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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011550
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1150 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE NORTH...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE IS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANVIL BLOWOFF
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...TOWARD AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 90 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WINDS NEAR THE COAST
ONSHORE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
STATE AND SET UP THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LIKELY THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST SAMPLED IN THE
KTBW SOUNDING COLUMN THIS MORNING...IS THE DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING INVERSION SEEN BETWEEN 700-625MB. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE FOR PARCELS TO OVERCOME TODAY IN THE PROCESS
OF CONVECTION. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME MIXING TO OCCUR UP TO A
SURFACE TEMP AROUND 90 STILL HAS TROUBLE OVERCOMING THIS CAP.
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE MANY OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS CAP...AND HAVE NOTICED THE
LATEST HRRR BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
BREAKING THE CAP INTO FREE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE NOT UTILIZING THIS REAL-TIME SOUNDING DATA.

THIS CAP WILL CERTAINLY DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY CONVECTION AS WE
WILL NEED TO REACH ABSOLUTE PEAK HEATING IF PARCELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING BY THIS INVERSION. LIKELY WE WILL
REQUIRE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY MOISTURE POOLING TO REACH THE CAPE NEEDED
FOR STORMS. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LATE START...BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND OCCUR IN A FAIRLY
NARROW ZONE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-75.

TONIGHT...
WITH THE LATE START TO ANY CONVECTION...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET.
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FAVORED
CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE QUITE
LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EARLIER MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE TO
ARRIVE...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
WAIT FOR ALL THE 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE
MAKING A FINAL FORECAST DECISION ON TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTION ON
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

&&

.AVIATION...
01/12Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI CLOUDS.
LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS CURRENTLY...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
SHOWER AFTER 19Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES EVEN
FOR THESE TERMINALS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  20  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  20  20  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 011136
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
01/12Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI CLOUDS.
LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING TO
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR A SHOWER AFTER 19Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES
EVEN FOR THESE TERMINALS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO TX AND HAD A WARM FROM EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS
FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERS LIFTS AND
PIVOTS SLIGHTLY...FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN QUEBEC...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGED EASTWARD...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
THE TX/LA COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AND SLIDES EAST
AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS FL TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A POCKET OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEA BREEZE AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MON
THE WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER RIDGE AND AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.

MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...AS A POTENT UPPER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOOKS TO UNFOLD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH...AFFECTING THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPANSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THOUGH SPOTTY SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO REINFORCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
WAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING A SPELL OF COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH LOWS LOOK TO FALL
BELOW CLIMO...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

