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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010808
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
408 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
LEADING EDGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS IN LEVY COUNTY NOW AND
PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST. A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE BAND...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

THE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY GOING TO RISE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...GETTING NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 60S NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY...PERHAPS MID 60S AROUND TAMPA BAY...AND WITH A LITTLE
LUCK...NEAR 70 AROUND FORT MYERS. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WHICH WILL MAKE BOATING ON AREA LAKES HAZARDOUS.
FOR THOSE BRAVE ENOUGH TO VISIT THE BEACHES TODAY...HIGH SURF AND
VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS...EVEN FOR STRONG SWIMMERS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AFTER SUNSET...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND LOW TO MIDDLE 40S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE MORE PLEASANT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET
AND DRY IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR A POTENTIAL TOUCH OF EARLY SEASON FROST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NATURE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALLOWING LONGWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF/DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. WE HERE IN FLORIDA WILL SEE OUR HEIGHTS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE WEEKEND TROUGH.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONG 1030MB
CONTINENTAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMING CENTERED
OVER GA/SC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS POSITION IS NOT IDEAL FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA TO SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER...IT IS
POSITIONED CLOSE ENOUGH TO PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THAT WE DO
BELIEVE A PERIOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER DE-COUPLING (FOR A LEAST A FEW
HOURS) LEADING UP TO DAWN MONDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD.
DUE TO THE NOT IDEAL POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER...HAVE NOT GONE
WITH ANY LOWER 30S AT THIS TIME...BUT DO ALLOW COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO SEE 34-35 DEGREES AROUND DAWN.
WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND 30...A TOUCH OF PATCHY FROST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR MORE SHELTERED AREA...AND BETTER RADIATORS
SUCH AS METAL CAR ROOFS ETC. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE EARLY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEIR VEGETATION
SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE PATCHY FROST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...STACKED RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BOTH IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS. NO FURTHER FROST CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LATE IN THE WEEK...A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGHING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TAKING A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. A BRIEF SPRINKLE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT PASSES NORTH OF OUR REGION THIS
TIME AROUND...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP SHOWER MENTION AT 10% OR LESS...AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST WORDING. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE CAA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND THIS
LATE WEEK FRONT. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP THE FORECAST MORE SEASONABLE IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE WINDS. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT TAF SITES EARLY...BUT CIG AND VIS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE. CONSIDERED A GALE WARNING...BUT BELIEVE GUSTS OVER
34 KNOTS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY FREQUENT. STILL...IT WILL NOT BE A
GOOD DAY TO BE IN A SMALL CRAFT IN THE EASTERN GULF.

AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BY
MONDAY WE WILL SEE MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 5 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE EVENING SURGES BRING WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS FINALLY DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL HUMIDITIES...VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
SPREADING OF WILD FIRES TODAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

HUMIDITIES WILL BE EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH SO NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  46  69  47 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  70  46  71  51 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  64  43  67  49 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  66  48  70  48 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  63  38  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  65  54  68  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-
     DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND
     CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
     INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010138
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
W/NW WINDS ARE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT ON ITS WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WITH THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER/DRIER TEMPERATURES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISE IN
NW WINDS AND SEAS CAUSING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS OVER THE PENINSULA INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NATURE COAST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.  SEAS WILL BUILD AND
RUN GENERALLY 8 TO 12 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SINK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST.  RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RUN CLOSE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY WITH 20FT WINDS GREATER THAN 15
KNOTS EXPECTED. ERC VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 27 FOR SEVERAL ZONES
ACROSS OUR AREA. RH VALUES ARE THE LARGEST VARIABLE WITH THIS
FORECAST AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HAVE HELD OFF ON RAISING A RFW THIS EVENING AS THE EXACT EXPANSE
OF THE DRY AIR IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT NORTHERN AND INLAND
AREAS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT. THEN FOR
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES
MAY BE IN PLACE TO NECESSITATE ANOTHER RFW. WILL BE MONITORING
THOSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 010138
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
W/NW WINDS ARE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT ON ITS WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WITH THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER/DRIER TEMPERATURES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISE IN
NW WINDS AND SEAS CAUSING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS OVER THE PENINSULA INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NATURE COAST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.  SEAS WILL BUILD AND
RUN GENERALLY 8 TO 12 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SINK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST.  RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RUN CLOSE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY WITH 20FT WINDS GREATER THAN 15
KNOTS EXPECTED. ERC VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 27 FOR SEVERAL ZONES
ACROSS OUR AREA. RH VALUES ARE THE LARGEST VARIABLE WITH THIS
FORECAST AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HAVE HELD OFF ON RAISING A RFW THIS EVENING AS THE EXACT EXPANSE
OF THE DRY AIR IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT NORTHERN AND INLAND
AREAS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT. THEN FOR
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES
MAY BE IN PLACE TO NECESSITATE ANOTHER RFW. WILL BE MONITORING
THOSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311935
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...WINDY AND COOLER BEGINNING TO NOVEMBER FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AS THE COOL AIR MASS FILTERS IN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE CRISP AND FITTING OF AUTUMN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER. OCTOBER WILL END
RELATIVELY QUIET...THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE MUTED TONIGHT THAN SUGGESTED BY
GUIDANCE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE
COLDER AIR MASS AND THE STILL WARM GULF WATERS WILL ALLOW SOME OF
THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE THAT REMAINS TO CREATE SEASONAL
STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HELP KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT AT BAY. THE ONLY OTHER
OPTION FOR COOLING...COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE
PEAKING TONIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING FLOW AFTER DARK IN THE USUAL COOL
SPOTS. WENT A TAD ABOVE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA
BAY AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY THANKS TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EXITING REINFORCING FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY AND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH. REFERENCE LATEST LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PRESENT A HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT
RISK ALONG THE COAST...REFERENCE THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THOSE THREATS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH A MINIMAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV...MET...AND
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY MORNING ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR NATURE COAST...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. LOW DEW POINTS
AND AT LEAST LIGHT BREEZES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SO ITS UNLIKELY
ANY PART OF OUR AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.

BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON OUR COLD AIRMASS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND ALLOW MOST AREAS TO AT LEAST APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE
NATURE COAST WILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP TO TAKE PLACE WITH MID 70S IN PLACE MONDAY...NEAR 80
TUESDAY...THEN LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM 2500 TO 4000 FT
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.  SEAS WILL BUILD AND
RUN GENERALLY 8 TO 12 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SINK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST.  RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RUN CLOSE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CREATE HIGH DISPERSION INDEX
VALUES. SOME AREAS WILL SEE CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SHORT-NOTICE RED FLAG
WARNINGS DEPENDING ON THE ERC VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  65  46  70 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  61  71  47  72 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  53  66  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  59  67  48  71 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  44  63  37  68 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  62  66  54  69 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR
     AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 311322 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVED TRENDS...THOUGH THE
ZONE FORECAST CAPTURES THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING MAKING FURTHER CHANGES AS
NEEDED.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT BEHIND IT WILL BRING THE CRISP TASTE OF
AUTUMN TO THE AREA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION AROUND SW
FLORIDA TAF SITES COULD BRING BOUTS OF MVFR TO PGD...FMY...AND RSW
THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PRODUCING SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING THE REAL PUSH OF COLDER DRIER AIR. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW PERSISTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  58  66  46 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  81  61  71  47 /  30   0  10   0
GIF  79  57  66  44 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  78  62  67  48 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  77  49  64  37 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  76  63  67  54 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR
     AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL








000
FXUS62 KTBW 310820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HELPING TO DRIVE MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TODAY THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING BRINGING THE THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP ON BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH SOME COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTH. ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP WITH READINGS STRUGGLING INTO THE LOWER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
SEEM VERY CHILLY AFTER THE 80S OF THE LAST WEEK...BUT THEY SHOULD
STILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR
NOVEMBER 1ST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY MORNING ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR NATURE COAST...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. LOW DEW POINTS
AND AT LEAST LIGHT BREEZES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SO ITS UNLIKELY
ANY PART OF OUR AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.

BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON OUR COLD AIRMASS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND ALLOW MOST AREAS TO AT LEAST APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE
NATURE COAST WILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP TO TAKE PLACE WITH MID 70S IN PLACE MONDAY...NEAR 80
TUESDAY...THEN LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
SARASOTA SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS...DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA TOWARD EVENING. A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE
REAL PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND DIMINISH SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED SATURDAY OVER INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE NATURE COAST SOUTH INTO POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES AND
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
15 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY...BUT ERC VALUES IN THE CRITICAL RH AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SO NO RED FLAG WARNINGS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 15 MPH ON
SUNDAY AND UNLESS ERC VALUES CLIMB A BUNCH WE SHOULD STAY BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  58  66  46 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  81  61  71  47 /  20   0  10   0
GIF  79  57  66  44 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  78  62  67  48 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  77  49  64  37 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  76  63  67  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO
     4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR
     AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 310052
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
852 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
ALOFT - A TROUGH REACHED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND A TROUGH  FROM
NORTHEAST QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATED THE EASTERN CONUS.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SPRAWLED DOWN TO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A FRONT WAS STRUNG ACROSS FL FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

