000
FXUS62 KTBW 200120
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
920 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND AND WOUND DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH STILL A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF MODELS
CONTINUE THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT WE MAY SEE MORE OF
A LAND BREEZE AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MAV AND ON THE
MODEL PLOTS. MORE THAN LIKELY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SO LIGHT
THAT THIS WILL NOT REALLY MATTER OTHER THEN POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH COULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM
AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITH US LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. IN GENERAL THE
CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK OK...BUT WILL TWEAK ZONE FORECAST
WORDING TO MENTION ISOLATED POPS TOWARD MORNING NEAR THE COAST
FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN WITH VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MORNING SHOWERS VICINITY OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ THEN AFTERNOON
STORMS SHIFTING INLAND THURSDAY. TIMING AND EXTENT TOO UNCERTAIN
FOR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING THEN MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE INLAND...EXCEPT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE CONVECTION COULD COME BACK TO THE COAST AND
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING. PRESENT
MARINE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR
LATE EVENING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 75 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 77 90 74 91 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 71 92 70 92 / 20 50 20 50
SPG 81 89 79 89 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 191903
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A CLOSED LOW WAS ON THE COAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO
OREGON...RIDGING REACHED ACROSS THE MID CONUS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA TO NORTHEAST MEXICO...TROUGHING STRETCHED FROM LABRADOR TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND A RIDGE REACHED ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE - BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC...ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A
SECOND BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THEN NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
RIDGED WEST OVER FL INTO THE GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE MID-CONUS RIDGE MOVES EAST...REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY FRI...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE SE U.S.
THU THEN SETTLES SOUTH FRI TO OVER AND JUST EAST OF FL. THE SOUTHERN
MOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NORTHERN FL AS IT BEGINS TO DECAY
THU WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH A RELAXING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. ON FRI THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE AS IT FURTHER
WEAKENS WHILE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO LIFT
NORTH.
ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WATERSPOUTS EARLY
THU MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BOUNDARY ADDING SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE
AND ENERGY TO THE ATMOSPHERE...HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WILL BE ISOLATED MORNING AND
EVENINGS BUT BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING IN WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST
WILL TRANSITION THE WESTERLY FLOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES BUT MORE LIMITED EACH DAY. THIS WILL PERMIT
THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AND TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LOWS...HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL BUILD EAST AND BRIDGE ACROSS A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTH FLORIDA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN A DEVELOPING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE
TO THE WEST COAST WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESIDE EACH DAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AREAS...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MAY CAUSE BRIEF TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS INLAND AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...THEN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AFTER
20/09Z MAY AGAIN CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY
BUT WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS RATHER
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT STAY AT 15 KNOTS/3 FEET OR LESS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 75 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 77 90 74 91 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 71 92 70 92 / 20 50 20 50
SPG 81 89 79 89 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 191300
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY WITH PREVAILING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...ENHANCED BY
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING JUST
OFF THE COAST AND EXPECT THESE TO PUSH INLAND WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WEST COAST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES MEET IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN CWA. ACROSS THE
NORTH...FROM PASCO TO LEVY...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE A BETTER
PUSH AND EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED WORDING BUT LOWER POPS TO 30 PERCENT.
