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000
FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 252349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 252349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 252134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 252134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 251801
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1101 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 251801
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1101 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 251712
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1152Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. A cold front will switch winds to the north across north
central Montana this morning. Winds will continue strong and gusty
from the north. Widespread precipitation will develop during the day
and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are expected due to CIGS and
SN. Mountain obscuration should be expected over the Rockies and
mountains in Southwest and Central Montana. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 251712
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1152Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. A cold front will switch winds to the north across north
central Montana this morning. Winds will continue strong and gusty
from the north. Widespread precipitation will develop during the day
and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are expected due to CIGS and
SN. Mountain obscuration should be expected over the Rockies and
mountains in Southwest and Central Montana. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 251154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1152Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. A cold front will switch winds to the north across north
central Montana this morning. Winds will continue strong and gusty
from the north. Widespread precipitation will develop during the day
and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are expected due to CIGS and
SN. Mountain obscuration should be expected over the Rockies and
mountains in Southwest and Central Montana. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  30  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  50  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 251154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1152Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. A cold front will switch winds to the north across north
central Montana this morning. Winds will continue strong and gusty
from the north. Widespread precipitation will develop during the day
and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are expected due to CIGS and
SN. Mountain obscuration should be expected over the Rockies and
mountains in Southwest and Central Montana. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  30  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  50  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 251032
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 8 to 12 hours. Mountains will remain obscured with cigs
lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow develops.
Forecast confidence remains low on how far cigs/vis will lower at
TAF sites, but there should be a period of MVFR, possibly IFR
conditions Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening
through Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. Precipitation
may also briefly be a mix of rain and snow during the day on Tuesday
before changing to all snow by Tuesday evening. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR with
occasional LIFR conditions beginning on Tuesday morning and
continuing through Tuesday night. Strong winds will also continue
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains with wind gusts
up to 40kts at KCTB and KGTF and exceeding 50 kts along the Rocky
Mountain Front. As wind direction becomes northwesterly, wind speeds
will decrease by Tuesday afternoon. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  30  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  50  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 251032
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 8 to 12 hours. Mountains will remain obscured with cigs
lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow develops.
Forecast confidence remains low on how far cigs/vis will lower at
TAF sites, but there should be a period of MVFR, possibly IFR
conditions Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening
through Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. Precipitation
may also briefly be a mix of rain and snow during the day on Tuesday
before changing to all snow by Tuesday evening. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR with
occasional LIFR conditions beginning on Tuesday morning and
continuing through Tuesday night. Strong winds will also continue
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains with wind gusts
up to 40kts at KCTB and KGTF and exceeding 50 kts along the Rocky
Mountain Front. As wind direction becomes northwesterly, wind speeds
will decrease by Tuesday afternoon. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  30  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  50  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 250549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
Current forecast essentially on track as latest satellite imagery
shows leading edge of moisture from the approaching upper-level
trof steadily overspreading central and southwest MT.
Precipitation has been a little slow to develop so far this evening
along the Continental Divide, but plentiful moisture is just
upstream in northwest MT so still expect precip coverage to expand
over the mountains and eastward into the plains/southwest valleys
overnight. Precip chances remain low from Cut Bank to the western
edge of Cascade County as gusty downsloping winds will limit any
rain/snow development there. The high wind warning along the Rocky
Mtn Front and southern Louis & Clark County, along with winter
weather advisories and winter storm warnings across the region, all
remain in effect with no changes at this time. Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 8 to 12 hours. Mountains will remain obscured with cigs
lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow develops.
Forecast confidence remains low on how far cigs/vis will lower at
TAF sites, but there should be a period of MVFR, possibly IFR
conditions Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening
through Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. Precipitation
may also briefly be a mix of rain and snow during the day on Tuesday
before changing to all snow by Tuesday evening. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR with
occasional LIFR conditions beginning on Tuesday morning and
continuing through Tuesday night. Strong winds will also continue
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains with wind gusts
up to 40kts at KCTB and KGTF and exceeding 50 kts along the Rocky
Mountain Front. As wind direction becomes northwesterly, wind speeds
will decrease by Tuesday afternoon. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014/
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  23  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST Tuesday Central and Southern
Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 250404
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast essentially on track as latest satellite imagery
shows leading edge of moisture from the approaching upper-level
trof steadily overspreading central and southwest MT.
Precipitation has been a little slow to develop so far this evening
along the Continental Divide, but plentiful moisture is just
upstream in northwest MT so still expect precip coverage to expand
over the mountains and eastward into the plains/southwest valleys
overnight. Precip chances remain low from Cut Bank to the western
edge of Cascade County as gusty downsloping winds will limit any
rain/snow development there. The high wind warning along the Rocky Mtn
Front and southern Louis & Clark County, along with winter
weather advisories and winter storm warnings across the region,
all remain in effect with no changes at this time. Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Mountains will become obscured this evening
with cigs lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow
develops. Forecast confidence remains low on how much cigs/vis will
lower at TAF sites, but there should be a period of IFR conditions
Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR
beginning on Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday night.