MARINE...
A RELAXED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONT MID-WEEK
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
AND SEAS BENIGN ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD DROP RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRANSPORT WINDS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RUDE/AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 010753
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO TX AND HAD A WARM FROM EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS
FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERS LIFTS AND
PIVOTS SLIGHTLY...FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN QUEBEC...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGED EASTWARD...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
THE TX/LA COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AND SLIDES EAST
AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS FL TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A POCKET OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEA BREEZE AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MON
THE WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER RIDGE AND AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...AS A POTENT UPPER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOOKS TO UNFOLD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH...AFFECTING THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPANSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THOUGH SPOTTY SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO REINFORCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
WAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING A SPELL OF COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH LOWS LOOK TO FALL
BELOW CLIMO...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI
CLOUDS. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH BUT WELL INLAND OF THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONT MID-WEEK
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
AND SEAS BENIGN ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD DROP RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 010541
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
141 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI
CLOUDS. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS
AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY MILD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED
AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE...AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  73 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
GIF  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  20
SRQ  82  70  85  71 /  10   0  20  10
BKV  89  66  89  68 /  10  10  30  10
SPG  86  73  88  74 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 010054
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
854 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS
AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY MILD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA FL250 THROUGH 14Z. SCATTERED
CU/CI AOA FL040/FL250 EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE
4 TO 6 KNOT RANGE THROUGH 14Z. BETWEEN 14-18Z SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
18Z EXCEPT REMAINING SOUTHEAST AT KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE...AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 010054
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
854 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
JET CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS
AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY MILD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA FL250 THROUGH 14Z. SCATTERED
CU/CI AOA FL040/FL250 EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE
4 TO 6 KNOT RANGE THROUGH 14Z. BETWEEN 14-18Z SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
18Z EXCEPT REMAINING SOUTHEAST AT KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE...AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 010026
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
826 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CIGS AOA FL250 PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CU AOA FL040 ALONG WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS AOA
FL250 CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 4 TO 6 KNOT
RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 14-18Z. AFTER 18Z SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT REMAINING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT KLAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE
FIND SEVERAL DISTINCT LOBES OF ENERGY/CLOSED LOWS...ONE EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN/STORMS FROM THE
UPPER WEST TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND PIVOTING THROUGH THE
FOUR- CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM ALL THIS INCLEMENT
ACTIVITY...THE FLOW RIDGES UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 20-25KFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DROP BELOW THIS CIRRUS LEVEL AND THE COLUMN OVER THE PENINSULA IS
GENERALLY QUITE DRY. THIS WAS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 30/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD WAS SAMPLED IN THE VICINITY OF 700MB...WITH A
MARKED DROP IN DEWPOINT/RH ABOVE THIS LEVEL.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE STILL
EXPERIENCING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR TEMPERATURE RISE WELL INTO
THE 80S. THE TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS BROUGHT ON SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE SEEN MOST COASTAL STATIONS FLIP THEIR WIND
AROUND ONSHORE AND THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NOW THAT THE SEA- BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THE REST OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONE TRAVELS. THE DRY AIR
AND SUPPRESSION ARE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE
QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
SLIGHTLY "MORE FAVORABLE" NORTH OF I-4...BUT "MORE FAVORABLE" IS
STILL NOT FAVORABLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR UPDRAFTS TO BATTLE. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA
DOES EXIST AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IS AT A MAXIMUM. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS GO UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 20Z. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SHIFT INLAND QUICKLY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WEST COAST SEA- BREEZE. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% POP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN
CHANCES ONLY BRIEFLY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DECREASE
BY EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE SEA- BREEZE.

TONIGHT...FEW ISOLATED MID EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOUR OF SUNSET...AND
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND BECOME
LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. VERY PROBABLE TO SEE A FEW FOGGY PATCHES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAWN...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
OR VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST...OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW. PLENTY OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO CONTEND WITH...WITH THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION AND MOST
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET NEARBY...WOULD ANTICIPATE BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO INVADE OUR SKIES AND FILTER THE SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. ALTHOUGH IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FIELDS FORECAST BY
MOST OF THE NWP MEMBERS ARE CORRECT...THE DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE LESS THAN HAS BEEN SEEN MOST OF TODAY. FOR THAT
REASON...THINK WE CAN STILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ONCE
THE SEA- BREEZE FORMS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE GREAT AND SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED (IF ANY) IMPACT TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AND AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE A SURGE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEPICTED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WHICH WOULD HAVE AIDED IN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...THE
MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED A MUCH MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT COMPARED TO
THE 00Z ECMWF. THAT BEING SAID...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE THE PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY (LOW TO MID 80S) AND MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT...COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

MARINE... A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLIDE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THIS MID-WEEK FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  73  88 /  10   0  10  20
FMY  69  89  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  69  91  70  90 /  20  10  10  30
SRQ  70  82  70  85 /   0  10   0  20
BKV  67  89  66  89 /  20  10  10  30
SPG  73  86  73  88 /   0   0   0  20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL





000
FXUS62 KTBW 301927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE
FIND SEVERAL DISTINCT LOBES OF ENERGY/CLOSED LOWS...ONE EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN/STORMS FROM THE
UPPER WEST TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND PIVOTING THROUGH THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM ALL THIS INCLEMENT
ACTIVITY...THE FLOW RIDGES UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 20-25KFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DROP BELOW THIS CIRRUS LEVEL AND THE COLUMN OVER THE PENINSULA IS
GENERALLY QUITE DRY. THIS WAS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 30/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WAS SAMPLED IN THE VICINITY OF 700MB...WITH A MARKED DROP
IN DEWPOINT/RH ABOVE THIS LEVEL.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE STILL
EXPERIENCING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR TEMPERATURE RISE WELL INTO
THE 80S. THE TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS BROUGHT ON SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE SEEN MOST COASTAL STATIONS FLIP THEIR WIND
AROUND ONSHORE AND THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NOW THAT THE SEA- BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THE REST OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONE TRAVELS. THE DRY AIR
AND SUPPRESSION ARE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE
QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
SLIGHTLY "MORE FAVORABLE" NORTH OF I-4...BUT "MORE FAVORABLE" IS
STILL NOT FAVORABLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR UPDRAFTS TO BATTLE. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA
DOES EXIST AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IS AT A MAXIMUM. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS GO UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 20Z. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO SHIFT INLAND QUICKLY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEST
COAST SEA- BREEZE. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% POP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN CHANCES
ONLY BRIEFLY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE SEA- BREEZE.

TONIGHT...FEW ISOLATED MID EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOUR OF SUNSET...AND
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND BECOME
LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. VERY PROBABLE TO SEE A FEW FOGGY PATCHES
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAWN...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
OR VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST...OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW. PLENTY OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO CONTEND WITH...WITH THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION AND MOST
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET NEARBY...WOULD ANTICIPATE BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO INVADE OUR SKIES AND FILTER THE SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. ALTHOUGH IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FIELDS FORECAST BY
MOST OF THE NWP MEMBERS ARE CORRECT...THE DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE LESS THAN HAS BEEN SEEN MOST OF TODAY. FOR THAT
REASON...THINK WE CAN STILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ONCE
THE SEA- BREEZE FORMS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE GREAT AND SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED (IF ANY) IMPACT TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AND AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE A SURGE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEPICTED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WHICH WOULD HAVE AIDED IN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...THE
MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED A MUCH MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT COMPARED TO
THE 00Z ECMWF. THAT BEING SAID...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE THE PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY (LOW TO MID 80S) AND MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT...COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM AT KLAL AFTER
20Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE SEA- BREEZE FOR
KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF VIS RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
SLIDE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE APPROACH OF
THIS MID-WEEK FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  73  88 /  10   0  10  20
FMY  69  89  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  69  91  70  90 /  20  10  10  30
SRQ  70  82  70  85 /   0  10   0  20
BKV  67  89  66  89 /  20  10  10  30
SPG  73  86  73  88 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 301554
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE FIND
SEVERAL DISTINCT LOBES OF ENERGY/CLOSED LOWS...ONE EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN/STORMS FROM THE
UPPER WEST TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND PIVOTING THROUGH THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM ALL THIS INCLEMENT
ACTIVITY...THE FLOW RIDGES UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 20-25KFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DROP BELOW THIS CIRRUS LEVEL AND THE COLUMN OVER THE PENINSULA IS
GENERALLY QUITE DRY. THIS WAS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 30/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WAS SAMPLED IN THE VICINITY OF 700MB...WITH A MARKED DROP
IN DEWPOINT/RH ABOVE THIS LEVEL.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...WE ARE STILL
EXPERIENCING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR A DECENT TEMPERATURE RISE.
MOST SPOTS ARE NOW INTO THE LOWER 80S AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION. A LITTLE FURTHER TEMP RISE AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
OUR WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA- BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS TURNING SHOULD COMMENCE BETWEEN 16-18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WARM AND BENIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE WAIT FOR THE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE BEGINS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE. MOST SPOTS
WILL BE DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4
CORRIDOR ONE TRAVELS. THE DRY AIR AND SUPPRESSION ARE DEEPEST AND
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...AND ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN
NATURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY "MORE FAVORABLE" NORTH OF
I-4...BUT "MORE FAVORABLE" IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE. THERE IS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR UPDRAFTS TO BATTLE.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA DOES EXIST AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST
AND WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IS AT A MAXIMUM. THE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SHIFT INLAND QUICKLY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% POP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN
CHANCES ONLY BRIEFLY OCCUR...AND THEN DECREASE AFTER MID-
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA- BREEZE.

