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000
FXUS65 KTFX 012153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night...A boundary between cold air in the
north and relatively milder air in the south will vacillate
over central Montana over the next couple of days. This will make
temperature forecasts in that area rather tricky. Tuesday
afternoon and night the cold air will finally spread all the way
through southwest Montana. A series of weather disturbances aloft
will move through a northwest flow aloft during the period and
bring periods of snow. A couple of disturbances will bring some
snow to the mountains tonight with isolated to scattered snow for
the lower elevations. For the lower elevations the best chance for
snow will be over northcentral Montana so have increased the
chances of snow there for late tonight and Monday morning. Monday
afternoon there should be a break in the snow but then another
disturbance combined with a surge of cooler air into the north
will bring snow to the north Monday night. Then Tuesday night the
cold surge mentioned above will move through southwest Montana and
combined with an increase in moisture will bring snow to southwest
and possibly central Montana. During the period snow accumulations
should be on the light side so am not thinking of any winter
weather highlights at this point but will continue to monitor for
any changes. As for the threat of freezing rain it does not look
like it will be warm enough to get freezing rain so have mostly
removed its mention from the forecast. Blank

Wednesday through Sunday...Following a cool morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound to near seasonal values as an upper level ridge
traverses the Pacific Northwest. Deep moisture on a strong
west-southwesterly flow will maintain chances for mountain snow,
increasing a bit on Thursday as a warm front lifts through southwest
and central Montana. Temperatures move well above average starting
Thursday and continue mild through the weekend. Model guidance
presents a possible back-door cold front moving into northeast
Montana on Thursday night with a slight chance for snow, but does
not appear to lower temperatures much in our northeast zones. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj/Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755z. Visible satellite reveals high level clouds crossing
the Continental Divide with deep moisture upstream to the west. VFR
conditions will prevail through the day, with mid-level CIGS and
possible mountain obscuration developing by evening. Widespread
rain/snow showers will develop tonight over the central and
southwest Mountains surrounding KBZN/KHLN/KGTF, with best chances
for a period of light snow at KBZN. Light snow will develop late
tonight with a weak warm frontal boundary generally along a line
from east of KCTB to west of KLWT. IFR conditions are most likely at
KHVR/KLWT by morning. Confidence is low regarding CIGs/VIS and
adjustments are likely. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  33  19  28 /  30  20  70  50
CTB  15  22  10  15 /  30  20  80  50
HLN  25  39  28  41 /  40  20  40  30
BZN  24  40  27  43 /  40  20  40  30
WEY  21  29  26  34 /  50  60  80  80
DLN  27  41  30  47 /  30  10  20  20
HVR  10  17  10  16 /  60  40  80  70
LWT  23  32  19  29 /  30  20  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night...A boundary between cold air in the
north and relatively milder air in the south will vacillate
over central Montana over the next couple of days. This will make
temperature forecasts in that area rather tricky. Tuesday
afternoon and night the cold air will finally spread all the way
through southwest Montana. A series of weather disturbances aloft
will move through a northwest flow aloft during the period and
bring periods of snow. A couple of disturbances will bring some
snow to the mountains tonight with isolated to scattered snow for
the lower elevations. For the lower elevations the best chance for
snow will be over northcentral Montana so have increased the
chances of snow there for late tonight and Monday morning. Monday
afternoon there should be a break in the snow but then another
disturbance combined with a surge of cooler air into the north
will bring snow to the north Monday night. Then Tuesday night the
cold surge mentioned above will move through southwest Montana and
combined with an increase in moisture will bring snow to southwest
and possibly central Montana. During the period snow accumulations
should be on the light side so am not thinking of any winter
weather highlights at this point but will continue to monitor for
any changes. As for the threat of freezing rain it does not look
like it will be warm enough to get freezing rain so have mostly
removed its mention from the forecast. Blank

Wednesday through Sunday...Following a cool morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound to near seasonal values as an upper level ridge
traverses the Pacific Northwest. Deep moisture on a strong
west-southwesterly flow will maintain chances for mountain snow,
increasing a bit on Thursday as a warm front lifts through southwest
and central Montana. Temperatures move well above average starting
Thursday and continue mild through the weekend. Model guidance
presents a possible back-door cold front moving into northeast
Montana on Thursday night with a slight chance for snow, but does
not appear to lower temperatures much in our northeast zones. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj/Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755z. Visible satellite reveals high level clouds crossing
the Continental Divide with deep moisture upstream to the west. VFR
conditions will prevail through the day, with mid-level CIGS and
possible mountain obscuration developing by evening. Widespread
rain/snow showers will develop tonight over the central and
southwest Mountains surrounding KBZN/KHLN/KGTF, with best chances
for a period of light snow at KBZN. Light snow will develop late
tonight with a weak warm frontal boundary generally along a line
from east of KCTB to west of KLWT. IFR conditions are most likely at
KHVR/KLWT by morning. Confidence is low regarding CIGs/VIS and
adjustments are likely. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  33  19  28 /  30  20  70  50
CTB  15  22  10  15 /  30  20  80  50
HLN  25  39  28  41 /  40  20  40  30
BZN  24  40  27  43 /  40  20  40  30
WEY  21  29  26  34 /  50  60  80  80
DLN  27  41  30  47 /  30  10  20  20
HVR  10  17  10  16 /  60  40  80  70
LWT  23  32  19  29 /  30  20  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...
Based on latest satellite imagery have lowered sky cover for this
morning in the east and based on latest guidance increased clouds
in the east for this afternoon. For this morning have removed the
mention of a slight chance of snow for Helena and surrounding
areas. Not seeing much in the way of fog on satellite imagery and
web camera images so have removed the mention of patchy fog for
this morning. Forecast highs for today will be tricky along the
east slopes. Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone
but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least
several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not
have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs.
Farther northeast confidence is higher that highs will not reach
inherited values due to such a cold start to the day and with snow
cover from yesterday so lowered values several degrees. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755z. Visible satellite reveals high level clouds crossing
the Continental Divide with deep moisture upstream to the west. VFR
conditions will prevail through the day, with mid-level CIGS and
possible mountain obscuration developing by evening. Widespread
rain/snow showers will develop tonight over the central and
southwest Mountains surrounding KBZN/KHLN/KGTF, with best chances
for a period of light snow at KBZN. Light snow will develop late
tonight with a weak warm frontal boundary generally along a line
from east of KCTB to west of KLWT. IFR conditions are most likely at
KHVR/KLWT by morning. Confidence is low regarding CIGs/VIS and
adjustments are likely. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015/
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  15  15  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 011800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...
Based on latest satellite imagery have lowered sky cover for this
morning in the east and based on latest guidance increased clouds
in the east for this afternoon. For this morning have removed the
mention of a slight chance of snow for Helena and surrounding
areas. Not seeing much in the way of fog on satellite imagery and
web camera images so have removed the mention of patchy fog for
this morning. Forecast highs for today will be tricky along the
east slopes. Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone
but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least
several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not
have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs.
Farther northeast confidence is higher that highs will not reach
inherited values due to such a cold start to the day and with snow
cover from yesterday so lowered values several degrees. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755z. Visible satellite reveals high level clouds crossing
the Continental Divide with deep moisture upstream to the west. VFR
conditions will prevail through the day, with mid-level CIGS and
possible mountain obscuration developing by evening. Widespread
rain/snow showers will develop tonight over the central and
southwest Mountains surrounding KBZN/KHLN/KGTF, with best chances
for a period of light snow at KBZN. Light snow will develop late
tonight with a weak warm frontal boundary generally along a line
from east of KCTB to west of KLWT. IFR conditions are most likely at
KHVR/KLWT by morning. Confidence is low regarding CIGs/VIS and
adjustments are likely. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015/
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  15  15  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 011610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest satellite imagery have lowered sky cover for this
morning in the east and based on latest guidance increased clouds
in the east for this afternoon. For this morning have removed the
mention of a slight chance of snow for Helena and surrounding
areas. Not seeing much in the way of fog on satellite imagery and
web camera images so have removed the mention of patchy fog for
this morning. Forecast highs for today will be tricky along the
east slopes. Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone
but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least
several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not
have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs.
