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000
FXUS62 KTBW 012010
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS BROKEN UP AND MOVED OUT OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...NOW REPLACED BY SCATTERED CUMULUS BEING FUELED
BY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO AS
TEMPERATURES DROP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES...WITH AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SOME SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
PREDICTING THE ONSET OF SEA FOG OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
A HISTORY OF BEING BIASED TOWARDS STARTING THESE EVENTS MUCH TOO
SOON. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SEA FOG INTO THE
FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

LAND ZONES ON MONDAY SHOULD SEE A FEW LESS CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...SO A BIT MORE SOLAR HEATING WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL AS WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...BUT THE
POSSIBILITY WILL STILL REMAIN FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE GENERALLY SHOWING BETWEEN H5 HEIGHTS OF 588-590 DAM
CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA. LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH AVERAGES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TUES-THURS. WITH DEEPER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ON WED AND THURS WE MIGHT SEE SOME SEA FOG DEVELOP
AND PUSH NEAR THE COASTLINE. THE NEXT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH A FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
INTO THE STATE AND STALLING. TODAY...GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS DROPPING THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEFORE STALLING
WHILE THE THE ECMWF IS STALLING FURTHER NORTH. POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND NOW DIFFER BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EURO GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT. SO FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN/SCATTERED CLOUD BASES HAVE LIFTED ABOVE 3000 FEET...LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT AREA TERMINALS ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW
STRATUS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE FRONT TO FORM NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER ON THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF SEA FOG WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  80  64  81 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  65  85  64  84 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  65  83  63  82 /  20  10  10  10
SRQ  63  79  62  79 /  20  10  10   0
BKV  60  82  59  83 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  66  78  65  78 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 012010
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS BROKEN UP AND MOVED OUT OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...NOW REPLACED BY SCATTERED CUMULUS BEING FUELED
BY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO AS
TEMPERATURES DROP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES...WITH AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SOME SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
PREDICTING THE ONSET OF SEA FOG OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
A HISTORY OF BEING BIASED TOWARDS STARTING THESE EVENTS MUCH TOO
SOON. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SEA FOG INTO THE
FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

LAND ZONES ON MONDAY SHOULD SEE A FEW LESS CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...SO A BIT MORE SOLAR HEATING WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL AS WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...BUT THE
POSSIBILITY WILL STILL REMAIN FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE GENERALLY SHOWING BETWEEN H5 HEIGHTS OF 588-590 DAM
CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA. LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH AVERAGES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TUES-THURS. WITH DEEPER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ON WED AND THURS WE MIGHT SEE SOME SEA FOG DEVELOP
AND PUSH NEAR THE COASTLINE. THE NEXT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH A FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
INTO THE STATE AND STALLING. TODAY...GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS DROPPING THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEFORE STALLING
WHILE THE THE ECMWF IS STALLING FURTHER NORTH. POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND NOW DIFFER BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EURO GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT. SO FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN/SCATTERED CLOUD BASES HAVE LIFTED ABOVE 3000 FEET...LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT AREA TERMINALS ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW
STRATUS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE FRONT TO FORM NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER ON THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF SEA FOG WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  80  64  81 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  65  85  64  84 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  65  83  63  82 /  20  10  10  10
SRQ  63  79  62  79 /  20  10  10   0
BKV  60  82  59  83 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  66  78  65  78 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 011449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW RADAR AND REGIONAL ASOS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT ALL RAIN HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WELL SATURATED BELOW 650MB. LOW
STRATUS IS STILL COVERING ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. FARTHER
NORTH...OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST COUNTIES...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE MID 70S. AS A RESULT...THE MAX TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT
DAY...INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER HIGHS
OVER THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH ALL TAF SITES FORECAST TO BE VFR BY
AROUND NOON. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THROUGH PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THIS TIME. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX AND WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH
BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE FORMATION WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ONSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  65  79  64 /  30  10  10   0
FMY  82  65  83  64 /  30  10  10   0
GIF  80  65  81  63 /  30  20  10  10
SRQ  78  63  79  62 /  30  10  10   0
BKV  80  60  80  59 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  77  65  77  65 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 011449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW RADAR AND REGIONAL ASOS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT ALL RAIN HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WELL SATURATED BELOW 650MB. LOW
STRATUS IS STILL COVERING ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. FARTHER
NORTH...OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST COUNTIES...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE MID 70S. AS A RESULT...THE MAX TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT
DAY...INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER HIGHS
OVER THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH ALL TAF SITES FORECAST TO BE VFR BY
AROUND NOON. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THROUGH PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THIS TIME. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX AND WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH
BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE FORMATION WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ONSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  65  79  64 /  30  10  10   0
FMY  82  65  83  64 /  30  10  10   0
GIF  80  65  81  63 /  30  20  10  10
SRQ  78  63  79  62 /  30  10  10   0
BKV  80  60  80  59 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  77  65  77  65 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 011449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW RADAR AND REGIONAL ASOS OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT ALL RAIN HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WELL SATURATED BELOW 650MB. LOW
STRATUS IS STILL COVERING ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. FARTHER
NORTH...OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST COUNTIES...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE MID 70S. AS A RESULT...THE MAX TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT
DAY...INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER HIGHS
OVER THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH ALL TAF SITES FORECAST TO BE VFR BY
AROUND NOON. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THROUGH PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THIS TIME. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX AND WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH
BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE FORMATION WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ONSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  65  79  64 /  30  10  10   0
FMY  82  65  83  64 /  30  10  10   0
GIF  80  65  81  63 /  30  20  10  10
SRQ  78  63  79  62 /  30  10  10   0
BKV  80  60  80  59 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  77  65  77  65 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010815
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AS ONE BRANCH OF THE
NORTHER STREAM DIPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A
SECOND BRANCH DROPS DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST AROUND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA...AND EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN VERY
WELL ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND OVER THE FL PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WE FIND A
LARGE WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ACROSS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...AND
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...THIS WILL FORCE THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALL THIS TRANSLATES INTO A WARM AND SPRING-LIKE
FORECAST FOR OUR REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND WAS THE SET UP FOR
THE OVERRUNNING/UPGLIDE PATTERN THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SLACKEN AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE THE DEPTH OF
UPGLIDE REGIME AND SLOWLY SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER PRODUCTION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LINGERING UPGLIDE IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER STRATUS...AND RESULT IN A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THINGS WILL START TO
DRY OUT...TEMPORARILY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM ONE
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
INTO OUR REGION...TO ONE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE MORE AND MORE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE IS SHOWN BY MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TO HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE...HOWEVER A
LOWER LEVEL LAYER OF UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND BE HELPING
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. FURTHER SOUTH...ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STATE...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY
SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS (IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER)...AND THIS
SHOULD EXPAND UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING.

OVER TIME WILL SEE MORE AND MORE SUNNY BREAKS FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...AND WILL HAVE EVERYONE GOING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH THE SUNNY BREAKS...WE WILL BE SEEING STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING OVER TIME AS WELL AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND EXITS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z...AND IN FACT ALL THE HIRES GUIDANCE SHOW THIS TURNING OF
THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST.

