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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES WESTWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE STATE
SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND BE ENHANCED AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GREATEST
HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO GENERALLY 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS OVER THE VERY SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES...BUT
GENERALLY STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FEATURES A SIMILAR SET-UP WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A TERMINAL CAN CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY MOVING WEST PUSHING OFFSHORE. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  75  92  77 /  60  20  50  30
FMY  93  75  93  75 /  60  10  50  20
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  50  10  40  10
SRQ  93  75  93  75 /  60  20  50  30
BKV  94  72  93  72 /  50  20  50  20
SPG  92  79  91  79 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES WESTWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE STATE
SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND BE ENHANCED AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GREATEST
HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO GENERALLY 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS OVER THE VERY SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES...BUT
GENERALLY STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FEATURES A SIMILAR SET-UP WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A TERMINAL CAN CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY MOVING WEST PUSHING OFFSHORE. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  75  92  77 /  60  20  50  30
FMY  93  75  93  75 /  60  10  50  20
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  50  10  40  10
SRQ  93  75  93  75 /  60  20  50  30
BKV  94  72  93  72 /  50  20  50  20
SPG  92  79  91  79 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010101 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
901 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDED
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME STRONG STORMS PRODUCED
DAMAGING WINDS AND AT LEAST ONE REPORTED WATERSPOUT TODAY.
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AS THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS MOVED NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NATURE COAST AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS...NO UPDATES TO THE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER ON MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW
3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG
THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
DEVELOPING OVER LAND AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  78  92 /  30  50  20  50
FMY  75  94  76  92 /  20  60  10  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  10  50  10  40
SRQ  75  92  76  91 /  30  60  20  50
BKV  72  93  73  93 /  40  50  20  40
SPG  79  92  80  91 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010101 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
901 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDED
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME STRONG STORMS PRODUCED
DAMAGING WINDS AND AT LEAST ONE REPORTED WATERSPOUT TODAY.
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AS THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS MOVED NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NATURE COAST AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS...NO UPDATES TO THE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER ON MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW
3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG
THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
DEVELOPING OVER LAND AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  78  92 /  30  50  20  50
FMY  75  94  76  92 /  20  60  10  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  10  50  10  40
SRQ  75  92  76  91 /  30  60  20  50
BKV  72  93  73  93 /  40  50  20  40
SPG  79  92  80  91 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311943
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE TOP OF AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHORTWAVE /
MOMENTUM PUSH IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND
OUR REGION UNDERNEATH THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE MENTIONED
ABOVE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE STAYING PUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ARRIVING OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST... ALTHOUGH THE
12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS LAUNCHED AHEAD OF THIS PUSH...AND
LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE MUCH OF THE THIS AIRMASS THAT IS NOW STREAMING
OVERHEAD. EVEN STILL...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALREADY DRIER THAN 24
HOURS AGO WITH A PW VALUE DOWN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
1.7".

