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000
FXUS62 KTBW 220922
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL BE GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY WITH LOTS
OF UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC RESULTS IN DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THE TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TREKS EASTWARD WED
AND EXITS TO THE ATLANTIC BY DAY BREAK THU. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE... ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED.

DURING THE DAY THU DEEP RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FRI...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE...UP
THROUGH SAT.

THEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS HAS A MODEST
LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE LOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE GULF. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE
TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BOTH MODELS TRACK THESE FEATURES
EASTWARD DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 040-060 ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AND CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. IT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  66  78  69 /  40  20  30  40
FMY  82  66  83  69 /  20  10  10  20
GIF  81  64  81  67 /  40  20  30  40
SRQ  79  66  79  69 /  30  10  20  30
BKV  78  64  79  68 /  60  30  30  50
SPG  77  66  77  68 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 220922
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL BE GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY WITH LOTS
OF UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC RESULTS IN DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THE TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TREKS EASTWARD WED
AND EXITS TO THE ATLANTIC BY DAY BREAK THU. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE... ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED.

DURING THE DAY THU DEEP RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FRI...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE...UP
THROUGH SAT.

THEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS HAS A MODEST
LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE LOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE GULF. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE
TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BOTH MODELS TRACK THESE FEATURES
EASTWARD DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 040-060 ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AND CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. IT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  66  78  69 /  40  20  30  40
FMY  82  66  83  69 /  20  10  10  20
GIF  81  64  81  67 /  40  20  30  40
SRQ  79  66  79  69 /  30  10  20  30
BKV  78  64  79  68 /  60  30  30  50
SPG  77  66  77  68 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 220243
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD.
A 100-KNOT UPPER JET IS PRESENT AS NOTED IN THE KTBW SOUNDING FROM
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
BASICALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WILL ALSO LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS...EXPECTING SEA FOG TO STAY OUT OF TAMPA BAY ITSELF BUT
SOME FOG OVER THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE SO FAR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM KSRQ
NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS
NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA
FOG STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST-WEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE ROUGH AND CHOPPY HAZARDOUS SEAS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  66  79 /  70  60  20  40
FMY  66  78  67  82 /  30  10  20  20
GIF  64  77  65  81 /  60  50  20  30
SRQ  66  75  65  80 /  50  40  20  30
BKV  65  76  64  80 /  80  70  30  40
SPG  66  74  66  78 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 220243
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD.
A 100-KNOT UPPER JET IS PRESENT AS NOTED IN THE KTBW SOUNDING FROM
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
BASICALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WILL ALSO LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS...EXPECTING SEA FOG TO STAY OUT OF TAMPA BAY ITSELF BUT
SOME FOG OVER THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE SO FAR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM KSRQ
NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS
NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA
FOG STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST-WEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE ROUGH AND CHOPPY HAZARDOUS SEAS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  66  79 /  70  60  20  40
FMY  66  78  67  82 /  30  10  20  20
GIF  64  77  65  81 /  60  50  20  30
SRQ  66  75  65  80 /  50  40  20  30
BKV  65  76  64  80 /  80  70  30  40
SPG  66  74  66  78 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 220243
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD.
A 100-KNOT UPPER JET IS PRESENT AS NOTED IN THE KTBW SOUNDING FROM
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
BASICALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WILL ALSO LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS...EXPECTING SEA FOG TO STAY OUT OF TAMPA BAY ITSELF BUT
SOME FOG OVER THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE SO FAR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM KSRQ
NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS
NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA
FOG STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST-WEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE ROUGH AND CHOPPY HAZARDOUS SEAS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  66  79 /  70  60  20  40
FMY  66  78  67  82 /  30  10  20  20
GIF  64  77  65  81 /  60  50  20  30
SRQ  66  75  65  80 /  50  40  20  30
BKV  65  76  64  80 /  80  70  30  40
SPG  66  74  66  78 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 220243
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD.
A 100-KNOT UPPER JET IS PRESENT AS NOTED IN THE KTBW SOUNDING FROM
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
BASICALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WILL ALSO LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS...EXPECTING SEA FOG TO STAY OUT OF TAMPA BAY ITSELF BUT
SOME FOG OVER THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE SO FAR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM KSRQ
NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS
NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA
FOG STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST-WEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE ROUGH AND CHOPPY HAZARDOUS SEAS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  66  79 /  70  60  20  40
FMY  66  78  67  82 /  30  10  20  20
GIF  64  77  65  81 /  60  50  20  30
SRQ  66  75  65  80 /  50  40  20  30
BKV  65  76  64  80 /  80  70  30  40
SPG  66  74  66  78 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 212009
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS BEING DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALREADY...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE GULF WEST OF TAMPA BAY...WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE NATURE
COAST. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CONTINUING TO
MOISTENING UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. ENOUGH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST...AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN MOST EXTENTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

