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000
FXUS62 KTBW 291941
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PINNED GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PEAK ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER EVENING FOR
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. SOME PORTIONS OF LEE COUNTY AROUND
A BRUSH FIRE NEAR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT COULD
SEE SMOKE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SUN SETTING AND THE
INVERSION RETURNING...ANY SMOKE REMAINING OVERNIGHT WILL COME
CLOSER TO THE GROUND AND COULD POTENTIALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY IN
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FOR TOMORROW...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
THE WARM AND MOISTENING TREND CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS
FEATURE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW SETTING UP OVER LA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STUBBORN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT THIS RIDGE
WILL BE FORCED NORTH BY MID WEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS NORTH. EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE. IF MODELS TREND THE PATH MORE EASTWARD
RAIN CHANCES COULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
MOISTURE SURGE. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TOWARDS THE STATE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME RAIN FROM CONVECTION COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR. RSW COULD SEE SMOKE RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM A
NEARBY WILDFIRE WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO PINPOINT IF THIS WILL OCCUR. 00Z TAFS
MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION IF AN UPDATE FROM THE
FIRE IS PROVIDED.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...COULD REACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETREATING SEA BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COMING DAYS...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR INLAND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  89  73  90 /  20  40  50  40
FMY  71  92  72  91 /  20  40  50  50
GIF  71  91  72  92 /  10  40  20  50
SRQ  71  89  73  88 /  20  30  40  40
BKV  67  91  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
SPG  74  89  75  89 /  20  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291941
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PINNED GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PEAK ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER EVENING FOR
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. SOME PORTIONS OF LEE COUNTY AROUND
A BRUSH FIRE NEAR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT COULD
SEE SMOKE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SUN SETTING AND THE
INVERSION RETURNING...ANY SMOKE REMAINING OVERNIGHT WILL COME
CLOSER TO THE GROUND AND COULD POTENTIALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY IN
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FOR TOMORROW...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
THE WARM AND MOISTENING TREND CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS
FEATURE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW SETTING UP OVER LA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STUBBORN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT THIS RIDGE
WILL BE FORCED NORTH BY MID WEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS NORTH. EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE. IF MODELS TREND THE PATH MORE EASTWARD
RAIN CHANCES COULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
MOISTURE SURGE. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TOWARDS THE STATE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME RAIN FROM CONVECTION COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR. RSW COULD SEE SMOKE RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM A
NEARBY WILDFIRE WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO PINPOINT IF THIS WILL OCCUR. 00Z TAFS
MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION IF AN UPDATE FROM THE
FIRE IS PROVIDED.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...COULD REACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETREATING SEA BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COMING DAYS...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR INLAND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  89  73  90 /  20  40  50  40
FMY  71  92  72  91 /  20  40  50  50
GIF  71  91  72  92 /  10  40  20  50
SRQ  71  89  73  88 /  20  30  40  40
BKV  67  91  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
SPG  74  89  75  89 /  20  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291431 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS SOME MORNING CONVECTION
MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL STAY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

WILL MONITOR FORECAST AS SITUATION PLAYS ITSELF OUT. FOR THE
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY WINDS WERE MADE ALONG WITH THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF LEE
COUNTY AROUND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DUE TO A
WILDFIRE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT RSW...WITH OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED THE MOST. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT THOSE NEAR THE COAST...PIE/TPA/SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO
SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES THEIR AREA.
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS COULD CREATE CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  73 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  50  40
GIF  90  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SRQ  89  71  90  73 /  30  20  40  40
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  20   0  50  30
SPG  88  72  90  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291431 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS SOME MORNING CONVECTION
MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL STAY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