Along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds up to 50 kts are also
expected, however wind speeds at TAF sites will be lower with gusts
up to 30 kts at KCTB and up to 20 kts at KGTF. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014/
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  23  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST Tuesday Central and Southern
Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 250404
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast essentially on track as latest satellite imagery
shows leading edge of moisture from the approaching upper-level
trof steadily overspreading central and southwest MT.
Precipitation has been a little slow to develop so far this evening
along the Continental Divide, but plentiful moisture is just
upstream in northwest MT so still expect precip coverage to expand
over the mountains and eastward into the plains/southwest valleys
overnight. Precip chances remain low from Cut Bank to the western
edge of Cascade County as gusty downsloping winds will limit any
rain/snow development there. The high wind warning along the Rocky Mtn
Front and southern Louis & Clark County, along with winter
weather advisories and winter storm warnings across the region,
all remain in effect with no changes at this time. Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Mountains will become obscured this evening
with cigs lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow
develops. Forecast confidence remains low on how much cigs/vis will
lower at TAF sites, but there should be a period of IFR conditions
Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR
beginning on Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday night.
Along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds up to 50 kts are also
expected, however wind speeds at TAF sites will be lower with gusts
up to 30 kts at KCTB and up to 20 kts at KGTF. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014/
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  23  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST Tuesday Central and Southern
Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 242354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Mountains will become obscured this evening
with cigs lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow
develops. Forecast confidence remains low on how much cigs/vis will
lower at TAF sites, but there should be a period of IFR conditions
Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR
beginning on Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday night.
Along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds up to 50 kts are also
expected, however wind speeds at TAF sites will be lower with gusts
up to 30 kts at KCTB and up to 20 kts at KGTF. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  22  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 242354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
A Pacific weather system will bring deteriorating conditions over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Mountains will become obscured this evening
with cigs lowering at lower elevations by Tuesday morning as snow
develops. Forecast confidence remains low on how much cigs/vis will
lower at TAF sites, but there should be a period of IFR conditions
Tuesday morning through midday and again Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night at KGTF, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT. For KBZN and KHLN, a
longer period of snow will keep cigs/vis predominantly MVFR/IFR
beginning on Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday night.
Along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds up to 50 kts are also
expected, however wind speeds at TAF sites will be lower with gusts
up to 30 kts at KCTB and up to 20 kts at KGTF. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  22  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 242155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
The main message to get across is there will be deteriorating
conditions as moisture increases over the area. For the mountains
there will be widespread obscurement over the Rocky Mountain Front
by late afternoon which will spread to southwest Montana after
midnight. Otherwise ceilings should be above 15000 feet by late
afternoon and ceilings will lower overnight as at least scattered
snow develops for the lower elevations. The problem is how low
ceilings and visibilities will go. Expect some areas of MVFR or even
IFR conditions for the lower elevations to develop and these
conditions could become widespread by early Tuesday morning. Have
fair confidence in forecast winds into the evening but have low
confidence on wind direction and speed after midnight and into
Tuesday morning. Also note that there will be wind gusts to 50 knots

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  22  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 242155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
The main message to get across is there will be deteriorating
conditions as moisture increases over the area. For the mountains
there will be widespread obscurement over the Rocky Mountain Front
by late afternoon which will spread to southwest Montana after
midnight. Otherwise ceilings should be above 15000 feet by late
afternoon and ceilings will lower overnight as at least scattered
snow develops for the lower elevations. The problem is how low
ceilings and visibilities will go. Expect some areas of MVFR or even
IFR conditions for the lower elevations to develop and these
conditions could become widespread by early Tuesday morning. Have
fair confidence in forecast winds into the evening but have low
confidence on wind direction and speed after midnight and into
Tuesday morning. Also note that there will be wind gusts to 50 knots

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  22  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 242155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
The main message to get across is there will be deteriorating
conditions as moisture increases over the area. For the mountains
there will be widespread obscurement over the Rocky Mountain Front
by late afternoon which will spread to southwest Montana after
midnight. Otherwise ceilings should be above 15000 feet by late
afternoon and ceilings will lower overnight as at least scattered
snow develops for the lower elevations. The problem is how low
ceilings and visibilities will go. Expect some areas of MVFR or even
IFR conditions for the lower elevations to develop and these
conditions could become widespread by early Tuesday morning. Have
fair confidence in forecast winds into the evening but have low
confidence on wind direction and speed after midnight and into
Tuesday morning. Also note that there will be wind gusts to 50 knots

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  22  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 242155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...A northwest flow aloft will
occur during the period. A weather disturbance will move into
eastern Montana Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
it and snow over the Rocky Mountain Front this evening will spread
to southwest Montana after midnight. Meanwhile at least scattered
snow will develop over the eastern plains. Then Tuesday afternoon
a band of lift and a very moist air mass will develop from the
Rocky Mountain Front into southwest Montana. For lower elevations
in southwest Montana expect a mix of rain and snow during the day
Tuesday. This band of lift and a very moist air mass will spread
northeast Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Meanwhile some
drying will develop over southwest Montana late Tuesday night then
spread to North Central Montana by late Wednesday night as a
Pacific upper ridge moves east. A cooler air mass will move into
the north Tuesday but there is some question just how cool it will
be. The cooler air mass will continue over the north into
Wednesday. Meanwhile southwest Montana will be in the warmer air
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day.

