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000
FXUS62 KTBW 040030
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD AIR ALOFT (-10C AT 500MB) HELPING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
ENHANCE UPDRAFT VELOCITIES COMBINED WITH GOOD SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEING OBSERVED WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL.

EARLY THIS EVENING 88D RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
STORMS FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH POLK
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AND THEN CONTINUING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WEST
FROM THE CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO SOUTH...OTHERWISE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM MID EVENING ON AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL THIN OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WILL WAIT
UNTIL MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO
REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE
CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ON TAP
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY...THEN
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA
RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8
T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE TAMPA BAY WATERS SOUTH TO BONITA
BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH
AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO REAL
CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040030
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD AIR ALOFT (-10C AT 500MB) HELPING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
ENHANCE UPDRAFT VELOCITIES COMBINED WITH GOOD SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEING OBSERVED WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL.

EARLY THIS EVENING 88D RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
STORMS FROM SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH POLK
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AND THEN CONTINUING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WEST
FROM THE CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO SOUTH...OTHERWISE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE FROM MID EVENING ON AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL THIN OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WILL WAIT
UNTIL MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO
REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE
CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ON TAP
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY...THEN
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA
RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8
T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE TAMPA BAY WATERS SOUTH TO BONITA
BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH
AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO REAL
CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 031850
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  91 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  30  60  30  40
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  50  60
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  40  30  60
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 031850
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  91 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  30  60  30  40
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  50  60
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  40  30  60
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 031850
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  91 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  30  60  30  40
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  50  60
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  40  30  60
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 031850
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  91 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  30  60  30  40
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  50  60
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  40  30  60
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 031540 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  60  50
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  40  30
SPG  94  80  92  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 031540 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  60  50
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  40  30
SPG  94  80  92  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 031540 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  60  50
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  40  30
SPG  94  80  92  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 031540 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  60  50
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  40  30
SPG  94  80  92  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 031538
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  60  50
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  40  30
SPG  94  80  92  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 031538
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  60  50
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  40  30
SPG  94  80  92  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE L/W TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HOLD
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND WEAK SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

03/00Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS 50T OF -10.7C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE.  WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT...HOWEVER PCPW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 COMBINED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHICH WILL
LIMIT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME NORTH WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INLAND BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.  NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCREASING AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  CAA COMBINED WITH STRONG L/L CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW PULSE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHERE
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN REGION OF DEEPEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  INCREASED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...HOWEVER THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGENCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM MOVES
AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER
LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS MEANS WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED CONCENSUS
OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IMPACTING PGD/RSW/FMY
BETWEEN 19-23Z.  TIMING VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ 16-20Z...AND LAL 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL RUN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED/SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  30  50  40
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  93  80  92  80 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE L/W TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HOLD
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND WEAK SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

03/00Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS 50T OF -10.7C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE.  WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT...HOWEVER PCPW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 COMBINED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHICH WILL
LIMIT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME NORTH WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INLAND BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.  NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCREASING AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  CAA COMBINED WITH STRONG L/L CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW PULSE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHERE
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN REGION OF DEEPEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  INCREASED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...HOWEVER THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGENCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM MOVES
AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER
LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS MEANS WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED CONCENSUS
OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IMPACTING PGD/RSW/FMY
BETWEEN 19-23Z.  TIMING VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ 16-20Z...AND LAL 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL RUN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED/SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  30  50  40
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  93  80  92  80 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 030755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE L/W TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HOLD
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND WEAK SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

03/00Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS 50T OF -10.7C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE.  WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT...HOWEVER PCPW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 COMBINED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHICH WILL
LIMIT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME NORTH WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INLAND BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.  NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCREASING AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  CAA COMBINED WITH STRONG L/L CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW PULSE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHERE
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN REGION OF DEEPEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  INCREASED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...HOWEVER THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGENCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM MOVES
AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER
LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS MEANS WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED CONCENSUS
OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IMPACTING PGD/RSW/FMY
BETWEEN 19-23Z.  TIMING VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ 16-20Z...AND LAL 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL RUN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED/SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  30  50  40
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  93  80  92  80 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE L/W TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HOLD
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND WEAK SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