WHILE WE EXPECT THE MORNING TO BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WE
CAN NOT KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE COMPLETELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A COUPLE OF THINGS COME INTO PLAY HERE. THE FIRST IS
THE STRONG HEATING OVER LAND WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF BL CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG WITH
HELPING TO FORCE THE SEA-BREEZE...IS ALSO SHOWING BY THE GUIDANCE
SUITE TO STRENGTHEN AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THIS TROUGH IS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED IN THE NAM/SREF AND
HIRES MEMBERS. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WHEN ONE
ADDS THE EVENTUAL ADDITIONAL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE FROM THE
SEA-BREEZE...IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING LIMITED
CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN FACT...THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE
LOCAL WRFARW...ALONG WITH THE LATEST NCEP HIRES RUNS ARE REMARKABLY
SIMILAR IN THE PATTERN OF ALLOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 19-20Z
ALONG THIS I-75 CORRIDOR. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH A 30%
POP FOR SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. IF THE HIRES RUNS ARE CORRECT...THEN
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER WOULD EXIST WITHIN ABOUT
30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-75...HOWEVER...HAVE GONE A BIT MORE BROAD
THAN THAT WITH THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT
TO EVALUATE THE PATTERN EVOLUTION...AND ADD A BIT MORE TEMPORAL
AND/OR SPATIAL DETAIL. THE CONVECTION IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY
ROBUST...AND CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD
BE PLANNED FOR IF OUTDOORS LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING
LOSS OF SURFACE FOCUS. WILL END ALL SHOWERS BY 03-04Z...WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEREAFTER. FOCUS INTO THE LATER OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...AND AS WE START TO SEE
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILD...AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...THE
SETUP FOR FOG IS FAIRLY GOOD. IN FACT...THE LATEST SREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT IS GREATER THAN 80% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT HAS
BEEN MY EXPERIENCE TO BEGIN TAKING THE SREF FOG POTENTIAL SERIOUSLY
WHEN PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO EXCEED 70% OR SO. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG INTO THE GRIDS...AND AGAIN WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
BEFORE ADDING DENSE FOG WORDING TO THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...JUST BE
AWARE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE RESULTING FROM VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER LEVY COUNTY...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER DURING THE DAY.
WILL BE EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS
OFF (WHICH MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS). FORECASTING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EASILY MIX OUT TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (LEVY/CITRUS
COUNTIES)...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. THE STRONG
HEATING FORCES ANOTHER SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT (MID/UPPER 70S) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...AS THE FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH DISTANCE INLAND TO FIND THE LOWER
80S AGAIN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IS
NOT ZERO...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AS WE MIGHT SEE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR...IF THINGS DO NOT LINE UP JUST RIGHT...THEN CONVECTION IS
REALLY NOT THAT LIKELY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERALLY DRY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THROUGH WED; THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING THAT
GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST. INITIALLY  THE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS WITH A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT BASIN...RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN THAT REACHED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM QUEBEC SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
REGION SHIFTS OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WHILE RIDGING BACK ACROSS
FL TO THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL VEER WINDS FROM
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING IN SOME WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SEA FOG AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COOLER GULF WATERS.

THU-FRI; THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...BY NOW STRETCHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
WHILE THE WESTERN END MEANDERS NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
GULF UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND HANGS ON FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA
TO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND GULF REGION...WITH THE FRONT
GETTING STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON OR NEAR THE GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST...WITH NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY BRIDGING THE FRONT AND FILLING IN
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM...INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THAT SPREAD
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES THU RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOL ON
FRI...TO NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS.

SAT; THE BAJA TROUGH BEGINS WORKING EAST...ALONG THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
OR NORTHWEST MEXICO BORDER REGIONS...WITH FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO
BACK TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT RESIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS IN FL OR OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND NORTH FL WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING
SLIGHTLY MORE RAINFALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. IN EITHER CASE THERE
WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS OR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND JUST UNDER
IN THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SO FAR...THE CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTED AT MOST TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE THIS
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
MVFR AND WILL CHOOSE TO STAY IN THE RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
BRING ALL TERMINALS BACK TO VFR FOR THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 19-20Z...LINGERING THROUGH 00-02Z. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
BRIEF AND HAVE USED VCSH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS
DISSIPATED BY LATE EVENING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO FOG POTENTIAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF IFR FOG AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX AND WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH
BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE FORMATION WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ONSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE GENERALLY SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NEARSHORE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY BY LATER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WOULD END THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
SHIFT WINDS BACK FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF FOG POTENTIAL ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND ERC VALUES ARE LOW ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOWEVER BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE FOG
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIME. AREAS OF FOG ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  65  79  64 /  30  10  10   0
FMY  82  65  83  64 /  30  10  10   0
GIF  80  65  81  63 /  30  20  10  10
SRQ  78  63  79  62 /  20  10  10   0
BKV  80  60  80  59 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  78  65  78  65 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010815
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AS ONE BRANCH OF THE
NORTHER STREAM DIPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A
SECOND BRANCH DROPS DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST AROUND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA...AND EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN VERY
WELL ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND OVER THE FL PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WE FIND A
LARGE WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ACROSS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...AND
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...THIS WILL FORCE THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALL THIS TRANSLATES INTO A WARM AND SPRING-LIKE
FORECAST FOR OUR REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND WAS THE SET UP FOR
THE OVERRUNNING/UPGLIDE PATTERN THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SLACKEN AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE THE DEPTH OF
UPGLIDE REGIME AND SLOWLY SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER PRODUCTION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LINGERING UPGLIDE IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER STRATUS...AND RESULT IN A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THINGS WILL START TO
DRY OUT...TEMPORARILY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM ONE
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
INTO OUR REGION...TO ONE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE MORE AND MORE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE IS SHOWN BY MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TO HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE...HOWEVER A
LOWER LEVEL LAYER OF UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND BE HELPING
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. FURTHER SOUTH...ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STATE...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY
SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS (IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER)...AND THIS
SHOULD EXPAND UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING.

OVER TIME WILL SEE MORE AND MORE SUNNY BREAKS FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...AND WILL HAVE EVERYONE GOING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH THE SUNNY BREAKS...WE WILL BE SEEING STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING OVER TIME AS WELL AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND EXITS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z...AND IN FACT ALL THE HIRES GUIDANCE SHOW THIS TURNING OF
THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST.

