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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the PoP grids.
Have lowered Pops for the remaining hours until midnight. Water
vapor imagery shows a slot of drier air moving across the area.
Convective activity over southwest Montana has decreased.
Precipitation should increase again after midnight as increasing
southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper trof over the Pacific
Northwest brings additional moisture and instability to the area.
Temperatures overnight look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday
morning. Isolated to scattered showers, with a few short-lived
embedded thunderstorms, will continue to pop-up across the region
(mainly over southwest MT from KHLN to KDLN) through 02-03Z then
dissipate tonight.  Precipitation redevelops during the overnight
period as next disturbance traveling through the broad trough pushes
into western MT. Rain should become more widespread tomorrow but
confidence is moderate at best as forecast models have been
struggling with precipitation coverage last 24 hrs. VFR conditions
expected away from any of this evening`s -SHRA/-TSRA, with MVFR
possible under any stronger cells.  Ceilings will be trending lower
overnight with broad MVFR conditions looking more likely from
KHLN/KLWT north to the US/Can border starting around 09-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 256 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Tonight through Saturday...The main message continues to be cooler
and wet. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig
southeast and develop into an upper low over Washington and Oregon
by Friday morning. The upper low will then gradually move east and
end up near the triple point between Idaho/Wyoming/Montana by late
Saturday afternoon. A series of weather disturbances ahead of the
upper low will affect the forecast area later tonight into Saturday.
Models are not in good agreement with the details of these
disturbances and also associated precipitation patterns. Thus
confidence in rainfall amounts is only in the low to moderate range.
The current best estimate on total rainfall amounts tonight through
Saturday night is 1 to 2 inches over southwest Montana and 2 to 3
inches over the plains with in excess of 3 inches for some mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front and central Montana. As for the snow
situation over the Rocky Mountain Front guidance suggests snow
levels will lower to around 8000 feet by Saturday morning but it is
not unusual for them to be lower than what guidance suggests. So
have gone with snow levels near 7000 feet over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Expect that Logan Pass will see a trace of snow late Friday
night and Saturday morning with a small chance of 1 to 2 inches.
Above 7000 feet expect 2 to 4 inches but amounts a little in excess
of a half-foot could occur. There will be isolated thunderstorms
over central/southwest Montana Friday and possibly Saturday but they
will not be severe. Inherited forecast cool temperatures look pretty
good so did not make any major changes. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Beyond
Monday, model solutions have come into better agreement with the 12Z
runs, as the ECMWF is more in line with the more consistent GFS
solution. The upper trough will move east out of the area and leave
Montana under a generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. This
will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal through
Thursday with very little chance of showers/thunderstorms.
mpj/Coulston


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  62  52  55 /  60  90 100 100
CTB  49  56  49  53 /  60  90 100 100
HLN  53  65  52  59 /  60  90 100 100
BZN  51  67  49  62 /  60  80  80  50
WEY  45  61  40  58 /  50  50  40  50
DLN  48  65  45  60 /  50  80  70  50
HVR  55  65  55  59 /  50  80 100 100
LWT  50  60  51  53 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 220252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the PoP grids.
Have lowered Pops for the remaining hours until midnight. Water
vapor imagery shows a slot of drier air moving across the area.
Convective activity over southwest Montana has decreased.
Precipitation should increase again after midnight as increasing
southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper trof over the Pacific
Northwest brings additional moisture and instability to the area.
Temperatures overnight look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday
morning. Isolated to scattered showers, with a few short-lived
embedded thunderstorms, will continue to pop-up across the region
(mainly over southwest MT from KHLN to KDLN) through 02-03Z then
dissipate tonight.  Precipitation redevelops during the overnight
period as next disturbance traveling through the broad trough pushes
into western MT. Rain should become more widespread tomorrow but
confidence is moderate at best as forecast models have been
struggling with precipitation coverage last 24 hrs. VFR conditions
expected away from any of this evening`s -SHRA/-TSRA, with MVFR
possible under any stronger cells.  Ceilings will be trending lower
overnight with broad MVFR conditions looking more likely from
KHLN/KLWT north to the US/Can border starting around 09-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 256 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Tonight through Saturday...The main message continues to be cooler
and wet. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig
southeast and develop into an upper low over Washington and Oregon
by Friday morning. The upper low will then gradually move east and
end up near the triple point between Idaho/Wyoming/Montana by late
Saturday afternoon. A series of weather disturbances ahead of the
upper low will affect the forecast area later tonight into Saturday.
Models are not in good agreement with the details of these
disturbances and also associated precipitation patterns. Thus
confidence in rainfall amounts is only in the low to moderate range.
The current best estimate on total rainfall amounts tonight through
Saturday night is 1 to 2 inches over southwest Montana and 2 to 3
inches over the plains with in excess of 3 inches for some mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front and central Montana. As for the snow
situation over the Rocky Mountain Front guidance suggests snow
levels will lower to around 8000 feet by Saturday morning but it is
not unusual for them to be lower than what guidance suggests. So
have gone with snow levels near 7000 feet over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Expect that Logan Pass will see a trace of snow late Friday
night and Saturday morning with a small chance of 1 to 2 inches.
Above 7000 feet expect 2 to 4 inches but amounts a little in excess
of a half-foot could occur. There will be isolated thunderstorms
over central/southwest Montana Friday and possibly Saturday but they
will not be severe. Inherited forecast cool temperatures look pretty
good so did not make any major changes. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Beyond
Monday, model solutions have come into better agreement with the 12Z
runs, as the ECMWF is more in line with the more consistent GFS
solution. The upper trough will move east out of the area and leave
Montana under a generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. This
will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal through
Thursday with very little chance of showers/thunderstorms.
mpj/Coulston


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  62  52  55 /  60  90 100 100
CTB  49  56  49  53 /  60  90 100 100
HLN  53  65  52  59 /  60  90 100 100
BZN  51  67  49  62 /  60  80  80  50
WEY  45  61  40  58 /  50  50  40  50
DLN  48  65  45  60 /  50  80  70  50
HVR  55  65  55  59 /  50  80 100 100
LWT  50  60  51  53 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 212351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...The main message continues to be cooler
and wet. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig
southeast and develop into an upper low over Washington and Oregon
by Friday morning. The upper low will then gradually move east and
end up near the triple point between Idaho/Wyoming/Montana by late
Saturday afternoon. A series of weather disturbances ahead of the
upper low will affect the forecast area later tonight into Saturday.
Models are not in good agreement with the details of these
disturbances and also associated precipitation patterns. Thus
confidence in rainfall amounts is only in the low to moderate range.
The current best estimate on total rainfall amounts tonight through
Saturday night is 1 to 2 inches over southwest Montana and 2 to 3
inches over the plains with in excess of 3 inches for some mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front and central Montana. As for the snow
situation over the Rocky Mountain Front guidance suggests snow
levels will lower to around 8000 feet by Saturday morning but it is
not unusual for them to be lower than what guidance suggests. So
have gone with snow levels near 7000 feet over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Expect that Logan Pass will see a trace of snow late Friday
night and Saturday morning with a small chance of 1 to 2 inches.
Above 7000 feet expect 2 to 4 inches but amounts a little in excess
of a half-foot could occur. There will be isolated thunderstorms
over central/southwest Montana Friday and possibly Saturday but they
will not be severe. Inherited forecast cool temperatures look pretty
good so did not make any major changes. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Beyond
Monday, model solutions have come into better agreement with the 12Z
runs, as the ECMWF is more in line with the more consistent GFS
solution. The upper trough will move east out of the area and leave
Montana under a generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. This
will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal through
Thursday with very little chance of showers/thunderstorms.
mpj/Coulston


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday
morning. Isolated to scattered showers, with a few short-lived
embedded thunderstorms, will continue to pop-up across the region
(mainly over southwest MT from KHLN to KDLN) through 02-03Z then
dissipate tonight.  Precipitation redevelops during the overnight
period as next disturbance traveling through the broad trough pushes
into western MT. Rain should become more widespread tomorrow but
confidence is moderate at best as forecast models have been
struggling with precipitation coverage last 24 hrs. VFR conditions
expected away from any of this evening`s -SHRA/-TSRA, with MVFR
possible under any stronger cells.  Ceilings will be trending lower
overnight with broad MVFR conditions looking more likely from
KHLN/KLWT north to the US/Can border starting around 09-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  62  52  55 /  60  90 100 100
CTB  49  56  49  53 /  60  90 100 100
HLN  53  65  52  59 /  60  90 100 100
BZN  51  67  49  62 /  60  80  80  50
WEY  45  61  40  58 /  50  50  40  50
DLN  48  65  45  60 /  50  80  70  50
HVR  55  65  55  59 /  50  80 100 100
LWT  50  60  51  53 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 212351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...The main message continues to be cooler
and wet. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig
southeast and develop into an upper low over Washington and Oregon
by Friday morning. The upper low will then gradually move east and
end up near the triple point between Idaho/Wyoming/Montana by late
Saturday afternoon. A series of weather disturbances ahead of the
upper low will affect the forecast area later tonight into Saturday.
Models are not in good agreement with the details of these
disturbances and also associated precipitation patterns. Thus
confidence in rainfall amounts is only in the low to moderate range.
The current best estimate on total rainfall amounts tonight through
Saturday night is 1 to 2 inches over southwest Montana and 2 to 3
inches over the plains with in excess of 3 inches for some mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front and central Montana. As for the snow
situation over the Rocky Mountain Front guidance suggests snow
levels will lower to around 8000 feet by Saturday morning but it is
not unusual for them to be lower than what guidance suggests. So
have gone with snow levels near 7000 feet over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Expect that Logan Pass will see a trace of snow late Friday
night and Saturday morning with a small chance of 1 to 2 inches.
Above 7000 feet expect 2 to 4 inches but amounts a little in excess
of a half-foot could occur. There will be isolated thunderstorms
over central/southwest Montana Friday and possibly Saturday but they
will not be severe. Inherited forecast cool temperatures look pretty
good so did not make any major changes. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Beyond
Monday, model solutions have come into better agreement with the 12Z
runs, as the ECMWF is more in line with the more consistent GFS
solution. The upper trough will move east out of the area and leave
Montana under a generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. This
will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal through
Thursday with very little chance of showers/thunderstorms.
mpj/Coulston


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday
morning. Isolated to scattered showers, with a few short-lived
embedded thunderstorms, will continue to pop-up across the region
(mainly over southwest MT from KHLN to KDLN) through 02-03Z then
dissipate tonight.  Precipitation redevelops during the overnight
period as next disturbance traveling through the broad trough pushes
into western MT. Rain should become more widespread tomorrow but
confidence is moderate at best as forecast models have been
struggling with precipitation coverage last 24 hrs. VFR conditions
expected away from any of this evening`s -SHRA/-TSRA, with MVFR
possible under any stronger cells.  Ceilings will be trending lower
overnight with broad MVFR conditions looking more likely from
KHLN/KLWT north to the US/Can border starting around 09-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  62  52  55 /  60  90 100 100
CTB  49  56  49  53 /  60  90 100 100
HLN  53  65  52  59 /  60  90 100 100
BZN  51  67  49  62 /  60  80  80  50
WEY  45  61  40  58 /  50  50  40  50
DLN  48  65  45  60 /  50  80  70  50
HVR  55  65  55  59 /  50  80 100 100
LWT  50  60  51  53 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 212056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...The main message continues to be cooler
and wet. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig
southeast and develop into an upper low over Washington and Oregon
by Friday morning. The upper low will then gradually move east and
end up near the triple point between Idaho/Wyoming/Montana by late
Saturday afternoon. A series of weather disturbances ahead of the
upper low will affect the forecast area later tonight into Saturday.
Models are not in good agreement with the details of these
disturbances and also associated precipitation patterns. Thus
confidence in rainfall amounts is only in the low to moderate range.
The current best estimate on total rainfall amounts tonight through
Saturday night is 1 to 2 inches over southwest Montana and 2 to 3
inches over the plains with in excess of 3 inches for some mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front and central Montana. As for the snow
situation over the Rocky Mountain Front guidance suggests snow
levels will lower to around 8000 feet by Saturday morning but it is
not unusual for them to be lower than what guidance suggests. So
have gone with snow levels near 7000 feet over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Expect that Logan Pass will see a trace of snow late Friday
night and Saturday morning with a small chance of 1 to 2 inches.
Above 7000 feet expect 2 to 4 inches but amounts a little in excess
of a half-foot could occur. There will be isolated thunderstorms
over central/southwest Montana Friday and possibly Saturday but they
will not be severe. Inherited forecast cool temperatures look pretty
good so did not make any major changes. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Beyond
Monday, model solutions have come into better agreement with the 12Z
runs, as the ECMWF is more in line with the more consistent GFS
solution. The upper trough will move east out of the area and leave
Montana under a generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. This
will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal through
Thursday with very little chance of showers/thunderstorms.
mpj/Coulston



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains at least through
Friday morning. A disturbance in the resulting westerly flow aloft
will exit the area by 02Z, bringing at least scattered showers to
most of the area during the peak daytime heating. A few
thunderstorms are also possible, but mainly along and south of a
KHLN-KLWT line. A few showers will linger across the area through
06Z. For this afternoon and evening, conditions will mostly be VFR
with some mountain obscuration, but occasional MVFR/IFR conditions
are possible with heavier showers. Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will then become more widespread from the west
after 06Z, as another disturbance begins moving into the area.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  62  52  55 /  60  90 100 100
CTB  49  56  49  53 /  60  90 100 100
HLN  53  65  52  59 /  60  90 100 100
BZN  51  67  49  62 /  60  80  80  50
WEY  45  61  40  58 /  50  50  40  50
DLN  48  65  45  60 /  50  80  70  50
HVR  55  65  55  59 /  50  80 100 100
LWT  50  60  51  53 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...The main message continues to be cooler
and wet. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig
southeast and develop into an upper low over Washington and Oregon
by Friday morning. The upper low will then gradually move east and
end up near the triple point between Idaho/Wyoming/Montana by late
Saturday afternoon. A series of weather disturbances ahead of the
upper low will affect the forecast area later tonight into Saturday.
Models are not in good agreement with the details of these
disturbances and also associated precipitation patterns. Thus
confidence in rainfall amounts is only in the low to moderate range.
The current best estimate on total rainfall amounts tonight through
Saturday night is 1 to 2 inches over southwest Montana and 2 to 3
inches over the plains with in excess of 3 inches for some mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front and central Montana. As for the snow
situation over the Rocky Mountain Front guidance suggests snow
levels will lower to around 8000 feet by Saturday morning but it is
not unusual for them to be lower than what guidance suggests. So
have gone with snow levels near 7000 feet over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Expect that Logan Pass will see a trace of snow late Friday
night and Saturday morning with a small chance of 1 to 2 inches.
Above 7000 feet expect 2 to 4 inches but amounts a little in excess
of a half-foot could occur. There will be isolated thunderstorms
over central/southwest Montana Friday and possibly Saturday but they
will not be severe. Inherited forecast cool temperatures look pretty
good so did not make any major changes. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Beyond
Monday, model solutions have come into better agreement with the 12Z
runs, as the ECMWF is more in line with the more consistent GFS
solution. The upper trough will move east out of the area and leave
Montana under a generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. This
will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal through
Thursday with very little chance of showers/thunderstorms.
mpj/Coulston



