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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
837 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED 165 NM EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH WITH A
DIFFUSE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
RADAR CURRENTLY HAS RAIN OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST. THE INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. RADAR WAS ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES
SCATTERED ACROSS THE GULF FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE EVENING
SOUNDING SHOWED A CAPE OF 2405 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE
LATER TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CURRENTLY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AFTER 09Z. COVERAGE IS A TOUGH CALL
AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP FORECAST VFR WITH VCSH OR VCTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE... LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 0 TO 60+ MILES
OFFSHORE FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER WILL DIMINISH. A
SERIES OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...
PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM THURSDAY EVENING.
CITRUS COUNTY HAD THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD
2 TO 3 INCHES. AREAS MOST AT RISK INCLUDE THE EAST LAKE AREA OF
PINELLAS...NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH...AND ALL OF PASCO...HERNANDO...
AND CITRUS COUNTIES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
HYDROLOGY/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...13/OGLESBY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
837 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED 165 NM EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH WITH A
DIFFUSE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
RADAR CURRENTLY HAS RAIN OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST. THE INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. RADAR WAS ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES
SCATTERED ACROSS THE GULF FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE EVENING
SOUNDING SHOWED A CAPE OF 2405 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE
LATER TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CURRENTLY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AFTER 09Z. COVERAGE IS A TOUGH CALL
AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP FORECAST VFR WITH VCSH OR VCTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE... LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 0 TO 60+ MILES
OFFSHORE FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER WILL DIMINISH. A
SERIES OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...
PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM THURSDAY EVENING.
CITRUS COUNTY HAD THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD
2 TO 3 INCHES. AREAS MOST AT RISK INCLUDE THE EAST LAKE AREA OF
PINELLAS...NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH...AND ALL OF PASCO...HERNANDO...
AND CITRUS COUNTIES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
HYDROLOGY/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...13/OGLESBY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291912
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A BIT MORE SURFACE HEATING OVER
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE RESULTED
IN STRONGER CONVECTION THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE MOST
PART THE STORM MOTION HAS KEPT ANY AREA FROM SEEING MORE THAN
ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING NO MORE THAN A
HALF INCH OR SO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...KEEPING A
BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AS HIGH AS TWO AND A THIRD
INCHES...MEANING THE RAINY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST OFF THE NATURE
COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...WITH
LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH VFR
REGAINING CONTROL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY AT ALMOST ANY TIME
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FAST MOVING ENOUGH AND
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THIS WILL BE THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY OF
LIMITED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MEANING THAT THE GROUND HAS BEEN
GIVEN A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND
THE WATCH PAST 8 PM THIS EVENING UNLESS SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...SO AS ALWAYS DURING THE SUMMER...LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  79  88  78 /  50  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  90  77 /  60  20  50  30
GIF  91  76  91  75 /  60  20  70  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  76  89  75 /  50  40  70  40
SPG  88  79  88  79 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291912
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A BIT MORE SURFACE HEATING OVER
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE RESULTED
IN STRONGER CONVECTION THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE MOST
PART THE STORM MOTION HAS KEPT ANY AREA FROM SEEING MORE THAN
ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING NO MORE THAN A
HALF INCH OR SO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...KEEPING A
BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AS HIGH AS TWO AND A THIRD
INCHES...MEANING THE RAINY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST OFF THE NATURE
COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...WITH
LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH VFR
REGAINING CONTROL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY AT ALMOST ANY TIME
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FAST MOVING ENOUGH AND
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THIS WILL BE THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY OF
LIMITED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MEANING THAT THE GROUND HAS BEEN
GIVEN A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND
THE WATCH PAST 8 PM THIS EVENING UNLESS SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...SO AS ALWAYS DURING THE SUMMER...LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  79  88  78 /  50  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  90  77 /  60  20  50  30
GIF  91  76  91  75 /  60  20  70  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  76  89  75 /  50  40  70  40
SPG  88  79  88  79 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291328
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.09
INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT STILL PLENTY MOIST TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMING INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER TODAY...SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTIES. RAINFALL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE YESTERDAY...SO
UNLESS THE WATCH AREA SEES SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN NORTH
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES...THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK UP OVER THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE IN TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291328
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.09
INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT STILL PLENTY MOIST TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMING INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER TODAY...SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTIES. RAINFALL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE YESTERDAY...SO
UNLESS THE WATCH AREA SEES SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN NORTH
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES...THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK UP OVER THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE IN TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291328
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.09
INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT STILL PLENTY MOIST TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMING INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER TODAY...SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTIES. RAINFALL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE YESTERDAY...SO
UNLESS THE WATCH AREA SEES SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN NORTH
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES...THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK UP OVER THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE IN TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)... THE PERSISTENT COMPLEX AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. TROUGHING THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TOWARDS FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE OUR WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OFF THE NE FL COAST WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW
AND HELPING MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER... CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT THIS AIR MASS BEGINNING TO MODERATE AS SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
TODAY... GIVEN THE AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...EXPECTING LOWER RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT
STILL SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL FILTER THROUGH THE PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH THE FOCUS BEING THE NATURE COAST. THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TOMORROW. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW.