Farther northeast confidence is higher that highs will not reach
inherited values due to such a cold start to the day and with snow
cover from yesterday so lowered values several degrees. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145z.
A few light snow showers are possible in the Helena area this
morning...with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT.
Expect increasing clouds this afternoon...with snow developing over
the Rocky Mountain Front. The snow will spread eastward
overnight...possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys
of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning. Overall VFR conditions this
morning will generally give way to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Mountains will become obscured through the day/evening. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015/
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  15  15  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest satellite imagery have lowered sky cover for this
morning in the east and based on latest guidance increased clouds
in the east for this afternoon. For this morning have removed the
mention of a slight chance of snow for Helena and surrounding
areas. Not seeing much in the way of fog on satellite imagery and
web camera images so have removed the mention of patchy fog for
this morning. Forecast highs for today will be tricky along the
east slopes. Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone
but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least
several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not
have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs.
Farther northeast confidence is higher that highs will not reach
inherited values due to such a cold start to the day and with snow
cover from yesterday so lowered values several degrees. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145z.
A few light snow showers are possible in the Helena area this
morning...with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT.
Expect increasing clouds this afternoon...with snow developing over
the Rocky Mountain Front. The snow will spread eastward
overnight...possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys
of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning. Overall VFR conditions this
morning will generally give way to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Mountains will become obscured through the day/evening. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015/
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  15  15  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest satellite imagery have lowered sky cover for this
morning in the east and based on latest guidance increased clouds
in the east for this afternoon. For this morning have removed the
mention of a slight chance of snow for Helena and surrounding
areas. Not seeing much in the way of fog on satellite imagery and
web camera images so have removed the mention of patchy fog for
this morning. Forecast highs for today will be tricky along the
east slopes. Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone
but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least
several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not
have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs.
Farther northeast confidence is higher that highs will not reach
inherited values due to such a cold start to the day and with snow
cover from yesterday so lowered values several degrees. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145z.
A few light snow showers are possible in the Helena area this
morning...with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT.
Expect increasing clouds this afternoon...with snow developing over
the Rocky Mountain Front. The snow will spread eastward
overnight...possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys
of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning. Overall VFR conditions this
morning will generally give way to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Mountains will become obscured through the day/evening. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015/
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  15  15  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest satellite imagery have lowered sky cover for this
morning in the east and based on latest guidance increased clouds
in the east for this afternoon. For this morning have removed the
mention of a slight chance of snow for Helena and surrounding
areas. Not seeing much in the way of fog on satellite imagery and
web camera images so have removed the mention of patchy fog for
this morning. Forecast highs for today will be tricky along the
east slopes. Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone
but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least
several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not
have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs.
Farther northeast confidence is higher that highs will not reach
inherited values due to such a cold start to the day and with snow
cover from yesterday so lowered values several degrees. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145z.
A few light snow showers are possible in the Helena area this
morning...with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT.
Expect increasing clouds this afternoon...with snow developing over
the Rocky Mountain Front. The snow will spread eastward
overnight...possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys
of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning. Overall VFR conditions this
morning will generally give way to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Mountains will become obscured through the day/evening. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015/
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  15  15  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011137
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145z.
A few light snow showers are possible in the Helena area this
morning...with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT.
Expect increasing clouds this afternoon...with snow developing over
the Rocky Mountain Front. The snow will spread eastward
overnight...possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys
of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning. Overall VFR conditions this
morning will generally give way to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Mountains will become obscured through the day/evening. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  20  17  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 011137
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145z.
A few light snow showers are possible in the Helena area this
morning...with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT.
Expect increasing clouds this afternoon...with snow developing over
the Rocky Mountain Front. The snow will spread eastward
overnight...possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys
of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning. Overall VFR conditions this
morning will generally give way to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Mountains will become obscured through the day/evening. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  20  17  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011051
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
Still seeing MVFR conditions with spotty areas of -SN over parts of
central MT as last remnants of moisture from the upper-level trof to
our east work their way out of the region.  Should continue to see
steady clearing from north-to-south overnight, which then sets up
possibility of fog at several terminals for early Sun morning.
