Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KTBW 011458 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS MADE BASED OFF OBSERVED
TRENDS. NO ZONE CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...HAVE A WONDERFUL
SUNDAY!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY SNEAKING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO MONDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  62  71  45 /   0  20  70  10
FMY  78  61  78  52 /   0  10  40  20
GIF  75  59  74  45 /   0  10  60  10
SRQ  75  62  73  48 /   0  10  60  10
BKV  75  59  70  36 /   0  20  70  10
SPG  72  62  70  51 /   0  20  60  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010850
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR WHERE LESS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. DURING
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE OUTLIER BEING
THE NAM WHICH IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH BRING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NATURE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA
BAY AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...AHEAD OF IT AND HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY AND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTHERN HALF TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE LAST TO AFFECT.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. FAIRLY
ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE IS FROM THE NAM/MET WHERE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
STAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE COOLER ECMWF AND COLDEST GFS.
FOR NOW DECIDED A BLEND WAS BEST...BUT WITHOUT TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
FROM THE WARM MET GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S DOWN
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST AND MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OR SO FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH.

WE WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH LEAVING OUR AREA WITH HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST LIES IN THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS ENERGY INITIALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BEFORE BEGINNING
TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. MODELS BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH LENDS TO A VERY
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE ARE DEALING
WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN
VARIATIONS WITHIN EACH MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE CLOSEST TO OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS NOT FAR OFF TIMING WISE
ALTHOUGH IT SHOWS A DEEPER LOW PASSING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE...ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEHIND
THE ECMWF. IN THE END...CHOSE TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AS BOTH THE UPPER-SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS COULD BE A DECENT RAIN MAKER AND DOES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF...WHEN...OR WHERE A
SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY IN THIS MORNINGS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BE WITH
US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH ERC AND WINDS BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  62  71  45 /   0  20  70  10
FMY  78  61  78  52 /   0  10  40  20
GIF  75  59  74  45 /   0  10  50  10
SRQ  76  61  73  48 /   0  10  60  10
BKV  75  59  70  36 /   0  20  70  10
SPG  72  62  70  51 /   0  20  60  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010850
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR WHERE LESS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. DURING
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE OUTLIER BEING
THE NAM WHICH IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH BRING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NATURE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA
BAY AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...AHEAD OF IT AND HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY AND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTHERN HALF TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE LAST TO AFFECT.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. FAIRLY
ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE IS FROM THE NAM/MET WHERE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
STAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE COOLER ECMWF AND COLDEST GFS.
FOR NOW DECIDED A BLEND WAS BEST...BUT WITHOUT TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
FROM THE WARM MET GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S DOWN
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST AND MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OR SO FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH.

WE WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH LEAVING OUR AREA WITH HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST LIES IN THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS ENERGY INITIALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BEFORE BEGINNING
TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. MODELS BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH LENDS TO A VERY
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE ARE DEALING
WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN
VARIATIONS WITHIN EACH MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE CLOSEST TO OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS NOT FAR OFF TIMING WISE
ALTHOUGH IT SHOWS A DEEPER LOW PASSING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE...ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEHIND
THE ECMWF. IN THE END...CHOSE TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AS BOTH THE UPPER-SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS COULD BE A DECENT RAIN MAKER AND DOES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF...WHEN...OR WHERE A
SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY IN THIS MORNINGS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BE WITH
US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH ERC AND WINDS BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  62  71  45 /   0  20  70  10
FMY  78  61  78  52 /   0  10  40  20
GIF  75  59  74  45 /   0  10  50  10
SRQ  76  61  73  48 /   0  10  60  10
BKV  75  59  70  36 /   0  20  70  10
SPG  72  62  70  51 /   0  20  60  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 010149 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS EVIDENT ON THE EVENING RAOB. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB HOWEVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS WINDS HAVE TAKEN
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SUNDAY BUT THEN TIGHTENS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING MID WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010149 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS EVIDENT ON THE EVENING RAOB. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB HOWEVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS WINDS HAVE TAKEN
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SUNDAY BUT THEN TIGHTENS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING MID WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010149 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS EVIDENT ON THE EVENING RAOB. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB HOWEVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS WINDS HAVE TAKEN
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SUNDAY BUT THEN TIGHTENS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING MID WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010149 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS EVIDENT ON THE EVENING RAOB. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB HOWEVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS WINDS HAVE TAKEN
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SUNDAY BUT THEN TIGHTENS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING MID WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311939
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH L/W TROUGH EXITING THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE.  CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM U/L LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW...AND WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM S/W WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
VEERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  U/L DISTURBANCE DIGGING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL ABSORB SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.  A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH OVERALL U/L DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
FURTHER AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST IT WILL PULL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN EXITING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VIA MODEL
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE FROPA...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY PLEASANT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH AN RETURN EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING MILDER CONDITIONS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A PESKY CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA/MEXICO REGION OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST IT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL STILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER SOME WITH THE OVERALL PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS
LOW BUT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AMPLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT AFFECTS THE
REGION...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY
(TRAILING THIS SYSTEM) MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.

DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DRIER AIR WILL PRECLUDE RAIN
CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME AGAIN DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO TIGHTEN
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.  GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311939
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH L/W TROUGH EXITING THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE.  CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM U/L LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW...AND WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM S/W WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
VEERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  U/L DISTURBANCE DIGGING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL ABSORB SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.  A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH OVERALL U/L DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
FURTHER AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST IT WILL PULL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN EXITING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VIA MODEL
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE FROPA...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY PLEASANT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH AN RETURN EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING MILDER CONDITIONS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A PESKY CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA/MEXICO REGION OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST IT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL STILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER SOME WITH THE OVERALL PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS
LOW BUT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AMPLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT AFFECTS THE
REGION...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY
(TRAILING THIS SYSTEM) MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.

DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DRIER AIR WILL PRECLUDE RAIN
CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME AGAIN DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO TIGHTEN
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.  GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 311439
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
939 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RECOVER ALONG
WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS. IDEAL
WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL..AND
MID 70S SOUTH.  CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311439
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
939 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RECOVER ALONG
WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS. IDEAL
WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL..AND
MID 70S SOUTH.  CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 310900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL SETUP SOME WEAK RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TODAY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. IN GENERAL WE
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH AND THEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL DEVELOP/INTENSIFY LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES
REMAINING MOSTLY ON THE PLUS SIDE OF ZERO. IF ENOUGH HEATING
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...THERE COULD BE
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT AMPLE
CLOUD COVER WILL CURB HEATING KEEPING ACTUAL THUNDER CHANCES AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT.

THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER-LEVELS BECOME MORE ZONAL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A SLOW MOVING
CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS WITH NO REAL NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION UNTIL THE
SYSTEM HAS PASSED US BY. THE CANADIAN MODEL DOES HAVE SOME PHASING
OF THE STREAMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WE COULD SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THIS NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MORE SUBDUED SOLUTIONS WHICH STILL RESULT IN GOOD
RAIN CHANCES BUT LESS OF A RISK OF AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE DIGGING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND SHIFT TO
A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION...POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS...
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING AND SHIFT
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VEER AROUND
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH ERC AND WINDS BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...THEN AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  53  74  62 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  74  53  77  62 /   0   0   5  10
GIF  70  51  76  61 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  72  51  76  62 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  69  46  75  60 /   0   0   0  30
SPG  68  56  72  63 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 310900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL SETUP SOME WEAK RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TODAY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. IN GENERAL WE
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH AND THEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL DEVELOP/INTENSIFY LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES
REMAINING MOSTLY ON THE PLUS SIDE OF ZERO. IF ENOUGH HEATING
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...THERE COULD BE
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT AMPLE
CLOUD COVER WILL CURB HEATING KEEPING ACTUAL THUNDER CHANCES AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT.

THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER-LEVELS BECOME MORE ZONAL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A SLOW MOVING
CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS WITH NO REAL NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION UNTIL THE
SYSTEM HAS PASSED US BY. THE CANADIAN MODEL DOES HAVE SOME PHASING
OF THE STREAMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WE COULD SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THIS NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MORE SUBDUED SOLUTIONS WHICH STILL RESULT IN GOOD
RAIN CHANCES BUT LESS OF A RISK OF AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE DIGGING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND SHIFT TO
A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION...POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS...
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING AND SHIFT
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VEER AROUND
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH ERC AND WINDS BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...THEN AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  53  74  62 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  74  53  77  62 /   0   0   5  10
GIF  70  51  76  61 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  72  51  76  62 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  69  46  75  60 /   0   0   0  30
SPG  68  56  72  63 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 310143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
EARLY THIS EVENING - THE PATTERN ALOFT HAD A BROAD LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...A RELAXED RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN FL THEN STRETCHED
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

OVERNIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE EASES EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OUT OF
SOUTH FL AND INTO CUBA. LIMITED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AFTER DAYBREAK SAT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S...FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...SUPPORT THE FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY
COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. NO
UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
31/00Z-01/00Z. VFR PREVAILS. DRY COLD FRONT EXITS THIS EVENING...
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO JUST FEW CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE.
NW WINDS TURN TO NORTH THEN NE AT 6-12KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THIS
WIND INCREASE RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN EVENING EASTERLY SURGE MAY AGAIN BRING WINDS
UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE S/SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WITH
GENERALLY N/NW WINDS IN PLACE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NE WITH THE
INCREASE IN SPEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  47  71  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  53  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS










000
FXUS62 KTBW 310143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
EARLY THIS EVENING - THE PATTERN ALOFT HAD A BROAD LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...A RELAXED RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN FL THEN STRETCHED
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

OVERNIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE EASES EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OUT OF
SOUTH FL AND INTO CUBA. LIMITED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AFTER DAYBREAK SAT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S...FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...SUPPORT THE FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY
COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. NO
UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
31/00Z-01/00Z. VFR PREVAILS. DRY COLD FRONT EXITS THIS EVENING...
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO JUST FEW CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE.
NW WINDS TURN TO NORTH THEN NE AT 6-12KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THIS
WIND INCREASE RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN EVENING EASTERLY SURGE MAY AGAIN BRING WINDS
UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE S/SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WITH
GENERALLY N/NW WINDS IN PLACE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NE WITH THE
INCREASE IN SPEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  47  71  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  53  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS











000
FXUS62 KTBW 301928
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
228 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG REX BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW OVERRIDING THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TO WESTERN CANADA...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.  STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE HAS CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CA IN SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK
WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.  AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ATTM...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND U/L
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH...DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
PROGRESSED HALFWAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PUSH OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE TRAILING
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MORE ZONAL COMPARED TO THE
GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DYNAMICS OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHAT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THERE MAY BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 025-030 WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAINLY AFFECT TPA/PIE/SRQ/LAL FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ALSO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  71  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301928
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
228 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG REX BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW OVERRIDING THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TO WESTERN CANADA...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.  STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE HAS CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CA IN SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK
WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.  AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ATTM...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND U/L
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH...DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
PROGRESSED HALFWAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PUSH OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE TRAILING
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MORE ZONAL COMPARED TO THE
GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DYNAMICS OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHAT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THERE MAY BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 025-030 WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAINLY AFFECT TPA/PIE/SRQ/LAL FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ALSO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  71  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 301421
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING
FROST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND VEERING EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY...THEN VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS FRONT AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ALONG
THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301421
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING
FROST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND VEERING EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY...THEN VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS FRONT AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ALONG
THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY
AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND 40S AND
LOW 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH A NEAR ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES LEAVING THE CUTOFF LOW BEHIND OVER
MEXICO. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS NOW GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE AREA MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANT ENERGY OF THE
CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NO MATTER WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

NO EXTREME TEMPERATURES...EITHER REAL WARM OR REAL COLD...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NIGHT AND DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AND NIGHTS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICKUP BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
TURN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL GULF ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS BORDERING ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH
WINDS SPEEDS MODERATING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PULLING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  46  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  46  69  51 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  69  47  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  51  67  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY
AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND 40S AND
LOW 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH A NEAR ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES LEAVING THE CUTOFF LOW BEHIND OVER
MEXICO. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS NOW GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE AREA MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANT ENERGY OF THE
CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NO MATTER WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

NO EXTREME TEMPERATURES...EITHER REAL WARM OR REAL COLD...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NIGHT AND DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AND NIGHTS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICKUP BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
TURN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL GULF ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS BORDERING ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH
WINDS SPEEDS MODERATING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PULLING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  46  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  46  69  51 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  69  47  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  51  67  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LEADING THIS AMPLIFICATION IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE TN
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT CHANGES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON ITS
WAY EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED TRAILING
BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/ TN VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING DOWN TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING TOWARD LEVY COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THE TAMPA AREA FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POINTS SOUTH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/QG FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND NOT MUCH COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PROB LOOKING AT JUST A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MARK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A QUIET...COOL...AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
TO BE EXPECTED FOR ALL. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW-SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN FOR
KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF VFR
LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 10-14 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS POTENTIAL APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE HIGH POSITION TO THE NORTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS RELAXING DURING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  53  69  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  52  73  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  50  71  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
SRQ  51  70  47  71 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  42  70  39  69 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  56  69  51  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LEADING THIS AMPLIFICATION IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE TN
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT CHANGES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON ITS
WAY EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED TRAILING
BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/ TN VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING DOWN TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING TOWARD LEVY COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THE TAMPA AREA FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POINTS SOUTH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/QG FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND NOT MUCH COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PROB LOOKING AT JUST A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MARK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A QUIET...COOL...AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
TO BE EXPECTED FOR ALL. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW-SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN FOR
KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF VFR
LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 10-14 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS POTENTIAL APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE HIGH POSITION TO THE NORTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS RELAXING DURING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  53  69  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  52  73  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  50  71  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
SRQ  51  70  47  71 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  42  70  39  69 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  56  69  51  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 291918
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)... MAIN NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A WEST COAST RIDGE...RUNNING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A S/W
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. OUT WEST...SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF OVER THE BAJA CA REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN L/L
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.  DRY AIR ALOFT IS HOLDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT U/L SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING A DRY FLORIDA WINTER DAY. A NEW SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER FLORIDA. AS THE SYSTEM DIGS EAST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRINGS THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH RETURNING THE AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

FOR THE FORECAST...PREFERRED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS EVEN THE MOST
DRASTIC CONTRASTS BETWEEN MAJOR GLOBAL GUIDANCE WAS MINIMAL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FORECAST THOUGH TIMING
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR. DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTIONS OF THUNDER FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT
TIMING OF THE BEST SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AT ALL
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  53  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  73  52  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  52  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  68  42  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  67  57  69  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities