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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. A TRIO OF JET STREAKS WILL DETERMINE THE
FATE OF THIS UPPER LOW WHICH WILL INEVITABLY IMPACT THE WEATHER
ACROSS FLORIDA. AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK ENTERING MONTANA UPSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW ... COMBINED WITH A 100 KNOT STREAK STRETCHING
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ... AND A 120 KNOT
STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALL ENABLE THE UPPER VORTEX TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES MON-WED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LEAN TOWARD A
STALLED OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL VISIBILITY PROBABILIY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF BR. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF FG OR MIFG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO CEDAR KEY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR/OBSERVATIONS...007/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 190042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. A TRIO OF JET STREAKS WILL DETERMINE THE
FATE OF THIS UPPER LOW WHICH WILL INEVITABLY IMPACT THE WEATHER
ACROSS FLORIDA. AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK ENTERING MONTANA UPSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW ... COMBINED WITH A 100 KNOT STREAK STRETCHING
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ... AND A 120 KNOT
STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALL ENABLE THE UPPER VORTEX TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES MON-WED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LEAN TOWARD A
STALLED OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL VISIBILITY PROBABILIY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF BR. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF FG OR MIFG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO CEDAR KEY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR/OBSERVATIONS...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181358
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY OUT WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE RETURNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL LIKELY DIM THE SUN FROM
TIME TO TIME NORTH OF TAMPA.

ALSO OF NOTE IS A WEAK LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN ARC OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF NAPLES...AND THIS IS INTERSECTING
THE LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON
RADAR WHERE THESE FEATURES INTERSECT...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN UNDER 10 PERCENT...AND THE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

FOR THE UPDATE...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MAINLY DRY
MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
1 OR 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALREADY
HAVE MADE ITS WAY INLAND...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH SARASOTA COUNTY.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUICKLY DIMINISHING NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LAL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZE PUSHES TO THEIR EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AS SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH WELL INLAND AND NOT COME BACK TOWARD THE COAST. OTHERWISE FEW
CHANGES MADE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181358
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY OUT WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE RETURNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL LIKELY DIM THE SUN FROM
TIME TO TIME NORTH OF TAMPA.

ALSO OF NOTE IS A WEAK LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN ARC OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF NAPLES...AND THIS IS INTERSECTING
THE LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON
RADAR WHERE THESE FEATURES INTERSECT...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN UNDER 10 PERCENT...AND THE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

FOR THE UPDATE...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MAINLY DRY
MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
1 OR 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALREADY
HAVE MADE ITS WAY INLAND...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH SARASOTA COUNTY.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUICKLY DIMINISHING NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LAL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZE PUSHES TO THEIR EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AS SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH WELL INLAND AND NOT COME BACK TOWARD THE COAST. OTHERWISE FEW
CHANGES MADE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 180038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER JUST NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY AS EVIDENT ON THIS EVENINGS SURFACE ANALYSIS. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY SAW BETTER PROPAGATION AND COLLISION OF THE SEA
BREEZES WHICH OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP INLAND TODAY BUT DID NOT
HAVE NEAR THE COVERAGE OR STRENGTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING.
00Z TBW SOUNDING DID SHOW SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
MAY HAVE HELPED LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE TODAY. HI RES
GUIDANCE THIS EVENING IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A COUPLE MORE
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH AROUND 2Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF I 4 BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED GIVEN THE PATTERN
TODAY. FOR THE UPDATE...NUDGED POPS DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNRISE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN A WEAK VORT MAX ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BEFORE SUNRISE...COULD SEE SOME FOG REDEVELOP NEAR PGD WITH SOME
LOWING CIGS AT SRQ AND LAL. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN SHIFT INLAND. SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF I 75...THEREFORE INCLUDED VCSH WORDING
LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR LAL.


&&

.MARINE...NO UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY
TRIM RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING AND NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  85  73  85 /  10  20  20  30
FMY  73  89  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  71  88  71  89 /  40  40  30  50
SRQ  72  84  72  84 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  68  86  67  87 /  20  30  20  40
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 171858
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO STREAM CIRRUS DECK OVER THE REGION
WHILE THINNER CLOUD SHIELD AND DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WARM
AFTERNOON. BUT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER COOLER TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 70S.

EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT WITH DISSIPATING
FRONT IN THE AREA AND SERIES OF UPPER VORT MAXES STREAMING FROM
THE GULF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE E GULF. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SHALLOW FIELD FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT HOLD IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS WHILE
NIGHT TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING TO
SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE N CARIB OVER THE STATE...BUT
DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE LOCAL
AREAS. AS VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES FURTHER. LATEST POPS GUIDANCE SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN COASTAL ZONES WHILE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY
COVERAGE AS GULF SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO TOO.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT GFS IS
NOW PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF
AND INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WASHING
OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. DEEP MOISTURE
PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING MONDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING
TUESDAY SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS HGIH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT THE GFS WANTS TO DRIVE THE
DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ONLY BRING IT INTO THE NATURE COAST. SINCE IT IS THE
SECOND HALF OF APRIL HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LEFT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE WITH MID TO UPPER CLOUD
DECKS CONTINUING FROM THE GULF. VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KLAL
THRU ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCALIZED FOG OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS 12Z AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY BENIGH MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  85  73  85 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  71  88  72  89 /  10  30  20  20
GIF  70  86  71  89 /  50  50  50  50
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  67  86  67  87 /  30  30  30  50
SPG  73  84  75  85 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 171858
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO STREAM CIRRUS DECK OVER THE REGION
WHILE THINNER CLOUD SHIELD AND DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WARM
AFTERNOON. BUT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER COOLER TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 70S.

EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT WITH DISSIPATING
FRONT IN THE AREA AND SERIES OF UPPER VORT MAXES STREAMING FROM
THE GULF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE E GULF. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SHALLOW FIELD FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT HOLD IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS WHILE
NIGHT TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING TO
SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE N CARIB OVER THE STATE...BUT
DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE LOCAL
AREAS. AS VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES FURTHER. LATEST POPS GUIDANCE SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN COASTAL ZONES WHILE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY
COVERAGE AS GULF SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO TOO.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT GFS IS
NOW PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF
AND INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WASHING
OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. DEEP MOISTURE
PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING MONDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING
TUESDAY SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS HGIH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT THE GFS WANTS TO DRIVE THE
DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ONLY BRING IT INTO THE NATURE COAST. SINCE IT IS THE
SECOND HALF OF APRIL HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LEFT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE WITH MID TO UPPER CLOUD
DECKS CONTINUING FROM THE GULF. VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KLAL
THRU ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCALIZED FOG OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS 12Z AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY BENIGH MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  85  73  85 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  71  88  72  89 /  10  30  20  20
GIF  70  86  71  89 /  50  50  50  50
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  67  86  67  87 /  30  30  30  50
SPG  73  84  75  85 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 171858
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO STREAM CIRRUS DECK OVER THE REGION
WHILE THINNER CLOUD SHIELD AND DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WARM
AFTERNOON. BUT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER COOLER TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 70S.

EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT WITH DISSIPATING
FRONT IN THE AREA AND SERIES OF UPPER VORT MAXES STREAMING FROM
THE GULF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE E GULF. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SHALLOW FIELD FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT HOLD IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS WHILE
NIGHT TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING TO
SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE N CARIB OVER THE STATE...BUT
DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE LOCAL
AREAS. AS VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES FURTHER. LATEST POPS GUIDANCE SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN COASTAL ZONES WHILE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY
COVERAGE AS GULF SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO TOO.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT GFS IS
NOW PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF
AND INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WASHING
OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. DEEP MOISTURE
PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING MONDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING
TUESDAY SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS HGIH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT THE GFS WANTS TO DRIVE THE
DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ONLY BRING IT INTO THE NATURE COAST. SINCE IT IS THE
SECOND HALF OF APRIL HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LEFT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE WITH MID TO UPPER CLOUD
DECKS CONTINUING FROM THE GULF. VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KLAL
THRU ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCALIZED FOG OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS 12Z AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY BENIGH MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  85  73  85 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  71  88  72  89 /  10  30  20  20
GIF  70  86  71  89 /  50  50  50  50
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  67  86  67  87 /  30  30  30  50
SPG  73  84  75  85 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 171858
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO STREAM CIRRUS DECK OVER THE REGION
WHILE THINNER CLOUD SHIELD AND DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WARM
AFTERNOON. BUT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER COOLER TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 70S.

EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT WITH DISSIPATING
FRONT IN THE AREA AND SERIES OF UPPER VORT MAXES STREAMING FROM
THE GULF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE E GULF. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SHALLOW FIELD FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT HOLD IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS WHILE
NIGHT TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING TO
SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE N CARIB OVER THE STATE...BUT
DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE LOCAL
AREAS. AS VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES FURTHER. LATEST POPS GUIDANCE SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN COASTAL ZONES WHILE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY
COVERAGE AS GULF SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO TOO.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT GFS IS
NOW PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF
AND INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WASHING
OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. DEEP MOISTURE
PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING MONDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING
TUESDAY SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS HGIH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT THE GFS WANTS TO DRIVE THE
DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ONLY BRING IT INTO THE NATURE COAST. SINCE IT IS THE
SECOND HALF OF APRIL HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LEFT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE WITH MID TO UPPER CLOUD
DECKS CONTINUING FROM THE GULF. VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KLAL
THRU ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCALIZED FOG OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS 12Z AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY BENIGH MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  85  73  85 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  71  88  72  89 /  10  30  20  20
GIF  70  86  71  89 /  50  50  50  50
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  67  86  67  87 /  30  30  30  50
SPG  73  84  75  85 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 171422
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND VORT MAXES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHILE ADVECTING THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S WITH PWATS AT
1.66 INCHES IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TODAY. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
WEAKENING SHOWERS COLLAPSING IN THE NE GULF MOVING ASHORE THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS
FOR MORNING SHOWERS LOCATIONS BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND AND BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...FRONTAL LIFT AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR WHILE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE FROM
THE GULF. INLAND KLAL ONLY SITE FOR VCTS AFT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
THRU ABOUT 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TO NORTH
CENTRAL GULF KEEPING E-SE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST PUSHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. BUOY REPORTS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 3 FT WELL
OFFSHORE BUT IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE NEARSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  85  73 /  30  30  30  10
FMY  88  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
GIF  87  70  86  71 /  60  50  50  50
SRQ  85  71  84  71 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  86  67  86  67 /  40  30  30  30
SPG  84  73  84  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 171422
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND VORT MAXES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHILE ADVECTING THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S WITH PWATS AT
1.66 INCHES IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TODAY. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
WEAKENING SHOWERS COLLAPSING IN THE NE GULF MOVING ASHORE THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS
FOR MORNING SHOWERS LOCATIONS BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND AND BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...FRONTAL LIFT AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR WHILE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE FROM
THE GULF. INLAND KLAL ONLY SITE FOR VCTS AFT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
THRU ABOUT 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TO NORTH
CENTRAL GULF KEEPING E-SE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST PUSHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. BUOY REPORTS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 3 FT WELL
OFFSHORE BUT IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE NEARSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  85  73 /  30  30  30  10
FMY  88  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
GIF  87  70  86  71 /  60  50  50  50
SRQ  85  71  84  71 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  86  67  86  67 /  40  30  30  30
SPG  84  73  84  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 171422
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND VORT MAXES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHILE ADVECTING THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S WITH PWATS AT
1.66 INCHES IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TODAY. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
WEAKENING SHOWERS COLLAPSING IN THE NE GULF MOVING ASHORE THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS
FOR MORNING SHOWERS LOCATIONS BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND AND BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...FRONTAL LIFT AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR WHILE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE FROM
THE GULF. INLAND KLAL ONLY SITE FOR VCTS AFT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
THRU ABOUT 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TO NORTH
CENTRAL GULF KEEPING E-SE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST PUSHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. BUOY REPORTS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 3 FT WELL
OFFSHORE BUT IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE NEARSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  85  73 /  30  30  30  10
FMY  88  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
GIF  87  70  86  71 /  60  50  50  50
SRQ  85  71  84  71 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  86  67  86  67 /  40  30  30  30
SPG  84  73  84  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 171422
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND VORT MAXES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHILE ADVECTING THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S WITH PWATS AT
1.66 INCHES IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TODAY. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
WEAKENING SHOWERS COLLAPSING IN THE NE GULF MOVING ASHORE THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS
FOR MORNING SHOWERS LOCATIONS BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND AND BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...FRONTAL LIFT AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR WHILE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE FROM
THE GULF. INLAND KLAL ONLY SITE FOR VCTS AFT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
THRU ABOUT 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TO NORTH
CENTRAL GULF KEEPING E-SE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST PUSHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. BUOY REPORTS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 3 FT WELL
OFFSHORE BUT IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE NEARSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  85  73 /  30  30  30  10
FMY  88  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
GIF  87  70  86  71 /  60  50  50  50
SRQ  85  71  84  71 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  86  67  86  67 /  40  30  30  30
SPG  84  73  84  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 170853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN MOSTLY ZONAL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CROSS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO BELTS OF
WESTERLIES...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUES TO SPIN AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ARE ALSO
RIDING THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW AND FORCING PERIODIC FLARES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THESE CONVECTIVE BURST WILL
MAKE OUR LOCAL FORECAST A BIT TRICKY INTO SATURDAY AS WILL BE
EXPLAINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WITH A WEDGE HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE
FLOW AROUND THESE FEATURES HAS KEPT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM EAST
TO WEST. THERE ARE AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TO
THE AVIATION COMMUNITY...ALTHOUGH THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY...WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE LAST OF THE THURSDAY RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND SEA BREEZES HAS
DISSIPATED...LEAVING MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA DRY. HOWEVER...OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FL PANHANDLE WE SEE A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... TODAY...FIRST THINGS FIRST.
THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS IS THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND THE LOWER
LEVEL RESPONSE OF A STRENGTHENING JET RESULTING IN A BROAD WAA/LIFT
REGIME. THE MOST EFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS OFF
TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE EVIDENT THAT
AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST
ZONES...MAINLY LEVY/CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER. THE RAP AND HRRR FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THIS MOISTURE
EASTWARD INTO THESE AREA AFTER 11-12Z. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS
SOLUTION GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES
TO LIKELY OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

NOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAINFALL...WHICH IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
MANY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS...MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS
FURTHER SOUTH. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SLOWS THE DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
ACTUALLY ENDS UP FORCING WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DUE
TO DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING. IN THIS CASE THE SHOWERS/STORMS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA COULD BE ENHANCED (EVEN BACK
TOWARD THE COAST). THE LATEST 07Z HRRR SOLUTION IS SHOWING SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THIS. THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE RAINFALL COOLING
AND MOMENTUM ARE ENOUGH TO PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND ACT TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE. METEOROLOGY IS NEVER AN
EXACT SCIENCE...AND THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. IT
IS LIKELY BEST IN THIS SCENARIO NOT TO GET TOO HUNG UP ON
DETAILS...SINCE THIS JUST IS NOT A PATTERN WHERE THAT IS REALISTIC.
SO...WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH
THE ENERGY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THEN PASSING OUT OF THESE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND SOME SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION
FURTHER SOUTH. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE LATER TODAY. SO
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND GENERALLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...SITUATION REMAIN TRICKY. THE QUESTION IS DO WE BELIEVE THE
PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE OR THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE? THE
PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST EVENING STORMS SETTLE DOWN AND
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IS BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. MANY
OF THE HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MEMBERS SHOW A ROUND OF STORMS
QUICKLY CROSSING THE NE GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST (EVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY AREA). THESE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FOCUS
OF A LARGE OUTFLOW SURGE INITIATED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TODAY. IT
IS SURPRISING HOW MANY MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...SO MANY THINGS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
BLOB TO EVEN EXIST...INCLUDING THE PROPER PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
HERE...AND HIRES GUIDANCE IS OFTEN OVER AGGRESSIVE IN THESE TYPE OF
CASES. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END POPS OVER THE NATURE COAST
TONIGHT...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD THE BENIGN GFS/NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
UNTIL WE SEE EVIDENCE TO GO AGAINST THESE RELIABLE SOURCES.

SATURDAY...WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTING CUTOFF LOW WILL
ACTUALLY HELP TO RIDGE UP THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SO WHILE
PLENTY OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF...THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME
EASTWARD JUST YET. ALSO...OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE JUST
ABOUT GONE BY THIS TIME...WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT LEFT BEHIND. THE
WEAK GRADIENT MEANS OUR FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL BE FRONT THE WEST...SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER INITIATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GENERALLY
WELL INLAND...WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE COAST. EVEN
THESE LOW POPS SHOULD END BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEA BREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE WEEKEND FINISHES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHILE A RIDGE REACHES FROM THE EAST GULF TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS A COLD FRONT THAT
ARCS DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF. HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGES SOUTH TO FL...BRIDGING A WARM FRONT
LIKE BOUNDARY OVER GA AND NW FL COASTAL WATERS.

THROUGH TUE - THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW LIFT UP OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVER
FL. THE UPPER RIDGE AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH THE WARM
FRONT OFF THE SE U.S COAST...SHIFT OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

FOR WED AND THU - THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE GULF REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT ACROSS FL
HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS IT WEAKENS.

THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE...MAXIMUM PWAT VALUES ALONG THE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO
2.0 RANGE...FOR SHOWERS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...BEFORE IT LIFTS AWAY...WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST HIGHEST
COVERAGE SUN AND MON. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS THROUGH
MID-WEEK THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TREND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION... AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KTPA TO
KLAL AND NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SO...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND THEN
LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE INLAND FROM TERMINALS. &&

.MARINE... WIND AND SEAS REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AWAY FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...AND THEN
RETURN TO AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY FOR MAINLY THE
NATURE COAST ZONES AND INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST.

FOG POTENTIAL... AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  85  73 /  30  30  30  10
FMY  88  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
GIF  87  70  86  71 /  60  50  50  50
SRQ  85  71  84  71 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  86  67  86  67 /  40  30  30  30
SPG  84  73  84  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 170853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN MOSTLY ZONAL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CROSS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO BELTS OF
WESTERLIES...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUES TO SPIN AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ARE ALSO
RIDING THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW AND FORCING PERIODIC FLARES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THESE CONVECTIVE BURST WILL
MAKE OUR LOCAL FORECAST A BIT TRICKY INTO SATURDAY AS WILL BE
EXPLAINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WITH A WEDGE HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE
FLOW AROUND THESE FEATURES HAS KEPT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM EAST
TO WEST. THERE ARE AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TO
THE AVIATION COMMUNITY...ALTHOUGH THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY...WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE LAST OF THE THURSDAY RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND SEA BREEZES HAS
DISSIPATED...LEAVING MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA DRY. HOWEVER...OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FL PANHANDLE WE SEE A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... TODAY...FIRST THINGS FIRST.
THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS IS THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND THE LOWER
LEVEL RESPONSE OF A STRENGTHENING JET RESULTING IN A BROAD WAA/LIFT
REGIME. THE MOST EFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS OFF
TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE EVIDENT THAT
AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST
ZONES...MAINLY LEVY/CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER. THE RAP AND HRRR FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THIS MOISTURE
EASTWARD INTO THESE AREA AFTER 11-12Z. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS
SOLUTION GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES
TO LIKELY OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

NOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAINFALL...WHICH IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
MANY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS...MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS
FURTHER SOUTH. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SLOWS THE DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
ACTUALLY ENDS UP FORCING WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DUE
TO DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING. IN THIS CASE THE SHOWERS/STORMS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA COULD BE ENHANCED (EVEN BACK
TOWARD THE COAST). THE LATEST 07Z HRRR SOLUTION IS SHOWING SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THIS. THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE RAINFALL COOLING
AND MOMENTUM ARE ENOUGH TO PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND ACT TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE. METEOROLOGY IS NEVER AN
EXACT SCIENCE...AND THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. IT
IS LIKELY BEST IN THIS SCENARIO NOT TO GET TOO HUNG UP ON
DETAILS...SINCE THIS JUST IS NOT A PATTERN WHERE THAT IS REALISTIC.
SO...WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FAR NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH
THE ENERGY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THEN PASSING OUT OF THESE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND SOME SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION
FURTHER SOUTH. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE LATER TODAY. SO
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND GENERALLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...SITUATION REMAIN TRICKY. THE QUESTION IS DO WE BELIEVE THE
PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE OR THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE? THE
PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST EVENING STORMS SETTLE DOWN AND
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IS BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. MANY
OF THE HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MEMBERS SHOW A ROUND OF STORMS
QUICKLY CROSSING THE NE GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST (EVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY AREA). THESE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FOCUS
OF A LARGE OUTFLOW SURGE INITIATED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TODAY. IT
IS SURPRISING HOW MANY MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...SO MANY THINGS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
BLOB TO EVEN EXIST...INCLUDING THE PROPER PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
HERE...AND HIRES GUIDANCE IS OFTEN OVER AGGRESSIVE IN THESE TYPE OF
CASES. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END POPS OVER THE NATURE COAST
TONIGHT...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD THE BENIGN GFS/NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
UNTIL WE SEE EVIDENCE TO GO AGAINST THESE RELIABLE SOURCES.

SATURDAY...WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTING CUTOFF LOW WILL
ACTUALLY HELP TO RIDGE UP THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SO WHILE
PLENTY OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF...THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME
EASTWARD JUST YET. ALSO...OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE JUST
ABOUT GONE BY THIS TIME...WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT LEFT BEHIND. THE
WEAK GRADIENT MEANS OUR FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL BE FRONT THE WEST...SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER INITIATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GENERALLY
WELL INLAND...WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE COAST. EVEN
THESE LOW POPS SHOULD END BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEA BREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE WEEKEND FINISHES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHILE A RIDGE REACHES FROM THE EAST GULF TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS A COLD FRONT THAT
ARCS DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF. HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGES SOUTH TO FL...BRIDGING A WARM FRONT
LIKE BOUNDARY OVER GA AND NW FL COASTAL WATERS.

THROUGH TUE - THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW LIFT UP OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVER
FL. THE UPPER RIDGE AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH THE WARM
FRONT OFF THE SE U.S COAST...SHIFT OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

FOR WED AND THU - THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE GULF REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT ACROSS FL
HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS IT WEAKENS.

THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE...MAXIMUM PWAT VALUES ALONG THE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO
2.0 RANGE...FOR SHOWERS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...BEFORE IT LIFTS AWAY...WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST HIGHEST
COVERAGE SUN AND MON. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS THROUGH
MID-WEEK THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TREND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION... AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KTPA TO
KLAL AND NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SO...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND THEN
LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE INLAND FROM TERMINALS. &&

.MARINE... WIND AND SEAS REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AWAY FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...AND THEN
RETURN TO AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY FOR MAINLY THE
NATURE COAST ZONES AND INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST.

FOG POTENTIAL... AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  85  73 /  30  30  30  10
FMY  88  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
GIF  87  70  86  71 /  60  50  50  50
SRQ  85  71  84  71 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  86  67  86  67 /  40  30  30  30
SPG  84  73  84  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 170017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
817 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SPARKED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIME FORMATION LOCATION WAS EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR AND STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE IN THE SLOWER
MOVING STRONGER STORMS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED STORMS
OVER PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND OVER HARDEE AND
POLK COUNTIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SMALL BREAK IN COVERAGE
BETWEEN 03-06Z BUT THEN ANOTHER PULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILIAR ON
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUGGY
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WILL TWEAK POPS AFTER 06Z
TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEND
UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THOSE CHANGES. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED TODAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT CONDITIONS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST
PART. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT IN PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
IMPACTING LAL/PGD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  85  72  85 /  40  50  30  50
FMY  71  88  72  88 /  20  10  10  40
GIF  70  88  70  88 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  30  30  30  30
BKV  68  86  66  86 /  40  60  30  60
SPG  74  85  74  84 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 170017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
817 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SPARKED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIME FORMATION LOCATION WAS EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR AND STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE IN THE SLOWER
MOVING STRONGER STORMS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED STORMS
OVER PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND OVER HARDEE AND
POLK COUNTIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SMALL BREAK IN COVERAGE
BETWEEN 03-06Z BUT THEN ANOTHER PULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILIAR ON
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUGGY
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WILL TWEAK POPS AFTER 06Z
TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEND
UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THOSE CHANGES. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED TODAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT CONDITIONS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST
PART. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT IN PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
IMPACTING LAL/PGD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  85  72  85 /  40  50  30  50
FMY  71  88  72  88 /  20  10  10  40
GIF  70  88  70  88 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  30  30  30  30
BKV  68  86  66  86 /  40  60  30  60
SPG  74  85  74  84 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 161836
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...BEST CHANCE STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING TO BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 4 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPS
65-75 NORTH OF FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH ALONG
INTERSTATE 4. NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EASTERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF FRONT. SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND FROM CLEARWATER THROUGH
BONITA BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING ONSHORE NORTH OF
TAMPA. BEST HEATING AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON RADAR TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF SEBRING. STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN.
WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...
SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS. WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL
LEAD TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MID/HI CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BUT LACKS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MEANS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL BE THE SPARK FOR STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
VILLAGES TO HAINES CITY TO SEBRING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
GRADIENT CREATING A SLIGHT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE STATE BY THE
TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL FAVOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING H5 TEMPS NEAR -10C WITH DECENT INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
FORMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. TEMPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  85  72  85 /  30  50  30  50
FMY  71  88  72  88 /  30  10  10  40
GIF  70  88  70  88 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  30  30  30
BKV  68  86  66  86 /  30  60  30  60
SPG  74  85  74  84 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/BARRON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...07/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 161836
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...BEST CHANCE STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING TO BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 4 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPS
65-75 NORTH OF FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH ALONG
INTERSTATE 4. NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EASTERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF FRONT. SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND FROM CLEARWATER THROUGH
BONITA BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING ONSHORE NORTH OF
TAMPA. BEST HEATING AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON RADAR TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF SEBRING. STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN.
WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...
SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS. WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL
LEAD TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MID/HI CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BUT LACKS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MEANS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL BE THE SPARK FOR STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
VILLAGES TO HAINES CITY TO SEBRING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
GRADIENT CREATING A SLIGHT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE STATE BY THE
TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL FAVOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING H5 TEMPS NEAR -10C WITH DECENT INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
FORMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. TEMPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  85  72  85 /  30  50  30  50
FMY  71  88  72  88 /  30  10  10  40
GIF  70  88  70  88 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  30  30  30
BKV  68  86  66  86 /  30  60  30  60
SPG  74  85  74  84 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/BARRON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...07/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 161836
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...BEST CHANCE STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING TO BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 4 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPS
65-75 NORTH OF FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH ALONG
INTERSTATE 4. NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EASTERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF FRONT. SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND FROM CLEARWATER THROUGH
BONITA BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING ONSHORE NORTH OF
TAMPA. BEST HEATING AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON RADAR TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF SEBRING. STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN.
WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...
SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS. WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL
LEAD TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MID/HI CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BUT LACKS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MEANS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL BE THE SPARK FOR STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
VILLAGES TO HAINES CITY TO SEBRING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
GRADIENT CREATING A SLIGHT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE STATE BY THE
TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL FAVOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING H5 TEMPS NEAR -10C WITH DECENT INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
FORMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. TEMPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  85  72  85 /  30  50  30  50
FMY  71  88  72  88 /  30  10  10  40
GIF  70  88  70  88 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  30  30  30
BKV  68  86  66  86 /  30  60  30  60
SPG  74  85  74  84 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/BARRON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...07/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 161836
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...BEST CHANCE STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING TO BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 4 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPS
65-75 NORTH OF FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH ALONG
INTERSTATE 4. NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EASTERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF FRONT. SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND FROM CLEARWATER THROUGH
BONITA BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING ONSHORE NORTH OF
TAMPA. BEST HEATING AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON RADAR TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF SEBRING. STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN.
WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...
SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS. WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL
LEAD TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MID/HI CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BUT LACKS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MEANS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL BE THE SPARK FOR STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
VILLAGES TO HAINES CITY TO SEBRING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
GRADIENT CREATING A SLIGHT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE STATE BY THE
TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL FAVOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING H5 TEMPS NEAR -10C WITH DECENT INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
FORMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. TEMPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  85  72  85 /  30  50  30  50
FMY  71  88  72  88 /  30  10  10  40
GIF  70  88  70  88 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  71  84  71  84 /  20  30  30  30
BKV  68  86  66  86 /  30  60  30  60
SPG  74  85  74  84 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/BARRON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...07/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 161325 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CORRECTED JUMBLED TEXT AT END OF PRODUCT.

...STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH
OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOG FROM
LAKELAND TO ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY 14Z.  RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO THE CEDAR KEY AREA SO WILL UP MORNING POPS
THERE.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF SOUTHWEST U.S.  SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO FLORIDA WITH ABUNDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST END OF THE LOOP
CURRENT IN THE GULF.

IMPULSE IN THE GULF TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING MAX
HEATING. SEA BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF TAMPA. ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -5C, A CAPE AROUND 2,000, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.74...EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.THE THREAT...
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING NEAR SEBRING.

STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN. WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED
CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS.

WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF FRONT TO MAKE IT TO
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. SMALL AREA OF FOG FROM LAKELAND TO ORLANDO
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. TERMINALS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AND
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 INCLUDING THE LAKELAND
AIRPORT. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TO BE FOUND WITHIN STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT STALLS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF TAMPA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE NORTH OF FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF TAMPA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/HYDRO...07/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 161325 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CORRECTED JUMBLED TEXT AT END OF PRODUCT.

...STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH
OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOG FROM
LAKELAND TO ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY 14Z.  RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO THE CEDAR KEY AREA SO WILL UP MORNING POPS
THERE.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF SOUTHWEST U.S.  SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO FLORIDA WITH ABUNDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST END OF THE LOOP
CURRENT IN THE GULF.

IMPULSE IN THE GULF TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING MAX
HEATING. SEA BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF TAMPA. ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -5C, A CAPE AROUND 2,000, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.74...EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.THE THREAT...
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING NEAR SEBRING.

STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN. WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED
CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS.

WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF FRONT TO MAKE IT TO
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. SMALL AREA OF FOG FROM LAKELAND TO ORLANDO
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. TERMINALS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AND
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 INCLUDING THE LAKELAND
AIRPORT. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TO BE FOUND WITHIN STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT STALLS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF TAMPA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE NORTH OF FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF TAMPA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/HYDRO...07/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 161325 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CORRECTED JUMBLED TEXT AT END OF PRODUCT.

...STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH
OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOG FROM
LAKELAND TO ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY 14Z.  RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO THE CEDAR KEY AREA SO WILL UP MORNING POPS
THERE.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF SOUTHWEST U.S.  SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO FLORIDA WITH ABUNDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST END OF THE LOOP
CURRENT IN THE GULF.

IMPULSE IN THE GULF TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING MAX
HEATING. SEA BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF TAMPA. ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -5C, A CAPE AROUND 2,000, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.74...EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.THE THREAT...
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING NEAR SEBRING.

STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN. WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED
CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS.

WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF FRONT TO MAKE IT TO
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. SMALL AREA OF FOG FROM LAKELAND TO ORLANDO
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. TERMINALS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AND
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 INCLUDING THE LAKELAND
AIRPORT. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TO BE FOUND WITHIN STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT STALLS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF TAMPA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE NORTH OF FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF TAMPA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/HYDRO...07/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 161325 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CORRECTED JUMBLED TEXT AT END OF PRODUCT.

...STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH
OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOG FROM
LAKELAND TO ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY 14Z.  RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO THE CEDAR KEY AREA SO WILL UP MORNING POPS
THERE.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF SOUTHWEST U.S.  SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO FLORIDA WITH ABUNDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST END OF THE LOOP
CURRENT IN THE GULF.

IMPULSE IN THE GULF TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING MAX
HEATING. SEA BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF TAMPA. ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -5C, A CAPE AROUND 2,000, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.74...EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.THE THREAT...
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING NEAR SEBRING.

STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN. WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED
CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS.

WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF FRONT TO MAKE IT TO
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. SMALL AREA OF FOG FROM LAKELAND TO ORLANDO
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. TERMINALS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AND
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 INCLUDING THE LAKELAND
AIRPORT. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TO BE FOUND WITHIN STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT STALLS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF TAMPA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE NORTH OF FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF TAMPA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/HYDRO...07/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 161315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH
OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOG FROM
LAKELAND TO ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY 14Z.  RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO THE CEDAR KEY AREA SO WILL UP MORNING POPS
THERE.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF SOUTHWEST U.S.  SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO FLORIDA WITH ABUNDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST END OF THE LOOP
CURRENT IN THE GULF.

IMPULSE IN THE GULF TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PINENSULA DURING MAX
HEATING. SEA BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF TAMPA. ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -5C, A CAPE AROUND 2,000, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.74...EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.THE THREAT...
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING NEAR SEBRING.

STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN. WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED
CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS.

WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF FRONT TO MAKE IT TO
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. SMALL AREA OF FOG FROM LAKELAND TO ORLANDO
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. TERMINALS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AND
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 INCLUDING THE LAKELAND
AIRPORT. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TO BE FOUND WITHIN STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z.

