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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SEPARATES A REGION OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...FROM A MOIST UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER SHOWERY
PERIOD ACROSS MANY OF OUR ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK OVER THE PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...OUR FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE SATURATED
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE SUMMER IS
GENERALLY OUR FAVORED FLOW FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONG
CONVECTION.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AFTER A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE LAND MASS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...BUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE...AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z FRI...
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  20  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  20  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SEPARATES A REGION OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...FROM A MOIST UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER SHOWERY
PERIOD ACROSS MANY OF OUR ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK OVER THE PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...OUR FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE SATURATED
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE SUMMER IS
GENERALLY OUR FAVORED FLOW FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONG
CONVECTION.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AFTER A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE LAND MASS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...BUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE...AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z FRI...
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  20  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  20  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SEPARATES A REGION OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...FROM A MOIST UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER SHOWERY
PERIOD ACROSS MANY OF OUR ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK OVER THE PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...OUR FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE SATURATED
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE SUMMER IS
GENERALLY OUR FAVORED FLOW FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONG
CONVECTION.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AFTER A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE LAND MASS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...BUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE...AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z FRI...
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  20  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  20  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SEPARATES A REGION OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...FROM A MOIST UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER SHOWERY
PERIOD ACROSS MANY OF OUR ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK OVER THE PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...OUR FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE SATURATED
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE SUMMER IS
GENERALLY OUR FAVORED FLOW FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONG
CONVECTION.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AFTER A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE LAND MASS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...BUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE...AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z FRI...
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  20  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  20  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280007
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
807 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z
FRI...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH PCPW VALUES REMAINING AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE.  THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE REGION. EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEERING
INFLUENCE OF ERIKA.

WEAK SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 REGARDING THE DETAILS AND
FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATEST TRACK CONTINUES
POSSIBLE THREATS AND IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEMS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
AS IT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER NW FLOW
AND LOW END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN HAZARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  30  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 280007
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
807 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z
FRI...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH PCPW VALUES REMAINING AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE.  THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE REGION. EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEERING
INFLUENCE OF ERIKA.

WEAK SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 REGARDING THE DETAILS AND
FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATEST TRACK CONTINUES
POSSIBLE THREATS AND IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEMS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
AS IT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER NW FLOW
AND LOW END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN HAZARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  30  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280007
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
807 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z
FRI...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH PCPW VALUES REMAINING AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE.  THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE REGION. EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEERING
INFLUENCE OF ERIKA.

WEAK SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 REGARDING THE DETAILS AND
FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATEST TRACK CONTINUES
POSSIBLE THREATS AND IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEMS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
AS IT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER NW FLOW
AND LOW END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN HAZARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  30  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280007
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
807 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z
FRI...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH PCPW VALUES REMAINING AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE.  THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE REGION. EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEERING
INFLUENCE OF ERIKA.

WEAK SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 REGARDING THE DETAILS AND
FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATEST TRACK CONTINUES
POSSIBLE THREATS AND IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEMS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
AS IT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER NW FLOW
AND LOW END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN HAZARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  30  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271823
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH PCPW VALUES REMAINING AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE.  THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE REGION. EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEERING
INFLUENCE OF ERIKA.

WEAK SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 REGARDING THE DETAILS AND
FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATEST TRACK CONTINUES
POSSIBLE THREATS AND IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEMS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
AS IT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER NW FLOW
AND LOW END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
RSW/FMY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LCL MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN HAZARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  76  91 /  20  50  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  92 /  30  60  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  92 /  30  60  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  91 /  20  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  73  91 /  20  50  20  60
SPG  78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271823
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH PCPW VALUES REMAINING AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE.  THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE REGION. EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEERING
INFLUENCE OF ERIKA.