As for the high wind warning for tonight into Tuesday morning
will continue it and winds were picking up in the warning area
Monday afternoon. As for the winter weather highlights will go
with a winter storm warming from the Rocky Mountain Front into
central Montana for later tonight into Wednesday evening. The
Rocky Mountain Front will see the heaviest snow. For other areas
in the warning heavy snow should be confined mainly to the
mountains. Elsewhere will have a winter weather advisory for
tonight into Wednesday evening. Note that snow will likely be
diminishing over southwest Montana by late Tuesday night and that
snow will not become widespread over north central Montana until
Tuesday night. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the
long term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values
for into Friday as a weak ridge moves into the area behind an
exiting winter weather system. Another round of moisture appears
to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of cold
air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. Widespread
snowfall looks to begin Friday evening, lasting into Sunday in
some locations. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with this
cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm
up by the start of next week but Monday high temperatures may
still be at or below freezing for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
The main message to get across is there will be deteriorating
conditions as moisture increases over the area. For the mountains
there will be widespread obscurement over the Rocky Mountain Front
by late afternoon which will spread to southwest Montana after
midnight. Otherwise ceilings should be above 15000 feet by late
afternoon and ceilings will lower overnight as at least scattered
snow develops for the lower elevations. The problem is how low
ceilings and visibilities will go. Expect some areas of MVFR or even
IFR conditions for the lower elevations to develop and these
conditions could become widespread by early Tuesday morning. Have
fair confidence in forecast winds into the evening but have low
confidence on wind direction and speed after midnight and into
Tuesday morning. Also note that there will be wind gusts to 50 knots

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  40  24  39 /  30  50  90 100
CTB  30  38  23  32 /  20  20  90 100
HLN  31  40  30  46 /  40  70  90  40
BZN  22  37  26  43 /  50  80  80  40
WEY  16  32  25  35 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  23  40  33  45 /  20  50  40  30
HVR  28  38  20  30 /  30  20  60  90
LWT  27  37  22  35 /  40  50  80 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 241736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.UPDATE...

A transient ridge moves through the region today. Visible
satellite imagery reveals clearing over the north central plains.
Orographic light snow continues to fall over the Little Belt
mountains with mountain cloud cover and possible snow over the
southwest. Short term model guidance and observed trends indicate
this remaining snow activity will end by around noon. Updated to
make minor adjustments to POP/QPF/Snow and hourly grids to better
align with current observations. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
The main message to get across is there will be deteriorating
conditions as moisture increases over the area. For the mountains
there will be widespread obscurement over the Rocky Mountain Front
by late afternoon which will spread to southwest Montana after
midnight. Otherwise ceilings should be above 15000 feet by late
afternoon and ceilings will lower overnight as at least scattered
snow develops for the lower elevations. The problem is how low
ceilings and visibilities will go. Expect some areas of MVFR or even
IFR conditions for the lower elevations to develop and these
conditions could become widespread by early Tuesday morning. Have
fair confidence in forecast winds into the evening but have low
confidence on wind direction and speed after midnight and into
Tuesday morning. Also note that there will be wind gusts to 50 knots
over the Rocky Mountain Front tonight. Blank
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Satellite indicates a shortwave east of
the zones and another over the Eastern Pacific approaching the West
Coast. A ridge will build over the region although flow aloft will
remain disturbed. A strong jet will approach the Rockies Monday
ahead of the shortwave and surface winds will become very strong and
gusty across the Northern and Southern Rockies. A high wind warning
will be issued. The airmass will become very moist as this shortwave
continues towards the Rockies. Light snow will move east across the
Rockies tonight and begin a lengthy period of light snow. Periods of
heavier snow by Tuesday will cause significant accumulations over
the Rockies and portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A warning
for snow and blowing snow will be issued through Wednesday evening.
In addition, advisories will be issued for much of the remaining
zones except for Hill and Blaine. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the long
term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values for
Wednesday, Thursday, and part of Friday as a weak ridge moves into
the area behind the winter weather system. Another round of moisture
appears to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of
cold air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. This cold air
will combine with pacific moisture and should produce some
widespread snowfall beginning Friday evening and lasting through
most of the weekend. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with
this cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana. The
coldest day appears to currently be Saturday. Temperatures should
begin to warm up slowly by the start of the work week, however Even
on Monday the high temperatures may still be below freezing for a
large part of the area. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  31  41  25 /  10  30  30  90
CTB  39  29  39  22 /   0  20  20  90
HLN  39  30  42  32 /  10  30  70  90
BZN  34  20  37  27 /  10  40  80  80
WEY  27  15  32  25 /  20  70  60  60
DLN  32  22  41  35 /  10  20  50  40
HVR  40  28  39  21 /  10  30  20  60
LWT  38  27  39  23 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis
and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST
Wednesday Night Beaverhead...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Madison...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 241736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.UPDATE...