WHILE WE EXPECT THE MORNING TO BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WE
CAN NOT KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE COMPLETELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A COUPLE OF THINGS COME INTO PLAY HERE. THE FIRST IS
THE STRONG HEATING OVER LAND WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF BL CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG WITH
HELPING TO FORCE THE SEA-BREEZE...IS ALSO SHOWING BY THE GUIDANCE
SUITE TO STRENGTHEN AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THIS TROUGH IS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED IN THE NAM/SREF AND
HIRES MEMBERS. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WHEN ONE
ADDS THE EVENTUAL ADDITIONAL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE FROM THE
SEA-BREEZE...IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING LIMITED
CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN FACT...THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE
LOCAL WRFARW...ALONG WITH THE LATEST NCEP HIRES RUNS ARE REMARKABLY
SIMILAR IN THE PATTERN OF ALLOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 19-20Z
ALONG THIS I-75 CORRIDOR. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH A 30%
POP FOR SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. IF THE HIRES RUNS ARE CORRECT...THEN
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER WOULD EXIST WITHIN ABOUT
30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-75...HOWEVER...HAVE GONE A BIT MORE BROAD
THAN THAT WITH THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT
TO EVALUATE THE PATTERN EVOLUTION...AND ADD A BIT MORE TEMPORAL
AND/OR SPATIAL DETAIL. THE CONVECTION IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY
ROBUST...AND CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD
BE PLANNED FOR IF OUTDOORS LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING
LOSS OF SURFACE FOCUS. WILL END ALL SHOWERS BY 03-04Z...WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEREAFTER. FOCUS INTO THE LATER OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...AND AS WE START TO SEE
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILD...AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...THE
SETUP FOR FOG IS FAIRLY GOOD. IN FACT...THE LATEST SREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT IS GREATER THAN 80% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT HAS
BEEN MY EXPERIENCE TO BEGIN TAKING THE SREF FOG POTENTIAL SERIOUSLY
WHEN PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO EXCEED 70% OR SO. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG INTO THE GRIDS...AND AGAIN WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
BEFORE ADDING DENSE FOG WORDING TO THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...JUST BE
AWARE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE RESULTING FROM VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER LEVY COUNTY...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER DURING THE DAY.
WILL BE EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS
OFF (WHICH MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS). FORECASTING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EASILY MIX OUT TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (LEVY/CITRUS
COUNTIES)...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. THE STRONG
HEATING FORCES ANOTHER SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT (MID/UPPER 70S) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...AS THE FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH DISTANCE INLAND TO FIND THE LOWER
80S AGAIN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IS
NOT ZERO...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AS WE MIGHT SEE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR...IF THINGS DO NOT LINE UP JUST RIGHT...THEN CONVECTION IS
REALLY NOT THAT LIKELY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERALLY DRY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THROUGH WED; THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING THAT
GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST. INITIALLY  THE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS WITH A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT BASIN...RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN THAT REACHED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM QUEBEC SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SPRAWLING DOWN ACROSS THE GULF
REGION SHIFTS OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WHILE RIDGING BACK ACROSS
FL TO THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL VEER WINDS FROM
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING IN SOME WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SEA FOG AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COOLER GULF WATERS.

THU-FRI; THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...BY NOW STRETCHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
WHILE THE WESTERN END MEANDERS NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
GULF UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND HANGS ON FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA
TO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND GULF REGION...WITH THE FRONT
GETTING STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON OR NEAR THE GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST...WITH NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY BRIDGING THE FRONT AND FILLING IN
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM...INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THAT SPREAD
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES THU RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOL ON
FRI...TO NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS.

SAT; THE BAJA TROUGH BEGINS WORKING EAST...ALONG THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
OR NORTHWEST MEXICO BORDER REGIONS...WITH FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO
BACK TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT RESIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS IN FL OR OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND NORTH FL WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING
SLIGHTLY MORE RAINFALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. IN EITHER CASE THERE
WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS OR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND JUST UNDER
IN THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SO FAR...THE CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTED AT MOST TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE THIS
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
MVFR AND WILL CHOOSE TO STAY IN THE RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
BRING ALL TERMINALS BACK TO VFR FOR THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 19-20Z...LINGERING THROUGH 00-02Z. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
BRIEF AND HAVE USED VCSH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. ANY SHOWERS
DISSIPATED BY LATE EVENING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO FOG POTENTIAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BOTH STATISTICAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF IFR FOG AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX AND WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH
BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE FORMATION WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ONSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE GENERALLY SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NEARSHORE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY BY LATER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WOULD END THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
SHIFT WINDS BACK FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF FOG POTENTIAL ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND ERC VALUES ARE LOW ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOWEVER BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE FOG
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIME. AREAS OF FOG ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  65  79  64 /  30  10  10   0
FMY  82  65  83  64 /  30  10  10   0
GIF  80  65  81  63 /  30  20  10  10
SRQ  78  63  79  62 /  20  10  10   0
BKV  80  60  80  59 /  30  20  10   0
SPG  78  65  78  65 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010232
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE
DUMPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MOST OF THIS RAIN WAS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW AREAS THAT ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND OVER
CHARLOTTE COUNTY. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE POCKETS DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z
SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR COVERAGE...EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND UPDATED
ZONES WITH THOSE CHANGES SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR REGION WIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH THE
REST OF THE ZONES REMAINING BELOW HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  77  65  78 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010232
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE
DUMPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MOST OF THIS RAIN WAS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW AREAS THAT ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND OVER
CHARLOTTE COUNTY. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE POCKETS DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z
SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR COVERAGE...EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND UPDATED
ZONES WITH THOSE CHANGES SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR REGION WIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH THE
REST OF THE ZONES REMAINING BELOW HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  77  65  78 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 010232
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE
DUMPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MOST OF THIS RAIN WAS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW AREAS THAT ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND OVER
CHARLOTTE COUNTY. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE POCKETS DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z
SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR COVERAGE...EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND UPDATED
ZONES WITH THOSE CHANGES SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR REGION WIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH THE
REST OF THE ZONES REMAINING BELOW HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  77  65  78 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010232
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE
DUMPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MOST OF THIS RAIN WAS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW AREAS THAT ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND OVER
CHARLOTTE COUNTY. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE POCKETS DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z
SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR COVERAGE...EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND UPDATED
ZONES WITH THOSE CHANGES SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR REGION WIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH THE
REST OF THE ZONES REMAINING BELOW HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  77  65  78 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 282022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
LED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD. RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE JET
INTERACTION HELPED INTENSIFY THE SHOWERS...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH WET GROUND. THE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...WITH LESS RAIN OVERALL AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SOLAR
HEATING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHERN GOMEX. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER 586 DAM BY
TUESDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND
RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...CANNOT RULE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE DEEP RIDGING MIGHT BE TOO MUCH FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OVERCOME. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTER SUNSET...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT...REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND EVEN APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET. AN APPROACHING FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH POOR DISPERSION INDICES.
ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE EVEN
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  76  65  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 282022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
LED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD. RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE JET
INTERACTION HELPED INTENSIFY THE SHOWERS...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH WET GROUND. THE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...WITH LESS RAIN OVERALL AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SOLAR
HEATING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHERN GOMEX. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER 586 DAM BY
TUESDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND
RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...CANNOT RULE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE DEEP RIDGING MIGHT BE TOO MUCH FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OVERCOME. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTER SUNSET...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT...REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND EVEN APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET. AN APPROACHING FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH POOR DISPERSION INDICES.
ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE EVEN
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  76  65  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 282022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
LED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD. RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE JET
INTERACTION HELPED INTENSIFY THE SHOWERS...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH WET GROUND. THE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...WITH LESS RAIN OVERALL AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SOLAR
HEATING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHERN GOMEX. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER 586 DAM BY
TUESDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND
RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...CANNOT RULE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE DEEP RIDGING MIGHT BE TOO MUCH FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OVERCOME. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTER SUNSET...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT...REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND EVEN APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET. AN APPROACHING FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH POOR DISPERSION INDICES.
ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE EVEN
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  76  65  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 282022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
LED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD. RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE JET
INTERACTION HELPED INTENSIFY THE SHOWERS...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH WET GROUND. THE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...WITH LESS RAIN OVERALL AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SOLAR
HEATING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHERN GOMEX. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER 586 DAM BY
TUESDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND
RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...CANNOT RULE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE DEEP RIDGING MIGHT BE TOO MUCH FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OVERCOME. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTER SUNSET...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT...REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND EVEN APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET. AN APPROACHING FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH POOR DISPERSION INDICES.
ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE EVEN
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  76  65  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 281507
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
RESULTING FROM A JET INTERACTION ALOFT AND BROAD UPGLIDE ASCENT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH
RAIN HAS SO FAR BEEN CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN
NATURE.

OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO IMPACTING AREAS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN
VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT.
AFTER DARK...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN WITH LOW END MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH TOWARDS SARASOTA COUNTY AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
HAVE ENDED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM ELSEWHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  60  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  60  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  60  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  60  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  74  65 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 281507
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
RESULTING FROM A JET INTERACTION ALOFT AND BROAD UPGLIDE ASCENT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH
RAIN HAS SO FAR BEEN CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN
NATURE.

OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO IMPACTING AREAS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN
VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT.
AFTER DARK...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN WITH LOW END MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH TOWARDS SARASOTA COUNTY AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
HAVE ENDED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM ELSEWHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  60  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  60  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  60  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  60  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  74  65 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON








000
FXUS62 KTBW 281507
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
RESULTING FROM A JET INTERACTION ALOFT AND BROAD UPGLIDE ASCENT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH
RAIN HAS SO FAR BEEN CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN
NATURE.

OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO IMPACTING AREAS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN
VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT.
AFTER DARK...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN WITH LOW END MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH TOWARDS SARASOTA COUNTY AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
HAVE ENDED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM ELSEWHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  60  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  60  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  60  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  60  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  74  65 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 281507
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
RESULTING FROM A JET INTERACTION ALOFT AND BROAD UPGLIDE ASCENT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH
RAIN HAS SO FAR BEEN CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
4 CORRIDOR...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN
NATURE.

OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO IMPACTING AREAS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN
VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT.
AFTER DARK...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN WITH LOW END MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH TOWARDS SARASOTA COUNTY AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
HAVE ENDED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE THE NORM ELSEWHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  60  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  60  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  60  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  60  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  74  65 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON








000
FXUS62 KTBW 281030 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED TO DISCUSS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A POSITIVE
INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AS IT EVENTUALLY HELPS TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...OUR UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONSISTS OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP A
SHALLOW NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY REGIME IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF THE GRADIENT
AROUND STRONG 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...AND HELP DEVELOP/EXPAND A DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGION NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS UPGLIDE REGIME IS JUST STARING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER WITH A
WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS DECK AND A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS FOCUSED
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION WHERE WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 950-900MB...AND ANOTHER INVERSION AROUND 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THIS PATTERN
WILL ENSURE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
ALL.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE FIND NARROW BY FOCUSED ZONE OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO THE NATURE COAST OF
LEVY/DIXIE COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK UPGLIDE BEGINNING UP
OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL...THIS BAND OF RAIN IS MAINLY BEING FORCED
BY A APPROACH OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND A WELL DEFINED COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE RER (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION) OF
NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY EXITING UP THE EAST COAST IS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LER (LEFT EXIT REGION) OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND LINE UP
VERY WELL WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF RAIN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY (CHIEFLAND) AREA INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...WELCOME TO THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. WHILE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MARCH 20TH...
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS DEFINED AS DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...
WHICH MEANS TOMORROW IS THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING! IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE FEELING LIKE SPRING AROUND THESE PARTS BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NARROW BUT FOCUSED BAND OF RAIN FORCED BY THE COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY INTO THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT IT IS A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND SHOWER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND CHIEFLAND. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE THE
EXPANDING UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLUMN SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVING
WAY TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CERTAINLY
SOME AREA WILL END UP WITH CONDITIONS WARRANTING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PREDICT WITHIN SUCH A BROAD UPGLIDE
REGIME JUST WHERE THE BEST QPF FIELDS WILL DEVELOP. OVERALL THE BEST
UPGLIDE FIELDS COINCIDENT WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUGGEST THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR
INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION AT THIS EARLY
HOURS...AND THE LATEST ECS/MAV (ECMWF AND GFS MOS) SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT FIGHT GUIDANCE AND GO WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP THE POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THIS IS A SITUATION OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOW
QPF (RAINFALL AMOUNTS). THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
WITH QPF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND IN MANY CASES
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE UPGLIDE REGIME...AND DEFINED
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DISCOURAGE RAPID
DIURNAL TEMP RISES. THE BEST CHANCES AT ANY BREAKS OF SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BREAK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS FURTHER
NORTH WILL STRUGGLE MORE AS THE UPGLIDE ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY DRIER AIR TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WET BULB EFFECTS FROM THE SCT SHOWERS FALLING THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AND THINK
LOCATIONS UP TOWARD TAMPA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...AND UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

TONIGHT...
UPGLIDE REGIME ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME LEAVING JUST THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS WITH ANY
LIFT. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THIS OCCURS AND ALSO PIVOT NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY
END THE SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
UPGLIDE REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER STRATUS AND
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS SKIES. OVERNIGHT
THE RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS SHOWN BY
MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO ALLOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO
FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF OUR ZONES.

SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE LOOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA ALLOWING A MUCH WEAKER
GRADIENT AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER...IT IS STILL SHOW TO BE ENOUGH TO MIGRATE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING NORTH FROM THE CARRIBEAN
WITH OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE LOSS OF THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE
INVERSION AND ALLOW ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS TO BURN OFF...AND
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS
QUITE HIGH ON SUNDAY AND THE SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE THE 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. WE LOOK TO ALREADY HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
NEARBY TO FOCUS SOME MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOW ADD
CONVERGENCE AS THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUNDAY IS NOT GOING TO BE A WET DAY...AND
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD NOT BE DISCOURAGED. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A
20-30% POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL WIDELY SCT CONVECTION.
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THROUGH WED; A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN...AND DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO...SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST AND STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE AND GENERALLY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A RELAXED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ENOUGH WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF TO POSSIBLY FORM SOME SEA FOG AROUND
MID-WEEK.

