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000
FXUS65 KTFX 241722
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance and diffluent southwest flow aloft will
overspread the area this afternoon. Widespread showers will push
onto the Continental Divide and over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Moisture and instability will work against downsloping
effects to bring some showers into the plains and valleys this
afternoon. Have adjusted POPS up over the mountains and southwest
valleys today. Also have expanded mention of precipitation across
the plains and increased POPS over the high plains. The rest of
the forecast looks on track for today with temperatures warming to
near seasonal averages. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1721Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Showers
will obscure the mountains at times through Friday as a moist
southwest flow develops over the region. A few showers will move
into the plains and valleys this afternoon but will diminish this
evening with mainly scattered high cloudiness after midnight.
Langlieb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  30  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  40  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  50  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  40  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  50  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  20  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  30  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 241722
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance and diffluent southwest flow aloft will
overspread the area this afternoon. Widespread showers will push
onto the Continental Divide and over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Moisture and instability will work against downsloping
effects to bring some showers into the plains and valleys this
afternoon. Have adjusted POPS up over the mountains and southwest
valleys today. Also have expanded mention of precipitation across
the plains and increased POPS over the high plains. The rest of
the forecast looks on track for today with temperatures warming to
near seasonal averages. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1721Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Showers
will obscure the mountains at times through Friday as a moist
southwest flow develops over the region. A few showers will move
into the plains and valleys this afternoon but will diminish this
evening with mainly scattered high cloudiness after midnight.
Langlieb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  30  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  40  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  50  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  40  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  50  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  20  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  30  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov












000
FXUS65 KTFX 241555
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance and diffluent southwest flow aloft will
overspread the area this afternoon. Widespread showers will push
onto the Continental Divide and over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Moisture and instability will work against downsloping
effects to bring some showers into the plains and valleys this
afternoon. Have adjusted POPS up over the mountains and southwest
valleys today. Also have expanded mention of precipitation across
the plains and increased POPS over the high plains. The rest of
the forecast looks on track for today with temperatures warming to
near seasonal averages. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Weak ridge over the region will move east today as shortwave energy
moves toward the Northern Rockies today. Increasing mid and high
level clouds are expected through the morning hours with isolated to
scattered showers develop over Southwest Montana and southern
portions of Central Montana after 18Z. Showers will diminish after
00Z Friday with skies clearing over North Central Montana. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  30  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  40  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  50  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  40  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  50  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  20  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  30  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 241555
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance and diffluent southwest flow aloft will
overspread the area this afternoon. Widespread showers will push
onto the Continental Divide and over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Moisture and instability will work against downsloping
effects to bring some showers into the plains and valleys this
afternoon. Have adjusted POPS up over the mountains and southwest
valleys today. Also have expanded mention of precipitation across
the plains and increased POPS over the high plains. The rest of
the forecast looks on track for today with temperatures warming to
near seasonal averages. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Weak ridge over the region will move east today as shortwave energy
moves toward the Northern Rockies today. Increasing mid and high
level clouds are expected through the morning hours with isolated to
scattered showers develop over Southwest Montana and southern
portions of Central Montana after 18Z. Showers will diminish after
00Z Friday with skies clearing over North Central Montana. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  30  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  40  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  50  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  40  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  50  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  20  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  30  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 241550
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance and diffluent southwest flow aloft will
overspread the area this afternoon. Widespread showers will push
onto the Continental Divide and over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Moisture and instability will work against downsloping
affects to bring some showers into the plains and valleys this
afternoon. Have adjusted POPS up over the mountains and southwest
valleys today. Also have expanded mention of precipitation across
the plains and increased POPS over the high plains. The rest of
the forecast looks on track for today with temperatures warming to
near seasonal averages. Langlieb