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING DISORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WHICH IS QUICKLY TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MID-AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY
ARRIVING AROUND THE FORT MYERS AREA AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH
POLK/HIGHLANDS/DESOTO/HARDEE COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...SO FAR THE CONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND
SHALLOW IN NATURE AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW IS WITH THE SEA-BREEZE
FLOW...LIMITING LOW LEVEL FOCUS. DO EXPECT A LEAST SOME MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY AND THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE ARRIVES AT THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH OF
FORT MYERS. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL OF THE COASTAL OBS FLIP AROUND ONSHORE
INDICATING SEA-BREEZE FORMATION...AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
PRONOUNCED CONVERGENCE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS / DEEP CONVECTION INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE MIXED REALLY WELL SO FAR THIS
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH CU BASES AROUND THE REGION GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE
5KFT. THIS SUGGEST WE NOW HAVE A DEEP MIXED LAYER / INVERTED V
PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL BELIEVE WE
ARE LOOKING AT AN ENHANCED WIND GUST THREAT FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY ON RADAR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING INTO THE GULF WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET...WHICH WILLS SET UP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS MAY
LINGER FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS UP OVER THE COASTAL NATURE COAST BEFORE
EVEN HERE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AND PUSHES OFFSHORE. WITH THE FAST
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST...THE DURATION OF RAINFALL
FOR ANY ONE LOCATIONS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT...HOWEVER
THE CHANCES FOR A PASSING STORM ARE FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM
PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES SOUTHWARD. CURRENT GRIDS SHOWS 60-70%
COVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND FEEL THIS FORECAST IS STILL
VALID.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY...AND HENCE NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MANY OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY
SUGGESTING WIND WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST WILL SHOW A QUIET AND MAINLY RAIN FREE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING STORM CHANCES
ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WITH THE SEA-BREEZE. THE PEAK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD AGAIN FALL BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM TO THE SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND
4 TO 8 PM FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UP INTO THE
NATURE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH
EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
ITS WAY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITH 500
MB TEMPS COOLING SLIGHTLY TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS DEFINED BUT DOES
STILL SHOW SOME COOL TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -7. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SCALE BACK POPS A BIT...THOUGH STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE WITH THE COOLING 500 MB TEMPS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
WE AWAIT MORE LATE DAY STORMS. STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW
3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG
THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
DEVELOPING OVER LAND AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AMPLE
ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL LEVELS
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE EACH
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE
PREVIOUS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  78  92 /  30  50  20  50
FMY  75  94  76  92 /  10  60  10  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  10  50  10  40
SRQ  75  92  76  91 /  30  60  20  50
BKV  72  93  73  93 /  40  50  20  40
SPG  79  93  80  91 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...FLEMING
LONG TERM...CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311943
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE TOP OF AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHORTWAVE /
MOMENTUM PUSH IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND
OUR REGION UNDERNEATH THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE MENTIONED
ABOVE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE STAYING PUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ARRIVING OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST... ALTHOUGH THE
12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS LAUNCHED AHEAD OF THIS PUSH...AND
LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE MUCH OF THE THIS AIRMASS THAT IS NOW STREAMING
OVERHEAD. EVEN STILL...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALREADY DRIER THAN 24
HOURS AGO WITH A PW VALUE DOWN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
1.7".

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING DISORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WHICH IS QUICKLY TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MID-AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY
ARRIVING AROUND THE FORT MYERS AREA AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH
POLK/HIGHLANDS/DESOTO/HARDEE COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...SO FAR THE CONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND
SHALLOW IN NATURE AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW IS WITH THE SEA-BREEZE
FLOW...LIMITING LOW LEVEL FOCUS. DO EXPECT A LEAST SOME MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY AND THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE ARRIVES AT THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH OF
FORT MYERS. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL OF THE COASTAL OBS FLIP AROUND ONSHORE
INDICATING SEA-BREEZE FORMATION...AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
PRONOUNCED CONVERGENCE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS / DEEP CONVECTION INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE MIXED REALLY WELL SO FAR THIS
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH CU BASES AROUND THE REGION GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE
5KFT. THIS SUGGEST WE NOW HAVE A DEEP MIXED LAYER / INVERTED V
PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL BELIEVE WE
ARE LOOKING AT AN ENHANCED WIND GUST THREAT FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY ON RADAR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING INTO THE GULF WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET...WHICH WILLS SET UP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS MAY
LINGER FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS UP OVER THE COASTAL NATURE COAST BEFORE
EVEN HERE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AND PUSHES OFFSHORE. WITH THE FAST
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST...THE DURATION OF RAINFALL
FOR ANY ONE LOCATIONS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT...HOWEVER
THE CHANCES FOR A PASSING STORM ARE FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM
PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES SOUTHWARD. CURRENT GRIDS SHOWS 60-70%
COVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND FEEL THIS FORECAST IS STILL
VALID.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY...AND HENCE NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MANY OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY
SUGGESTING WIND WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST WILL SHOW A QUIET AND MAINLY RAIN FREE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING STORM CHANCES
ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WITH THE SEA-BREEZE. THE PEAK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD AGAIN FALL BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM TO THE SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND
4 TO 8 PM FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UP INTO THE
NATURE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH
EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
ITS WAY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITH 500
MB TEMPS COOLING SLIGHTLY TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS DEFINED BUT DOES
STILL SHOW SOME COOL TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -7. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SCALE BACK POPS A BIT...THOUGH STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE WITH THE COOLING 500 MB TEMPS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
WE AWAIT MORE LATE DAY STORMS. STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW
3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG
THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
DEVELOPING OVER LAND AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AMPLE
ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL LEVELS
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE EACH
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE
PREVIOUS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  78  92 /  30  50  20  50
FMY  75  94  76  92 /  10  60  10  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  10  50  10  40
SRQ  75  92  76  91 /  30  60  20  50
BKV  72  93  73  93 /  40  50  20  40
SPG  79  93  80  91 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...FLEMING
LONG TERM...CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 311515 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE TOP OF AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHORTWAVE /
MOMENTUM PUSH IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSER TO
HOME WE FIND OUR REGION UNDERNEATH THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE STAYING PUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON WV IMAGERY ARRIVING OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST...
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS LAUNCHED AHEAD OF THIS
PUSH...AND LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE MUCH OF THE THIS AIRMASS THAT IS
NOW STREAMING OVERHEAD. EVEN STILL...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH A PW VALUE DOWN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
TO AROUND 1.7".