WEAK SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 REGARDING THE DETAILS AND
FORECAST DISCUSSION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. LATEST TRACK CONTINUES
POSSIBLE THREATS AND IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEMS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
AS IT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER NW FLOW
AND LOW END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
RSW/FMY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LCL MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN HAZARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  76  91 /  20  50  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  92 /  30  60  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  92 /  30  60  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  91 /  20  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  73  91 /  20  50  20  60
SPG  78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271256
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
856 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. W/V
IMAGERY INDICATES U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...THIS HAS
INCREASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
THE AREA WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF 2.12 INCHES. HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN AN HOURS TIME
WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271256
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
856 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. W/V
IMAGERY INDICATES U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...THIS HAS
INCREASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
THE AREA WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF 2.12 INCHES. HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN AN HOURS TIME
WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271256
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
856 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. W/V
IMAGERY INDICATES U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...THIS HAS
INCREASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
THE AREA WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF 2.12 INCHES. HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN AN HOURS TIME
WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271256
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
856 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. W/V
IMAGERY INDICATES U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...THIS HAS
INCREASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
THE AREA WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF 2.12 INCHES. HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN AN HOURS TIME
WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270724
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER HAS MOVED NORTH AND OPENED UP TO
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN
CHAIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVIDING
A DRIER...COOLER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OVER GA/AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 70S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF COAST
WATERS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BEEN FIRING UP ALL NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY AS
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO THE SEASONAL NORM.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS TRACKING WEST NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ISLANDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING TO TRACK
WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS STORM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS SETUP SHOULD HELP STEER ERIKA NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE AND KEEP IT EAST OF OUR AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT ERIKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANYTIME...
BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ERIKA...BUT USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE GONE
WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES DURING MONDAY AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ERIKA.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HELPING TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR
IN WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. IN BETWEEN DURING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 THANKS TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT 12Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER
RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA
WILL KEEP WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  90  77 /  50  30  60  40
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  40
GIF  90  73  92  75 /  60  40  70  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  40  30  40  40
BKV  91  72  90  73 /  50  20  60  40
SPG  89  77  90  78 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270724
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER HAS MOVED NORTH AND OPENED UP TO
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN
CHAIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVIDING
A DRIER...COOLER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OVER GA/AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 70S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF COAST
WATERS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BEEN FIRING UP ALL NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY AS
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO THE SEASONAL NORM.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS TRACKING WEST NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ISLANDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING TO TRACK
WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS STORM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS SETUP SHOULD HELP STEER ERIKA NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE AND KEEP IT EAST OF OUR AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT ERIKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANYTIME...
BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ERIKA...BUT USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE GONE
WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES DURING MONDAY AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ERIKA.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HELPING TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR
IN WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. IN BETWEEN DURING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 THANKS TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT 12Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER
RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA
WILL KEEP WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  90  77 /  50  30  60  40
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  40
GIF  90  73  92  75 /  60  40  70  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  40  30  40  40
BKV  91  72  90  73 /  50  20  60  40
SPG  89  77  90  78 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270724
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER HAS MOVED NORTH AND OPENED UP TO
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN
CHAIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVIDING
A DRIER...COOLER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OVER GA/AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 70S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF COAST
WATERS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BEEN FIRING UP ALL NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY AS
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO THE SEASONAL NORM.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS TRACKING WEST NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ISLANDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING TO TRACK
WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS STORM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS SETUP SHOULD HELP STEER ERIKA NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE AND KEEP IT EAST OF OUR AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT ERIKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANYTIME...
BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ERIKA...BUT USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE GONE
WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES DURING MONDAY AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ERIKA.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HELPING TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR
IN WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. IN BETWEEN DURING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 THANKS TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT 12Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER
RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA
WILL KEEP WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  90  77 /  50  30  60  40
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  40
GIF  90  73  92  75 /  60  40  70  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  40  30  40  40
BKV  91  72  90  73 /  50  20  60  40
SPG  89  77  90  78 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270724
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER HAS MOVED NORTH AND OPENED UP TO
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN
CHAIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVIDING
A DRIER...COOLER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OVER GA/AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 70S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF COAST
WATERS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BEEN FIRING UP ALL NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY AS
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO THE SEASONAL NORM.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS TRACKING WEST NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ISLANDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING TO TRACK
WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS STORM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS SETUP SHOULD HELP STEER ERIKA NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE AND KEEP IT EAST OF OUR AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT ERIKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANYTIME...
BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ERIKA...BUT USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE GONE
WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES DURING MONDAY AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ERIKA.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HELPING TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR
IN WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. IN BETWEEN DURING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 THANKS TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT 12Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER
RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA
WILL KEEP WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  90  77 /  50  30  60  40
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  40
GIF  90  73  92  75 /  60  40  70  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  40  30  40  40
BKV  91  72  90  73 /  50  20  60  40
SPG  89  77  90  78 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER INLAND STORM
ACTIVITY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AIDED IN
PART BY THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS HAS BEEN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. AS THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PERSIST...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES...WHERE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW...AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ALONG/EAST OF I-75...AS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS PROMOTE ROBUST
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS...AND SCT NOCTURNAL STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WITH GENERALLY
BE RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA
INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MON DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER INLAND STORM
ACTIVITY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AIDED IN
PART BY THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS HAS BEEN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. AS THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PERSIST...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES...WHERE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW...AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ALONG/EAST OF I-75...AS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS PROMOTE ROBUST
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS...AND SCT NOCTURNAL STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WITH GENERALLY
BE RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA
INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MON DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER INLAND STORM
ACTIVITY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AIDED IN
PART BY THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS HAS BEEN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. AS THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PERSIST...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES...WHERE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW...AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ALONG/EAST OF I-75...AS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS PROMOTE ROBUST
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS...AND SCT NOCTURNAL STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WITH GENERALLY
BE RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA
INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MON DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270044
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER INLAND STORM
ACTIVITY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AIDED IN
PART BY THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS HAS BEEN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. AS THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PERSIST...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES...WHERE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW...AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ALONG/EAST OF I-75...AS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS PROMOTE ROBUST
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS...AND SCT NOCTURNAL STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WITH GENERALLY
BE RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA
INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MON DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 262342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 262342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 262342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 262342
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-28/00Z. SCT TSRA CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG/BEHIND WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AT NEAR-COASTAL TERMINALS AS TSRA DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THURS...WITH SCT TSRA AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  80  70  30  60
GIF  75  87  74  91 /  70  80  40  70
SRQ  78  87  75  90 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  88  72  91 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AVIATION...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261920
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LOW WAS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
CENTERED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER REACHED TO THE CANADAIN
PRAIRIES...AND A LOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX/LA COASTAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW TRAILED A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST...OVER THE KEYS TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...BECOMING
AND OPEN WAVE...WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...THEN SLIPPING A
BIT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY THU AS A WEAK WAVE TACKS ALONG IT
TOWARD THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT FROM
THE KEYS INTO FAR SOUTH FL.

A DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES OF 1.7 TO AROUND 2 INCHES THAT INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES...WITH THE LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST AND ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
LIMITED SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. OVERALL THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL STAY RATHER MODEST.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRANSITION INLAND LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
BUT OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
WEAKER SEA BREEZE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN RECENTLY. LOWS WILL RUN WARM BUT INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THU KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE
OF NORMAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH TO CUT OFF AND RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
REGION INTO SUNDAY WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO
THE REGION. STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
WASH OUT BY SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO WRAP OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 AND THEN WPC FORECASTS FOR DAYS
6 AND 7 REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS BKN CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE HIGHEST
ODDS OF ROBUST STORMS STAYING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. SHRA AND TSRA
WIND DOWN IN THE EVENING BUT LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE GULF
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE CURRENTLY SOUTH WINDS...
WITH SEAS BREEZES...WILL VEER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OR
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA INTRODUCES UN-CERTAINTY IN THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH HIGH RAINFALL ODDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  76  89 /  30  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  40  70  30  60
GIF  75  89  74  91 /  50  70  40  70
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  30  60  40  70
BKV  74  90  72  91 /  30  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261920
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LOW WAS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
CENTERED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER REACHED TO THE CANADAIN
PRAIRIES...AND A LOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX/LA COASTAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW TRAILED A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST...OVER THE KEYS TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...BECOMING
AND OPEN WAVE...WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...THEN SLIPPING A
BIT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY THU AS A WEAK WAVE TACKS ALONG IT
TOWARD THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT FROM
THE KEYS INTO FAR SOUTH FL.

A DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES OF 1.7 TO AROUND 2 INCHES THAT INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES...WITH THE LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST AND ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
LIMITED SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. OVERALL THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL STAY RATHER MODEST.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRANSITION INLAND LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
BUT OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
WEAKER SEA BREEZE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN RECENTLY. LOWS WILL RUN WARM BUT INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THU KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE
OF NORMAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH TO CUT OFF AND RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
REGION INTO SUNDAY WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO
THE REGION. STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
WASH OUT BY SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO WRAP OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 AND THEN WPC FORECASTS FOR DAYS
6 AND 7 REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS BKN CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE HIGHEST
ODDS OF ROBUST STORMS STAYING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. SHRA AND TSRA
WIND DOWN IN THE EVENING BUT LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE GULF
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE CURRENTLY SOUTH WINDS...
WITH SEAS BREEZES...WILL VEER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OR
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA INTRODUCES UN-CERTAINTY IN THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH HIGH RAINFALL ODDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  76  89 /  30  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  40  70  30  60
GIF  75  89  74  91 /  50  70  40  70
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  30  60  40  70
BKV  74  90  72  91 /  30  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 261920
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LOW WAS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
CENTERED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER REACHED TO THE CANADAIN
PRAIRIES...AND A LOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX/LA COASTAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW TRAILED A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST...OVER THE KEYS TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...BECOMING
AND OPEN WAVE...WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...THEN SLIPPING A
BIT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY THU AS A WEAK WAVE TACKS ALONG IT
TOWARD THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT FROM
THE KEYS INTO FAR SOUTH FL.

A DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES OF 1.7 TO AROUND 2 INCHES THAT INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES...WITH THE LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST AND ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
LIMITED SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. OVERALL THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL STAY RATHER MODEST.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRANSITION INLAND LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
BUT OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
WEAKER SEA BREEZE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN RECENTLY. LOWS WILL RUN WARM BUT INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THU KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE
OF NORMAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH TO CUT OFF AND RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
REGION INTO SUNDAY WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO
THE REGION. STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
WASH OUT BY SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO WRAP OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 AND THEN WPC FORECASTS FOR DAYS
6 AND 7 REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS BKN CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE HIGHEST
ODDS OF ROBUST STORMS STAYING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. SHRA AND TSRA
WIND DOWN IN THE EVENING BUT LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE GULF
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE CURRENTLY SOUTH WINDS...
WITH SEAS BREEZES...WILL VEER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OR
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA INTRODUCES UN-CERTAINTY IN THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH HIGH RAINFALL ODDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  76  89 /  30  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  40  70  30  60
GIF  75  89  74  91 /  50  70  40  70
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  30  60  40  70
BKV  74  90  72  91 /  30  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261920
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LOW WAS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
CENTERED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER REACHED TO THE CANADAIN
PRAIRIES...AND A LOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX/LA COASTAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW TRAILED A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST...OVER THE KEYS TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...BECOMING
AND OPEN WAVE...WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...THEN SLIPPING A
BIT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY THU AS A WEAK WAVE TACKS ALONG IT
TOWARD THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT FROM
THE KEYS INTO FAR SOUTH FL.

A DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES OF 1.7 TO AROUND 2 INCHES THAT INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES...WITH THE LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST AND ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
LIMITED SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. OVERALL THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL STAY RATHER MODEST.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRANSITION INLAND LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
BUT OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
WEAKER SEA BREEZE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN RECENTLY. LOWS WILL RUN WARM BUT INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THU KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE
OF NORMAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH TO CUT OFF AND RETROGRADE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
REGION INTO SUNDAY WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO
THE REGION. STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
WASH OUT BY SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO WRAP OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO
OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS THROUGH DAY 5 AND THEN WPC FORECASTS FOR DAYS
6 AND 7 REGARDING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS BKN CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE HIGHEST
ODDS OF ROBUST STORMS STAYING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. SHRA AND TSRA
WIND DOWN IN THE EVENING BUT LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE GULF
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH THE CURRENTLY SOUTH WINDS...
WITH SEAS BREEZES...WILL VEER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OR
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA INTRODUCES UN-CERTAINTY IN THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON. PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH HIGH RAINFALL ODDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  76  89 /  30  60  30  70
FMY  76  89  75  91 /  40  70  30  60
GIF  75  89  74  91 /  50  70  40  70
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  30  60  40  70
BKV  74  90  72  91 /  30  60  20  70
SPG  79  88  77  89 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 261334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A WEAK LOW WAS ON THE SC COAST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND
INTO THE GULF. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THESE TWO FEATURE ARE PROVIDING A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CENTRAL FL. THE 12Z TBW RAOB HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 2.1 INCHES
WHILE XMR (OVER ON CAPE CANAVERAL) HAD 1.8. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE GULF AND WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW. COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES THEN MAXES OUT LATE
AFTERNOON INLAND FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT FORECASTS
LOOK GOOD WITH FEW IF ANY MINOR CHANGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND
VCNTY TSRA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVE INLAND ON SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED SW AND WEST LOW LEVEL...THEN WIND DOWN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ISOLD TSRA ON THE GULF MAY DRIFT ONSHORE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS...BECOME SOUTHWEST
OR WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  89  76 /  30  20  60  30
FMY  91  75  89  75 /  50  20  80  30
GIF  93  75  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
SRQ  91  77  89  75 /  30  30  60  40
BKV  93  73  90  72 /  30  20  60  30
SPG  91  79  89  77 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...19/GUSACK