03/00Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS 50T OF -10.7C WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE.  WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT...HOWEVER PCPW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 COMBINED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHICH WILL
LIMIT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME NORTH WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INLAND BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.  NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCREASING AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  CAA COMBINED WITH STRONG L/L CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW PULSE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHERE
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN REGION OF DEEPEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  INCREASED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...HOWEVER THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGENCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM MOVES
AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER
LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS MEANS WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED CONCENSUS
OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IMPACTING PGD/RSW/FMY
BETWEEN 19-23Z.  TIMING VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ 16-20Z...AND LAL 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL RUN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED/SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  96  76  95  75 /  40  30  50  40
SRQ  94  77  92  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  95  73  93  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  93  80  92  80 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 030035
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AGAIN HELPED
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH IN TURN CREATED STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A SEVERE STORM NOTED
OVER LEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS
OBSERVED NEAR BONITA BEACH. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY POSSIBLY
SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOWS...OTHERWISE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO
OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THEN
SOME  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8
T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO REAL CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 030035
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AGAIN HELPED
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH IN TURN CREATED STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A SEVERE STORM NOTED
OVER LEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS
OBSERVED NEAR BONITA BEACH. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY POSSIBLY
SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOWS...OTHERWISE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO
OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THEN
SOME  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8
T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO REAL CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030035
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AGAIN HELPED
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH IN TURN CREATED STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A SEVERE STORM NOTED
OVER LEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS
OBSERVED NEAR BONITA BEACH. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY POSSIBLY
SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOWS...OTHERWISE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO
OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THEN
SOME  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8
T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO REAL CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE
WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SITUATION OVER OR
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...STILL ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE SUGGESTS AN EVENING SEA-BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS
POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
LIKELY POP NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... MID TERM PERIOD
BEGINS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WARM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S...HIGHEST TEMPS INLAND. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 90S IF
CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING THAT HIGH. SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED SO POPS IN THE 40/50 RANGE SHOULD
SUFFICE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH WARM TEMPS AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE HEAT
INDICIES WILL RUN IN THE 100-105 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
4TH SO ANYONE PLANNING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID ANY HEAT-RELATED CONDITIONS.

AS WE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH AFTN POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40/50 RANGE.

MODELS HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED-THU) WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION BUT WONT BITE OFF ON THIS TOO
MUCH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS SO OVERALL POP FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE EVOLVED EAST OF KTPA/KPIE...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THESE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLAL/KSRQ...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS DIMINISH BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  93 /  20  40  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  93 /  70  60  30  40
GIF  75  95  76  94 /  60  60  40  50
SRQ  77  91  77  92 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  72  94  72  94 /  20  30  30  40
SPG  80  92  80  92 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA/GUSACK
MCKAUGHAN...LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT





000
FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE
WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SITUATION OVER OR
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...STILL ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE SUGGESTS AN EVENING SEA-BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS
POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
LIKELY POP NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... MID TERM PERIOD
BEGINS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WARM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S...HIGHEST TEMPS INLAND. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 90S IF
CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING THAT HIGH. SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED SO POPS IN THE 40/50 RANGE SHOULD
SUFFICE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH WARM TEMPS AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE HEAT
INDICIES WILL RUN IN THE 100-105 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
4TH SO ANYONE PLANNING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID ANY HEAT-RELATED CONDITIONS.

AS WE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH AFTN POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40/50 RANGE.

MODELS HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED-THU) WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION BUT WONT BITE OFF ON THIS TOO
MUCH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS SO OVERALL POP FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE EVOLVED EAST OF KTPA/KPIE...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THESE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLAL/KSRQ...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS DIMINISH BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  93 /  20  40  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  93 /  70  60  30  40
GIF  75  95  76  94 /  60  60  40  50
SRQ  77  91  77  92 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  72  94  72  94 /  20  30  30  40
SPG  80  92  80  92 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA/GUSACK
MCKAUGHAN...LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT




000
FXUS62 KTBW 021324
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST
VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY
DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF
MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH.
THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST
STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN
INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF
YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH
IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND
THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE
VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL
LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A
HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM
SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S.

STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH
THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND
KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FMY  94  76  91  76 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  94  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  40
SRQ  92  76  89  77 /  30  10  30  20
BKV  93  72  90  72 /  40  10  40  30
SPG  92  80  89  80 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 021324
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST
VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY
DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF
MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH.
THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST
STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN
INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF
YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH
IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND
THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE
VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL
LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A
HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM
SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S.

STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH
THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND
KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FMY  94  76  91  76 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  94  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  40
SRQ  92  76  89  77 /  30  10  30  20
BKV  93  72  90  72 /  40  10  40  30
SPG  92  80  89  80 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK





000
FXUS62 KTBW 021324
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST
VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY
DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF
MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH.
THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST
STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN
INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF
YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH
IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND
THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE
VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL
LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A
HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM
SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S.

STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH
THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND
KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FMY  94  76  91  76 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  94  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  40
SRQ  92  76  89  77 /  30  10  30  20
BKV  93  72  90  72 /  40  10  40  30
SPG  92  80  89  80 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK





000
FXUS62 KTBW 021324
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST
VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY
DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF
MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH.
THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST
STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN
INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF
YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH
IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND
THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE
VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL
LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.

LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A
HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM
SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S.

STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH
THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND
KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FMY  94  76  91  76 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  94  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  40
SRQ  92  76  89  77 /  30  10  30  20
BKV  93  72  90  72 /  40  10  40  30
SPG  92  80  89  80 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
READJUST THE TROUGH FROM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
BY TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. THE BROAD AND
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS... BUT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES... SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF THAT DRIFTS ONSHORE
LATE IN THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS
GET A LATER START AROUND MIDDAY IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND LATER
AFTERNOON SOUTH AROUND FORT MYERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AN U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN U/L RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE U/L TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE U/L
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES SPREADING
INLAND AND INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY.  DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...OUTFLOWS
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR MAY PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

AS THE U/L RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LOWER POPS AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.  DUE
TO THE STRONG INSOLATION AND INCREASING DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AN
ISOLATED PULSE STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL VCTS EXPECTED EARLIER AT
NORTHERN AIRPORTS AROUND MIDDAY AND LATER AFTERNOON FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CREATE A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO
BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TO THE NORTH
WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUMMER CONTINUES WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  40  20
FMY  94  76  94  76 /  40  30  40  40
GIF  95  76  95  76 /  40  40  50  40
SRQ  92  78  91  78 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  93  72  93  74 /  30  20  40  20
SPG  92  80  92  80 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/EO




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
READJUST THE TROUGH FROM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
BY TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. THE BROAD AND
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS... BUT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES... SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF THAT DRIFTS ONSHORE
LATE IN THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS
GET A LATER START AROUND MIDDAY IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND LATER
AFTERNOON SOUTH AROUND FORT MYERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AN U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN U/L RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE U/L TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE U/L
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES SPREADING
INLAND AND INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY.  DUE TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...OUTFLOWS
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR MAY PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

AS THE U/L RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LOWER POPS AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.  DUE
TO THE STRONG INSOLATION AND INCREASING DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AN
ISOLATED PULSE STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL VCTS EXPECTED EARLIER AT
NORTHERN AIRPORTS AROUND MIDDAY AND LATER AFTERNOON FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CREATE A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO
BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TO THE NORTH
WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUMMER CONTINUES WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  40  20
FMY  94  76  94  76 /  40  30  40  40
GIF  95  76  95  76 /  40  40  50  40
SRQ  92  78  91  78 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  93  72  93  74 /  30  20  40  20
SPG  92  80  92  80 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/EO