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY IS A BIT TRICKY. NO DOUBT THAT WE WILL
SEE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER...
TODAYS COLUMN PER THIS 12Z SOUNDING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AS WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVELS
TODAY ARE A BIT WARMER AND ALSO A BIT DRIER. IN ADDITION...THE LOWER
LEVELS BELOW 700MB SHOW A BIT OF A WARM/DRY BUBBLE/CAP. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS CAP WILL BE ENOUGH TO STOP CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD
CERTAINLY WORK TO DELAY ITS ONSET. WILL NEED TO MIX THE BOUNDARY
LAYER A BIT HIGHER TO OVERCOME THIS CIN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FEEL
THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY
AND TODAY.

SO...THE COLUMN IS A BIT DRIER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED
HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ONE CONCERN WITH HAVING TO MIX OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS THAT WE
WILL END UP WITH A DEEPER INVERTED V SIGNATURE / MIXED LAYER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER WILL
PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT WITH THESE LATE DAY STORMS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE SEEING A WELL DEFINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
1000-700MB SYNOPTIC FLOW TODAY...AND THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW INTERACTS
WITH A FEEBLE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.

HIRES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SUITE OF MODELS SEEM TO BE PINNING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MANY OF
THESE MEMBERS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE UP ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
NOW THERE IS DEFINITELY A TREND HERE...BUT OVERALL DO NOT SEE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS. PERHAPS A BIT GREATER OVERALL SUPPRESSION IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN
THESE SIMULATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINOR. WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE HAVE KEEP RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY OUT OF THE LIKELY
RANGE (GREATER THAN 60%) TO THE NORTH OF PASCO COUNTY...BUT DO NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING LESS THAN CHANCE 40-50% FOR THESE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...AS YOU HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...ESPECIALLY
HIGHLAND COUNTY OVER TO THE FORT MYERS AREAS WILL BE FIRST TO SEE
THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP LAYER EAST/SE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN...AND THE RAP KEEPS THIS GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN THE PREVAILING STORM MOTION
FROM ESE TO WNW TODAY. BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS ANY
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY IN YOUR DIRECTION AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
WITH TIME.

ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING INTO THE GULF WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET...WHICH WILLS SET UP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO LABOR
DAY...AND HENCE NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE A QUIET MORNING AND THEN MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. MORE ON THE MONDAY DETAILS WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE GUSTY LATE DAY STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
WE AWAIT MORE LATE DAY STORMS. STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DEVELOPING OVER LAND
AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  70  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  94  76 /  70  10  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  70  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  50  40  40  30
SPG  93  79  93  80 /  70  40  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311515 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE TOP OF AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHORTWAVE /
MOMENTUM PUSH IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSER TO
HOME WE FIND OUR REGION UNDERNEATH THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE STAYING PUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON WV IMAGERY ARRIVING OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST...
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS LAUNCHED AHEAD OF THIS
PUSH...AND LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE MUCH OF THE THIS AIRMASS THAT IS
NOW STREAMING OVERHEAD. EVEN STILL...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH A PW VALUE DOWN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
TO AROUND 1.7".