&&WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.AN ISSUA WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.E NEAR HIGHWAYS.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  40  20
FMY  89  71  88  71 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  87  69  86  69 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  83  71  83  70 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  86  67  85  66 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  40  20  30  20


.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT STALLS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF TAMPA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE NORTH OF FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF TAMPA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/HYDRO...07/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 161315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH
OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOG FROM
LAKELAND TO ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY 14Z.  RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RAIN STREAMING INTO THE CEDAR KEY AREA SO WILL UP MORNING POPS
THERE.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF SOUTHWEST U.S.  SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO FLORIDA WITH ABUNDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW HAD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST END OF THE LOOP
CURRENT IN THE GULF.

IMPULSE IN THE GULF TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PINENSULA DURING MAX
HEATING. SEA BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF TAMPA. ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -5C, A CAPE AROUND 2,000, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.74...EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.THE THREAT...
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING NEAR SEBRING.

STORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIP LOADING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN. WATER MOVING AT THIS SPEED
CAN DAMAGE OLDER MANUFACTURED HOMES...SHEDS...FENCES AND TENTS.

WEAK FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 18,000 FT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF FRONT TO MAKE IT TO
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. SMALL AREA OF FOG FROM LAKELAND TO ORLANDO
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. TERMINALS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AND
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 INCLUDING THE LAKELAND
AIRPORT. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TO BE FOUND WITHIN STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z.

&&WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.AN ISSUA WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.E NEAR HIGHWAYS.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  40  20
FMY  89  71  88  71 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  87  69  86  69 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  83  71  83  70 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  86  67  85  66 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  40  20  30  20


.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT STALLS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF TAMPA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE NORTH OF FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF TAMPA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY MEANS NO FLAGS NEEDED...HOWEVER...FOG COMBINED WITH
ANY SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR HIGHWAYS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/HYDRO...07/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 160832
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TWO DISTINCT
AND SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NOW RUNS
IN A GENERALLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. A SECOND BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CROSSES FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...OVER MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/FL PENINSULA. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PER
WV IMAGERY. BETWEEN THESE TO BELTS OF WESTERLIES...THE FLOW BECOMES
MUCH WEAKER...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW NOW TRAPPED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...AND IS NOT SHOWN TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BY THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WE SEE A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN 80-100KT JET
STREAK...EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...AND ALONG
THE LEADING NOSE OF THE JET ARE FORCING PERIODIC PULSES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS LIFT
IS NOW BEGINNING TO REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE NE GOMEX WHERE HIGHER
LEVEL RADAR RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.
THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THEIR ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CLOSELY FOR THE RAIN CHANCES INTO
OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES/LEVY COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY IS SUBTLE...BUT CAN BE
FOUND MOST EASILY BY SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...WHERE SLIGHTLY
"DRIER" AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS (ALONG WITH
EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS) FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
GENERALLY SPEAK THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE RELATED TO LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND ITS EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH ANY SEA-BREEZE THAT IS
ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE SEA-BREEZE SHOULD BE MOST DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND
ALONG THE SUN COAST. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE TRACKING SHOWER
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A LEADING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST
RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL AND
FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO
LEVY COUNTY. BOTH SHOW THIS ACTIVITY JUST BARELY REACHING LEVY...BUT
A SLIGHT SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE RADAR RETURNS COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR NORTH. A FEW OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER LEE COUNTY ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING CONVECTION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE FINALLY PASSING OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF.

TOWARD MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST A RATHER
ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ACTUALLY AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEGREE OF AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS TO STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION.
APPEARS STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND BY THAT I
JUST MEAN CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...APPEARS STORMS BEGIN TO ALIGN MORE NORTH TO SOUTH PARALLEL
TO THE COAST...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONES MOST ACTIVELY INTERACTS WITH
THE SUNCOAST SEA-BREEZE. THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FOR NOW...HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND INLAND FORM I-75...BUT CERTAINLY
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME STORMS FURTHER WEST TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...UP INTO PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES. STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...GIVEN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP. OF
BIGGEST CONCERN LATER TODAY IS THIS STORM MOTION AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 2" OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. THIS
IS CONCERNING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
PORTIONS OF POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS CLOSELY FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO BEEN
SHOWING FOR SEVERAL RUNS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFT VELOCITIES WITH
THE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 15 M/S. THESE ARE DECENT
VALUES FOR SEA-BREEZE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR POTENT UPDRAFTS...PRECIP
LOADING AND DOWNDRAFT WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS OVER
OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES GIVEN THE NEARBY FRONTAL FOCUS...BUT SHOULD
BE ENDING EARLIER OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT APPEARS MUCH QUIETER...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER WILL BE
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND ANY OF THESE MAY THREATEN
OUR FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS) WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWER. CURRENTLY THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO GRABBING ONTO ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE ROUNDS LATE TONIGHT. THE IMPULSES ARE SO SUBTLE AND DEPENDENT
ON JUST THE RIGHT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT FEEL GOING
TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT IS UNNECESSARY. WILL LET THE
DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z.

FRIDAY... BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DECAY...WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR A MORE UNIFORM SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FL WEST COAST.
1000-700MB FLOW FROM THE W/NW WOULD SUGGEST THIS SEABREEZE MOVE
INLAND MORE QUICKLY...WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS
OCCURRING OVER OUR FAR INLAND ZONES OR EVEN OVER TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH THIS IN MIND...OVERALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOWER FOR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THIS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HIGHEST POPS 50-60% WILL THEREFORE EXIST WELL INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ANY PASSING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
THROUGH NORTHERN FL WHILE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH
INTO FL WITH A WEAK GRADIENT. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
TRACKS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ARCS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO
THE GULF...AND OPENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH DOWN INTO THE GULF. THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT WITH AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES..AND INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOONS...IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

FOR MON-WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...DOMINATING
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO CANADA AND DRAGS
THE COLD FRONT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT WITH THE SOUTHERN END
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FL. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WHICH WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS..WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES BEGINS TO TREND DOWN TUE-WED AS THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.

TEMPERATURES START OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY DROP BY MID
WEEK. HIGHS DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BUT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND MOST
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND KFMY/KRSW WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 17Z...ALTHOUGH EVEN TERMINALS
ALONG I-75 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM.

