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000
FXUS62 KTBW 251845
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CLEAR AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE LOW THAT IS LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH LEAD TO A RELAXED GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MID/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...SETTING
UP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...SETTING
UP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND DEW POINTS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT IN TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PICK UP FRIDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CREATE GOOD CONDITIONS
FOR BOATING OVER THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT ERC VALUES
AND WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  82  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  60  83  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  57  82  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  57  81  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  45  83  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  65  81  68  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 251845
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CLEAR AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE LOW THAT IS LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH LEAD TO A RELAXED GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MID/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...SETTING
UP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...SETTING
UP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND DEW POINTS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT IN TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PICK UP FRIDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CREATE GOOD CONDITIONS
FOR BOATING OVER THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT ERC VALUES
AND WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  82  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  60  83  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  57  82  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  57  81  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  45  83  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  65  81  68  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 251351
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
951 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE MORNING HAS STARTED OUT NICE WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS
OVER THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR BOATING OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  79  58  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  57  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  78  65  81  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 250721
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
IDEAL WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND AS DRY MILD
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN U/L FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AN U/L RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM S/W OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA GRADUALLY
LIFTS EAST AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.  HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE A
MILD 80 TO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST TO OVER THE INTERIOR.  LOWS WILL RUN
IN THE MID 40S NORTH...LOWER 50S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO
DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
MID/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...SETTING UP FAIR
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...SETTING UP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT IN TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO
EASTERN CANADA...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...BUT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS SUPPRESS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
PICK UP FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CREATE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR BOATING OVER THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...AND BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  59  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  83  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  81  59  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  79  69  79  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 250042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FAIR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
CONTINUING TO BRING IN DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SO IT SHOULD BE A
DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE KIND OF BREEZY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  62  82  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  59  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  60  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  80  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  65  78  70  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 241941
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE STATE. THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNS ZONES TO RELAX AND
LIGHTEN THE N/NE WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S COASTAL CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHILE THE NEXT U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  QUASI ZONAL FLOW
WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE U/L PATTERN
AMPLIFYING THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE U/L TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.  MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
CREATE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE LAYER COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N/NE WINDS
WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8-10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND BE IN A POSITION WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY AIR WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION AS WELL AND NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ERC
VALUES LOW SO NO WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  80  61  83 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  62  82  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  59  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  60  80  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  48  80  48  83 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  65  78  70  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 241404
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1004 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE AND
GUSTY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT
AROUND 5-8KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 241404
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1004 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE AND
GUSTY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT
AROUND 5-8KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 240820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS VERY EVIDENT ON SAT LOOP THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE BAHAMAS BY 00Z
SAT. THIS FORECAST POSITION IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH GFS FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY AND OTHER MED RANGE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON MUCH
BETTER TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF LOW WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOC DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION (SOMETHING A BIT
IN QUESTION ON PREVIOUS DAYS) AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (INCLUDING FAR SOUTH) DESPITE PRESENCE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC WITH A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHALLOW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW AN H85 INVERSION TO ALLOW A CU FIELD ACROSS SRN/ERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND EVEN EXPECT BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SRN 3RD OF
THE CWA IN THE AFTN DUE TO DEVELOPING STRATA CU DECK. COOL/DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND PROMOTING SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS BUT
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY...BUT WILL
DECREASE SOME ON SATURDAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES SOME WITH THE LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN TWO MARINE ZONES WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT STILL BE SEE CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS SRN WATERS
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AIRMASS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S. NATURE COAST WILL APPROACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA SAT WITH MORE OF THE REGION APPROACHING MID 30S MIN RH BY
SUN...BUT ERC AND WIND THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHILE THE NEXT U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  QUASI ZONAL FLOW
WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE U/L PATTERN
AMPLIFYING THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE U/L TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.  MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
CREATE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE LAYER COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  60  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  82  63 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  80  61  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  61  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  50  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  79  66  80  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 240522 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS ACROSS DEEP S FL. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION TO PROVIDE BKN CU ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
