQ  81  66  81  70 /   0   0  10  40
BKV  85  58  85  66 /   0   0  20  50
SPG  82  70  82  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 250635
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TOMORROW)...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE STATE
BUT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL US. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING
OVER THE PENINSULA FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW GIVING WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LACK OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY.
EXPECT THE PATTERN TO TRANSITION BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STARTS TO EDGE CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE FLOW. AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT MAINLY FAVOR INTERIOR ZONES EAST OF THE
I 75 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM DURING THE
AFTERNOONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... INITIALLY -
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA REACHES NORTH TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SURFACE - CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TRAILS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NATURE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
AND EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING
THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A JET STREAK OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SUPPORT SOME HIGH
ODDS OF RAINFALL...FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THEN SPREADING
SOUTH. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WILL RESULT IN THUNDER-
STORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FAIRLY EARLY TIMING WILL HELP KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT LOW. WINDS TURN TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND INCREASE...WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOME POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT CONCERNS AT AREA
BEACHES.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...TAKING ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WITH IT AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
SAT THEN OFFSHORE SUN. BY NOW THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
AND FL. FOR SUN-TUE THE CA UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TO THE MID CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS TO FL AND
ELONGATES. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE STABLE DRY AND
GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BUT THEM WARM BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AT THE MOMENT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND LOCATIONS. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS
THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
TERMINALS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENT 6Z FORECAST
MAINTAINS MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LAL AND TERMINALS FROM SRQ SOUTHWARD
BUT WILL TEMPO WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS NECESSARY. AFTER FOG
LIFTS...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR
THE COAST TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. A COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND PUSH SOUTH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY WITH INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECTING RH TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT.
ERC WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL SO NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE TODAY EXPECTED TO SHIFT WELL INLAND
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  82  70 /   0   0  20  50
FMY  86  68  87  71 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  86  67  87  68 /  10   0  40  30
SRQ  81  66  81  70 /   0   0  10  40
BKV  84  57  85  65 /  10   0  20  50
SPG  82  70  82  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 250635
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TOMORROW)...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE STATE
BUT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL US. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING
OVER THE PENINSULA FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW GIVING WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LACK OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY.
EXPECT THE PATTERN TO TRANSITION BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STARTS TO EDGE CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE FLOW. AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT MAINLY FAVOR INTERIOR ZONES EAST OF THE
I 75 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM DURING THE
AFTERNOONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... INITIALLY -
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA REACHES NORTH TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SURFACE - CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TRAILS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NATURE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
AND EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING
THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A JET STREAK OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SUPPORT SOME HIGH
ODDS OF RAINFALL...FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THEN SPREADING
SOUTH. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WILL RESULT IN THUNDER-
STORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FAIRLY EARLY TIMING WILL HELP KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT LOW. WINDS TURN TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND INCREASE...WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOME POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT CONCERNS AT AREA
BEACHES.

THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...TAKING ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WITH IT AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
SAT THEN OFFSHORE SUN. BY NOW THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
AND FL. FOR SUN-TUE THE CA UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TO THE MID CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS TO FL AND
ELONGATES. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE STABLE DRY AND
GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BUT THEM WARM BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AT THE MOMENT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND LOCATIONS. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS
THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
TERMINALS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENT 6Z FORECAST
MAINTAINS MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LAL AND TERMINALS FROM SRQ SOUTHWARD
BUT WILL TEMPO WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS NECESSARY. AFTER FOG
LIFTS...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR
THE COAST TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. A COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND PUSH SOUTH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY WITH INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECTING RH TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT.
ERC WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL SO NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE TODAY EXPECTED TO SHIFT WELL INLAND
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  68  82  70 /   0   0  20  50
FMY  86  68  87  71 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  86  67  87  68 /  10   0  40  30
SRQ  81  66  81  70 /   0   0  10  40
BKV  84  57  85  65 /  10   0  20  50
SPG  82  70  82  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 250134 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
THE REMNANTS OF OUR PREVIOUS COLD FRONT REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. AT 500 MB...ZONAL
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. MUCH OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS DRY...BUT AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ALOFT IS A
LAYER WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FOG.

00Z TBW SOUNDING DEMONSTRATES THIS AND SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL LAYERS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
ARE INLAND AND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ACCORDING TO MOISTURE PROFILES
AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HAVE ISSUED UPDATED ZONES THIS
EVENING TO ADD MENTION OF FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES FALLING TO AT
LEAST MVFR IF NOT IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS
LINGERING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS
WINDS PICK UP AND ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN TO FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FROM
NEW YORK AND SHIFT OUR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND. CAUTION AND SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  83  66  83 /   0  10   0  20
FMY  64  86  66  87 /   0  10   0  30
GIF  65  87  65  86 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  62  80  65  81 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  58  84  58  85 /   0  10   0  20
SPG  68  82  69  81 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...88/GITTINGER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 250134 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
THE REMNANTS OF OUR PREVIOUS COLD FRONT REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. AT 500 MB...ZONAL
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. MUCH OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS DRY...BUT AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ALOFT IS A
LAYER WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FOG.

00Z TBW SOUNDING DEMONSTRATES THIS AND SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL LAYERS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
ARE INLAND AND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ACCORDING TO MOISTURE PROFILES
AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HAVE ISSUED UPDATED ZONES THIS
EVENING TO ADD MENTION OF FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES FALLING TO AT
LEAST MVFR IF NOT IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS
LINGERING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS
WINDS PICK UP AND ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN TO FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FROM
NEW YORK AND SHIFT OUR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND. CAUTION AND SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  83  66  83 /   0  10   0  20
FMY  64  86  66  87 /   0  10   0  30
GIF  65  87  65  86 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  62  80  65  81 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  58  84  58  85 /   0  10   0  20
SPG  68  82  69  81 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...88/GITTINGER






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