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000
FXUS62 KTBW 171902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH THEN
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
TROUGH SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT DRIER AIR (NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH MODELS
SHOWING PW`S VALUES DECREASING INTO THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN
THE MORNING DISCUSSION THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THIS WILL SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING FAR SOUTH.
DURING THE DAY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) SETTING
UP OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MID
70S ELSEWHERE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND AROUND 90 INLAND.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING STILL
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE AND
MORE AS THOUGH FRIDAY MAY BE A SHOWERY INCLEMENT DAY FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE COMING INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT AS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW THAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING A BROAD PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THIS SCENARIO
FROM A DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PERSPECTIVE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
SWATH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS AHEAD OF THIS
ENERGY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY ALONG THE HEIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PUTS THE
FL PENINSULA UNDER A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN ITS ENTRANCE
REGION. THESE FACTORS SEEM LIKE PRETTY DECENT SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS
FOR LIFT...ESPECIALLY WHEN SUPERIMPOSED ON THE STILL VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. KIND OF SURPRISED THAT WE ARE NOT
SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE OVER THE FAR
NE GULF/NATURE COAST ZONES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS TO
BE PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FURTHER SOUTH...THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH KICKING OFF THERE
CONVECTIVE SCHEMES.

SO WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER FORECAST IS HIGHER
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FOR RAIN CHANCES...AM GOING ABOVE WHAT SEVERAL OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. THINKING PERHAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH IS TRIGGERING THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THESE MODELS ENOUGH AS
TO UNREALISTICALLY SUPPRESSING THE POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL GO LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. JUST CAN NOT SEE WHY THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND LIKELY
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.

PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE
THAN THEY WERE WITH THE TUESDAY 12Z RUNS. THE GFS/GEM/AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING
OFF TO THE EAST OF GA/CAROLINA COAST AND THEN PIVOTING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME...LEAVING ONLY A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND OVER THE
PENINSULA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT THIS CLOSED FEATURE
EVOLVES OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND THEN TAKES ITS TIME LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING THIS PHILOSOPHY...
THE EJECTION OF THE ENERGY IS A BIT FASTER THAN WITH THE 12Z
RUN...AND PERHAPS THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A TREND TOWARD THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS CONSENSUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

NEITHER WEEKEND DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY COULD
STILL BE ON THE SHOWERY/ MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE UNDER THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW. WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR RAIN
SOUTH...AND BELOW CLIMO NORTH. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE NON
EVENTFUL AND NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS FOR LATER SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING AND BRIEF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z...AND THROUGH 00Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS AS AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE RA/TSRA
VFR IS EXPECTED. PREVAILING VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER
01Z TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AOB 5 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SOME BR COULD
DEVELOP AT KLAL AND KPGD TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  86 /  20  20  20  60
FMY  74  89  74  87 /  50  40  40  60
GIF  73  91  74  88 /  20  30  20  60
SRQ  74  89  75  86 /  30  20  30  60
BKV  68  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  60
SPG  77  89  77  86 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING









000
FXUS62 KTBW 171902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH THEN
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
TROUGH SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT DRIER AIR (NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH MODELS
SHOWING PW`S VALUES DECREASING INTO THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN
THE MORNING DISCUSSION THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THIS WILL SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING FAR SOUTH.
DURING THE DAY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) SETTING
UP OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MID
70S ELSEWHERE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND AROUND 90 INLAND.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING STILL
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE AND
MORE AS THOUGH FRIDAY MAY BE A SHOWERY INCLEMENT DAY FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE COMING INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT AS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW THAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING A BROAD PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THIS SCENARIO
FROM A DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PERSPECTIVE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
SWATH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS AHEAD OF THIS
ENERGY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY ALONG THE HEIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PUTS THE
FL PENINSULA UNDER A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN ITS ENTRANCE
REGION. THESE FACTORS SEEM LIKE PRETTY DECENT SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS
FOR LIFT...ESPECIALLY WHEN SUPERIMPOSED ON THE STILL VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. KIND OF SURPRISED THAT WE ARE NOT
SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE OVER THE FAR
NE GULF/NATURE COAST ZONES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS TO
BE PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FURTHER SOUTH...THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH KICKING OFF THERE
CONVECTIVE SCHEMES.

SO WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER FORECAST IS HIGHER
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FOR RAIN CHANCES...AM GOING ABOVE WHAT SEVERAL OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. THINKING PERHAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH IS TRIGGERING THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THESE MODELS ENOUGH AS
TO UNREALISTICALLY SUPPRESSING THE POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL GO LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. JUST CAN NOT SEE WHY THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND LIKELY
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.

PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE
THAN THEY WERE WITH THE TUESDAY 12Z RUNS. THE GFS/GEM/AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING
OFF TO THE EAST OF GA/CAROLINA COAST AND THEN PIVOTING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME...LEAVING ONLY A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND OVER THE
PENINSULA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT THIS CLOSED FEATURE
EVOLVES OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND THEN TAKES ITS TIME LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING THIS PHILOSOPHY...
THE EJECTION OF THE ENERGY IS A BIT FASTER THAN WITH THE 12Z
RUN...AND PERHAPS THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A TREND TOWARD THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS CONSENSUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

NEITHER WEEKEND DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY COULD
STILL BE ON THE SHOWERY/ MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE UNDER THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW. WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR RAIN
SOUTH...AND BELOW CLIMO NORTH. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE NON
EVENTFUL AND NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS FOR LATER SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING AND BRIEF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z...AND THROUGH 00Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS AS AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE RA/TSRA
VFR IS EXPECTED. PREVAILING VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER
01Z TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AOB 5 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SOME BR COULD
DEVELOP AT KLAL AND KPGD TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  86 /  20  20  20  60
FMY  74  89  74  87 /  50  40  40  60
GIF  73  91  74  88 /  20  30  20  60
SRQ  74  89  75  86 /  30  20  30  60
BKV  68  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  60
SPG  77  89  77  86 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 171342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S 2+ INCHES VIA 12Z RAOB
DATA) IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY EXPECT THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND RAIN AREAS TO CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
THE EXITING SHORT WAVE FEATURE WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN IN THE WAKE OF THE THESE FEATURES. WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS
WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A
FEW DEGREES IN THE GRIDS...BUT OVERALL CHANGES DOES NOT WARRANT A
ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PREVAILING AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS DEPICTED AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA NOW EXIST...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCLUDE BRIEF TEMPO AT THE SOUTHWESTERN TERMINAL SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION VFR IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE 6 TO 8
KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATED OFF THE PINELLAS
AND PASCO COUNTIES COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
ENGLEWOOD AT THE MOMENT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY TIME
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
BEACH CAMS SHOW CHOPPY SURF AND WHITECAPS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 171342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S 2+ INCHES VIA 12Z RAOB
DATA) IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY EXPECT THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND RAIN AREAS TO CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
THE EXITING SHORT WAVE FEATURE WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN IN THE WAKE OF THE THESE FEATURES. WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS
WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A
FEW DEGREES IN THE GRIDS...BUT OVERALL CHANGES DOES NOT WARRANT A
ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PREVAILING AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS DEPICTED AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA NOW EXIST...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCLUDE BRIEF TEMPO AT THE SOUTHWESTERN TERMINAL SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION VFR IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE 6 TO 8
KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATED OFF THE PINELLAS
AND PASCO COUNTIES COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
ENGLEWOOD AT THE MOMENT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY TIME
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
BEACH CAMS SHOW CHOPPY SURF AND WHITECAPS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 170724
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AREAS TO LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS FL TO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS IT/S NORTHERN END OUT OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH SHIFTING TO ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE RESULT THE LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEPENS SOME AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH...ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY THEN INTO
SOUTHERN FL TONIGHT WHERE IT LINGERS AND WEAKENS THU.

MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 2.0 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TODAY
THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OCCUR. DURING THU SOME SLIGHT DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
THE NORTH HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING STILL
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE
AS THOUGH FRIDAY MAY BE A SHOWERY / INCLEMENT DAY FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE COMING INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT AS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW THAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING A BROAD PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THIS SCENARIO FROM A
DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PERSPECTIVE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SWATH OF DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENERGY ALONG THE HEIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PUTS THE FL PENINSULA UNDER A
FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN ITS ENTRANCE REGION. THESE FACTORS SEEM
LIKE PRETTY DECENT SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS FOR LIFT...ESPECIALLY WHEN
SUPERIMPOSED ON THE STILL VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
KIND OF SURPRISED THAT WE ARE NOT SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE OVER THE FAR NE GULF/NATURE COAST ZONES. THE
GFS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. FURTHER SOUTH...THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH KICKING OFF THERE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES.

SO WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER FORECAST IS HIGHER
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FOR RAIN CHANCES...AM GOING ABOVE WHAT SEVERAL OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. THINKING PERHAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH IS TRIGGERING THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THESE MODELS ENOUGH AS
TO UNREALISTICALLY SUPPRESSING THE POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL GO LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. JUST CAN NOT SEE WHY THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND LIKELY
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.

PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE
THAN THEY WERE WITH THE TUESDAY 12Z RUNS. THE GFS/GEM/AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING
OFF TO THE EAST OF GA/CAROLINA COAST AND THEN PIVOTING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME...LEAVING ONLY A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND OVER THE
PENINSULA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT THIS CLOSED FEATURE
EVOLVES OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND THEN TAKES ITS TIME LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING THIS PHILOSOPHY...
THE EJECTION OF THE ENERGY IS A BIT FASTER THAN WITH THE 12Z
RUN...AND PERHAPS THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A TREND TOWARD THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS CONSENSUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

NEITHER WEEKEND DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY COULD
STILL BE ON THE SHOWERY/ MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE UNDER THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW. WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR RAIN
SOUTH...AND BELOW CLIMO NORTH. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE NON
EVENTFUL AND NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS FOR LATER SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/06Z-18/06Z. BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
WITH VCNTY SHRA AND TSRA. MVFR CIGS BEGIN SPREADING SOUTH AFT 15Z
ALONG WITH HIGHER ODDS OF LCL IFR CONDITIONS...BUT TIMING ISSUES
PRECLUDE INCLUDING TEMPOS WITH THESE TAFS. WINDS LIGHT AND MOSTLY
WESTERLY...BECOMING SW AND WEST DURING THE DAY AT 7-10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WINDS AS THESE TWO FEATURES MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTH FL TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS
THERE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES
EAST...WITH WINDS TURNING TO EASTERLY. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE 15
KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE MAIN MARINE CONCERNS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  91  76 /  70  20  20  20
FMY  90  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  40
GIF  87  72  91  74 /  70  20  30  20
SRQ  87  74  89  75 /  60  40  30  30
BKV  89  68  93  71 /  70  20  20  20
SPG  86  77  90  77 /  70  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA










000
FXUS62 KTBW 170724
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AREAS TO LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS FL TO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS IT/S NORTHERN END OUT OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH SHIFTING TO ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE RESULT THE LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEPENS SOME AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH...ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY THEN INTO
SOUTHERN FL TONIGHT WHERE IT LINGERS AND WEAKENS THU.

MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 2.0 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TODAY
THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OCCUR. DURING THU SOME SLIGHT DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
THE NORTH HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING STILL
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...EXTENDING DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE
AS THOUGH FRIDAY MAY BE A SHOWERY / INCLEMENT DAY FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE COMING INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT AS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW THAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING A BROAD PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THIS SCENARIO FROM A
DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PERSPECTIVE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SWATH OF DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENERGY ALONG THE HEIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PUTS THE FL PENINSULA UNDER A
FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN ITS ENTRANCE REGION. THESE FACTORS SEEM
LIKE PRETTY DECENT SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS FOR LIFT...ESPECIALLY WHEN
SUPERIMPOSED ON THE STILL VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
KIND OF SURPRISED THAT WE ARE NOT SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE OVER THE FAR NE GULF/NATURE COAST ZONES. THE
GFS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. FURTHER SOUTH...THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH KICKING OFF THERE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES.

SO WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER FORECAST IS HIGHER
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FOR RAIN CHANCES...AM GOING ABOVE WHAT SEVERAL OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. THINKING PERHAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH IS TRIGGERING THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THESE MODELS ENOUGH AS
TO UNREALISTICALLY SUPPRESSING THE POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL GO LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. JUST CAN NOT SEE WHY THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND LIKELY
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.

PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE
THAN THEY WERE WITH THE TUESDAY 12Z RUNS. THE GFS/GEM/AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING
OFF TO THE EAST OF GA/CAROLINA COAST AND THEN PIVOTING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME...LEAVING ONLY A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND OVER THE
PENINSULA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT THIS CLOSED FEATURE
EVOLVES OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND THEN TAKES ITS TIME LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING THIS PHILOSOPHY...
THE EJECTION OF THE ENERGY IS A BIT FASTER THAN WITH THE 12Z
RUN...AND PERHAPS THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A TREND TOWARD THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS CONSENSUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

NEITHER WEEKEND DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY COULD
STILL BE ON THE SHOWERY/ MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE UNDER THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW. WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR RAIN
SOUTH...AND BELOW CLIMO NORTH. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE NON
EVENTFUL AND NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS FOR LATER SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/06Z-18/06Z. BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
WITH VCNTY SHRA AND TSRA. MVFR CIGS BEGIN SPREADING SOUTH AFT 15Z
ALONG WITH HIGHER ODDS OF LCL IFR CONDITIONS...BUT TIMING ISSUES
PRECLUDE INCLUDING TEMPOS WITH THESE TAFS. WINDS LIGHT AND MOSTLY
WESTERLY...BECOMING SW AND WEST DURING THE DAY AT 7-10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WINDS AS THESE TWO FEATURES MOVE SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTH FL TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS
THERE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES
EAST...WITH WINDS TURNING TO EASTERLY. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE 15
KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE MAIN MARINE CONCERNS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  91  76 /  70  20  20  20
FMY  90  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  40
GIF  87  72  91  74 /  70  20  30  20
SRQ  87  74  89  75 /  60  40  30  30
BKV  89  68  93  71 /  70  20  20  20
SPG  86  77  90  77 /  70  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA









000
FXUS62 KTBW 170112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA HAS DROPPED A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REMAINED
MUCH DRIER WITH SOME AREAS NOT SEEING ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA
BAY REGION. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL PULL THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LACK OF  SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS HAVE REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
VCTS REPORTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR
NOW. BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED TO ANY AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
WEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY. A MORE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP ON THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  90 /  60  60  20  20
FMY  75  88  73  90 /  30  60  40  40
GIF  73  87  72  90 /  50  50  20  30
SRQ  75  86  76  90 /  50  60  30  20
BKV  71  89  68  90 /  60  60  20  20
SPG  77  87  77  89 /  60  60  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 170112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA HAS DROPPED A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REMAINED
MUCH DRIER WITH SOME AREAS NOT SEEING ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA
BAY REGION. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL PULL THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LACK OF  SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS HAVE REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
VCTS REPORTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR
NOW. BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED TO ANY AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
WEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY. A MORE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP ON THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  90 /  60  60  20  20
FMY  75  88  73  90 /  30  60  40  40
GIF  73  87  72  90 /  50  50  20  30
SRQ  75  86  76  90 /  50  60  30  20
BKV  71  89  68  90 /  60  60  20  20
SPG  77  87  77  89 /  60  60  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 161827
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA WILL HELP TO INDUCE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
IT WILL DRAG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE INTER- MOUNTAIN
WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES AND WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THE EASTERN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STUBBORN AND KEEP AT LEAST SOME PIECE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS IS MORE
ORGANIZED AND STRUCTURED WITH ITS ENERGY BEGIN A DEFINED PART OF
LEFTOVER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE FRACTURED...OR ENERGY LEFT BEHIND FROM THE THEN
DEPARTED TROUGH.

EITHER WAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE A MESSY PATTERN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER
ITSELF WILL BE OVERLY INCLEMENT...BUT RATHER THAT FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...AND THEREFORE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE (ESPECIALLY BEYOND FRIDAY).

FOR THURSDAY...THE FL PENINSULA IS FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AGAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGE ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

WITHOUT A DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CLEAR OUT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND WILL LEFTOVER ENERGY ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE PATTERN...AND DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEMSELVES AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITHOUT ANY ABNORMAL HEIGHTS...OR CLOUDY/WASHOUT
DAYS EXPECTED...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR NOW KEEP SHOWER CHANCES CONSERVATIVE.
HOPEFULLY A MORE DEFINED PATTERN BETWEEN THE MEMBERS WILL EMERGE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED WITH
VCTS FOR NOW WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS BEING ADDED TO ANY
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 8 KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP ON THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  90 /  70  60  30  20
FMY  75  88  73  90 /  30  70  50  40
GIF  73  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  30
SRQ  75  86  76  90 /  60  70  40  20
BKV  71  88  68  90 /  70  50  20  20
SPG  78  87  77  89 /  70  60  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 161827
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA WILL HELP TO INDUCE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
IT WILL DRAG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE INTER- MOUNTAIN
WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES AND WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THE EASTERN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STUBBORN AND KEEP AT LEAST SOME PIECE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS IS MORE
ORGANIZED AND STRUCTURED WITH ITS ENERGY BEGIN A DEFINED PART OF
LEFTOVER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE FRACTURED...OR ENERGY LEFT BEHIND FROM THE THEN
DEPARTED TROUGH.

EITHER WAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE A MESSY PATTERN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER
ITSELF WILL BE OVERLY INCLEMENT...BUT RATHER THAT FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...AND THEREFORE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE (ESPECIALLY BEYOND FRIDAY).

FOR THURSDAY...THE FL PENINSULA IS FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AGAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGE ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