3500 FT AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  62  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  63  83  61 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  82  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  83  63  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  81  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  68  81  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 240150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KTBW 240150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
OVER THE STATE. THIS IS KEEPING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND A MODERATE/GUSTY NE FLOW IN PLACE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTREME SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S COASTAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
U/L RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE
AIR OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AS A BROAD U/L TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY WILL CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH MID WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE U/L TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 14Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SCT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
EASTERLY SURGE IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET. TAMPA BAY INCLUDED IN ADVISORY
DUE TO EXPECTED WINDS AT MOUTH OF BAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX
ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CAUSE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL THEN MODERATE
THEREAFTER. ERC VALUES ARE LOW AND WINDS ARE BELOW 15 MPH...SO NO
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
MARINE...72/NOAH DECISION
SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
OVER THE STATE. THIS IS KEEPING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND A MODERATE/GUSTY NE FLOW IN PLACE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTREME SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S COASTAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
U/L RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE
AIR OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AS A BROAD U/L TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY WILL CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH MID WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE U/L TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 14Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SCT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
EASTERLY SURGE IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET. TAMPA BAY INCLUDED IN ADVISORY
DUE TO EXPECTED WINDS AT MOUTH OF BAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX
ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CAUSE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL THEN MODERATE
THEREAFTER. ERC VALUES ARE LOW AND WINDS ARE BELOW 15 MPH...SO NO
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
MARINE...72/NOAH DECISION
SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231436
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1036 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
PROVIDING SOME INCREASED/GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ALLOWING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO THE LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MODERATE NE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 18-20KTS. WINDS SHOULD
THEN LOWER TO 5-8KTS AFTER 00Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE MORNING
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DROP BELOW 20 KTS BUT OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT. SCA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE BAY AS LOCAL HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS NEARING 20 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CLOSER TO THE PORT...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS DO APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TAMPA BAY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231436
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1036 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
PROVIDING SOME INCREASED/GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ALLOWING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO THE LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MODERATE NE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 18-20KTS. WINDS SHOULD
THEN LOWER TO 5-8KTS AFTER 00Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE MORNING
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DROP BELOW 20 KTS BUT OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT. SCA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE BAY AS LOCAL HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS NEARING 20 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CLOSER TO THE PORT...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS DO APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TAMPA BAY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 230735
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS S FL TODAY PERHAPS JUST S OF I-75. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS S FL
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOC MOISTURE POOL WILL
BE KEY AS A VIGOROUS S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OF FRIDAY
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER FAR SRN ZONES MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO SEE SOME PRECIP. GFS...CANADIAN...NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW FRONTAL WAVES MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN ANY AGREEMENT WRT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS...EACH MODEL HAS THE
FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE WAVES ARE LOCATED IN THE MODEL RUN. NAM IS AGAIN MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AS IT SHOWS A WAVE ACROSS THE SE GULF ON
FRI WHILE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AS S FL SHOWN TO BE ON BACKSIDE OF ONE
OF THESE WAVES WHICH STRENGTHENS INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN POPS BETWEEN THE TWO
MOS PRODUCTS WITH GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE NAM
IS IN LIKELY RANGE IN FMY AREA. WILL COMPROMISE A BIT BETWEEN THESE
SOLNS BUT LEAN MORE ON DRY SIDE GIVEN STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS POINT
THAT DIRECTION (20-30% FAR SRN 5 COS). INTERESTINGLY...THESE
LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES ARE DEPICTED IN MORE IMPRESSIVE FASHION THAN TD9
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS IT SLIDES
MORE ESE INTO THE CARRIBEAN. EXPECT STRONG N/S TEMP GRADIENT TONIGHT
AS NRN AREAS DROP INTO THE UPR 40S WITH HELP OF COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE BUT SRN COS REMAIN IN THE 60S CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH 80S
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OBS IN RIGHT LOCATION TO CONFIRM.
EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA LATER THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE NEAR
SCA LEVELS AGAIN OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIRMASS ON TAP NEXT FEW DAYS...ESP IN NRN
COS. RH VALUES NEAR RF THRESHOLDS...BUT NEITHER WINDS NOR ERC
VALUES SUPPORT RED FLAG ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM(FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG U/L
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS A BROAD U/L
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID WEEK.  ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AHEAD OF THE U/L
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  62  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  67  86  63 /  20  10  30  10
GIF  81  61  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  86  62  83  63 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  82  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  83  68  82  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 230536 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
136 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF A PBI TO APF LINE WILL
STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER AND
HIGH MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ON AND
OFF MVFR CIGS ACROSS FMY/RSW SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
CEN FL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  63  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  86  70  83  65 /   0  20  40  20
GIF  82  61  83  60 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  86  65  82  65 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  83  53  82  57 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  82  68  80  64 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 230059
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DOMINATED THE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OVER LEE COUNTY WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS
EVENING CAME IN AT 0.81 INCHES PWAT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO A HALF
INCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WHICH WILL FURTHER
THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD CUBA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM THE YUCATAN TO EASTERN CUBA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  68  86  70  83 /  30   0  20  40
GIF  63  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  65  86  65  82 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  52  83  53  82 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  69  82  68  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 230059
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DOMINATED THE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OVER LEE COUNTY WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS
EVENING CAME IN AT 0.81 INCHES PWAT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO A HALF
INCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WHICH WILL FURTHER
THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD CUBA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM THE YUCATAN TO EASTERN CUBA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  68  86  70  83 /  30   0  20  40
GIF  63  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  65  86  65  82 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  52  83  53  82 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  69  82  68  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







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