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Weak ridge over the region will move east today as shortwave energy
moves toward the Northern Rockies today. Increasing mid and high
level clouds are expected through the morning hours with isolated to
scattered showers develop over Southwest Montana and southern
portions of Central Montana after 18Z. Showers will diminish after
00Z Friday with skies clearing over North Central Montana. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  30  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  40  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  50  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  40  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  50  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  20  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  30  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 241550
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A weather disturbance and diffluent southwest flow aloft will
overspread the area this afternoon. Widespread showers will push
onto the Continental Divide and over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Moisture and instability will work against downsloping
affects to bring some showers into the plains and valleys this
afternoon. Have adjusted POPS up over the mountains and southwest
valleys today. Also have expanded mention of precipitation across
the plains and increased POPS over the high plains. The rest of
the forecast looks on track for today with temperatures warming to
near seasonal averages. Langlieb


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Weak ridge over the region will move east today as shortwave energy
moves toward the Northern Rockies today. Increasing mid and high
level clouds are expected through the morning hours with isolated to
scattered showers develop over Southwest Montana and southern
portions of Central Montana after 18Z. Showers will diminish after
00Z Friday with skies clearing over North Central Montana. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  30  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  40  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  50  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  40  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  50  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  20  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  30  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 241134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Weak ridge over the region will move east today as shortwave energy
moves toward the Northern Rockies today. Increasing mid and high
level clouds are expected through the morning hours with isolated to
scattered showers develop over Southwest Montana and southern
portions of Central Montana after 18Z. Showers will diminish after
00Z Friday with skies clearing over North Central Montana. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Light/showery precipitation is expected this afternoon with a larger
Pacific storm system bringing another round of widespread moderate
precipitation late Friday through Saturday. Total precipitation
amounts from the Fri/Sat system look similar to the last
precipitation event with most areas expected to receive around
one-quarter inch of liquid equivalent precip, with one-half inch or
better amounts most likely across southern Gallatin/Madison counties
and arcing from the Little Belts north and west into the Glacier
Park area. Snow levels will range from around 5000 feet near Glacier
Park to around 7000 feet over SW MT. This will likely mean that the
bulk of precipitation that occurs over existing mtn snowpack will be
in the form of snow and not immediately contribute to runoff. However
many rivers and creeks originating in the mtns are already running
at high levels and this will be closely monitored through the
weekend. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  20  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  20  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  30  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  30  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  10  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  20  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 241134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Weak ridge over the region will move east today as shortwave energy
moves toward the Northern Rockies today. Increasing mid and high
level clouds are expected through the morning hours with isolated to
scattered showers develop over Southwest Montana and southern
portions of Central Montana after 18Z. Showers will diminish after
00Z Friday with skies clearing over North Central Montana. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Light/showery precipitation is expected this afternoon with a larger
Pacific storm system bringing another round of widespread moderate
precipitation late Friday through Saturday. Total precipitation
amounts from the Fri/Sat system look similar to the last
precipitation event with most areas expected to receive around
one-quarter inch of liquid equivalent precip, with one-half inch or
better amounts most likely across southern Gallatin/Madison counties
and arcing from the Little Belts north and west into the Glacier
Park area. Snow levels will range from around 5000 feet near Glacier
Park to around 7000 feet over SW MT. This will likely mean that the
bulk of precipitation that occurs over existing mtn snowpack will be
in the form of snow and not immediately contribute to runoff. However
many rivers and creeks originating in the mtns are already running
at high levels and this will be closely monitored through the
weekend. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  20  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  20  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  30  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  30  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  10  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  20  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 240951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
light/showery precipitation is expected this afternoon with a larger