APART FROM THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG ALONG THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH DEW POINTS MOVE OVER THE COOLER WATERS.
SEA FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AND ALONG THE MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTY
COASTLINES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN TODAY UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING RAIN.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. MOVING EAST DURING THE WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
ON TRACK. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE...WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS LEVY AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. BIGGEST PROBLEM COULD
BE THE SEA FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS SEA FOG SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG LEVY COUNTY WHERE WINDS WOULD BE
ONSHORE SOME. OVER LAND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREADING EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS GIVING VARYING SCENARIOS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS FAR AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING...BUT EITHER WAY IT SHOULD NOT
BE THAT STRONG AND THEREFORE NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE AS SHOWERS MOVE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY AS FAR SOUTH AS
KPGD. ADDITIONALLY...BRIEF PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY NEAR KLAL AND KPGD.

&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA
FOG STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST-WEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE ROUGH AND CHOPPY HAZARDOUS SEAS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS OVER THE
NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. SEA FOG MOVING ASHORE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  66  79 /  70  60  20  40
FMY  66  78  67  82 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  64  77  65  81 /  60  50  20  30
SRQ  66  75  65  80 /  50  40  20  30
BKV  65  76  64  80 /  80  70  30  40
SPG  65  73  66  77 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 211458
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH NATURE COAST AND ADJACENT
GULF WATERS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM KTBW AND NEIGHBORING SITES SHOW THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF A COUPLE DEGREES. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
SPREAD SOUTH TO AT LEAST AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A FEW
TICKS OF LIGHTNING HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND
WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.

OTHER THAN ADDING IN ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POINT AND CLICK FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED...AND ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE AS SHOWERS MOVE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KPGD. ADDITIONALLY...BRIEF PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY NEAR KLAL
AND KPGD.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND FROM THE NORTHEAST ON ITS
NORTHERN SIDE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF TAMPA BAY TODAY WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS FOR MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS NEAR SCA
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  66  76  66 /  40  70  50  20
FMY  80  65  78  66 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  79  64  77  64 /  40  60  50  20
SRQ  77  65  76  65 /  30  50  40  20
BKV  77  64  77  64 /  50  80  70  30
SPG  75  65  74  66 /  40  70  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 211458
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH NATURE COAST AND ADJACENT
GULF WATERS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM KTBW AND NEIGHBORING SITES SHOW THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF A COUPLE DEGREES. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
SPREAD SOUTH TO AT LEAST AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A FEW
TICKS OF LIGHTNING HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND
WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.

OTHER THAN ADDING IN ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POINT AND CLICK FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED...AND ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE AS SHOWERS MOVE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KPGD. ADDITIONALLY...BRIEF PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY NEAR KLAL
AND KPGD.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND FROM THE NORTHEAST ON ITS
NORTHERN SIDE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF TAMPA BAY TODAY WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS FOR MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS NEAR SCA
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  66  76  66 /  40  70  50  20
FMY  80  65  78  66 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  79  64  77  64 /  40  60  50  20
SRQ  77  65  76  65 /  30  50  40  20
BKV  77  64  77  64 /  50  80  70  30
SPG  75  65  74  66 /  40  70  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 210807
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DOWN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WATCHING A
BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTERACT
WITH A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SAME REGION TO BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...FOR
MOST OF US...THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MUCH LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...AND WILL DISCUSS IN MORE DETAIL WITHIN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION BELOW.

FURTHER UPSTREAM WE SEE STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY ARRIVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IT WILL BE THIS ENERGY THAT EVOLVES INTO A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN AMPLIFICATION/DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFYING
TROUGH...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALSO
PROGGED TO UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO THIS
MORNING WITHIN ONLY A COUPLE SHORT DAYS.