WITHOUT A DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CLEAR OUT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND WILL LEFTOVER ENERGY ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE PATTERN...AND DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEMSELVES AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITHOUT ANY ABNORMAL HEIGHTS...OR CLOUDY/WASHOUT
DAYS EXPECTED...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR NOW KEEP SHOWER CHANCES CONSERVATIVE.
HOPEFULLY A MORE DEFINED PATTERN BETWEEN THE MEMBERS WILL EMERGE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED WITH
VCTS FOR NOW WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS BEING ADDED TO ANY
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 8 KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP ON THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  90 /  70  60  30  20
FMY  75  88  73  90 /  30  70  50  40
GIF  73  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  30
SRQ  75  86  76  90 /  60  70  40  20
BKV  71  88  68  90 /  70  50  20  20
SPG  78  87  77  89 /  70  60  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 161353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO 2+ INCH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
(-7C AT 500MB) PROVIDING BETTER INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (POPS 30 TO 50 PERCENT) ALONG
A WEAK SEA BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE
WEAK IMPULSES AND A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST COUNTIES AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS (70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE) WILL RESIDE. A WEAK STEERING
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE SO A MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS...AND AFTER 19Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
TRICKY...SO VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED FOR NOW...WITH POSSIBLE SHORT
TEMPO GROUPS BECOMING NECESSARY IN ANY AMENDMENTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS 16Z...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREATED
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME HIGHER WAVES OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AND 3 FEET.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 161353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO 2+ INCH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
(-7C AT 500MB) PROVIDING BETTER INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (POPS 30 TO 50 PERCENT) ALONG
A WEAK SEA BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE
WEAK IMPULSES AND A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST COUNTIES AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS (70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE) WILL RESIDE. A WEAK STEERING
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE SO A MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS...AND AFTER 19Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
TRICKY...SO VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED FOR NOW...WITH POSSIBLE SHORT
TEMPO GROUPS BECOMING NECESSARY IN ANY AMENDMENTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS 16Z...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREATED
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME HIGHER WAVES OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AND 3 FEET.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 160840
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FL PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
AND TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...A TRICKY FORECAST AS WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY. GIVEN THE OVERALL COVERAGE ALREADY WENT WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
POPS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE DAY IS
WHERE IT GETS TRICKY AS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE RAIN WILL GET. AFTER INITIALLY FORECASTING LIKELY
POPS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
AND KEEP HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN LESS THAN DESIRED
CONFIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE
BULLISH ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE SO MORE
CHANGES MAY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK. SW FLORIDA RAIN
CHANCES NOT QUITE AS HIGH BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HOWEVER SCT COVERAGE IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN. 00Z MET SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP OVER THE AREA AND SHOWED RAIN/CLOUD TEMPS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH
SO TEMP FORECAST HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MET SOLUTION.

SIMILAR FORECAST CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE
SUITE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MAINTAINED HIGH-END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN LEANED TOWARDS THE 00Z MET FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
AS AREAS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S AT BEST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES AND WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THE EASTERN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STUBBORN AND KEEP AT LEAST SOME PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS IS MORE
ORGANIZED AND STRUCTURED WITH ITS ENERGY BEGIN A DEFINED PART OF
LEFTOVER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE FRACTURED...OR ENERGY LEFT BEHIND FROM THE THEN DEPARTED
TROUGH.

EITHER WAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE A MESSY PATTERN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER
ITSELF WILL BE OVERLY INCLEMENT...BUT RATHER THAT FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...AND THEREFORE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE (ESPECIALLY BEYOND FRIDAY).

FOR THURSDAY...THE FL PENINSULA IS FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AGAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGE ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

WITHOUT A DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CLEAR OUT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND WILL LEFTOVER ENERGY ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE PATTERN...AND DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEMSELVES AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITHOUT ANY ABNORMAL HEIGHTS...OR CLOUDY/WASHOUT
DAYS EXPECTED...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR NOW KEEP SHOWER CHANCES CONSERVATIVE.
HOPEFULLY A MORE DEFINED PATTERN BETWEEN THE MEMBERS WILL EMERGE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY
STARTING AS EARLY AS 15Z AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS AND 18-20Z
FOR SW FLORIDA TERMINALS. LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEAS 2
FEET OR LESS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH RH VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  85  75 /  50  50  60  30
FMY  92  75  88  73 /  40  40  60  50
GIF  89  73  86  72 /  50  40  60  30
SRQ  89  76  84  76 /  50  40  60  40
BKV  88  71  86  68 /  60  50  50  20
SPG  88  76  84  77 /  50  50  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 160840
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FL PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
AND TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...A TRICKY FORECAST AS WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY. GIVEN THE OVERALL COVERAGE ALREADY WENT WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
POPS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE DAY IS
WHERE IT GETS TRICKY AS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE RAIN WILL GET. AFTER INITIALLY FORECASTING LIKELY
POPS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
AND KEEP HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN LESS THAN DESIRED
CONFIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE
BULLISH ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE SO MORE
CHANGES MAY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK. SW FLORIDA RAIN
CHANCES NOT QUITE AS HIGH BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HOWEVER SCT COVERAGE IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN. 00Z MET SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP OVER THE AREA AND SHOWED RAIN/CLOUD TEMPS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH
SO TEMP FORECAST HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MET SOLUTION.

SIMILAR FORECAST CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE
SUITE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MAINTAINED HIGH-END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN LEANED TOWARDS THE 00Z MET FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
AS AREAS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S AT BEST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES AND WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THE EASTERN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STUBBORN AND KEEP AT LEAST SOME PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS IS MORE
ORGANIZED AND STRUCTURED WITH ITS ENERGY BEGIN A DEFINED PART OF
LEFTOVER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE FRACTURED...OR ENERGY LEFT BEHIND FROM THE THEN DEPARTED
TROUGH.