THU-FRI; BY THU THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST...
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD  BY FRI AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES SOME.
THE CARIBBEAN-BAHAMAS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF-SOUTHEAST U.S. AREAS THU THEN THE EASTERN GULF AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FL BY FRI. WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THU AND FRI. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS BEHIND
AND IS DRIER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION
TO MORE AND MORE IFR CIGS WITH TIME. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RAISING
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE MIDDAY. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO BREAK OUT INTO VFR CIGS FOR A WHILE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN LOWER
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE
LOCAL GRADIENT TIGHT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN
BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY TURNING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WITH
TIME. AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE RISK LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
REGION-WIDE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOW KEEPING LDSI VALUES ON
THE LOW SIDE...DESPITE STEADY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  50  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  50  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  75  65 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 281030 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED TO DISCUSS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A POSITIVE
INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AS IT EVENTUALLY HELPS TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...OUR UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONSISTS OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP A
SHALLOW NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY REGIME IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF THE GRADIENT
AROUND STRONG 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...AND HELP DEVELOP/EXPAND A DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGION NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS UPGLIDE REGIME IS JUST STARING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER WITH A
WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS DECK AND A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS FOCUSED
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION WHERE WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 950-900MB...AND ANOTHER INVERSION AROUND 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THIS PATTERN
WILL ENSURE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
ALL.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE FIND NARROW BY FOCUSED ZONE OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO THE NATURE COAST OF
LEVY/DIXIE COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK UPGLIDE BEGINNING UP
OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL...THIS BAND OF RAIN IS MAINLY BEING FORCED
BY A APPROACH OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND A WELL DEFINED COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE RER (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION) OF
NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY EXITING UP THE EAST COAST IS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LER (LEFT EXIT REGION) OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND LINE UP
VERY WELL WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF RAIN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY (CHIEFLAND) AREA INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...WELCOME TO THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. WHILE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MARCH 20TH...
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS DEFINED AS DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...
WHICH MEANS TOMORROW IS THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING! IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE FEELING LIKE SPRING AROUND THESE PARTS BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NARROW BUT FOCUSED BAND OF RAIN FORCED BY THE COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY INTO THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT IT IS A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND SHOWER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND CHIEFLAND. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE THE
EXPANDING UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLUMN SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVING
WAY TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CERTAINLY
SOME AREA WILL END UP WITH CONDITIONS WARRANTING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PREDICT WITHIN SUCH A BROAD UPGLIDE
REGIME JUST WHERE THE BEST QPF FIELDS WILL DEVELOP. OVERALL THE BEST
UPGLIDE FIELDS COINCIDENT WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUGGEST THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR
INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION AT THIS EARLY
HOURS...AND THE LATEST ECS/MAV (ECMWF AND GFS MOS) SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT FIGHT GUIDANCE AND GO WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP THE POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THIS IS A SITUATION OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOW
QPF (RAINFALL AMOUNTS). THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
WITH QPF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND IN MANY CASES
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE UPGLIDE REGIME...AND DEFINED
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DISCOURAGE RAPID
DIURNAL TEMP RISES. THE BEST CHANCES AT ANY BREAKS OF SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BREAK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS FURTHER
NORTH WILL STRUGGLE MORE AS THE UPGLIDE ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY DRIER AIR TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WET BULB EFFECTS FROM THE SCT SHOWERS FALLING THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AND THINK
LOCATIONS UP TOWARD TAMPA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...AND UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

TONIGHT...
UPGLIDE REGIME ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME LEAVING JUST THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS WITH ANY
LIFT. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THIS OCCURS AND ALSO PIVOT NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY
END THE SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
UPGLIDE REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER STRATUS AND
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS SKIES. OVERNIGHT
THE RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS SHOWN BY
MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO ALLOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO
FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF OUR ZONES.

SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE LOOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA ALLOWING A MUCH WEAKER
GRADIENT AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER...IT IS STILL SHOW TO BE ENOUGH TO MIGRATE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING NORTH FROM THE CARRIBEAN
WITH OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE LOSS OF THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE
INVERSION AND ALLOW ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS TO BURN OFF...AND
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS
QUITE HIGH ON SUNDAY AND THE SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE THE 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. WE LOOK TO ALREADY HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
NEARBY TO FOCUS SOME MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOW ADD
CONVERGENCE AS THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUNDAY IS NOT GOING TO BE A WET DAY...AND
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD NOT BE DISCOURAGED. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A
20-30% POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL WIDELY SCT CONVECTION.
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THROUGH WED; A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN...AND DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO...SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST AND STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE AND GENERALLY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A RELAXED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ENOUGH WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF TO POSSIBLY FORM SOME SEA FOG AROUND
MID-WEEK.

THU-FRI; BY THU THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST...
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD  BY FRI AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES SOME.
THE CARIBBEAN-BAHAMAS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF-SOUTHEAST U.S. AREAS THU THEN THE EASTERN GULF AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FL BY FRI. WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THU AND FRI. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS BEHIND
AND IS DRIER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION
TO MORE AND MORE IFR CIGS WITH TIME. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RAISING
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE MIDDAY. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO BREAK OUT INTO VFR CIGS FOR A WHILE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN LOWER
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE
LOCAL GRADIENT TIGHT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN
BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY TURNING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WITH
TIME. AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE RISK LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
REGION-WIDE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOW KEEPING LDSI VALUES ON
THE LOW SIDE...DESPITE STEADY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  50  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  50  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  75  65 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE








000
FXUS62 KTBW 281030 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED TO DISCUSS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A POSITIVE
INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AS IT EVENTUALLY HELPS TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...OUR UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONSISTS OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP A
SHALLOW NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY REGIME IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF THE GRADIENT
AROUND STRONG 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...AND HELP DEVELOP/EXPAND A DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGION NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS UPGLIDE REGIME IS JUST STARING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER WITH A
WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS DECK AND A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS FOCUSED
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION WHERE WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 950-900MB...AND ANOTHER INVERSION AROUND 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THIS PATTERN
WILL ENSURE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
ALL.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE FIND NARROW BY FOCUSED ZONE OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO THE NATURE COAST OF
LEVY/DIXIE COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK UPGLIDE BEGINNING UP
OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL...THIS BAND OF RAIN IS MAINLY BEING FORCED
BY A APPROACH OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND A WELL DEFINED COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE RER (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION) OF
NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY EXITING UP THE EAST COAST IS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LER (LEFT EXIT REGION) OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND LINE UP
VERY WELL WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF RAIN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY (CHIEFLAND) AREA INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...WELCOME TO THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. WHILE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MARCH 20TH...
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS DEFINED AS DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...
WHICH MEANS TOMORROW IS THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING! IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE FEELING LIKE SPRING AROUND THESE PARTS BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NARROW BUT FOCUSED BAND OF RAIN FORCED BY THE COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY INTO THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT IT IS A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND SHOWER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND CHIEFLAND. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE THE
EXPANDING UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLUMN SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVING
WAY TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CERTAINLY
SOME AREA WILL END UP WITH CONDITIONS WARRANTING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PREDICT WITHIN SUCH A BROAD UPGLIDE
REGIME JUST WHERE THE BEST QPF FIELDS WILL DEVELOP. OVERALL THE BEST
UPGLIDE FIELDS COINCIDENT WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUGGEST THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR
INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION AT THIS EARLY
HOURS...AND THE LATEST ECS/MAV (ECMWF AND GFS MOS) SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT FIGHT GUIDANCE AND GO WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP THE POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THIS IS A SITUATION OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOW
QPF (RAINFALL AMOUNTS). THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
WITH QPF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND IN MANY CASES
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE UPGLIDE REGIME...AND DEFINED
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DISCOURAGE RAPID
DIURNAL TEMP RISES. THE BEST CHANCES AT ANY BREAKS OF SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BREAK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS FURTHER
NORTH WILL STRUGGLE MORE AS THE UPGLIDE ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY DRIER AIR TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WET BULB EFFECTS FROM THE SCT SHOWERS FALLING THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AND THINK
LOCATIONS UP TOWARD TAMPA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...AND UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

