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000
FXUS62 KTBW 201927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 201927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 201246
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

TAKING A PEAK AT THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...THE
COLUMN IS STILL VERY DRY. FAIRLY OBVIOUS WHY OUR SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONE CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY FEATURE/WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY REALLY IS JUST A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...AND SHOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY
AS THE LOW REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN
OUR WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES.

REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4
NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH.
LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW...JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN
MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY SARASOTA TO
SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND
SOUTHWARD. INHERITED FORECAST HAS CHANCE 30-40% POPS FOR THESE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE
MUCH WITH THIS NEXT RUN...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
DOWN SOUTH. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES ARE RAISED...ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAS A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THESE PATCHES ARE QUICKLY
LIFTING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND. EXPECTING GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 201246
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

TAKING A PEAK AT THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...THE
COLUMN IS STILL VERY DRY. FAIRLY OBVIOUS WHY OUR SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONE CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY FEATURE/WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY REALLY IS JUST A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...AND SHOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY
AS THE LOW REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN
OUR WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES.

REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4
NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH.
LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW...JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN
MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY SARASOTA TO
SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND
SOUTHWARD. INHERITED FORECAST HAS CHANCE 30-40% POPS FOR THESE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE
MUCH WITH THIS NEXT RUN...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
DOWN SOUTH. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES ARE RAISED...ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAS A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THESE PATCHES ARE QUICKLY
LIFTING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND. EXPECTING GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONT STILL HANGING ON ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...THE ONLY RAIN
NOTED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN A CONVERGENT BAND OVER ON THE EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A DRY FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR TODAY...THOUGH STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
RAIN SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH IT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OTHER PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF...WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AT COASTAL SITES AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL
BECOME LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION FORMS. WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONT STILL HANGING ON ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...THE ONLY RAIN
NOTED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN A CONVERGENT BAND OVER ON THE EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A DRY FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR TODAY...THOUGH STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
RAIN SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH IT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OTHER PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF...WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AT COASTAL SITES AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL
BECOME LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION FORMS. WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL









000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL








000
FXUS62 KTBW 191800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT
DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (T0NIGHT AND MONDAY)...
LONG WAVE TROF ALONG EASTERN U.S. MOVED OFFSHORE WHILE SECONDARY
TROF IN NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 00Z TUESDAY. DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS
TRYING TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST HAS A
HANDLE ON THAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR CONTINUE
TO BE 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
FEATURE CLOSING OFF NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL WEST-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO LIFT
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL PASS BY PERIODICALLY...ALLOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO TEMPORARILY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GOMEX...BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLUTION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE 10-13Z INLAND AREAS (KLAL).

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
COASTAL ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS LOWEST HUMIDITY 40 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  88  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  60  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  85  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE








000
FXUS62 KTBW 191315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN MEANS NO UPDATES NEEDED TO AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.65 INCH PRECIP WATER...WHICH IS
ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 3500 FT WOULD BREAK AT 87 DEGREES...WHICH
IS JUST BELOW FORECAST HIGH TEMP AWAY FROM COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD ALL SITES. NAM MODEL AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG THIS
MORNING EVEN THOUGH NONE FORMED. HOWEVER...KTPA DID HAVE SOME
FEW012. WILL PUT 6SM BR IN LAKELAND (KLAL) BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
COASTAL AIRPORTS DUE TO DRY ATMOS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVER...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH







000
FXUS62 KTBW 191315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN MEANS NO UPDATES NEEDED TO AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.65 INCH PRECIP WATER...WHICH IS
ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 3500 FT WOULD BREAK AT 87 DEGREES...WHICH
IS JUST BELOW FORECAST HIGH TEMP AWAY FROM COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD ALL SITES. NAM MODEL AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG THIS
MORNING EVEN THOUGH NONE FORMED. HOWEVER...KTPA DID HAVE SOME
FEW012. WILL PUT 6SM BR IN LAKELAND (KLAL) BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
COASTAL AIRPORTS DUE TO DRY ATMOS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVER...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH






000
FXUS62 KTBW 190833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL
SLOW AND HANG UP OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT...BUT FEEL
THAT IT IS STILL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL MODEL
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FEATURE CLOSING OFF
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL WEST-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO LIFT
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL PASS BY PERIODICALLY...ALLOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO TEMPORARILY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GOMEX...BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLUTION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  68  85  69 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  86  65  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  85  66  86  66 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  86  66  84  66 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  86  60  86  60 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  84  71  85  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 190032
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
832 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. ON
SUNDAY REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EXPECTED. DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS
OF THE NATURE COAST AND OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS FROM SOME PATCHY FOG AT KLAL AND KPGD BETWEEN
09-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME CALM
BY 02Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 14Z
BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POSSIBLE SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING
ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 190032
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
832 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. ON
SUNDAY REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EXPECTED. DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS
OF THE NATURE COAST AND OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS FROM SOME PATCHY FOG AT KLAL AND KPGD BETWEEN
09-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME CALM
BY 02Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 14Z
BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POSSIBLE SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING
ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 181844
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. SOME CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CONTINUE MILD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INTERRUPTION BY A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS BY MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OFFSHORE OF FORT MYERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  87  68  86 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  64  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  64  85  65  86 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  64  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  53  86  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  71  86  72  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RR





000
FXUS62 KTBW 181335
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING HAS DRY VERTICAL
PROFILE. WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTH WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL FILTER
MORE COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING TWITH A SEA BREEZE FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS WEEKEND BUT A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF TAMPA BAY SUNDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE RETURNS BY MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
OFFSHORE OF FORT MYERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  82  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  53  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/DN/RR










000
FXUS62 KTBW 181335
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING HAS DRY VERTICAL
PROFILE. WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTH WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL FILTER
MORE COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING TWITH A SEA BREEZE FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THIS WEEKEND BUT A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF TAMPA BAY SUNDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE RETURNS BY MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
OFFSHORE OF FORT MYERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  82  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  53  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/DN/RR











000
FXUS62 KTBW 180754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
JUST LEAD TO A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST...AND SUNDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A
BIT COOLER DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. RELATIVELY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  82  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  53  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 180754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
JUST LEAD TO A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST...AND SUNDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A
BIT COOLER DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. RELATIVELY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  82  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  53  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 180754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
JUST LEAD TO A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST...AND SUNDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A
BIT COOLER DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. RELATIVELY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  82  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  53  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 180754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
JUST LEAD TO A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST...AND SUNDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A
BIT COOLER DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROPAGATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING
THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CANADIAN
IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA ALL TOGETHER. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THE SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ALL
AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE GFS ENDS UP PANNING OUT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. RELATIVELY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS AND ERC VALUES WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  82  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  53  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA








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