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000
FXUS65 KTFX 181154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU NORTH CENTRAL MT
TODAY. EXPECT SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE
PRECIP MOVES THRU THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN LINE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BE A BIT BREEZY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 181154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU NORTH CENTRAL MT
TODAY. EXPECT SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE
PRECIP MOVES THRU THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN LINE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BE A BIT BREEZY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 181154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU NORTH CENTRAL MT
TODAY. EXPECT SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE
PRECIP MOVES THRU THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN LINE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BE A BIT BREEZY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180946
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180946
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180306
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRID TO BETTER REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MIDMORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180306
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRID TO BETTER REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MIDMORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 172108
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 172108
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 171751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 171153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  66  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  65  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  55  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  61  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  68  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  63  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 171153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  66  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  65  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  55  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  61  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  68  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  63  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW- TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN.
WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  66  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  65  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  55  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  61  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  68  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  63  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 162342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 162052
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 162052
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 161736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161522
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
922 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1200Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THRU THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG
SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW.
BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 160933
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
333 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AT KBZN/KLWT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBZN IS
NEARING THE DEWPOINT WITH THIS UPDATE..AND EXPECT FOG TO FORM HERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBZN FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KLWT. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 160933
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
333 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AT KBZN/KLWT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBZN IS
NEARING THE DEWPOINT WITH THIS UPDATE..AND EXPECT FOG TO FORM HERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBZN FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KLWT. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 160456
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW OF YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. MID CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER THE BOZEMAN
AREA BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY
FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE WEATHER
GRID BUT HAVE CHANGED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY AND CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS WANING. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AT KBZN/KLWT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBZN IS
NEARING THE DEWPOINT WITH THIS UPDATE..AND EXPECT FOG TO FORM HERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBZN FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KLWT. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.MEANWHILE A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH
CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 160456
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW OF YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. MID CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER THE BOZEMAN
AREA BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY
FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE WEATHER
GRID BUT HAVE CHANGED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY AND CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS WANING. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AT KBZN/KLWT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBZN IS
NEARING THE DEWPOINT WITH THIS UPDATE..AND EXPECT FOG TO FORM HERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBZN FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KLWT. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.MEANWHILE A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH
CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 160456
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW OF YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. MID CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER THE BOZEMAN
AREA BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY
FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE WEATHER
GRID BUT HAVE CHANGED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY AND CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS WANING. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AT KBZN/KLWT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBZN IS
NEARING THE DEWPOINT WITH THIS UPDATE..AND EXPECT FOG TO FORM HERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBZN FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KLWT. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.MEANWHILE A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH
CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 160321
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW OF YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. MID CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER THE BOZEMAN
AREA BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY
FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE WEATHER
GRID BUT HAVE CHANGED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY AND CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS WANING. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG THURSDAY MORNING AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE VCNTY KBZN...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE 02Z. WITH
PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.MEANWHILE A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH
CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 160321
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW OF YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. MID CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER THE BOZEMAN
AREA BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY
FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE WEATHER
GRID BUT HAVE CHANGED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY AND CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS WANING. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG THURSDAY MORNING AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE VCNTY KBZN...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE 02Z. WITH
PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.MEANWHILE A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH
CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 152334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA
FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL
DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY
COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TFX CWA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH
A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG THURSDAY MORNING AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE VCNTY KBZN...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE 02Z. WITH
PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
NUTTER

&&

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 152334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA
FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL
DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY
COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TFX CWA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH
A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG THURSDAY MORNING AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE VCNTY KBZN...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE 02Z. WITH
PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KBZN/KGTF/KLWT.
NUTTER

&&

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 152000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA
FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL
DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY
COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TFX CWA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH
A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2000Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS. WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KBZN...KHLN...KGTF...AND KLWT AERODROMES. BRITTON

&&

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 152000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA
FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL
DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY
COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TFX CWA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH
A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2000Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS. WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KBZN...KHLN...KGTF...AND KLWT AERODROMES. BRITTON

&&

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 151543
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
943 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...UPPER LOW CONTINES TO DIG TO THE SOUTH AS POSITIVE TILT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONDITIONS DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE SAME PERIOD WITH WIND
SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL MT THRU
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURED. LEWISTOWN WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTED. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN AREAS. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015/
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE TROF IS
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE TROF.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT OVER UTAH/COLORADO WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE 4-CORNERS BY MID-DAY THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN OVER THE ZONES. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NORTH TODAY AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER PAST THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AIRMASS WILL THEN
REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE COOL TODAY BUT RISE ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ZELZER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL
BEING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC MODEL SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT
WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  29  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
CTB  48  30  60  34 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  45  28  57  32 /  40   0   0   0
BZN  40  22  52  27 /  80   0   0   0
WEY  34  20  46  21 /  60  10   0   0
DLN  40  23  53  28 /  50   0   0   0
HVR  52  31  62  36 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  41  27  53  32 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR MTZ012-
014-015-050>055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 151543
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
943 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...UPPER LOW CONTINES TO DIG TO THE SOUTH AS POSITIVE TILT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONDITIONS DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE SAME PERIOD WITH WIND
SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL MT THRU
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURED. LEWISTOWN WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTED. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN AREAS. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015/
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE TROF IS
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE TROF.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT OVER UTAH/COLORADO WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE 4-CORNERS BY MID-DAY THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN OVER THE ZONES. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NORTH TODAY AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER PAST THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AIRMASS WILL THEN
REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE COOL TODAY BUT RISE ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ZELZER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL
BEING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC MODEL SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT
WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  29  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
CTB  48  30  60  34 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  45  28  57  32 /  40   0   0   0
BZN  40  22  52  27 /  80   0   0   0
WEY  34  20  46  21 /  60  10   0   0
DLN  40  23  53  28 /  50   0   0   0
HVR  52  31  62  36 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  41  27  53  32 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR MTZ012-
014-015-050>055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




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