Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KTFX 251134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Gusty westerly winds will persist today along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains as an upper-level low
over southern Canada gradually shifts east. Have continued the High
Wind Warning through this afternoon for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and eastern Glacier county. Breezy west winds of 20 to 30 mph
and gusts up to 40 mph are also expected in eastern portions of the
forecast area including Hill, Blaine, Chouteau and Fergus counties.
In addition to the breezy west winds, afternoon RH values near 20
percent will lead to critical fire weather conditions for Fire Zones
113 and 115 and have issued a Red Flag Warning from Noon today to
Midnight. By tonight, a ridge of high pressure will build into the
area allowing for winds to decrease. This upper-level ridge will
remain over the Northern Rockies through the weekend yielding mainly
dry and warm conditions as well as lighter winds. The only exception
is in far southwest Montana where limited Monsoonal moisture and
instability may trigger an isolated thunderstorm. MLV

Sunday night through Friday...Montana will remain beneath an upper
level ridge for the entire forecast period. This pattern will lead
to mostly dry conditions with increasing temperatures through
mid-week as the ridge axis remains over the Northern Rocky
Mountains. Wild card in this pattern will be how much monsoonal
moisture will be able to work it`s way northward along the leading
edge of the ridge. Pattern suggests that isolated thunderstorm
activity could be possible in far Southwest Montana through much of
the period. However, the best chance for isolated convection to work
it`s way into Central Montana appears to be later in the week as
models depict a disturbance moving northward through the Great Basin
Wednesday and moving into Western Montana on Thursday. Confidence in
timing and coverage is low at this time, especially given the
strength of the upper ridge. Main impact during the upcoming week
will be the continued curing of fuels and the increasing likelihood
that despite the low chances for thunderstorm activity, any storms
that do form will be dry thereby increasing fire danger. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Skies will remain mostly clear with widespread VFR conditions
through Saturday morning. Strong and gusty westerly winds along the
east slopes of the Rockies and over the adjacent plains will
continue through early evening before diminishing. mpj

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from Noon to Midnight for
Zones 113 and 115. The combination of minimum relative humidity
values around 20 percent and gusty west winds sustained at 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will create critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  49  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  74  47  76  48 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  81  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  80  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  73  34  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  78  46  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  51  79  51 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  80  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 250938
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Gusty westerly winds will persist today along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains as an upper-level low
over southern Canada gradually shifts east. Have continued the High
Wind Warning through this afternoon for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and eastern Glacier county. Breezy west winds of 20 to 30 mph
and gusts up to 40 mph are also expected in eastern portions of the
forecast area including Hill, Blaine, Chouteau and Fergus counties.
In addition to the breezy west winds, afternoon RH values near 20
percent will lead to critical fire weather conditions for Fire Zones
113 and 115 and have issued a Red Flag Warning from Noon today to
Midnight. By tonight, a ridge of high pressure will build into the
area allowing for winds to decrease. This upper-level ridge will
remain over the Northern Rockies through the weekend yielding mainly
dry and warm conditions as well as lighter winds. The only exception
is in far southwest Montana where limited Monsoonal moisture and
instability may trigger an isolated thunderstorm. MLV

Sunday night through Friday...Montana will remain beneath an upper
level ridge for the entire forecast period. This pattern will lead
to mostly dry conditions with increasing temperatures through
mid-week as the ridge axis remains over the Northern Rocky
Mountains. Wild card in this pattern will be how much monsoonal
moisture will be able to work it`s way northward along the leading
edge of the ridge. Pattern suggests that isolated thunderstorm
activity could be possible in far Southwest Montana through much of
the period. However, the best chance for isolated convection to work
it`s way into Central Montana appears to be later in the week as
models depict a disturbance moving northward through the Great Basin
Wednesday and moving into Western Montana on Thursday. Confidence in
timing and coverage is low at this time, especially given the
strength of the upper ridge. Main impact during the upcoming week
will be the continued curing of fuels and the increasing likelihood
that despite the low chances for thunderstorm activity, any storms
that do form will be dry thereby increasing fire danger. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0432Z.
Winds will continue to diminish through the evening but will
strengthen again Friday.  VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from Noon to Midnight for
Zones 113 and 115. The combination of minimum relative humidity
values around 20 percent and gusty west winds sustained at 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will create critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  49  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  74  47  76  48 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  81  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  80  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  73  34  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  78  46  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  51  79  51 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  80  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 250938
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Gusty westerly winds will persist today along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains as an upper-level low
over southern Canada gradually shifts east. Have continued the High
Wind Warning through this afternoon for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and eastern Glacier county. Breezy west winds of 20 to 30 mph
and gusts up to 40 mph are also expected in eastern portions of the
forecast area including Hill, Blaine, Chouteau and Fergus counties.
In addition to the breezy west winds, afternoon RH values near 20
percent will lead to critical fire weather conditions for Fire Zones
113 and 115 and have issued a Red Flag Warning from Noon today to
Midnight. By tonight, a ridge of high pressure will build into the
area allowing for winds to decrease. This upper-level ridge will
remain over the Northern Rockies through the weekend yielding mainly
dry and warm conditions as well as lighter winds. The only exception
is in far southwest Montana where limited Monsoonal moisture and
instability may trigger an isolated thunderstorm. MLV

Sunday night through Friday...Montana will remain beneath an upper
level ridge for the entire forecast period. This pattern will lead
to mostly dry conditions with increasing temperatures through
mid-week as the ridge axis remains over the Northern Rocky
Mountains. Wild card in this pattern will be how much monsoonal
moisture will be able to work it`s way northward along the leading
edge of the ridge. Pattern suggests that isolated thunderstorm
activity could be possible in far Southwest Montana through much of
the period. However, the best chance for isolated convection to work
it`s way into Central Montana appears to be later in the week as
models depict a disturbance moving northward through the Great Basin
Wednesday and moving into Western Montana on Thursday. Confidence in
timing and coverage is low at this time, especially given the
strength of the upper ridge. Main impact during the upcoming week
will be the continued curing of fuels and the increasing likelihood
that despite the low chances for thunderstorm activity, any storms
that do form will be dry thereby increasing fire danger. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0432Z.
Winds will continue to diminish through the evening but will
strengthen again Friday.  VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from Noon to Midnight for
Zones 113 and 115. The combination of minimum relative humidity
values around 20 percent and gusty west winds sustained at 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will create critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  49  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  74  47  76  48 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  81  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  80  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  73  34  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  78  46  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  51  79  51 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  80  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 250432
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1032 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Other than some low clouds along/just east of the Rocky Mtn Front,
skies are clear across the region.  Unfortunately, winds are still
gusting in the 40-50 mph range near Cut Bank, so the high wind
warning remains in effect until midnight there.  Likewise, the Red
Flag Warning over Chouteau/Fergus/parts of Blaine County remains in
effect as humidities in some spots have yet to recover above 25%
with winds still gusting 30-40 mph.

Current satellite imagery shows the upper-level low pressure system
causing the gusty winds has drifted more north than east and is
nearly stationary in south-central Alberta.  Forecast models show
the low center drifting gradually eastward tonight, but the longer
that takes, the longer the breezy-to-gusty winds will continue,
especially across the Hiline counties.

