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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280859
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM
BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES NEAR THE VERY BASE OF THIS
EXITING TROUGH WITH A GENERAL W/NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING ALONG WITH
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS. THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE REMAINS
INCREDIBLY DRY WITH A CALCULATED PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.25". THIS
READING IS SLIGHTLY UP FROM THE COLUMN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL NEAR
THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE DURING LATE NOVEMBER.
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION EXIST FROM TH SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP TO
THE TROP...AND IT IS LITTLE WONDER GIVEN THIS PROFILE THAT OUR SKIES
ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...1031MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS HIGH IS SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST AND WILL SLOWLY TURN OUR WINDS FROM THE CURRENT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OUR DISTANCE FROM THE
HIGH CENTER IS KEEPING OUR GRADIENT ENOUGH THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS HAVING DIFFICULTLY DECOUPLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE
RESULTING LIGHT BREEZE IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING FAST.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). THE SLOW
TEMPERATURE DROP AND ONLY LIGHT WINDS IS MAKING THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA A REALLY "BORDERLINE"
EVENT. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVENTUALLY SEE WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND 35
BRIEFLY TOWARD DAWN...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL BE DROPPING THE ADVISORY WITH
THE 4AM FORECAST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE BRIEFLY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT CHILLY OUT THERE UNTIL
THE SUN CAN RISE AND START WORKING ON THE ATMOSPHERE. SO... DRESS
APPROPRIATELY IF YOU ARE OUT THIS MORNING...PERHAPS WAITING OUTSIDE
YOUR FAVORITE STORE ON THIS FRIDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A QUIET PERIOD OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT ...
A PLEASANT...BUT COOL LATE NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH WHILE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY AS
IT PROGRESSES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CHILLY CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE MORNING WILL MODERATE UNDER NEAR 100% OF THE POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE TO THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST AND THEN RIDGES BACK W/SW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED MUCH...AND THE DRY COLUMN WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 30S FOR
THE NATURE COAST ZONES. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS FOR
THE ZONES NORTH OF TAMPA WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHELTERED AREAS TO DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES AT DECOUPLING AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...AND THESE AREAS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF PATCHY FROST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

SATURDAY...
UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW THE SIGNS OF RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF WHICH WILL EVOLVE AND AMPLIFY EASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STACKED RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY...AND
CURRENTLY FORECASTING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EQUATES TO UPPER 60S FAR NORTH...LOWER 70S THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND MIDDLE 70S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.

THE WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT MORE ON THAT PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY! STAY WARM IF YOU ARE OUT FOR AN EARLY MORNING
SHOPPING EXCURSION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
ALOFT - A BROAD LOW ACROSS NUNAVUT CANADA TROUGHED DOWN ACROSS THE
PRAIRIES OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX...AND A RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REACHED NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE - HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES SPILLED DOWN OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS...A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGED ACROSS GA/FL INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

THROUGH MON - THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH THE TROUGH OR FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD...ARCING ALONG A WESTERN
GULF COAST-NEW ENGLAND LINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD RE-ADJUSTS TO ALONG LATITUDE 30-35 NORTH BUT CONTINUES TO
RIDGE BACK WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