BRIEFLY CONSIDERED DIALING BACK THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE
FORECAST TRENDING BACK TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW... DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE WATCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MESSY PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS TEND
TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING THIS WEEKEND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OR FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THEN SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A
BROADER FEATURE. EITHER WAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
VCSH AND VCTS AGAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN TAF SITES..
THANKS TO PERSIST MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING BY THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DRAW
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUDNERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH A LIKELY CHANCE BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE TOWARDS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LESS FOR TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED REGIONS COULD
EXACERBATE CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD BRING THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT
ELFERS AROUND THE MINOR-MODERATE FLOOD BORDERLINE OF 22 FEET. THE
OTHERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
INTO FLOODED RIVER BASINS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AS SATURATED GROUND IS MAKING FOR FAST RISES IN RIVER
LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  30  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)... THE PERSISTENT COMPLEX AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. TROUGHING THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TOWARDS FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE OUR WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OFF THE NE FL COAST WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW
AND HELPING MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER... CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT THIS AIR MASS BEGINNING TO MODERATE AS SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
TODAY... GIVEN THE AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...EXPECTING LOWER RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT
STILL SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL FILTER THROUGH THE PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH THE FOCUS BEING THE NATURE COAST. THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TOMORROW. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW.

BRIEFLY CONSIDERED DIALING BACK THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE
FORECAST TRENDING BACK TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW... DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE WATCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MESSY PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS TEND
TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING THIS WEEKEND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OR FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THEN SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A
BROADER FEATURE. EITHER WAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
VCSH AND VCTS AGAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN TAF SITES..
THANKS TO PERSIST MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING BY THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DRAW
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUDNERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH A LIKELY CHANCE BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE TOWARDS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LESS FOR TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED REGIONS COULD
EXACERBATE CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD BRING THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT
ELFERS AROUND THE MINOR-MODERATE FLOOD BORDERLINE OF 22 FEET. THE
OTHERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
INTO FLOODED RIVER BASINS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AS SATURATED GROUND IS MAKING FOR FAST RISES IN RIVER
LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  30  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)... THE PERSISTENT COMPLEX AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. TROUGHING THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TOWARDS FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE OUR WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OFF THE NE FL COAST WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW
AND HELPING MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER... CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT THIS AIR MASS BEGINNING TO MODERATE AS SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
TODAY... GIVEN THE AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...EXPECTING LOWER RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT
STILL SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL FILTER THROUGH THE PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH THE FOCUS BEING THE NATURE COAST. THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TOMORROW. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW.

BRIEFLY CONSIDERED DIALING BACK THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE
FORECAST TRENDING BACK TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW... DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE WATCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MESSY PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS TEND
TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING THIS WEEKEND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OR FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THEN SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A
BROADER FEATURE. EITHER WAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
VCSH AND VCTS AGAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN TAF SITES..
THANKS TO PERSIST MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING BY THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DRAW
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUDNERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH A LIKELY CHANCE BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE TOWARDS A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LESS FOR TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED REGIONS COULD
EXACERBATE CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD BRING THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT
ELFERS AROUND THE MINOR-MODERATE FLOOD BORDERLINE OF 22 FEET. THE
OTHERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
INTO FLOODED RIVER BASINS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AS SATURATED GROUND IS MAKING FOR FAST RISES IN RIVER
LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  30  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290153 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES...