&&

.MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DECAY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  40  20
FMY  89  71  88  71 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  87  69  86  69 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  83  71  83  70 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  86  67  85  66 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 160832
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TWO DISTINCT
AND SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NOW RUNS
IN A GENERALLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. A SECOND BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CROSSES FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...OVER MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/FL PENINSULA. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PER
WV IMAGERY. BETWEEN THESE TO BELTS OF WESTERLIES...THE FLOW BECOMES
MUCH WEAKER...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW NOW TRAPPED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...AND IS NOT SHOWN TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BY THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WE SEE A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN 80-100KT JET
STREAK...EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...AND ALONG
THE LEADING NOSE OF THE JET ARE FORCING PERIODIC PULSES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS LIFT
IS NOW BEGINNING TO REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE NE GOMEX WHERE HIGHER
LEVEL RADAR RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.
THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THEIR ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CLOSELY FOR THE RAIN CHANCES INTO
OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES/LEVY COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY IS SUBTLE...BUT CAN BE
FOUND MOST EASILY BY SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...WHERE SLIGHTLY
"DRIER" AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS (ALONG WITH
EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS) FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
GENERALLY SPEAK THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE RELATED TO LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND ITS EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH ANY SEA-BREEZE THAT IS
ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE SEA-BREEZE SHOULD BE MOST DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND
ALONG THE SUN COAST. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE TRACKING SHOWER
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A LEADING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST
RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL AND
FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO
LEVY COUNTY. BOTH SHOW THIS ACTIVITY JUST BARELY REACHING LEVY...BUT
A SLIGHT SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE RADAR RETURNS COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR NORTH. A FEW OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER LEE COUNTY ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING CONVECTION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE FINALLY PASSING OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF.

TOWARD MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST A RATHER
ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ACTUALLY AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEGREE OF AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS TO STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION.
APPEARS STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND BY THAT I
JUST MEAN CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...APPEARS STORMS BEGIN TO ALIGN MORE NORTH TO SOUTH PARALLEL
TO THE COAST...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONES MOST ACTIVELY INTERACTS WITH
THE SUNCOAST SEA-BREEZE. THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FOR NOW...HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND INLAND FORM I-75...BUT CERTAINLY
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME STORMS FURTHER WEST TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...UP INTO PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES. STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...GIVEN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP. OF
BIGGEST CONCERN LATER TODAY IS THIS STORM MOTION AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 2" OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. THIS
IS CONCERNING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
PORTIONS OF POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS CLOSELY FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO BEEN
SHOWING FOR SEVERAL RUNS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFT VELOCITIES WITH
THE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 15 M/S. THESE ARE DECENT
VALUES FOR SEA-BREEZE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR POTENT UPDRAFTS...PRECIP
LOADING AND DOWNDRAFT WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS OVER
OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES GIVEN THE NEARBY FRONTAL FOCUS...BUT SHOULD
BE ENDING EARLIER OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT APPEARS MUCH QUIETER...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER WILL BE
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND ANY OF THESE MAY THREATEN
OUR FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS) WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWER. CURRENTLY THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO GRABBING ONTO ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE ROUNDS LATE TONIGHT. THE IMPULSES ARE SO SUBTLE AND DEPENDENT
ON JUST THE RIGHT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT FEEL GOING
TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT IS UNNECESSARY. WILL LET THE
DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z.

FRIDAY... BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DECAY...WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR A MORE UNIFORM SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FL WEST COAST.
1000-700MB FLOW FROM THE W/NW WOULD SUGGEST THIS SEABREEZE MOVE
INLAND MORE QUICKLY...WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS
OCCURRING OVER OUR FAR INLAND ZONES OR EVEN OVER TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH THIS IN MIND...OVERALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOWER FOR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THIS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HIGHEST POPS 50-60% WILL THEREFORE EXIST WELL INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ANY PASSING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
THROUGH NORTHERN FL WHILE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH
INTO FL WITH A WEAK GRADIENT. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
TRACKS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ARCS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO
THE GULF...AND OPENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH DOWN INTO THE GULF. THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT WITH AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES..AND INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOONS...IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

FOR MON-WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...DOMINATING
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO CANADA AND DRAGS
THE COLD FRONT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT WITH THE SOUTHERN END
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FL. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WHICH WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS..WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES BEGINS TO TREND DOWN TUE-WED AS THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.

TEMPERATURES START OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY DROP BY MID
WEEK. HIGHS DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BUT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND MOST
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND KFMY/KRSW WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 17Z...ALTHOUGH EVEN TERMINALS
ALONG I-75 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM.

&&

.MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DECAY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  40  20
FMY  89  71  88  71 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  87  69  86  69 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  83  71  83  70 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  86  67  85  66 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 160832
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TWO DISTINCT
AND SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NOW RUNS
IN A GENERALLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. A SECOND BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CROSSES FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...OVER MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/FL PENINSULA. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PER
WV IMAGERY. BETWEEN THESE TO BELTS OF WESTERLIES...THE FLOW BECOMES
MUCH WEAKER...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW NOW TRAPPED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...AND IS NOT SHOWN TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BY THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WE SEE A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN 80-100KT JET
STREAK...EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...AND ALONG
THE LEADING NOSE OF THE JET ARE FORCING PERIODIC PULSES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS LIFT
IS NOW BEGINNING TO REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE NE GOMEX WHERE HIGHER
LEVEL RADAR RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.
THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THEIR ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CLOSELY FOR THE RAIN CHANCES INTO
OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES/LEVY COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY IS SUBTLE...BUT CAN BE
FOUND MOST EASILY BY SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...WHERE SLIGHTLY
"DRIER" AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS (ALONG WITH
EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS) FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
GENERALLY SPEAK THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE RELATED TO LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND ITS EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH ANY SEA-BREEZE THAT IS
ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE SEA-BREEZE SHOULD BE MOST DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND
ALONG THE SUN COAST. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE TRACKING SHOWER
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A LEADING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST
RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL AND
FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO
LEVY COUNTY. BOTH SHOW THIS ACTIVITY JUST BARELY REACHING LEVY...BUT
A SLIGHT SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE RADAR RETURNS COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR NORTH. A FEW OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER LEE COUNTY ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING CONVECTION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE FINALLY PASSING OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF.

TOWARD MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST A RATHER
ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ACTUALLY AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEGREE OF AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS TO STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION.
APPEARS STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND BY THAT I
JUST MEAN CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...APPEARS STORMS BEGIN TO ALIGN MORE NORTH TO SOUTH PARALLEL
TO THE COAST...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONES MOST ACTIVELY INTERACTS WITH
THE SUNCOAST SEA-BREEZE. THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FOR NOW...HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND INLAND FORM I-75...BUT CERTAINLY
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME STORMS FURTHER WEST TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...UP INTO PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES. STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...GIVEN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP. OF
BIGGEST CONCERN LATER TODAY IS THIS STORM MOTION AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 2" OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. THIS
IS CONCERNING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
PORTIONS OF POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS CLOSELY FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO BEEN
SHOWING FOR SEVERAL RUNS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFT VELOCITIES WITH
THE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 15 M/S. THESE ARE DECENT
VALUES FOR SEA-BREEZE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR POTENT UPDRAFTS...PRECIP
LOADING AND DOWNDRAFT WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS OVER
OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES GIVEN THE NEARBY FRONTAL FOCUS...BUT SHOULD
BE ENDING EARLIER OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT APPEARS MUCH QUIETER...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER WILL BE
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND ANY OF THESE MAY THREATEN
OUR FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS) WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWER. CURRENTLY THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO GRABBING ONTO ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE ROUNDS LATE TONIGHT. THE IMPULSES ARE SO SUBTLE AND DEPENDENT
ON JUST THE RIGHT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT FEEL GOING
TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT IS UNNECESSARY. WILL LET THE
DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z.