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY IS A BIT TRICKY. NO DOUBT THAT WE WILL
SEE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER...
TODAYS COLUMN PER THIS 12Z SOUNDING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AS WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVELS
TODAY ARE A BIT WARMER AND ALSO A BIT DRIER. IN ADDITION...THE LOWER
LEVELS BELOW 700MB SHOW A BIT OF A WARM/DRY BUBBLE/CAP. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS CAP WILL BE ENOUGH TO STOP CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD
CERTAINLY WORK TO DELAY ITS ONSET. WILL NEED TO MIX THE BOUNDARY
LAYER A BIT HIGHER TO OVERCOME THIS CIN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FEEL
THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY
AND TODAY.

SO...THE COLUMN IS A BIT DRIER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED
HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ONE CONCERN WITH HAVING TO MIX OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS THAT WE
WILL END UP WITH A DEEPER INVERTED V SIGNATURE / MIXED LAYER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER WILL
PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT WITH THESE LATE DAY STORMS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE SEEING A WELL DEFINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
1000-700MB SYNOPTIC FLOW TODAY...AND THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW INTERACTS
WITH A FEEBLE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.

HIRES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SUITE OF MODELS SEEM TO BE PINNING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MANY OF
THESE MEMBERS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE UP ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
NOW THERE IS DEFINITELY A TREND HERE...BUT OVERALL DO NOT SEE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS. PERHAPS A BIT GREATER OVERALL SUPPRESSION IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN
THESE SIMULATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINOR. WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE HAVE KEEP RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY OUT OF THE LIKELY
RANGE (GREATER THAN 60%) TO THE NORTH OF PASCO COUNTY...BUT DO NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING LESS THAN CHANCE 40-50% FOR THESE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...AS YOU HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...ESPECIALLY
HIGHLAND COUNTY OVER TO THE FORT MYERS AREAS WILL BE FIRST TO SEE
THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP LAYER EAST/SE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN...AND THE RAP KEEPS THIS GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN THE PREVAILING STORM MOTION
FROM ESE TO WNW TODAY. BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS ANY
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY IN YOUR DIRECTION AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
WITH TIME.

ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING INTO THE GULF WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET...WHICH WILLS SET UP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO LABOR
DAY...AND HENCE NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE A QUIET MORNING AND THEN MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. MORE ON THE MONDAY DETAILS WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE GUSTY LATE DAY STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
WE AWAIT MORE LATE DAY STORMS. STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DEVELOPING OVER LAND
AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  70  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  94  76 /  70  10  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  70  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  50  40  40  30
SPG  93  79  93  80 /  70  40  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN








000
FXUS62 KTBW 311506
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE TOP OF AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHORTWAVE /
MOMENTUM PUSH IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSER TO
HOME WE FIND OUR REGION UNDERNEATH THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE STAYING PUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON WV IMAGERY ARRIVING OVER TH FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS LAUNCHED AHEAD
OF THIS PUSH AND LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE MUCH OF THE IS AIRMASS THAT
IS NOW STREAMING OVERHEAD. EVEN STILL...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH A PW VALUE DOWN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
TO AROUND 1.7".

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY IS A BIT TRICKY. NO DOUBT THAT WE WILL
SEE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER...
TODAYS COLUMN PER THIS 12Z SOUNDING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AS WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVELS
TODAY ARE A BIT WARMER AND ALSO A BIT DRIER. IN ADDITION...THE LOWER
LEVELS BELOW 700MB SHOW A BIT OF A WARM/DRY BUBBLE/CAP. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS CAP WILL BE ENOUGH TO STOP CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD
CERTAINLY WORK TO DELAY ITS ONSET. WILL NEED TO MIX THE BOUNDARY
LAYER A BIT HIGHER TO OVERCOME THIS CIN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FEEL
THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY
AND TODAY.