LOWER LEVELS...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE
SOUTH IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE TO
THE WEST. THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
THE 295-305K SURFACES...AND WE CAN SEE MORE AND MORE LOWER/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS UPGLIDE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH DECENT SURFACE FOCUS. REGIONAL RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/NE GULF AS A
RESULT. SO FAR...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT WILL SEE A TENDENCY FOR THE SHOWERS TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE NATURE COAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY MORNING AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTENING AS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE UPGLIDE WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND ANY ADDED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WILL BRING A
LOW SHOWER CHANCE INTO LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
ELSEWHERE POPS WILL BE 10% OR LESS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF SUN WILL EXIST SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INCREASE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS...AND BY LATE IN THE
DAY...THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE AND A DEVELOPING
FAVORABLE RRQ COUPLED JET PATTERN ALOFT TO PRODUCE INCREASING
SHOWERS COVERAGE INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. NWP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIFTING
FEATURES...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT QPF PATTERNS. THE
NAM CONTINUE TO BE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE BEST LIFT...WHILE THE
GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF SHOW BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE SOUTHWARD
INTO WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NEW 21/03Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH DECENT QPF NOW DOWN TO THE I-4
CORRIDOR. SO...AS SEEMS TO OFTEN BE THE CASE...THE MOST UNCERTAINTY
IN THE RAIN PROBABILITY FORECAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THE TIGHTEST POP GRADIENT
WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION. WILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ANYWHERE NORTH OF I-4...WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY
REGION...AND THEN QUICKLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WITH RESPECT TO THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE GONE WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST DOWN TO SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.

THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
GFS DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE. MANY OF THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AND RAMPING UP QPF AMOUNTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR TO
EXIST FOR SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AFTER 00Z FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. DUE TO THE INCREASED SYNOPTIC
LIFT IN THIS REGION (NORTH OF I-4) AND SHOWALTER INDICES AT OR BELOW
ZERO HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

MONDAY...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE FORECAST
FROM TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WE SEE NOT ONLY THE
UPPER JET POSITION BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...BUT ALSO APPEARS THE LOW
LEVEL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
AND REACH AT LEAST THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND A DECREASE IN SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER IN NATURE. RAMP
DOWN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...AND REMOVE ALL MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS (EVEN FOR THE NATURE COAST) BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE ACTUALLY LOOKING LESS AND LESS AS TIME GOES ALONG SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY FOR MONDAY. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUN TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS GOING TO BE
VERY HIGH AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE 80S MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD. TEMPS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
HELD IN THE 70S FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD DUE TO MORE SHOWER AND
CLOUD POTENTIAL LATER INTO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE UPPER
LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE MID CONUS MOVES EAST AND OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE THEN CROSSING FL WED. FOR THU
INTO SAT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND SHIFTS
OVER THE STATE TO ATLANTIC WATERS. DURING SAT A SECOND LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A BIT LESS ROBUST THIS TIME...SLIDES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST STATES BY SUN WITH A COLD FRONT
SAGGING INTO FL.

THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF THEN FL TUE AND WED. EXPECT AREAS OF SEA FOG TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING TUE...AND POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...AS
LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS IN DURING THU AND FRI
AS THE RIDGING MOVES BY. AS NOTED ABOVE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS
WEAKER AND WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ACROSS THE NORTH SAT THEN SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES SUN. TEMPERATURES START OFF ABOVE NORMAL THEN
COOL THROUGH THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND
NORMAL BY SUN. WINDS INCREASE INTO EXERCISE CAUTION/ADVISORY SPEEDS
LATE TUE AND WED AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS HINTING OUT SOME FOG POTENTIAL FOR
KLAL/KPGD...THINKING THE CURRENT CLOUDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFTING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR MAINLY KSRQ TO KTPA AND KLAL.
THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND FROM THE NORTHEAST
ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE. AREAS OF SHOWERS/RAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF THE MARINE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TAMPA BAY
TODAY...SHOWERS REACHING FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS FOR MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A TIME. WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DECREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...HOWEVER...
THE SEA FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND EXTEND
FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONCE FOG DEVELOPS IT IS
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. THE FOG IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL FOR ALL ZONES IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER WEATHER
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEE AREAS OF SEA FOG MOVE ASHORE...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  66  76  66 /  40  70  50  20
FMY  80  65  78  66 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  79  64  77  64 /  40  60  50  20
SRQ  77  65  76  65 /  30  50  40  20
BKV  77  64  77  64 /  50  80  70  30
SPG  76  65  74  66 /  40  70  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 210807
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DOWN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WATCHING A
BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTERACT
WITH A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SAME REGION TO BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...FOR
MOST OF US...THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MUCH LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...AND WILL DISCUSS IN MORE DETAIL WITHIN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION BELOW.