000
FXUS62 KTBW 020044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT HELPED TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ONE OVER LEE
COUNTY AND ANOTHER NEAR THE HIGHLANDS/POLK COUNTY BORDERS BOTH
OF WHICH PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF OVER HILLSBOROUGH...
MANATEE...PINELLAS...AND PASCO COUNTIES AS A STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...OTHERWISE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE
WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINS OUT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE
EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
THEN SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
18Z FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST
AT 8 T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO
BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TO THE NORTH
WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 020044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT HELPED TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ONE OVER LEE
COUNTY AND ANOTHER NEAR THE HIGHLANDS/POLK COUNTY BORDERS BOTH
OF WHICH PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF OVER HILLSBOROUGH...
MANATEE...PINELLAS...AND PASCO COUNTIES AS A STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...OTHERWISE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE
WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINS OUT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE
EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
THEN SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
18Z FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST
AT 8 T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO
BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TO THE NORTH
WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT HELPED TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ONE OVER LEE
COUNTY AND ANOTHER NEAR THE HIGHLANDS/POLK COUNTY BORDERS BOTH
OF WHICH PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF OVER HILLSBOROUGH...
MANATEE...PINELLAS...AND PASCO COUNTIES AS A STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...OTHERWISE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE
WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINS OUT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE
EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
THEN SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
18Z FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST
AT 8 T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO
BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TO THE NORTH
WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 011914
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A STOUT RIDGE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE GREAT BASIN/ 4
CORNERS REGION...TROUGHING WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AXIS
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND A RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC REACHED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS STRUNG OUT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN UP TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED IN PLACE AS IT SPREADS OUT
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EASTERN TROUGINESS
RESIDES IN PLACE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH IT/S
BASE...BRUSHING NORTHERN FL AT TIMES. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF... MEANDERING ACROSS FL. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC...
ACROSS FL BETWEEN BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...ALOFT AND SURFACE...ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA
FROM EAST TO WEST PROVIDES A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES...SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES RUNNING 1.6 TO ALMOST 1.9 INCHES. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LIMITED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE
GULF THAT DRIFTS ON SHORE LATE IN THE MORNING...MORE SO IN THE
NORTH DUE TO PREVAILING SW AND WEST WINDS. ACTIVITY INCREASES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON INLAND...CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST IN THE NORTH
AND CLOSER TO THE GULF IN THE SOUTH...WHERE IT MAXES OUT DUE TO
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...KEEPING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS IN OUR FORECAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE STORM PATTERNS
EACH DAY RATHER INDISTINCT. WITH MANY PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEKEND... JUST EXPECT AND PLAN TO DODGE A STORM OR TWO EACH
DAY...IN ALMOST ANY LOCATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWER 90S COMMON DURING THE
DAY AND HEAT INDICES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 100.
ANOTHER ANY SUMMER STORMS CAN BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THERE ARE NO SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES SEEN
THAT WOULD SUGGEST LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANY OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z-02/18Z. CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT
WILL KEEP VCTS INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD
INTO OR EAST OF SOUTHERN TERMINAL LATER AND THEN POSSIBLY DRIFT
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING...HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR AND CARRIED VCTS
INTO THE EVENING. VFR THROUGH REST OF PERIOD WITH VCSH NEAR THE
END.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL FL FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH RATHER MODEST WINDS AND SEAS...NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS
AND LESS THAN 4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  40
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  40  40  30  40
GIF  75  95  76  95 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  76  92  78  91 /  10  20  20  30
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  10  30  20  40
SPG  80  92  80  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011914
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A STOUT RIDGE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE GREAT BASIN/ 4
CORNERS REGION...TROUGHING WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AXIS
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND A RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC REACHED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS STRUNG OUT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN UP TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED IN PLACE AS IT SPREADS OUT
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EASTERN TROUGINESS
RESIDES IN PLACE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH IT/S
BASE...BRUSHING NORTHERN FL AT TIMES. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF... MEANDERING ACROSS FL. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC...
ACROSS FL BETWEEN BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...ALOFT AND SURFACE...ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA
FROM EAST TO WEST PROVIDES A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES...SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES RUNNING 1.6 TO ALMOST 1.9 INCHES. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LIMITED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE
GULF THAT DRIFTS ON SHORE LATE IN THE MORNING...MORE SO IN THE
NORTH DUE TO PREVAILING SW AND WEST WINDS. ACTIVITY INCREASES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON INLAND...CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST IN THE NORTH
AND CLOSER TO THE GULF IN THE SOUTH...WHERE IT MAXES OUT DUE TO
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...KEEPING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS IN OUR FORECAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE STORM PATTERNS
EACH DAY RATHER INDISTINCT. WITH MANY PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEKEND... JUST EXPECT AND PLAN TO DODGE A STORM OR TWO EACH
DAY...IN ALMOST ANY LOCATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWER 90S COMMON DURING THE
DAY AND HEAT INDICES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 100.
ANOTHER ANY SUMMER STORMS CAN BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THERE ARE NO SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES SEEN
THAT WOULD SUGGEST LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANY OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z-02/18Z. CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT
WILL KEEP VCTS INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD
INTO OR EAST OF SOUTHERN TERMINAL LATER AND THEN POSSIBLY DRIFT
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING...HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR AND CARRIED VCTS