TONIGHT...FEW ISOLATED MID EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOUR OF SUNSET...AND
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND BECOME
LIGHT BY LATE EVENING.

SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST...OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW. PLENTY OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO CONTEND WITH...WITH THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION AND MOST
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET NEARBY...WOULD ANTICIPATE BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO INVADE OUR SKIES AND FILTER THE SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ONCE
THE SEA-BREEZE FORMS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE GREAT AND SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED (IF ANY) IMPACT TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM AT KLAL AFTER
20Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE SEA- BREEZE FOR
KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF VIS RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
SLIDE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE APPROACH OF
THIS MID-WEEK FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  72  89  72 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  89  69  89  71 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  89  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  89  67  88  66 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  87  72  87  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 301554
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE FIND
SEVERAL DISTINCT LOBES OF ENERGY/CLOSED LOWS...ONE EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN/STORMS FROM THE
UPPER WEST TO THE MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND PIVOTING THROUGH THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM ALL THIS INCLEMENT
ACTIVITY...THE FLOW RIDGES UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 20-25KFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DROP BELOW THIS CIRRUS LEVEL AND THE COLUMN OVER THE PENINSULA IS
GENERALLY QUITE DRY. THIS WAS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 30/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WAS SAMPLED IN THE VICINITY OF 700MB...WITH A MARKED DROP
IN DEWPOINT/RH ABOVE THIS LEVEL.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...WE ARE STILL
EXPERIENCING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR A DECENT TEMPERATURE RISE.
MOST SPOTS ARE NOW INTO THE LOWER 80S AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION. A LITTLE FURTHER TEMP RISE AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
OUR WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA- BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS TURNING SHOULD COMMENCE BETWEEN 16-18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WARM AND BENIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE WAIT FOR THE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE BEGINS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE. MOST SPOTS
WILL BE DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4
CORRIDOR ONE TRAVELS. THE DRY AIR AND SUPPRESSION ARE DEEPEST AND
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...AND ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN
NATURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY "MORE FAVORABLE" NORTH OF
I-4...BUT "MORE FAVORABLE" IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE. THERE IS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR UPDRAFTS TO BATTLE.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA DOES EXIST AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST
AND WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IS AT A MAXIMUM. THE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SHIFT INLAND QUICKLY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% POP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN
CHANCES ONLY BRIEFLY OCCUR...AND THEN DECREASE AFTER MID-
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA- BREEZE.

TONIGHT...FEW ISOLATED MID EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOUR OF SUNSET...AND
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND BECOME
LIGHT BY LATE EVENING.

SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST...OVERALL
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW. PLENTY OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO CONTEND WITH...WITH THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION AND MOST
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET NEARBY...WOULD ANTICIPATE BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO INVADE OUR SKIES AND FILTER THE SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ONCE
THE SEA-BREEZE FORMS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE GREAT AND SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED (IF ANY) IMPACT TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM AT KLAL AFTER
20Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE SEA- BREEZE FOR
KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF VIS RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
SLIDE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE APPROACH OF
THIS MID-WEEK FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  72  89  72 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  89  69  89  71 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  89  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  89  67  88  66 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  87  72  87  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH SPRAWLED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE RIDGING REACHED FROM THE GULF REGION TO
THE UPPER MID-WEST. SURFACE - A LOW WAS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH TO MEXICO AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED IN ACROSS FL TO THE
GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH RE-LOCATES DOWN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILE A LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH
AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT GETTING STRUNG OUT BEHIND
IT...THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TX. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FL AND MUCH OF THE GULF.

THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHWARD SUN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH AN AXIS NORTH
OF THE AREA...WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED AND PERMIT A SEA BREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT FORECAST.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS EACH DAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DAILY SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH FAIRLY MODEST COVERAGE.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO OCCUR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE
SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO CONVERGE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GREATER STORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH
RATHER STOUT RIDGING ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90S DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE
ACROSS THE CONUS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AT
LEAST WEAK SEABREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BY THURSDAY...THE INITIAL FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE
REGION...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A POWERFUL UPPER
CYCLONE INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND...A
SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SURGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AREAS OF MIST ARE EXPECTED BUT NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BENIGN.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TO MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND ONLY MODEST
WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  72  89  72 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  89  69  89  71 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  92  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  90  67  88  66 /  20  20  10   0
SPG  87  72  87  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300545
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NIGHT.
PATCHY MIST EXPECT TO STAY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. PREVAILING VFR SAT
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SHIFT TO ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MEANDERED FROM THE VILLAGES TO PLANT
CITY TO PUNTA GORDA THEN EAST OF FORT MYERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
REMAINED ON THE FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY STORMS
CREATED A COUPLE OF STORMS FROM SEBRING TO SOUTH OF WAUCHULA.

EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER UNTIL 11 PM EDT THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FOR THE NATURE COAST NORTH OF
TAMPA. LOWERED ALL POPS DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  72  89  72 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  89  69  89  70 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  92  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  90  67  88  65 /  20  20  10  10
SPG  87  72  87  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300545
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NIGHT.
PATCHY MIST EXPECT TO STAY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. PREVAILING VFR SAT
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS. WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SHIFT TO ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MEANDERED FROM THE VILLAGES TO PLANT
CITY TO PUNTA GORDA THEN EAST OF FORT MYERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
REMAINED ON THE FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY STORMS
CREATED A COUPLE OF STORMS FROM SEBRING TO SOUTH OF WAUCHULA.

EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER UNTIL 11 PM EDT THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FOR THE NATURE COAST NORTH OF
TAMPA. LOWERED ALL POPS DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  72  89  72 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  89  69  89  70 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  92  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  90  67  88  65 /  20  20  10  10
SPG  87  72  87  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MEANDERED FROM THE VILLAGES TO PLANT
CITY TO PUNTA GORDA THEN EAST OF FORT MYERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
REMAINED ON THE FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY STORMS
CREATED A COUPLE OF STORMS FROM SEBRING TO SOUTH OF WAUCHULA.

EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER UNTIL 11 PM EDT THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FOR THE NATURE COAST NORTH OF
TAMPA. LOWERED ALL POPS DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN NEAR KPGD AND KRSW. VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. FROM GROUPS IN TAF DUE TO WIND DIRECTION CHANGES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE...72/NOAH
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/SOCIAL MEDIA...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MEANDERED FROM THE VILLAGES TO PLANT
CITY TO PUNTA GORDA THEN EAST OF FORT MYERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
REMAINED ON THE FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY STORMS
CREATED A COUPLE OF STORMS FROM SEBRING TO SOUTH OF WAUCHULA.

EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER UNTIL 11 PM EDT THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FOR THE NATURE COAST NORTH OF
TAMPA. LOWERED ALL POPS DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN NEAR KPGD AND KRSW. VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. FROM GROUPS IN TAF DUE TO WIND DIRECTION CHANGES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE...72/NOAH
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/SOCIAL MEDIA...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 292325
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
725 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN NEAR KPGD AND KRSW. VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. FROM GROUPS IN TAF DUE TO WIND DIRECTION CHANGES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A STRONG REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OVERALL U/L PATTERN WILL LIKELY
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN U/L DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A TRAILING STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE DIGS IN
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAINTAINING THE CUTOFF LOW OUT WEST. AN
U/L RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE
REINFORCED BY THE DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH ON SATURDAY FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD ALLOW A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MAY ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE 340NATURE COAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE. COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND L/L
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NATURE
COAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INLAND.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
A WARM AND GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
BELOW 20%. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND IN
THE 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER FLOW FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
PREPARES ITSELF FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME UP A BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
THERMODYNAMICS IN THE MID-LEVELS TO SUPPORT SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION.
STILL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...ONLY GOING 20-30% ON THE POPS AFTER
18-20Z.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...THERE DEVELOP SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOME POTENTIAL
KEY FEATURES FOR OUR FORECAST. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER(COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF) BRINGING ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND PROPELLING AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. AS RESULT...THE GFS DRIVES A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS DOWN INTO OUR REGION BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
DOES NOT BRING THIS FRONT OR THE MAIN LOBE OF UPPER VORTICITY BY OUR
REGION UNTIL SOMETIME T