UPDATES OUT BY 930 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
STORMS MAY CAUSE BRIEF TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT AT VCTS FOR THIS
PACKAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN FL KEEPS WINDS SW OR WEST AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT FORECAST OUT AROUND 10 AM WITH
LITTLE CHANGE.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190818
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
418 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
STAGNANT U/L PATTERN WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN U/L WESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THURSDAY PINCHING OFF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ON FRIDAY AS THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTH
FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW EACH DAY. THIS WILL DECREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR AND LIKELY PUSHING WEST BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS DUE TO THE VERY WEAK OVERALL FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY EACH DAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL BUILD EAST AND BRIDGE ACROSS A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTH FLORIDA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN A DEVELOPING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE
TO THE WEST COAST WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESIDE EACH DAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AREAS...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS
THROUGH 08Z AND AT KTPA...KPIE...AND KSRQ THROUGH 11Z THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z AND VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAF PACKAGE TO COVER THIS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE
AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINAL
SITES AFTER 20/02Z TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE WATERS WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 78 91 77 / 30 20 50 20
FMY 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 20
GIF 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 20
SRQ 89 77 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 90 71 92 70 / 30 20 50 20
SPG 89 81 89 79 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190043
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS TO
ON TRACK. SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND NO FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FORECAST. AREAS THAT SAW RAIN TODAY MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING SOME VERY PATCHY DITCH FOG. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER FOR THE
CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SW FLOW AREA
WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...THEN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RUN GENERALLY 2 FEET
NEAR SHORE AND CLOSER TO 3 WELL OFFSHORE. DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WINDS UP NORTH SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BRINGING SEAS BACK DOWN TO 2
FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 92 75 93 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 30 50 20 50
SRQ 76 89 75 90 / 10 20 20 30
BKV 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 20 40
SPG 79 89 80 90 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181921
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A CLOSED LOW WAS SOUTHWEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...RIDGING
REACHED FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN BORDER TO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES...TROUGHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST CONTAINED A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES NEAR THE MID-WEST AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A RIDGE REACHED ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF TO THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES...ONE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A SECOND FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST OVER
FL TO THE GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH...OVER THE CONUS...SLIDE EAST WITH
THE RIDGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END
OVER/NEAR NORTHERN FL. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE ACROSS FL CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN MOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
AS NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION/ SAGS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN STATES INTO NORTHERN FL. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
WEST INTO THE GULF WITH IT/S AXIS MEANDERING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN FL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UN-CHANGED.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WESTERLY FLOW...ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...DOMINATES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH PUSH FROM THE GULF ONSHORE
AND INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AIDED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDING WITH
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. POPS WILL
STAY IN THE HIGH SCATTERED RANGE...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM WED TO THU DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES TOWARD THE AREA. PWATS GO FROM 1.4-1.5 WED TO 1.7-1.8
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LOWS...HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE. WARMING GULF WATERS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...WHICH ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL PUSH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-NEXT TUESDAY)...
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WITH REMNANT WEAK U/L TROUGH
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PINCHED OFF FROM THE U/L FLOW.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...AND BRIDGE OVER THE WEAK TROUGH AND
EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TRANSITION DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE INCREASING EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT AND
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM WATERS AID LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALONG LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. SIMILAR PATTERN ON
MONDAY BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AS THE U/L
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS AT NIGHT AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND KLAL WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY AOB 30 PERCENT...HAVE LEFT AS VCTS FOR
THE TAF PACKAGE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW AND WEST WINDS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH MORE LIMITED SEA BREEZES BY THE WEEKEND
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN FL TO THE SE U.S. WINDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE AT TIMES DURING WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 92 75 93 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 76 89 75 90 / 10 20 20 30
BKV 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 20 40
SPG 79 89 80 90 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181300
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
FORECASTS. A GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH WILL TEND TO EXIT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. WEAKER FLOW IN THE SOUTH MEETING THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...OVER THE EAST AND SE CWA. CURRENT
FORECASTS HANDLE THIS NICELY AND DO NOT PLAN ANY FORECAST CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18/12Z-19/12Z...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENTLY SE WINDS VEER TO SW...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO ENTIRELY TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AT NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS. NEXT FORECAST OUT BY 10 AM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180817
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING. MAIN SHORT
TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND POPS ONCE AGAIN.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST...AND A SLOWER INLAND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAND AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
CONTINUES IT/S INLAND PROPAGATION. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLISION ACROSS POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END BY 06Z ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOP PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
A WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE AN U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH ONSHORE WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY. HOWEVER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY
DELAY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INLAND WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WEAKENS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN WHICH
WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY PUSHING WEST BACK
TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WITH REMNANT WEAK U/L TROUGH
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PINCHED OFF FROM THE U/L FLOW.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...AND BRIDGE OVER THE WEAK TROUGH AND
EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TRANSITION DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE INCREASING EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT AND
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM WATERS AID LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALONG LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. SIMILAR PATTERN ON
MONDAY BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AS THE U/L
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS AT NIGHT AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS...SO
HAVEN/T MENTIONED VCSH/VCTS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS AT KLAL WHERE VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z.