EITHER WAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE A MESSY PATTERN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER
ITSELF WILL BE OVERLY INCLEMENT...BUT RATHER THAT FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...AND THEREFORE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE (ESPECIALLY BEYOND FRIDAY).

FOR THURSDAY...THE FL PENINSULA IS FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AGAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGE ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

WITHOUT A DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CLEAR OUT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND WILL LEFTOVER ENERGY ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE PATTERN...AND DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEMSELVES AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITHOUT ANY ABNORMAL HEIGHTS...OR CLOUDY/WASHOUT
DAYS EXPECTED...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR NOW KEEP SHOWER CHANCES CONSERVATIVE.
HOPEFULLY A MORE DEFINED PATTERN BETWEEN THE MEMBERS WILL EMERGE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY
STARTING AS EARLY AS 15Z AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS AND 18-20Z
FOR SW FLORIDA TERMINALS. LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEAS 2
FEET OR LESS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH RH VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  85  75 /  50  50  60  30
FMY  92  75  88  73 /  40  40  60  50
GIF  89  73  86  72 /  50  40  60  30
SRQ  89  76  84  76 /  50  40  60  40
BKV  88  71  86  68 /  60  50  50  20
SPG  88  76  84  77 /  50  50  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 160121
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH IS RIDGING WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES UP NORTH IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS VERY LIMITED TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE 12Z
SOUNDING WAS THE DRIEST WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER 10 DAYS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF FLORIDA. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL PICK UP
TOMORROW AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS EXCEPT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  60  40
FMY  93  75  92  75 /  20  20  60  40
GIF  92  74  91  73 /  40  20  70  40
SRQ  91  75  88  74 /  20  20  50  40
BKV  92  72  89  69 /  30  20  60  50
SPG  90  79  88  77 /  20  20  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 160121
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH IS RIDGING WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES UP NORTH IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS VERY LIMITED TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE 12Z
SOUNDING WAS THE DRIEST WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER 10 DAYS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF FLORIDA. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL PICK UP
TOMORROW AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS EXCEPT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  60  40
FMY  93  75  92  75 /  20  20  60  40
GIF  92  74  91  73 /  40  20  70  40
SRQ  91  75  88  74 /  20  20  50  40
BKV  92  72  89  69 /  30  20  60  50
SPG  90  79  88  77 /  20  20  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 151953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
DRIER AIR HAS HELD OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDING
DRIER...THOUGH EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
TODAY. THE GENERAL TREND OF OFFSHORE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SHORE IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING TOWARDS HAVING THE CONVECTION SPREAD SOUTH
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. WHILE THE DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKING AGAINST
THIS...THE LACK OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED THE AREA
TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE NATURE COAST WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE AROUND THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND THE COASTAL
AREAS AND IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL LATE EVENING.
GENERAL TRENDS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD BE FOR DIMINISHING CONVECTION
OVER LAND. AROUND SUNRISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF TUESDAY/S ACTIVITY WILL BE CENTERED ALONG AND AHEAD
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE NATURE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
ONCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SEA BREEZE GETS GOING.

TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NATURE COAST WILL BE HELD IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AROUND THE FRONT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS STRUGGLED TO REACH 85 IN LEVY
COUNTY ON TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND BE ABLE TO WARM IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
POPS WILL TREND UP AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S
ARRIVAL. THE HRRR AND LOCAL CAM GUIDANCE WERE GIVEN HEAVY WEIGHT
IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE AND REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE (PWATS AOA 2 INCHES). MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI AS PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN SW FLORIDA. STILL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENINGS...HIGHEST IN SW FL.

BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
WITH SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER DESPITE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR BELOW...EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE GUSTINESS
AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY...LIKELY REACHING A
POSITION SOUTH OF OUR WATERS BY MID-WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COULD RESULT IN
A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT THIS TIME SO SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH SOME SWELL COMPONENT
LIKELY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOST OF OUR
WATERS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND WETTING RAINS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MORNING GROUND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  75  87 /  20  60  40  60
FMY  75  92  75  87 /  30  60  40  60
GIF  74  91  73  88 /  30  70  40  60
SRQ  75  88  74  85 /  20  50  40  60
BKV  72  89  69  88 /  20  60  50  60
SPG  79  88  77  85 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MARINE...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 151953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
DRIER AIR HAS HELD OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDING
DRIER...THOUGH EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
TODAY. THE GENERAL TREND OF OFFSHORE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SHORE IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING TOWARDS HAVING THE CONVECTION SPREAD SOUTH
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. WHILE THE DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKING AGAINST
THIS...THE LACK OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED THE AREA
TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE NATURE COAST WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE AROUND THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND THE COASTAL
AREAS AND IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL LATE EVENING.
GENERAL TRENDS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD BE FOR DIMINISHING CONVECTION
OVER LAND. AROUND SUNRISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF TUESDAY/S ACTIVITY WILL BE CENTERED ALONG AND AHEAD
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE NATURE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
ONCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SEA BREEZE GETS GOING.

TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NATURE COAST WILL BE HELD IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AROUND THE FRONT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS STRUGGLED TO REACH 85 IN LEVY
COUNTY ON TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND BE ABLE TO WARM IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
POPS WILL TREND UP AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S
ARRIVAL. THE HRRR AND LOCAL CAM GUIDANCE WERE GIVEN HEAVY WEIGHT
IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE AND REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE (PWATS AOA 2 INCHES). MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI AS PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN SW FLORIDA. STILL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENINGS...HIGHEST IN SW FL.

BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
WITH SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER DESPITE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR BELOW...EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE GUSTINESS
AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY...LIKELY REACHING A
POSITION SOUTH OF OUR WATERS BY MID-WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COULD RESULT IN
A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT THIS TIME SO SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH SOME SWELL COMPONENT
LIKELY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOST OF OUR
WATERS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND WETTING RAINS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MORNING GROUND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  75  87 /  20  60  40  60
FMY  75  92  75  87 /  30  60  40  60
GIF  74  91  73  88 /  30  70  40  60
SRQ  75  88  74  85 /  20  50  40  60
BKV  72  89  69  88 /  20  60  50  60
SPG  79  88  77  85 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MARINE...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 151539 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1139 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A RELATIVELY
LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.72 INCHES OFF THE 12Z TBW
SOUNDING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY
ALSO SEE LESS ACTIVITY DUE TO DRIER AIR. THE FOCUS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING IS ON THE NATURE COAST WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND
SENT NEW ZONES TO LOWER MOST POPS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO SEE TODAY...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. SHOWER
CHANCES APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER...THOUGH TRENDING DOWN THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
IN THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVERGLADES MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND
SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD BRING MVFR/IFR
TO IMPACTED TERMINALS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY...LIKELY REACHING A
POSITION SOUTH OF OUR WATERS BY MID-WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COULD RESULT IN
A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT THIS TIME SO SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH SOME SWELL COMPONENT
LIKELY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOST OF OUR
WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  40  40
FMY  93  73  91  75 /  40  30  40  40
GIF  92  74  90  73 /  40  30  50  40
SRQ  91  74  89  74 /  20  20  30  40
BKV  92  71  89  69 /  40  20  50  50
SPG  90  78  89  77 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MARINE...63/JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 151539 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1139 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A RELATIVELY
LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.72 INCHES OFF THE 12Z TBW
SOUNDING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY
ALSO SEE LESS ACTIVITY DUE TO DRIER AIR. THE FOCUS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING IS ON THE NATURE COAST WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND
SENT NEW ZONES TO LOWER MOST POPS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO SEE TODAY...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. SHOWER
CHANCES APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER...THOUGH TRENDING DOWN THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
IN THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FROM THE EVERGLADES MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND
SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD BRING MVFR/IFR
TO IMPACTED TERMINALS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY...LIKELY REACHING A
POSITION SOUTH OF OUR WATERS BY MID-WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COULD RESULT IN
A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT THIS TIME SO SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH SOME SWELL COMPONENT
LIKELY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOST OF OUR
WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  40  40
FMY  93  73  91  75 /  40  30  40  40
GIF  92  74  90  73 /  40  30  50  40
SRQ  91  74  89  74 /  20  20  30  40
BKV  92  71  89  69 /  40  20  50  50
SPG  90  78  89  77 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MARINE...63/JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 150925
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
NORTHERN GULF TODAY THEN BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND WEST AS
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
THE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL
WEAKEN SOME TODAY AND BE PUSHED SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

FOR TODAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST...RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ZONES WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING WELL INLAND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT OR DELAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO
INDICATING MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST WHERE SCATTERED POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE THEREFORE
LOWERED POPS TO 20 NEAR THE COAST AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO
40 PERCENT OVER THE FAR NORTH...INTERIOR AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A FEW OF THESE
COULD MOVE INTO LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MOSTLY INTO THE 70S...BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD COULD KEEP SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH SOME
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH SOME DURING THE DAY WITH THE THE FAVORED AREAS TO
SEE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE
50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...THEN
GENERALLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH
AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE AND REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE (PWATS AOA 2 INCHES). MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI AS PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN SW FLORIDA. STILL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENINGS...HIGHEST IN SW FL.

BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
WITH SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER DESPITE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THERE
COULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHIFT TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD
OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS BEHIND IT SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO EASTERLY TO END THE WEEK. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  40  40
FMY  93  73  91  75 /  40  20  40  40
GIF  92  74  90  73 /  40  20  50  40
SRQ  91  74  89  74 /  20  20  30  40
BKV  92  71  89  69 /  30  20  50  50
SPG  90  78  89  77 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 150925
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
NORTHERN GULF TODAY THEN BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND WEST AS
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
THE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL
WEAKEN SOME TODAY AND BE PUSHED SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

FOR TODAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST...RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ZONES WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING WELL INLAND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT OR DELAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO
INDICATING MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST WHERE SCATTERED POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE THEREFORE
LOWERED POPS TO 20 NEAR THE COAST AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO
40 PERCENT OVER THE FAR NORTH...INTERIOR AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A FEW OF THESE
COULD MOVE INTO LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MOSTLY INTO THE 70S...BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD COULD KEEP SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH SOME
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH SOME DURING THE DAY WITH THE THE FAVORED AREAS TO
SEE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE
50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...THEN
GENERALLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH
AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE AND REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE (PWATS AOA 2 INCHES). MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI AS PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN SW FLORIDA. STILL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENINGS...HIGHEST IN SW FL.

BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
WITH SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER DESPITE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THERE
COULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHIFT TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD
OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS BEHIND IT SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO EASTERLY TO END THE WEEK. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  40  40
FMY  93  73  91  75 /  40  20  40  40
GIF  92  74  90  73 /  40  20  50  40
SRQ  91  74  89  74 /  20  20  30  40
BKV  92  71  89  69 /  30  20  50  50
SPG  90  78  89  77 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 150124
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM TX TO ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 30 RIDGED WEST ACROSS FL TO
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING LAND BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON GULF
WATERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS...CLEARING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK
FINE AS THEY ARE.

.AVIATION...
15/00Z-16/00Z. PREVAILING VFR INTO MON MORNING WITH LIGHT MOSTLY
VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT VCNTY TSRA STARTING LATE MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY FROM
THE EAST AND SE IN THE MORNING THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THEN SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEAS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER FLORIDA. THE ONLY
HAZARDS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  77  90 /  20  50  30  50
FMY  74  94  75  92 /  10  60  30  50
GIF  73  93  74  91 /  20  50  30  50
SRQ  74  89  76  89 /  10  40  30  50
BKV  71  92  71  92 /  20  50  40  60
SPG  78  91  78  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN












000
FXUS62 KTBW 141957
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
357 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-MONDAY)...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...ARE RACING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA
BREEZE ALSO DEVELOPED AND BEGAN TO PUSH INLAND NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
TAMPA BAY. THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FAR OCCURRED IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WAS BEST THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE AREA.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY OVER THE WATER.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
TOMORROW...EXPECT A SIMILAR WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 90S. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR
THE NATURE COAST...ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...FOR NOW LEANED TOWARDS A BLENDED
SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MIDWEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PLACE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWA. FOR NOW WENT JUST A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE ON WED AND THU AS THESE
WILL LIKELY BE THE DAYS WITH THE MOST CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY PUSH INTO THE NATURE
COAST ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S WHILE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS EVENING. MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. GUSTY VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER
FLORIDA. THE ONLY HAZARDS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  77  90 /  40  50  30  50
FMY  74  93  75  92 /  30  60  30  50
GIF  73  93  74  91 /  40  50  30  50
SRQ  74  89  76  89 /  40  40  30  50
BKV  71  92  71  92 /  40  50  40  60
SPG  78  91  79  89 /  40  40  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 141957
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
357 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-MONDAY)...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...ARE RACING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA
BREEZE ALSO DEVELOPED AND BEGAN TO PUSH INLAND NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
TAMPA BAY. THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO FAR OCCURRED IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WAS BEST THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE AREA.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY OVER THE WATER.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
TOMORROW...EXPECT A SIMILAR WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 90S. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR
THE NATURE COAST...ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...FOR NOW LEANED TOWARDS A BLENDED
SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MIDWEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PLACE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWA. FOR NOW WENT JUST A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE ON WED AND THU AS THESE
WILL LIKELY BE THE DAYS WITH THE MOST CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY PUSH INTO THE NATURE
COAST ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S WHILE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS EVENING. MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. GUSTY VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEAS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER
FLORIDA. THE ONLY HAZARDS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  77  90 /  40  50  30  50
FMY  74  93  75  92 /  30  60  30  50
GIF  73  93  74  91 /  40  50  30  50
SRQ  74  89  76  89 /  40  40  30  50
BKV  71  92  71  92 /  40  50  40  60
SPG  78  91  79  89 /  40  40  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







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