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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280049 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DID FORM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. 00Z KTBW RAOB CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AROUND 400MB ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUNDING
ALSO REVEALED A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALOFT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE PWAT VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. HOWEVER DID
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING INLAND NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A VERY WARM...MUGGY
AIR MASS.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE
THE HEAT AS TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THAT
COMBINED WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICIES TO
APPROACH 105 IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW
TO CARRY ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
WAVES AS THE FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS SO WILL ADD MENTION OF SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THAT AREA ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  77  92  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  40
BKV  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  81  92  81  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 280049 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DID FORM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. 00Z KTBW RAOB CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AROUND 400MB ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUNDING
ALSO REVEALED A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALOFT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE PWAT VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. HOWEVER DID
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING INLAND NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A VERY WARM...MUGGY
AIR MASS.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE
THE HEAT AS TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THAT
COMBINED WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICIES TO
APPROACH 105 IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW
TO CARRY ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
WAVES AS THE FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS SO WILL ADD MENTION OF SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THAT AREA ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  77  92  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  40
BKV  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  81  92  81  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 271902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...KEEPING A SOLID WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
DETAILS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD END BY 10 OR 11
PM. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND DRIFT ONSHORE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN ON MONDAY TO WHAT WE/VE
SEEN TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES IN THE MORNING...SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND NATURE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS NOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE
IN THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

THEREFORE...EXPECT A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MIDWEEK BECOMING RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THEN SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY REFORMS TO OUR
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SHUNTED FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THEN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
CAN RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK NORTH WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH/VCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES
AS THE FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR MARINERS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  77  93  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  40
BKV  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  81  92  79  90 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 271902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...KEEPING A SOLID WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
DETAILS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD END BY 10 OR 11
PM. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND DRIFT ONSHORE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN ON MONDAY TO WHAT WE/VE
SEEN TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES IN THE MORNING...SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND NATURE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS NOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE
IN THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

THEREFORE...EXPECT A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MIDWEEK BECOMING RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THEN SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY REFORMS TO OUR
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SHUNTED FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THEN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
CAN RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK NORTH WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH/VCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES
AS THE FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR MARINERS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  77  93  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  40
BKV  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  81  92  79  90 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 271431
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT
CHOPPY SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
FMY  93  76  93  77 /  50  20  20  10
GIF  94  75  94  76 /  30  10  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  79 /  30  20  20  10
BKV  93  74  94  75 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  91  80  91  79 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270834
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
434 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL EXTEND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG L/W TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE U/L RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONSHORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT LOCALLY ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ERODING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE
SOUTHEAST.  DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST
AREAS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.MID TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY AND
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NATURE
COAST DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY
AND FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS NOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE
IN THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

THEREFORE...EXPECT A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MIDWEEK BECOMING RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THEN SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY REFORMS TO OUR
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SHUNTED FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THEN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
CAN RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK NORTH WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  LCL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED PREDOMINATELY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
FMY  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  93  75  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  79 /  30  20  20  10
BKV  93  74  94  75 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  91  82  90  81 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270834
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
434 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL EXTEND TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG L/W TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE U/L RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONSHORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT LOCALLY ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ERODING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE
SOUTHEAST.  DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST
AREAS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.MID TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY AND
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NATURE
COAST DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY
AND FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS NOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE
IN THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