FURTHER UPSTREAM WE SEE STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY ARRIVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IT WILL BE THIS ENERGY THAT EVOLVES INTO A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN AMPLIFICATION/DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFYING
TROUGH...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALSO
PROGGED TO UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO THIS
MORNING WITHIN ONLY A COUPLE SHORT DAYS.

LOWER LEVELS...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE
SOUTH IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE TO
THE WEST. THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
THE 295-305K SURFACES...AND WE CAN SEE MORE AND MORE LOWER/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS UPGLIDE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH DECENT SURFACE FOCUS. REGIONAL RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/NE GULF AS A
RESULT. SO FAR...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT WILL SEE A TENDENCY FOR THE SHOWERS TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE NATURE COAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY MORNING AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTENING AS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE UPGLIDE WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND ANY ADDED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WILL BRING A
LOW SHOWER CHANCE INTO LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
ELSEWHERE POPS WILL BE 10% OR LESS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF SUN WILL EXIST SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INCREASE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS...AND BY LATE IN THE
DAY...THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE AND A DEVELOPING
FAVORABLE RRQ COUPLED JET PATTERN ALOFT TO PRODUCE INCREASING
SHOWERS COVERAGE INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. NWP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIFTING
FEATURES...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT QPF PATTERNS. THE
NAM CONTINUE TO BE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE BEST LIFT...WHILE THE
GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF SHOW BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE SOUTHWARD
INTO WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NEW 21/03Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH DECENT QPF NOW DOWN TO THE I-4
CORRIDOR. SO...AS SEEMS TO OFTEN BE THE CASE...THE MOST UNCERTAINTY
IN THE RAIN PROBABILITY FORECAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THE TIGHTEST POP GRADIENT
WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION. WILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ANYWHERE NORTH OF I-4...WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY
REGION...AND THEN QUICKLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WITH RESPECT TO THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE GONE WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST DOWN TO SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.

THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
GFS DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE. MANY OF THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AND RAMPING UP QPF AMOUNTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR TO
EXIST FOR SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AFTER 00Z FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. DUE TO THE INCREASED SYNOPTIC
LIFT IN THIS REGION (NORTH OF I-4) AND SHOWALTER INDICES AT OR BELOW
ZERO HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

MONDAY...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE FORECAST
FROM TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WE SEE NOT ONLY THE
UPPER JET POSITION BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...BUT ALSO APPEARS THE LOW
LEVEL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
AND REACH AT LEAST THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND A DECREASE IN SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER IN NATURE. RAMP
DOWN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...AND REMOVE ALL MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS (EVEN FOR THE NATURE COAST) BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE ACTUALLY LOOKING LESS AND LESS AS TIME GOES ALONG SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY FOR MONDAY. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUN TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS GOING TO BE
VERY HIGH AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE 80S MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD. TEMPS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
HELD IN THE 70S FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD DUE TO MORE SHOWER AND
CLOUD POTENTIAL LATER INTO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE UPPER
LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE MID CONUS MOVES EAST AND OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE THEN CROSSING FL WED. FOR THU
INTO SAT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND SHIFTS
OVER THE STATE TO ATLANTIC WATERS. DURING SAT A SECOND LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A BIT LESS ROBUST THIS TIME...SLIDES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST STATES BY SUN WITH A COLD FRONT
SAGGING INTO FL.

THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF THEN FL TUE AND WED. EXPECT AREAS OF SEA FOG TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING TUE...AND POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...AS
LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS IN DURING THU AND FRI
AS THE RIDGING MOVES BY. AS NOTED ABOVE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS
WEAKER AND WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ACROSS THE NORTH SAT THEN SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES SUN. TEMPERATURES START OFF ABOVE NORMAL THEN
COOL THROUGH THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND
NORMAL BY SUN. WINDS INCREASE INTO EXERCISE CAUTION/ADVISORY SPEEDS
LATE TUE AND WED AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS HINTING OUT SOME FOG POTENTIAL FOR
KLAL/KPGD...THINKING THE CURRENT CLOUDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFTING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR MAINLY KSRQ TO KTPA AND KLAL.
THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND FROM THE NORTHEAST
ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE. AREAS OF SHOWERS/RAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF THE MARINE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TAMPA BAY
TODAY...SHOWERS REACHING FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS FOR MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A TIME. WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DECREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...HOWEVER...
THE SEA FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND EXTEND
FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONCE FOG DEVELOPS IT IS
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. THE FOG IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL FOR ALL ZONES IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER WEATHER
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEE AREAS OF SEA FOG MOVE ASHORE...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  66  76  66 /  40  70  50  20
FMY  80  65  78  66 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  79  64  77  64 /  40  60  50  20
SRQ  77  65  76  65 /  30  50  40  20
BKV  77  64  77  64 /  50  80  70  30
SPG  76  65  74  66 /  40  70  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 210244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN DEPICTING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION...MOST OF WHICH HAS LIKELY NOT REACHED
THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS DID EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
EARLIER. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FOR OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT THE MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT FORECAST MVFR CIGS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW...BUT THIS COULD VERY WELL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE FOG POTENTIAL AT KLAL AND KPGD.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT KPGD HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...BUT HAVE
MENTIONED AT BOTH SITES STARTING AROUND 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT E/NE WINDS. THIS
STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS AS
WELL AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  75  65  76 /  10  30  60  50
FMY  62  79  65  80 /   0  10  30  30
GIF  60  77  63  77 /  10  20  60  50
SRQ  61  75  65  76 /  10  20  50  40
BKV  56  76  62  77 /  10  40  70  60
SPG  63  74  65  75 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 210244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN DEPICTING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION...MOST OF WHICH HAS LIKELY NOT REACHED
THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS DID EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
EARLIER. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FOR OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT THE MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT FORECAST MVFR CIGS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW...BUT THIS COULD VERY WELL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE FOG POTENTIAL AT KLAL AND KPGD.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT KPGD HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...BUT HAVE
MENTIONED AT BOTH SITES STARTING AROUND 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT E/NE WINDS. THIS
STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS AS
WELL AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  75  65  76 /  10  30  60  50
FMY  62  79  65  80 /   0  10  30  30
GIF  60  77  63  77 /  10  20  60  50
SRQ  61  75  65  76 /  10  20  50  40
BKV  56  76  62  77 /  10  40  70  60
SPG  63  74  65  75 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 202023
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALREADY TODAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
ARE MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST. THROUGH TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE JET STREAK SINKS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE...THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WILL MAKE FOG FORMATION DIFFICULT...THOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT CLOSE TO SUNRISE. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NATURE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETS UP IN THE MID LEVELS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AND
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH INTO
TAMPA BAY. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS MOVING OVER
COOLER GULF WATERS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE PINELLAS COUNTY COAST NORTH ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. MOVING EAST DURING THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
BETWEEN THE MODELS. OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA REMAINS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA LEADING TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...70-90
PERCENT...FOR THE NATURE COAST TAPERING DOWN TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND THEN 60 PERCENT FAR NORTH TO 30 PERCENT
SOUTH ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
ALONG WITH THE THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY SO WE STILL COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
IS WHERE THE WEATHER FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING AS THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VARYING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED FEATURES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ACROSS THE
REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUD
BASES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG MOSTLY NEAR KLAL AND KPGD.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG SQUALL LINE PRECEDING IT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  75  65  76 /  10  30  60  50
FMY  62  79  65  80 /   0  10  30  30
GIF  60  77  63  77 /  10  20  60  50
SRQ  61  75  65  76 /  10  20  50  40
BKV  56  76  62  77 /  10  40  70  60
SPG  63  73  65  75 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 202023
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALREADY TODAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
ARE MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST. THROUGH TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE JET STREAK SINKS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE...THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WILL MAKE FOG FORMATION DIFFICULT...THOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT CLOSE TO SUNRISE. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NATURE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETS UP IN THE MID LEVELS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AND
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH INTO
TAMPA BAY. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS MOVING OVER
COOLER GULF WATERS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE PINELLAS COUNTY COAST NORTH ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. MOVING EAST DURING THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
BETWEEN THE MODELS. OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA REMAINS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA LEADING TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...70-90
PERCENT...FOR THE NATURE COAST TAPERING DOWN TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND THEN 60 PERCENT FAR NORTH TO 30 PERCENT
SOUTH ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
ALONG WITH THE THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY SO WE STILL COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
IS WHERE THE WEATHER FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING AS THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VARYING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED FEATURES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ACROSS THE
REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUD
BASES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG MOSTLY NEAR KLAL AND KPGD.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG SQUALL LINE PRECEDING IT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  75  65  76 /  10  30  60  50
FMY  62  79  65  80 /   0  10  30  30
GIF  60  77  63  77 /  10  20  60  50
SRQ  61  75  65  76 /  10  20  50  40
BKV  56  76  62  77 /  10  40  70  60
SPG  63  73  65  75 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 201444
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AS A JET STREAK SPREADS OUT TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WHILE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS A WEAK AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REMAINING PATCHY FOG THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS ALL
BUT DISSIPATED...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM UP NICELY
INTO THE 70S...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THAT WILL BEGIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF RAKES ACROSS FLORIDA...AND WILL CONTINUE UNDER BUILDING
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR ANY
TAF STIES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  62  76  65 /   0  10  30  50
FMY  79  61  79  64 /   0   0  10  30
GIF  76  60  77  63 /   0  10  20  50
SRQ  75  60  77  64 /   0  10  30  40
BKV  75  56  77  62 /   0  10  40  60
SPG  74  62  74  64 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE








000
FXUS62 KTBW 201444
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AS A JET STREAK SPREADS OUT TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WHILE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS A WEAK AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REMAINING PATCHY FOG THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS ALL
BUT DISSIPATED...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM UP NICELY
INTO THE 70S...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THAT WILL BEGIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF RAKES ACROSS FLORIDA...AND WILL CONTINUE UNDER BUILDING
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR ANY
TAF STIES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  62  76  65 /   0  10  30  50
FMY  79  61  79  64 /   0   0  10  30
GIF  76  60  77  63 /   0  10  20  50
SRQ  75  60  77  64 /   0  10  30  40
BKV  75  56  77  62 /   0  10  40  60
SPG  74  62  74  64 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200841
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE THIS WEEKEND WITH AS MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS WE HAVE MODELS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE LOOKS
SIMILAR IN EACH MODEL...BUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPICTION IS
ANYTHING BUT SIMILAR.

FOR TODAY AT LEAST...THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS HARMLESSLY
BY TO OUR NORTH LEAVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANER OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OUT WEST. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80
DEGREES FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OVER-RUN OUR COOLER
LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN A LOWERING AND THICKENING OF CLOUDS AND EVEN
THE ONSET OF OVER-RUNNING RAINS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SO BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THERE. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING OVER LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREA SHOULD RESULT IN STEADIER/MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS...BUT BELIEVE MOST OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO NEAR
50 KNOTS AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE PICTURE. AT THIS TIME I
CHOSE TO LEAVE OUR VERY SOUTHERN AREAS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IF THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HOLDS TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW DESPITE
THE FACT THAT WE ARE ONLY 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH PASSING ENERGY/SHORTWAVE ALOFT. BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS BECOMING AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF A WET PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF ENSEMBLE ALL
SUGGESTING THE BEST LIFT AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. IN THIS CASE...AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WOULD
SUGGEST LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER...THIS MAKES FOR
LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL ERROR SHOULD SOMETHING LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFY.

FOR NOW...THIS IS THE FORECAST AND WE ARE STICKING TO IT (FOR THE
MOMENT). AS THE UPPER ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...THE SURFACE FOCUS INCREASES INTO THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA...AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET INDUCES AN ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE RESPONSE ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NATURE COAST BY LATER SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS ONE HEADS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT AND EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...LEAVING THE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE LOST THE UPPER SUPPORT...THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION DURING THIS TIME...BUT RATHER A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND "OFF
AND ON" LIGHT SHOWERS SITUATION. GOING TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES MUCH
LOWER IN THE 20-40% RANGE FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD AS
THERE SIMPLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LIFTING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK. DURING TUESDAY WILL BE WATCHING A SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SWING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ORGANIZES AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC FORCING SPREADING EASTWARD...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING UPGLIDE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH STRUCTURE...BUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING
45-55KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS PLENTY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET (DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL
OF CHOICE)...COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. ONE
ISSUE WE CAN SEE LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE FIELDS IS THE AMOUNT OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.
THIS AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL RELEASE QUITE A BIT OF LATENT HEAT
INTO THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...AND FURTHER HINDER POTENTIAL
UPDRAFTS IN AN ALREADY MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP...BUT IT REQUIRES
MONITORING.