Going forecast in good shape.  Only adjustment made was to limit any
mention of precipitation to the northern Rocky Mtn Front and reduce
cloud cover across the region to match current observations.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0432Z.
Winds will continue to diminish through the evening but will
strengthen again Friday.  VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov












000
FXUS65 KTFX 250354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Other than some low clouds along/just east of the Rocky Mtn Front,
skies are clear across the region.  Unfortunately, winds are still
gusting in the 40-50 mph range near Cut Bank, so the high wind
warning remains in effect until midnight there.  Likewise, the Red
Flag Warning over Chouteau/Fergus/parts of Blaine County remains in
effect as humidities in some spots have yet to recover above 25%
with winds still gusting 30-40 mph.

Current satellite imagery shows the upper-level low pressure system
causing the gusty winds has drifted more north than east and is
nearly stationary in south-central Alberta.  Forecast models show
the low center drifting gradually eastward tonight, but the longer
that takes, the longer the breezy-to-gusty winds will continue,
especially across the Hiline counties.

Going forecast in good shape.  Only adjustment made was to limit any
mention of precipitation to the northern Rocky Mtn Front and reduce
cloud cover across the region to match current observations.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2246Z.
Brisk winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient are causing
very strong winds across the Rockies and adjacent plains.  Gusts in
excess of 60 mph are expected through late this evening. Winds will
diminish during the night but become brisk again by noon Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 250354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Other than some low clouds along/just east of the Rocky Mtn Front,
skies are clear across the region.  Unfortunately, winds are still
gusting in the 40-50 mph range near Cut Bank, so the high wind
warning remains in effect until midnight there.  Likewise, the Red
Flag Warning over Chouteau/Fergus/parts of Blaine County remains in
effect as humidities in some spots have yet to recover above 25%
with winds still gusting 30-40 mph.

Current satellite imagery shows the upper-level low pressure system
causing the gusty winds has drifted more north than east and is
nearly stationary in south-central Alberta.  Forecast models show
the low center drifting gradually eastward tonight, but the longer
that takes, the longer the breezy-to-gusty winds will continue,
especially across the Hiline counties.

Going forecast in good shape.  Only adjustment made was to limit any
mention of precipitation to the northern Rocky Mtn Front and reduce
cloud cover across the region to match current observations.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2246Z.
Brisk winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient are causing
very strong winds across the Rockies and adjacent plains.  Gusts in
excess of 60 mph are expected through late this evening. Winds will
diminish during the night but become brisk again by noon Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 242246
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
446 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2246Z.
Brisk winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient are causing
very strong winds across the Rockies and adjacent plains.  Gusts in
excess of 60 mph are expected through late this evening. Winds will
diminish during the night but become brisk again by noon Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 242246
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
446 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2246Z.
Brisk winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient are causing
very strong winds across the Rockies and adjacent plains.  Gusts in
excess of 60 mph are expected through late this evening. Winds will
diminish during the night but become brisk again by noon Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 242050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this
morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough in an area of
unstable air, between KCTB and a KBTM-KHVR line. Am expecting this
development to move east across the area through 00Z as the
shortwave moves into the area. These storms should be fairly weak
and likely only produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds, with small
hail possible. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with heavier rain.
Otherwise, the main impact to the area will be strong westerly winds
driven by the shortwave. Winds are already fairly strong at KCTB,
and these winds will increase from west to east across the area. The
strongest winds are expected to be along the Rocky Mountain Front
and along the Hi-Line where gusts will likely exceed 40 kt at times.
From the KLWT area into southwest Montana, winds will not be quite
as strong. As the shortwave exits the area after 00Z, winds will
gradually decrease, but they will remain breezy over the plains of
north central Montana.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 242050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A closed upper low and associated trof
will continue to move rapidly east across southern Canada
overnight. A surface cold front is currently moving east across
the Hi-Line with thunderstorms developing ahead and along the
front. Some of these storms are strong with gusty winds and hail.
Most of the convective activity should be out of the area by 00z.
Gusty westerly winds are occurring behind the front with the
strongest winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and over
Glacier and Toole Counties. A high wind warning remains in effect
for this area until midnight. The Red Flag Warning also continues
until midnight. Ridging develops on Friday and will last into the
weekend bringing dry and warmer conditions.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area, highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather, this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this
morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough in an area of
unstable air, between KCTB and a KBTM-KHVR line. Am expecting this
development to move east across the area through 00Z as the
shortwave moves into the area. These storms should be fairly weak
and likely only produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds, with small
hail possible. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with heavier rain.
Otherwise, the main impact to the area will be strong westerly winds
driven by the shortwave. Winds are already fairly strong at KCTB,
and these winds will increase from west to east across the area. The
strongest winds are expected to be along the Rocky Mountain Front
and along the Hi-Line where gusts will likely exceed 40 kt at times.
From the KLWT area into southwest Montana, winds will not be quite
as strong. As the shortwave exits the area after 00Z, winds will
gradually decrease, but they will remain breezy over the plains of
north central Montana.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues until midnight for zones 113 and
115. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds are
near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  78  49  79 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  53  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  81  44  81 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  73  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  53  80  52  79 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  79  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Chouteau...
Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 241741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper low continues to track east across
southern Canada. Low level moisture and shear values of 50 kts or
greater along the Hi-Line have resulted in isolated thunderstorms
this morning. Have increased POPs for this area for the remainder of
the morning. West winds have begun to increase where the high wind
warning is currently out. Temperatures look OK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this
morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough in an area of
unstable air, between KCTB and a KBTM-KHVR line. Am expecting this
development to move east across the area through 00Z as the
shortwave moves into the area. These storms should be fairly weak
and likely only produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds, with small
hail possible. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with heavier rain.
Otherwise, the main impact to the area will be strong westerly winds
driven by the shortwave. Winds are already fairly strong at KCTB,
and these winds will increase from west to east across the area. The
strongest winds are expected to be along the Rocky Mountain Front
and along the Hi-Line where gusts will likely exceed 40 kt at times.
From the KLWT area into southwest Montana, winds will not be quite
as strong. As the shortwave exits the area after 00Z, winds will
gradually decrease, but they will remain breezy over the plains of
north central Montana.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 348 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  71  50  72  47 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov













000
FXUS65 KTFX 241741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper low continues to track east across
southern Canada. Low level moisture and shear values of 50 kts or
greater along the Hi-Line have resulted in isolated thunderstorms
this morning. Have increased POPs for this area for the remainder of
the morning. West winds have begun to increase where the high wind
warning is currently out. Temperatures look OK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this
morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough in an area of
unstable air, between KCTB and a KBTM-KHVR line. Am expecting this
development to move east across the area through 00Z as the
shortwave moves into the area. These storms should be fairly weak
and likely only produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds, with small
hail possible. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with heavier rain.
Otherwise, the main impact to the area will be strong westerly winds
driven by the shortwave. Winds are already fairly strong at KCTB,
and these winds will increase from west to east across the area. The
strongest winds are expected to be along the Rocky Mountain Front
and along the Hi-Line where gusts will likely exceed 40 kt at times.
From the KLWT area into southwest Montana, winds will not be quite
as strong. As the shortwave exits the area after 00Z, winds will
gradually decrease, but they will remain breezy over the plains of
north central Montana.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 348 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  71  50  72  47 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov












000
FXUS65 KTFX 241620
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper low continues to track east across
southern Canada. Low level moisture and shear values of 50 kts or
greater along the Hi-Line have resulted in isolated thunderstorms
this morning. Have increased POPs for this area for the remainder of
the morning. West winds have begun to increase where the high wind
warning is currently out. Temperatures look OK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
VFR conditions are expected. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms southeast of a line from KBZN to MGM should end by
mid-morning. A weather disturbance will move east through the area
today. Models differ on their precipitation forecasts with this
disturbance. Some have precipitation as far west as a line through
KHLN-KGTF while others are dry. Decided to restrict any mention of
precipitation to KLWT. The main message today will be gusty winds.
Expect local wind gusts to more than 50 knots over the northern
Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as far east as Toole County.
Expect clear skies overnight with winds diminishing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 348 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  71  50  72  47 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 241620
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper low continues to track east across
southern Canada. Low level moisture and shear values of 50 kts or
greater along the Hi-Line have resulted in isolated thunderstorms
this morning. Have increased POPs for this area for the remainder of
the morning. West winds have begun to increase where the high wind
warning is currently out. Temperatures look OK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
VFR conditions are expected. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms southeast of a line from KBZN to MGM should end by
mid-morning. A weather disturbance will move east through the area
today. Models differ on their precipitation forecasts with this
disturbance. Some have precipitation as far west as a line through
KHLN-KGTF while others are dry. Decided to restrict any mention of
precipitation to KLWT. The main message today will be gusty winds.
Expect local wind gusts to more than 50 knots over the northern
Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as far east as Toole County.
Expect clear skies overnight with winds diminishing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 348 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  71  50  72  47 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 241130
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal. &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
VFR conditions are expected. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms southeast of a line from KBZN to KMQM should end by
mid-morning. A weather disturbance will move east through the area
today. Models differ on their precipitation forecasts with this
disturbance. Some have precipitation as far west as a line through
KHLN-KGTF while others are dry. Decided to restrict any mention of
precipitation to KLWT. The main message today will be gusty winds.
Expect local wind gusts to more than 50 knots over the northern
Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as far east as Toole County.
Expect clear skies overnight with winds diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  69  50  72  47 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 241130
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal. &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
VFR conditions are expected. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms southeast of a line from KBZN to KMQM should end by
mid-morning. A weather disturbance will move east through the area
today. Models differ on their precipitation forecasts with this
disturbance. Some have precipitation as far west as a line through
KHLN-KGTF while others are dry. Decided to restrict any mention of
precipitation to KLWT. The main message today will be gusty winds.
Expect local wind gusts to more than 50 knots over the northern
Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as far east as Toole County.
Expect clear skies overnight with winds diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  69  50  72  47 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 240948
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
348 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal. &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected. Strong thunderstorms will
move out of north central Montana shortly after midnight but until
then expect MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Otherwise expect
isolated showers or possibly thunderstorms the rest of tonight.
For Thursday expect isolated showers or thunderstorms in the far
east with scattered showers or thunderstorms over the mountains of
the Rocky Mountain Front. A cold front will sweep through the area
from west to east late tonight and Thursday morning and will bring
gusty westerly winds. Local wind gusts in excess of 50 knots will
be likely over the northern Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as
far east as Toole County.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  69  50  72  47 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 240948
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
348 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal. &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected. Strong thunderstorms will
move out of north central Montana shortly after midnight but until
then expect MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Otherwise expect
isolated showers or possibly thunderstorms the rest of tonight.
For Thursday expect isolated showers or thunderstorms in the far
east with scattered showers or thunderstorms over the mountains of
the Rocky Mountain Front. A cold front will sweep through the area
from west to east late tonight and Thursday morning and will bring
gusty westerly winds. Local wind gusts in excess of 50 knots will
be likely over the northern Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as
far east as Toole County.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  69  50  72  47 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 240741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
141 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...
The severe thunderstorm watch is no longer in effect as strong
storms have moved east of the forecast area. Also lowered the
chances of precipitation and sky cover for the rest of tonight. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected. Strong thunderstorms will
move out of north central Montana shortly after midnight but until
then expect MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Otherwise expect
isolated showers or possibly thunderstorms the rest of tonight.
For Thursday expect isolated showers or thunderstorms in the far
east with scattered showers or thunderstorms over the mountains of
the Rocky Mountain Front. A cold front will sweep through the area
from west to east late tonight and Thursday morning and will bring
gusty westerly winds. Local wind gusts in excess of 50 knots will
be likely over the northern Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as
far east as Toole County.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1207 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014/
FXUS65 KTFX 240607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1207 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
Have dropped the severe thunderstorm watch except for north
central Montana. Also went with a more agressive lowering of the
chances of precipitation for late tonight. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014/
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the POP and
Weather grids. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 3 AM for a
portion of North Central Montana. Radar indicates greatest
concentration of storms near Great Falls at this time. Storm
development over southwest Montana looks to be decreasing.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  76  49  80 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  72  47  77 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  80  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  43  80  43  82 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  72  33  76 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  43  77  45  81 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  52  77  51  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  77  48  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Noon MDT today through this evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM this morning to Midnight MDT tonight
Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 240741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
141 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...
The severe thunderstorm watch is no longer in effect as strong
storms have moved east of the forecast area. Also lowered the
chances of precipitation and sky cover for the rest of tonight. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected. Strong thunderstorms will
move out of north central Montana shortly after midnight but until
then expect MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Otherwise expect
isolated showers or possibly thunderstorms the rest of tonight.
For Thursday expect isolated showers or thunderstorms in the far
east with scattered showers or thunderstorms over the mountains of
the Rocky Mountain Front. A cold front will sweep through the area
from west to east late tonight and Thursday morning and will bring
gusty westerly winds. Local wind gusts in excess of 50 knots will
be likely over the northern Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as
far east as Toole County.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1207 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014/
FXUS65 KTFX 240607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1207 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
Have dropped the severe thunderstorm watch except for north
central Montana. Also went with a more agressive lowering of the
chances of precipitation for late tonight. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014/
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the POP and
Weather grids. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 3 AM for a
portion of North Central Montana. Radar indicates greatest
concentration of storms near Great Falls at this time. Storm
development over southwest Montana looks to be decreasing.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  76  49  80 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  50  72  47  77 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  80  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  43  80  43  82 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  33  72  33  76 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  43  77  45  81 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  52  77  51  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  77  48  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Noon MDT today through this evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM this morning to Midnight MDT tonight
Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 240607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1207 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Have dropped the severe thunderstorm watch except for north
central Montana. Also went with a more agressive lowering of the
chances of precipitation for late tonight. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected. Strong thunderstorms will
move out of north central Montana shortly after midnight but until
then expect MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Otherwise expect
isolated showers or possibly thunderstorms the rest of tonight.
For Thursday expect isolated showers or thunderstorms in the far
east with scattered showers or thunderstorms over the mountains of
the Rocky Mountain Front. A cold front will sweep through the area
from west to east late tonight and Thursday morning and will bring
gusty westerly winds. Local wind gusts in excess of 50 knots will
be likely over the northern Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as
far east as Toole County.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014/
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the POP and
Weather grids. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 3 AM for a
portion of North Central Montana. Radar indicates greatest
concentration of storms near Great Falls at this time. Storm
development over southwest Montana looks to be decreasing.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  40  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  30  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  10  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  10  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 3 AM MDT Thursday Blaine...
Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT Thursday Night Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 240315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the POP and
Weather grids. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 3 AM for a
portion of North Central Montana. Radar indicates greatest
concentration of storms near Great Falls at this time. Storm
development over southwest Montana looks to be decreasing.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
The air mass over Central Montana is unstable but convection has
been slow to initiate. Unsettled, southwest flow aloft ahead will
aid the development of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Best chance for development will be over the Rockies this
afternoon and evening, and over the Hiline later this evening.
Conditions are good for thunderstorms that do develop to become
severe with large hail and strong, erratic gusts. Most convective
activity will diminish after midnight. MVFR conditions are possible
near showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. Strong west winds will develop
Thursday across the Rockies and adjacent plains. A high wind warning
has been issued for the Northern Rockies and portions of the
adjacent plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  70  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  80  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  20  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  30  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 240315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made minor adjustments to the POP and
Weather grids. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 3 AM for a
portion of North Central Montana. Radar indicates greatest
concentration of storms near Great Falls at this time. Storm
development over southwest Montana looks to be decreasing.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
The air mass over Central Montana is unstable but convection has
been slow to initiate. Unsettled, southwest flow aloft ahead will
aid the development of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Best chance for development will be over the Rockies this
afternoon and evening, and over the Hiline later this evening.
Conditions are good for thunderstorms that do develop to become
severe with large hail and strong, erratic gusts. Most convective
activity will diminish after midnight. MVFR conditions are possible
near showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. Strong west winds will develop
Thursday across the Rockies and adjacent plains. A high wind warning
has been issued for the Northern Rockies and portions of the
adjacent plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  70  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  80  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  20  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  30  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 232339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
The air mass over Central Montana is unstable but convection has
been slow to initiate. Unsettled, southwest flow aloft ahead will
aid the development of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Best chance for development will be over the Rockies this
afternoon and evening, and over the Hiline later this evening.
Conditions are good for thunderstorms that do develop to become
severe with large hail and strong, erratic gusts. Most convective
activity will diminish after midnight. MVFR conditions are possible
near showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. Strong west winds will develop
Thursday across the Rockies and adjacent plains. A high wind warning
has been issued for the Northern Rockies and portions of the
adjacent plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  70  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  80  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  20  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  30  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 232339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.
The air mass over Central Montana is unstable but convection has
been slow to initiate. Unsettled, southwest flow aloft ahead will
aid the development of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Best chance for development will be over the Rockies this
afternoon and evening, and over the Hiline later this evening.
Conditions are good for thunderstorms that do develop to become
severe with large hail and strong, erratic gusts. Most convective
activity will diminish after midnight. MVFR conditions are possible
near showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. Strong west winds will develop
Thursday across the Rockies and adjacent plains. A high wind warning
has been issued for the Northern Rockies and portions of the
adjacent plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  70  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  80  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  20  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  30  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 232103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected through the next 24 hours, unless
otherwise noted. Weak thunderstorms in Hill County to move northeast
into Canada over the next hour or so. Otherwise, under an unstable
southwesterly flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the higher terrain of western Montana after 20Z and
spread out onto the plains of north central Montana after 22Z. Some
of these storms may become strong or even severe (mainly north of a
KBTM-KBZN line) with hail over 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph possible. Brief heavy rain is also likely with many
of these storms, which may cause conditions to briefly lower to
MVFR/IFR. After 06Z, the upper low pressure area responsible for the
flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest, forcing
thunderstorm activity to the east. However, precipitation will
likely move into northwest Montana and obscure mountain tops. A
Pacific cold front ahead of the upper low will also move east across
the area between 03Z and 12Z, shifting winds more westerly and
increasing them significantly. Gusts will mostly be 20 kt or more at
that time, but gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front will likely
exceed 40 kt.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  70  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  80  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  20  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  30  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 232103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Quiet weather right now
across the region, but conditions still looking favorable for
strong-to-severe storms later this aftn/eve, mainly over the central
and Hiline counties.  Weather balloon launched at 1:30pm from Great
Falls indicated just a small piece of stable air (or "cap")
remaining from the stable airmass brought on by the rainfall this
morning.  The cap should erode over the next hour or so as surface
temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.  Once the cap breaks, high
amounts of instability (CAPE values over 1000 J/kg) should allow for
quick initial storm development, with the updrafts straightened by
good vertical wind shear already in place.  Further support should
come from the strong jet stream (80-100 mph) current oriented
southwest-to-northeast from the central Idaho into the center of
Montana.  Primary threats from these storms continues to be large
hail and damaging winds.  Still think storms will initially fire
over parts of southwest MT (Helena area and south), then track
northeastward into central MT this evening and up to the Hiline
during mid-late evening.  A few strong storms may occur north of US
Highway 2 after midnight, but most of serious convective activity
should dissipate by 10pm or so.