THEREFORE...EXPECT A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MIDWEEK BECOMING RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THEN SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY REFORMS TO OUR
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SHUNTED FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THEN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
CAN RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK NORTH WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  LCL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED PREDOMINATELY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
FMY  92  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  93  75  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  79 /  30  20  20  10
BKV  93  74  94  75 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  91  82  90  81 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 262353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
750 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...CONSISTING OF
ELONGATED DEEP LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES ARE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VARIABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH DOWN TO FORT MYERS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE DIURNAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS ALL THE WAY TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ONLY A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
STILL LEFTOVER TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 THIS EVENING...AND CONSIDERING
CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS AND CLIMO WOULD SUGGEST NOT MUCH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
WITH JUST A SLIGHT 20% CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE W/SW FLOW PATTERN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MANY OF
THE LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS SCT DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 8-9Z...WITH A MOTION BRINGING THE ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST
TOWARD SUNRISE. INHERITED GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND OF INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES NEAR THE COAST FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND SEE LITTLE REASON FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOOKING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY SUMMER NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S INLAND...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR WEEKEND!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (SUNDAY)..
THE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY WITH
PERHAPS A BIT LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE
DECREASES SLIGHTLY. OVERALL...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY COASTAL ZONES IN THE MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS THEN
SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS MOST SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
OF THE STATE. JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-4...BUT
GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FURTHER RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS INTO KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ OFF THE GULF.
ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SCT STORMS BETWEEN 15-19Z ON
SUNDAY WITH ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTING INLAND WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW TO WEST WITH SEAS A LIGHT
CHOP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE
DRIFTS SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
CAUSING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  79  92 /  30  40  20  20
FMY  77  93  76  93 /  20  30  20  20
GIF  75  95  75  94 /  10  40  20  20
SRQ  76  91  78  92 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  72  94  74  94 /  30  30  20  20
SPG  80  92  78  91 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 261927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
PREVAILING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING REVOLVES AROUND POPS.

MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 10 PM. MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COASTAL LOCALES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHERE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DRIFT IN OFF THE GULF...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY. OVERALL...EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL ZONES IN THE MORNING
WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END IN
THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST TOWARD MORNING ON MONDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S
THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND.


&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY  DISSIPATES.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT ALMOST ANYTIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE INLAND FROM THE TAF SITES BY 21Z...BUT CAN/T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM DRIFTING IN OFF THE GULF
GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. LATE TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW TO WEST WITH SEAS A LIGHT
CHOP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE
DRIFTS SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
CAUSING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  79  92 /  30  40  20  20
FMY  77  93  76  93 /  30  30  20  20
GIF  75  95  75  94 /  30  40  20  20
SRQ  76  91  78  92 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  72  94  74  94 /  30  30  20  20
SPG  80  92  78  91 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 261927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
PREVAILING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING REVOLVES AROUND POPS.

MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 10 PM. MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COASTAL LOCALES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHERE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DRIFT IN OFF THE GULF...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY. OVERALL...EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL ZONES IN THE MORNING
WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END IN
THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST TOWARD MORNING ON MONDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S
THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND.


&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY  DISSIPATES.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT ALMOST ANYTIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE INLAND FROM THE TAF SITES BY 21Z...BUT CAN/T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM DRIFTING IN OFF THE GULF
GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. LATE TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW TO WEST WITH SEAS A LIGHT
CHOP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE
DRIFTS SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
CAUSING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  79  92 /  30  40  20  20
FMY  77  93  76  93 /  30  30  20  20
GIF  75  95  75  94 /  30  40  20  20
SRQ  76  91  78  92 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  72  94  74  94 /  30  30  20  20
SPG  80  92  78  91 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 261433
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINANT TODAY...WITH COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING INLAND AND FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER
90S. MADE SOME ALTERATIONS TO POPS TO TRY AND BETTER SPECIFY
EXPECTED SHOWER/STORM TIMING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE MOST PROBABLE
TIME FRAMES FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH VCSH/VCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF A WEST NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SEAS AT A LIGHT CHOP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA CAUSING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  30  30  20
FMY  93  77  93  76 /  40  30  30  20
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  50  30  30  20
SRQ  91  79  92  78 /  40  20  20  20
BKV  92  74  94  74 /  40  30  30  20
SPG  90  80  91  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 261433
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINANT TODAY...WITH COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING INLAND AND FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER
90S. MADE SOME ALTERATIONS TO POPS TO TRY AND BETTER SPECIFY
EXPECTED SHOWER/STORM TIMING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE MOST PROBABLE
TIME FRAMES FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH VCSH/VCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF A WEST NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SEAS AT A LIGHT CHOP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA CAUSING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  30  30  20
FMY  93  77  93  76 /  40  30  30  20
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  50  30  30  20
SRQ  91  79  92  78 /  40  20  20  20
BKV  92  74  94  74 /  40  30  30  20
SPG  90  80  91  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 260820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL CREATE VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ENHANCE U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HOLD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
PUSH INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