Current TAFs (except KLWT) have predominantly IFR conditions
beginning 10-12Z, but confidence is only marginal on fog development
and visibilities, which may drop into LIFR category at some
airfields.  Any fog that does occur should dissipate by late morning
and expect VFR conditions with SCT-BKN clouds above 15000 ft through
late aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  20  17  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011051
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
Still seeing MVFR conditions with spotty areas of -SN over parts of
central MT as last remnants of moisture from the upper-level trof to
our east work their way out of the region.  Should continue to see
steady clearing from north-to-south overnight, which then sets up
possibility of fog at several terminals for early Sun morning.
Current TAFs (except KLWT) have predominantly IFR conditions
beginning 10-12Z, but confidence is only marginal on fog development
and visibilities, which may drop into LIFR category at some
airfields.  Any fog that does occur should dissipate by late morning
and expect VFR conditions with SCT-BKN clouds above 15000 ft through
late aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  20  17  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 010534
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
Still seeing MVFR conditions with spotty areas of -SN over parts of
central MT as last remnants of moisture from the upper-level trof to
our east work their way out of the region.  Should continue to see
steady clearing from north-to-south overnight, which then sets up
possibility of fog at several terminals for early Sun morning.
Current TAFs (except KLWT) have predominantly IFR conditions
beginning 10-12Z, but confidence is only marginal on fog development
and visibilities, which may drop into LIFR category at some
airfields.  Any fog that does occur should dissipate by late morning
and expect VFR conditions with SCT-BKN clouds above 15000 ft through
late aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 010534
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
Still seeing MVFR conditions with spotty areas of -SN over parts of
central MT as last remnants of moisture from the upper-level trof to
our east work their way out of the region.  Should continue to see
steady clearing from north-to-south overnight, which then sets up
possibility of fog at several terminals for early Sun morning.
Current TAFs (except KLWT) have predominantly IFR conditions
beginning 10-12Z, but confidence is only marginal on fog development
and visibilities, which may drop into LIFR category at some
airfields.  Any fog that does occur should dissipate by late morning
and expect VFR conditions with SCT-BKN clouds above 15000 ft through
late aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 010358
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 010358
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 010358
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 010358
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 312343
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB   2  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   9  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   5  32  24  44 /  20  10  30  20
WEY   3  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  12  38  27  45 /  10  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  30   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine... Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 312343
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB   2  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   9  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   5  32  24  44 /  20  10  30  20
WEY   3  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  12  38  27  45 /  10  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  30   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine... Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 312151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
251 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
This is a low confidence forecast as guidance indicates conditions
ranging from VFR to IFR into Sunday morning. The period starts off
with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow over the
plains with mountains generally obscured. Snow will diminish late
this afternoon and evening with visibilities generally improving.
The big forecast problem is what will happen overnight as some
guidance develops VFR conditions while other guidance lowers
ceilings to IFR and also develops IFR visibilities in freezing fog.
Do not have a strong feeling as to which way to go. For southwest
Montana for early this afternoon expect conditions to range from VFR
over Beaverhead County to periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities and mountain obscurement in snow for northern portions
of southwest Montana. Here snow will diminish later this afternoon
and early evening with conditions becoming generally VFR. Like with
the plains conditions Sunday morning could range anywhere from VFR
to IFR in freezing fog. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB   2  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   9  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   5  32  24  44 /  20  10  30  20
WEY   3  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  12  38  27  45 /  10  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  30   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine... Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 312151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
251 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
This is a low confidence forecast as guidance indicates conditions
ranging from VFR to IFR into Sunday morning. The period starts off
with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow over the
plains with mountains generally obscured. Snow will diminish late
this afternoon and evening with visibilities generally improving.
The big forecast problem is what will happen overnight as some
guidance develops VFR conditions while other guidance lowers
ceilings to IFR and also develops IFR visibilities in freezing fog.