TONIGHT...
UPGLIDE REGIME ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME LEAVING JUST THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS WITH ANY
LIFT. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THIS OCCURS AND ALSO PIVOT NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY
END THE SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
UPGLIDE REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER STRATUS AND
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS SKIES. OVERNIGHT
THE RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS SHOWN BY
MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO ALLOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO
FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF OUR ZONES.

SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE LOOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA ALLOWING A MUCH WEAKER
GRADIENT AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER...IT IS STILL SHOW TO BE ENOUGH TO MIGRATE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING NORTH FROM THE CARRIBEAN
WITH OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE LOSS OF THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE
INVERSION AND ALLOW ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS TO BURN OFF...AND
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS
QUITE HIGH ON SUNDAY AND THE SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE THE 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. WE LOOK TO ALREADY HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
NEARBY TO FOCUS SOME MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOW ADD
CONVERGENCE AS THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUNDAY IS NOT GOING TO BE A WET DAY...AND
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD NOT BE DISCOURAGED. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A
20-30% POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL WIDELY SCT CONVECTION.
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THROUGH WED; A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN...AND DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO...SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST AND STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE AND GENERALLY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A RELAXED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ENOUGH WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF TO POSSIBLY FORM SOME SEA FOG AROUND
MID-WEEK.

THU-FRI; BY THU THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST...
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD  BY FRI AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES SOME.
THE CARIBBEAN-BAHAMAS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF-SOUTHEAST U.S. AREAS THU THEN THE EASTERN GULF AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FL BY FRI. WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THU AND FRI. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS BEHIND
AND IS DRIER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION
TO MORE AND MORE IFR CIGS WITH TIME. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RAISING
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE MIDDAY. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO BREAK OUT INTO VFR CIGS FOR A WHILE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN LOWER
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE
LOCAL GRADIENT TIGHT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN
BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY TURNING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WITH
TIME. AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE RISK LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
REGION-WIDE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOW KEEPING LDSI VALUES ON
THE LOW SIDE...DESPITE STEADY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  50  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  50  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  75  65 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 281030 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED TO DISCUSS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A POSITIVE
INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AS IT EVENTUALLY HELPS TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...OUR UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONSISTS OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP A
SHALLOW NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY REGIME IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF THE GRADIENT
AROUND STRONG 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...AND HELP DEVELOP/EXPAND A DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGION NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS UPGLIDE REGIME IS JUST STARING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER WITH A
WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS DECK AND A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS FOCUSED
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION WHERE WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 950-900MB...AND ANOTHER INVERSION AROUND 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THIS PATTERN
WILL ENSURE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
ALL.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE FIND NARROW BY FOCUSED ZONE OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO THE NATURE COAST OF
LEVY/DIXIE COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK UPGLIDE BEGINNING UP
OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL...THIS BAND OF RAIN IS MAINLY BEING FORCED
BY A APPROACH OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND A WELL DEFINED COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE RER (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION) OF
NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY EXITING UP THE EAST COAST IS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LER (LEFT EXIT REGION) OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND LINE UP
VERY WELL WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF RAIN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY (CHIEFLAND) AREA INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...WELCOME TO THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. WHILE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MARCH 20TH...
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS DEFINED AS DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...
WHICH MEANS TOMORROW IS THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING! IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE FEELING LIKE SPRING AROUND THESE PARTS BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NARROW BUT FOCUSED BAND OF RAIN FORCED BY THE COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY INTO THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT IT IS A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND SHOWER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND CHIEFLAND. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE THE
EXPANDING UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLUMN SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVING
WAY TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CERTAINLY
SOME AREA WILL END UP WITH CONDITIONS WARRANTING LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PREDICT WITHIN SUCH A BROAD UPGLIDE
REGIME JUST WHERE THE BEST QPF FIELDS WILL DEVELOP. OVERALL THE BEST
UPGLIDE FIELDS COINCIDENT WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUGGEST THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR
INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION AT THIS EARLY
HOURS...AND THE LATEST ECS/MAV (ECMWF AND GFS MOS) SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT FIGHT GUIDANCE AND GO WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP THE POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THIS IS A SITUATION OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOW
QPF (RAINFALL AMOUNTS). THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
WITH QPF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND IN MANY CASES
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE UPGLIDE REGIME...AND DEFINED
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DISCOURAGE RAPID
DIURNAL TEMP RISES. THE BEST CHANCES AT ANY BREAKS OF SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BREAK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS FURTHER
NORTH WILL STRUGGLE MORE AS THE UPGLIDE ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY DRIER AIR TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WET BULB EFFECTS FROM THE SCT SHOWERS FALLING THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AND THINK
LOCATIONS UP TOWARD TAMPA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...AND UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

TONIGHT...
UPGLIDE REGIME ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME LEAVING JUST THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS WITH ANY
LIFT. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THIS OCCURS AND ALSO PIVOT NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY
END THE SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
UPGLIDE REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER STRATUS AND
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS SKIES. OVERNIGHT
THE RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS SHOWN BY
MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO ALLOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO
FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF OUR ZONES.

SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE LOOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA ALLOWING A MUCH WEAKER
GRADIENT AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER...IT IS STILL SHOW TO BE ENOUGH TO MIGRATE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING NORTH FROM THE CARRIBEAN
WITH OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE LOSS OF THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE
INVERSION AND ALLOW ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS TO BURN OFF...AND
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS
QUITE HIGH ON SUNDAY AND THE SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE THE 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. WE LOOK TO ALREADY HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
NEARBY TO FOCUS SOME MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOW ADD
CONVERGENCE AS THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUNDAY IS NOT GOING TO BE A WET DAY...AND
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD NOT BE DISCOURAGED. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A
20-30% POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL WIDELY SCT CONVECTION.
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THROUGH WED; A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN...AND DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO...SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST AND STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE AND GENERALLY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A RELAXED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ENOUGH WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF TO POSSIBLY FORM SOME SEA FOG AROUND
MID-WEEK.