SO...THE COLUMN IS A BIT DRIER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED
HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ONE CONCERN WITH HAVING TO MIX OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS THAT WE
WILL END UP WITH A DEEPER INVERTED V SIGNATURE / MIXED LAYER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER WILL
PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT WITH THESE LATE DAY STORMS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE SEEING A WELL DEFINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
1000-700MB SYNOPTIC FLOW TODAY...AND THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW INTERACTS
WITH A FEEBLE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.

HIRES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SUITE OF MODELS SEEM TO BE PINNING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MANY OF
THESE MEMBERS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE UP ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
NOW THERE IS DEFINITELY A TREND HERE...BUT OVERALL DO NOT SEE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS. PERHAPS A BIT GREATER OVERALL SUPPRESSION IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN
THESE SIMULATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINOR. WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE HAVE KEEP RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY OUT OF THE LIKELY
RANGE (GREATER THAN 60%) TO THE NORTH OF PASCO COUNTY...BUT DO NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING LESS THAN CHANCE 40-50% FOR THESE NORTHERN
ZONES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...AS YOU HEAD
NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...ESPECIALLY HIGHLAND COUNTY OVER TO THE FORT MYERS AREAS WILL
BE FIRST TO SEE THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP LAYER EAST/SE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN...AND THE RAP KEEPS THIS GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN THE PREVAILING STORM MOTION
FROM ESE TO WNW TODAY. BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS ANY
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY IN YOUR DIRECTION AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
WITH TIME.

ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING INTO THE GULF WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNDAY...WHICH WILLS SET UP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO LABOR
DAY...AND HENCE NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE A QUIET MORNING AND THEN MANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
MORE ON THE MONDAY DETAILS WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. HAVE A
GREAT SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE GUSTY LATE DAY STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
WE AWAIT MORE LATE DAY STORMS. STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DEVELOPING OVER LAND
AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  70  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  94  76 /  70  10  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  70  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  50  40  40  30
SPG  93  79  93  80 /  70  40  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311506
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE TOP OF AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHORTWAVE /
MOMENTUM PUSH IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSER TO
HOME WE FIND OUR REGION UNDERNEATH THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE STAYING PUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON WV IMAGERY ARRIVING OVER TH FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS LAUNCHED AHEAD
OF THIS PUSH AND LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE MUCH OF THE IS AIRMASS THAT
IS NOW STREAMING OVERHEAD. EVEN STILL...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH A PW VALUE DOWN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
TO AROUND 1.7".

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY IS A BIT TRICKY. NO DOUBT THAT WE WILL
SEE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER...
TODAYS COLUMN PER THIS 12Z SOUNDING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AS WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVELS
TODAY ARE A BIT WARMER AND ALSO A BIT DRIER. IN ADDITION...THE LOWER
LEVELS BELOW 700MB SHOW A BIT OF A WARM/DRY BUBBLE/CAP. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS CAP WILL BE ENOUGH TO STOP CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD
CERTAINLY WORK TO DELAY ITS ONSET. WILL NEED TO MIX THE BOUNDARY
LAYER A BIT HIGHER TO OVERCOME THIS CIN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FEEL
THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY
AND TODAY.

SO...THE COLUMN IS A BIT DRIER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED
HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ONE CONCERN WITH HAVING TO MIX OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS THAT WE
WILL END UP WITH A DEEPER INVERTED V SIGNATURE / MIXED LAYER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER WILL
PROMOTE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT WITH THESE LATE DAY STORMS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE SEEING A WELL DEFINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
1000-700MB SYNOPTIC FLOW TODAY...AND THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW INTERACTS
WITH A FEEBLE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.