000
FXUS62 KTBW 261334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A WEAK LOW WAS ON THE SC COAST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND
INTO THE GULF. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THESE TWO FEATURE ARE PROVIDING A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CENTRAL FL. THE 12Z TBW RAOB HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 2.1 INCHES
WHILE XMR (OVER ON CAPE CANAVERAL) HAD 1.8. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE GULF AND WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW. COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES THEN MAXES OUT LATE
AFTERNOON INLAND FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT FORECASTS
LOOK GOOD WITH FEW IF ANY MINOR CHANGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND
VCNTY TSRA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVE INLAND ON SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED SW AND WEST LOW LEVEL...THEN WIND DOWN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ISOLD TSRA ON THE GULF MAY DRIFT ONSHORE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS...BECOME SOUTHWEST
OR WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  89  76 /  30  20  60  30
FMY  91  75  89  75 /  50  20  80  30
GIF  93  75  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
SRQ  91  77  89  75 /  30  30  60  40
BKV  93  73  90  72 /  30  20  60  30
SPG  91  79  89  77 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...19/GUSACK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261334
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A WEAK LOW WAS ON THE SC COAST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND
INTO THE GULF. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THESE TWO FEATURE ARE PROVIDING A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CENTRAL FL. THE 12Z TBW RAOB HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 2.1 INCHES
WHILE XMR (OVER ON CAPE CANAVERAL) HAD 1.8. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE GULF AND WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW. COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES THEN MAXES OUT LATE
AFTERNOON INLAND FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT FORECASTS
LOOK GOOD WITH FEW IF ANY MINOR CHANGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND
VCNTY TSRA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVE INLAND ON SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED SW AND WEST LOW LEVEL...THEN WIND DOWN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ISOLD TSRA ON THE GULF MAY DRIFT ONSHORE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS...BECOME SOUTHWEST
OR WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  89  76 /  30  20  60  30
FMY  91  75  89  75 /  50  20  80  30
GIF  93  75  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
SRQ  91  77  89  75 /  30  30  60  40
BKV  93  73  90  72 /  30  20  60  30
SPG  91  79  89  77 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...19/GUSACK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260741
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM NEW
MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. LONG WAVE TROUGHING
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER ON THURSDAY
AND CAUSES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. ON
THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THURSDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...WEST SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INLAND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES.
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ON THURSDAY...THIS WILL CREATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY COMING IN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...THE TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN TO A MORE SEASONAL NORM.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM
CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST HELPING TO LIFT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW
STRONG ERIKA WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS IS KEEPING
ERIKA WEAK AND MORE OF A WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS/NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF KEEP IT STRONGER. AT THE PRESENT
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS STILL BRINGING ERIKA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SO
STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. AT THE PRESENT TIME HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...IF ERIKA IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE FORECAST THEN
SUNDAY COULD BE A RATHER DRY DAY AS WE WOULD BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
ZONE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
HEAVIER RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL KEEP WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  89  76 /  30  20  60  30
FMY  91  75  89  75 /  50  20  80  30
GIF  93  75  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
SRQ  91  77  89  75 /  30  30  60  40
BKV  93  73  90  72 /  30  20  60  30
SPG  91  79  89  77 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260741
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM NEW
MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. LONG WAVE TROUGHING
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER ON THURSDAY
AND CAUSES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. ON
THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THURSDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...WEST SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INLAND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES.
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ON THURSDAY...THIS WILL CREATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY COMING IN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...THE TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN TO A MORE SEASONAL NORM.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM
CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST HELPING TO LIFT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW
STRONG ERIKA WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS IS KEEPING
ERIKA WEAK AND MORE OF A WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS/NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF KEEP IT STRONGER. AT THE PRESENT
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS STILL BRINGING ERIKA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SO
STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. AT THE PRESENT TIME HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...IF ERIKA IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE FORECAST THEN
SUNDAY COULD BE A RATHER DRY DAY AS WE WOULD BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
ZONE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
HEAVIER RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL KEEP WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  89  76 /  30  20  60  30
FMY  91  75  89  75 /  50  20  80  30
GIF  93  75  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
SRQ  91  77  89  75 /  30  30  60  40
BKV  93  73  90  72 /  30  20  60  30
SPG  91  79  89  77 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260030
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH TOWARDS THE LEE COUNTY COAST
LINE. CONVECTION IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...BUT A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES RIPPLING ACROSS THE REGION MAY STILL TRIGGER A FEW
MORE BRIEF STORMS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGELY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETUP ACROSS THE LAND AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOLAR HEATING BEGINS TO TRANSLATE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIMPING INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY HELP ENHANCE STORM
CHANCES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR
THE EVENING UPDATE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER THE INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY
AROUND KLAL...AND OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA NEAR KRSW...KFMY...AND
KPGD...AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETAKING CONTROL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  92  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  79  91  75  89 /  30  50  40  70
GIF  78  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  80  91  76  89 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  76  93  73  90 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  82  91  79  89 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260030
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH TOWARDS THE LEE COUNTY COAST
LINE. CONVECTION IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...BUT A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES RIPPLING ACROSS THE REGION MAY STILL TRIGGER A FEW
MORE BRIEF STORMS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGELY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETUP ACROSS THE LAND AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOLAR HEATING BEGINS TO TRANSLATE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIMPING INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY HELP ENHANCE STORM
CHANCES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR
THE EVENING UPDATE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER THE INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY
AROUND KLAL...AND OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA NEAR KRSW...KFMY...AND
KPGD...AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETAKING CONTROL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  92  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  79  91  75  89 /  30  50  40  70
GIF  78  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  80  91  76  89 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  76  93  73  90 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  82  91  79  89 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251924
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REACHED NORTH TO
THE CANADAIN PRAIRIES WHILE A LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE SPRAWLED IN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED
FROM MANITOBA TO TX WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TRAILED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST
WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE CANADAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE THE TROUGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN
FL OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS WED...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO
LIFT FROM NEAR THE KEYS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