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&HURSDAY. THIS IS A MUCH WETTER POTENTIAL
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY.

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST TREND WILL RAMP UP POP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF.

BY NEXT FRIDAY...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED OUT AND POPS ARE NO
LONGER IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROUGH...THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SOME BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  89  72  88 /   0  20  20  10
FMY  71  90  70  89 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  69  91  69  90 /  30  20  20  10
SRQ  70  87  70  85 /   0  10  10   0
BKV  64  89  67  89 /  10  30  30  10
SPG  74  87  72  88 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291940
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A STRONG REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OVERALL U/L PATTERN WILL LIKELY
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN U/L DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A TRAILING STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE DIGS IN
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAINTAINING THE CUTOFF LOW OUT WEST. AN
U/L RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE
REINFORCED BY THE DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH ON SATURDAY FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD ALLOW A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MAY ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NATURE COAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE. COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND L/L
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NATURE
COAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INLAND.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
A WARM AND GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
BELOW 20%. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND IN
THE 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER FLOW FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
PREPARES ITSELF FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME UP A BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
THERMODYNAMICS IN THE MID-LEVELS TO SUPPORT SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION.
STILL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...ONLY GOING 20-30% ON THE POPS AFTER
18-20Z.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...THERE DEVELOP SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOME POTENTIAL
KEY FEATURES FOR OUR FORECAST. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER(COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF) BRINGING ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND PROPELLING AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. AS RESULT...THE GFS DRIVES A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS DOWN INTO OUR REGION BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
DOES NOT BRING THIS FRONT OR THE MAIN LOBE OF UPPER VORTICITY BY OUR
REGION UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY. THIS IS A MUCH WETTER POTENTIAL
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY.

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST TREND WILL RAMP UP POP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF.