HIRES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SUITE OF MODELS SEEM TO BE PINNING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MANY OF
THESE MEMBERS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE UP ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
NOW THERE IS DEFINITELY A TREND HERE...BUT OVERALL DO NOT SEE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS. PERHAPS A BIT GREATER OVERALL SUPPRESSION IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN
THESE SIMULATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINOR. WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE HAVE KEEP RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY OUT OF THE LIKELY
RANGE (GREATER THAN 60%) TO THE NORTH OF PASCO COUNTY...BUT DO NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING LESS THAN CHANCE 40-50% FOR THESE NORTHERN
ZONES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...AS YOU HEAD
NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...ESPECIALLY HIGHLAND COUNTY OVER TO THE FORT MYERS AREAS WILL
BE FIRST TO SEE THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP LAYER EAST/SE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN...AND THE RAP KEEPS THIS GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN THE PREVAILING STORM MOTION
FROM ESE TO WNW TODAY. BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS ANY
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY IN YOUR DIRECTION AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
WITH TIME.

ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING INTO THE GULF WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNDAY...WHICH WILLS SET UP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO LABOR
DAY...AND HENCE NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE A QUIET MORNING AND THEN MANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
MORE ON THE MONDAY DETAILS WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. HAVE A
GREAT SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE GUSTY LATE DAY STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
WE AWAIT MORE LATE DAY STORMS. STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DEVELOPING OVER LAND
AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  70  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  94  76 /  70  10  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  70  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  50  40  40  30
SPG  93  79  93  80 /  70  40  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 310752
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES WESTWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE STATE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING THE GREATEST HAZARDS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN
OBSERVED COVERAGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
GENERALLY 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH
EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
ITS WAY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITH 500
MB TEMPS COOLING SLIGHTLY TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS DEFINED BUT DOES
STILL SHOW SOME COOL TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -7. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SCALE BACK POPS A BIT...THOUGH STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE WITH THE COOLING 500 MB TEMPS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A TERMINAL CAN CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 01/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY MOVING WEST PUSHING OFFSHORE. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  60  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  93  76 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  60  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  40  20  40  30
SPG  93  79  92  80 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 310752
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES WESTWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE STATE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING THE GREATEST HAZARDS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN
OBSERVED COVERAGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
GENERALLY 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH
EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
ITS WAY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITH 500
MB TEMPS COOLING SLIGHTLY TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS DEFINED BUT DOES
STILL SHOW SOME COOL TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -7. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SCALE BACK POPS A BIT...THOUGH STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE WITH THE COOLING 500 MB TEMPS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A TERMINAL CAN CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 01/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY MOVING WEST PUSHING OFFSHORE. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  60  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  93  76 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  60  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  40  20  40  30
SPG  93  79  92  80 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 310134 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...STORMS MOVING THROUGH NATURE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...

.UPDATE...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVED ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS REPORTED AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AND SUNCOAST AREAS. WHILE THE
NIGHT HAS QUIETED DOWN FOR AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 4 SOUTHWARD...THE
NATURE COAST AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SEE THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH OBSERVED TRENDS...THOUGH A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
EASTERLY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT MANY OF
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH AFTN SEABREEZE ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS SETTING
UP ALONG THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE BIGGEST MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS...SEAS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN AND AROUND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  50  60  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  30  50
GIF  75  95  75  93 /  30  40  20  40
SRQ  75  93  75  92 /  40  60  30  50
BKV  73  94  73  93 /  70  50  20  50
SPG  77  92  80  92 /  50  60  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 310134 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...STORMS MOVING THROUGH NATURE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...

.UPDATE...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVED ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS REPORTED AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AND SUNCOAST AREAS. WHILE THE
NIGHT HAS QUIETED DOWN FOR AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 4 SOUTHWARD...THE
NATURE COAST AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SEE THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH OBSERVED TRENDS...THOUGH A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
EASTERLY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT MANY OF
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH AFTN SEABREEZE ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS SETTING
UP ALONG THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE BIGGEST MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS...SEAS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN AND AROUND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  50  60  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  30  50
GIF  75  95  75  93 /  30  40  20  40
SRQ  75  93  75  92 /  40  60  30  50
BKV  73  94  73  93 /  70  50  20  50
SPG  77  92  80  92 /  50  60  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL








000
FXUS62 KTBW 301908
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED INLAND FROM
ABOUT VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO PALM BEACH WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THIS TIME.
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS JUST BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE WITH A
RECENT WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT VENICE. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS A BIT BETTER DEFINED NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING TODAY
WELL SHOWING A LATER THAN NORMAL START AND A BETTER PUSH FROM THE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA THAN TO THE NORTH. THIS
LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE OF HAVING HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTHWARD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG
THE NATURE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW IS WEAKER. FOR NOW WILL END
RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGER NORTH.