Do not have a strong feeling as to which way to go. For southwest
Montana for early this afternoon expect conditions to range from VFR
over Beaverhead County to periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities and mountain obscurement in snow for northern portions
of southwest Montana. Here snow will diminish later this afternoon
and early evening with conditions becoming generally VFR. Like with
the plains conditions Sunday morning could range anywhere from VFR
to IFR in freezing fog. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB   2  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   9  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   5  32  24  44 /  20  10  30  20
WEY   3  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  12  38  27  45 /  10  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  30   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine... Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 312151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
251 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
This is a low confidence forecast as guidance indicates conditions
ranging from VFR to IFR into Sunday morning. The period starts off
with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow over the
plains with mountains generally obscured. Snow will diminish late
this afternoon and evening with visibilities generally improving.
The big forecast problem is what will happen overnight as some
guidance develops VFR conditions while other guidance lowers
ceilings to IFR and also develops IFR visibilities in freezing fog.
Do not have a strong feeling as to which way to go. For southwest
Montana for early this afternoon expect conditions to range from VFR
over Beaverhead County to periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities and mountain obscurement in snow for northern portions
of southwest Montana. Here snow will diminish later this afternoon
and early evening with conditions becoming generally VFR. Like with
the plains conditions Sunday morning could range anywhere from VFR
to IFR in freezing fog. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB   2  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   9  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   5  32  24  44 /  20  10  30  20
WEY   3  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  12  38  27  45 /  10  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  30   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine... Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311754
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Cold front has passed completely through North-central Montana,
with light to locally moderate snowfall developing behind the
front. North winds up to around 25 mph are helping a broad area of
upslope snow develop across Teton, Cascade, Chouteau, and Hill
counties. Snow is expected to continue in these areas through mid
afternoon before tapering. Snowfall rates have already slowed
along western portions of the Hi-line as temperatures turn colder.
Areas of blowing snow and snow covered roadways will slow travel
through the afternoon. Fair weather continues in southwest
Montana. Updated the forecast to strengthen winds per observations
across North-central Montana and raised QPF/snow slightly to the
west in Cascade and Teton counties. Overall forecast package with
Winter Weather Advisory remain in generally good shape. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
This is a low confidence forecast as guidance indicates conditions
ranging from VFR to IFR into Sunday morning. The period starts off
with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow over the
plains with mountains generally obscured. Snow will diminish late
this afternoon and evening with visibilities generally improving.
The big forecast problem is what will happen overnight as some
guidance develops VFR conditions while other guidance lowers
ceilings to IFR and also develops IFR visibilities in freezing fog.
Do not have a strong feeling as to which way to go. For southwest
Montana for early this afternoon expect conditions to range from VFR
over Beaverhead County to periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities and mountain obscurement in snow for northern portions
of southwest Montana. Here snow will diminish later this afternoon
and early evening with conditions becoming generally VFR. Like with
the plains conditions Sunday morning could range anywhere from VFR
to IFR in freezing fog. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 441 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 / 100  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311754
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Cold front has passed completely through North-central Montana,
with light to locally moderate snowfall developing behind the
front. North winds up to around 25 mph are helping a broad area of
upslope snow develop across Teton, Cascade, Chouteau, and Hill
counties. Snow is expected to continue in these areas through mid
afternoon before tapering. Snowfall rates have already slowed
along western portions of the Hi-line as temperatures turn colder.
Areas of blowing snow and snow covered roadways will slow travel
through the afternoon. Fair weather continues in southwest
Montana. Updated the forecast to strengthen winds per observations
across North-central Montana and raised QPF/snow slightly to the
west in Cascade and Teton counties. Overall forecast package with
Winter Weather Advisory remain in generally good shape. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
This is a low confidence forecast as guidance indicates conditions
ranging from VFR to IFR into Sunday morning. The period starts off
with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow over the
plains with mountains generally obscured. Snow will diminish late
this afternoon and evening with visibilities generally improving.
The big forecast problem is what will happen overnight as some
guidance develops VFR conditions while other guidance lowers
ceilings to IFR and also develops IFR visibilities in freezing fog.
Do not have a strong feeling as to which way to go. For southwest
Montana for early this afternoon expect conditions to range from VFR
over Beaverhead County to periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities and mountain obscurement in snow for northern portions
of southwest Montana. Here snow will diminish later this afternoon
and early evening with conditions becoming generally VFR. Like with
the plains conditions Sunday morning could range anywhere from VFR
to IFR in freezing fog. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 441 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 / 100  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 311635
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Cold front has passed completely through North-central Montana,
with light to locally moderate snowfall developing behind the
front. North winds up to around 25 mph are helping a broad area of
upslope snow develop across Teton, Cascade, Chouteau, and Hill
counties. Snow is expected to continue in these areas through mid
afternoon before tapering. Snowfall rates have already slowed
along western portions of the Hi-line as temperatures turn colder.
Areas of blowing snow and snow covered roadways will slow travel
through the afternoon. Fair weather continues in southwest
Montana. Updated the forecast to strengthen winds per observations
across North-central Montana and raised QPF/snow slightly to the
west in Cascade and Teton counties. Overall forecast package with
Winter Weather Advisory remain in generally good shape. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1141Z.
Canadian cold front continues to move south through central Montana
and will move through southwest Montana early this afternoon. Gusty
north winds with LIFR/IFR conditions will prevail behind the front
with widespread snow developing across north central Montana this
morning. Scattered snow showers and areas of fog are expected in
southwest Montana. Conditions will gradually improve after 00Z but
MVFR ceilings and areas of fog are expected to persist overnight. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 441 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 / 100  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 311635
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Cold front has passed completely through North-central Montana,
with light to locally moderate snowfall developing behind the
front. North winds up to around 25 mph are helping a broad area of
upslope snow develop across Teton, Cascade, Chouteau, and Hill
counties. Snow is expected to continue in these areas through mid
afternoon before tapering. Snowfall rates have already slowed
along western portions of the Hi-line as temperatures turn colder.
Areas of blowing snow and snow covered roadways will slow travel
through the afternoon. Fair weather continues in southwest
Montana. Updated the forecast to strengthen winds per observations
across North-central Montana and raised QPF/snow slightly to the
west in Cascade and Teton counties. Overall forecast package with
Winter Weather Advisory remain in generally good shape. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1141Z.
Canadian cold front continues to move south through central Montana
and will move through southwest Montana early this afternoon. Gusty
north winds with LIFR/IFR conditions will prevail behind the front
with widespread snow developing across north central Montana this
morning. Scattered snow showers and areas of fog are expected in
southwest Montana. Conditions will gradually improve after 00Z but
MVFR ceilings and areas of fog are expected to persist overnight. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 441 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 / 100  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 311141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
441 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1141Z.
Canadian cold front continues to move south through central Montana
and will move through southwest Montana early this afternoon. Gusty
north winds with LIFR/IFR conditions will prevail behind the front
with widespread snow developing across north central Montana this
morning. Scattered snow showers and areas of fog are expected in
southwest Montana. Conditions will gradually improve after 00Z but
MVFR ceilings and areas of fog are expected to persist overnight. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 /  90  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine...Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
441 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1141Z.
Canadian cold front continues to move south through central Montana
and will move through southwest Montana early this afternoon. Gusty
north winds with LIFR/IFR conditions will prevail behind the front
with widespread snow developing across north central Montana this
morning. Scattered snow showers and areas of fog are expected in
southwest Montana. Conditions will gradually improve after 00Z but
MVFR ceilings and areas of fog are expected to persist overnight. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 /  90  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine...Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 311024
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 10z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 /  90  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine...Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 311024
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...A Canadian cold front continues to push
southward through the region. As of 3 AM...the cold front was
along a line from just south of Great Falls to just north of
Lewistown. The cold front will continue to move southward through
the day...and should be in the Helena area by mid morning...and in
the Bozeman area around mid day. The cold front will likely slowly
back into the Dillon area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
slowly fall behind the cold front...thus morning high temperatures
expected in many areas. Light snow is slow to develop over North
Central MT...but as of 3 AM...it is slowly developing north of
Highway 2. The previous forecast for snowfall looks on track. I
did add Judith Basin to the advisory...as some blowing snow will
affect that region as well. Most of the accumulating snowfall will
end this evening...so I did end the advisory at Midnight tonight.