.MID TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...HOWEVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOISTURE RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN
SHIFTING/DEVELOPING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY  DISSIPATES.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT ALMOST ANYTIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY
TPA/PIE/SRQ WILL BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...VCNTY LAL 17-22Z...AND
VCNTY PGD/FMY/RSW 16-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  20  20  20
FMY  92  78  93  76 /  30  20  30  20
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  60  20  30  20
SRQ  91  79  92  78 /  40  20  20  20
BKV  91  74  94  74 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  90  82  90  81 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 260820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL CREATE VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ENHANCE U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HOLD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
PUSH INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

.MID TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...HOWEVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOISTURE RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN
SHIFTING/DEVELOPING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MIDWEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY  DISSIPATES.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT ALMOST ANYTIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY
TPA/PIE/SRQ WILL BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...VCNTY LAL 17-22Z...AND
VCNTY PGD/FMY/RSW 16-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  20  20  20
FMY  92  78  93  76 /  30  20  30  20
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  60  20  30  20
SRQ  91  79  92  78 /  40  20  20  20
BKV  91  74  94  74 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  90  82  90  81 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 260003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TODAY SAW AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWED A SLIGHTLY COOLER
ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS MAINLY DRIVEN BY SECONDARY BOUNDARIES THAT
FORMED FROM EARLIER WEAKER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. STORMS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AT THE MOMENT BUT DO NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...LOCAL HI RES MODELS WERE AGAIN PICKING UP ON SOME EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION PUSHING TOWARDS THE COASTLINE AROUND SUN RISE.
BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY FOR THE LOWER HALF OF THE
CWA...BEGINNING AROUND 12Z.


&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AND VCSH LINGERING NEAR LAL...PGD...RSW AND FMY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH A
GENERAL S/SW FLOW IN PLACE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. INCLUDED VCTS AND VCSH WORDING BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCLUDING LAL. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES BY
18Z.


&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR EACH MORNING...WHILE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND FROM
GULF BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
AGAIN FAVOR INLAND COUNTIES. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  79  92 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  77  91  78  94 /  30  30  20  30
GIF  77  90  76  96 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  77  88  79  91 /  30  30  20  20
BKV  74  90  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  82  87  82  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...20/BARRON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 260003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TODAY SAW AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWED A SLIGHTLY COOLER
ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS MAINLY DRIVEN BY SECONDARY BOUNDARIES THAT
FORMED FROM EARLIER WEAKER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. STORMS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AT THE MOMENT BUT DO NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...LOCAL HI RES MODELS WERE AGAIN PICKING UP ON SOME EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION PUSHING TOWARDS THE COASTLINE AROUND SUN RISE.
BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY FOR THE LOWER HALF OF THE
CWA...BEGINNING AROUND 12Z.


&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AND VCSH LINGERING NEAR LAL...PGD...RSW AND FMY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH A
GENERAL S/SW FLOW IN PLACE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. INCLUDED VCTS AND VCSH WORDING BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCLUDING LAL. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES BY
18Z.