FOR TUE-THU - ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL LINE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE GULF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
FL AND MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS...LEAVING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS RIDGING BEGINS MOVING EAST FROM MEXICO. THE
MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT TRACKS
EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...REINFORCING/MERGING WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH/FRONT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND DISSIPATES.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY FOLLOWED EVENTUALLY BY ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE PASSES BY. IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT WITH ENOUGH ENERGY
THAT COMBINES WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST TO
RESULT IN SOME LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOL SUN MORNING THEN WARM WITH READINGS RUNNING JUST ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. THE POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ARE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. ONCE THE ADVISORY
IS DONE LATER TODAY...CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
EASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER...DURATIONS OF SUB 35 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT...AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
AND WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AND HENCE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST FOR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  46  72  56 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  66  49  75  58 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  62  45  71  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  63  46  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  37  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  61  50  71  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 280859
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM
BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES NEAR THE VERY BASE OF THIS
EXITING TROUGH WITH A GENERAL W/NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING ALONG WITH
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS. THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE REMAINS
INCREDIBLY DRY WITH A CALCULATED PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.25". THIS
READING IS SLIGHTLY UP FROM THE COLUMN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL NEAR
THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE DURING LATE NOVEMBER.
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION EXIST FROM TH SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP TO
THE TROP...AND IT IS LITTLE WONDER GIVEN THIS PROFILE THAT OUR SKIES
ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...1031MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS HIGH IS SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST AND WILL SLOWLY TURN OUR WINDS FROM THE CURRENT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OUR DISTANCE FROM THE
HIGH CENTER IS KEEPING OUR GRADIENT ENOUGH THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS HAVING DIFFICULTLY DECOUPLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE
RESULTING LIGHT BREEZE IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING FAST.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). THE SLOW
TEMPERATURE DROP AND ONLY LIGHT WINDS IS MAKING THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA A REALLY "BORDERLINE"
EVENT. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVENTUALLY SEE WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND 35
BRIEFLY TOWARD DAWN...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL BE DROPPING THE ADVISORY WITH
THE 4AM FORECAST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE BRIEFLY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT CHILLY OUT THERE UNTIL
THE SUN CAN RISE AND START WORKING ON THE ATMOSPHERE. SO... DRESS
APPROPRIATELY IF YOU ARE OUT THIS MORNING...PERHAPS WAITING OUTSIDE
YOUR FAVORITE STORE ON THIS FRIDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A QUIET PERIOD OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT ...
A PLEASANT...BUT COOL LATE NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH WHILE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY AS
IT PROGRESSES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CHILLY CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE MORNING WILL MODERATE UNDER NEAR 100% OF THE POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE TO THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST AND THEN RIDGES BACK W/SW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED MUCH...AND THE DRY COLUMN WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 30S FOR
THE NATURE COAST ZONES. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS FOR
THE ZONES NORTH OF TAMPA WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHELTERED AREAS TO DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES AT DECOUPLING AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...AND THESE AREAS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF PATCHY FROST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

SATURDAY...
UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW THE SIGNS OF RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF WHICH WILL EVOLVE AND AMPLIFY EASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STACKED RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY...AND
CURRENTLY FORECASTING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EQUATES TO UPPER 60S FAR NORTH...LOWER 70S THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND MIDDLE 70S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.

THE WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT MORE ON THAT PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY! STAY WARM IF YOU ARE OUT FOR AN EARLY MORNING
SHOPPING EXCURSION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
ALOFT - A BROAD LOW ACROSS NUNAVUT CANADA TROUGHED DOWN ACROSS THE
PRAIRIES OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX...AND A RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REACHED NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE - HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES SPILLED DOWN OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS...A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGED ACROSS GA/FL INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

THROUGH MON - THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH THE TROUGH OR FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD...ARCING ALONG A WESTERN
GULF COAST-NEW ENGLAND LINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD RE-ADJUSTS TO ALONG LATITUDE 30-35 NORTH BUT CONTINUES TO
RIDGE BACK WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

FOR TUE-THU - ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL LINE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE GULF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
FL AND MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS...LEAVING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS RIDGING BEGINS MOVING EAST FROM MEXICO. THE
MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT TRACKS
EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...REINFORCING/MERGING WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH/FRONT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND DISSIPATES.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY FOLLOWED EVENTUALLY BY ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE PASSES BY. IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT WITH ENOUGH ENERGY
THAT COMBINES WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST TO
RESULT IN SOME LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOL SUN MORNING THEN WARM WITH READINGS RUNNING JUST ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. THE POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ARE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. ONCE THE ADVISORY
IS DONE LATER TODAY...CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
EASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER...DURATIONS OF SUB 35 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORT...AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
AND WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AND HENCE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST FOR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  46  72  56 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  66  49  75  58 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  62  45  71  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  63  46  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  37  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  61  50  71  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 280247
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STILL A WAYS AWAY FROM
THE REGION...MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND SO
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH OR HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR PASCO COUNTY SOUTHWARD BUT NOT INCLUDING COASTAL
AREAS OR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR
ANY FREEZE WARNINGS SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS WITH NONE IN
PLACE. THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR NORTHERN AREAS. FROST IS A BIT BORDERLINE GIVEN
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST SO HAVE LEFT THAT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AS DISCUSSED IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE SECONDARY FRONT EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND LIGHTEN A BIT EACH
DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  61  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  44  67  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  40  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  43  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  60  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  48  60  51  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH







000
FXUS62 KTBW 280247
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STILL A WAYS AWAY FROM
THE REGION...MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND SO
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH OR HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR PASCO COUNTY SOUTHWARD BUT NOT INCLUDING COASTAL
AREAS OR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR
ANY FREEZE WARNINGS SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS WITH NONE IN
PLACE. THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR NORTHERN AREAS. FROST IS A BIT BORDERLINE GIVEN
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST SO HAVE LEFT THAT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AS DISCUSSED IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE SECONDARY FRONT EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND LIGHTEN A BIT EACH
DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  61  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  44  67  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  40  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  43  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  60  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  48  60  51  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH






000
FXUS62 KTBW 272027
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF SCATTERED CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR HINTING AT THE LOCATION OF THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. DESPITE MILD TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...WIND CHILLS READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL (AROUND 10 MPH)...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR
PASCO COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH INLAND SARASOTA/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN LOWER OVER THE NATURE
COAST...HOWEVER ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MORE STRICT THERE.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY - THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND HAS
EXITED THE REGION JUST SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED...AND NOW WILL INCLUDE
TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND BECOME NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND LIGHTEN A BIT
EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID
30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...LOW ERC VALUES WILL PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  61  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  44  67  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  40  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  43  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  60  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  48  61  52  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...09/RUDE AND 69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS NOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PASSING OUR
LONGITUDE PUSHING THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER TO OUR
EAST WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THIS
IMPULSE WILL PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
AND FL PENINSULA TODAY.

WE SAW AN INCREDIBLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.8"...TO THE
27/00Z SOUNDING WHERE THE PW VALUE HAD DROPPED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
0.17". HUGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 40C WERE SAMPLED FROM
ALMOST THE SURFACE UP TO NEARLY 300MB. THIS 0.17" PW VALUE IS NEAR
(WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AN ALL TIME LOW FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. IN FACT...IT IS A RARE OCCASION THAT WE SEE PW VALUES
LOWER THAN THIS AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF
THIS EARLY AM ARE SOME VERY THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
DISCUSSION WAS PASSING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON ITS WAY TOWARD
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVER
THESE COOLER NATURE COAST ZONES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE COMING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAKES A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. THOSE WITH PLANS NEAR THE BEACH
SHOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HOISTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE BEACHES OF PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPING GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.

TONIGHT...
A CHILLY NIGHT SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND AT LEAST SOME WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FOR EVEN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
TONIGHT...BUT RATHER WILL BE LOOKING AT AN ADVECTION/DRAINAGE EVENT
FROM THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MOS IS BIASED TOO COLD FOR
ADVECTION NIGHT...AND KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MOS ENSEMBLES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 32 OVER INLAND LEVY COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS UNDER
NORTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE SANIBEL REGION WILL
STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. IF THINGS WORK OUT THIS WAY THEN
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...HOWEVER IT IS A CLOSE CALL
UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EVEN BORDERLINE FOR FROST WITH A LIGHT WIND
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 DEGREES LATE AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MORE SHELTERED AREA COULD STILL REALIZE A TOUCH OF FROST TOWARD
DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST.

FRIDAY..
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FURTHER FLATTEN OUT OVERHEAD. FRIDAY
IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND 60 FOR CHIEFLAND...LOWER 60S
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A BIT LESS WIND
TO HELP THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FEEL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUAL
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ALL BELOW 27 WHICH WILL KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED BOTH DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  42  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  62  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS NOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PASSING OUR
LONGITUDE PUSHING THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER TO OUR
EAST WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THIS
IMPULSE WILL PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
AND FL PENINSULA TODAY.

