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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
POCKET OF COLD AIR AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN DURING
SUNDAY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND INCLUDED A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME AND NO
FURTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF IFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO NORTHWEST NEAR THE
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. PRESENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  80  63  80 /  10   0   0   5
FMY  61  82  63  85 /   5   0   0   5
GIF  59  81  62  81 /  10   0   0   5
SRQ  61  78  63  81 /  10   0   0   5
BKV  56  80  57  82 /  10   0   0   5
SPG  62  78  65  80 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 191908
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE THAT SHOWS UP AS A NICE SWIRL ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL DRIFT FROM NORTH FL OVER THE ATLANTIC AS RIDGING
FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC SLOWLY TAKES CONTROL. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.
COOL ADVECTION WILL BE TEMPERED WITH WARMER GULF TEMPERATURES BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO WILL A BLEND.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN VIA MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE PASSING AIRPORTS AND TIMES THIS AFTERNON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAIN SHOULD ALLEVIATE MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED DISPERSION INDEX VALUES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  80  63  80 /  10   0   0  10
FMY  63  83  63  85 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  60  81  62  81 /  10   0   0  10
SRQ  62  78  63  81 /  10   0   0  10
BKV  57  81  57  82 /  10   0   0  10
SPG  64  79  65  80 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...03/PAXTON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 191316
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


.DISCUSSION... CLOUDS IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW OVER NORTH
FLORIDA ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOST DENSE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. ALTHOUGH NO SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR. IN THE BROAD BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE GULF WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATES SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH -15C AT 500 AND -27C AT 400 MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE BUT INLAND AREAS WITH SOME HEATING COULD
SET OFF CONVECTION AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. OUTSIDE OF THAT
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS ARE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND SHOULD LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAIN SHOULD MITIGATE MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDEX VALUES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CP/TB/AM










000
FXUS62 KTBW 190823
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
423 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TOWARDS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PENINSULA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4.
SOME OF THIS MORNING/S STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
WIND AND HAIL CONCERN...THOUGH THE HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

AT 12Z...MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE ARRIVAL OF A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM...A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET OF NEARLY 40 KNOTS...AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ABOVE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. WITH THE FRONT ADVANCING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...EXPECT RAIN AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES TO
GENERALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE. THE BEST SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
PLACING 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100 M2/S2 OR GREATER ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THESE FACTORS LED TO A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION...LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 DEG C AS FAR SOUTH AS TAMPA BAY...MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO ALLOW ANY RAIN TO
MATERIALIZE. CURRENTLY BELIEVE BEST CHANCES ARE OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THOUGH NOT UNSEASONABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 60S.

.MID TERM (SUNDAY - MONDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CLOSED MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND
NOSES SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF. A DRIER SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON EASTER SUNDAY AND ON MONDAY AS
WELL WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO WILL A BLEND.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN VIA MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS ARE CREATING CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO BRIEF PATCHES
OF IFR THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SWFL TERMINALS AND LAL...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY...GUSTY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE THE STORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WETTING RAINS SHOULD MITIGATE MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED DISPERSION INDEX VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  62  80  63 /  20  20   0   0
FMY  80  63  82  63 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  76  60  81  62 /  20  10   0   0
SRQ  74  62  78  63 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  75  57  80  57 /  20  20   0   0
SPG  73  65  78  65 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL









000
FXUS62 KTBW 190211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART EXITED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE LEFT 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM EDT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL THREAT PRETTY LOW AND HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST DURING SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. REST OF MARINE FORECAST
LOOKS OK WITH NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  40  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  62  82 /  40  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  40  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  40  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  40  20  10  10
SPG  67  72  63  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 182204
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
604 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND GONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD POOL...500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14
TO -17 CELSIUS MOVES OVER THE REGION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  50  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  62  82 /  50  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  50  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  50  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  50  20  10  10
SPG  67  72  63  77 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...69/CLOSE
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 182003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 83 FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 HAS BEEN THE DROPPED FOR THE
COUNTIES OF HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...PASCO...
PINELLAS...AND SARASOTA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  60  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  61  82 /  60  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  60  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  60  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  68  73  63  78 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
UPDATE...09/RUDE










000
FXUS62 KTBW 181937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

.MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  60  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  61  82 /  60  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  60  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  60  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  68  73  63  78 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 181346
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS ON GULF WATERS...