LATEST MESO-SCALE ANALYSIS LOCATED THE SOME WHAT DIFFUSE FRONT JUST
PUSHING INTO LEVY COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF TONIGHT THEN EXIT LEE COUNTY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES AND GENERALLY LOW RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY SHOWERS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF WATERS. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG BUT TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MAY MAKE SOME
EARLY EVENING TWEAKS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST TREND IS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE. FRONT WILL EASE SOUTHWARD OVER THE TERMINALS
OVER NIGHT WITH BKN MID CLOUDS...VCNTY SHRA...LIMITED BR AT LAL
AND PGD...AND WIND BECOMING NORTH AND NW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AFT 12Z WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AND NW WINDS 9-13KT.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENTLY THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ENDING SOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND BECOME BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE REAL PUSH OF
COOLER DRIER AIR WITH STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY AND OR GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  59  67 /  30   0   0   0
FMY  68  82  61  73 /  20  10   0   0
GIF  64  79  57  66 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  66  77  60  70 /  30  10   0  10
BKV  57  76  49  64 /  20   0   0   0
SPG  68  76  63  68 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD










000
FXUS62 KTBW 301958
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS INTO THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY...PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE
GULF...HAS PUSHED CLOSER TO THE SUNCOAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DUE TO THE CONVECTION HAS MEANDERED OVER THE PENINSULA AND HAS
HELPED LOWER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LIMITING SOME OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...THOUGH
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY
THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...BUT THE MORE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL BE BEHIND THE NEXT
REINFORCING FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PREFERRED A BLEND OF MAV/ECMWF/MET MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VERY DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY ITSELF IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
CONTINUE TO FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
CLIMB SLOWLY INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE 15
TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 40S. THERE
IS NO RISK OF FROST SINCE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE QUITE LOW. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
2ND. THE RECORD AT TAMPA IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 1993. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST LOW FOR TAMPA IS AROUND 47.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN BY MONDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
WITH TIME THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK WARM UP BY MID-WEEK. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY AROUND 70...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THAT
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS...SO WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
COULD BRING LAL AND PGD TO MVFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND TURN NW ON FRIDAY. SOME
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM TPA SOUTHWARD...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE COMING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE ENDING SOON
AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE REAL PUSH OF
COOLER DRIER AIR WITH STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY AND OR GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AND LIGHTEN SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND COULD PRESENT A NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS BASED
OFF ERC VALUES. OTHER THAN SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ON
FRIDAY MORNING...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  59  67 /  30   0   0   0
FMY  68  81  61  73 /  30  10   0   0
GIF  64  79  57  66 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  66  77  60  70 /  30  10   0  10
BKV  57  76  48  64 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  69  76  63  68 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD







000
FXUS62 KTBW 301432 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN THE GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THAT ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY A
BOUNDARY SITTING OFFSHORE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING PEAKS.
MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN MOST GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON COULD ALSO HELP CREATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY AND ISSUED UPDATED ZONES WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING...POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEA BREEZE...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. HAVE UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN TERMS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING MAY
STRUGGLE WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING/S OFFSHORE
CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z TBW SOUNDING OFFERED A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.34
INCHES...WITH SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG IF SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT IS ABLE TO MOVE IN WITH
THE TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE DIURNAL HEATING AT THE SURFACE AND
COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL IN THEIR UPDATED DAY 1 OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE FOCUS WOULD BE MORE IN NORTHERN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHERE BETTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL...SEVERE STORM CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR MAINLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR AND GUSTY VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS WITH
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING
WHEN THE WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE REAL PUSH OF
COOLER DRIER AIR WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
DIMINISH SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  65  79  59 /  20  20  10   0
FMY  86  67  81  61 /  20  20  20   0
GIF  85  65  79  57 /  30  20  10   0
SRQ  83  65  79  60 /  20  20  10   0
BKV  84  55  78  48 /  30  20   0   0
SPG  83  70  77  63 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300814
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES. ALSO THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO PRECEDE THIS FRONT WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME CONCENTRATED BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LAND. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS/SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM REMAINING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VERY DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY ITSELF IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
CONTINUE TO FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
CLIMB SLOWLY INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE 15
TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 40S. THERE
IS NO RISK OF FROST SINCE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE QUITE LOW. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
2ND. THE RECORD AT TAMPA IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 1993. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST LOW FOR TAMPA IS AROUND 47.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN BY MONDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
WITH TIME THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK WARM UP BY MID-WEEK. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY AROUND 70...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THAT
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS...SO WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING THE REAL PUSH
OF COOLER DRIER AIR WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND DIMINISH SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SEVERAL HOURS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
IN A FEW COUNTIES LIKE PINELLAS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...
THEN WE COULD SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND UNLESS ERC VALUES CLIMB A
BUNCH WE SHOULD STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  65  79  59 /  20  20  10   0
FMY  86  67  81  61 /  10  20  20   0
GIF  85  65  79  57 /  30  20  10   0
SRQ  83  65  79  60 /  20  20  10   0
BKV  84  55  78  49 /  30  20   0   0
SPG  83  70  77  63 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON







000
FXUS62 KTBW 300100
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
THE WESTERN CONUS WAS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATED THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A FRONT STRETCHED FROM
NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
COAST...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

CURRENTLY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER
INCREASED CLOUDS WERE TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
AND NORTH FL. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE AREA IS FROM A
FEW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE...AROUND 60 NM. OTHER SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THE LOOP CURRENT...AROUND 150 NM OFFSHORE TAMPA BAY...AND IN THE
FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTH GA...WITH THE FRONT.

THE FRONT EASES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SHOWERS ON THE
GULF AND INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE NATURE COAST. IN RESPONSE THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT TO CALM LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PERMIT SOME LATE NIGHT
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG...DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. CURRENT
FORECASTS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z-31/00Z. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS...OCNL BKN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFT 09Z...LAL/PGD/
FMY/RSW WILL SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBY. APPROACHING FRONT COULD
SLIDE NOCTURNAL GULF SHOWERS INTO TPA/PIE/SRQ AFT 15Z. AFT 18Z
EXPECT VCNTY TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN MID/HIGH DECK AND
WINDS BECOMING WEST OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS IS
BEGINNING TO BE SQUEEZED OUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
PASS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE STATE THURSDAY...AND BE LOCATED NEAR
MIAMI FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THEN WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY HEADLINES LIKELY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD









000
FXUS62 KTBW 291844
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A CONVERGENT LINE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND
FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION OF FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER LAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THIS ISN/T IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITY GUIDANCE IS HITTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THE HARDEST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN POLK AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...SO
WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG HERE. ELSEWHERE...WILL MENTION PATCHY
FOG INLAND FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AREN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR THUNDER HOWEVER...DON/T LOOK
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
OVERALL...WILL SHOW POPS RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK THEN SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT LEADING TO A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ ALTOCUMULUS.

THE MEX MOS HAS CONTINUED TO COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL NOT AS LOW AS THE ECMWF MOS NUMBERS ARE INDICATING. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL NUMBERS...BUT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
MEAN NUMBERS. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT KLAL...KPGD...AND
KRSW. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS IS BEGINNING
TO BE SQUEEZED OUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENTLY WARM AIR AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS LAND BREEZE
REMAINS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE PANHANDLE AND PASS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE STATE
THURSDAY...AND BE LOCATED NEAR MIAMI FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THEN WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY HEADLINES LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...AS LONG AS ERC
VALUES ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH.

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS FROM EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN
POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SOUTH OF
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RATHER LOCALIZED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  83  66  81 /  10  30  20  10
FMY  66  85  67  83 /   0  20  20  20
GIF  66  84  64  81 /   0  40  20  20
SRQ  66  83  65  81 /  10  20  20  20
BKV  60  83  60  80 /  10  30  20  10
SPG  71  82  65  80 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH







000
FXUS62 KTBW 291347
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENT LINE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR
TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD END BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIATES ALLOWING THE LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENT LINE TO DISSIPATE. OVER LAND AREAS...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE MORNING CAPPING INVERSION AROUND H8 SEEN IN THE
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING...RAIN FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
TURNING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. A COLD FRONT THAT
IS NOW OVER ALABAMA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
HEADLINES POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  69  82  66 /   0  10  20  20
FMY  87  66  85  67 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  86  65  84  64 /   0  10  30  20
SRQ  84  65  82  65 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  86  58  83  60 /   0  10  20  20
SPG  85  70  82  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH







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