The weather system driving the activity is a large low pressure
system currently just off the WA/OR coast.  Forecast models still in
good agreement that the system`s central low pressure area will lift
northeast toward southern British Columbia tonight then track east
just north of the US/Can border on Thursday.  Forecast pressure
gradients remain strong both aloft and with the surface cold front
that should move across the region tomorrow morning, so widespread
gusty winds are still likely over the northern half of the forecast
area.  As such, the high wind warning for areas from Toole County
west to the Northern Rocky Mtn Front remains in effect starting late
tonight.  As the system heads into Saskatchewan on Fri, the
gradients should lessen, along with the winds. High pressure then
steadily builds into the region from the west, bringing dry
conditions and temperatures slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s)
for Friday.
Waranauskas


Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected through the next 24 hours, unless
otherwise noted. Weak thunderstorms in Hill County to move northeast
into Canada over the next hour or so. Otherwise, under an unstable
southwesterly flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the higher terrain of western Montana after 20Z and
spread out onto the plains of north central Montana after 22Z. Some
of these storms may become strong or even severe (mainly north of a
KBTM-KBZN line) with hail over 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph possible. Brief heavy rain is also likely with many
of these storms, which may cause conditions to briefly lower to
MVFR/IFR. After 06Z, the upper low pressure area responsible for the
flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest, forcing
thunderstorm activity to the east. However, precipitation will
likely move into northwest Montana and obscure mountain tops. A
Pacific cold front ahead of the upper low will also move east across
the area between 03Z and 12Z, shifting winds more westerly and
increasing them significantly. Gusts will mostly be 20 kt or more at
that time, but gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front will likely
exceed 40 kt.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115 (Chouteau/Fergus counties)
and the southern third of Blaine County remains in effect with no
changes at this time. Gusty winds, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph, are likely on Thurs with afternoon humidities
dropping down to 20 to 25 percent range. There is also concern
that lightning starts from thunderstorms this evening may hold
over and then spread as the strong winds develop tomorrow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  75  52  76 /  70  10  10  10
CTB  55  69  50  72 /  80  10  10  10
HLN  59  78  53  80 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  54  81  43  80 /  20  10  10   0
WEY  44  74  33  72 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  53  76  43  77 /  30  10  10   0
HVR  60  80  52  77 /  70  20  10  10
LWT  58  81  49  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that moved through
central MT this morning are now over the Hiline counties and pushing
quickly to the northeast.  This activity should be out of forecast
area in the next 60-90 min.  Now we wait while the atmosphere resets
itself for the strong-to-severe thunderstorms for this aftn.  Going
forecast is in good shape, with main storm activity projected to
occur along/north of a Butte-to-Lewistown line.  As a result of some
model solutions showing marked increase in low-level rotation with
some of the storms, we have added mention that an isolated tornado
is possible as the storms evolve, but likelihood and confidence that
a tornado may occur is low. The primary threats for all storms today
remain large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the major
source for weather impact our region. A shortwave trough ahead of
the low is currently moving across Idaho and will bring showers and
thunderstorms to our area starting this morning. Another round of
thunderstorms should be able to develop this afternoon as a second
shortwave moves into the region. Model solutions for the pre-storm
environment are not as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is
currently one of the drier solutions...with only limited convective
potential for storms. However most other solutions including the NAM
and ECMWF show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to
occur from the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours.
Storm shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available should
allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing some very
large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected through the next 24 hours, unless
otherwise noted. Weak thunderstorms in Hill County to move northeast
into Canada over the next hour or so. Otherwise, under an unstable
southwesterly flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the higher terrain of western Montana after 20Z and
spread out onto the plains of north central Montana after 22Z. Some
of these storms may become strong or even severe (mainly north of a
KBTM-KBZN line) with hail over 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph possible. Brief heavy rain is also likely with many
of these storms, which may cause conditions to briefly lower to
MVFR/IFR. After 06Z, the upper low pressure area responsible for the
flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest, forcing
thunderstorm activity to the east. However, precipitation will
likely move into northwest Montana and obscure mountain tops. A
Pacific cold front ahead of the upper low will also move east across
the area between 03Z and 12Z, shifting winds more westerly and
increasing them significantly. Gusts will mostly be 20 kt or more at
that time, but gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front will likely
exceed 40 kt.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov












000
FXUS65 KTFX 231800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that moved through
central MT this morning are now over the Hiline counties and pushing
quickly to the northeast.  This activity should be out of forecast
area in the next 60-90 min.  Now we wait while the atmosphere resets
itself for the strong-to-severe thunderstorms for this aftn.  Going
forecast is in good shape, with main storm activity projected to
occur along/north of a Butte-to-Lewistown line.  As a result of some
model solutions showing marked increase in low-level rotation with
some of the storms, we have added mention that an isolated tornado
is possible as the storms evolve, but likelihood and confidence that
a tornado may occur is low. The primary threats for all storms today
remain large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the major
source for weather impact our region. A shortwave trough ahead of
the low is currently moving across Idaho and will bring showers and
thunderstorms to our area starting this morning. Another round of
thunderstorms should be able to develop this afternoon as a second
shortwave moves into the region. Model solutions for the pre-storm
environment are not as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is
currently one of the drier solutions...with only limited convective
potential for storms. However most other solutions including the NAM
and ECMWF show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to
occur from the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours.
Storm shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available should
allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing some very
large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected through the next 24 hours, unless
otherwise noted. Weak thunderstorms in Hill County to move northeast
into Canada over the next hour or so. Otherwise, under an unstable
southwesterly flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the higher terrain of western Montana after 20Z and
spread out onto the plains of north central Montana after 22Z. Some
of these storms may become strong or even severe (mainly north of a
KBTM-KBZN line) with hail over 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph possible. Brief heavy rain is also likely with many
of these storms, which may cause conditions to briefly lower to
MVFR/IFR. After 06Z, the upper low pressure area responsible for the
flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest, forcing
thunderstorm activity to the east. However, precipitation will
likely move into northwest Montana and obscure mountain tops. A
Pacific cold front ahead of the upper low will also move east across
the area between 03Z and 12Z, shifting winds more westerly and
increasing them significantly. Gusts will mostly be 20 kt or more at
that time, but gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front will likely
exceed 40 kt.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov













000
FXUS65 KTFX 231647
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that moved through
central MT this morning are now over the Hiline counties and pushing
quickly to the northeast.  This activity should be out of forecast
area in the next 60-90 min.  Now we wait while the atmosphere resets
itself for the strong-to-severe thunderstorms for this aftn.  Going
forecast is in good shape, with main storm activity projected to
occur along/north of a Butte-to-Lewistown line.  As a result of some
model solutions showing marked increase in low-level rotation with
some of the storms, we have added mention that an isolated tornado
is possible as the storms evolve, but likelihood and confidence that
a tornado may occur is low. The primary threats for all storms today
remain large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the major
source for weather impact our region. A shortwave trough ahead of
the low is currently moving across Idaho and will bring showers and
thunderstorms to our area starting this morning. Another round of
thunderstorms should be able to develop this afternoon as a second
shortwave moves into the region. Model solutions for the pre-storm
environment are not as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is
currently one of the drier solutions...with only limited convective
potential for storms. However most other solutions including the NAM
and ECMWF show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to
occur from the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours.
Storm shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available should
allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing some very
large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
One weather disturbance will move northeast through the area this
morning bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More
showers and thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon over
the northern portions of southwest Montana and also central Montana.
The showers and thunderstorms will then spread into northcentral
Montana by early evening. A few of the thunderstorms will be severe
with hail near or above 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds near 60
mph and IFR conditions in heavy rain. Overnight skies will clear
from the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 231647
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that moved through
central MT this morning are now over the Hiline counties and pushing
quickly to the northeast.  This activity should be out of forecast
area in the next 60-90 min.  Now we wait while the atmosphere resets
itself for the strong-to-severe thunderstorms for this aftn.  Going
forecast is in good shape, with main storm activity projected to
occur along/north of a Butte-to-Lewistown line.  As a result of some
model solutions showing marked increase in low-level rotation with
some of the storms, we have added mention that an isolated tornado
is possible as the storms evolve, but likelihood and confidence that
a tornado may occur is low. The primary threats for all storms today
remain large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the major
source for weather impact our region. A shortwave trough ahead of
the low is currently moving across Idaho and will bring showers and
thunderstorms to our area starting this morning. Another round of
thunderstorms should be able to develop this afternoon as a second
shortwave moves into the region. Model solutions for the pre-storm
environment are not as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is
currently one of the drier solutions...with only limited convective
potential for storms. However most other solutions including the NAM
and ECMWF show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to
occur from the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours.
Storm shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available should
allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing some very
large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
One weather disturbance will move northeast through the area this
morning bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More
showers and thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon over
the northern portions of southwest Montana and also central Montana.
The showers and thunderstorms will then spread into northcentral
Montana by early evening. A few of the thunderstorms will be severe
with hail near or above 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds near 60
mph and IFR conditions in heavy rain. Overnight skies will clear
from the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 231139
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the
major source for weather impact our region.
A shortwave trough ahead of the low is currently moving across
Idaho and will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area
starting this morning. Another round of thunderstorms should be
able to develop this afternoon as a second shortwave moves into
the region. Model solutions for the pre-sto rm environment are not
as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is currently one of the
drier solutions...with only limited convective potential for
storms. However most other solutions including the NAM and ECMWF
show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to occur from
the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours. Storm
shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available
should allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing
some very large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail
growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
One weather disturbance will move northeast through the area this
morning bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More
showers and thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon over
the northern portions of southwest Montana and also central Montana.
The showers and thunderstorms will then spread into northcentral
Montana by early evening. A few of the thunderstorms will be severe
with hail near or above 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds near 60
mph and IFR conditions in heavy rain. Overnight skies will clear
from the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 231139
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the
major source for weather impact our region.
A shortwave trough ahead of the low is currently moving across
Idaho and will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area
starting this morning. Another round of thunderstorms should be
able to develop this afternoon as a second shortwave moves into
the region. Model solutions for the pre-sto rm environment are not
as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is currently one of the
drier solutions...with only limited convective potential for
storms. However most other solutions including the NAM and ECMWF
show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to occur from
the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours. Storm
shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available
should allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing
some very large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail
growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
One weather disturbance will move northeast through the area this
morning bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More
showers and thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon over
the northern portions of southwest Montana and also central Montana.
The showers and thunderstorms will then spread into northcentral
Montana by early evening. A few of the thunderstorms will be severe
with hail near or above 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds near 60
mph and IFR conditions in heavy rain. Overnight skies will clear
from the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 231017
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the
major source for weather impact our region.
A shortwave trough ahead of the low is currently moving across
Idaho and will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area
starting this morning. Another round of thunderstorms should be
able to develop this afternoon as a second shortwave moves into
the region. Model solutions for the pre-sto rm environment are not
as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is currently one of the
drier solutions...with only limited convective potential for
storms. However most other solutions including the NAM and ECMWF
show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to occur from
the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours. Storm
shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available
should allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing
some very large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail
growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A pair of upper level disturbances moving through the area will
cause scattered thunderstorms this evening followed by scattered
showers towards morning. The air mass will become quite unstable
Wednesday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms again developing.
Some thunderstorms may be severe. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be over the Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
moving northeast across the Hiline towards midnight. Local MVFR
conditions are expected near thunderstorms along with erratic and
gusty winds. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231017
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the
major source for weather impact our region.
A shortwave trough ahead of the low is currently moving across
Idaho and will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area
starting this morning. Another round of thunderstorms should be
able to develop this afternoon as a second shortwave moves into
the region. Model solutions for the pre-sto rm environment are not
as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is currently one of the
drier solutions...with only limited convective potential for
storms. However most other solutions including the NAM and ECMWF
show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to occur from
the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours. Storm
shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available
should allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing
some very large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail
growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A pair of upper level disturbances moving through the area will
cause scattered thunderstorms this evening followed by scattered
showers towards morning. The air mass will become quite unstable
Wednesday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms again developing.
Some thunderstorms may be severe. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be over the Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
moving northeast across the Hiline towards midnight. Local MVFR
conditions are expected near thunderstorms along with erratic and
gusty winds. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230309
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
909 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Thunderstorms continue across central Montana this evening,
however coverage has decreased in the last few hours. The
strongest storms as of 9pm were near Dupuyer, Valier, Brady and
Helena. The chance for thunderstorms will continue overnight,
though the threat for severe thunderstorms is diminishing. Heavy
rain, small hail and lightning will be the primary threats.
Increased cloud cover for tonight based on current precipitation
trends. The remainder of the forecast is on track so made no
further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A pair of upper level disturbances moving through the area will
cause scattered thunderstorms this evening followed by scattered
showers towards morning. The air mass will become quite unstable
Wednesday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms again developing.
Some thunderstorms may be severe. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be over the Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
moving northeast across the Hiline towards midnight. Local MVFR
conditions are expected near thunderstorms along with erratic and
gusty winds. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 532 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014/
This Afternoon through Thursday Evening...Atmospheric conditions
continue to take shape for an array of weather activity over central
and southwest MT through the midweek period.  Much of that activity
will center around the passage of the strong low pressure trof
currently located off the BC coast.  Broad southwest flow ahead of
the trof has been pushing plumes of moisture through our region
generating one band of showers that is presently over the Hiline
counties and initiating new thunderstorms over southwest MT.  The
southwestern storms should increase in coverage and spread to the
northeast this evening, then dissipate toward sunset.  The threat of
severe storms is the primary weather feature for Wed, as forecast
models maintained good continuity and agreement on the development
of strong instability, wind shear, and jet stream support necessary
to fuel strong-to-severe storms generally along and north of a
Butte-to-Lewistown line. However, there is one wild card in the
forecast: the evolution of the moisture field ahead of the trof.
Models are still showing run-to-run changes in the placement and
extent of the main moisture plume, but overall latest dew point
analysis shows favorable moisture should be broad enough to generate
a wide area of storms. Large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds
will be the main threats from these storms, which should begin early
Wed aftn around Butte/Helena and expand north and east into Wed
evening.