THU-FRI; BY THU THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST...
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD  BY FRI AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES SOME.
THE CARIBBEAN-BAHAMAS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF-SOUTHEAST U.S. AREAS THU THEN THE EASTERN GULF AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FL BY FRI. WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THU AND FRI. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS BEHIND
AND IS DRIER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION
TO MORE AND MORE IFR CIGS WITH TIME. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RAISING
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE MIDDAY. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO BREAK OUT INTO VFR CIGS FOR A WHILE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN LOWER
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE
LOCAL GRADIENT TIGHT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN
BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY TURNING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WITH
TIME. AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE RISK LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
REGION-WIDE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOW KEEPING LDSI VALUES ON
THE LOW SIDE...DESPITE STEADY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  50  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  50  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  75  65 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE








000
FXUS62 KTBW 280904
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURRENTLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING A DEEPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A POSITIVE
INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AS IT EVENTUALLY HELPS TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER...OUR UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONSISTS OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP A
SHALLOW NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY REGIME IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF THE GRADIENT
AROUND STRONG 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...AND HELP DEVELOP/EXPAND A DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGION NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS UPGLIDE REGIME IS JUST STARING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER WITH A
WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS DECK AND A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS FOCUSED
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION WHERE WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 950-900MB...AND ANOTHER INVERSION AROUND 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THIS PATTERN
WILL ENSURE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
ALL.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE FIND NARROW BY FOCUSED ZONE OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA TO THE NATURE COAST OF
LEVY/DIXIE COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK UPGLIDE BEGINNING UP
OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL...THIS BAND OF RAIN IS MAINLY BEING FORCED
BY A APPROACH OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND A WELL DEFINED COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE RER (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION) OF
NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY EXITING UP THE EAST COAST IS COINCIDENT
WITH THE LER (LEFT EXIT REGION) OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND LINE UP
VERY WELL WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF RAIN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY (CHIEFLAND) AREA INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...WELCOME TO THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. WHILE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MARCH 20TH...
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS DEFINED AS DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...
WHICH MEANS TOMORROW IS THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING! IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE FEELING LIKE SPRING AROUND THESE PARTS BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NARROW BUT FOCUSED BAND OF RAIN FORCED BY THE COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY INTO THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT IT IS A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND SHOWER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS AROUND CHIEFLAND. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE THE
EXPANDING UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLUMN SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SPRINKLES GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CERTAINLY SOME AREA WILL END UP WITH
CONDITIONS WARRANTING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO
PREDICT WITHIN SUCH A BROAD UPGLIDE REGIME JUST WHERE THE BEST QPF
FIELDS WILL DEVELOP. OVERALL THE BEST UPGLIDE FIELDS COINCIDENT WITH
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUGGEST THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR INTERIOR ZONES. SLOWLY RAMP UP THE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING AREAS WELL INLAND AND
SOUTH OF I-4 TO GO LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE HAVE HIGH END CHANCE 45-55% POPS. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH QPF UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...AND IN MOST CASES UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE UPGLIDE
REGIME...AND DEFINED INVERSIONS WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND DISCOURAGE RAPID DIURNAL TEMP RISES. THE BEST CHANCES AT ANY
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN SOUTH OF SARASOTA...AND
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BREAK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR THESE SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPS FURTHER NORTH WILL STRUGGLE MORE AS THE UPGLIDE ONLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY
DRIER AIR TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WET BULB EFFECTS FROM THE SCT
SHOWERS FALLING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER SLOW THE
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND THINK LOCATIONS UP TOWARD TAMPA WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70...AND UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

TONIGHT...
UPGLIDE REGIME ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME LEAVING JUST THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS WITH ANY
LIFT. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THIS OCCURS AND ALSO PIVOT NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY
END THE SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
UPGLIDE REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER STRATUS AND
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDS SKIES. OVERNIGHT
THE RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS SHOWN BY
MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO ALLOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO
FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF OUR ZONES.

SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE LOOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA ALLOWING A MUCH WEAKER
GRADIENT AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER...IT IS STILL SHOW TO BE ENOUGH TO MIGRATE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING NORTH FROM THE CARRIBEAN
WITH OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE LOSS OF THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE
INVERSION AND ALLOW ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS TO BURN OFF...AND
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMP POTENTIAL IS
QUITE HIGH ON SUNDAY AND THE SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE THE 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. WE LOOK TO ALREADY HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
NEARBY TO FOCUS SOME MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOW ADD
CONVERGENCE AS THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUNDAY IS NOT GOING TO BE A WET DAY...AND
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD NOT BE DISCOURAGED. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A
20-30% POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL WIDELY SCT CONVECTION.
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THROUGH WED; A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN...AND DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO...SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST AND STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE AND GENERALLY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A RELAXED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ENOUGH WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF TO POSSIBLY FORM SOME SEA FOG AROUND
MID-WEEK.

THU-FRI; BY THU THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST...
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD  BY FRI AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES SOME.
THE CARIBBEAN-BAHAMAS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF-SOUTHEAST U.S. AREAS THU THEN THE EASTERN GULF AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FL BY FRI. WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THU AND FRI. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS BEHIND
AND IS DRIER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION
TO MORE AND MORE IFR CIGS WITH TIME. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RAISING
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE MIDDAY. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO BREAK OUT INTO VFR CIGS FOR A WHILE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN LOWER
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE
LOCAL GRADIENT TIGHT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN
BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY TURNING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WITH
TIME. AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE RISK LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
REGION-WIDE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOW KEEPING LDSI VALUES ON
THE LOW SIDE...DESPITE STEADY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  62  77  64 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  78  66  83  65 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  72  63  80  64 /  60  40  30  20
SRQ  72  63  78  63 /  50  20  20  20
BKV  69  60  78  59 /  50  40  30  10
SPG  69  64  75  65 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING






000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING






000
FXUS62 KTBW 271425
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SOON BECOME
STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH STRONG (1041MB) AN
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT (5-6MB) BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

REVIEW OF 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERRIDING THE LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE-925MB) NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION WEAK UPGLIDE IS
SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE DAY CONTINUES MODELS SHOW THE UPGLIDE
STRENGTHENING AND WORKING NORTHWARD SOME...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINTER HAVEN TO SARASOTA
FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MID 60S CENTRAL
ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO A
MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GOOD OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW WITH EVENING
SURGES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SOUTH AND SET UP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR TAMPA
BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING






000
FXUS62 KTBW 271425
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SOON BECOME
STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH STRONG (1041MB) AN
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT (5-6MB) BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

REVIEW OF 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERRIDING THE LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE-925MB) NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION WEAK UPGLIDE IS
SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE DAY CONTINUES MODELS SHOW THE UPGLIDE
STRENGTHENING AND WORKING NORTHWARD SOME...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINTER HAVEN TO SARASOTA
FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MID 60S CENTRAL
ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO A
MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GOOD OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW WITH EVENING
SURGES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SOUTH AND SET UP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR TAMPA
BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A RATHER CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY WET END
TO THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...WHICH INCLUDES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING
GENERALLY ZONAL...BUT SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH CENTER WITH A PRESSURE NEAR 1045MB WILL BE
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OUR SOUTH.