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE NATURE COAST
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS REMAIN ALONG A
LINE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST. CONVECTION SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE...CONVECTION WILL FOCUS AROUND BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD BACK ONSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
ZONES AND TWEAKED THE GRIDDED FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA CONTINUING WITH THE REGIME THAT WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OVER THE
LAST WEEK. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SHORT
TERM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR
AREA...RESULTING IN FLOODING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CERTAIN
REGIONS ALREADY SATURATED BY PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONSHORE FLOW...WITH THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL
ALSO INFLUENCE OUR PRECIPITATION AND CAN RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR
POPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS KEEP OUR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR DURING
HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST
OF THE EVENING POTENTIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES. ALLOWED WATCH TO EXPIRE FROM MANATEE SOUTHWARD.
MOST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAS SEEN MUCH LESS RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FLOODED AREAS TO DRAIN.

THE RIVERS IN FLOOD ARE ALL AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE OR LOWER AT THE
MOMENT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD KEEP THE
ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AROUND THE MINOR-MODERATE FLOOD BORDERLINE
OF 22 FEET. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL INTO FLOODED RIVER BASINS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS SATURATED GROUND
IS MAKING FOR FAST RISES IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  20  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA AND 08/PERRINI
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...72/NOAH
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290153 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES...

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE NATURE COAST
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS REMAIN ALONG A
LINE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST. CONVECTION SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE...CONVECTION WILL FOCUS AROUND BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD BACK ONSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
ZONES AND TWEAKED THE GRIDDED FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA CONTINUING WITH THE REGIME THAT WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OVER THE
LAST WEEK. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SHORT
TERM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR
AREA...RESULTING IN FLOODING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CERTAIN
REGIONS ALREADY SATURATED BY PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONSHORE FLOW...WITH THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL
ALSO INFLUENCE OUR PRECIPITATION AND CAN RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR
POPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS KEEP OUR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR DURING
HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST
OF THE EVENING POTENTIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES. ALLOWED WATCH TO EXPIRE FROM MANATEE SOUTHWARD.
MOST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAS SEEN MUCH LESS RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FLOODED AREAS TO DRAIN.