A transient ridge moves through the region today. Visible
satellite imagery reveals clearing over the north central plains.
Orographic light snow continues to fall over the Little Belt
mountains with mountain cloud cover and possible snow over the
southwest. Short term model guidance and observed trends indicate
this remaining snow activity will end by around noon. Updated to
make minor adjustments to POP/QPF/Snow and hourly grids to better
align with current observations. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
The main message to get across is there will be deteriorating
conditions as moisture increases over the area. For the mountains
there will be widespread obscurement over the Rocky Mountain Front
by late afternoon which will spread to southwest Montana after
midnight. Otherwise ceilings should be above 15000 feet by late
afternoon and ceilings will lower overnight as at least scattered
snow develops for the lower elevations. The problem is how low
ceilings and visibilities will go. Expect some areas of MVFR or even
IFR conditions for the lower elevations to develop and these
conditions could become widespread by early Tuesday morning. Have
fair confidence in forecast winds into the evening but have low
confidence on wind direction and speed after midnight and into
Tuesday morning. Also note that there will be wind gusts to 50 knots
over the Rocky Mountain Front tonight. Blank
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Satellite indicates a shortwave east of
the zones and another over the Eastern Pacific approaching the West
Coast. A ridge will build over the region although flow aloft will
remain disturbed. A strong jet will approach the Rockies Monday
ahead of the shortwave and surface winds will become very strong and
gusty across the Northern and Southern Rockies. A high wind warning
will be issued. The airmass will become very moist as this shortwave
continues towards the Rockies. Light snow will move east across the
Rockies tonight and begin a lengthy period of light snow. Periods of
heavier snow by Tuesday will cause significant accumulations over
the Rockies and portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A warning
for snow and blowing snow will be issued through Wednesday evening.
In addition, advisories will be issued for much of the remaining
zones except for Hill and Blaine. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the long
term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values for
Wednesday, Thursday, and part of Friday as a weak ridge moves into
the area behind the winter weather system. Another round of moisture
appears to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of
cold air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. This cold air
will combine with pacific moisture and should produce some
widespread snowfall beginning Friday evening and lasting through
most of the weekend. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with
this cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana. The
coldest day appears to currently be Saturday. Temperatures should
begin to warm up slowly by the start of the work week, however Even
on Monday the high temperatures may still be below freezing for a
large part of the area. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  31  41  25 /  10  30  30  90
CTB  39  29  39  22 /   0  20  20  90
HLN  39  30  42  32 /  10  30  70  90
BZN  34  20  37  27 /  10  40  80  80
WEY  27  15  32  25 /  20  70  60  60
DLN  32  22  41  35 /  10  20  50  40
HVR  40  28  39  21 /  10  30  20  60
LWT  38  27  39  23 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis
and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST
Wednesday Night Beaverhead...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Madison...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 241645
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.UPDATE...

A transient ridge moves through the region today. Visible
satellite imagery reveals clearing over the north central plains.
Orographic light snow continues to fall over the Little Belt
mountains with mountain cloud cover and possible snow over the
southwest. Short term model guidance and observed trends indicate
this remaining snow activity will end by around noon. Updated to
make minor adjustments to POP/QPF/Snow and hourly grids to better
align with current observations. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Latest satellite/radar imagery showing the main portion of a weak
upper-level trof is currently passing thru central and southwest MT
with widespread VFR ceilings (generally above 5000 ft) and spotty
-SHRASN and -SHSN near all local terminals except KCTB.  Expect
little change in conditions next 4-6 hrs as the trof makes it way
across the region.  Look for steadily decreasing precipitation and
cloud cover, along with higher ceilings, progressing from
west-to-east by mid-late Mon morning as weak high pressure ridging
will follow the departing trof.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Satellite indicates a shortwave east of
the zones and another over the Eastern Pacific approaching the West
Coast. A ridge will build over the region although flow aloft will
remain disturbed. A strong jet will approach the Rockies Monday
ahead of the shortwave and surface winds will become very strong and
gusty across the Northern and Southern Rockies. A high wind warning
will be issued. The airmass will become very moist as this shortwave
continues towards the Rockies. Light snow will move east across the
Rockies tonight and begin a lengthy period of light snow. Periods of
heavier snow by Tuesday will cause significant accumulations over
the Rockies and portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A warning
for snow and blowing snow will be issued through Wednesday evening.