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. A
BROAD COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW OF THE SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE ARE NOW
STARTING TO BRUSH THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. OTHER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH OVER INTERIOR FL FROM POLK NORTHWARD.
WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS IT SLIDES EAST TODAY THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREATS... DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. IN ADDITION RAINFALL WILL
BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/12Z...MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO LIFT BUT EXPECT
THESE TO RETURN LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN SHRA AND VCNTY
TSRA THAT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
EAST WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY THEN SW LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS CURRENTLY EASTERLY AND GUSTY BUT WILL BE
VEERING AND INCREASING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. A COMBINATION
OF ADVISORY AND CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE AND LOOK OK BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AROUND 10 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  66  74  60 /  70  60  20  10
FMY  85  70  81  61 /  40  60  20  10
GIF  83  67  79  58 /  60  60  20  10
SRQ  81  69  75  62 /  60  60  20  10
BKV  82  65  76  54 /  70  60  20  10
SPG  82  68  73  63 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND
     LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...11/MCKAUGHAN










000
FXUS62 KTBW 180803
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...
...ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE
(PW`S 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE) STREAMING NORTH INTO THE REGION ON AN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND AN INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS LIKELY TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
CLOSEST TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS VIA BUFKIT
DATA...AND MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-10 TO -12C AT 500MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE DURING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
A FEW TORNADOES.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES (POPS 60 PERCENT ) ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN
FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN GA AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF KJAX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FAR SOUTH. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE EXPECTED.

UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS ON EASTER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING TERMINALS TO MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS SUPPORTING A 6 MB
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WHICH IS SUPPORTING AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WINDS
REMAIN IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL AND WILL RETAIN THESE HEADLINES
IN THE 430 AM COASTAL PACKAGE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS EXPECTED. TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BRING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS TO THE GULF WATERS AND INLAND
WATERWAYS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS WITH NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED. INCREASING 20 FOOT
WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  66  74  60 /  70  60  20  10
FMY  85  70  81  62 /  40  60  20  10
GIF  83  67  79  58 /  60  60  20  10
SRQ  81  69  75  62 /  60  60  20  10
BKV  82  65  76  54 /  70  60  20  10
SPG  81  67  72  63 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...02/GARCIA









000
FXUS62 KTBW 180336 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1136 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20-60NM. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
WATERS. COASTAL MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
TO REFLECT THESE HEADLINES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DYING DOWN THIS EVENING. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH NO DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT OR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A BROAD MCS IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
LOW IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...SO A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY VALID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND THE ZONE
FORECAST WAS RESENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AVIATION...
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY 03Z
CAUSING SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THEN LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE CARRYING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND NOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  50  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  40  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  50  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  60  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  60  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...18/FLEMING
AVIATION...69/CLOSE









000
FXUS62 KTBW 180113
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DYING DOWN THIS EVENING. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH NO DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT OR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A BROAD MCS IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
LOW IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...SO A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY VALID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND THE ZONE
FORECAST WAS RESENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY 03Z
CAUSING SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THEN LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE CARRYING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND NOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  50  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  40  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  50  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  60  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  60  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...18/FLEMING
AVIATION...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 171937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - BROAD SCALE TROUGHING DOMINATED MUCH OF THE CONUS..WITH AN
AXIS FROM THE MANITOBA-ONTARIO BORDER TO THE TX BIG BEND AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY REGION...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
THAT SPRAWLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES RIDGED ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN FL FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE COVERS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WIND DOWN AS THE SHOWERS SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
AREAS. MEANWHILE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO GULF
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ON THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS NORTH FL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT. ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. THE GREAT THREATS WILL BE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TIMING GENERALLY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THERE IN THE AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS
WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TURN TIMING ALSO...TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 INCHES RANGE. SOME LOCALIZE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH ACROSS LEVY COUNTY TO SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH
FROM FRI MOORING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