For Sunday...the cold air will start to retreat a bit...especially
for areas west of I-15 and south of Great Falls.
Additionally...precipitation will develop during the afternoon
hours mainly west of I-15...and spread eastward overnight.
Temperatures will be near freezing...so some rain will mix in. At
this time...I held off on freezing rain and will monitor that
closely. For Monday...snow is likely to continue up in the Havre
area...as the warm front stalls out in that region. Scattered
rain/snow showers will be possible elsewhere. Snowfall amounts on
Monday will generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the western
mountains and in the Havre area...with lesser snowfall amounts
elsewhere. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, tonights model runs suggest
that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress ridge
development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance the high winds will affect the
Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through Saturday.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 10z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30   9  34  30 /  90  30  20  30
CTB  25   5  28  20 / 100  20  20  30
HLN  33  11  34  28 /  30  10  10  20
BZN  36  12  32  26 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  27   8  28  22 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  31  18  38  28 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  25   4  25  19 / 100  40  10  30
LWT  25   6  30  25 / 100  40  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Blaine...Chouteau...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 310554
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region this
evening with the next upper level shortwave to impact the area seen
moving into SE BC. Weak low pressure trough exists at the surface
to the east of the Rockies with observations upstream in AB
indicating the frontal boundary expected to move south across the
border late tonight now in between Calgary and Lethbridge. This
reinforces the expected timing of the frontal passage across the
border around midnight and into central MT by Saturday morning.
Precipitation lags behind to the north and is just beginning in
Calgary, also supporting current forecast of snow developing and
spreading south across the region Saturday morning/mid-day with
the arrival of the mid level shortwave and upper level jet.
Current forecast appears to be in good shape with no updates
planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 10z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 310554
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region this
evening with the next upper level shortwave to impact the area seen
moving into SE BC. Weak low pressure trough exists at the surface
to the east of the Rockies with observations upstream in AB
indicating the frontal boundary expected to move south across the
border late tonight now in between Calgary and Lethbridge. This
reinforces the expected timing of the frontal passage across the
border around midnight and into central MT by Saturday morning.
Precipitation lags behind to the north and is just beginning in
Calgary, also supporting current forecast of snow developing and
spreading south across the region Saturday morning/mid-day with
the arrival of the mid level shortwave and upper level jet.
Current forecast appears to be in good shape with no updates
planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 10z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 310417
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
917 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region this
evening with the next upper level shortwave to impact the area seen
moving into SE BC. Weak low pressure trough exists at the surface
to the east of the Rockies with observations upstream in AB
indicating the frontal boundary expected to move south across the
border late tonight now in between Calgary and Lethbridge. This
reinforces the expected timing of the frontal passage across the
border around midnight and into central MT by Saturday morning.
Precipitation lags behind to the north and is just beginning in
Calgary, also supporting current forecast of snow developing and
spreading south across the region Saturday morning/mid-day with
the arrival of the mid level shortwave and upper level jet.
Current forecast appears to be in good shape with no updates
planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 12z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 310417
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
917 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region this
evening with the next upper level shortwave to impact the area seen
moving into SE BC. Weak low pressure trough exists at the surface
to the east of the Rockies with observations upstream in AB
indicating the frontal boundary expected to move south across the
border late tonight now in between Calgary and Lethbridge. This
reinforces the expected timing of the frontal passage across the
border around midnight and into central MT by Saturday morning.
Precipitation lags behind to the north and is just beginning in
Calgary, also supporting current forecast of snow developing and
spreading south across the region Saturday morning/mid-day with
the arrival of the mid level shortwave and upper level jet.