WILL MONITOR FORECAST AS SITUATION PLAYS ITSELF OUT. FOR THE
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY WINDS WERE MADE ALONG WITH THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF LEE
COUNTY AROUND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DUE TO A
WILDFIRE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT RSW...WITH OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED THE MOST. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT THOSE NEAR THE COAST...PIE/TPA/SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO
SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES THEIR AREA.
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS COULD CREATE CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  73 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  50  40
GIF  90  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SRQ  89  71  90  73 /  30  20  40  40
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  20   0  50  30
SPG  88  72  90  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290742
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
342 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. KEEPING AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. DURING TODAY SOME
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5
INCHES...WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO
THE COAST AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SOME RAIN WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED. ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE WEST
OUT INTO THE GULF DURING THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY WE SHOULD
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES...TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER SO THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND SOME...BUT
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURES TO IMPACT THE REGION TO BE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA THOUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING E-SE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINES WITH SEA/BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WITH BEST COVERAGE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD REACH EXERCISE CAUTION
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...
OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND ERC AND WINDS STAY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  73 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  50  40
GIF  90  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SRQ  89  71  90  73 /  30  20  40  40
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  20   0  50  30
SPG  88  75  89  76 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290742
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
342 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. KEEPING AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. DURING TODAY SOME
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5
INCHES...WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO
THE COAST AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SOME RAIN WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED. ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE WEST
OUT INTO THE GULF DURING THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY WE SHOULD
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES...TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER SO THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND SOME...BUT
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURES TO IMPACT THE REGION TO BE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA THOUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING E-SE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINES WITH SEA/BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WITH BEST COVERAGE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD REACH EXERCISE CAUTION
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...
OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND ERC AND WINDS STAY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  73 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  50  40
GIF  90  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SRQ  89  71  90  73 /  30  20  40  40
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  20   0  50  30
SPG  88  75  89  76 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290028
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS
FL AND INTO THE GULF...WITH NORTHEAST OR EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
MAY BE ROBUST AT TIMES THIS EVENING. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL
UPDATE BY 10 PM TO COVER SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z-29/24Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH
RSW WILL SEE SOME FU (SMOKE) EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRI FOR VCNTY TSRA AND FEW CB...BEGINNING
18Z-21Z. WINDS EAST OR NE...AND ROBUST THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A NOCTURNAL
SURGE THIS EVENING BUMPING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FRI WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
FMY  69  91  71  91 /   0  40  10  40
GIF  68  89  71  91 /   0  20   0  40
SRQ  69  88  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
BKV  65  89  68  91 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  73  87  75  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290028
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS
FL AND INTO THE GULF...WITH NORTHEAST OR EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
MAY BE ROBUST AT TIMES THIS EVENING. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL
UPDATE BY 10 PM TO COVER SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z-29/24Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH
RSW WILL SEE SOME FU (SMOKE) EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRI FOR VCNTY TSRA AND FEW CB...BEGINNING
18Z-21Z. WINDS EAST OR NE...AND ROBUST THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A NOCTURNAL
SURGE THIS EVENING BUMPING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FRI WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
FMY  69  91  71  91 /   0  40  10  40
GIF  68  89  71  91 /   0  20   0  40
SRQ  69  88  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
BKV  65  89  68  91 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  73  87  75  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290028
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS
FL AND INTO THE GULF...WITH NORTHEAST OR EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
MAY BE ROBUST AT TIMES THIS EVENING. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL
UPDATE BY 10 PM TO COVER SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z-29/24Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH
RSW WILL SEE SOME FU (SMOKE) EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRI FOR VCNTY TSRA AND FEW CB...BEGINNING
18Z-21Z. WINDS EAST OR NE...AND ROBUST THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A NOCTURNAL
SURGE THIS EVENING BUMPING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FRI WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
FMY  69  91  71  91 /   0  40  10  40
GIF  68  89  71  91 /   0  20   0  40
SRQ  69  88  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
BKV  65  89  68  91 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  73  87  75  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290028
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS
FL AND INTO THE GULF...WITH NORTHEAST OR EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
MAY BE ROBUST AT TIMES THIS EVENING. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL
UPDATE BY 10 PM TO COVER SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z-29/24Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH
RSW WILL SEE SOME FU (SMOKE) EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRI FOR VCNTY TSRA AND FEW CB...BEGINNING
18Z-21Z. WINDS EAST OR NE...AND ROBUST THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A NOCTURNAL
SURGE THIS EVENING BUMPING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FRI WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
FMY  69  91  71  91 /   0  40  10  40
GIF  68  89  71  91 /   0  20   0  40
SRQ  69  88  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
BKV  65  89  68  91 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  73  87  75  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 281833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
COUPLE PERTURBATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA HAS HELPED TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A DECENT PUSH FROM THE
EASTERLY WINDS IS HELPING TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL SHIFT IN WINDS.
WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE FORCING RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR REMAINS
THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO HAVE SIDED
WITH THE WRF AND HI RES NMM AND KEPT THE SEA BREEZE WIND SHIFT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER MAY SEE WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NNE RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE.