.MID TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST AND NE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
STATE SAT WITH DECEASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN SLOW CLEARING OF THE
CLOUDS AND LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE PUSHING EAST ON MONDAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND 500 MB DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY TO BE THWARTED BY A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT TO END THE EXTENDED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
DRASTIC CHANGES BETWEEN AIR MASSES. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY THE WARMING
GULF WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WITH VCNTY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THEN GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
LATE NIGHT WITH VCNTY SHRA FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN EASTERLY SURGE THIS EVENING WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OR
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NE GULF
FRI VEER INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WEST AND NW LATE FRI
NIGHT OR EARLY SAT ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS WINDS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH
CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
BUT RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  30  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  30  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  20  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  30  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  30  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...GARCIA
AVIATION...69/CLOSE









000
FXUS62 KTBW 171306
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE RIDGED DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
BOUNDARY STRETCHED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SE FL AND SOUTH
OF THE FL KEYS. THE HIGH MAINTAINS ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CREEPS NORTH WITH
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF IT AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECASTS SEEM ON TRACK WITH
NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/12Z TO 18/12Z: PREVAILING BKN-OVC VFR CIGS WITH NE TO E-NE
WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN VCSH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT LIMITED MVFR TSRA BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE ON SOME OF THE WATERS WITH AN
ADVISORY ON THE TWO NORTHERN MOST SECTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADJUSTED SOME AND THE ADVISORY
LOWERED TO CAUTION ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE...AROUND 10 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  68  81  66 /  60  30  70  50
FMY  85  70  85  69 /  70  30  70  50
GIF  81  67  83  65 /  50  20  80  60
SRQ  82  69  82  68 /  60  30  70  50
BKV  80  65  82  63 /  40  40  80  60
SPG  81  69  81  68 /  60  30  70  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...74/WYNN










000
FXUS62 KTBW 170837
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
437 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. UPSTREAM A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO BORDER AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS INDUCING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR
IMAGERY SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...KEEPING AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSING ALONG ZONE
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MORNING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEVELOPING
RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE. THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4. GIVEN THE COLD H5 TEMPS AROUND -11/-12C...CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. IF
SOME DECENT BREAKS OPEN UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...AND IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH A LULL IN
THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WILL NEED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER DUE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
BEGINNING OF SOME DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AS PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ON RADAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NATURE COAST AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MID TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY. AT 12Z FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS A 500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...IT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING CLOSER TO
ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOW TRACK...THOUGH THE 00Z GFS IS MOVING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN MANY FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS FOR THE
MID TERM PERIOD.

CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK RIGHT NOW...THOUGH LOCALIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOCUSES ON THIS IN
THEIR DAY 2 AND 3 OUTLOOKS. IT IS NOTABLE THAT DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE PRODUCING RESPECTABLE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OF NEARLY 100 M2/S2...WITH THE 00Z NAM BEING THE
OUTLIER WITH SOME VALUES AS HIGH AS 200 M2/S2. WHILE THE INSTABILITY
FROM DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME THE WIND SHEAR
PEAKS...THE FORECAST OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE PUSHING EAST ON MONDAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND 500 MB DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY TO BE THWARTED BY A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT TO END THE EXTENDED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
DRASTIC CHANGES BETWEEN AIR MASSES. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY THE WARMING
GULF WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH AND
LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. ANY SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AS A RESULT...WILL NEED EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES
FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. ANOTHER
DECENT EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A
NEED FOR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA. HUMIDITY LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  68  81  66 /  60  30  70  50
FMY  85  70  85  69 /  70  30  70  50
GIF  81  67  83  65 /  50  20  80  60
SRQ  82  69  82  68 /  60  30  70  50
BKV  80  65  82  63 /  40  40  80  60
SPG  81  69  81  68 /  60  30  70  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...GARCIA






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