WE SAW AN INCREDIBLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.8"...TO THE
27/00Z SOUNDING WHERE THE PW VALUE HAD DROPPED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
0.17". HUGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 40C WERE SAMPLED FROM
ALMOST THE SURFACE UP TO NEARLY 300MB. THIS 0.17" PW VALUE IS NEAR
(WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AN ALL TIME LOW FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. IN FACT...IT IS A RARE OCCASION THAT WE SEE PW VALUES
LOWER THAN THIS AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF
THIS EARLY AM ARE SOME VERY THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
DISCUSSION WAS PASSING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON ITS WAY TOWARD
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVER
THESE COOLER NATURE COAST ZONES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE COMING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAKES A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. THOSE WITH PLANS NEAR THE BEACH
SHOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HOISTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE BEACHES OF PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPING GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.

TONIGHT...
A CHILLY NIGHT SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND AT LEAST SOME WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FOR EVEN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
TONIGHT...BUT RATHER WILL BE LOOKING AT AN ADVECTION/DRAINAGE EVENT
FROM THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MOS IS BIASED TOO COLD FOR
ADVECTION NIGHT...AND KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MOS ENSEMBLES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 32 OVER INLAND LEVY COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS UNDER
NORTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE SANIBEL REGION WILL
STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. IF THINGS WORK OUT THIS WAY THEN
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...HOWEVER IT IS A CLOSE CALL
UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EVEN BORDERLINE FOR FROST WITH A LIGHT WIND
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 DEGREES LATE AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MORE SHELTERED AREA COULD STILL REALIZE A TOUCH OF FROST TOWARD
DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST.

FRIDAY..
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FURTHER FLATTEN OUT OVERHEAD. FRIDAY
IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND 60 FOR CHIEFLAND...LOWER 60S
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A BIT LESS WIND
TO HELP THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FEEL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUAL
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ALL BELOW 27 WHICH WILL KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED BOTH DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  42  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  62  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270237
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ONLY JUST A FEW
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREA-
WIDE EXCEPT IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE WATER. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR A REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RECENT COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND BUILDING
SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. ON THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHTEN AGAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  35  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270237
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ONLY JUST A FEW
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREA-
WIDE EXCEPT IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE WATER. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR A REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RECENT COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND BUILDING
SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. ON THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHTEN AGAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  35  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 262003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT NOW EXITING TO THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH
EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

ON THURSDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT WITH JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR ON
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
ITS PASSAGE. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
RUN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS OF THE YEAR DUE
TO THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIFT OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS
WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A FINAL NIGHT OF ADVECTION COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL STILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
IN NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EASE
UP...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE MODERATE...STARTING
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE 70S AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO A POSITION RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...MAKING FOR PLEASANT WEATHER
TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CEILING OVER KFMY AND KRSW TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER 02Z...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE AFTER 16Z ON THURSDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN PLACE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD AND WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONTINUING SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH 03Z. ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND INCREASE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AGAIN
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER
THE OUTER GULF WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
LIGHTEN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL SURF HEIGHT ALONG AREA BEACHES
HAS FALLEN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA...SO HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS SUMTER...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LOW ERC VALUES AND WINDS BELOW 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. INCREASING 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS
VEERING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  50  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING









000
FXUS62 KTBW 262003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT NOW EXITING TO THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH
EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