INTO THE EVENING. VFR THROUGH REST OF PERIOD WITH VCSH NEAR THE
END.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL FL FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH RATHER MODEST WINDS AND SEAS...NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS
AND LESS THAN 4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  40
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  40  40  30  40
GIF  75  95  76  95 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  76  92  78  91 /  10  20  20  30
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  10  30  20  40
SPG  80  92  80  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 011314
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH AN AXIS
BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE AXIS WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WHILE SOUTH OF
THERE SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE 12Z TBW RAOB INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.62...CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TODAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE BUT A BIT
LESS THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THIS.
ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS PROPAGATING INLAND AND FILLING IN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...SHIFTING
INLAND EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH DUR TO SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WEST
WINDS. THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECASTS UPDATED BY 10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 02/12Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WESTERLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL TEND TO PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE COASTAL WATERS...BETWEEN TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH SPLIT FLOW. WEST WINDS NORTH OF THE
AXIS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE AXIS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011314
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH AN AXIS
BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE AXIS WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WHILE SOUTH OF
THERE SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE 12Z TBW RAOB INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.62...CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TODAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE BUT A BIT
LESS THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THIS.
ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS PROPAGATING INLAND AND FILLING IN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...SHIFTING
INLAND EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH DUR TO SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WEST
WINDS. THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECASTS UPDATED BY 10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 02/12Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WESTERLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL TEND TO PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE COASTAL WATERS...BETWEEN TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH SPLIT FLOW. WEST WINDS NORTH OF THE
AXIS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE AXIS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 011314
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH AN AXIS
BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE AXIS WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WHILE SOUTH OF
THERE SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE 12Z TBW RAOB INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.62...CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TODAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE BUT A BIT
LESS THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THIS.
ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS PROPAGATING INLAND AND FILLING IN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...SHIFTING
INLAND EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH DUR TO SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WEST
WINDS. THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECASTS UPDATED BY 10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 02/12Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WESTERLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL TEND TO PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE COASTAL WATERS...BETWEEN TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH SPLIT FLOW. WEST WINDS NORTH OF THE
AXIS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE AXIS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 011314
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH AN AXIS
BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE AXIS WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WHILE SOUTH OF
THERE SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE 12Z TBW RAOB INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.62...CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TODAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE BUT A BIT
LESS THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THIS.
ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS PROPAGATING INLAND AND FILLING IN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...SHIFTING
INLAND EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH DUR TO SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WEST
WINDS. THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECASTS UPDATED BY 10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 02/12Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WESTERLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL TEND TO PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE COASTAL WATERS...BETWEEN TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH SPLIT FLOW. WEST WINDS NORTH OF THE
AXIS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE AXIS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 010746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. E/SE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...S/SE CENTRAL...AND W/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY WITH MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TIMING NORTH AND AFTERNOON TIMING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE
70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS
LOWERED FOR TODAY WITH THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND NO STATEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TODAY...THOUGH A FEW RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS STILL
POSSIBLE NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FLATTENS OUT ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS IN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL REORIENT THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY. ON THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH BRINGING MORE OF THE AREA INTO EASTERLY FLOW
AND LATER THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. AS THE LONG WAVE DRIFTS EAST BY
MONDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A COOL FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH A CLOUDIER SCENARIO EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL
WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...WITH SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 010746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. E/SE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...S/SE CENTRAL...AND W/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY WITH MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TIMING NORTH AND AFTERNOON TIMING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE
70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS
LOWERED FOR TODAY WITH THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND NO STATEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TODAY...THOUGH A FEW RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS STILL
POSSIBLE NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FLATTENS OUT ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS IN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL REORIENT THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY. ON THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH BRINGING MORE OF THE AREA INTO EASTERLY FLOW
AND LATER THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. AS THE LONG WAVE DRIFTS EAST BY
MONDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A COOL FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH A CLOUDIER SCENARIO EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL
WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...WITH SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON





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