FOR TOMORROW... DRY AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE
MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURES SURGES ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTH ZONES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE TOMORROW WILL AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE
SHIFTING INLAND AND IF IT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE PINNED
ALONG THE COASTLINE. EXPECT SOME FORCING ALONG THE COAST SO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST
OF I 75. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN POTENTIAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
SETTING UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOME WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
FEATURE BUT IN GENERAL BOTH MEANDER THIS LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. DESPITE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO 2+
INCHES) BEING DRAWN NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MID
WEEK ON.

FOR NOW WILL DEPICT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE (THOUGH
THESE VALUES MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS) AND
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN NEAR NORMAL FROM MID WEEK ON AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES EXPECT VSCH OR VCTS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF HELPING TO MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED EXPECT AN
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME EXCESS MOISTURE STREAMING
ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH EAST WINDS BREEZY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND RH WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECTING THE DRY AIR TO
MODERATE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS... MAINLY SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
FMY  69  91  71  91 /   0  40  10  40
GIF  68  89  71  91 /   0  20   0  40
SRQ  69  88  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
BKV  65  89  68  91 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  73  87  75  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
COUPLE PERTURBATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA HAS HELPED TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A DECENT PUSH FROM THE
EASTERLY WINDS IS HELPING TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL SHIFT IN WINDS.
WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE FORCING RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR REMAINS
THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO HAVE SIDED
WITH THE WRF AND HI RES NMM AND KEPT THE SEA BREEZE WIND SHIFT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER MAY SEE WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NNE RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE.

FOR TOMORROW... DRY AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE
MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURES SURGES ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTH ZONES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE TOMORROW WILL AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE
SHIFTING INLAND AND IF IT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE PINNED
ALONG THE COASTLINE. EXPECT SOME FORCING ALONG THE COAST SO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST
OF I 75. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN POTENTIAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
SETTING UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOME WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
FEATURE BUT IN GENERAL BOTH MEANDER THIS LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. DESPITE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO 2+
INCHES) BEING DRAWN NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MID
WEEK ON.

FOR NOW WILL DEPICT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE (THOUGH
THESE VALUES MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS) AND
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN NEAR NORMAL FROM MID WEEK ON AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES EXPECT VSCH OR VCTS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF HELPING TO MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED EXPECT AN
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME EXCESS MOISTURE STREAMING
ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH EAST WINDS BREEZY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND RH WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECTING THE DRY AIR TO
MODERATE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS... MAINLY SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
FMY  69  91  71  91 /   0  40  10  40
GIF  68  89  71  91 /   0  20   0  40
SRQ  69  88  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
BKV  65  89  68  91 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  73  87  75  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL





000
FXUS62 KTBW 281419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A NOTICEABLE LACK IN INSTABILITY. CANNOT
JUSTIFY ADDING/INCREASING POPS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WHETHER OR NOT A SEA
BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR IF THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERCOME ANY DIURNAL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY SAW A
MINOR WIND SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINE BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING THAT TODAY.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER TODAY OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE FROM THE MANATEE COUNTY
COASTLINE UP TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST. WILL SIDE WITH LOCAL WRF
AND SHOW ONLY A BRIEF SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING AS EASTERLY FLOW OVER POWERS SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE... NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE... EARLY MORNING SAW A DECENT EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE TO
15 TO 20 KT ACROSS WATERS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. EXPECTING A
SIMILAR SET UP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40
GIF  89  68  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  91  64  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  90  72  88  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL





000
FXUS62 KTBW 281419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A NOTICEABLE LACK IN INSTABILITY. CANNOT
JUSTIFY ADDING/INCREASING POPS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WHETHER OR NOT A SEA
BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR IF THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERCOME ANY DIURNAL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY SAW A
MINOR WIND SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINE BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING THAT TODAY.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER TODAY OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE FROM THE MANATEE COUNTY
COASTLINE UP TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST. WILL SIDE WITH LOCAL WRF
AND SHOW ONLY A BRIEF SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING AS EASTERLY FLOW OVER POWERS SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE... NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE... EARLY MORNING SAW A DECENT EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE TO
15 TO 20 KT ACROSS WATERS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. EXPECTING A
SIMILAR SET UP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40
GIF  89  68  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  91  64  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  90  72  88  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A NOTICEABLE LACK IN INSTABILITY. CANNOT
JUSTIFY ADDING/INCREASING POPS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WHETHER OR NOT A SEA
BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR IF THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERCOME ANY DIURNAL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY SAW A
MINOR WIND SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINE BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING THAT TODAY.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER TODAY OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE FROM THE MANATEE COUNTY
COASTLINE UP TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST. WILL SIDE WITH LOCAL WRF
AND SHOW ONLY A BRIEF SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING AS EASTERLY FLOW OVER POWERS SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE... NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE... EARLY MORNING SAW A DECENT EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE TO
15 TO 20 KT ACROSS WATERS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. EXPECTING A
SIMILAR SET UP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40
GIF  89  68  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  91  64  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  90  72  88  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A NOTICEABLE LACK IN INSTABILITY. CANNOT
JUSTIFY ADDING/INCREASING POPS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WHETHER OR NOT A SEA
BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR IF THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERCOME ANY DIURNAL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY SAW A
MINOR WIND SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINE BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING THAT TODAY.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER TODAY OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE FROM THE MANATEE COUNTY
COASTLINE UP TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST. WILL SIDE WITH LOCAL WRF
AND SHOW ONLY A BRIEF SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING AS EASTERLY FLOW OVER POWERS SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE... NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE... EARLY MORNING SAW A DECENT EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE TO
15 TO 20 KT ACROSS WATERS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. EXPECTING A
SIMILAR SET UP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40
GIF  89  68  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  91  64  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  90  72  88  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKEN AND A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. KEEPING A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE RATHER DRY AIR...
PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT. DURING FRIDAY DEEPER
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT THE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IN
WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FURTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC WHILE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION FINALLY EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FINALLY WEAKENS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND BUT KEEPS E-SE FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEEP LAYER MOISTENING AND DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA/BAY
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR LATE MAY
INTO EARLY JUNE.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE N CARIBBEAN...BUT THAT
TIMEFRAME GETS INTO HIGHER MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO BE CREDIBLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
REACH EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT...BUT WITH THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE RATHER HIGH TODAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40
GIF  89  68  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  91  64  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  90  74  88  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280045
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...TODAY HAS BEEN VERY QUIET AND MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS
EVENINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 00Z
SOUNDING CAME IN AT ONLY 0.95 INCHES PWAT...NEARLY 1 INCH LOWER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS DRY AIR HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS ANY SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
RANGING FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL SO NO
CHANGES NEED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUR OF THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280045
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...TODAY HAS BEEN VERY QUIET AND MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS
EVENINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 00Z
SOUNDING CAME IN AT ONLY 0.95 INCHES PWAT...NEARLY 1 INCH LOWER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS DRY AIR HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS ANY SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
RANGING FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL SO NO
CHANGES NEED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUR OF THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280045
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...TODAY HAS BEEN VERY QUIET AND MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS
EVENINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 00Z
SOUNDING CAME IN AT ONLY 0.95 INCHES PWAT...NEARLY 1 INCH LOWER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS DRY AIR HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS ANY SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
RANGING FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL SO NO
CHANGES NEED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUR OF THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271842
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THIS SHORT WAVE A VORT
MAX REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY THE EVENING
HELPING TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW... A DRIER AIR MASS HAS
ADVECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR AND A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP.
HOWEVER... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SOME EXCESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FORM LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE TOMORROW BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE LACKING. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARM TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A 500 MB LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLOW PACE OF
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE PINNED SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE...A REMINDER THAT SUMMER IS NEAR.