Pacific storm system bringing another round of widespread moderate
precipitation late Friday through Saturday. Total precipitation amounts
from the Fri/Sat system look similar to the last precipitation event
with most areas expected to receive around one-quarter inch of liquid
equivalent precip, with one-half inch or better amounts most
likely across southern Gallatin/Madison counties and arcing from
the Little Belts north and west into the Glacier Park area. Snow
levels will range from around 5000 feet near Glacier Park to
around 7000 feet over SW MT. This will likely mean that the bulk
of precipitation that occurs over existing mtn snowpack will be in
the form of snow and not immediately contribute to runoff. However
many rivers and creeks originating in the mtns are already running
at high levels and this will be closely monitored through the weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  20  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  20  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  30  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  30  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  10  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  20  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 240951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...An active westerly flow aloft continues
over the region with water vapor satellite imagery this morning
showing a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW coast with
additional shortwave and upper level jet energy upstream of this
trough over the Eastern Pacific. Trough along the west coast this
morning will weaken as it moves across a weak ridge in place over
the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but will bring increasing
cloud-cover to the region this morning with good chance for
showers this afternoon as the upper level energy and Pacific
moisture move across the area. A drier period is expected tonight
before the previously mentioned upstream trough digs into the
Western US and amplifies Friday and Saturday. Flow aloft turns to
the SW ahead of the trough on Friday with moisture and instability
increasing by Friday afternoon. The first piece of energy rotates
north across across MT late Friday/Friday night with another
lifting north through the area on Saturday. Showers and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms develop over SW MT Friday afternoon
which evolves into an area of widespread precipitation that lifts
north across central and north central MT Friday night. A brief
period of little activity is expected Saturday morning before the
second wave moves through the region later on Saturday, taking a
slightly more eastern trajectory through Central MT. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in good
agreement for the early portion of the forecast period. Southern
portion of an upper level trough over the western USA is expected to
move slowly east-northeast Saturday night through Monday night and
gradually forms a cutoff low over the Great Plains. However, the
northern portion of this trough remains anchored along the British
Columbia coast forming a negative tilt trough that keeps the
Northern Rockies in an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft. This
pattern is expected to keep temperatures generally near seasonable
averages with showers lingering over the forecast area. Have updated
the forecast to increase pops for Saturday night and Sunday then
kept isolated to scattered pops in place through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night models begin to inch the closed low further east and build a
positive tilt ridge into the Northern Rockies. This is similar to
what was shown by the ECMWF for early to mid week last night but
models are now showing more of a dry northeast flow transitioning
into a better likelihood for western Montana to come under the
influence of the ridge axis. Have gone with a somewhat drier
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday with model guidance in
better agreement in a slow warming trend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
light/showery precipitation is expected this afternoon with a larger
Pacific storm system bringing another round of widespread moderate
precipitation late Friday through Saturday. Total precipitation amounts
from the Fri/Sat system look similar to the last precipitation event
with most areas expected to receive around one-quarter inch of liquid
equivalent precip, with one-half inch or better amounts most
likely across southern Gallatin/Madison counties and arcing from
the Little Belts north and west into the Glacier Park area. Snow
levels will range from around 5000 feet near Glacier Park to
around 7000 feet over SW MT. This will likely mean that the bulk
of precipitation that occurs over existing mtn snowpack will be in
the form of snow and not immediately contribute to runoff. However
many rivers and creeks originating in the mtns are already running
at high levels and this will be closely monitored through the weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  35  58  39 /  20  10  50  80
CTB  56  31  56  35 /  20  10  10  80
HLN  58  37  58  39 /  30  20  60  80
BZN  59  35  59  37 /  30  20  50  60
WEY  48  32  49  32 /  50  50  60  60
DLN  55  35  55  37 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  62  34  63  39 /  10  20  10  70
LWT  57  32  56  37 /  20  20  40  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 240415
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
All highlights have been allowed to expire/or were cancelled
today...as quieter weather moves over the region for the next 24
hours or so. Winds are slowly decreasing and with clearing skies
east of the divide...temperatures have been lowered a touch in this
region. Small stream rivers and creeks across Southwest MT have
risen to bankfull...but with no significant melting or warm
temperatures expected through Thursday...the flood highlights have
been dropped for now. Scattered showers this evening are coming to
end over the eastern Plains...but will continue to affect the
western mountains through tonight. Expect showers to move off the
Rockies tomorrow afternoon...as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Precip on Thu should be fairly light...with showers also
being short lived.