&&

.MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR EACH MORNING...WHILE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND FROM
GULF BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
AGAIN FAVOR INLAND COUNTIES. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  79  92 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  77  91  78  94 /  30  30  20  30
GIF  77  90  76  96 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  77  88  79  91 /  30  30  20  20
BKV  74  90  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  82  87  82  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...20/BARRON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 251915
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY HAS LED
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED RETURNS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
POLK COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
CONTINUES IS PROPAGATION EASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ITS
POSITION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THAT END UP TRANSLATING ALONG COASTAL REGIONS AS WELL. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE INITIATES AND BEGINS ITS TREK EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM MUGGY AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE U/L RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG U/L TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION DAY THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. COULD STILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM MOVE
OVER ONE OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THIS IS
MAINLY AT KLAL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING AT COASTAL SITES AROUND TAMPA BAY AND INCLUDING KSRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  92 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  77  93  77  94 /  20  30  20  30
GIF  75  93  76  96 /  20  60  20  40
SRQ  76  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
BKV  72  93  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  79  90  80  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251915
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY HAS LED
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED RETURNS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
POLK COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
CONTINUES IS PROPAGATION EASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ITS
POSITION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THAT END UP TRANSLATING ALONG COASTAL REGIONS AS WELL. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE INITIATES AND BEGINS ITS TREK EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM MUGGY AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE U/L RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG U/L TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION DAY THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. COULD STILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM MOVE
OVER ONE OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THIS IS
MAINLY AT KLAL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING AT COASTAL SITES AROUND TAMPA BAY AND INCLUDING KSRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  92 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  77  93  77  94 /  20  30  20  30
GIF  75  93  76  96 /  20  60  20  40
SRQ  76  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
BKV  72  93  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  79  90  80  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 251354
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
954 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
FLOW IN PLACE FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS HAVE TRANSLATED OVER
LAND AREAS FROM AROUND VENICE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION INITIATES...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSLATE
INLAND WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS
AT SITES CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL HANDLE
WITH TEMPOS IF NEEDED. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT MORE
TOWARD KLAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER TERMINALS COULD CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGH
WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  20  20  30  20
FMY  93  76  93  77 /  40  20  60  20
GIF  92  75  95  76 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  91  77  91  79 /  20  20  30  20
BKV  92  72  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SPG  90  80  91  80 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251354
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
954 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
FLOW IN PLACE FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS HAVE TRANSLATED OVER
LAND AREAS FROM AROUND VENICE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION INITIATES...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSLATE
INLAND WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS
AT SITES CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL HANDLE
WITH TEMPOS IF NEEDED. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT MORE
TOWARD KLAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER TERMINALS COULD CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGH
WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  20  20  30  20
FMY  93  76  93  77 /  40  20  60  20
GIF  92  75  95  76 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  91  77  91  79 /  20  20  30  20
BKV  92  72  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SPG  90  80  91  80 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 250710
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE CONVECTION
THEN BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE HOT AND
MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103
DEGREE RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS.

.MID TERM (SATURDAY - SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM MUGGY AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE U/L RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG U/L TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION DAY THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE
DEVELOPING SHRA ALONG THE COAST OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z AS
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BUT FOR NOW HAVE
HANDLED WITH VCTS...BUT BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS MAY BECOME NECESSARY
IN ANY AMENDMENTS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR IS EXPECTED. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS EXPECTED...WITH
AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE GA/FL
BORDERS ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  20  30  20
FMY  93  76  93  78 /  40  20  60  20
GIF  92  75  95  76 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  91  77  91  79 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  92  72  93  73 /  40  20  30  20
SPG  90  80  89  82 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 250710
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE CONVECTION
THEN BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE HOT AND
MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103
DEGREE RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS.

.MID TERM (SATURDAY - SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM MUGGY AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE U/L RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG U/L TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION DAY THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE
DEVELOPING SHRA ALONG THE COAST OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z AS
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BUT FOR NOW HAVE
HANDLED WITH VCTS...BUT BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS MAY BECOME NECESSARY
IN ANY AMENDMENTS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR IS EXPECTED. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS EXPECTED...WITH
AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE GA/FL
BORDERS ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  20  30  20
FMY  93  76  93  78 /  40  20  60  20
GIF  92  75  95  76 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  91  77  91  79 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  92  72  93  73 /  40  20  30  20
SPG  90  80  89  82 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






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