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000
FXUS62 KTBW 080948
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
448 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. OUR CLEAR SKIES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUR 00Z SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY WITH A PWAT VALUE NEAR A QUARTER INCH BUT WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY...ALBEIT VERY SLIGHT...AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS WITH THE LAST SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT
DEFINITELY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.

GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERWAYS. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE
SECTION BELOW. THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE LARGE BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY
RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE WE SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING. LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR US WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS
AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEEP THOSE
JACKETS HANDY AS THIS FRONT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING
MIDWEEK WILL SHIFT EAST SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SETTLING BACK
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING MIDWEEK AND SETTLE OVER FLORIDA
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A LARGE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
AREA DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TO SETUP LATE IN THE
WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT BOUT OF COLD DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING FOR KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY
AND ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BE NEAR 10 KNOTS BUT WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE ZONES WILL BE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE
GALE CONDITIONS BUT THE REMAINING WATERWAYS WONT BE TOO FAR
BEHIND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LATE EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY.
SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 10-14 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SO THE GALE WARNING FOR NOW WILL RUN THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER
THE GALE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. WHILE LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...AND ERC VALUES LOW. THEREFORE
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  49  58  45 /  20  20  10  10
FMY  65  56  65  48 /   0  20  10  10
GIF  66  45  59  42 /  10  20  10  10
SRQ  66  55  61  48 /  10  20  10  10
BKV  64  45  58  38 /  30  30  10  10
SPG  65  52  59  48 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 080149
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS FAVOR FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AND EROSION ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NOW REALLY SPUN UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS A POWERFUL OCEAN
STORM. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TAKING
ON A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE...AND THE NEAR SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXING. THIS RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
THIS SUBSIDING OF THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER LARGE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN IS
ALREADY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHILLY BUT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY
APPROACH FREEZING UP OVER LEVY COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE LATE...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FROST COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LETS
CALL IT FILTERED SUN THROUGH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY EXIT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. EVERYONE WILL BE WINDY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
WINDS...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE
BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
IS LIKELY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE
REQUIRED. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH
EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY AND
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH SOLID HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY
THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET
OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS
AND SEAS LOOKS TO LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS MEANS WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE SLOWER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  65  49  58 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  44  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  41  66  47  61 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  45  67  54  61 /   0  10  20  10
BKV  35  65  45  57 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  48  66  53  59 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 080149
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS FAVOR FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AND EROSION ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NOW REALLY SPUN UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS A POWERFUL OCEAN
STORM. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TAKING
ON A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE...AND THE NEAR SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXING. THIS RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
THIS SUBSIDING OF THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER LARGE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN IS
ALREADY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHILLY BUT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY
APPROACH FREEZING UP OVER LEVY COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE LATE...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FROST COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LETS
CALL IT FILTERED SUN THROUGH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY EXIT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. EVERYONE WILL BE WINDY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
WINDS...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE
BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
IS LIKELY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE
REQUIRED. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH
EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY AND
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH SOLID HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY
THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET
OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS
AND SEAS LOOKS TO LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS MEANS WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE SLOWER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  65  49  58 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  44  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  41  66  47  61 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  45  67  54  61 /   0  10  20  10
BKV  35  65  45  57 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  48  66  53  59 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 080149
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS FAVOR FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AND EROSION ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NOW REALLY SPUN UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS A POWERFUL OCEAN
STORM. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TAKING
ON A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE...AND THE NEAR SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXING. THIS RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
THIS SUBSIDING OF THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER LARGE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN IS
ALREADY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHILLY BUT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY
APPROACH FREEZING UP OVER LEVY COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE LATE...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FROST COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LETS
CALL IT FILTERED SUN THROUGH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY EXIT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. EVERYONE WILL BE WINDY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
WINDS...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE
BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
IS LIKELY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE
REQUIRED. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH
EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY AND
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH SOLID HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY
THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET
OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS
AND SEAS LOOKS TO LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS MEANS WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE SLOWER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  65  49  58 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  44  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  41  66  47  61 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  45  67  54  61 /   0  10  20  10
BKV  35  65  45  57 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  48  66  53  59 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 071934
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
234 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY AND MONDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE OPEN WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. WELL TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...A
LARGE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PLACING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WEST OF
THE ROCKIES SEES STRONG UPPER RIDGING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COLDER
DESPITE SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BAYS AND PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS...AND WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SETTLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE
SHOULD SEE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND PROTECTED AREAS.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS COMING IN
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE LOW 60S MOST PLACES. SUNNY SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MAINLY THE NATURE
COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DEEP DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE
STACKED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT RATHER DRY AIR BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT STILL CLEARING
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST...TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BREEZY AND RATHER COOL...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE THE COOLEST LOWS OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF LEVY
COUNTY...AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GULF WITH DRY AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A
WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY DROPPING BACK DOWN TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...BEFORE ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND
PERHAPS GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET OVER THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS LOOKS TO
LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL DRY
CONDITIONS. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOTS OF COOL DRY AIR.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SEVERAL DAYS
THIS WEEK...ERC VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...AND NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  65  49  58 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  44  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  41  66  47  61 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  45  67  54  61 /   0  10  20  10
BKV  35  65  45  57 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  48  66  53  59 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM.DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 071431
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
931 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER ALL THE GULF WATERS...