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRAWS TO A CLOSE...THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THE SURFACE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN AROUND THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS A TAD HIGHER THAN USUAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS NEAR COASTAL
TAF SITES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NNW AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONLY GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF WIND SHIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST. NOCTURNAL SURGES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BUT RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271842
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THIS SHORT WAVE A VORT
MAX REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY THE EVENING
HELPING TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW... A DRIER AIR MASS HAS
ADVECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR AND A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP.
HOWEVER... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SOME EXCESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FORM LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE TOMORROW BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE LACKING. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARM TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A 500 MB LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLOW PACE OF
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE PINNED SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE...A REMINDER THAT SUMMER IS NEAR.

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRAWS TO A CLOSE...THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THE SURFACE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN AROUND THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS A TAD HIGHER THAN USUAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS NEAR COASTAL
TAF SITES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NNW AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONLY GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF WIND SHIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST. NOCTURNAL SURGES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BUT RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271842
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THIS SHORT WAVE A VORT
MAX REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY THE EVENING
HELPING TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW... A DRIER AIR MASS HAS
ADVECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR AND A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP.
HOWEVER... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SOME EXCESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FORM LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE TOMORROW BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE LACKING. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARM TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A 500 MB LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLOW PACE OF
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE PINNED SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE...A REMINDER THAT SUMMER IS NEAR.

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRAWS TO A CLOSE...THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THE SURFACE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN AROUND THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS A TAD HIGHER THAN USUAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS NEAR COASTAL
TAF SITES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NNW AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONLY GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF WIND SHIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST. NOCTURNAL SURGES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BUT RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271842
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THIS SHORT WAVE A VORT
MAX REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY THE EVENING
HELPING TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW... A DRIER AIR MASS HAS
ADVECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR AND A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP.
HOWEVER... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SOME EXCESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FORM LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE TOMORROW BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE LACKING. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARM TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A 500 MB LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLOW PACE OF
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE PINNED SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE...A REMINDER THAT SUMMER IS NEAR.

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRAWS TO A CLOSE...THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THE SURFACE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN AROUND THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS A TAD HIGHER THAN USUAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS NEAR COASTAL
TAF SITES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NNW AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONLY GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF WIND SHIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST. NOCTURNAL SURGES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BUT RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
FMY  71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  71  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  30
BKV  67  90  65  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  89  73  88 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OVER NIGHT
WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW ALONG
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REACHED THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN AFTERNOON AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEVERAL WARNING AND
STATEMENTS...A FEW OF WHICH ARE STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN WINDING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS ON TRACK BUT MAY MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH COVERAGE AND ENDING TIMES WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-27/24Z. LATE AFTERNOON TSRA WITH LCL IFR HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH JUST MVFR UNTIL 01-02Z. LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO ONSHORE
AT TPA/PIE/SRQ IN THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE GULF AND
WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THE STORMS DIMINISH PREVAILING EASTERLY
WINDS TAKE OVER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OVER NIGHT
WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW ALONG
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REACHED THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN AFTERNOON AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEVERAL WARNING AND
STATEMENTS...A FEW OF WHICH ARE STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN WINDING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS ON TRACK BUT MAY MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH COVERAGE AND ENDING TIMES WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-27/24Z. LATE AFTERNOON TSRA WITH LCL IFR HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH JUST MVFR UNTIL 01-02Z. LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO ONSHORE
AT TPA/PIE/SRQ IN THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE GULF AND
WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THE STORMS DIMINISH PREVAILING EASTERLY
WINDS TAKE OVER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA




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