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains at least through
Friday morning. A disturbance in the resulting westerly flow aloft
will exit the area by 02Z, bringing at least scattered showers to
most of the area during the peak daytime heating. A few
thunderstorms are also possible, but mainly along and south of a
KHLN-KLWT line. A few showers will linger across the area through
06Z. For this afternoon and evening, conditions will mostly be VFR
with some mountain obscuration, but occasional MVFR/IFR conditions
are possible with heavier showers. Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will then become more widespread from the west
after 06Z, as another disturbance begins moving into the area.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  62  52  55 /  60  90 100 100
CTB  49  56  49  53 /  60  90 100 100
HLN  53  65  52  59 /  60  90 100 100
BZN  51  67  49  62 /  60  80  80  50
WEY  45  61  40  58 /  50  50  40  50
DLN  48  65  45  60 /  50  80  70  50
HVR  55  65  55  59 /  50  80 100 100
LWT  50  60  51  53 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211749
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance aloft will be moving through the forecast
area today and expect showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it.
Have left the high chances of precipitation in the forecast but
have changed wording from rain showers likely to occasional rain
showers as do not expect precipitation to last any more than a
couple of hours at any one location. Have removed the mention of
thunderstorms over the northwest forecast zones as do not see
enough instability for thunderstorms. Behind the weather
disturbance should see a little sunshine over western portions of
southwest Montana this afternoon so have changed the sky forecast
to reflect that. Generally left most high temperatures for today
alone as some guidance was indicating warmer than currently
forecast highs while other guidance was indicating cooler than
currently forecast highs. Did raise highs for today at Great Falls
and Havre slightly as had fairly high confidence in warmer
temperatures. First glance at the this mornings NAM model run
shows wet forecast for Friday through Saturday is on track. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains at least through
Friday morning. A disturbance in the resulting westerly flow aloft
will exit the area by 02Z, bringing at least scattered showers to
most of the area during the peak daytime heating. A few
thunderstorms are also possible, but mainly along and south of a
KHLN-KLWT line. A few showers will linger across the area through
06Z. For this afternoon and evening, conditions will mostly be VFR
with some mountain obscuration, but occasional MVFR/IFR conditions
are possible with heavier showers. Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will then become more widespread from the west
after 06Z, as another disturbance begins moving into the area.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014/
Today through Saturday...An upper level low pressure system is
slowly moving through the region...while a Canadian cold front has
pushed southward through the CWA. The end result is scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the region today. The precipitation has not been as widespread as
previously thought over North Central MT so far. However...because
humidities are so high...passing areas of precipitation are
possible in most areas today. Thus pops remain high for
today...even though overall QPF amounts will generally not be
significant today...and a widespread all day rain is not expected
either. The scattered precip continues tonight...again with high
pops mainly for the event. On Friday...as the upper level trof
comes close to Central MT...and a surface low develops over the
Central Rockies...better upslope conditions are expected to
develop over Central/North Central MT. Thus Friday night through
Saturday...a band of widespread precipitation is expected to move
through the region. The heaviest precip is expected over the
Rocky Mountain Front and the Central Mountain ranges...with 1.50
to 2.50 inches possible in the mountains...at lower elevations
1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible. Precip amounts will
generally be less than 1.00 inches in Southwest MT. In terms of
snow...the latest forecast models indicate snow levels should
generally be above 7500 feet in the Glacier Park region. For
now...I will leave the snow level down to the currently forecasted
snow level near 6500 feet in case latter model runs bring down
some colder air. In either case...snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches will be possible at mountain peaks over Glacier Park Friday
into Saturday. In terms of temperatures...well below normal
temperatures are expected through Saturday. There is the
potential that temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted highs should clouds/precip continue for several hours
during the afternoon hours. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Solutions
once again diverge as a jet streak moves over the ridge in the Gulf
of Alaska and moves south along the British Columbia coast. The
ECMWF depicts a stronger and faster jet thereby digging further
south along the west coast and elongating the trough southwestward
while the GFS reinforces the trough over the Northern Rockies. GFS
solution drives the trough eastward and places Montana into a
generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
develops a closed low over the west coast then drifts this feature
eastward through the Great Basin and Wyoming with wrap around
moisture being advected into Southwest Montana. At this time the GFS
is more in keeping with previous forecasts so have continued to
trend the forecast towards a warmer and dryer solution. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  51  64  52 /  70  60  90 100
CTB  61  49  58  49 /  70  60  90  90
HLN  68  53  65  52 /  60  60  90 100
BZN  69  51  67  49 /  50  60  80  80
WEY  60  45  61  40 /  40  40  50  40
DLN  69  48  65  45 /  40  50  80  70
HVR  69  55  66  55 /  70  50  80  80
LWT  62  50  60  51 /  70  60  80  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 211541
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
941 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance aloft will be moving through the forecast
area today and expect showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it.
Have left the high chances of precipitation in the forecast but
have changed wording from rain showers likely to occasional rain
showers as do not expect precipitation to last any more than a
couple of hours at any one location. Have removed the mention of
thunderstorms over the northwest forecast zones as do not see
enough instability for thunderstorms. Behind the weather
disturbance should see a little sunshine over western portions of
southwest Montana this afternoon so have changed the sky forecast
to reflect that. Generally left most high temperatures for today
alone as some guidance was indicating warmer than currently
forecast highs while other guidance was indicating cooler than
currently forecast highs. Did raise highs for today at Great Falls
and Havre slightly as had fairly high confidence in warmer
temperatures. First glance at the this mornings NAM model run
shows wet forecast for Friday through Saturday is on track. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Broad upper level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday morning. An associated
Canadian cold front will continue to push south through the region
with northerly surface winds prevailing through the period. Mid
level moisture and low level upslope flow across North Central
Montana will fuel scattered to numerous showers through the period.
MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail over North Central Montana with
VFR/MVFR conditions expected in Southwest Montana. Mountain
obscurations will be widespread across the region. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014/
Today through Saturday...An upper level low pressure system is
slowly moving through the region...while a Canadian cold front has
pushed southward through the CWA. The end result is scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the region today. The precipitation has not been as widespread as
previously thought over North Central MT so far. However...because
humidities are so high...passing areas of precipitation are
possible in most areas today. Thus pops remain high for
today...even though overall QPF amounts will generally not be
significant today...and a widespread all day rain is not expected
either. The scattered precip continues tonight...again with high
pops mainly for the event. On Friday...as the upper level trof
comes close to Central MT...and a surface low develops over the
Central Rockies...better upslope conditions are expected to
develop over Central/North Central MT. Thus Friday night through
Saturday...a band of widespread precipitation is expected to move
through the region. The heaviest precip is expected over the
Rocky Mountain Front and the Central Mountain ranges...with 1.50
to 2.50 inches possible in the mountains...at lower elevations
1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible. Precip amounts will
generally be less than 1.00 inches in Southwest MT. In terms of
snow...the latest forecast models indicate snow levels should
generally be above 7500 feet in the Glacier Park region. For
now...I will leave the snow level down to the currently forecasted
snow level near 6500 feet in case latter model runs bring down
some colder air. In either case...snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches will be possible at mountain peaks over Glacier Park Friday
into Saturday. In terms of temperatures...well below normal
temperatures are expected through Saturday. There is the
potential that temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted highs should clouds/precip continue for several hours
during the afternoon hours. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Solutions
once again diverge as a jet streak moves over the ridge in the Gulf
of Alaska and moves south along the British Columbia coast. The
ECMWF depicts a stronger and faster jet thereby digging further
south along the west coast and elongating the trough southwestward
while the GFS reinforces the trough over the Northern Rockies. GFS
solution drives the trough eastward and places Montana into a
generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
develops a closed low over the west coast then drifts this feature
eastward through the Great Basin and Wyoming with wrap around
moisture being advected into Southwest Montana. At this time the GFS
is more in keeping with previous forecasts so have continued to
trend the forecast towards a warmer and dryer solution. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  51  64  52 /  70  60  90 100
CTB  61  49  58  49 /  70  60  90  90
HLN  68  53  65  52 /  60  60  90 100
BZN  69  51  67  49 /  50  60  80  80
WEY  60  45  61  40 /  40  40  50  40
DLN  69  48  65  45 /  40  50  80  70
HVR  69  55  66  55 /  70  50  80  80
LWT  62  50  60  51 /  70  60  80  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211541
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
941 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance aloft will be moving through the forecast
area today and expect showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it.
Have left the high chances of precipitation in the forecast but
have changed wording from rain showers likely to occasional rain
showers as do not expect precipitation to last any more than a
couple of hours at any one location. Have removed the mention of
thunderstorms over the northwest forecast zones as do not see
enough instability for thunderstorms. Behind the weather
disturbance should see a little sunshine over western portions of
southwest Montana this afternoon so have changed the sky forecast
to reflect that. Generally left most high temperatures for today
alone as some guidance was indicating warmer than currently
forecast highs while other guidance was indicating cooler than
currently forecast highs. Did raise highs for today at Great Falls
and Havre slightly as had fairly high confidence in warmer
temperatures. First glance at the this mornings NAM model run
shows wet forecast for Friday through Saturday is on track. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Broad upper level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday morning. An associated
Canadian cold front will continue to push south through the region
with northerly surface winds prevailing through the period. Mid
level moisture and low level upslope flow across North Central
Montana will fuel scattered to numerous showers through the period.
MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail over North Central Montana with
VFR/MVFR conditions expected in Southwest Montana. Mountain
obscurations will be widespread across the region. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014/
Today through Saturday...An upper level low pressure system is
slowly moving through the region...while a Canadian cold front has
pushed southward through the CWA. The end result is scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the region today. The precipitation has not been as widespread as
previously thought over North Central MT so far. However...because
humidities are so high...passing areas of precipitation are
possible in most areas today. Thus pops remain high for
today...even though overall QPF amounts will generally not be
significant today...and a widespread all day rain is not expected
either. The scattered precip continues tonight...again with high
pops mainly for the event. On Friday...as the upper level trof
comes close to Central MT...and a surface low develops over the
Central Rockies...better upslope conditions are expected to
develop over Central/North Central MT. Thus Friday night through
Saturday...a band of widespread precipitation is expected to move
through the region. The heaviest precip is expected over the
Rocky Mountain Front and the Central Mountain ranges...with 1.50
to 2.50 inches possible in the mountains...at lower elevations
1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible. Precip amounts will
generally be less than 1.00 inches in Southwest MT. In terms of
snow...the latest forecast models indicate snow levels should
generally be above 7500 feet in the Glacier Park region. For
now...I will leave the snow level down to the currently forecasted
snow level near 6500 feet in case latter model runs bring down
some colder air. In either case...snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches will be possible at mountain peaks over Glacier Park Friday
into Saturday. In terms of temperatures...well below normal
temperatures are expected through Saturday. There is the
potential that temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted highs should clouds/precip continue for several hours
during the afternoon hours. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Solutions
once again diverge as a jet streak moves over the ridge in the Gulf
of Alaska and moves south along the British Columbia coast. The
ECMWF depicts a stronger and faster jet thereby digging further
south along the west coast and elongating the trough southwestward
while the GFS reinforces the trough over the Northern Rockies. GFS
solution drives the trough eastward and places Montana into a
generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
develops a closed low over the west coast then drifts this feature