FRIDAY... BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DECAY...WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR A MORE UNIFORM SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FL WEST COAST.
1000-700MB FLOW FROM THE W/NW WOULD SUGGEST THIS SEABREEZE MOVE
INLAND MORE QUICKLY...WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS
OCCURRING OVER OUR FAR INLAND ZONES OR EVEN OVER TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH THIS IN MIND...OVERALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOWER FOR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THIS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HIGHEST POPS 50-60% WILL THEREFORE EXIST WELL INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ANY PASSING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
THROUGH NORTHERN FL WHILE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH
INTO FL WITH A WEAK GRADIENT. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
TRACKS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ARCS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO
THE GULF...AND OPENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH DOWN INTO THE GULF. THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT WITH AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES..AND INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOONS...IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

FOR MON-WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...DOMINATING
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO CANADA AND DRAGS
THE COLD FRONT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT WITH THE SOUTHERN END
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FL. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WHICH WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS..WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES BEGINS TO TREND DOWN TUE-WED AS THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.

TEMPERATURES START OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY DROP BY MID
WEEK. HIGHS DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BUT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND MOST
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND KFMY/KRSW WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 17Z...ALTHOUGH EVEN TERMINALS
ALONG I-75 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM.

&&

.MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DECAY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  40  20
FMY  89  71  88  71 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  87  69  86  69 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  83  71  83  70 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  86  67  85  66 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 160832
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TWO DISTINCT
AND SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NOW RUNS
IN A GENERALLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. A SECOND BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CROSSES FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...OVER MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/FL PENINSULA. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PER
WV IMAGERY. BETWEEN THESE TO BELTS OF WESTERLIES...THE FLOW BECOMES
MUCH WEAKER...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW NOW TRAPPED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AND SPINNING NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...AND IS NOT SHOWN TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BY THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WE SEE A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN 80-100KT JET
STREAK...EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...AND ALONG
THE LEADING NOSE OF THE JET ARE FORCING PERIODIC PULSES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS LIFT
IS NOW BEGINNING TO REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE NE GOMEX WHERE HIGHER
LEVEL RADAR RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.
THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THEIR ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CLOSELY FOR THE RAIN CHANCES INTO
OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES/LEVY COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY IS SUBTLE...BUT CAN BE
FOUND MOST EASILY BY SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...WHERE SLIGHTLY
"DRIER" AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS (ALONG WITH
EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS) FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
GENERALLY SPEAK THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE RELATED TO LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND ITS EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH ANY SEA-BREEZE THAT IS
ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE SEA-BREEZE SHOULD BE MOST DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND
ALONG THE SUN COAST. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE TRACKING SHOWER
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A LEADING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST
RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL AND
FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO
LEVY COUNTY. BOTH SHOW THIS ACTIVITY JUST BARELY REACHING LEVY...BUT
A SLIGHT SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE RADAR RETURNS COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR NORTH. A FEW OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER LEE COUNTY ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING CONVECTION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE FINALLY PASSING OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF.

TOWARD MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST A RATHER
ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ACTUALLY AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEGREE OF AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS TO STORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION.
APPEARS STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND BY THAT I
JUST MEAN CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...APPEARS STORMS BEGIN TO ALIGN MORE NORTH TO SOUTH PARALLEL
TO THE COAST...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONES MOST ACTIVELY INTERACTS WITH
THE SUNCOAST SEA-BREEZE. THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FOR NOW...HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND INLAND FORM I-75...BUT CERTAINLY
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME STORMS FURTHER WEST TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...UP INTO PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES. STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...GIVEN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP. OF
BIGGEST CONCERN LATER TODAY IS THIS STORM MOTION AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 2" OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ZONES...WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. THIS
IS CONCERNING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
PORTIONS OF POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS CLOSELY FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO BEEN
SHOWING FOR SEVERAL RUNS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFT VELOCITIES WITH
THE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 15 M/S. THESE ARE DECENT
VALUES FOR SEA-BREEZE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR POTENT UPDRAFTS...PRECIP
LOADING AND DOWNDRAFT WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS OVER
OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES GIVEN THE NEARBY FRONTAL FOCUS...BUT SHOULD
BE ENDING EARLIER OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT APPEARS MUCH QUIETER...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER WILL BE
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND ANY OF THESE MAY THREATEN
OUR FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS) WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWER. CURRENTLY THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO GRABBING ONTO ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE ROUNDS LATE TONIGHT. THE IMPULSES ARE SO SUBTLE AND DEPENDENT
ON JUST THE RIGHT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT FEEL GOING
TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT IS UNNECESSARY. WILL LET THE
DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z.

FRIDAY... BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DECAY...WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR A MORE UNIFORM SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FL WEST COAST.
1000-700MB FLOW FROM THE W/NW WOULD SUGGEST THIS SEABREEZE MOVE
INLAND MORE QUICKLY...WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS
OCCURRING OVER OUR FAR INLAND ZONES OR EVEN OVER TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH THIS IN MIND...OVERALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOWER FOR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THIS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HIGHEST POPS 50-60% WILL THEREFORE EXIST WELL INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ANY PASSING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
THROUGH NORTHERN FL WHILE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH
INTO FL WITH A WEAK GRADIENT. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
TRACKS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ARCS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO
THE GULF...AND OPENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH DOWN INTO THE GULF. THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT WITH AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES..AND INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOONS...IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

FOR MON-WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...DOMINATING
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO CANADA AND DRAGS
THE COLD FRONT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT WITH THE SOUTHERN END
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FL. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WHICH WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS..WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES BEGINS TO TREND DOWN TUE-WED AS THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.

TEMPERATURES START OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY DROP BY MID
WEEK. HIGHS DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BUT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND MOST
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND KFMY/KRSW WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 17Z...ALTHOUGH EVEN TERMINALS
ALONG I-75 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM.

&&

.MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DECAY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A WEAK FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS
OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST NUMEROUS WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  40  20
FMY  89  71  88  71 /  40  40  20  10
GIF  87  69  86  69 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  83  71  83  70 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  86  67  85  66 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE




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