THE RIVERS IN FLOOD ARE ALL AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE OR LOWER AT THE
MOMENT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD KEEP THE
ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AROUND THE MINOR-MODERATE FLOOD BORDERLINE
OF 22 FEET. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL INTO FLOODED RIVER BASINS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS SATURATED GROUND
IS MAKING FOR FAST RISES IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  20  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA AND 08/PERRINI
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...72/NOAH
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...09/RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 282001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AS OF 3 PM TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA
HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE THE VOLUME OF RAIN TOTALS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
TOTALING AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF
UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OVER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS STILL A VERY HIGH 2.21
INCHES...AND THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND
OF 2 PLUS INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND...MEANING THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON
A PARTICULAR SPOT IN A SHORT ABOUT OF TIME.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD. AS
SUCH...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TO WATCH HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS IN PINELLAS...WESTERN PASCO...AND WESTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AS ANY MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO A DAY WILL
EXACERBATE THE EXISTING FLOODING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK
OFFSHORE. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY HAS SO FAR NOT PRODUCED THE EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT WERE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS IN
PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES THAT SAW AS MUCH AS AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
HEAVY RAIN...WITH FURTHER FLOODING. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY GENERALLY SAW AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS...AND THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE FROM AROUND
MANATEE COUNTY NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH FROM MANATEE
COUNTY TO LEE COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z THIS
EVENING. FROM HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO
COUNTY...THE WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...MOST
NOTABLY...THE ANCLOTE AT ELFERS THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT IS FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE CYPRESS CREEK...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER...AND
MYAKKA RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND SARASOTA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 282001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AS OF 3 PM TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA
HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE THE VOLUME OF RAIN TOTALS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
TOTALING AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF
UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OVER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS STILL A VERY HIGH 2.21
INCHES...AND THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND
OF 2 PLUS INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND...MEANING THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON
A PARTICULAR SPOT IN A SHORT ABOUT OF TIME.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD. AS
SUCH...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TO WATCH HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS IN PINELLAS...WESTERN PASCO...AND WESTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AS ANY MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO A DAY WILL
EXACERBATE THE EXISTING FLOODING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK
OFFSHORE. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY HAS SO FAR NOT PRODUCED THE EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT WERE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS IN
PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES THAT SAW AS MUCH AS AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
HEAVY RAIN...WITH FURTHER FLOODING. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY GENERALLY SAW AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS...AND THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE FROM AROUND
MANATEE COUNTY NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH FROM MANATEE
COUNTY TO LEE COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z THIS
EVENING. FROM HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO
COUNTY...THE WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...MOST
NOTABLY...THE ANCLOTE AT ELFERS THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT IS FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE CYPRESS CREEK...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER...AND
MYAKKA RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND SARASOTA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 282001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AS OF 3 PM TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA
HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE THE VOLUME OF RAIN TOTALS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
TOTALING AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF
UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OVER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS STILL A VERY HIGH 2.21
INCHES...AND THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND
OF 2 PLUS INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND...MEANING THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON
A PARTICULAR SPOT IN A SHORT ABOUT OF TIME.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD. AS
SUCH...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TO WATCH HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS IN PINELLAS...WESTERN PASCO...AND WESTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AS ANY MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO A DAY WILL
EXACERBATE THE EXISTING FLOODING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK
OFFSHORE. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY HAS SO FAR NOT PRODUCED THE EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT WERE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS IN
PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES THAT SAW AS MUCH AS AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
HEAVY RAIN...WITH FURTHER FLOODING. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY GENERALLY SAW AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS...AND THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE FROM AROUND
MANATEE COUNTY NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH FROM MANATEE
COUNTY TO LEE COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z THIS
EVENING. FROM HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO
COUNTY...THE WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...MOST
NOTABLY...THE ANCLOTE AT ELFERS THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT IS FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE CYPRESS CREEK...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER...AND
MYAKKA RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND SARASOTA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 282001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AS OF 3 PM TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA
HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE THE VOLUME OF RAIN TOTALS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
TOTALING AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF
UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES OVER PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OVER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS STILL A VERY HIGH 2.21
INCHES...AND THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND
OF 2 PLUS INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND...MEANING THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ON
A PARTICULAR SPOT IN A SHORT ABOUT OF TIME.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD. AS
SUCH...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TO WATCH HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS IN PINELLAS...WESTERN PASCO...AND WESTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AS ANY MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO A DAY WILL
EXACERBATE THE EXISTING FLOODING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE
STATE/ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS PATTERN WILL MEANDER IN
LOCATION...BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOUTHERN
HALF WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK
OFFSHORE. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY HAS SO FAR NOT PRODUCED THE EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT WERE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS IN
PINELLAS AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES THAT SAW AS MUCH AS AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
HEAVY RAIN...WITH FURTHER FLOODING. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY GENERALLY SAW AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS...AND THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE FROM AROUND
MANATEE COUNTY NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH FROM MANATEE
COUNTY TO LEE COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z THIS
EVENING. FROM HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO
COUNTY...THE WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...MOST
NOTABLY...THE ANCLOTE AT ELFERS THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT IS FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE CYPRESS CREEK...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER...AND
MYAKKA RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  50  60  50  60
FMY  78  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  40
GIF  76  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  60
SRQ  78  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  79  88 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND SARASOTA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 281334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...WRITTEN AND SENT OUT BY WFO MLB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...CONTINUED WET PATTERN TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA. THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH STORM STEERING FLOW TAKING
ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CAUSING NUISANCE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE OTHER CONCERNS IN
STRONGER CELLS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE AT TAF SITES. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS SURROUNDING CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FEET...BUT WINDS/SEAS BOTH MAY BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN VICINITY OF STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD
REMAINS SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS...NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS...VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.  WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM HERNANDO
COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS CRESTED MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
FALLING SLOWLY SINCE.  HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLS
ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN TODAY THE RIVER COULD HOLD AT CURRENT LEVELS
OR RISE AGAIN.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER
AT WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK...AND CYPRESS
CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE ALAFIA RIVER...AND IF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN THE ALAFIA RIVER BASIN TODAY...THE RIVER COULD
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  78  88  78 /  80  40  50  40
FMY  88  77  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
GIF  86  76  90  76 /  70  20  50  30
SRQ  85  78  88  78 /  60  40  50  40
BKV  84  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SPG  84  79  88  79 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