SUNDAY COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS BEING ALONG THE COAST. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING VERY FAR INLAND EXCEPT
FOR THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE
SOUTHERLY.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT SHORT LIVED PULSE TYPE
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING US GENERALLY IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST COAST IN THE
EVENING. MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH 19Z THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF
IFR/LIFR AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AROUND FMY...RSW...AND PGD 19-23Z WHILE
FARTHER NORTH WILL BE 21-01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH
AFTN SEABREEZE ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS SETTING UP ALONG
THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BIGGEST MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN AND AROUND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  30  50
GIF  75  95  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  75  93  75  92 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  73  94  73  93 /  30  50  20  50
SPG  80  93  79  92 /  40  60  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...CARLISLE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 301908
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED INLAND FROM
ABOUT VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO PALM BEACH WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THIS TIME.
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS JUST BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE WITH A
RECENT WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT VENICE. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS A BIT BETTER DEFINED NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING TODAY
WELL SHOWING A LATER THAN NORMAL START AND A BETTER PUSH FROM THE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA THAN TO THE NORTH. THIS
LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE OF HAVING HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTHWARD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG
THE NATURE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW IS WEAKER. FOR NOW WILL END
RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGER NORTH.

SUNDAY COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS BEING ALONG THE COAST. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING VERY FAR INLAND EXCEPT
FOR THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE
SOUTHERLY.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT SHORT LIVED PULSE TYPE
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING US GENERALLY IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST COAST IN THE
EVENING. MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH 19Z THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF
IFR/LIFR AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AROUND FMY...RSW...AND PGD 19-23Z WHILE
FARTHER NORTH WILL BE 21-01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH
AFTN SEABREEZE ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS SETTING UP ALONG
THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BIGGEST MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN AND AROUND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  30  50
GIF  75  95  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  75  93  75  92 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  73  94  73  93 /  30  50  20  50
SPG  80  93  79  92 /  40  60  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...CARLISLE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301348
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
948 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING DEPICTS A UNIFORMLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL GIVE US STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL TO
GET THROUGH A WEAK WARM LAYER NEAR 800 MBS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...LOCAL AND NATIONALLY RUN...ARE
SHOWING A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE COAST NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
11Z HRRR IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...WHICH
LENDS CONFIDENCE TO MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. THE
ONLY QUESTION IS IN TIMING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE AFTER 5 PM...AND IT COULD EVEN BE CLOSER TO 7 OR 8
PM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST. WINDS THROUGH 15KFT ARE ALL
EASTERLY SO ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY
MOVE TOWARD OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. THE QUESTION IS SPEED. OVERALL
STORM MOTION OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE
SLOW...LIKELY ONLY AROUND 5 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND OF COURSE PLENTY OF LIGHTNING. IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WHERE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED STORMS IS
EXPECTED. TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN USUAL...POSSIBLY EVEN CLOSER TO
00Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS
TO AN ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  93  78 /  80  40  40  30
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  60  20  40  30
GIF  93  75  94  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  92  76  94  75 /  80  30  40  30
BKV  94  74  94  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  93  80  93  79 /  70  40  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JILLSON
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING THE BIGGEST HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
GENERALLY  90-95 EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING US GENERALLY IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST COAST IN THE
EVENING. MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS. CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL CAN
CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 31/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  93  78 /  40  20  40  30
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  30
GIF  93  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
SRQ  92  76  94  75 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  94  74  94  73 /  40  20  40  20
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING THE BIGGEST HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
GENERALLY  90-95 EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING US GENERALLY IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST COAST IN THE
EVENING. MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS. CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL CAN
CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 31/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  93  78 /  40  20  40  30
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  30
GIF  93  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
SRQ  92  76  94  75 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  94  74  94  73 /  40  20  40  20
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300048
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
848 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN IN RADAR