ON THURSDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT WITH JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR ON
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
ITS PASSAGE. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
RUN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS OF THE YEAR DUE
TO THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIFT OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS
WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A FINAL NIGHT OF ADVECTION COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL STILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
IN NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EASE
UP...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE MODERATE...STARTING
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE 70S AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO A POSITION RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...MAKING FOR PLEASANT WEATHER
TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CEILING OVER KFMY AND KRSW TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER 02Z...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE AFTER 16Z ON THURSDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN PLACE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD AND WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONTINUING SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH 03Z. ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND INCREASE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AGAIN
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER
THE OUTER GULF WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
LIGHTEN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL SURF HEIGHT ALONG AREA BEACHES
HAS FALLEN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA...SO HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS SUMTER...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LOW ERC VALUES AND WINDS BELOW 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. INCREASING 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS
VEERING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  50  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 261500
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN NOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO GRADUALLY END WITH CONSIDERABLE
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE MOVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
TO MID 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RAIN
ENDING AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON...AND WILL UPDATE THE ZONES THEN TO
REFRESH HEADLINES WITHIN THE ZONES...WITH NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -RA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY RETURNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 12 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AOB
10 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. THIS HIGHER
SURF WELL OFFSHORE TRANSLATES TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AS WELL AS HIGH SURF ON THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS BELOW 20 KTS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE
OBSERVED.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 261500
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN NOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO GRADUALLY END WITH CONSIDERABLE
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE MOVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
TO MID 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RAIN
ENDING AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON...AND WILL UPDATE THE ZONES THEN TO
REFRESH HEADLINES WITHIN THE ZONES...WITH NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -RA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY RETURNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 12 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AOB
10 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. THIS HIGHER
SURF WELL OFFSHORE TRANSLATES TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AS WELL AS HIGH SURF ON THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS BELOW 20 KTS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE
OBSERVED.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 260805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THANKSGIVING DAY)...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH
AND MANATEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT SMARTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE AND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL. ONE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR TO
COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF THE RAIN. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERCAST SKIES WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CREATING LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...AND STEADY RAINS WILL BE MOVING ALL THE
WAY BACK INTO LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY BRINGING
AN END TO OUR RAINS. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY...AND WE
COULD SEE SOME HIGH SURF BEFORE THE WAVE ENERGY TURNS MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND BYPASSES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE COULD SEE
SOME MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUITE NICE IF NOT JUST A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY/THUR
EVENING WILL NOW BE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONE FINAL SURGE OF CAA
ARRIVING ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON
THE CHILLY SIDE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...AND EVEN COLDER 30S TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. CURRENT FORECAST ALLOWS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY TO
APPROACH FREEZING...BUT THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT WINDS STILL
IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP FROST MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE DOWN INTO THE
30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-4 AROUND
SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS CAA SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS
LATE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE DEVELOPING
MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RIDGED IN NATURE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SE
CONUS COAST. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER WITH VERY LOW
LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
LIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT
TIMING OF WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT IS LOW. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR COAST WITH WINDS RAPIDLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN FACT...BUOY 42036 HAS SEEN WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 39 KNOTS...AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN OUR
WATERS TODAY.

WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGS HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG 30 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR WINDS BACK AROUND
TO THE EAST AT MORE FAVORABLE SPEEDS FOR BOATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  48  68  44 /  60   0   0   0
FMY  69  48  72  47 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  67  45  68  42 /  80   0   0   0
SRQ  65  46  70  46 /  60   0   0   0
BKV  60  36  67  36 /  70   0   0   0
SPG  62  54  67  50 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 260805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THANKSGIVING DAY)...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH
AND MANATEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT SMARTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE AND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL. ONE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR TO
COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF THE RAIN. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERCAST SKIES WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CREATING LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...AND STEADY RAINS WILL BE MOVING ALL THE
WAY BACK INTO LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY BRINGING
AN END TO OUR RAINS. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY...AND WE
COULD SEE SOME HIGH SURF BEFORE THE WAVE ENERGY TURNS MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND BYPASSES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE COULD SEE
SOME MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUITE NICE IF NOT JUST A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY/THUR
EVENING WILL NOW BE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONE FINAL SURGE OF CAA
ARRIVING ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON
THE CHILLY SIDE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...AND EVEN COLDER 30S TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. CURRENT FORECAST ALLOWS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY TO
APPROACH FREEZING...BUT THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT WINDS STILL
IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP FROST MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE DOWN INTO THE
30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-4 AROUND
SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS CAA SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS
LATE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE DEVELOPING
MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RIDGED IN NATURE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SE
CONUS COAST. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER WITH VERY LOW
LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
LIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT
TIMING OF WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT IS LOW. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR COAST WITH WINDS RAPIDLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN FACT...BUOY 42036 HAS SEEN WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 39 KNOTS...AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN OUR
WATERS TODAY.

WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGS HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG 30 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR WINDS BACK AROUND
TO THE EAST AT MORE FAVORABLE SPEEDS FOR BOATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  48  68  44 /  60   0   0   0
FMY  69  48  72  47 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  67  45  68  42 /  80   0   0   0
SRQ  65  46  70  46 /  60   0   0   0
BKV  60  36  67  36 /  70   0   0   0
SPG  62  54  67  50 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 260242
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A NICE CLEARING LINE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT THIS EVENING...BUT MORE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST
THAT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT THIS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT LIKELY OR GREATER POPS IN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN POPS...THOUGH THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND CAUSING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENT RISKS AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINS...THOUGH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY STARTING AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
THE SW AROUND TO THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
00Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING OVER
THE AREA FED BY A DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS
MARINE FOG HAS BEEN WELL MIXED WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO BE
1-3 DEGREES ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  BUOY036
REPORTED NORTH WIND AT 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS WITH 5.6 FOOT
WAVES AND INCREASING IN HEIGHT OVER THE PAST HOUR.  CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE/OGLESBY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 260242
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A NICE CLEARING LINE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT THIS EVENING...BUT MORE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST
THAT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT THIS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT LIKELY OR GREATER POPS IN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN POPS...THOUGH THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND CAUSING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENT RISKS AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINS...THOUGH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY STARTING AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
THE SW AROUND TO THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
00Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING OVER
THE AREA FED BY A DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS
MARINE FOG HAS BEEN WELL MIXED WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO BE
1-3 DEGREES ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  BUOY036
REPORTED NORTH WIND AT 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS WITH 5.6 FOOT
WAVES AND INCREASING IN HEIGHT OVER THE PAST HOUR.  CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 252004
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LOW THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TONIGHT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYERED EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS...SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION. GIVEN THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL MAINTAIN A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CHARLOTTE AND
LEE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OFF ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL END IN MOST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ONLY TO RISE SOME 5 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EARLY
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH WITH THE WIND
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS FRONT IS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH CENTER CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF PLEASANT COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE
MORE IN SCEC RANGE THU AND FRI ALTHOUGH MAY APPROACH SCA WITH
SECONDARY SURGE BRIEFLY. TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING FRI
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS MID 30S IN THE NATURE COAST
AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF ATTM. HIGH CENTER WILL ELONGATE FM THE
FL/GA BORDER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE MODERATION TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN THOUGH WHICH
MEANS CONTINUE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND RAIN CHANCE IS AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TRIGGER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
WINDS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS...WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS
THE TAMPA BAY WATERS UNTIL 10 PM EST TONIGHT. THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP TO CREATE HIGH SURF AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL
HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FROM PINELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH SOUTH FROM 13-21Z ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THOUGH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. IN ADDITION THE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP ERC VALUES LOW
SO NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  64  48  68 /  90  70   0   0
FMY  64  68  48  73 /  80  60   0   0
GIF  57  65  47  68 /  90  90   0   0
SRQ  61  66  47  70 /  90  70   0   0
BKV  55  63  36  68 /  90  60   0   0
SPG  60  65  54  68 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER








000
FXUS62 KTBW 252004
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LOW THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TONIGHT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYERED EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS...SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION. GIVEN THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL MAINTAIN A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CHARLOTTE AND
LEE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OFF ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL END IN MOST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ONLY TO RISE SOME 5 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EARLY
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH WITH THE WIND
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS FRONT IS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH CENTER CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF PLEASANT COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE
MORE IN SCEC RANGE THU AND FRI ALTHOUGH MAY APPROACH SCA WITH
SECONDARY SURGE BRIEFLY. TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING FRI
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS MID 30S IN THE NATURE COAST
AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF ATTM. HIGH CENTER WILL ELONGATE FM THE
FL/GA BORDER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE MODERATION TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN THOUGH WHICH
MEANS CONTINUE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND RAIN CHANCE IS AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TRIGGER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
WINDS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS...WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS
THE TAMPA BAY WATERS UNTIL 10 PM EST TONIGHT. THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP TO CREATE HIGH SURF AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL
HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FROM PINELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH SOUTH FROM 13-21Z ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THOUGH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. IN ADDITION THE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP ERC VALUES LOW
SO NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  64  48  68 /  90  70   0   0
FMY  64  68  48  73 /  80  60   0   0
GIF  57  65  47  68 /  90  90   0   0
SRQ  61  66  47  70 /  90  70   0   0
BKV  55  63  36  68 /  90  60   0   0
SPG  60  65  54  68 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER









000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251453
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251453
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER







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