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000
FXUS62 KTBW 202353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
21/00Z-22/00Z. LIMITED AFTERNOON VCTS HAVE CLEARED THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. PREVAILING VFR AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA NEAR TPA/PIE/SRQ LATE IN THE
MORNING. VCNTY TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL TEND TO PUSH TSRA EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

..HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES
AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON THURSDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  81  94  79  93 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA









000
FXUS62 KTBW 202353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
21/00Z-22/00Z. LIMITED AFTERNOON VCTS HAVE CLEARED THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. PREVAILING VFR AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA NEAR TPA/PIE/SRQ LATE IN THE
MORNING. VCNTY TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL TEND TO PUSH TSRA EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

..HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES
AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON THURSDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  81  94  79  93 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA










000
FXUS62 KTBW 202008 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION...

...HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES
AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON THURSDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  82  93  82  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA









000
FXUS62 KTBW 202008 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION...

...HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES
AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON THURSDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  82  93  82  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 201959
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON TUESDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  82  93  82  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 201959
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON TUESDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  82  93  82  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 201417 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1017 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR CURRENTLY DETECTING SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OFF
THE NATURE COAST...WITH SOME COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED
OFF OBSERVED TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND...WITH GUSTY VARIABILITY AROUND CONVECTION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  80 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  94  78  94  78 /  30  20  40  20
GIF  95  77  96  77 /  20  10  30  10
SRQ  93  78  93  77 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  94  71  95  74 /  10  10  30  20
SPG  92  80  92  82 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 201417 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1017 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR CURRENTLY DETECTING SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OFF
THE NATURE COAST...WITH SOME COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED
OFF OBSERVED TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND...WITH GUSTY VARIABILITY AROUND CONVECTION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  80 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  94  78  94  78 /  30  20  40  20
GIF  95  77  96  77 /  20  10  30  10
SRQ  93  78  93  77 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  94  71  95  74 /  10  10  30  20
SPG  92  80  92  82 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 200829
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHED
FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A STRONG LONGWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE NATURE
COAST...HOWEVER A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MINIMAL. DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEING SUPPLIED BY THE
RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIND A WAY TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER STRONG SURFACE HEATING...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WEST ON THURSDAY...A BIT MORE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANY LOCATION...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AS HIGH AS 106.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BACK IN DECENT AGREEMENT AFTER SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE
WEEK THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY
STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NOW
EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE (96L) AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KRSW...KFMY...KPGD...AND KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  80 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  95  78  94  78 /  30  20  40  20
GIF  95  77  96  77 /  20  10  30  10
SRQ  93  78  93  77 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  94  71  96  74 /  10  10  30  20
SPG  92  80  92  82 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 192318
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A TYPICAL CONFIGURATION OF
THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SEEING A BIT OF A
DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW
ARRIVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED ROUND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS KEPT OUR WEATHER RATHER
QUIET...WITH JUST ENOUGH SUPPRESSION / WARM AIR ALOFT / AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES TO KEEP OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM COVERAGE TO A NEAR
MINIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH THIS GENERALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD
DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SO FAR NONE HAVE LASTED VERY LONG WITH A
SHORT LIFE CYCLE (EVEN FOR PULSE STORMS). AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS WE HAVE ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL EVEN THESE CELLS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF TERRESTRIAL DIURNAL HEATING.

STORMS ARE MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT /TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE PROVIDING THE ADDED FOCUS FOR UPDRAFTS AND
MULTICELL COMPLEXES. THIS BOUNDARY / REGION OF FOCUS MAY DRIFT A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PER MANY NWP
MEMBERS...HOWEVER STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ENHANCED STORM ACTION
REACHING OUR ZONES...BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

AFTER AN UNEVENTFUL OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE
AFTER ANY EVENING STORMS ARE GONE...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE A RATHER HOT DAY THOUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105 IN SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE
JUST A BIT SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
RESPECTED BY THOSE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED STORM NEAR KFMY/KRSW SHOULD FADE QUICKLY BY 01Z AND LEAVE
THE AREA MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM WILL BE FOR
KPGD...KFMY/KRSW. WILL ADD VCTS AFTER 16Z FOR THESE THREE
SITES...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
APPEARS QUITE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  10  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  76  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  80  93  78  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 192318
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A TYPICAL CONFIGURATION OF
THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SEEING A BIT OF A
DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW
ARRIVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED ROUND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS KEPT OUR WEATHER RATHER
QUIET...WITH JUST ENOUGH SUPPRESSION / WARM AIR ALOFT / AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES TO KEEP OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM COVERAGE TO A NEAR
MINIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH THIS GENERALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD
DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SO FAR NONE HAVE LASTED VERY LONG WITH A
SHORT LIFE CYCLE (EVEN FOR PULSE STORMS). AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS WE HAVE ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL EVEN THESE CELLS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF TERRESTRIAL DIURNAL HEATING.

STORMS ARE MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT /TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE PROVIDING THE ADDED FOCUS FOR UPDRAFTS AND
MULTICELL COMPLEXES. THIS BOUNDARY / REGION OF FOCUS MAY DRIFT A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PER MANY NWP
MEMBERS...HOWEVER STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ENHANCED STORM ACTION
REACHING OUR ZONES...BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

AFTER AN UNEVENTFUL OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE
AFTER ANY EVENING STORMS ARE GONE...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE A RATHER HOT DAY THOUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105 IN SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE
JUST A BIT SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
RESPECTED BY THOSE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED STORM NEAR KFMY/KRSW SHOULD FADE QUICKLY BY 01Z AND LEAVE
THE AREA MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM WILL BE FOR
KPGD...KFMY/KRSW. WILL ADD VCTS AFTER 16Z FOR THESE THREE
SITES...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
APPEARS QUITE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  10  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  76  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  80  93  78  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 191847
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
247 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE...WITH RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING VERY SPARSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF AUGUST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND POPS.