IMAGERY. MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL THIS
EVENING FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES WHICH DIDN/T SEE AS MUCH CONVECTION EARLIER. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 11
PM. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS AFTER 11 PM AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO DEVELOP...KEEPING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED TO THE GULF.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT KTPA...KPIE...KSRQ...AND KLAL THROUGH
03Z AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  78  93 /  30  60  30  50
FMY  75  94  76  93 /  10  50  20  50
GIF  76  94  75  93 /  50  50  20  50
SRQ  77  93  76  93 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  74  93  73  93 /  30  60  30  50
SPG  80  93  80  92 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300048
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
848 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN IN RADAR
IMAGERY. MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL THIS
EVENING FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES WHICH DIDN/T SEE AS MUCH CONVECTION EARLIER. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 11
PM. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS AFTER 11 PM AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO DEVELOP...KEEPING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED TO THE GULF.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT KTPA...KPIE...KSRQ...AND KLAL THROUGH
03Z AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  78  93 /  30  60  30  50
FMY  75  94  76  93 /  10  50  20  50
GIF  76  94  75  93 /  50  50  20  50
SRQ  77  93  76  93 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  74  93  73  93 /  30  60  30  50
SPG  80  93  80  92 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 291946
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WHILE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THE
SYNOPTIC EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER SOUTH WE WILL STILL
SEE PLENTY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THIS
EVENING THEN WIND DOWN OVER LAND. ON SATURDAY THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THE BAY/SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO THE INITIAL CONVECTION
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE TOWARD THE THE WEST NORTHWEST ALBEIT KIND OF
WEAK SO THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE AROUND THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGHEST LIKELY POPS WILL BE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND CUBA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FORMING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A POCKET OF DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION LOWERING POPS TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURNING BRINGING POPS BACK UP TO 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S...EXCEPT
NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO
ONSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  50
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  40  50  20  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  40  50  20  50
SRQ  76  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  50
BKV  73  93  73  93 /  40  60  30  50
SPG  81  92  80  92 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291946
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WHILE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THE
SYNOPTIC EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER SOUTH WE WILL STILL
SEE PLENTY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THIS
EVENING THEN WIND DOWN OVER LAND. ON SATURDAY THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THE BAY/SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO THE INITIAL CONVECTION
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE TOWARD THE THE WEST NORTHWEST ALBEIT KIND OF
WEAK SO THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE AROUND THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGHEST LIKELY POPS WILL BE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND CUBA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FORMING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A POCKET OF DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION LOWERING POPS TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURNING BRINGING POPS BACK UP TO 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S...EXCEPT
NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO
ONSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  50
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  40  50  20  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  40  50  20  50
SRQ  76  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  50
BKV  73  93  73  93 /  40  60  30  50
SPG  81  92  80  92 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 291456
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1056 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE MORNING TBW
SOUNDING WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOW UP AROUND 2.1 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
TO AROUND -6 CELSIUS WITH LIFTED INDEX DOWN TO ABOUT -7.
THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AN INITIAL STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER THE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK SO AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESS THE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE/DEVELOP AND MOVE MORE WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. IN GENERAL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK..,BUT HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  94  78 /  60  40  40  20
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  60  40  30  20
GIF  94  76  94  75 /  60  40  40  20
SRQ  93  77  93  76 /  50  40  40  20
BKV  94  73  95  73 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  92  81  93  80 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS







000
FXUS62 KTBW 291456
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1056 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE MORNING TBW
SOUNDING WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOW UP AROUND 2.1 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
TO AROUND -6 CELSIUS WITH LIFTED INDEX DOWN TO ABOUT -7.
THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AN INITIAL STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER THE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK SO AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESS THE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE/DEVELOP AND MOVE MORE WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. IN GENERAL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK..,BUT HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  94  78 /  60  40  40  20
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  60  40  30  20
GIF  94  76  94  75 /  60  40  40  20
SRQ  93  77  93  76 /  50  40  40  20
BKV  94  73  95  73 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  92  81  93  80 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS






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