In addition, advisories will be issued for much of the remaining
zones except for Hill and Blaine. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the long
term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values for
Wednesday, Thursday, and part of Friday as a weak ridge moves into
the area behind the winter weather system. Another round of moisture
appears to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of
cold air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. This cold air
will combine with pacific moisture and should produce some
widespread snowfall beginning Friday evening and lasting through
most of the weekend. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with
this cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana. The
coldest day appears to currently be Saturday. Temperatures should
begin to warm up slowly by the start of the work week, however Even
on Monday the high temperatures may still be below freezing for a
large part of the area. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  31  41  25 /  10  30  30  90
CTB  39  29  39  22 /   0  20  20  90
HLN  39  30  42  32 /  10  30  70  90
BZN  34  20  37  27 /  10  40  80  80
WEY  27  15  32  25 /  20  70  60  60
DLN  32  22  41  35 /  10  20  50  40
HVR  40  28  39  21 /  10  30  20  60
LWT  38  27  39  23 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis
and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST
Wednesday Night Beaverhead...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Madison...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 241025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
325 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Satellite indicates a shortwave east of
the zones and another over the Eastern Pacific approaching the West
Coast. A ridge will build over the region although flow aloft will
remain disturbed. A strong jet will approach the Rockies Monday
ahead of the shortwave and surface winds will become very strong and
gusty across the Northern and Southern Rockies. A high wind warning
will be issued. The airmass will become very moist as this shortwave
continues towards the Rockies. Light snow will move east across the
Rockies tonight and begin a lengthy period of light snow. Periods of
heavier snow by Tuesday will cause significant accumulations over
the Rockies and portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A warning
for snow and blowing snow will be issued through Wednesday evening.
In addition, advisories will be issued for much of the remaining
zones except for Hill and Blaine. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the long
term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values for
Wednesday, Thursday, and part of Friday as a weak ridge moves into
the area behind the winter weather system. Another round of moisture
appears to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of
cold air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. This cold air
will combine with pacific moisture and should produce some
widespread snowfall beginning Friday evening and lasting through
most of the weekend. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with
this cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana. The
coldest day appears to currently be Saturday. Temperatures should
begin to warm up slowly by the start of the work week, however Even
on Monday the high temperatures may still be below freezing for a
large part of the area. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Latest satellite/radar imagery showing the main portion of a weak
upper-level trof is currently passing thru central and southwest MT
with widespread VFR ceilings (generally above 5000 ft) and spotty
-SHRASN and -SHSN near all local terminals except KCTB.  Expect
little change in conditions next 4-6 hrs as the trof makes it way
across the region.  Look for steadily decreasing precipitation and
cloud cover, along with higher ceilings, progressing from
west-to-east by mid-late Mon morning as weak high pressure ridging
will follow the departing trof.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  31  41  25 /  10  30  30  90
CTB  39  29  39  22 /  10  20  20  90
HLN  39  30  42  32 /  20  30  70  90
BZN  34  20  37  27 /  30  40  80  80
WEY  27  15  32  25 /  50  70  60  60
DLN  32  22  41  35 /  10  20  50  40
HVR  40  28  39  21 /  10  30  20  60
LWT  38  27  39  23 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis
and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST
Wednesday Night Beaverhead...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Madison...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 240544
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

A weak shortwave trough is progressing through Northwest Montana.
Widespread rain and snow showers west of the Continental Divide
will continue to spread through central and southwest MT tonight.
Surface winds along the Rocky Mtn Front have been stronger than
forecast this afternoon, but expected to weaken as the trough axis
passes and the surface low begins to move away. Downslope mixing
with these gusty winds has helped keep temperatures warmer than
forecast this evening. Wind and temperature grids were adjusted
upward to better match observations and short term model trends.
With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and very light echos on
the radar over the North-central plains, light rain was introduced
with snow showers for this evening. POP and QPF grids match radar
and short-term forecast guidance, so left as is. Snow
accumulations were re-examined with the warmer temperatures. The
outcome remains 1-2 inches of new snow tonight over Kings Hill
Pass, 2-4 inches along the Rocky Mtn Front and portions of
southwest MT. Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow
remain in effect through Monday morning. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Latest satellite/radar imagery showing the main portion of a weak
upper-level trof is currently passing thru central and southwest MT
with widespread VFR ceilings (generally above 5000 ft) and spotty
-SHRASN and -SHSN near all local terminals except KCTB.  Expect
little change in conditions next 4-6 hrs as the trof makes it way
across the region.  Look for steadily decreasing precipitation and
cloud cover, along with higher ceilings, progressing from
west-to-east by mid-late Mon morning as weak high pressure ridging
will follow the departing trof.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  27  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  29  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  20  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  14  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  19  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  26  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  27  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 240544
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

A weak shortwave trough is progressing through Northwest Montana.
Widespread rain and snow showers west of the Continental Divide
will continue to spread through central and southwest MT tonight.
Surface winds along the Rocky Mtn Front have been stronger than
forecast this afternoon, but expected to weaken as the trough axis
passes and the surface low begins to move away. Downslope mixing
with these gusty winds has helped keep temperatures warmer than
forecast this evening. Wind and temperature grids were adjusted
upward to better match observations and short term model trends.
With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and very light echos on
the radar over the North-central plains, light rain was introduced
with snow showers for this evening. POP and QPF grids match radar
and short-term forecast guidance, so left as is. Snow
accumulations were re-examined with the warmer temperatures. The
outcome remains 1-2 inches of new snow tonight over Kings Hill
Pass, 2-4 inches along the Rocky Mtn Front and portions of
southwest MT. Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow
remain in effect through Monday morning. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Latest satellite/radar imagery showing the main portion of a weak
upper-level trof is currently passing thru central and southwest MT
with widespread VFR ceilings (generally above 5000 ft) and spotty
-SHRASN and -SHSN near all local terminals except KCTB.  Expect
little change in conditions next 4-6 hrs as the trof makes it way
across the region.  Look for steadily decreasing precipitation and
cloud cover, along with higher ceilings, progressing from
west-to-east by mid-late Mon morning as weak high pressure ridging
will follow the departing trof.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  27  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  29  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  20  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  14  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  19  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  26  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  27  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 240342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A weak shortwave trough is progressing through Northwest Montana.
Widespread rain and snow showers west of the Continental Divide
will continue to spread through central and southwest MT tonight.
Surface winds along the Rocky Mtn Front have been stronger than
forecast this afternoon, but expected to weaken as the trough axis
passes and the surface low begins to move away. Downslope mixing
with these gusty winds has helped keep temperatures warmer than
forecast this evening. Wind and temperature grids were adjusted
upward to better match observations and short term model trends.
With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and very light echos on
the radar over the North-central plains, light rain was introduced
with snow showers for this evening. POP and QPF grids match radar
and short-term forecast guidance, so left as is. Snow
accumulations were re-examined with the warmer temperatures. The
outcome remains 1-2 inches of new snow tonight over Kings Hill
Pass, 2-4 inches along the Rocky Mtn Front and portions of
southwest MT. Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow
remain in effect through Monday morning. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions will continue this evening, but cloud coverage is
already steadily increasing and ceilings lowering from west-to-east
with the arrival of relatively weak upper-level trof located just
west of the Continental Divide at 00Z.  Trof will make steady
progress through the region tonight and generate some isolated
-SHRASN or -SHSN as the trof axis swings through from 05-12Z.  Have
kept mostly VCSH in local TAFs, with a mention of -SHSN on station
at KLWT owing to slightly better lift and available moisture there
starting around 09Z. Showers should taper off by mid-morning Mon as
the trof heads into eastern MT, with gradually decreasing cloud
cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  27  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  29  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  20  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  14  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  19  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  26  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  27  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 240342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A weak shortwave trough is progressing through Northwest Montana.
Widespread rain and snow showers west of the Continental Divide
will continue to spread through central and southwest MT tonight.
Surface winds along the Rocky Mtn Front have been stronger than
forecast this afternoon, but expected to weaken as the trough axis
passes and the surface low begins to move away. Downslope mixing
with these gusty winds has helped keep temperatures warmer than
forecast this evening. Wind and temperature grids were adjusted
upward to better match observations and short term model trends.
With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and very light echos on
the radar over the North-central plains, light rain was introduced
with snow showers for this evening. POP and QPF grids match radar
and short-term forecast guidance, so left as is. Snow
accumulations were re-examined with the warmer temperatures. The
outcome remains 1-2 inches of new snow tonight over Kings Hill
Pass, 2-4 inches along the Rocky Mtn Front and portions of
southwest MT. Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow
remain in effect through Monday morning. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions will continue this evening, but cloud coverage is
already steadily increasing and ceilings lowering from west-to-east
with the arrival of relatively weak upper-level trof located just
west of the Continental Divide at 00Z.  Trof will make steady
progress through the region tonight and generate some isolated
-SHRASN or -SHSN as the trof axis swings through from 05-12Z.  Have
kept mostly VCSH in local TAFs, with a mention of -SHSN on station
at KLWT owing to slightly better lift and available moisture there
starting around 09Z. Showers should taper off by mid-morning Mon as
the trof heads into eastern MT, with gradually decreasing cloud
cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  27  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  29  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  20  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  14  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  19  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  26  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  27  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 232337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions will continue this evening, but cloud coverage is
already steadily increasing and ceilings lowering from west-to-east
with the arrival of relatively weak upper-level trof located just
west of the Continental Divide at 00Z.  Trof will make steady
progress through the region tonight and generate some isolated
-SHRASN or -SHSN as the trof axis swings through from 05-12Z.  Have
kept mostly VCSH in local TAFs, with a mention of -SHSN on station
at KLWT owing to slightly better lift and available moisture there
starting around 09Z. Showers should taper off by mid-morning Mon as
the trof heads into eastern MT, with gradually decreasing cloud
cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  25  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  28  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  19  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  13  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  17  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  24  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  26  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 232337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions will continue this evening, but cloud coverage is
already steadily increasing and ceilings lowering from west-to-east
with the arrival of relatively weak upper-level trof located just
west of the Continental Divide at 00Z.  Trof will make steady
progress through the region tonight and generate some isolated
-SHRASN or -SHSN as the trof axis swings through from 05-12Z.  Have
kept mostly VCSH in local TAFs, with a mention of -SHSN on station
at KLWT owing to slightly better lift and available moisture there
starting around 09Z. Showers should taper off by mid-morning Mon as
the trof heads into eastern MT, with gradually decreasing cloud
cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  25  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  28  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  19  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  13  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  17  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  24  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  26  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 232115
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Expect generally VFR conditions during the period. Ceilings will be
mostly above 15000 feet this afternoon but will lower to 4000 to
6000 feet this evening as scattered snow showers develop. Expect at
least local MVFR/IFR conditions in the snow showers and there is the
possibility that MVFR conditions could become more widespread over
the plains late this evening and after midnight. Also snow and
mountain obscurement will be widespread over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front..the Little Belt Mountains..and mountain ranges
over southern Gallatin and southern Madison Counties. Snow is