WHILE THE  BOUNDARY WEAKENS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF IT. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN GENERALLY 1.6 TO OVER 2 INCHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH A FEW POCKETS BELOW 1.6 TRAVERSING SOME
OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SEA BREEZES
OF TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS EASES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED
BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE PENETRATION
ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. EXPECT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DAY OR SO
TO CONTINUE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED AS ERIKA MAY BE
INFLUENCING THE AREA. MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...THE GFS WITH JUST A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT OVER THE GULF STREAM UP THE EAST FL COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY COMES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR LOWS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z-26/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HAVE SET UP AT THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST ODDS OF TSRA INLAND...WITH ONLY VCNTY TSRA AT LAL AND
FROM PGD SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
OVER NIGHT PICK LATE WED MORNING FROM THE SOUTH OR SW. COASTAL
SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT PGD/FMY/RSW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GRADIENT STAYING
RATHER RELAXED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BENIGN. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDER- STORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  77  91  75  89 /  20  50  40  70
GIF  77  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  78  91  76  89 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  74  93  73  90 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  81  91  79  89 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 251924
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REACHED NORTH TO
THE CANADAIN PRAIRIES WHILE A LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE SPRAWLED IN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED
FROM MANITOBA TO TX WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TRAILED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST
WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE CANADAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE THE TROUGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN
FL OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS WED...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO
LIFT FROM NEAR THE KEYS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

WHILE THE  BOUNDARY WEAKENS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF IT. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN GENERALLY 1.6 TO OVER 2 INCHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH A FEW POCKETS BELOW 1.6 TRAVERSING SOME
OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SEA BREEZES
OF TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS EASES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED
BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE PENETRATION
ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. EXPECT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DAY OR SO
TO CONTINUE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED AS ERIKA MAY BE
INFLUENCING THE AREA. MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...THE GFS WITH JUST A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT OVER THE GULF STREAM UP THE EAST FL COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY COMES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR LOWS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z-26/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HAVE SET UP AT THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST ODDS OF TSRA INLAND...WITH ONLY VCNTY TSRA AT LAL AND
FROM PGD SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
OVER NIGHT PICK LATE WED MORNING FROM THE SOUTH OR SW. COASTAL
SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT PGD/FMY/RSW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GRADIENT STAYING
RATHER RELAXED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BENIGN. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDER- STORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  77  91  75  89 /  20  50  40  70
GIF  77  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  78  91  76  89 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  74  93  73  90 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  81  91  79  89 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251924
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REACHED NORTH TO
THE CANADAIN PRAIRIES WHILE A LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE SPRAWLED IN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED
FROM MANITOBA TO TX WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TRAILED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST
WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE CANADAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE THE TROUGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN
FL OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS WED...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO
LIFT FROM NEAR THE KEYS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