COLD FRONT AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE END OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...BUT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN TROUGH EVOLUTION RESULT IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE TO
SIDE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER JUST YET...WILL USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT. OF NOTE
THOUGH...IF THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WAS TO
VERIFY...THEN THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE THURSDAY MORNING FOR COLD
AIR STRATUS TO STREAM OFF THE GULF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO SHOW TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES AT PGD THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD NOT BE TOO BAD FOR BOATERS WITH SOME
DETERIORATION NOTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND...BUT AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
AND MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY SEA FOG FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD.

RAIN CHANCES AND SOME SEA FOG WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AS TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY AND REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND QUICKLY...RISING FROM 4 FEET OR SO TUESDAY TO 7
FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLIMBING TO 10 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  62  76  65 /   0  10  30  50
FMY  79  61  79  64 /   0   0  10  30
GIF  76  60  77  63 /   0  10  20  50
SRQ  75  60  77  64 /   0  10  30  40
BKV  75  56  77  62 /   0  10  40  60
SPG  74  62  75  64 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 200841
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE THIS WEEKEND WITH AS MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS WE HAVE MODELS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE LOOKS
SIMILAR IN EACH MODEL...BUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPICTION IS
ANYTHING BUT SIMILAR.

FOR TODAY AT LEAST...THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS HARMLESSLY
BY TO OUR NORTH LEAVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANER OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OUT WEST. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80
DEGREES FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OVER-RUN OUR COOLER
LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN A LOWERING AND THICKENING OF CLOUDS AND EVEN
THE ONSET OF OVER-RUNNING RAINS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SO BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THERE. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING OVER LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREA SHOULD RESULT IN STEADIER/MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS...BUT BELIEVE MOST OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO NEAR
50 KNOTS AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE PICTURE. AT THIS TIME I
CHOSE TO LEAVE OUR VERY SOUTHERN AREAS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IF THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HOLDS TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW DESPITE
THE FACT THAT WE ARE ONLY 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH PASSING ENERGY/SHORTWAVE ALOFT. BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS BECOMING AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF A WET PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF ENSEMBLE ALL
SUGGESTING THE BEST LIFT AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. IN THIS CASE...AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WOULD
SUGGEST LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER...THIS MAKES FOR
LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL ERROR SHOULD SOMETHING LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFY.

FOR NOW...THIS IS THE FORECAST AND WE ARE STICKING TO IT (FOR THE
MOMENT). AS THE UPPER ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...THE SURFACE FOCUS INCREASES INTO THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA...AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET INDUCES AN ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE RESPONSE ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NATURE COAST BY LATER SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS ONE HEADS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT AND EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...LEAVING THE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE LOST THE UPPER SUPPORT...THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION DURING THIS TIME...BUT RATHER A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND "OFF
AND ON" LIGHT SHOWERS SITUATION. GOING TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES MUCH
LOWER IN THE 20-40% RANGE FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD AS
THERE SIMPLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LIFTING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK. DURING TUESDAY WILL BE WATCHING A SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SWING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ORGANIZES AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC FORCING SPREADING EASTWARD...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING UPGLIDE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH STRUCTURE...BUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING
45-55KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS PLENTY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET (DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL
OF CHOICE)...COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. ONE
ISSUE WE CAN SEE LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE FIELDS IS THE AMOUNT OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.
THIS AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL RELEASE QUITE A BIT OF LATENT HEAT
INTO THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...AND FURTHER HINDER POTENTIAL
UPDRAFTS IN AN ALREADY MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP...BUT IT REQUIRES
MONITORING.