.MORNING UPDATE...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE RAPIDLY ENDING...AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH THE CLEARING OF CLOUDS...EXPECT
MIXING TO INCREASE AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SEE AN UPTICK IN WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED WAVE ACTION AT AREA BEACHES WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
MORNING...AND TO TWEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SPEEDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE
A RATHER CHILLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS DRIER
AIR IS USHERED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY
NOON...WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO
DECREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE BAYS AND PROTECTED WATERS
BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN IN
ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...USHERING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  45  64  50 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  61  44  66  54 /  30   0   0  20
GIF  58  41  67  47 /  10   0  10  20
SRQ  57  46  66  53 /  10   0  10  20
BKV  57  38  65  46 /  10   0  20  30
SPG  57  49  65  53 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 070933
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THIS WONT PUSH OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SO THE ADDED LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. STRONG
CAA ALREADY TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ALREADY
OCCURRING AREA WIDE. THIS COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULF
WATERS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SO SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. BY
AFTERNOON...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REIGN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR FLORIDIANS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WITH MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES JUST ECLIPSING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. COOLER TEMPS COMBINED
WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET SO WE SHOULD AVOID ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CONCERNS.

WE WILL WARM UP SOME ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WHICH
WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS ROBUST WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SETUP WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE COOL DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. LATE IN
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SOME WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A LITTLE OVER FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND OVER FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TO SETUP LATE IN THE
WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SKC EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. ALREADY SEEING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT  ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS ARRIVES
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN AREA WIDE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL
GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE LIKELY. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 10-12
FEET ACROSS GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. WHILE LOW HUMIDITIES MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALONG
WITH ERC VALUES...AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  45  64  50 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  61  44  66  54 /  10   0   0  20
GIF  59  41  67  47 /   0   0  10  20
SRQ  57  46  66  53 /  10   0  10  20
BKV  55  38  65  46 /  10   0  20  30
SPG  57  49  65  53 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 070223
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.

AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  60   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 / 100  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 / 100  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  70  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  50   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 070223
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.

AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  60   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 / 100  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 / 100  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  70  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  50   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 070223
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.

AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  60   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 / 100  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 / 100  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  70  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  50   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 061944
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WE REMAIN POISED TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERAL TRAILING
SHORTWAVES ACT TO CARVE OUT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S...WITH DOMINANT RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES WEST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH THE VERY STRONG UPPER FORCING
OVERSPREADING THE REGION...SHOWER ACTIVITY GOT OFF TO AN EARLIER
START THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...AND MOVED ASHORE LATE THIS MORNING...QUICKLY MOISTENING A
RATHER DRY COLUMN...AND PRECIPITATING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AN ABRUPT CHANGE WILL OCCUR. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN A RAPID TRANSLATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO OUR
EAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
IN...GENERATING WINDY CONDITIONS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...RAIN
WILL END QUICKLY TONIGHT...REPLACED WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE 50S SUNDAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR FILLING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DESCEND THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH LOWS
EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER
THE NATURE COAST TO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON IFR/LIFR CIGS...THESE HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE. IT DOES APPEAR AS COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN AT
THE SURFACE...THAT SOME LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR IN THE 10Z TO
12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTIONARY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS...AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TO THE EAST.
THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BAY AND PROTECTED WATERS WILL
ALSO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK...CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW HUMIDITIES WITH THE DRIER
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL...AND ERC VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  30   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 /  60  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 /  60  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  40  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  40   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 060855
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALIGNED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN... MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND
SPAWN A COASTAL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW... THIS WILL SET
UP AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION TODAY WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
THAT BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 925 AND 850 MB WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM FLORIDA QUICKLY BUT WILL PULL DOWN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
OVER THE PENINSULA SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.