STARTING DOWN NEAR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUT OUR ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SETUP
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL DISPLACE THE
TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA DURING SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE WINDS
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER. THIS FEATURE ON ITS OWN WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LIGHT MODERATE SHOWERS.

NOW MOVING OUR WAY HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE...THE BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A LONG FETCH OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL OVER-RUN THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. WEAK UPGLIDE TODAY SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN THERE
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE OF THE OFF AND ON
NATURE.

ON SATURDAY...UPGLIDE INCREASES IN DEPTH AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH.
RAINFALL COULD BE STEADIER AND HEAVIER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF LIFT EXIST BETWEEN MODELS.
THE MORE SHALLOW SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN WILL MORE PREVALENT OVER OUR
SOUTHERN INLAND LOCATIONS. A STEADIER AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED DEEPER SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE GENERALLY
BROAD-BRUSHED 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS A BIT BETTER LATER TODAY...
OR CERTAINLY BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THESE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES PLAY OUT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ALIGNED
ABOVE A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH AN
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1035+
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR A BROAD LOW
LEVEL UPGLIDE REGIME TO BE IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON
SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
SHOWERS PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE FL
EAST COAST. AGAIN...THE SETUP IS NOT AS GOOD FOR THE SHOWERS AS
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN. BETTER CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SUNNY BREAKS TO OCCUR
SHOULD BE DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY...AND THE FURTHER
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING TO CLIMB BY
SUNDAY...BUT JUST HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN THE UPGLIDE REGIME. MOS CONSENSUS IS FOR 70S
NORTH OF I-4 AND LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO
BE NUDGED DOWN WITH FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY
ARE AT LEAST IN THE BALLPARK.

THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
CONTROL THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAKER GRADIENT
BUY THIS TIME...AND A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH
TIME. THE END RESULT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY DAY WITH A WEAK
ENOUGH GRADIENT TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE MAY SEE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...HOWEVER THIS IS A BIT FAR INTO THE
EXTENDED TO TRY AND PIN-POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS...AND ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING TO DETER OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATED TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THIS ENERGY AND DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND ALSO FASTEST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES A LESS EFFECTIVE JOB AT PHASING THIS ENERGY
AND KEEPS THE TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED AND OVERALL SLOWER. THE RESULT
OF THIS ACTION IS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND ALSO FOR THE PASSAGE TO BE LESS
SUBSTANTIAL. LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
MAJORITY TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND/OR SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LONG DURATION OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LIFTING WITH BREAKS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AND RIDGE BACK ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE
SEAS.

WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF TAMPA BAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER VALUES CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. WINDS OFFSHORE
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE. WILL
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR TODAY IN ALL WATERS EXCEPT TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WE MAY EVEN NEED A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  55  75  63 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  71  61  80  66 /  30  10  30  20
GIF  65  56  74  63 /  20  20  40  40
SRQ  67  57  77  64 /  20  10  30  20
BKV  65  53  72  60 /   0  20  30  40
SPG  65  58  73  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A RATHER CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY WET END
TO THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...WHICH INCLUDES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING
GENERALLY ZONAL...BUT SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH CENTER WITH A PRESSURE NEAR 1045MB WILL BE
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OUR SOUTH.

STARTING DOWN NEAR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUT OUR ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SETUP
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL DISPLACE THE
TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA DURING SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE WINDS
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER. THIS FEATURE ON ITS OWN WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LIGHT MODERATE SHOWERS.

NOW MOVING OUR WAY HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE...THE BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A LONG FETCH OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL OVER-RUN THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. WEAK UPGLIDE TODAY SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN THERE
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE OF THE OFF AND ON
NATURE.

ON SATURDAY...UPGLIDE INCREASES IN DEPTH AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH.
RAINFALL COULD BE STEADIER AND HEAVIER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF LIFT EXIST BETWEEN MODELS.
THE MORE SHALLOW SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN WILL MORE PREVALENT OVER OUR
SOUTHERN INLAND LOCATIONS. A STEADIER AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED DEEPER SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE GENERALLY
BROAD-BRUSHED 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS A BIT BETTER LATER TODAY...
OR CERTAINLY BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THESE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES PLAY OUT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ALIGNED
ABOVE A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH AN
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1035+
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR A BROAD LOW
LEVEL UPGLIDE REGIME TO BE IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON
SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
SHOWERS PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE FL
EAST COAST. AGAIN...THE SETUP IS NOT AS GOOD FOR THE SHOWERS AS
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN. BETTER CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SUNNY BREAKS TO OCCUR
SHOULD BE DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY...AND THE FURTHER
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING TO CLIMB BY
SUNDAY...BUT JUST HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN THE UPGLIDE REGIME. MOS CONSENSUS IS FOR 70S
NORTH OF I-4 AND LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO
BE NUDGED DOWN WITH FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY
ARE AT LEAST IN THE BALLPARK.

THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
CONTROL THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAKER GRADIENT
BUY THIS TIME...AND A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH
TIME. THE END RESULT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY DAY WITH A WEAK
ENOUGH GRADIENT TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE MAY SEE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...HOWEVER THIS IS A BIT FAR INTO THE
EXTENDED TO TRY AND PIN-POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS...AND ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING TO DETER OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATED TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THIS ENERGY AND DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND ALSO FASTEST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES A LESS EFFECTIVE JOB AT PHASING THIS ENERGY
AND KEEPS THE TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED AND OVERALL SLOWER. THE RESULT
OF THIS ACTION IS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND ALSO FOR THE PASSAGE TO BE LESS
SUBSTANTIAL. LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
MAJORITY TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND/OR SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LONG DURATION OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LIFTING WITH BREAKS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AND RIDGE BACK ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE
SEAS.

WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF TAMPA BAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER VALUES CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. WINDS OFFSHORE
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE. WILL
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR TODAY IN ALL WATERS EXCEPT TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WE MAY EVEN NEED A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  55  75  63 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  71  61  80  66 /  30  10  30  20
GIF  65  56  74  63 /  20  20  40  40
SRQ  67  57  77  64 /  20  10  30  20
BKV  65  53  72  60 /   0  20  30  40
SPG  65  58  73  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 270206
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AND SURGE A BIT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE AND THE SEA SWELLS DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL REMOVE THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR ALL ZONES...FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LEE COUNTY...AND REMOVE THE
HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
TERMINALS GOING IFR GENERALLY 09-14Z. THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AFTER 15Z TO VFR WITH GENERALLY N/NE WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE
NEARSHORE ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE DIMINISHING...AND WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270206
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AND SURGE A BIT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE AND THE SEA SWELLS DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL REMOVE THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR ALL ZONES...FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LEE COUNTY...AND REMOVE THE
HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
TERMINALS GOING IFR GENERALLY 09-14Z. THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AFTER 15Z TO VFR WITH GENERALLY N/NE WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE
NEARSHORE ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE DIMINISHING...AND WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







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