COLD FRONT AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE END OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...BUT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN TROUGH EVOLUTION RESULT IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE TO
SIDE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER JUST YET...WILL USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT. OF NOTE
THOUGH...IF THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WAS TO
VERIFY...THEN THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE THURSDAY MORNING FOR COLD
AIR STRATUS TO STREAM OFF THE GULF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO SHOW TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES AT PGD THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD NOT BE TOO BAD FOR BOATERS WITH SOME
DETERIORATION NOTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND...BUT AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
AND MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY SEA FOG FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD.

RAIN CHANCES AND SOME SEA FOG WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AS TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY AND REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND QUICKLY...RISING FROM 4 FEET OR SO TUESDAY TO 7
FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLIMBING TO 10 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  62  76  65 /   0  10  30  50
FMY  79  61  79  64 /   0   0  10  30
GIF  76  60  77  63 /   0  10  20  50
SRQ  75  60  77  64 /   0  10  30  40
BKV  75  56  77  62 /   0  10  40  60
SPG  74  62  75  64 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THIS AND HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN250 IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS PATCHY GROUND FOG THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FOG
THOUGH BRIEF LOWER PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THIS AND HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN250 IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS PATCHY GROUND FOG THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FOG
THOUGH BRIEF LOWER PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 200150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THIS AND HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN250 IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS PATCHY GROUND FOG THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FOG
THOUGH BRIEF LOWER PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 192001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGH
CLOUDS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND LOWER TO MID
50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE TX/LA COAST WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A VEERING FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A SLOW MOISTENING
OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE A
DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEVELOPING VORT MAX IN THE RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT
WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...WHICH WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING SURFACE DEW POINTS UP TO THE LOW
70S...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PINELLAS COUNTY
COASTLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY WINDS
OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSLATE TO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
(BEST CHANCES AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) BETWEEN 09-13Z
SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA
200 WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES AFTER 01Z TONIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LOW DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  75  62  76 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  54  76  60  77 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  55  74  60  76 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  47  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  59  73  62  75 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...74/WYNN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 192001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGH
CLOUDS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND LOWER TO MID
50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE TX/LA COAST WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A VEERING FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A SLOW MOISTENING
OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE A
DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEVELOPING VORT MAX IN THE RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT
WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...WHICH WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING SURFACE DEW POINTS UP TO THE LOW
70S...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PINELLAS COUNTY
COASTLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY WINDS
OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSLATE TO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
(BEST CHANCES AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) BETWEEN 09-13Z
SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA
200 WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES AFTER 01Z TONIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LOW DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  75  62  76 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  54  76  60  77 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  55  74  60  76 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  47  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  59  73  62  75 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...74/WYNN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 192001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGH
CLOUDS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND LOWER TO MID
50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE TX/LA COAST WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A VEERING FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A SLOW MOISTENING
OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE A
DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEVELOPING VORT MAX IN THE RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT
WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...WHICH WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING SURFACE DEW POINTS UP TO THE LOW
70S...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PINELLAS COUNTY
COASTLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY WINDS
OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSLATE TO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
(BEST CHANCES AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) BETWEEN 09-13Z
SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA
200 WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES AFTER 01Z TONIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LOW DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  75  62  76 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  54  76  60  77 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  55  74  60  76 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  47  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  59  73  62  75 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...74/WYNN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 192001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGH
CLOUDS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND LOWER TO MID
50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE TX/LA COAST WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A VEERING FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A SLOW MOISTENING
OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE A
DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEVELOPING VORT MAX IN THE RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT
WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...WHICH WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING SURFACE DEW POINTS UP TO THE LOW
70S...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PINELLAS COUNTY
COASTLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY WINDS
OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSLATE TO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
(BEST CHANCES AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) BETWEEN 09-13Z
SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA
200 WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES AFTER 01Z TONIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO INCREASES THE WINDS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LOW DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  75  62  76 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  54  76  60  77 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  55  74  60  76 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  47  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  59  73  62  75 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...74/WYNN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 191416
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
916 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF TODAY RESULTING IN PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THICKEST...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MORNING
UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-13Z SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE VFR WITH
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 200 WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AFTER 19Z...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. ON
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 191416
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
916 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF TODAY RESULTING IN PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THICKEST...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MORNING
UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-13Z SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE VFR WITH
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 200 WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AFTER 19Z...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. ON
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







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