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000
FXUS65 KTFX 301728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled for southern Gallatin
County including the West Yellowstone area as the fog has dissipated.

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period but ISOLD/SCT
SHRA and TS are forecast this afternoon and evening over the
mountains. Slight chance for a shower or storm to move close to KHLN
and KCTB, so mentioned VCTS between 22z-03z with main threat being
gusty erratic outflow winds. However, CB will mainly be anchored over
the higher terrain through the day. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled for southern Gallatin
County including the West Yellowstone area as the fog has dissipated.

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period but ISOLD/SCT
SHRA and TS are forecast this afternoon and evening over the
mountains. Slight chance for a shower or storm to move close to KHLN
and KCTB, so mentioned VCTS between 22z-03z with main threat being
gusty erratic outflow winds. However, CB will mainly be anchored over
the higher terrain through the day. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300936
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 300936
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 300504
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 300504
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291722
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 291536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 290942
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 290942
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 290500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 290500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290004
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 282036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 282036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281737
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing moisture associated with the southwest Monsoon has
brought mid level clouds into western and southwest Montana.
Scattered weak echos appear on composite radar reflectivity but
little or no precipitation would be expected to reach the ground at
this time. Precipitation may be possible later this afternoon with
scattered high-based thunderstorms along the Continental Divide and
over the mountains of southwest Montana. No changes made to the
inherited forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281737
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing moisture associated with the southwest Monsoon has
brought mid level clouds into western and southwest Montana.
Scattered weak echos appear on composite radar reflectivity but
little or no precipitation would be expected to reach the ground at
this time. Precipitation may be possible later this afternoon with
scattered high-based thunderstorms along the Continental Divide and
over the mountains of southwest Montana. No changes made to the
inherited forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 281527
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
927 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...

Increasing moisture associated with the southwest Monsoon has
brought mid level clouds into western and southwest Montana.
Scattered weak echos appear on composite radar reflectivity but
little or no precipitation would be expected to reach the ground
at this time. Precipitation may be possible later this afternoon
with scattered high-based thunderstorms along the Continental
Divide and over the mountains of southwest Montana. No changes
made to the inherited forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
Light easterly winds are expected today along with mainly dry
conditions. High and mid-level clouds will increase today as a weak
upper-level disturbance moves through the area. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the higher terrain near KHLN and KBZN as
well as the Rocky Mountain Front, however forecast confidence is low
that a thunderstorm will impact the terminals. Given the
uncertainty, have added a PROB30 for KBZN and KHLN this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281527
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
927 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...

Increasing moisture associated with the southwest Monsoon has
brought mid level clouds into western and southwest Montana.
Scattered weak echos appear on composite radar reflectivity but
little or no precipitation would be expected to reach the ground
at this time. Precipitation may be possible later this afternoon
with scattered high-based thunderstorms along the Continental
Divide and over the mountains of southwest Montana. No changes
made to the inherited forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
Light easterly winds are expected today along with mainly dry
conditions. High and mid-level clouds will increase today as a weak
upper-level disturbance moves through the area. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the higher terrain near KHLN and KBZN as
well as the Rocky Mountain Front, however forecast confidence is low
that a thunderstorm will impact the terminals. Given the
uncertainty, have added a PROB30 for KBZN and KHLN this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281120
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
Light easterly winds are expected today along with mainly dry
conditions. High and mid-level clouds will increase today as a weak
upper-level disturbance moves through the area. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the higher terrain near KHLN and KBZN as
well as the Rocky Mountain Front, however forecast confidence is low
that a thunderstorm will impact the terminals. Given the
uncertainty, have added a PROB30 for KBZN and KHLN this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 281120
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
Light easterly winds are expected today along with mainly dry
conditions. High and mid-level clouds will increase today as a weak
upper-level disturbance moves through the area. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the higher terrain near KHLN and KBZN as
well as the Rocky Mountain Front, however forecast confidence is low
that a thunderstorm will impact the terminals. Given the
uncertainty, have added a PROB30 for KBZN and KHLN this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 280939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0428Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0428Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280428
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1028 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
No forecast updates tonight. Should be mostly clear with light
winds. Clouds increase from the west through the night as monsoonal
moisture moves into the region. This will bring a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm to Southwest Montana Monday afternoon.

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the second half of the work week.
With a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are in
place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front for
later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does not
look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do develop
before Friday will likely not be producing very significant amounts
of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0428Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 280252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
No forecast updates tonight. Should be mostly clear with light
winds. Clouds increase from the west through the night as monsoonal
moisture moves into the region. This will bring a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm to Southwest Montana Monday afternoon.

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the second half of the work week.
With a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are in
place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front for
later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does not
look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do develop
before Friday will likely not be producing very significant amounts
of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2310Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
No forecast updates tonight. Should be mostly clear with light
winds. Clouds increase from the west through the night as monsoonal
moisture moves into the region. This will bring a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm to Southwest Montana Monday afternoon.

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the second half of the work week.
With a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are in
place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front for
later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does not
look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do develop
before Friday will likely not be producing very significant amounts
of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2310Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the 2nd half of the work week. With
a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are
in place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front
for later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does
not look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do
develop before Friday will likely not be producing very significant
amounts of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2310Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 272311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the 2nd half of the work week. With
a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are
in place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front
for later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does
not look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do
develop before Friday will likely not be producing very significant
amounts of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2310Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
Southwest Montana and drift north through the period. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 272031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the 2nd half of the work week. With
a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are
in place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front
for later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does
not look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do
develop before Friday will likely not be producing very significant
amounts of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
southwest Montana after 00z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon...Visible satellite imagery and lightning analysis
over Western U.S. shows clouds and lightning strikes associated
with monsoonal moisture working northward through the Great Basin
area. There should be a notable increase in mid- to high-level
cloud cover over Southwest Montana Monday morning as this moisture
moves overhead.

Monday and Tuesday...Residual mid-level monsoonal moisture...per
increased 500 mb RH values...will rotate around the northwest side
of the Western U.S. ridge from the California/Nevada area up into
Southwest/Central Montana. This added moisture will result in a
slight probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Although precipitable water will be up around 0.75 inches, taking
the large surface dewpoint depressions into account, little rain
is expected from any storms that form. Therefore, the main
concerns will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. NAM shows
MUCAPE values peaking around 500+ J/kg over mountainous areas
while the GFS is lower. 0-6 km shear will generally be less than
30 kts. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening across mainly the higher elevations of
Southwest Montana. Uttech

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the 2nd half of the work week. With
a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are
in place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front
for later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does
not look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do
develop before Friday will likely not be producing very significant
amounts of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Surface winds will be light. High clouds will increase over
southwest Montana after 00z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  88 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  52  87  53  88 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  58  92  60  91 /   0  20  20  10
BZN  52  89  53  88 /   0  20  20  10
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  53  86  54  84 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  88  55  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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