.MID TERM/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. BREEZY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETUP BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MORE COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. LATE IN
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SOME WITH
HEIGHTS RISING OVER FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SETTING UP ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY LOWER WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
CLEARING FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE WINDS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IF ANY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
AGAIN WILL LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  40  40  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  40  50  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...03/PAXTON
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 060143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
FORMS A STEEP LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BEFORE
DIVING QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO A SHARP PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW THEN
FINALLY RIDGES BACK UP INTO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF
STORMINESS EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
MID-SECTION THE COUNTY WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST CHANGING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE STATE. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WE FIND A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING SATURDAY AND ARRIVE OVER OUR HEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE WARMER BAROCLINIC WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY MIGRATE
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE BECOMING QUITE
A LARGE AND POTENT OCEAN STORM DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE ON
SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR AREA SATURDAY BELOW...
BUT FIRST LETS LOOK AT THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE ATMOSPHERE SURE HAS DRIED OUT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE CROSSED THE REGION LAST NIGHT. PW VALUES
LAST NIGHT WERE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NOW
ARE RUNNING NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING THIS EVENING
CAME IN WITH AN EXTREMELY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.15". THIS IS
PRETTY DRAMATIC GIVEN THAT THE 10TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DATE
IS AROUND 0.40". THIS IS A VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE UNDER ANY
CIRCUMSTANCES. VIEWING THE SOUNDING CONFIRMS THE PW NUMBERS WITH
VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
COLUMN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
PROFILE AND NO SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF...THAT OUR SKIES ARE
CLEAR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS DOWN OVER FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH A GENERAL MOISTURE SURGE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN-FREE FOR ALL ZONES
WITH SEASONABLE COOL TEMPS.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF DURING
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD
OVER AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS
DRY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...THE MORE
ROBUST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/DEEP LAYER QG FORCING AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH SOME
FAIRLY HEALTHY DYNAMICS FOR LIFT...THE MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAVORABLE. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMICS MIGHT NORMALLY SUGGEST A HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT...THIS
ONE IS LIKELY TO NOT LIVE UP TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERING
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR ZONES
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATE IN THE DAY / EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. AS THIS LOW WRAPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM
BRINGING DRIER AIR BACK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON GUSTY WINDS.

BY SUNDAY THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM WILL BE EXITING AWAY FROM
THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH A DRY...COOL...AND BREEZY
DAY ON TAP TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
CIGS BETWEEN 3-5KFT BY DAWN...ESPECIALLY FOR KPGD/KFMY/FRSW. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR 2-3KFT CIGS WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS RESTRICTIONS ARE LOWER BUT
SEEM OVERDONE FOR THE PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AGAIN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  47  64  46  58 /  10  30  30  10
FMY  52  72  51  61 /  10  40  50  10
GIF  49  68  45  59 /  10  40  50  10
SRQ  49  65  50  58 /  10  40  30  10
BKV  43  63  41  58 /  10  30  40  10
SPG  50  63  49  57 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
UPPER AIR/DATA QUALITY CONTROL...DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 051957
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
257 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG DYNAMIC SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RECOVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST... HOWEVER 85H WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING
AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SO THE CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  AS THE
STRONG U/L ENERGY OVERRIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/W WILL SQUEEZE OUT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF STRATIFIED LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
NEARER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. STRONG MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BENEATH LOW
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. INTERIOR AREAS...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A LARGE DOMINANT UPPER CYCLONE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DOMINANT UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SEVERAL FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH INTRUSIONS OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR. WHILE
THESE WILL MAINLY BE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES...AT LEAST A SLIM CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A COOL DRY PATTERN WILL ENSUE...WITH A
FAIR CHANCE OF FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHERN FLORIDA MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS 035-040 OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RSW/FMY/PGD AROUND
MIDNIGHT...HOLDING OFF AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS UNTIL 08-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF FLORIDA WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS AGAIN LIKELY INCREASING ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  47  64  46  58 /  10  30  30  10
FMY  52  72  51  61 /  10  40  50  10
GIF  49  68  45  59 /  10  40  50  10
SRQ  49  65  50  58 /  10  40  30  10
BKV  43  63  41  58 /  10  30  40  10
SPG  50  63  49  57 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...84/AUSTIN
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 051502
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1002 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEXT
STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  46  61  45 /   0   0  30  30
FMY  66  52  65  49 /   0  10  50  40
GIF  61  47  64  45 /   0  10  40  30
SRQ  61  47  61  48 /   0   0  40  30
BKV  59  42  60  40 /   0  10  30  30
SPG  60  49  61  48 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN





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