expected to diminish by late Monday morning and conditions should be
VFR. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  25  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  28  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  19  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  13  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  17  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  24  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  26  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 232115
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term as an active northwesterly flow remains over
the region. Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the western
and central Montana mountains this evening and overnight. Models
suggest that Marias Pass and Kings Hill Pass could see a few inches
of snow and thus the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Showers
diminish Monday but another surge of moisture coupled with strong
mid and high level winds develops early Tuesday morning. Strong
westerly winds will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass. A High Wind Watch
continues for these locations from late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will
move southeast through the day on Tuesday bringing northerly winds
to North Central Montana. This will result in a good likelihood of
precipitation that starts off as rain in some locations but changes
to snow across much of the region by late afternoon. Winter weather
highlights could be required with this developing system.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal over the next few days.

Tuesday night through Sunday...The ECMWF and GFS models have come
into better agreement with general trends through Thanksgiving. It
looks like a significant snow event will affect at least the Rocky
Mountain Front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winter weather
highlights will likely be issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and
could be issued elsewhere. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS
solution of pushing this snow mainly into Canada by late Wednesday
and Thanksgiving could end up being a mostly dry day except for
lingering snow over the Rocky Mountain Front. Have lowered the
chances of snow to reflect this trend. The ECMWF and GFS begin to
diverge with their snow forecasts Friday into the weekend so have
continued with the idea of slight chance to chance pops. What the
ECMWF and GFS do agree on is a colder Canadian airmass will invade
the area Friday and continue into the weekend. Forecast lows in the
north are expected to be below zero with highs only in the single
digits to teens over the weekend. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Expect generally VFR conditions during the period. Ceilings will be
mostly above 15000 feet this afternoon but will lower to 4000 to
6000 feet this evening as scattered snow showers develop. Expect at
least local MVFR/IFR conditions in the snow showers and there is the
possibility that MVFR conditions could become more widespread over
the plains late this evening and after midnight. Also snow and
mountain obscurement will be widespread over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front..the Little Belt Mountains..and mountain ranges
over southern Gallatin and southern Madison Counties. Snow is
expected to diminish by late Monday morning and conditions should be
VFR. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  41  29  42 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  25  39  28  40 /  10  10  20  60
HLN  28  39  28  41 /  30  20  30  60
BZN  19  33  18  37 /  40  30  30  60
WEY  13  26  12  30 /  70  50  40  70
DLN  17  31  20  40 /  30  10  20  50
HVR  24  40  27  40 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  26  38  26  39 /  40  20  20  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231755
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Mostly quiet today. Lowered POP through the day with weak high
pressure moving over. Expect a chance for precipitation to linger
over Southwest Montana, increasing from the west this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Expect generally VFR conditions during the period. Ceilings will be
mostly above 15000 feet this afternoon but will lower to 4000 to
6000 feet this evening as scattered snow showers develop. Expect at
least local MVFR/IFR conditions in the snow showers and there is the
possiblity that MVFR conditions could become more widespread over
the plains late this evening and after midnight. Also snow and
mountain obscurement will be widespread over the moutains of the
Rocky Mountain Front..the Little Belt Mountains..and mountain ranges
over southern Gallatin and southern Madison Counties. Snow is
expected to diminish by late Monday morning and conditions should be
VFR. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening down-slope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  10  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  10  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  40  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /   0  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 231755
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Mostly quiet today. Lowered POP through the day with weak high
pressure moving over. Expect a chance for precipitation to linger
over Southwest Montana, increasing from the west this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Expect generally VFR conditions during the period. Ceilings will be
mostly above 15000 feet this afternoon but will lower to 4000 to
6000 feet this evening as scattered snow showers develop. Expect at
least local MVFR/IFR conditions in the snow showers and there is the
possiblity that MVFR conditions could become more widespread over
the plains late this evening and after midnight. Also snow and
mountain obscurement will be widespread over the moutains of the
Rocky Mountain Front..the Little Belt Mountains..and mountain ranges
over southern Gallatin and southern Madison Counties. Snow is
expected to diminish by late Monday morning and conditions should be
VFR. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening down-slope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  10  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  10  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  40  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /   0  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 231650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Mostly quiet today. Lowered POP through the day with weak high
pressure moving over. Expect a chance for precipitation to linger
over Southwest Montana, increasing from the west this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the
TAF period. Brief intrusions into MVFR due to lowered cloud
ceilings will be possible especially over KBZN and KHLN due to
some instability associated with a weak Pacific Cold front. Winds
will remain breezy today especially near the frontal passage. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening down-slope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  10  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  10  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  40  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /   0  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Mostly quiet today. Lowered POP through the day with weak high
pressure moving over. Expect a chance for precipitation to linger
over Southwest Montana, increasing from the west this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the
TAF period. Brief intrusions into MVFR due to lowered cloud
ceilings will be possible especially over KBZN and KHLN due to
some instability associated with a weak Pacific Cold front. Winds
will remain breezy today especially near the frontal passage. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014/

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening down-slope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  10  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  10  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  40  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /   0  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Monday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
457 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening downslope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the
TAF period. Brief intrusions into MVFR due to lowered cloud
ceilings will be possible especially over KBZN and KHLN due to
some instability associated with a weak Pacific Cold front. Winds
will remain breezy today especially near the frontal passage. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /  10  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  20  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  20  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  50  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  20  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /  20  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Monday Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231101
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening downslope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.
