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000
FXUS65 KTFX 302039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 90 AT MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
SATURDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
JUST A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW 15 KTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY LOW TEENS SATURDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT MID SLOPES AND RIDGETOPS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY POOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 5 OR 6 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD OF
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO MODERATE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND THE INCREASE IN
LIGHTNING AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS FOLLOWING
THIS PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  93  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  93  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  57  94  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  53  91  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  38  83  40  84 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  50  89  52  90 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  54  92  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  54  90  56  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW 15 KTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW 15 KTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW 15 KTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW 15 KTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301508
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301508
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301508
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301115
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301115
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301115
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301115
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300912
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300912
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291724
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT TIMES, BUT
THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291724
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT TIMES, BUT
THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290937 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290937 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290528
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290528
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 282015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 282015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281608
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1008 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AND PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280555
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED
OFF ACROSS PORTI0NS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW) OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MODELS ARE MOVING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 4 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. HAVE THEREFORE USED FUTURE MODEL POP/QPF TIMES AND
BLENDED THEM WITH THE GOING FORECAST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT
FASTER. TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE SO
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THESE PARAMETERS. IF THIS SOLUTION
WORKS OUT FAVORABLY AM EXPECTING THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  60  20   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  40  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  50  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  60  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  60  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 /  90  50  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280555
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED
OFF ACROSS PORTI0NS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW) OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MODELS ARE MOVING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 4 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. HAVE THEREFORE USED FUTURE MODEL POP/QPF TIMES AND
BLENDED THEM WITH THE GOING FORECAST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT
FASTER. TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE SO
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THESE PARAMETERS. IF THIS SOLUTION
WORKS OUT FAVORABLY AM EXPECTING THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  60  20   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  40  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  50  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  60  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  60  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 /  90  50  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED
OFF ACROSS PORTI0NS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW) OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MODELS ARE MOVING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 4 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. HAVE THERFORE USED FUTURE MODEL POP/QPF TIMES AND
BLENDED THEM WITH THE GOING FORECAST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT
FASTER. TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE SO
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THESE PARAMETERS. IF THIS SOLUTION
WORKS OUT FAVORABLY AM EXPECTING THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF
TROUGH WILL AFFECT EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AREAS LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z REACHING EASTERN MONTANA AROUND 15Z. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  60  20   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  40  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  50  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  60  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  60  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 /  90  50  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED
OFF ACROSS PORTI0NS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW) OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MODELS ARE MOVING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 4 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. HAVE THERFORE USED FUTURE MODEL POP/QPF TIMES AND
BLENDED THEM WITH THE GOING FORECAST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT
FASTER. TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE SO
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THESE PARAMETERS. IF THIS SOLUTION
WORKS OUT FAVORABLY AM EXPECTING THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF
TROUGH WILL AFFECT EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AREAS LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z REACHING EASTERN MONTANA AROUND 15Z. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  60  20   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  40  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  50  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  60  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  60  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 /  90  50  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED
OFF ACROSS PORTI0NS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW) OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MODELS ARE MOVING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 4 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. HAVE THERFORE USED FUTURE MODEL POP/QPF TIMES AND
BLENDED THEM WITH THE GOING FORECAST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT
FASTER. TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE SO
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THESE PARAMETERS. IF THIS SOLUTION
WORKS OUT FAVORABLY AM EXPECTING THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF
TROUGH WILL AFFECT EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AREAS LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z REACHING EASTERN MONTANA AROUND 15Z. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  60  20   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  40  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  50  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  60  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  60  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 /  90  50  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272331
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF
TROUGH WILL AFFECT EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AREAS LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z REACHING EASTERN MONTANA AROUND 15Z. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  80  30   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  70  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  90  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  80  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  90  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  80  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 / 100  70  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 272331
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
531 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. STEADY
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AMID
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERWHELMING THE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. ANY FLOOD IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INITIATES CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY
QUIET AND DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE HI-LINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. HAVE GONE WITH A GENERALLY DRY SOLUTION MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2331Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF
TROUGH WILL AFFECT EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AREAS LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z REACHING EASTERN MONTANA AROUND 15Z. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING
SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS... HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY
EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL
ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  52  80 /  80  30   0   0
CTB  50  72  50  79 /  70  10   0   0
HLN  46  72  50  82 /  90  20   0   0
BZN  46  71  48  80 /  80  20   0   0
WEY  32  63  32  72 /  90  20   0   0
DLN  39  69  44  78 /  80  10   0   0
HVR  53  73  51  82 / 100  70  10   0
LWT  49  69  49  78 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





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