TES




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...WRITTEN AND SENT OUT BY WFO MLB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...CONTINUED WET PATTERN TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA. THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH STORM STEERING FLOW TAKING
ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CAUSING NUISANCE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE OTHER CONCERNS IN
STRONGER CELLS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE AT TAF SITES. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS SURROUNDING CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FEET...BUT WINDS/SEAS BOTH MAY BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN VICINITY OF STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD
REMAINS SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS...NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS...VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.  WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM HERNANDO
COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS CRESTED MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
FALLING SLOWLY SINCE.  HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLS
ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN TODAY THE RIVER COULD HOLD AT CURRENT LEVELS
OR RISE AGAIN.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER
AT WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK...AND CYPRESS
CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE ALAFIA RIVER...AND IF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN THE ALAFIA RIVER BASIN TODAY...THE RIVER COULD
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  78  88  78 /  80  40  50  40
FMY  88  77  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
GIF  86  76  90  76 /  70  20  50  30
SRQ  85  78  88  78 /  60  40  50  40
BKV  84  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SPG  84  79  88  79 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

TES





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280732
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
332 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...CONTINUED WET PATTERN TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT ON
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  REGION OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER AND TO THE WEST OF TAMPA BAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TODAY.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE...SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.  SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PCPW VALUES WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.  DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A FLOOD WATCH WILL PERSIST TODAY FROM
HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HELD SOUTH OF THE
STATE. MEAN FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
AND WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
AROUND 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES OVER
THE NATURE COAST)...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE CONTINUING TO MEANDER AROUND NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH WIND
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE VALUES
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...THERE WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WHILE LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS...WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS MAINLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.  WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM HERNANDO COUNTY
SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS CRESTED MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
FALLING SLOWLY SINCE.  HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLS
ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN TODAY THE RIVER COULD HOLD AT CURRENT LEVELS
OR RISE AGAIN.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER
AT WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK...AND CYPRESS
CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE ALAFIA RIVER...AND IF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN THE ALAFIA RIVER BASIN TODAY...THE RIVER COULD
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  78  88  78 /  80  40  50  40
FMY  88  77  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
GIF  86  76  90  76 /  70  20  50  30
SRQ  85  78  88  78 /  60  40  50  40
BKV  84  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SPG  84  79  88  79 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280732
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
332 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...CONTINUED WET PATTERN TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT ON
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  REGION OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER AND TO THE WEST OF TAMPA BAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TODAY.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE...SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.  SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PCPW VALUES WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.  DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A FLOOD WATCH WILL PERSIST TODAY FROM
HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HELD SOUTH OF THE
STATE. MEAN FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
AND WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
AROUND 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES OVER
THE NATURE COAST)...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE CONTINUING TO MEANDER AROUND NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH WIND
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE VALUES
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...THERE WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WHILE LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS...WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS MAINLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.  WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM HERNANDO COUNTY
SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS CRESTED MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
FALLING SLOWLY SINCE.  HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLS
ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN TODAY THE RIVER COULD HOLD AT CURRENT LEVELS
OR RISE AGAIN.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER
AT WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK...AND CYPRESS
CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE ALAFIA RIVER...AND IF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN THE ALAFIA RIVER BASIN TODAY...THE RIVER COULD
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  78  88  78 /  80  40  50  40
FMY  88  77  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
GIF  86  76  90  76 /  70  20  50  30
SRQ  85  78  88  78 /  60  40  50  40
BKV  84  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SPG  84  79  88  79 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280156 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
956 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FROM HERNANDO TO LEE COUNTIES CONTINUES...