The main portion of the upper-level trof lifts into southern BC/
Alberta by Wed night and then tracks due east just north of the
US/Can border on Thurs and Fri.  The strong pressure gradient from
the upper low and the accompanying surface cold front crossing east
of the Continental Divide on Thurs morning will make for very windy
conditions through central MT on Thurs.  The high wind watch for the
Northern Rocky Mtn Front and eastern Glacier/Toole counties remains
in effect beginning late Wed night.  The same gusty winds will also
combine with a drier airmass behind the cold front to raise the fire
weather threat for Chouteau/Fergus/southern Blaine counties, so a
fire weather watch is in effect there for Thurs aftn/eve (see
additional info in the Fire Weather section below).
Waranauskas

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  89  62  76 /  30  60  60  10
CTB  56  87  55  69 /  30  50  70  10
HLN  60  93  60  79 /  40  60  40  10
BZN  54  91  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
WEY  43  82  44  75 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  54  87  53  77 /  20  40  30  10
HVR  59  94  60  81 /  20  30  60  20
LWT  59  92  59  81 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230309
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
909 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Thunderstorms continue across central Montana this evening,
however coverage has decreased in the last few hours. The
strongest storms as of 9pm were near Dupuyer, Valier, Brady and
Helena. The chance for thunderstorms will continue overnight,
though the threat for severe thunderstorms is diminishing. Heavy
rain, small hail and lightning will be the primary threats.
Increased cloud cover for tonight based on current precipitation
trends. The remainder of the forecast is on track so made no
further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A pair of upper level disturbances moving through the area will
cause scattered thunderstorms this evening followed by scattered
showers towards morning. The air mass will become quite unstable
Wednesday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms again developing.
Some thunderstorms may be severe. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be over the Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
moving northeast across the Hiline towards midnight. Local MVFR
conditions are expected near thunderstorms along with erratic and
gusty winds. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 532 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014/
This Afternoon through Thursday Evening...Atmospheric conditions
continue to take shape for an array of weather activity over central
and southwest MT through the midweek period.  Much of that activity
will center around the passage of the strong low pressure trof
currently located off the BC coast.  Broad southwest flow ahead of
the trof has been pushing plumes of moisture through our region
generating one band of showers that is presently over the Hiline
counties and initiating new thunderstorms over southwest MT.  The
southwestern storms should increase in coverage and spread to the
northeast this evening, then dissipate toward sunset.  The threat of
severe storms is the primary weather feature for Wed, as forecast
models maintained good continuity and agreement on the development
of strong instability, wind shear, and jet stream support necessary
to fuel strong-to-severe storms generally along and north of a
Butte-to-Lewistown line. However, there is one wild card in the
forecast: the evolution of the moisture field ahead of the trof.
Models are still showing run-to-run changes in the placement and
extent of the main moisture plume, but overall latest dew point
analysis shows favorable moisture should be broad enough to generate
a wide area of storms. Large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds
will be the main threats from these storms, which should begin early
Wed aftn around Butte/Helena and expand north and east into Wed
evening.