eastward through the Great Basin and Wyoming with wrap around
moisture being advected into Southwest Montana. At this time the GFS
is more in keeping with previous forecasts so have continued to
trend the forecast towards a warmer and dryer solution. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  51  64  52 /  70  60  90 100
CTB  61  49  58  49 /  70  60  90  90
HLN  68  53  65  52 /  60  60  90 100
BZN  69  51  67  49 /  50  60  80  80
WEY  60  45  61  40 /  40  40  50  40
DLN  69  48  65  45 /  40  50  80  70
HVR  69  55  66  55 /  70  50  80  80
LWT  62  50  60  51 /  70  60  80  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...An upper level low pressure system is
slowly moving through the region...while a Canadian cold front has
pushed southward through the CWA. The end result is scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the region today. The precipitation has not been as widespread as
previously thought over North Central MT so far. However...because
humidities are so high...passing areas of precipitation are
possible in most areas today. Thus pops remain high for
today...even though overall QPF amounts will generally not be
significant today...and a widespread all day rain is not expected
either. The scattered precip continues tonight...again with high
pops mainly for the event. On Friday...as the upper level trof
comes close to Central MT...and a surface low develops over the
Central Rockies...better upslope conditions are expected to
develop over Central/North Central MT. Thus Friday night through
Saturday...a band of widespread precipitation is expected to move
through the region. The heaviest precip is expected over the
Rocky Mountain Front and the Central Mountain ranges...with 1.50
to 2.50 inches possible in the mountains...at lower elevations
1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible. Precip amounts will
generally be less than 1.00 inches in Southwest MT. In terms of
snow...the latest forecast models indicate snow levels should
generally be above 7500 feet in the Glacier Park region. For
now...I will leave the snow level down to the currently forecasted
snow level near 6500 feet in case latter model runs bring down
some colder air. In either case...snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches will be possible at mountain peaks over Glacier Park Friday
into Saturday. In terms of temperatures...well below normal
temperatures are expected through Saturday. There is the
potential that temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted highs should clouds/precip continue for several hours
during the afternoon hours. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Solutions
once again diverge as a jet streak moves over the ridge in the Gulf
of Alaska and moves south along the British Columbia coast. The
ECMWF depicts a stronger and faster jet thereby digging further
south along the west coast and elongating the trough southwestward
while the GFS reinforces the trough over the Northern Rockies. GFS
solution drives the trough eastward and places Montana into a
generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
develops a closed low over the west coast then drifts this feature
eastward through the Great Basin and Wyoming with wrap around
moisture being advected into Southwest Montana. At this time the GFS
is more in keeping with previous forecasts so have continued to
trend the forecast towards a warmer and dryer solution. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Broad upper level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rocky Mountains through Friday morning. An associated
Canadian cold front will continue to push south through the region
with northerly surface winds prevailing through the period. Mid
level moisture and low level upslope flow across North Central
Montana will fuel scattered to numerous showers through the period.
MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail over North Central Montana with
VFR/MVFR conditions expected in Southwest Montana. Mountain
obscurations will be widespread across the region. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  51  64  52 /  70  60  90 100
CTB  61  49  58  49 /  70  60  90  90
HLN  68  53  65  52 /  60  60  90 100
BZN  69  51  67  49 /  50  60  80  80
WEY  60  45  61  40 /  40  40  50  40
DLN  69  48  65  45 /  40  50  80  70
HVR  66  55  66  55 /  70  50  80  80
LWT  62  50  60  51 /  70  60  80  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...An upper level low pressure system is
slowly moving through the region...while a Canadian cold front has
pushed southward through the CWA. The end result is scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the region today. The precipitation has not been as widespread as
previously thought over North Central MT so far. However...because
humidities are so high...passing areas of precipitation are
possible in most areas today. Thus pops remain high for
today...even though overall QPF amounts will generally not be
significant today...and a widespread all day rain is not expected
either. The scattered precip continues tonight...again with high
pops mainly for the event. On Friday...as the upper level trof
comes close to Central MT...and a surface low develops over the
Central Rockies...better upslope conditions are expected to
develop over Central/North Central MT. Thus Friday night through
Saturday...a band of widespread precipitation is expected to move
through the region. The heaviest precip is expected over the
Rocky Mountain Front and the Central Mountain ranges...with 1.50
to 2.50 inches possible in the mountains...at lower elevations
1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible. Precip amounts will
generally be less than 1.00 inches in Southwest MT. In terms of
snow...the latest forecast models indicate snow levels should
generally be above 7500 feet in the Glacier Park region. For
now...I will leave the snow level down to the currently forecasted
snow level near 6500 feet in case latter model runs bring down
some colder air. In either case...snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches will be possible at mountain peaks over Glacier Park Friday
into Saturday. In terms of temperatures...well below normal
temperatures are expected through Saturday. There is the
potential that temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted highs should clouds/precip continue for several hours
during the afternoon hours. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Solutions
once again diverge as a jet streak moves over the ridge in the Gulf
of Alaska and moves south along the British Columbia coast. The
ECMWF depicts a stronger and faster jet thereby digging further
south along the west coast and elongating the trough southwestward
while the GFS reinforces the trough over the Northern Rockies. GFS
solution drives the trough eastward and places Montana into a
generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
develops a closed low over the west coast then drifts this feature
eastward through the Great Basin and Wyoming with wrap around
moisture being advected into Southwest Montana. At this time the GFS
is more in keeping with previous forecasts so have continued to
trend the forecast towards a warmer and dryer solution. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Scattered -SHRA continue to move through parts of central MT this
evening ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and surface cold
front. At 0430Z the front was just north of KGTF and is expected to
make slow progress southward through the overnight period.
Precipitation should become more isolated after 06Z but then
redevelop behind the front vcnty KCTB/KHVR around 09-10Z, with the
coverage of showers expanding south toward KGTF/KHLN/KLWT on Thurs
morning.  Ceilings should generally remain VFR tonight, with some
brief MVFR conditions possible under any moderate showers. As the
rain develops tomorrow morning, ceilings will gradually trend
downward to 3000-5000 ft, with better chance for MVFR ceilings from
midday onward as rain becomes more widespread.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  51  64  52 /  70  60  90 100
CTB  61  49  58  49 /  70  60  90  90
HLN  68  53  65  52 /  60  60  90 100
BZN  69  51  67  49 /  50  60  80  80
WEY  60  45  61  40 /  40  40  50  40
DLN  69  48  65  45 /  40  50  80  70
HVR  66  55  66  55 /  70  50  80  80
LWT  62  50  60  51 /  70  60  80  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 211001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...An upper level low pressure system is
slowly moving through the region...while a Canadian cold front has
pushed southward through the CWA. The end result is scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the region today. The precipitation has not been as widespread as
previously thought over North Central MT so far. However...because
humidities are so high...passing areas of precipitation are
possible in most areas today. Thus pops remain high for
today...even though overall QPF amounts will generally not be
significant today...and a widespread all day rain is not expected
either. The scattered precip continues tonight...again with high
pops mainly for the event. On Friday...as the upper level trof
comes close to Central MT...and a surface low develops over the
Central Rockies...better upslope conditions are expected to
develop over Central/North Central MT. Thus Friday night through
Saturday...a band of widespread precipitation is expected to move
through the region. The heaviest precip is expected over the
Rocky Mountain Front and the Central Mountain ranges...with 1.50
to 2.50 inches possible in the mountains...at lower elevations
1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible. Precip amounts will
generally be less than 1.00 inches in Southwest MT. In terms of
snow...the latest forecast models indicate snow levels should
generally be above 7500 feet in the Glacier Park region. For
now...I will leave the snow level down to the currently forecasted
snow level near 6500 feet in case latter model runs bring down
some colder air. In either case...snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches will be possible at mountain peaks over Glacier Park Friday
into Saturday. In terms of temperatures...well below normal
temperatures are expected through Saturday. There is the
potential that temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted highs should clouds/precip continue for several hours
during the afternoon hours. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...A slow moving upper level trough
will remain over the region through the weekend until at least
Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement on details through Monday
morning keeping a good likelihood of precipitation over the region
Saturday evening then a chance of showers into Monday. Solutions
once again diverge as a jet streak moves over the ridge in the Gulf
of Alaska and moves south along the British Columbia coast. The
ECMWF depicts a stronger and faster jet thereby digging further
south along the west coast and elongating the trough southwestward
while the GFS reinforces the trough over the Northern Rockies. GFS
solution drives the trough eastward and places Montana into a
generally dry northwest to westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
develops a closed low over the west coast then drifts this feature
eastward through the Great Basin and Wyoming with wrap around
moisture being advected into Southwest Montana. At this time the GFS
is more in keeping with previous forecasts so have continued to
trend the forecast towards a warmer and dryer solution. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Scattered -SHRA continue to move through parts of central MT this
evening ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and surface cold
front. At 0430Z the front was just north of KGTF and is expected to
make slow progress southward through the overnight period.
Precipitation should become more isolated after 06Z but then
redevelop behind the front vcnty KCTB/KHVR around 09-10Z, with the
coverage of showers expanding south toward KGTF/KHLN/KLWT on Thurs
morning.  Ceilings should generally remain VFR tonight, with some
brief MVFR conditions possible under any moderate showers. As the
rain develops tomorrow morning, ceilings will gradually trend
downward to 3000-5000 ft, with better chance for MVFR ceilings from
midday onward as rain becomes more widespread.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  51  64  52 /  70  60  90 100
CTB  61  49  58  49 /  70  60  90  90
HLN  68  53  65  52 /  60  60  90 100
BZN  69  51  67  49 /  50  60  80  80
WEY  60  45  61  40 /  40  40  50  40
DLN  69  48  65  45 /  40  50  80  70
HVR  66  55  66  55 /  70  50  80  80
LWT  62  50  60  51 /  70  60  80  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the PoP grids for
the remainder of the evening. Thunderstorm coverage has decreased
and will continue to do so through midnight. The surface cold front
continues to push south and showers will increase again in areal
coverage behind the frontal passage, with the cold front likely
reaching the Great Falls area between 11 pm and midnight. Very wet
and unsettled pattern still on track for the area the next several
days. Temperatures tonight look on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Scattered -SHRA continue to move through parts of central MT this
evening ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and surface cold
front. At 0430Z the front was just north of KGTF and is expected to
make slow progress southward through the overnight period.
Precipitation should become more isolated after 06Z but then
redevelop behind the front vcnty KCTB/KHVR around 09-10Z, with the
coverage of showers expanding south toward KGTF/KHLN/KLWT on Thurs
morning.  Ceilings should generally remain VFR tonight, with some
brief MVFR conditions possible under any moderate showers. As the
rain develops tomorrow morning, ceilings will gradually trend
downward to 3000-5000 ft, with better chance for MVFR ceilings from
midday onward as rain becomes more widespread.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 253 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 210455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the PoP grids for
the remainder of the evening. Thunderstorm coverage has decreased
and will continue to do so through midnight. The surface cold front
continues to push south and showers will increase again in areal
coverage behind the frontal passage, with the cold front likely
reaching the Great Falls area between 11 pm and midnight. Very wet
and unsettled pattern still on track for the area the next several
days. Temperatures tonight look on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Scattered -SHRA continue to move through parts of central MT this
evening ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and surface cold
front. At 0430Z the front was just north of KGTF and is expected to
make slow progress southward through the overnight period.
Precipitation should become more isolated after 06Z but then
redevelop behind the front vcnty KCTB/KHVR around 09-10Z, with the
coverage of showers expanding south toward KGTF/KHLN/KLWT on Thurs
morning.  Ceilings should generally remain VFR tonight, with some
brief MVFR conditions possible under any moderate showers. As the
rain develops tomorrow morning, ceilings will gradually trend
downward to 3000-5000 ft, with better chance for MVFR ceilings from
midday onward as rain becomes more widespread.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 253 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls













000
FXUS65 KTFX 210311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the PoP grids for
the remainder of the evening. Thunderstorm coverage has decreased
and will continue to do so through midnight. The surface cold front
continues to push south and showers will increase again in areal
coverage behind the frontal passage, with the cold front likely
reaching the Great Falls area between 11 pm and midnight. Very wet
and unsettled pattern still on track for the area the next several
days. Temperatures tonight look on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will continue to develop and move through
parts of central and southwest MT this evening ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough and surface cold front.  All local
TAFs have mention of VCTS/VCSH in varying periods between 00-06Z,
with best chance of convective activity vcnty KCTB/KHVR as the front
is already near those locations and they will be first terminals to
see the post-frontal rain tonight.  Confidence is only moderate on
timing and coverage of precipitation for late evening/tonight from
KGTF south to MT/ID border as forecast model solutions are split on
whether -SHRA will continue or stop for about 4-6 hrs then pick up
again around 0900Z as the cold front works its way south.  Expect
VFR conditions away from any -SHRA/-TSRA, with local MVFR ceilings
possible near any convective cells.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 253 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 202347
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will continue to develop and move through
parts of central and southwest MT this evening ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough and surface cold front.  All local
TAFs have mention of VCTS/VCSH in varying periods between 00-06Z,
with best chance of convective activity vcnty KCTB/KHVR as the front
is already near those locations and they will be first terminals to
see the post-frontal rain tonight.  Confidence is only moderate on
timing and coverage of precipitation for late evening/tonight from
KGTF south to MT/ID border as forecast model solutions are split on
whether -SHRA will continue or stop for about 4-6 hrs then pick up
again around 0900Z as the cold front works its way south.  Expect
VFR conditions away from any -SHRA/-TSRA, with local MVFR ceilings
possible near any convective cells.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 202347
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will continue to develop and move through
parts of central and southwest MT this evening ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough and surface cold front.  All local
TAFs have mention of VCTS/VCSH in varying periods between 00-06Z,
with best chance of convective activity vcnty KCTB/KHVR as the front
is already near those locations and they will be first terminals to
see the post-frontal rain tonight.  Confidence is only moderate on
timing and coverage of precipitation for late evening/tonight from
KGTF south to MT/ID border as forecast model solutions are split on
whether -SHRA will continue or stop for about 4-6 hrs then pick up
again around 0900Z as the cold front works its way south.  Expect
VFR conditions away from any -SHRA/-TSRA, with local MVFR ceilings
possible near any convective cells.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 202053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1751Z.
As low pressure develops over the Northern Plains, a cold front will
push southward through the forecast area this aftn and tonight.
Chances for sct SHRA/TS will increase into this evening and tonight.
Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible mostly after 06z/Thursday as
ceilings lower. Foltz/Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 202053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...A deepening upper-level trough of low
pressure will bring a period of widespread, prolonged
precipitation across the area beginning late tonight through
Friday. The Canadian surface cold front remains north of the
International Border and is expected to cross the border between 5
pm and 8 pm this evening. Instability and Pacific moisture ahead
of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph, small hail and heavy rain. This activity will
diminish after sunset before steadier rainfall develops behind
the frontal passage. The first period of rainfall will occur late
tonight into Thursday morning, then there should be a break from
midday Thursday through Thursday evening before the next round of
widespread precipitation occurs Thursday night into Friday. The
airmass will cool further Thursday night with snow levels lowering
to around 8000 feet in Glacier National Park. The coolest period
will be Friday night into Saturday morning as snow levels lower to
6500 feet in Glacier National Park. Total precipitation through
Friday will be near one inch, however an additional inch of
precipitation is possible through Sunday morning. High
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. MLV

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1751Z.
As low pressure develops over the Northern Plains, a cold front will
push southward through the forecast area this aftn and tonight.
Chances for sct SHRA/TS will increase into this evening and tonight.
Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible mostly after 06z/Thursday as
ceilings lower. Foltz/Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  66  51  64 /  80  80  60  90
CTB  51  58  47  57 /  80  80  60  90
HLN  54  72  51  67 /  70  80  60  90
BZN  50  73  49  70 /  50  80  60  70
WEY  43  63  42  59 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  47  73  45  66 /  50  50  50  70
HVR  57  66  53  67 /  80  80  60  80
LWT  54  65  50  61 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201837
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1237 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Lowered snow-levels for Friday night and Saturday morning along
the Continental Divide near Glacier National Park. Snow levels may
lower to 6500 with up to one-half inch of snow at Logan Pass and 1
to 2 inches above Logan Pass. The current forecast is on track for
afternoon thunderstorms today followed by a prolonged, widespread
rainfall event tonight through Sunday morning. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1751Z.
As low pressure develops over the Northern Plains, a cold front will
push southward through the forecast area this aftn and tonight.
Chances for sct SHRA/TS will increase into this evening and tonight.
Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible mostly after 06z/Thursday as
ceilings lower. Foltz/Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1151 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

735 AM update...Showers/thunderstorms have become a bit more
widespread west of the Continental Divide this morning, so have
raised POPs to categorical along there throughout the day. No other
updates needed at this time. Coulston

550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  80  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  80  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  80  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  80  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  80  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1151 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

735 AM update...Showers/thunderstorms have become a bit more
widespread west of the Continental Divide this morning, so have
raised POPs to categorical along there throughout the day. No other
updates needed at this time. Coulston

550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1751Z.
As low pressure develops over the Northern Plains, a cold front will
push southward through the forecast area this aftn and tonight.
Chances for sct SHRA/TS will increase into this evening and tonight.
Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible mostly after 06z/Thursday as
ceilings lower. Foltz/Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for the West Yellowstone area.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 201751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1151 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

735 AM update...Showers/thunderstorms have become a bit more
widespread west of the Continental Divide this morning, so have
raised POPs to categorical along there throughout the day. No other
updates needed at this time. Coulston

550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1751Z.
As low pressure develops over the Northern Plains, a cold front will
push southward through the forecast area this aftn and tonight.
Chances for sct SHRA/TS will increase into this evening and tonight.
Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible mostly after 06z/Thursday as
ceilings lower. Foltz/Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for the West Yellowstone area.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 201334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
735 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

735 AM update...Showers/thunderstorms have become a bit more
widespread west of the Continental Divide this morning, so have
raised POPs to categorical along there throughout the day. No other
updates needed at this time. Coulston

550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
An upper level trough continues to develop over the Northern Rockies
and an associated surface cold front will push south out of Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area today before changing over to a widespread rain
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through about 00Z Thursday
when low clouds and light rain will cause areas MVFR conditions. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for the West Yellowstone area.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
735 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

735 AM update...Showers/thunderstorms have become a bit more
widespread west of the Continental Divide this morning, so have
raised POPs to categorical along there throughout the day. No other
updates needed at this time. Coulston

550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
An upper level trough continues to develop over the Northern Rockies
and an associated surface cold front will push south out of Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area today before changing over to a widespread rain
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through about 00Z Thursday
when low clouds and light rain will cause areas MVFR conditions. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for the West Yellowstone area.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
An upper level trough continues to develop over the Northern Rockies
and an associated surface cold front will push south out of Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area today before changing over to a widespread rain
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through about 00Z Thursday
when low clouds and light rain will cause areas MVFR conditions. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for the West Yellowstone area.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
550 AM Update...Have issued a dense fog advisory for the West
Yellowstone area until 10 AM this morning.

Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
An upper level trough continues to develop over the Northern Rockies
and an associated surface cold front will push south out of Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area today before changing over to a widespread rain
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through about 00Z Thursday
when low clouds and light rain will cause areas MVFR conditions. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for the West Yellowstone area.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 201143
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
An upper level trough continues to develop over the Northern Rockies
and an associated surface cold front will push south out of Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area today before changing over to a widespread rain
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through about 00Z Thursday
when low clouds and light rain will cause areas MVFR conditions. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201143
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
An upper level trough continues to develop over the Northern Rockies
and an associated surface cold front will push south out of Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area today before changing over to a widespread rain
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through about 00Z Thursday
when low clouds and light rain will cause areas MVFR conditions. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 200938
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0930Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through today.
Locations across the north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will
see lowered ceilings behind a passing cold front today. MVFR CIGS
are possible across this area through early this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 200938
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0930Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through today.
Locations across the north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will
see lowered ceilings behind a passing cold front today. MVFR CIGS
are possible across this area through early this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 200442
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1041 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
An upper level trough is approaching the Northern Rockies this
evening and moisture is increasing in the mid-upper levels. One
shortwave within the broader trough was approaching the ID
panhandle while another moves in to SW MT this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of these features are diminishing
in coverage but a few isolated showers/storms will continue though
the overnight period as the upper trough continues to move into
the region. Have increased pops some for the remainder of tonight
to cover most of the forecast area with an isolated risk.
Otherwise, forecast is in good shape. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0441Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the
evening. An upper level low pressure trof over the Pacific Northwest
will move over the Rockies tonight. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border near the Rockies around midnight and move
to the southeast through Central Montana. Locations across the
north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will see lowered ceilings
behind the front. MVFR CIGS are possible across this area after
midnight through early morning Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 542 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak
shortwave energy embedded within the trough will continue to keep a
chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though
locations over the plains should remain dry before the pattern
changes on Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  20  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  30  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  60  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  20  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 200442
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1041 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
An upper level trough is approaching the Northern Rockies this
evening and moisture is increasing in the mid-upper levels. One
shortwave within the broader trough was approaching the ID
panhandle while another moves in to SW MT this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of these features are diminishing
in coverage but a few isolated showers/storms will continue though
the overnight period as the upper trough continues to move into
the region. Have increased pops some for the remainder of tonight
to cover most of the forecast area with an isolated risk.
Otherwise, forecast is in good shape. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0441Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the
evening. An upper level low pressure trof over the Pacific Northwest
will move over the Rockies tonight. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border near the Rockies around midnight and move
to the southeast through Central Montana. Locations across the
north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will see lowered ceilings
behind the front. MVFR CIGS are possible across this area after
midnight through early morning Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 542 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak
shortwave energy embedded within the trough will continue to keep a
chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though
locations over the plains should remain dry before the pattern
changes on Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  20  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  30  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  60  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  20  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 200313
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
913 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
An upper level trough is approaching the Northern Rockies this
evening and moisture is increasing in the mid-upper levels. One
shortwave within the broader trough was approaching the ID
panhandle while another moves in to SW MT this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of these features are diminishing
in coverage but a few isolated showers/storms will continue though
the overnight period as the upper trough continues to move into
the region. Have increased pops some for the remainder of tonight
to cover most of the forecast area with an isolated risk.
Otherwise, forecast is in good shape. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the
evening. An upper level low pressure trof over the Pacific Northwest
will move over the Rockies tonight. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border near the Rockies around midnight and move
to the southeast through Central Montana. Locations across the
north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will see lowered ceilings
behind the front. MVFR CIGS are possible across this area after
midnight through early morning Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 542 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak
shortwave energy embedded within the trough will continue to keep a
chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though
locations over the plains should remain dry before the pattern
changes on Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  20  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  30  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  60  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  20  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 200313
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
913 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
An upper level trough is approaching the Northern Rockies this
evening and moisture is increasing in the mid-upper levels. One
shortwave within the broader trough was approaching the ID
panhandle while another moves in to SW MT this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of these features are diminishing
in coverage but a few isolated showers/storms will continue though
the overnight period as the upper trough continues to move into
the region. Have increased pops some for the remainder of tonight
to cover most of the forecast area with an isolated risk.
Otherwise, forecast is in good shape. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the
evening. An upper level low pressure trof over the Pacific Northwest
will move over the Rockies tonight. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border near the Rockies around midnight and move
to the southeast through Central Montana. Locations across the
north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will see lowered ceilings
behind the front. MVFR CIGS are possible across this area after
midnight through early morning Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 542 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak
shortwave energy embedded within the trough will continue to keep a
chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though
locations over the plains should remain dry before the pattern
changes on Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  20  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  30  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  60  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  20  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 192342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
542 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak
shortwave energy embedded within the trough will continue to keep a
chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though
locations over the plains should remain dry before the pattern
changes on Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the
evening. An upper level low pressure trof over the Pacific Northwest
will move over the Rockies tonight. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border near the Rockies around midnight and move
to the southeast through Central Montana. Locations across the
north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will see lowered ceilings
behind the front. MVFR CIGS are possible across this area after
midnight through early morning Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  10  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  10  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  10  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 192342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
542 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak
shortwave energy embedded within the trough will continue to keep a
chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though
locations over the plains should remain dry before the pattern
changes on Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the
evening. An upper level low pressure trof over the Pacific Northwest
will move over the Rockies tonight. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border near the Rockies around midnight and move
to the southeast through Central Montana. Locations across the
north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will see lowered ceilings
behind the front. MVFR CIGS are possible across this area after
midnight through early morning Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  10  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  10  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  10  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 192047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated. Meanwhile,
a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to deepen over
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave energy
embedded within the trough will continue to keep a chance of
thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though locations over
the plains should remain dry before the pattern changes on
Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Increasing west winds are expected across the north-central plains
this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts possible as a cold front
approaches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible after
21z but confidence is low on thunderstorm coverage so have added
VCSH for most TAF locations and will continue to monitor. An
upper-level trough of low pressure and associated surface cold
front will begin to push into Montana tonight after 06z and winds
will shift north-northwest. A period of MVFR conditions are
possible at KCTB late tonight and Wednesday morning as moisture
and cooler air begin to push in behind the cold frontal passage.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  10  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  10  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  10  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 192047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as Pacific moisture and weak surface front
move across the area. Most of this convection will stay confined
to higher terrain, however a few showers and storms may move over
the plains. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain may accompany some
stronger storms, however severe weather is not anticipated. Meanwhile,
a large-scale trough of low pressure will continue to deepen over
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Weak shortwave energy
embedded within the trough will continue to keep a chance of
thunderstorms along the Continental Divide, though locations over
the plains should remain dry before the pattern changes on
Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be near seasonal averages.

For Thursday...northerly surface winds...combined with cloud cover
and precip...will allow for much cooler temperatures to move into
the region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s over the
north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC are the
most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda/MLV

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Increasing west winds are expected across the north-central plains
this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts possible as a cold front
approaches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible after
21z but confidence is low on thunderstorm coverage so have added
VCSH for most TAF locations and will continue to monitor. An
upper-level trough of low pressure and associated surface cold
front will begin to push into Montana tonight after 06z and winds
will shift north-northwest. A period of MVFR conditions are
possible at KCTB late tonight and Wednesday morning as moisture
and cooler air begin to push in behind the cold frontal passage.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  82  55  67 /  10  40  60  70
CTB  53  75  50  62 /  10  60  70  70
HLN  56  83  53  70 /  20  40  50  70
BZN  53  83  51  74 /  30  40  50  70
WEY  45  70  44  65 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  49  78  48  74 /  30  40  50  50
HVR  59  83  57  67 /  10  20  60  70
LWT  57  80  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 191741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1141 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Current forecast is on track this morning so did not make any
changes to the forecast. An isolated thunderstorm is possible in
higher terrain along the Continental Divide this afternoon and
evening, however severe weather is not anticipated. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Increasing west winds are expected across the north-central plains
this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts possible as a cold front
approaches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible after
21z but confidence is low on thunderstorm coverage so have added
VCSH for most TAF locations and will continue to monitor. An
upper-level trough of low pressure and associated surface cold
front will begin to push into Montana tonight after 06z and winds
will shift north-northwest. A period of MVFR conditions are
possible at KCTB late tonight and Wednesday morning as moisture
and cooler air begin to push in behind the cold frontal passage.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014/
Today through Thursday...Today should be the last very warm day
for most locations for quite awhile...as a change in the weather
pattern will start to occur by Wednesday evening.

For today...an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to
move eastward away from the region. This will allow for a warm
southerly flow to develop over the region...with afternoon highs
mostly ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again there will
be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm...mainly south of a
line from Dillon to Bozeman and up in the Glacier Park region.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be on the warm side...but with
increasing cloud cover they should not be as warm as Tuesday.

For Thursday...the biggest change is the northerly surface
winds...combined with cloud cover and precip...will allow for much
cooler temperatures to move into the region a day earlier than
previously thought. Thus afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s
over the north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC
are the most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.40 to 0.70 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  57  82  55 /  10  10  40  60
CTB  84  53  75  50 /  10  10  60  70
HLN  90  56  83  53 /  10  10  40  50
BZN  89  53  83  51 /  20  30  40  50
WEY  77  45  70  44 /  30  40  50  50
DLN  85  49  78  48 /  20  20  40  50
HVR  92  59  83  57 /  10  10  40  50
LWT  88  57  80  53 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 191741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1141 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Current forecast is on track this morning so did not make any
changes to the forecast. An isolated thunderstorm is possible in
higher terrain along the Continental Divide this afternoon and
evening, however severe weather is not anticipated. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Increasing west winds are expected across the north-central plains
this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts possible as a cold front
approaches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible after
21z but confidence is low on thunderstorm coverage so have added
VCSH for most TAF locations and will continue to monitor. An
upper-level trough of low pressure and associated surface cold
front will begin to push into Montana tonight after 06z and winds
will shift north-northwest. A period of MVFR conditions are
possible at KCTB late tonight and Wednesday morning as moisture
and cooler air begin to push in behind the cold frontal passage.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014/
Today through Thursday...Today should be the last very warm day
for most locations for quite awhile...as a change in the weather
pattern will start to occur by Wednesday evening.