Looking ahead...the Nam model progs about 0.50 to 1.00 inches of
liquid precip from Friday night through early Sunday morning over
much of North Central MT. Lighter amounts are expected in
Southwest MT...except Gallatin County...which could receive some
fairly good precip amounts. Snow levels will become rather low by
Saturday morning...and there is the potential for
highlights...either hydro/winter or both for this up coming event.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  59  35  58 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  20  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  30  56  35  57 /  20  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 240415
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
All highlights have been allowed to expire/or were cancelled
today...as quieter weather moves over the region for the next 24
hours or so. Winds are slowly decreasing and with clearing skies
east of the divide...temperatures have been lowered a touch in this
region. Small stream rivers and creeks across Southwest MT have
risen to bankfull...but with no significant melting or warm
temperatures expected through Thursday...the flood highlights have
been dropped for now. Scattered showers this evening are coming to
end over the eastern Plains...but will continue to affect the
western mountains through tonight. Expect showers to move off the
Rockies tomorrow afternoon...as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Precip on Thu should be fairly light...with showers also
being short lived.

Looking ahead...the Nam model progs about 0.50 to 1.00 inches of
liquid precip from Friday night through early Sunday morning over
much of North Central MT. Lighter amounts are expected in
Southwest MT...except Gallatin County...which could receive some
fairly good precip amounts. Snow levels will become rather low by
Saturday morning...and there is the potential for
highlights...either hydro/winter or both for this up coming event.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  59  35  58 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  20  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  30  56  35  57 /  20  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 240331
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
931 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
All highlights have been allowed to expire/or were cancelled
today...as quieter weather moves over the region for the next 24
hours or so. Winds are slowly decreasing and with clearing skies
east of the divide...temperatures have been lowered a touch in this
region. Small stream rivers and creeks across Southwest MT have
risen to bankfull...but with no significant melting or warm
temperatures expected through Thursday...the flood highlights have
been dropped for now. Scattered showers this evening are coming to
end over the eastern Plains...but will continue to affect the
western mountains through tonight. Expect showers to move off the
Rockies tomorrow afternoon...as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Precip on Thu should be fairly light...with showers also
being short lived.

Looking ahead...the Nam model progs about 0.50 to 1.00 inches of
liquid precip from Friday night through early Sunday morning over
much of North Central MT. Lighter amounts are expected in
Southwest MT...except Gallatin County...which could receive some
fairly good precip amounts. Snow levels will become rather low by
Saturday morning...and there is the potential for
highlights...either hydro/winter or both for this up coming event.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2257Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  59  35  58 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  20  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  30  56  35  57 /  20  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 240331
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
931 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
All highlights have been allowed to expire/or were cancelled
today...as quieter weather moves over the region for the next 24
hours or so. Winds are slowly decreasing and with clearing skies
east of the divide...temperatures have been lowered a touch in this
region. Small stream rivers and creeks across Southwest MT have
risen to bankfull...but with no significant melting or warm
temperatures expected through Thursday...the flood highlights have
been dropped for now. Scattered showers this evening are coming to
end over the eastern Plains...but will continue to affect the
western mountains through tonight. Expect showers to move off the
Rockies tomorrow afternoon...as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Precip on Thu should be fairly light...with showers also
being short lived.