Surface pressure gradient and winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trof that moved through the region earlier today
continue to steadily decrease tonight, allowing wind gusts to drop
below 25 kts over all but a handful of locations. Expect VFR
conditions with a mix of SCT to OVC mid-level (generally above 5000
ft) over central and southwest MT tonight.  Small area of -RASN
south and west of KHVR will persist and may drift toward KHVR so
will keep mention of VCSH until Sun morning.  A weak trof currently
over western MT will cross the Continental Divide later tonight,
bringing some scattered -SHRASN and ceilings lowering to around
3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN starting around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /  10  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  20  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  20  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  50  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  20  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /  20  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Monday Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.
Surface pressure gradient and winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trof that moved through the region earlier today
continue to steadily decrease tonight, allowing wind gusts to drop
below 25 kts over all but a handful of locations. Expect VFR
conditions with a mix of SCT to OVC mid-level (generally above 5000
ft) over central and southwest MT tonight.  Small area of -RASN
south and west of KHVR will persist and may drift toward KHVR so
will keep mention of VCSH until Sun morning.  A weak trof currently
over western MT will cross the Continental Divide later tonight,
bringing some scattered -SHRASN and ceilings lowering to around
3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN starting around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 230533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.
Surface pressure gradient and winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trof that moved through the region earlier today
continue to steadily decrease tonight, allowing wind gusts to drop
below 25 kts over all but a handful of locations. Expect VFR
conditions with a mix of SCT to OVC mid-level (generally above 5000
ft) over central and southwest MT tonight.  Small area of -RASN
south and west of KHVR will persist and may drift toward KHVR so
will keep mention of VCSH until Sun morning.  A weak trof currently
over western MT will cross the Continental Divide later tonight,
bringing some scattered -SHRASN and ceilings lowering to around
3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN starting around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 230349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Upper-level trof and its associated cold front and precipitation
that moved thru the region earlier today is now mostly in eastern
MT.  Tight surface pressure gradient and strong winds aloft from
that system will continue to generate gusty winds through 02-04Z
with area of strongest winds (G35-50kts) along/north of a KHLN-to-
KLWT line.  Winds will gradually decrease (gusts 20-25kts or less)
this evening as the trof heads further downstream.  Meanwhile,
latest radar/satellite imagery showing a second weaker disturbance
just crossing the US/Can border into north central MT, bringing
mid-level (generally above 6000 ft) ceilings and some isolated -SHRA
vcnty KHVR. Expect this system to track south-southeast this
evening, with VFR conditions continuing into tonight. Lastly, a
third system, this one currently over near WA/ID border, will arrive
early Sun morning, with scattered showers and ceilings lowering to
around 3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Upper-level trof and its associated cold front and precipitation
that moved thru the region earlier today is now mostly in eastern
MT.  Tight surface pressure gradient and strong winds aloft from
that system will continue to generate gusty winds through 02-04Z
with area of strongest winds (G35-50kts) along/north of a KHLN-to-
KLWT line.  Winds will gradually decrease (gusts 20-25kts or less)
this evening as the trof heads further downstream.  Meanwhile,
latest radar/satellite imagery showing a second weaker disturbance
just crossing the US/Can border into north central MT, bringing
mid-level (generally above 6000 ft) ceilings and some isolated -SHRA
vcnty KHVR. Expect this system to track south-southeast this
evening, with VFR conditions continuing into tonight. Lastly, a
third system, this one currently over near WA/ID border, will arrive
early Sun morning, with scattered showers and ceilings lowering to
around 3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







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