.UPDATE...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED OTHER THAN A BAND RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA
TOWARDS THE LOW OFFSHORE AND SOME ACTIVITY AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HAVE TWEAKED POPS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PICK UP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD ONSHORE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR DURING
HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST
OF THE EVENING POTENTIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE HERNANDO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. PLENTY OF THE COUNTY IS SATURATED AND THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD CREATE A FLOOD CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY RIVER IN
MODERATE STAGE THIS EVENING. A FEW SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT...BUT
THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY FALLING. MORE RAIN IN COMING DAYS COULD
KEEP IT IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...THOUGH A DRIER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD HELP IT FALL TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...ON THE FLIP SIDE...COULD SEND THE RIVER INTO MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE.

THIS RIVER...ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHERS IN FLOOD OR
ACTION STAGE...SHOULD BE MONITORED BY THOSE HOLDING INTERESTS
ALONG THEM. THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COMING DAYS CREATING PLENTY OF HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  84  78  87 /  60  60  60  60
FMY  77  88  77  87 /  40  40  40  60
GIF  76  86  76  89 /  30  60  40  60
SRQ  78  85  78  86 /  60  60  60  60
BKV  76  85  75  88 /  50  60  60  60
SPG  78  84  78  87 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280156 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
956 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FROM HERNANDO TO LEE COUNTIES CONTINUES...

.UPDATE...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED OTHER THAN A BAND RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA
TOWARDS THE LOW OFFSHORE AND SOME ACTIVITY AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HAVE TWEAKED POPS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PICK UP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD ONSHORE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR DURING
HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST
OF THE EVENING POTENTIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE HERNANDO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. PLENTY OF THE COUNTY IS SATURATED AND THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD CREATE A FLOOD CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY RIVER IN
MODERATE STAGE THIS EVENING. A FEW SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT...BUT
THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY FALLING. MORE RAIN IN COMING DAYS COULD
KEEP IT IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...THOUGH A DRIER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD HELP IT FALL TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...ON THE FLIP SIDE...COULD SEND THE RIVER INTO MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE.

THIS RIVER...ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHERS IN FLOOD OR
ACTION STAGE...SHOULD BE MONITORED BY THOSE HOLDING INTERESTS
ALONG THEM. THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COMING DAYS CREATING PLENTY OF HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  84  78  87 /  60  60  60  60
FMY  77  88  77  87 /  40  40  40  60
GIF  76  86  76  89 /  30  60  40  60
SRQ  78  85  78  86 /  60  60  60  60
BKV  76  85  75  88 /  50  60  60  60
SPG  78  84  78  87 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...72/NOAH




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271913
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FROM TAMPA BAY DRIFTING NORTHWARD TO NORTH
FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WIND FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL BE
MOSTLY EAST UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH AND THE WINDS BECOME A MORE
CONSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF AS THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE LAND THIS EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE WAVES CAPABLE OF CREATING
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.


.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY) ...

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER-WISE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE PERSISTENT WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE SW FLOW AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 2-2.3 INCH RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS UP AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY FOR PWAT VALUES
IN LATE JULY.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TAKING WITH IT THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SHIFT THE THREAT FOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WHILE ALLOWING PORTIONS OF SW FLORIDA TO
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...PWAT VALUES
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
HOWEVER THEY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP
SCATTERED/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND...TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE
ALONG THE NATURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LCL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS... THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK... THE LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA... THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY AGGRAVATE
FLOODING AND MAY ALSO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  86  78  87 /  40  60  60  60
FMY  77  90  77  87 /  30  40  40  60
GIF  76  88  76  89 /  20  60  40  60
SRQ  78  87  78  86 /  50  60  60  60
BKV  76  88  75  88 /  50  60  60  60
SPG  78  87  78  87 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/TF/AM/RAG





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271913
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FROM TAMPA BAY DRIFTING NORTHWARD TO NORTH
FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WIND FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL BE
MOSTLY EAST UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH AND THE WINDS BECOME A MORE
CONSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF AS THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE LAND THIS EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE WAVES CAPABLE OF CREATING
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.