Looking ahead...the Nam model progs about 0.50 to 1.00 inches of
liquid precip from Friday night through early Sunday morning over
much of North Central MT. Lighter amounts are expected in
Southwest MT...except Gallatin County...which could receive some
fairly good precip amounts. Snow levels will become rather low by
Saturday morning...and there is the potential for
highlights...either hydro/winter or both for this up coming event.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2257Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  59  35  58 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  20  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  30  56  35  57 /  20  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 232300
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2257Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  59  35  58 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  36  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  30  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  40  40  50  60
DLN  32  56  35  57 /  30  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM
MDT this evening Eastern Glacier... Eastern Pondera...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 232035
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
235 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  59  35  58 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  36  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  30  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  40  40  50  60
DLN  32  56  35  57 /  30  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM
MDT this evening Eastern Glacier... Eastern Pondera...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 232035
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
235 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  59  35  58 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  36  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  30  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  40  40  50  60
DLN  32  56  35  57 /  30  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM
MDT this evening Eastern Glacier... Eastern Pondera...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231748
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231748
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 231600
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231600
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 231138
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation fell
with localized amounts in this range also observed over other
areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data shows the greatest
amount of melting/change in snow water content at mid elevations
in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little Belt Mountains where
0.20" to 0.50" of snowmelt is estimated. Area river/stream gauges
and beginning to show a small response to precipitation and
snowmelt runoff with the East Gallatin river currently at action
stage. Cooler conditions today will limit additional snowmelt, but
rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored as the runoff
from last night works its way down from higher elevation areas.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  58  34 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  51  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  53  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  52  31  59  34 /  30  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  58  32  62  33 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  51  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 231138
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation fell
with localized amounts in this range also observed over other
areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data shows the greatest
amount of melting/change in snow water content at mid elevations
in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little Belt Mountains where
0.20" to 0.50" of snowmelt is estimated. Area river/stream gauges
and beginning to show a small response to precipitation and
snowmelt runoff with the East Gallatin river currently at action
stage. Cooler conditions today will limit additional snowmelt, but
rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored as the runoff
from last night works its way down from higher elevation areas.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  58  34 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  51  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  53  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  52  31  59  34 /  30  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  58  32  62  33 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  51  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 231008
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
408 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation fell
with localized amounts in this range also observed over other
areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data shows the greatest
amount of melting/change in snow water content at mid elevations
in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little Belt Mountains where
0.20" to 0.50" of snowmelt is estimated. Area river/stream gauges
and beginning to show a small response to precipitation and
snowmelt runoff with the East Gallatin river currently at action
stage. Cooler conditions today will limit additional snowmelt, but
rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored as the runoff
from last night works its way down from higher elevation areas.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  58  34 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  51  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  53  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  52  31  59  34 /  30  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  58  32  62  33 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  51  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 230411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 230335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 230335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the Thunderstorm Watch for Southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area...however damaging winds are not anticipated with any
additional storms. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the Thunderstorm Watch for Southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area...however damaging winds are not anticipated with any
additional storms. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 222038
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 222038
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

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www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of Interstate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change to
increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the cold
front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of Interstate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change to
increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the cold
front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1009 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of intestate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change was
to increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the
cold front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1009 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of intestate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change was
to increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the
cold front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221232 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov












000
FXUS65 KTFX 221149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread mountain
snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 221149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread mountain
snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 221053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info below).
Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the trough
moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east into
the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough intensifies over
central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front associated
with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front and main forcing
associated with the trough move across the region tonight with
showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the
forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an windy
conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday with
precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through tonight
still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of the area
with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison County
north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and north to
western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the
potential for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening
to fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff
and flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The
potential for this situation exists across most mountain rages of
central and southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin
River most likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info below).
Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the trough
moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east into
the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough intensifies over
central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front associated
with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front and main forcing
associated with the trough move across the region tonight with
showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the
forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an windy
conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday with
precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through tonight
still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of the area
with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison County
north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and north to
western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the
potential for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening
to fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff
and flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The
potential for this situation exists across most mountain rages of
central and southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin
River most likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 220427
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 220427
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 220310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 220310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 212346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 212346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 212100
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 18Z
Tuesday. Areas of high cloudiness with ceilings of above 15000 feet
AGL will increase over the area through the period. However,
disturbances in the increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft may
bring scattered to broken mid level clouds with ceilings of 8000 to
10000 feet AGL to the area between 00Z and 12Z, along with a few
mountain showers. Breezy southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph will
shift more easterly through 03Z.
Coulston

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212100
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 18Z
Tuesday. Areas of high cloudiness with ceilings of above 15000 feet
AGL will increase over the area through the period. However,
disturbances in the increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft may
bring scattered to broken mid level clouds with ceilings of 8000 to
10000 feet AGL to the area between 00Z and 12Z, along with a few
mountain showers. Breezy southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph will
shift more easterly through 03Z.
Coulston

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





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