WHILE THE  BOUNDARY WEAKENS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF IT. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN GENERALLY 1.6 TO OVER 2 INCHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH A FEW POCKETS BELOW 1.6 TRAVERSING SOME
OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SEA BREEZES
OF TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS EASES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED
BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE PENETRATION
ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. EXPECT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DAY OR SO
TO CONTINUE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED AS ERIKA MAY BE
INFLUENCING THE AREA. MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...THE GFS WITH JUST A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT OVER THE GULF STREAM UP THE EAST FL COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY COMES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR LOWS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z-26/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HAVE SET UP AT THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST ODDS OF TSRA INLAND...WITH ONLY VCNTY TSRA AT LAL AND
FROM PGD SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
OVER NIGHT PICK LATE WED MORNING FROM THE SOUTH OR SW. COASTAL
SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT PGD/FMY/RSW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GRADIENT STAYING
RATHER RELAXED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BENIGN. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDER- STORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  77  91  75  89 /  20  50  40  70
GIF  77  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  78  91  76  89 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  74  93  73  90 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  81  91  79  89 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





000
FXUS62 KTBW 251924
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REACHED NORTH TO
THE CANADAIN PRAIRIES WHILE A LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE SPRAWLED IN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED
FROM MANITOBA TO TX WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TRAILED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARCED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST
WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE CANADAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE THE TROUGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN
FL OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS WED...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO
LIFT FROM NEAR THE KEYS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

WHILE THE  BOUNDARY WEAKENS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF IT. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN GENERALLY 1.6 TO OVER 2 INCHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH A FEW POCKETS BELOW 1.6 TRAVERSING SOME
OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SEA BREEZES
OF TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS EASES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED
BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE PENETRATION
ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. EXPECT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DAY OR SO
TO CONTINUE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED AS ERIKA MAY BE
INFLUENCING THE AREA. MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...THE GFS WITH JUST A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT OVER THE GULF STREAM UP THE EAST FL COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY COMES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR LOWS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z-26/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HAVE SET UP AT THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST ODDS OF TSRA INLAND...WITH ONLY VCNTY TSRA AT LAL AND
FROM PGD SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
OVER NIGHT PICK LATE WED MORNING FROM THE SOUTH OR SW. COASTAL
SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT PGD/FMY/RSW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GRADIENT STAYING
RATHER RELAXED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BENIGN. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDER- STORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  77  91  75  89 /  20  50  40  70
GIF  77  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  78  91  76  89 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  74  93  73  90 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  81  91  79  89 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251259
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH GA INTO FAR
NORTH FL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AND WILL TRANSITION INLAND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY SEA
BREEZES WILL TEND TO KEEP THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND. THE LIGHT FLOW
MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL ISSUE UPDATES...IF ANY...BY
10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW/AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
PUSH BEST ODDS OF TSRA EAST OF TERMINALS...JUST VCNTY IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...ENHANCED
BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WILL PREVAIL WITH BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE WELL INLAND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...GUSACK





000
FXUS62 KTBW 251259
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH GA INTO FAR
NORTH FL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AND WILL TRANSITION INLAND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY SEA
BREEZES WILL TEND TO KEEP THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND. THE LIGHT FLOW
MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL ISSUE UPDATES...IF ANY...BY
10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW/AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
PUSH BEST ODDS OF TSRA EAST OF TERMINALS...JUST VCNTY IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...ENHANCED
BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WILL PREVAIL WITH BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE WELL INLAND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...GUSACK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251259
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH GA INTO FAR
NORTH FL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AND WILL TRANSITION INLAND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY SEA
BREEZES WILL TEND TO KEEP THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND. THE LIGHT FLOW
MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL ISSUE UPDATES...IF ANY...BY
10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW/AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
PUSH BEST ODDS OF TSRA EAST OF TERMINALS...JUST VCNTY IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...ENHANCED
BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WILL PREVAIL WITH BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE WELL INLAND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...GUSACK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251259
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH GA INTO FAR
NORTH FL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AND WILL TRANSITION INLAND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY SEA
BREEZES WILL TEND TO KEEP THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND. THE LIGHT FLOW
MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL ISSUE UPDATES...IF ANY...BY
10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12Z-26/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN
IN THE FAR SOUTH. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW/AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
PUSH BEST ODDS OF TSRA EAST OF TERMINALS...JUST VCNTY IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...ENHANCED
BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WILL PREVAIL WITH BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE WELL INLAND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...GUSACK





000
FXUS62 KTBW 250800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR CEDAR KEY AND FORT MYERS AREA FORMED ALONG
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 75-85.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL DISSIPATE. WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SARASOTA AND NORTH. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS AND PLENTY
OF SUN MAKING THE EXPECTED 106 HEAT INDEX FEEL EVEN HOTTER.

THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT GO AS FAR INLAND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 30KFT MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A SEBRING TO FORT MYERS LINE. DRY CONDITIONS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES TO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE PUSH/CONVERGENCE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT. ONSHORE WINDS TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WILL PUSH THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE VILLAGES TO VENICE.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER QUEBEC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE UPPER
LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BUT REMAINS STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER FLORIDA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ON MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE AND THE
CAROLINAS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE STARTING OVER THE GULF AND THEN MOVING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE MORE SEASONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING
TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT TO
MOVE INLAND FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE
AS FAR INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO
2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  80  91  78 /  20  10  30  20
FMY  93  77  90  76 /  50  20  60  50
GIF  95  77  93  75 /  30  20  50  20
SRQ  92  78  90  76 /  20  10  30  30
BKV  95  74  93  73 /  20  10  40  20
SPG  93  80  91  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...74/WYNN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 250800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR CEDAR KEY AND FORT MYERS AREA FORMED ALONG
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 75-85.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL DISSIPATE. WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SARASOTA AND NORTH. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS AND PLENTY
OF SUN MAKING THE EXPECTED 106 HEAT INDEX FEEL EVEN HOTTER.

THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT GO AS FAR INLAND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 30KFT MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A SEBRING TO FORT MYERS LINE. DRY CONDITIONS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES TO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE PUSH/CONVERGENCE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT. ONSHORE WINDS TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WILL PUSH THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE VILLAGES TO VENICE.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER QUEBEC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE UPPER
LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BUT REMAINS STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER FLORIDA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ON MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE AND THE
CAROLINAS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE STARTING OVER THE GULF AND THEN MOVING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE MORE SEASONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING
TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT TO
MOVE INLAND FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE
AS FAR INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO
2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  80  91  78 /  20  10  30  20
FMY  93  77  90  76 /  50  20  60  50
GIF  95  77  93  75 /  30  20  50  20
SRQ  92  78  90  76 /  20  10  30  30
BKV  95  74  93  73 /  20  10  40  20
SPG  93  80  91  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...74/WYNN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 250800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR CEDAR KEY AND FORT MYERS AREA FORMED ALONG
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 75-85.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL DISSIPATE. WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SARASOTA AND NORTH. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS AND PLENTY
OF SUN MAKING THE EXPECTED 106 HEAT INDEX FEEL EVEN HOTTER.

THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT GO AS FAR INLAND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 30KFT MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A SEBRING TO FORT MYERS LINE. DRY CONDITIONS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES TO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE PUSH/CONVERGENCE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT. ONSHORE WINDS TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WILL PUSH THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE VILLAGES TO VENICE.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER QUEBEC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE UPPER
LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BUT REMAINS STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER FLORIDA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ON MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE AND THE
CAROLINAS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE STARTING OVER THE GULF AND THEN MOVING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE MORE SEASONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING
TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT TO
MOVE INLAND FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE
AS FAR INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO
2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  80  91  78 /  20  10  30  20
FMY  93  77  90  76 /  50  20  60  50
GIF  95  77  93  75 /  30  20  50  20
SRQ  92  78  90  76 /  20  10  30  30
BKV  95  74  93  73 /  20  10  40  20
SPG  93  80  91  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...74/WYNN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 250800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR CEDAR KEY AND FORT MYERS AREA FORMED ALONG
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 75-85.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL DISSIPATE. WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SARASOTA AND NORTH. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS AND PLENTY
OF SUN MAKING THE EXPECTED 106 HEAT INDEX FEEL EVEN HOTTER.

THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT GO AS FAR INLAND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 30KFT MEANS SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A SEBRING TO FORT MYERS LINE. DRY CONDITIONS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES TO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE PUSH/CONVERGENCE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT. ONSHORE WINDS TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WILL PUSH THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE VILLAGES TO VENICE.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER QUEBEC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE UPPER
LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BUT REMAINS STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER FLORIDA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ON MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE AND THE
CAROLINAS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE STARTING OVER THE GULF AND THEN MOVING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE MORE SEASONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MODELS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUING
TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT TO
MOVE INLAND FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE
AS FAR INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO
2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  80  91  78 /  20  10  30  20
FMY  93  77  90  76 /  50  20  60  50
GIF  95  77  93  75 /  30  20  50  20
SRQ  92  78  90  76 /  20  10  30  30
BKV  95  74  93  73 /  20  10  40  20
SPG  93  80  91  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...74/WYNN




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