The main portion of the upper-level trof lifts into southern BC/
Alberta by Wed night and then tracks due east just north of the
US/Can border on Thurs and Fri.  The strong pressure gradient from
the upper low and the accompanying surface cold front crossing east
of the Continental Divide on Thurs morning will make for very windy
conditions through central MT on Thurs.  The high wind watch for the
Northern Rocky Mtn Front and eastern Glacier/Toole counties remains
in effect beginning late Wed night.  The same gusty winds will also
combine with a drier airmass behind the cold front to raise the fire
weather threat for Chouteau/Fergus/southern Blaine counties, so a
fire weather watch is in effect there for Thurs aftn/eve (see
additional info in the Fire Weather section below).
Waranauskas

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  89  62  76 /  30  60  60  10
CTB  56  87  55  69 /  30  50  70  10
HLN  60  93  60  79 /  40  60  40  10
BZN  54  91  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
WEY  43  82  44  75 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  54  87  53  77 /  20  40  30  10
HVR  59  94  60  81 /  20  30  60  20
LWT  59  92  59  81 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 222332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Thursday Evening...Atmospheric conditions
continue to take shape for an array of weather activity over central
and southwest MT through the midweek period.  Much of that activity
will center around the passage of the strong low pressure trof
currently located off the BC coast.  Broad southwest flow ahead of
the trof has been pushing plumes of moisture through our region
generating one band of showers that is presently over the Hiline
counties and initiating new thunderstorms over southwest MT.  The
southwestern storms should increase in coverage and spread to the
northeast this evening, then dissipate toward sunset.  The threat of
severe storms is the primary weather feature for Wed, as forecast
models maintained good continuity and agreement on the development
of strong instability, wind shear, and jet stream support necessary
to fuel strong-to-severe storms generally along and north of a
Butte-to-Lewistown line. However, there is one wild card in the
forecast: the evolution of the moisture field ahead of the trof.
Models are still showing run-to-run changes in the placement and
extent of the main moisture plume, but overall latest dew point
analysis shows favorable moisture should be broad enough to generate
a wide area of storms. Large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds
will be the main threats from these storms, which should begin early
Wed aftn around Butte/Helena and expand north and east into Wed
evening.

The main portion of the upper-level trof lifts into southern BC/
Alberta by Wed night and then tracks due east just north of the
US/Can border on Thurs and Fri.  The strong pressure gradient from
the upper low and the accompanying surface cold front crossing east
of the Continental Divide on Thurs morning will make for very windy
conditions through central MT on Thurs.  The high wind watch for the
Northern Rocky Mtn Front and eastern Glacier/Toole counties remains
in effect beginning late Wed night.  The same gusty winds will also
combine with a drier airmass behind the cold front to raise the fire
weather threat for Chouteau/Fergus/southern Blaine counties, so a
fire weather watch is in effect there for Thurs aftn/eve (see
additional info in the Fire Weather section below).
Waranauskas


Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A pair of upper level disturbances moving through the area will
cause scattered thunderstorms this evening followed by scattered
showers towards morning. The air mass will become quite unstable
Wednesday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms again developing.
Some thunderstorms may be severe. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be over the Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
moving northeast across the Hiline towards midnight. Local MVFR
conditions are expected near thunderstorms along with erratic and
gusty winds. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  89  62  76 /  30  60  60  10
CTB  56  87  55  69 /  30  50  70  10
HLN  60  93  60  79 /  40  60  40  10
BZN  54  91  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
WEY  43  82  44  75 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  54  87  53  77 /  20  40  30  10
HVR  59  94  60  81 /  20  30  60  20
LWT  59  92  59  81 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 222332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Thursday Evening...Atmospheric conditions
continue to take shape for an array of weather activity over central
and southwest MT through the midweek period.  Much of that activity
will center around the passage of the strong low pressure trof
currently located off the BC coast.  Broad southwest flow ahead of
the trof has been pushing plumes of moisture through our region
generating one band of showers that is presently over the Hiline
counties and initiating new thunderstorms over southwest MT.  The
southwestern storms should increase in coverage and spread to the
northeast this evening, then dissipate toward sunset.  The threat of
severe storms is the primary weather feature for Wed, as forecast
models maintained good continuity and agreement on the development
of strong instability, wind shear, and jet stream support necessary
to fuel strong-to-severe storms generally along and north of a
Butte-to-Lewistown line. However, there is one wild card in the
forecast: the evolution of the moisture field ahead of the trof.
Models are still showing run-to-run changes in the placement and
extent of the main moisture plume, but overall latest dew point
analysis shows favorable moisture should be broad enough to generate
a wide area of storms. Large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds
will be the main threats from these storms, which should begin early
Wed aftn around Butte/Helena and expand north and east into Wed
evening.

The main portion of the upper-level trof lifts into southern BC/
Alberta by Wed night and then tracks due east just north of the
US/Can border on Thurs and Fri.  The strong pressure gradient from
the upper low and the accompanying surface cold front crossing east
of the Continental Divide on Thurs morning will make for very windy
conditions through central MT on Thurs.  The high wind watch for the
Northern Rocky Mtn Front and eastern Glacier/Toole counties remains
in effect beginning late Wed night.  The same gusty winds will also
combine with a drier airmass behind the cold front to raise the fire
weather threat for Chouteau/Fergus/southern Blaine counties, so a
fire weather watch is in effect there for Thurs aftn/eve (see
additional info in the Fire Weather section below).
Waranauskas


Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A pair of upper level disturbances moving through the area will
cause scattered thunderstorms this evening followed by scattered
showers towards morning. The air mass will become quite unstable
Wednesday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms again developing.
Some thunderstorms may be severe. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be over the Rockies late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
moving northeast across the Hiline towards midnight. Local MVFR
conditions are expected near thunderstorms along with erratic and
gusty winds. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  89  62  76 /  30  60  60  10
CTB  56  87  55  69 /  30  50  70  10
HLN  60  93  60  79 /  40  60  40  10
BZN  54  91  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
WEY  43  82  44  75 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  54  87  53  77 /  20  40  30  10
HVR  59  94  60  81 /  20  30  60  20
LWT  59  92  59  81 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 222057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Thursday Evening...Atmospheric conditions
continue to take shape for an array of weather activity over central
and southwest MT through the midweek period.  Much of that activity
will center around the passage of the strong low pressure trof
currently located off the BC coast.  Broad southwest flow ahead of
the trof has been pushing plumes of moisture through our region
generating one band of showers that is presently over the Hiline
counties and initiating new thunderstorms over southwest MT.  The
southwestern storms should increase in coverage and spread to the
northeast this evening, then dissipate toward sunset.  The threat of
severe storms is the primary weather feature for Wed, as forecast
models maintained good continuity and agreement on the development
of strong instability, wind shear, and jet stream support necessary
to fuel strong-to-severe storms generally along and north of a
Butte-to-Lewistown line. However, there is one wild card in the
forecast: the evolution of the moisture field ahead of the trof.
Models are still showing run-to-run changes in the placement and
extent of the main moisture plume, but overall latest dew point
analysis shows favorable moisture should be broad enough to generate
a wide area of storms. Large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds
will be the main threats from these storms, which should begin early
Wed aftn around Butte/Helena and expand north and east into Wed
evening.

The main portion of the upper-level trof lifts into southern BC/
Alberta by Wed night and then tracks due east just north of the
US/Can border on Thurs and Fri.  The strong pressure gradient from
the upper low and the accompanying surface cold front crossing east
of the Continental Divide on Thurs morning will make for very windy
conditions through central MT on Thurs.  The high wind watch for the
Northern Rocky Mtn Front and eastern Glacier/Toole counties remains
in effect beginning late Wed night.  The same gusty winds will also
combine with a drier airmass behind the cold front to raise the fire
weather threat for Chouteau/Fergus/southern Blaine counties, so a
fire weather watch is in effect there for Thurs aftn/eve (see
additional info in the Fire Weather section below).
Waranauskas


Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1802Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect north central Montana early in the period with
impacting mainly KLWT. High confidence in development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms 21Z-03Z...however difficult to narrow
timing of any showers or thunderstorms at a particular location.
Wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in heavier rain will
be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers
with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should affect KHLN late
tonight but also could possibly get near KBZN, KGTF and KLWT.
Conditions improve overnight and through early Wednesday morning,
with more thunderstorms anticipated beyond forecast period Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  89  62  76 /  30  60  60  10
CTB  56  87  55  69 /  30  50  70  10
HLN  60  93  60  79 /  40  60  40  10
BZN  54  91  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
WEY  43  82  44  75 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  54  87  53  77 /  20  40  30  10
HVR  59  94  60  81 /  20  30  60  20
LWT  59  92  59  81 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 222057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Thursday Evening...Atmospheric conditions
continue to take shape for an array of weather activity over central
and southwest MT through the midweek period.  Much of that activity
will center around the passage of the strong low pressure trof
currently located off the BC coast.  Broad southwest flow ahead of
the trof has been pushing plumes of moisture through our region
generating one band of showers that is presently over the Hiline
counties and initiating new thunderstorms over southwest MT.  The
southwestern storms should increase in coverage and spread to the
northeast this evening, then dissipate toward sunset.  The threat of
severe storms is the primary weather feature for Wed, as forecast
models maintained good continuity and agreement on the development
of strong instability, wind shear, and jet stream support necessary
to fuel strong-to-severe storms generally along and north of a
Butte-to-Lewistown line. However, there is one wild card in the
forecast: the evolution of the moisture field ahead of the trof.
Models are still showing run-to-run changes in the placement and
extent of the main moisture plume, but overall latest dew point
analysis shows favorable moisture should be broad enough to generate
a wide area of storms. Large hail and strong/damaging outflow winds
will be the main threats from these storms, which should begin early
Wed aftn around Butte/Helena and expand north and east into Wed
evening.

The main portion of the upper-level trof lifts into southern BC/
Alberta by Wed night and then tracks due east just north of the
US/Can border on Thurs and Fri.  The strong pressure gradient from
the upper low and the accompanying surface cold front crossing east
of the Continental Divide on Thurs morning will make for very windy
conditions through central MT on Thurs.  The high wind watch for the
Northern Rocky Mtn Front and eastern Glacier/Toole counties remains
in effect beginning late Wed night.  The same gusty winds will also
combine with a drier airmass behind the cold front to raise the fire
weather threat for Chouteau/Fergus/southern Blaine counties, so a
fire weather watch is in effect there for Thurs aftn/eve (see
additional info in the Fire Weather section below).
Waranauskas


Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1802Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect north central Montana early in the period with
impacting mainly KLWT. High confidence in development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms 21Z-03Z...however difficult to narrow
timing of any showers or thunderstorms at a particular location.
Wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in heavier rain will
be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers
with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should affect KHLN late
tonight but also could possibly get near KBZN, KGTF and KLWT.
Conditions improve overnight and through early Wednesday morning,
with more thunderstorms anticipated beyond forecast period Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  89  62  76 /  30  60  60  10
CTB  56  87  55  69 /  30  50  70  10
HLN  60  93  60  79 /  40  60  40  10
BZN  54  91  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
WEY  43  82  44  75 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  54  87  53  77 /  20  40  30  10
HVR  59  94  60  81 /  20  30  60  20
LWT  59  92  59  81 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1202 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast in good shape; only made a few minor tweaks to
increase precipitation coverage of the showers currently over
northern Judith Basin and northern Fergus counties.  Still expect
the line of showers from Lincoln-to-Monarch-to-Lewistown to move
gradually northward, with scattered showers and few embedded
pulse-type thunderstorms developing over north central counties this
aftn/eve.  Second area of showers/storms will also develop later
over southwest MT as moisture pushes north from Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the
area ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the
area Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms
and showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over
the area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and instability
for Wednesday exists across the high plains of Central
Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front. Dry air near
the surface should allow for strong outflows, possibly damaging, to
develop from these storms. Decent lapse rates should allow for
strong updrafts in storms that organize in the sheared environment.
Hail growth will be limited by the high freezing level, but any
storm strong enough to maintain its height in this environment
should be able to produce a decent amount of small hail and possibly
hailstones larger than an inch in diameter. By Thursday the low
pressure system will move quickly across the area bringing strong
gusty winds to at least the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent high plains. Have issued a high wind watch for this area
beginning Thursday morning and continuing through the day Thursday.
The greatest potential for damaging winds appears to be over by late
Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1802Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect north central Montana early in the period with
impacting mainly KLWT. High confidence in development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms 21Z-03Z...however difficult to narrow
timing of any showers or thunderstorms at a particular location.
Wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in heavier rain will
be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers
with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should affect KHLN late
tonight but also could possibly get near KBZN, KGTF and KLWT.
Conditions improve overnight and through early Wednesday morning,
with more thunderstorms anticipated beyond forecast period Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov












000
FXUS65 KTFX 221617
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast in good shape; only made a few minor tweaks to
increase precipitation coverage of the showers currently over
northern Judith Basin and northern Fergus counties.  Still expect
the line of showers from Lincoln-to-Monarch-to-Lewistown to move
gradually northward, with scattered showers and few embedded
pulse-type thunderstorms developing over north central counties this
aftn/eve.  Second area of showers/storms will also develop later
over southwest MT as moisture pushes north from Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the
area ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the
area Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms
and showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over
the area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and instability
for Wednesday exists across the high plains of Central
Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front. Dry air near
the surface should allow for strong outflows, possibly damaging, to
develop from these storms. Decent lapse rates should allow for
strong updrafts in storms that organize in the sheared environment.
Hail growth will be limited by the high freezing level, but any
storm strong enough to maintain its height in this environment
should be able to produce a decent amount of small hail and possibly
hailstones larger than an inch in diameter. By Thursday the low
pressure system will move quickly across the area bringing strong
gusty winds to at least the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent high plains. Have issued a high wind watch for this area
beginning Thursday morning and continuing through the day Thursday.
The greatest potential for damaging winds appears to be over by late
Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect central Montana this morning impacting mainly
KLWT. The main problem with the taf forecasts was figuring out how
showers and thunderstorms will play out this afternoon and evening
as forecast models have differing scenarios. Confidence that showers
and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to the 21z-03z time frame
is high but confidence in picking out a specific period when showers
and thunderstorms could occur at any particular point is low. Keep
in mind that wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in
heavier rain will be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Showers with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should
affect KHLN late tonight but also could possibly get near KGTF and
KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 221617
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast in good shape; only made a few minor tweaks to
increase precipitation coverage of the showers currently over
northern Judith Basin and northern Fergus counties.  Still expect
the line of showers from Lincoln-to-Monarch-to-Lewistown to move
gradually northward, with scattered showers and few embedded
pulse-type thunderstorms developing over north central counties this
aftn/eve.  Second area of showers/storms will also develop later
over southwest MT as moisture pushes north from Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the
area ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the
area Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms
and showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over
the area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and instability
for Wednesday exists across the high plains of Central
Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front. Dry air near
the surface should allow for strong outflows, possibly damaging, to
develop from these storms. Decent lapse rates should allow for
strong updrafts in storms that organize in the sheared environment.
Hail growth will be limited by the high freezing level, but any
storm strong enough to maintain its height in this environment
should be able to produce a decent amount of small hail and possibly
hailstones larger than an inch in diameter. By Thursday the low
pressure system will move quickly across the area bringing strong
gusty winds to at least the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent high plains. Have issued a high wind watch for this area
beginning Thursday morning and continuing through the day Thursday.
The greatest potential for damaging winds appears to be over by late
Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect central Montana this morning impacting mainly
KLWT. The main problem with the taf forecasts was figuring out how
showers and thunderstorms will play out this afternoon and evening
as forecast models have differing scenarios. Confidence that showers
and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to the 21z-03z time frame
is high but confidence in picking out a specific period when showers
and thunderstorms could occur at any particular point is low. Keep
in mind that wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in
heavier rain will be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Showers with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should
affect KHLN late tonight but also could possibly get near KGTF and
KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities