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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281815
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1210 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

954 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MATCH UP WITH CHANGES WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, WHICH AMOUNTED TO ONLY NEGLIGIBLE TWEAKS.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

8 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
(BASICALLY ALONG AND BETWEEN A GREAT FALLS-TO-LEWISTOWN LINE AND A
HELENA-TO- BOZEMAN LINE) TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1810Z.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FEED OF MOISTURE AS
IT SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY THROUGH
01Z, ALLOWING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
WITH ONLY PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA AFTER 04Z, CAUSING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING
WITH WET SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
PRIMARILY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO
START THE PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE
UPPER TROF SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER
NEVADA/UTAH AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER
AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 / 100  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  80  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  80  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 / 100  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281554
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
954 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

954 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MATCH UP WITH CHANGES WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, WHICH AMOUNTED TO ONLY NEGLIGIBLE TWEAKS.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

8 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
(BASICALLY ALONG AND BETWEEN A GREAT FALLS-TO-LEWISTOWN LINE AND A
HELENA-TO- BOZEMAN LINE) TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WILL
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING
WITH WET SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
PRIMARILY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO
START THE PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE
UPPER TROF SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER
NEVADA/UTAH AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER
AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 / 100  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  80  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  80  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 / 100  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING WITH WET SNOW
OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN
OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO START THE
PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROF
SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER NEVADA/UTAH
AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WILL
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 /  80  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  50  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  30  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING WITH WET SNOW
OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN
OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO START THE
PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROF
SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER NEVADA/UTAH
AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WILL
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 /  80  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  50  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  30  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING WITH WET SNOW
OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN
OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO START THE
PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROF
SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER NEVADA/UTAH
AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

AN EAST TO WEST ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AND ALSO POTENTIALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 /  80  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  50  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  30  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280534
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT AS BROAD, SLOW-MOVING MOISTURE MOVES
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ACROSS OUR REGION, MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURS MORNING. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF LOCAL
MTN RANGES, THOUGH SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION SITES MIGHT PICK UP A
TRACE TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

ONLY SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY TO INCLUDE
MORE OF THE CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES IN THE AREA WHERE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE 80% OR GREATER.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

AN EAST TO WEST ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AND ALSO POTENTIALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 557 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL AND WET 24 HOURS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO MONTANA VIA AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SNOW
SHOULD MOSTLY MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MAINLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA, LIMITING THE FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A CUT BANK TO BOZEMAN
LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.  COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT IN
THE SHORT TERM CARRIES OVER INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SMALLER OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE
AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN US. OF NOTE...FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC/GEFS
BLEND FROM THE WEEKEND ON. THE GFS...WHICH TRIES TO HOLD ON TO
THE TROUGH A BIT LONGER...APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WENT LOWER WITH POPS FROM SATURDAY ON AS THERE IS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS
BASED ON THE GEFS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEXT WEEK
BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK AND
ADDED CONFIDENCE FROM ANALOGS...WENT A BIT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  45  32  56 /  90  70  20  10
CTB  32  44  32  55 /  80  70  30  20
HLN  37  51  35  60 /  60  50  20  30
BZN  34  49  33  59 /  40  20  20  20
WEY  27  45  27  50 /  20  30  20  40
DLN  32  52  32  58 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  34  47  34  56 /  90  50  10  20
LWT  32  41  32  53 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280303
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
903 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT AS BROAD, SLOW-MOVING MOISTURE MOVES
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ACROSS OUR REGION, MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURS MORNING. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF LOCAL
MTN RANGES, THOUGH SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION SITES MIGHT PICK UP A
TRACE TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

ONLY SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING, MAINLY TO INCLUDE
MORE OF THE CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES IN THE AREA WHERE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE 80% OR GREATER.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2357Z.

AN EASTERLY FETCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MONTANA. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE S/W...IT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE ABUNDANT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OF
NOTE...THE LOWEST CIGS/VIS AND BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A LOWER CHANCE ACROSS SW MT. MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 557 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL AND WET 24 HOURS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO MONTANA VIA AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SNOW
SHOULD MOSTLY MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MAINLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA, LIMITING THE FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A CUT BANK TO BOZEMAN
LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.  COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT IN
THE SHORT TERM CARRIES OVER INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SMALLER OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE
AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN US. OF NOTE...FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC/GEFS
BLEND FROM THE WEEKEND ON. THE GFS...WHICH TRIES TO HOLD ON TO
THE TROUGH A BIT LONGER...APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WENT LOWER WITH POPS FROM SATURDAY ON AS THERE IS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS
BASED ON THE GEFS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEXT WEEK
BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK AND
ADDED CONFIDENCE FROM ANALOGS...WENT A BIT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  45  32  56 /  90  70  20  10
CTB  32  44  32  55 /  80  70  30  20
HLN  37  51  35  60 /  60  50  20  30
BZN  34  49  33  59 /  40  20  20  20
WEY  27  45  27  50 /  20  30  20  40
DLN  32  52  32  58 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  34  47  34  56 /  90  50  10  20
LWT  32  41  32  53 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272359
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL AND WET 24 HOURS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO MONTANA VIA AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SNOW
SHOULD MOSTLY MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MAINLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA, LIMITING THE FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A CUT BANK TO BOZEMAN
LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.  COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT IN
THE SHORT TERM CARRIES OVER INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SMALLER OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE
AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN US. OF NOTE...FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC/GEFS
BLEND FROM THE WEEKEND ON. THE GFS...WHICH TRIES TO HOLD ON TO
THE TROUGH A BIT LONGER...APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WENT LOWER WITH POPS FROM SATURDAY ON AS THERE IS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS
BASED ON THE GEFS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEXT WEEK
BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK AND
ADDED CONFIDENCE FROM ANALOGS...WENT A BIT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2357Z.

AN EASTERLY FETCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MONTANA. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE S/W...IT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE ABUNDANT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OF
NOTE...THE LOWEST CIGS/VIS AND BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A LOWER CHANCE ACROSS SW MT. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  45  32  56 /  80  70  20  10
CTB  32  44  32  55 /  80  70  30  20
HLN  37  51  35  60 /  60  50  20  30
BZN  34  49  33  59 /  40  20  20  20
WEY  27  45  27  50 /  20  30  20  40
DLN  32  52  32  58 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  34  47  34  56 /  90  50  10  20
LWT  32  41  32  53 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272051
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
251 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL AND WET 24 HOURS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO MONTANA VIA AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SNOW
SHOULD MOSTLY MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MAINLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA, LIMITING THE FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A CUT BANK TO BOZEMAN
LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.  COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT IN
THE SHORT TERM CARRIES OVER INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SMALLER OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE
AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN US. OF NOTE...FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC/GEFS
BLEND FROM THE WEEKEND ON. THE GFS...WHICH TRIES TO HOLD ON TO
THE TROUGH A BIT LONGER...APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WENT LOWER WITH POPS FROM SATURDAY ON AS THERE IS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS
BASED ON THE GEFS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEXT WEEK
BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK AND
ADDED CONFIDENCE FROM ANALOGS...WENT A BIT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.

DEEP MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL (KHVR KCTB) AND CENTRAL (KLWT KGTF
KHLN) MONTANA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN) WILL
HAVE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  45  32  56 /  80  70  20  10
CTB  32  44  32  55 /  80  70  30  20
HLN  37  51  35  60 /  60  50  20  30
BZN  34  49  33  59 /  40  20  20  20
WEY  27  45  27  50 /  20  30  20  40
DLN  32  52  32  58 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  34  47  34  56 /  90  50  10  20
LWT  32  41  32  53 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271734
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TODAY,
MAINLY TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CHANGES. OVERALL
FORECAST APPEARS TO ON TRACK, AS LIGHT RAIN AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, RANGING FROM 40S IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
COULSTON


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.

DEEP MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL (KHVR KCTB) AND CENTRAL (KLWT KGTF
KHLN) MONTANA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN) WILL
HAVE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ELONGATED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE US HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND MT WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT AND RELATIVELY
SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, CONCENTRATING
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL INITIALLY
BRING SOME DRYING AND CLEARING TO THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD
TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF
MOVES LITTLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. AGAIN, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY. THE TROF FILLS ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY FURTHER
WARMING THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
MONDAY CULMINATING WITH A RETURN OF 70+ DEGREE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  31  47  31 /  40  40  30  10
CTB  47  31  47  31 /  30  40  50  20
HLN  52  35  53  35 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  51  32  51  32 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  45  27  47  26 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  53  31  53  31 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  46  33  48  33 /  50  50  50  20
LWT  42  32  44  31 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271531
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
931 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TODAY,
MAINLY TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CHANGES. OVERALL
FORECAST APPEARS TO ON TRACK, AS LIGHT RAIN AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, RANGING FROM 40S IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
COULSTON


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS WILL
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND BEYOND. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ELONGATED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE US HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND MT WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT AND RELATIVELY
SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, CONCENTRATING
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL INITIALLY
BRING SOME DRYING AND CLEARING TO THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD
TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF
MOVES LITTLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. AGAIN, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY. THE TROF FILLS ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY FURTHER
WARMING THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
MONDAY CULMINATING WITH A RETURN OF 70+ DEGREE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  31  47  31 /  40  40  30  10
CTB  47  31  47  31 /  30  40  50  20
HLN  52  35  53  35 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  51  32  51  32 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  45  27  47  26 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  53  31  53  31 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  46  33  48  33 /  50  50  50  20
LWT  42  32  44  31 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ELONGATED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE US HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND MT WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT AND RELATIVELY
SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, CONCENTRATING
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL INITIALLY
BRING SOME DRYING AND CLEARING TO THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD
TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF
MOVES LITTLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. AGAIN, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY. THE TROF FILLS ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY FURTHER
WARMING THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
MONDAY CULMINATING WITH A RETURN OF 70+ DEGREE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS WILL
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND BEYOND. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  31  47  31 /  40  40  30  10
CTB  47  31  47  31 /  30  40  50  20
HLN  52  35  53  35 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  51  32  51  32 /  30  30  20  20
WEY  45  27  47  26 /  30  20  30  20
DLN  53  31  53  31 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  46  33  48  33 /  50  50  50  20
LWT  42  32  44  31 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270926
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
326 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ELONGATED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE US HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND MT WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT AND RELATIVELY
SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, CONCENTRATING
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL INITIALLY
BRING SOME DRYING AND CLEARING TO THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD
TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF
MOVES LITTLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. AGAIN, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY. THE TROF FILLS ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY FURTHER
WARMING THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
MONDAY CULMINATING WITH A RETURN OF 70+ DEGREE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0424Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A MOIST AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. LOCAL RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  31  47  31 /  40  40  30  10
CTB  47  31  47  31 /  30  40  50  20
HLN  52  35  53  35 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  51  32  51  32 /  30  30  20  20
WEY  45  27  47  26 /  30  20  30  20
DLN  53  31  53  31 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  46  33  48  33 /  50  50  50  20
LWT  42  32  44  31 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270425
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1024 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO WEATHER DISTURBANCES BUT WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE LOW, AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. FRESHENED POPS AND
RELATED GRIDS BUT CHANGES MINOR. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0424Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A MOIST AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. LOCAL RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 513 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
AREA ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.  COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  46  32  48 /  20  40  40  50
CTB  31  47  31  48 /  10  40  50  50
HLN  36  53  36  55 /  20  30  30  40
BZN  34  53  33  53 /  30  40  40  30
WEY  29  46  27  48 /  30  30  20  30
DLN  33  54  33  54 /  20  30  20  20
HVR  33  44  33  47 /  40  40  60  50
LWT  32  42  32  45 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270258
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO WEATHER DISTURBANCES BUT WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE LOW, AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. FRESHENED POPS AND
RELATED GRIDS BUT CHANGES MINOR. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2312Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A MOIST AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. LOCAL RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 513 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
AREA ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.  COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  46  32  48 /  20  40  40  50
CTB  31  47  31  48 /  10  40  50  50
HLN  36  53  36  55 /  20  30  30  40
BZN  34  53  33  53 /  30  40  40  30
WEY  29  46  27  48 /  30  30  20  30
DLN  33  54  33  54 /  20  30  20  20
HVR  33  44  33  47 /  40  40  60  50
LWT  32  42  32  45 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
513 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
AREA ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.  COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2312Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A MOIST AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. LOCAL RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  46  32  48 /  20  40  40  50
CTB  31  47  31  48 /  10  40  50  50
HLN  36  53  36  55 /  20  30  30  40
BZN  34  53  33  53 /  30  40  40  30
WEY  29  46  27  48 /  30  30  20  30
DLN  33  54  33  54 /  20  30  20  20
HVR  33  44  33  47 /  40  40  60  50
LWT  32  42  32  45 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
AREA ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.  COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 21Z, ALLOWING
CEILINGS TO RISE TO LOW VFR LEVELS AT TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
HOWEVER, FOG IN THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND ONLY OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  46  32  48 /  20  40  40  50
CTB  31  47  31  48 /  10  40  50  50
HLN  36  53  36  55 /  20  30  30  40
BZN  34  53  33  53 /  30  40  40  30
WEY  29  46  27  48 /  30  30  20  30
DLN  33  54  33  54 /  20  30  20  20
HVR  33  44  33  47 /  40  40  60  50
LWT  32  42  32  45 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261739
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS FOR TODAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS MORNING, SO HAVE RAISED POPS MOSTLY TO CATEGORICAL, THOUGH
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW. WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTION ALSO CONTINUES, SO HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN
UNTIL NOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 21Z, ALLOWING
CEILINGS TO RISE TO LOW VFR LEVELS AT TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
HOWEVER, FOG IN THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND ONLY OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS
NORTH, EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF
COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE
ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  80  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  60  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  50  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  80  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  80  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261739
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS FOR TODAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS MORNING, SO HAVE RAISED POPS MOSTLY TO CATEGORICAL, THOUGH
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW. WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTION ALSO CONTINUES, SO HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN
UNTIL NOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 21Z, ALLOWING
CEILINGS TO RISE TO LOW VFR LEVELS AT TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
HOWEVER, FOG IN THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND ONLY OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS
NORTH, EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF
COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE
ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  80  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  60  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  50  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  80  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  80  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS FOR TODAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS MORNING, SO HAVE RAISED POPS MOSTLY TO CATEGORICAL, THOUGH
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW. WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTION ALSO CONTINUES, SO HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN
UNTIL NOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW
AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS
NORTH, EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF
COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE
ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  80  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  60  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  50  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  80  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  80  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS NORTH,
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SCATTERED
WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH
WILL BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A BROAD
UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS OF
DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING. PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A
BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS THE AREA STRONGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW AND
MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A LITTLE
AFTER 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  50  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  50  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  40  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS NORTH,
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SCATTERED
WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH
WILL BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A BROAD
UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS OF
DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING. PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A
BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS THE AREA STRONGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW AND
MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A LITTLE
AFTER 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  50  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  50  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  40  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260929
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
329 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS NORTH,
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SCATTERED
WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH
WILL BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A BROAD
UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS OF
DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING. PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A
BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS THE AREA STRONGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO START THE THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE KHVR AND KLWT
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS, WITH SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  50  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  50  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  40  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260929
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
329 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS NORTH,
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SCATTERED
WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH
WILL BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A BROAD
UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS OF
DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING. PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A
BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS THE AREA STRONGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO START THE THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE KHVR AND KLWT
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS, WITH SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  50  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  50  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  40  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. UPDATED TO FRESHEN POPS, QPF,
WX, AND WND GRIDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE KHVR AND KLWT
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS, WITH SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016/

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER BLAINE COUNTY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO BUT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AND
RE-EVALUATE THEN. A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP EJECT THE DAKOTAS
DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF A BOZEMAN TO HAVRE LINE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL KEEP A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. COOL
AIR WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, AS TEMPERATURES THERE
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LOOK UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING LIFT AND
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER UPPER TROF MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DIG
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS SATURDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
CLOSED LOW AND MOVES IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS LOW THEN PROVIDES SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
STATES AND HAS A STRONGER FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS MONTANA
RESULTING IN A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TO START THE PERIOD BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  49  31  54 /  50  50  10  10
CTB  31  51  30  56 /  30  40  10  10
HLN  37  58  35  61 /  30  40  10  20
BZN  34  57  32  57 /  40  40  20  30
WEY  28  48  25  49 /  40  40  30  30
DLN  34  56  32  59 /  30  40  20  20
HVR  30  45  30  52 /  50  60  10  20
LWT  31  44  32  47 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260313
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
913 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. UPDATED TO FRESHEN POPS, QPF,
WX, AND WND GRIDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2341Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST. NORTHEASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING KHVR, ARE UNDERNEATH MOIST EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING. HOWEVER, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL
CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016/

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER BLAINE COUNTY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO BUT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AND
RE-EVALUATE THEN. A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP EJECT THE DAKOTAS
DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF A BOZEMAN TO HAVRE LINE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL KEEP A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. COOL
AIR WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, AS TEMPERATURES THERE
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LOOK UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING LIFT AND
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER UPPER TROF MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DIG
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS SATURDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
CLOSED LOW AND MOVES IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS LOW THEN PROVIDES SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
STATES AND HAS A STRONGER FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS MONTANA
RESULTING IN A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TO START THE PERIOD BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  49  31  54 /  50  50  10  10
CTB  31  51  30  56 /  30  40  10  10
HLN  37  58  35  61 /  30  40  10  20
BZN  34  57  32  57 /  40  40  20  30
WEY  28  48  25  49 /  40  40  30  30
DLN  34  56  32  59 /  30  40  20  20
HVR  30  45  30  52 /  50  60  10  20
LWT  31  44  32  47 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252344
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
543 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER BLAINE COUNTY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO BUT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AND
RE-EVALUATE THEN. A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP EJECT THE DAKOTAS
DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF A BOZEMAN TO HAVRE LINE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL KEEP A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. COOL
AIR WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, AS TEMPERATURES THERE
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LOOK UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING LIFT AND
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER UPPER TROF MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DIG
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS SATURDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
CLOSED LOW AND MOVES IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS LOW THEN PROVIDES SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
STATES AND HAS A STRONGER FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS MONTANA
RESULTING IN A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TO START THE PERIOD BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2341Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST. NORTHEASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING KHVR, ARE UNDERNEATH MOIST EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING. HOWEVER, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL
CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  49  31  54 /  60  50  10  10
CTB  31  51  30  56 /  60  40  10  10
HLN  37  58  35  61 /  50  40  10  20
BZN  34  57  32  57 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  28  48  25  49 /  60  40  30  30
DLN  34  56  32  59 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  30  45  30  52 /  60  60  10  20
LWT  31  44  32  47 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252042
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
242 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER BLAINE COUNTY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO BUT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AND
RE-EVALUATE THEN. A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP EJECT THE DAKOTAS
DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF A BOZEMAN TO HAVRE LINE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL KEEP A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. COOL
AIR WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, AS TEMPERATURES THERE
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LOOK UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING LIFT AND
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER UPPER TROF MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DIG
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS SATURDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
CLOSED LOW AND MOVES IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS LOW THEN PROVIDES SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
STATES AND HAS A STRONGER FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS MONTANA
RESULTING IN A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TO START THE PERIOD BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1752Z.

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z, BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AFTER THEN
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY. IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  49  31  54 /  60  50  10  10
CTB  31  51  30  56 /  60  40  10  10
HLN  37  58  35  61 /  50  40  10  20
BZN  34  57  32  57 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  28  48  25  49 /  60  40  30  30
DLN  34  56  32  59 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  30  45  30  52 /  60  60  10  20
LWT  31  44  32  47 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





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