For today...an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to
move eastward away from the region. This will allow for a warm
southerly flow to develop over the region...with afternoon highs
mostly ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again there will
be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm...mainly south of a
line from Dillon to Bozeman and up in the Glacier Park region.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be on the warm side...but with
increasing cloud cover they should not be as warm as Tuesday.

For Thursday...the biggest change is the northerly surface
winds...combined with cloud cover and precip...will allow for much
cooler temperatures to move into the region a day earlier than
previously thought. Thus afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s
over the north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC
are the most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.40 to 0.70 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  57  82  55 /  10  10  40  60
CTB  84  53  75  50 /  10  10  60  70
HLN  90  56  83  53 /  10  10  40  50
BZN  89  53  83  51 /  20  30  40  50
WEY  77  45  70  44 /  30  40  50  50
DLN  85  49  78  48 /  20  20  40  50
HVR  92  59  83  57 /  10  10  40  50
LWT  88  57  80  53 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 191141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...Temperatures turning quite a bit cooler as early as Thursday
over North Central MT...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Today should be the last very warm day
for most locations for quite awhile...as a change in the weather
pattern will start to occur by Wednesday evening.

For today...an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to
move eastward away from the region. This will allow for a warm
southerly flow to develop over the region...with afternoon highs
mostly ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again there will
be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm...mainly south of a
line from Dillon to Bozeman and up in the Glacier Park region.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be on the warm side...but with
increasing cloud cover they should not be as warm as Tuesday.

For Thursday...the biggest change is the northerly surface
winds...combined with cloud cover and precip...will allow for much
cooler temperatures to move into the region a day earlier than
previously thought. Thus afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s
over the north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC
are the most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.40 to 0.70 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough will develop over Western Canada and the Northern
Rocky Mountains through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms can be expected over the western and southwest
mountains after 18Z with a few storms moving out over the plains.
Breezy westerly winds will develop over North Central Montana this
afternoon and evening before a surface cold front moves south from
Canada with winds shifting to the north-northwest. VFR conditions
expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  57  82  55 /  10  10  40  60
CTB  84  53  75  50 /  10  10  60  70
HLN  90  56  83  53 /  10  10  40  50
BZN  89  53  83  51 /  20  30  40  50
WEY  77  45  70  44 /  30  40  50  50
DLN  85  49  78  48 /  20  20  40  50
HVR  92  59  83  57 /   0  10  40  50
LWT  88  57  80  53 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 191141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...Temperatures turning quite a bit cooler as early as Thursday
over North Central MT...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Today should be the last very warm day
for most locations for quite awhile...as a change in the weather
pattern will start to occur by Wednesday evening.

For today...an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to
move eastward away from the region. This will allow for a warm
southerly flow to develop over the region...with afternoon highs
mostly ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again there will
be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm...mainly south of a
line from Dillon to Bozeman and up in the Glacier Park region.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be on the warm side...but with
increasing cloud cover they should not be as warm as Tuesday.

For Thursday...the biggest change is the northerly surface
winds...combined with cloud cover and precip...will allow for much
cooler temperatures to move into the region a day earlier than
previously thought. Thus afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s
over the north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC
are the most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.40 to 0.70 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough will develop over Western Canada and the Northern
Rocky Mountains through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms can be expected over the western and southwest
mountains after 18Z with a few storms moving out over the plains.
Breezy westerly winds will develop over North Central Montana this
afternoon and evening before a surface cold front moves south from
Canada with winds shifting to the north-northwest. VFR conditions
expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  57  82  55 /  10  10  40  60
CTB  84  53  75  50 /  10  10  60  70
HLN  90  56  83  53 /  10  10  40  50
BZN  89  53  83  51 /  20  30  40  50
WEY  77  45  70  44 /  30  40  50  50
DLN  85  49  78  48 /  20  20  40  50
HVR  92  59  83  57 /   0  10  40  50
LWT  88  57  80  53 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 190957
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Temperatures turning quite a bit cooler as early as Thursday
over North Central MT...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Today should be the last very warm day
for most locations for quite awhile...as a change in the weather
pattern will start to occur by Wednesday evening.

For today...an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to
move eastward away from the region. This will allow for a warm
southerly flow to develop over the region...with afternoon highs
mostly ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again there will
be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm...mainly south of a
line from Dillon to Bozeman and up in the Glacier Park region.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be on the warm side...but with
increasing cloud cover they should not be as warm as Tuesday.

For Thursday...the biggest change is the northerly surface
winds...combined with cloud cover and precip...will allow for much
cooler temperatures to move into the region a day earlier than
previously thought. Thus afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s
over the north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC
are the most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.40 to 0.70 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0356Z.
Weak high pressure aloft will generally keep the air mass warm and
dry. A slight chance for shower or thunderstorm development is
expected over Southwest Montana Tuesday afternoon but areas north
should be free from any convection. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  57  82  55 /  10  10  40  60
CTB  84  53  75  50 /  10  10  60  70
HLN  90  56  83  53 /  10  10  40  50
BZN  89  53  83  51 /  20  30  40  50
WEY  77  45  70  44 /  30  40  50  50
DLN  85  49  78  48 /  20  20  40  50
HVR  92  59  83  57 /   0  10  40  50
LWT  88  57  80  53 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 190957
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Temperatures turning quite a bit cooler as early as Thursday
over North Central MT...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Today should be the last very warm day
for most locations for quite awhile...as a change in the weather
pattern will start to occur by Wednesday evening.

For today...an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to
move eastward away from the region. This will allow for a warm
southerly flow to develop over the region...with afternoon highs
mostly ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again there will
be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm...mainly south of a
line from Dillon to Bozeman and up in the Glacier Park region.

For Wednesday...expect a Canadian cold front to begin to push
southward into the region by late afternoon and through the
evening hours. There will be enough instability that scattered
thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage. It does not
appear there will be enough instability for any severe storms at
this time. Afternoon highs will be on the warm side...but with
increasing cloud cover they should not be as warm as Tuesday.

For Thursday...the biggest change is the northerly surface
winds...combined with cloud cover and precip...will allow for much
cooler temperatures to move into the region a day earlier than
previously thought. Thus afternoon highs will mostly be in the 60s
over the north and in the lower 70s over the southwest. The GFS/EC
are the most widespread with the precip on Thursday...with the NAM
confining the main area of precip to the mountains. With the
northerly upslope...the precip should generally be a bit more
widespread...thus prefer the GFS/EC models for now...and have
rather high pops over much of North Central and Central MT.
Overall precip amounts of 0.40 to 0.70 will be possible over much
of North Central and Central Montana from Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that cooler and much wetter conditions will prevail late
this week and through much of the upcoming weekend. Objective
guidance temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler and
are in better agreement with the raw model solutions which are much
below seasonal averages through the weekend. Models also continue to
suggest that higher elevations of Glacier Park could see a mix of
rain and snow with minor accumulations possible, but at this time it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models solutions remain somewhat divergent for Sunday through
Monday but have reversed solutions with the ECMWF now keeping
troughing over the Northern Rockies while the GFS brings shortwave
ridging over the region on Monday. By Tuesday both models trend back
toward swinging another shortwave through Montana for another chance
of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty during this period I have
kept temperatures below seasonal averages with little change from
day to day and trended toward climatological PoPs. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0356Z.
Weak high pressure aloft will generally keep the air mass warm and
dry. A slight chance for shower or thunderstorm development is
expected over Southwest Montana Tuesday afternoon but areas north
should be free from any convection. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  57  82  55 /  10  10  40  60
CTB  84  53  75  50 /  10  10  60  70
HLN  90  56  83  53 /  10  10  40  50
BZN  89  53  83  51 /  20  30  40  50
WEY  77  45  70  44 /  30  40  50  50
DLN  85  49  78  48 /  20  20  40  50
HVR  92  59  83  57 /   0  10  40  50
LWT  88  57  80  53 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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