.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY) ...

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER-WISE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE PERSISTENT WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE SW FLOW AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 2-2.3 INCH RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS UP AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY FOR PWAT VALUES
IN LATE JULY.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TAKING WITH IT THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SHIFT THE THREAT FOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WHILE ALLOWING PORTIONS OF SW FLORIDA TO
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...PWAT VALUES
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
HOWEVER THEY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP
SCATTERED/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND...TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE
ALONG THE NATURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LCL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS... THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK... THE LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA... THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY AGGRAVATE
FLOODING AND MAY ALSO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  86  78  87 /  40  60  60  60
FMY  77  90  77  87 /  30  40  40  60
GIF  76  88  76  89 /  20  60  40  60
SRQ  78  87  78  86 /  50  60  60  60
BKV  76  88  75  88 /  50  60  60  60
SPG  78  87  78  87 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/TF/AM/RAG




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271323
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
920 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE AROUND FORT MYERS. AREAS FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH CONTINUE IN A FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.  2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MORINGS
SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE CAPE AND PW AT 2.25 WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 700 MB AND EAST TO NORTHEAST ABOVE. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE
OVER THE GULF WEST OF THE NATURE COAST IS CREATING AN EASTERLY FLOW
OVER AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY KEEPING SHOWERS OFFSHORE FOR NOW. BUT
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEAST THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE NATURE COAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATER WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE PERSISTENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CLEAR OVER THE LAND BUT PERSIST OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL GENERATE SEAS THAT WILL CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LCL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR
LESS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  78  88  78 /  80  40  80  40
FMY  88  77  91  77 /  80  20  40  30
GIF  89  76  89  75 /  70  20  60  30
SRQ  86  78  88  78 /  80  40  70  50
BKV  88  75  89  75 /  70  40  80  30
SPG  86  78  88  78 /  80  40  80  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270727
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. U/L TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE TAMPA BAY AREA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTH.  AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS GRADUALLY
NORTH TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
INLAND AND LIFT NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.  DUE TO THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.  2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE LAND THIS
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST.  THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
MAINLY BETWEEN BROOKSVILLE AND SARASOTA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH LOCALLY ONSHORE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT
APPEAR TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MODELS SHOW THE
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER 2 INCHES) FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AGAIN DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WHOLE SETUP WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR EXACERBATED FLOODING CONDITIONS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
REGION...SO LOWEST POPS WILL BE FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. LOWS EACH DAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LCL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY...A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS TO RISE
NEARLY 4 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE AND THE LITTLE MANATEE
RIVERS.  IT MAY ALSO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...WITH THE MOST AT RISK RIVERS THE ALAFIA AND CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  78  88  78 /  80  40  80  40
FMY  88  77  91  77 /  80  20  40  30
GIF  89  76  89  75 /  70  20  60  30
SRQ  86  78  88  78 /  80  40  70  50
BKV  88  75  89  75 /  70  40  80  30
SPG  86  78  88  78 /  80  40  80  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270727
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. U/L TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE TAMPA BAY AREA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTH.  AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS GRADUALLY
NORTH TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
INLAND AND LIFT NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.  DUE TO THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.  2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE LAND THIS
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST.  THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
MAINLY BETWEEN BROOKSVILLE AND SARASOTA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH LOCALLY ONSHORE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CREATE RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT
APPEAR TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MODELS SHOW THE
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER 2 INCHES) FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AGAIN DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WHOLE SETUP WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR EXACERBATED FLOODING CONDITIONS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
REGION...SO LOWEST POPS WILL BE FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. LOWS EACH DAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LCL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY...A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS TO RISE
NEARLY 4 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE AND THE LITTLE MANATEE
RIVERS.  IT MAY ALSO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...WITH THE MOST AT RISK RIVERS THE ALAFIA AND CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  78  88  78 /  80  40  80  40
FMY  88  77  91  77 /  80  20  40  30
GIF  89  76  89  75 /  70  20  60  30
SRQ  86  78  88  78 /  80  40  70  50
BKV  88  75  89  75 /  70  40  80  30
SPG  86  78  88  78 /  80  40  80  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE




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