LATEST GLOBAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES HERE WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THEN FOCUSING ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCALES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
70S INLAND AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. IT
WILL FEEL HOT OUT THERE AGAIN...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND
AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF
KPGD...KFMY...KRSW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
IN THESE AREAS...WITH NO SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  10  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  76  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  80  93  78  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 191847
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
247 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE...WITH RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING VERY SPARSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF AUGUST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND POPS.

LATEST GLOBAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES HERE WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THEN FOCUSING ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCALES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
70S INLAND AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. IT
WILL FEEL HOT OUT THERE AGAIN...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND
AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF
KPGD...KFMY...KRSW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
IN THESE AREAS...WITH NO SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  10  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  76  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  80  93  78  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 191336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DRIER AIR ABOVE. THE
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HOT
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNING ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND WILL STEADILY RISE TO THE MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S. GRIDS ARE LOOKING
GOOD FOR NOW...WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON MODEL UPDATES TO MAKE
ANY MAJOR TWEAKS IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ONE OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
MARINE CONDITIONS CALM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EACH DAY...WITH SEAS OF LESS
THAN 2 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  92  79 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  94  78  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  94  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  91  81  91  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 191336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DRIER AIR ABOVE. THE
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HOT
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNING ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND WILL STEADILY RISE TO THE MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S. GRIDS ARE LOOKING
GOOD FOR NOW...WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON MODEL UPDATES TO MAKE
ANY MAJOR TWEAKS IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ONE OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
MARINE CONDITIONS CALM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EACH DAY...WITH SEAS OF LESS
THAN 2 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  92  79 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  94  78  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  94  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  91  81  91  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 190810
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE AN OPPRESSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOURAGE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 500MB RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
WEST AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY TO A POSITION ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.

UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE...A RATHER STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY AROUND 1.4-1.7
INCHES AND DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2-1.6 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP...SO ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS SUPPRESSED.

THE BIGGER WEATHER HAZARD THAN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HOT
WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 100-106 EACH DAY...THOUGH THAT IS STILL JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER OF THE
TWO DAYS...AS SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 97
DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND
AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NEAR KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
MARINE CONDITIONS CALM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EACH DAY...WITH SEAS OF LESS
THAN 2 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  92  79 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  94  77  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  94  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  92  81  92  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 190810
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE AN OPPRESSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOURAGE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 500MB RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
WEST AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY TO A POSITION ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.

UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE...A RATHER STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY AROUND 1.4-1.7
INCHES AND DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2-1.6 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP...SO ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS SUPPRESSED.

THE BIGGER WEATHER HAZARD THAN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HOT
WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 100-106 EACH DAY...THOUGH THAT IS STILL JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER OF THE
TWO DAYS...AS SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 97
DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND
AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NEAR KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
MARINE CONDITIONS CALM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EACH DAY...WITH SEAS OF LESS
THAN 2 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  92  79 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  94  77  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  94  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  92  81  92  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 190047
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
847 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SW
FLORIDA. WE DID SEE A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS
REMAINED DRY. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR
MASS FOR MID-AUGUST WITH A PWAT VALUE OF 1.57 INCHES. THE DRIER
ATMOSPHERE CERTAINLY HELPED SUPPRESS OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD SOON DIMINISH NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.

THE DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THAT BEING
SAID...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HARD TO COME BY
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW
FLORIDA WHERE THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
(PWATS 1.6-1.8 INCHES.) EVEN STILL...OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY A
FEW MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. PREVAILING
VFR ON TUE WITH WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON HOWEVER LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF VCSH/VCTS FROM THE TAFS FOR THE AFTN AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
IN OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTMS WILL BE AT
LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET AND TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER AND KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  79  93 /  10  10  10  20
FMY  77  94  77  94 /  20  20  20  30
GIF  76  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  20
SRQ  77  92  77  92 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  72  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  81  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...14/MROCZKA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 181936
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW EVEN
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...LEFT
RAIN LARGELY OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. OTHER
THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WE CAN EXPECT
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID-90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING TO BUILD
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWEST AND
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 106.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPRESS MOISTURE AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ISOLATED ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND RAIN CHANCES TO
RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND OF THE NATURE
COAST...WHILE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...SEA BREEZES AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONVERGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS WHAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES AND KLAL...ALTHOUGH CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS. QUIET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET AND TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER AND KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  79  93 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  76  95  76  96 /   0  20  10  20
SRQ  77  92  77  92 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  72  94  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  80  91  80  92 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 181334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAINLY OUT OVER THE GULF...BUT LAND
AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
STILL IN PLACE SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A DAY FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PRETTY
LOW COVERAGE AGAIN. MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS FOR THE DAY BUT NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ONE OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL REGION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH NO
HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  93  79 /  20   0  10  10
FMY  95  77  94  77 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  94  76  95  76 /  30  10  20  10
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20   0  10  20
BKV  93  72  94  71 /  20   0  10  10
SPG  91  80  92  80 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 181334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAINLY OUT OVER THE GULF...BUT LAND
AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
STILL IN PLACE SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A DAY FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PRETTY
LOW COVERAGE AGAIN. MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS FOR THE DAY BUT NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ONE OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL REGION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH NO
HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  93  79 /  20   0  10  10
FMY  95  77  94  77 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  94  76  95  76 /  30  10  20  10
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20   0  10  20
BKV  93  72  94  71 /  20   0  10  10
SPG  91  80  92  80 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA







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