&&
.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS
15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 77 91 77 / 20 10 30 20
FMY 93 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 20
GIF 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 20
SRQ 91 76 89 75 / 20 10 20 20
BKV 93 72 92 71 / 20 10 30 20
SPG 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180118
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BROUGHT AN
ACCELERATED SEA BREEZE IN NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED INLAND FROM NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...NORTHEAST TO DAYTONA BEACH AND IS SLOWLY
WITHDRAWING OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
INLAND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT WERE REDRAWN
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT POSITION OF SHOWERS ON RADAR.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT OVER ALREADY WET
GROUND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
OTHER THAN POPS TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS AND COULD EFFECT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE CAUSING SEAS OF A FOOT OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 74 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 20 20 10 20
BKV 70 93 72 92 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 79 91 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...FLEMING
AVIATION...CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 172009
AFDTBW
FXUS62 KTBW 171305
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER-TOP AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
ALIGNED ACROSS THE STATE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH A SLOWER INLAND
EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FLOW IS LIGHTER OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
OPPOSED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED SO FAR WITH
WIDELY SCT CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
STILL ANTICIPATE AN ACTIVE EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS ACTUALLY HINTING AT A LATE START...AND
PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT/HEATING LEFT TO GO. EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE COLLISION WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
POLK COUNTY TO HIGHLANDS AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARD FT. MYERS. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
THESE AREA. FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4...THE ONLY
CHANCES FOR STORMS NOW LOOKS TO BE WELL INLAND WITH THE PROPAGATING
SEA-BREEZE...AND EVENTUALLY THIS CONVERGENT ZONE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS FRONT WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA AND IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO STALL AND WASH OUT NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE JUNE. FOR
TUESDAY...SOME INDICATIONS OF A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH A QUICKLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE WILL KEEP
POPS LOWER TO THE NORTH OF I-4. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
SUPPRESSED DOWN TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
THIS POSITION SHOULD SET UP A LARGER PORTION OF AREA TO SEE A
QUICKLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST.
HAVE NOTICED A WARMING OF THE SHELF WATERS IN THE PAST WEEK OR 2 AND
RESULTING SPIKE IN COASTAL DEWPOINTS LATELY. FOR THIS REASON...HEAT
INDICES HAVE BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL SHOW MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERLIES LIFTING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL PINCH
OFF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF
SEPARATING IT FROM THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF OFF THE GEORGIA/S CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR POSSIBLY
PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS
THURSDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND WEST ISOLD TSRA NOW FORMING WILL MOVE
INLAND AS THEY BECOME SCT. STILL LOOKING FOR VCNTY TSRA/CB ONLY
INLAND AND SOUTH DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE
ISOLD SHRA IN A 01Z-06Z WINDOW. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STEADIER ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PREVENT
ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MAXIMUM DAILY HEAT INDICES
WILL BE ELEVATED WITH TYPICAL VALUES OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES COMMON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY INLAND FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAINFALL FROM DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
GIF 74 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 10 20 10 20
BKV 70 93 72 93 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 171314
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HANDLING OF MAJOR FORECAST
ELEMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS DRIVING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY...PRIMARILY OVER INLAND AREAS. PATTERN CHANGES ON
FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST...PINNING SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...17/12Z-18/12Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BECOME SCT AS THEY
MOVE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCNTY TSRA ONLY AT
INLAND/SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN TERMINALS
COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA LATE EVENING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO ONSHORE LATER FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 1 FOOT OR LESS...WITH A
LIGHT CHOP ON COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 91 77 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 94 75 91 76 / 40 30 10 20
GIF 93 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 10
SRQ 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 92 69 92 71 / 20 10 20 10
SPG 91 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA/LEWIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
000
FXUS62 KTBW 170817
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FIZZLED OUT FOR THE MOST PART.
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND POPS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER TODAY. THIS WILL LOWER UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE FLOW STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCALES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH LOCALLY
DEVELOPED CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
REGIMES...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD END OR SHIFT OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVER LAND
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS COASTAL ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES
INLAND. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON EAST/WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MERGER WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND COULD SEE
A FEW STRONG STORMS HERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND PUSH INTO THE NATURE COAST...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HERE...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TUESDAY...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED U/L RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND DIG THE
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH
FLORIDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND EAST-
WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH ONSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO
LINE UP SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERLIES LIFTING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL PINCH
OFF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF
SEPARATING IT FROM THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF OFF THE GEORGIA/S CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR POSSIBLY
PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS
THURSDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM THE
KTPA...KPIE...KSRQ TERMINALS...SO WILL NOT MENTION VCTS HERE. AT THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CARRY VCTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT BACK OVER KFMY AND KRSW THIS EVENING...SO WILL
CARRY VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HERE.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 91 77 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 94 75 92 76 / 40 30 20 20
GIF 93 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 10
SRQ 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 93 69 92 71 / 20 10 20 10
SPG 91 78 90 79 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...OGLESBY
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