BY NEXT FRIDAY...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED OUT AND POPS ARE NO
LONGER IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROUGH...THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SOME BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  89  72  88 /   0  20  20  10
FMY  71  90  70  89 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  69  91  69  90 /  30  20  20  10
SRQ  70  87  70  85 /   0  10  10   0
BKV  64  89  67  89 /  10  30  30  10
SPG  74  87  72  88 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND TO THE INTERIOR PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE DAY. 12Z TBW
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CAPE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. W/V
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPE AND STRONG INSOLATION COMBINED
WITH L/L CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE FACTORS AND CREATE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.
ONLY UPDATE WILL BE TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
UPPER AIR...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND TO THE INTERIOR PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE DAY. 12Z TBW
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CAPE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. W/V
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPE AND STRONG INSOLATION COMBINED
WITH L/L CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE FACTORS AND CREATE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.
ONLY UPDATE WILL BE TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
UPPER AIR...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NE. SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NORTH AND INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THROUGH TUE: ALOFT - RIDGING OVER THE GULF REGION WILL CONTINUE
BUT FLATTEN SOME AS A CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN NEW ENGLAND TO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...PROVIDING INCREASING
MOISTURE...WITH A GRADIENT RELAXED ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WED THROUGH THU: ALOFT - A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
EAST AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...CARVING OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ACROSS FL WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WHICH
ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT RESULTS IN HIGH END
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS AREA WIDE. HOWEVER THESE BEGIN TO TREND DOWN
THU AS THE FRONT SLIDES OVER THE AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY EASE BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL...DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL THEN SOME DRIER COOLER AIR AFTER THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SOME
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY INLAND AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. HAVE VCTS FOR THE INLAND AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE LATE EVENING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A WEAK MOISTURE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SO HAVE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  72  89  72 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  90  70  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
GIF  91  70  91  70 /  30  20  20  20
SRQ  87  69  86  70 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  90  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  20
SPG  88  73  88  73 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NE. SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NORTH AND INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THROUGH TUE: ALOFT - RIDGING OVER THE GULF REGION WILL CONTINUE
BUT FLATTEN SOME AS A CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN NEW ENGLAND TO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...PROVIDING INCREASING
MOISTURE...WITH A GRADIENT RELAXED ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WED THROUGH THU: ALOFT - A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
EAST AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...CARVING OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ACROSS FL WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WHICH
ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT RESULTS IN HIGH END
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS AREA WIDE. HOWEVER THESE BEGIN TO TREND DOWN
THU AS THE FRONT SLIDES OVER THE AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY EASE BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL...DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL THEN SOME DRIER COOLER AIR AFTER THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SOME
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY INLAND AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. HAVE VCTS FOR THE INLAND AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE LATE EVENING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A WEAK MOISTURE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SO HAVE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  72  89  72 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  90  70  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
GIF  91  70  91  70 /  30  20  20  20
SRQ  87  69  86  70 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  90  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  20
SPG  88  73  88  73 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290622
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
222 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SOME
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY INLAND AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. HAVE VCTS FOR THE INLAND AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE LATE EVENING PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA ATTM TO WEAKEN AS ITS SINKS SOUTH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE S GULF
OF MEXICO AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX DAMPENS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING WITH CIRRUS OVER N FL AND S GA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THAN LAST NIGHT AS
WELL. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE E GULF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LATEST BUOYS REPORTING WINDS 5-10 KTS AND
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALL TAFS SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
QUASI REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENHANCE U/L RIDGING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...AN U/L RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PCPW
CONTINUE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN PLACE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THEN DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...COULD IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...99
UPPER AIR...99

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR...18/FLEMING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  72  88  72 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  10  10
GIF  91  71  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
SRQ  85  70  86  69 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  89  65  90  66 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  86  72  88  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290622
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
222 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SOME
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY INLAND AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. HAVE VCTS FOR THE INLAND AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE LATE EVENING PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA ATTM TO WEAKEN AS ITS SINKS SOUTH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE S GULF
OF MEXICO AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX DAMPENS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING WITH CIRRUS OVER N FL AND S GA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THAN LAST NIGHT AS
WELL. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE E GULF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LATEST BUOYS REPORTING WINDS 5-10 KTS AND
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALL TAFS SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
QUASI REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENHANCE U/L RIDGING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...AN U/L RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PCPW
CONTINUE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN PLACE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THEN DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...COULD IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...99
UPPER AIR...99

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR...18/FLEMING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  72  88  72 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  10  10
GIF  91  71  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
SRQ  85  70  86  69 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  89  65  90  66 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  86  72  88  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290041
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
841 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA ATTM TO WEAKEN AS ITS SINKS SOUTH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE S GULF
OF MEXICO AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX DAMPENS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING WITH CIRRUS OVER N FL AND S GA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THAN LAST NIGHT AS
WELL. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE E GULF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LATEST BUOYS REPORTING WINDS 5-10 KTS AND
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALL TAFS SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
QUASI REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENHANCE U/L RIDGING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...AN U/L RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PCPW
CONTINUE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN PLACE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THEN DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...COULD IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...99
UPPER AIR...99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT/RADAR...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 282352
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
752 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALL TAFS SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
QUASI REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENHANCE U/L RIDGING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...AN U/L RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PCPW
CONTINUE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN PLACE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THEN DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...COULD IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...99
UPPER AIR...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99





000
FXUS62 KTBW 281902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
QUASI REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENHANCE U/L RIDGING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...AN U/L RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PCPW
CONTINUE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN PLACE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THEN DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...COULD IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





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