Current forecast appears to be in good shape with no updates
planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 12z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
An upper level shortwave will move through the northwest flow aloft
and cross the Rockies Saturday morning. An associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border around 12z Saturday. Gusty north
winds and IFR conditions are likely as this front moves south
through Central Montana. Widespread MVFR conditions, and a chance of
IFR conditions, will continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 302130
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue with a few high clouds
passing over the area. A disturbance aloft will approach the area
after 06z resulting in increasing low and mid clouds. A surface cold
front will also begin pushing south after 06z. Areas of snow will
develop behind the front and continue through 00z Sunday. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and snow across northern Montana after 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302130
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Clear and mild conditions prevail this
evening with an upper level split flow over the region. A
low-amplitude shortwave trof presently over British Columbia will
move through central Montana on Saturday. The surface cold front
associated with this feature will cross the International border
around 09Z. Synoptic-scale dynamical support with low-level upslope
flow will support snowfall across North Central Montana. Froude
numbers support mid-slope snow accumulation based on local office
research. Moisture is limited, and the system will move quickly.
Therefore, expected snow totals are 1-3 inches over the plains with
2-5 inches over the central mountains. The NAM-12 suggests banding
possible on the north-facing aspects of the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains. A winter weather advisory has been issued to cover
travel impacts associated with this snowfall. Snow ends early
Sunday. The next wave approaches from the west late Sunday with
increasing PoPS over northern portions of the Continental Divide.
Nutter

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue with a few high clouds
passing over the area. A disturbance aloft will approach the area
after 06z resulting in increasing low and mid clouds. A surface cold
front will also begin pushing south after 06z. Areas of snow will
develop behind the front and continue through 00z Sunday. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and snow across northern Montana after 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  28   8  34 /  10  90  30  10
CTB  21  23   4  28 /  20  70  20  10
HLN  19  31  11  34 /   0  50  20  10
BZN  14  36  11  32 /   0  10  20  10
WEY   7  34   7  27 /   0  10  20  20
DLN  19  44  18  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  21  26   3  23 /  30  90  30  10
LWT  21  27   6  30 /   0  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures prevail over the region
this morning. Southwest moisture is spreading high clouds over the
southwest zones, while increasing winds aloft are creating a small
area of mountain wave clouds in southern Alberta into northern
portions of central Montana. Raised max temps today just a few
degrees to better match observed trends and freshened sky grids with
this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue with a few high clouds
passing over the area. A disturbance aloft will approach the area
after 06z resulting in increasing low and mid clouds. A surface cold
front will also begin pushing south after 06z. Areas of snow will
develop behind the front and continue through 00z Sunday. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and snow across northern Montana after 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures prevail over the region
this morning. Southwest moisture is spreading high clouds over the
southwest zones, while increasing winds aloft are creating a small
area of mountain wave clouds in southern Alberta into northern
portions of central Montana. Raised max temps today just a few
degrees to better match observed trends and freshened sky grids with
this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue with a few high clouds
passing over the area. A disturbance aloft will approach the area
after 06z resulting in increasing low and mid clouds. A surface cold
front will also begin pushing south after 06z. Areas of snow will
develop behind the front and continue through 00z Sunday. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and snow across northern Montana after 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301626
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures prevail over the region
this morning. Southwest moisture is spreading high clouds over the
southwest zones, while increasing winds aloft are creating a small
area of mountain wave clouds in southern Alberta into northern
portions of central Montana. Raised max temps today just a few
degrees to better match observed trends and freshened sky grids with
this update. Nutter


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Generally dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana today
through this evening for widespread VFR conditions. However, patch
fog has developed along the Hi-line and should persist until about
15Z but I have removed mention of fog from the KHVR terminal due to
patchy nature. Upper level disturbance will approach the region
early Saturday morning with increasing low and mid level clouds over
the northern third of the forecast area. An associated surface cold
front will push south out of Canada with light snow expected to
develop along the Hi-Line after 09Z. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301626
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures prevail over the region
this morning. Southwest moisture is spreading high clouds over the
southwest zones, while increasing winds aloft are creating a small
area of mountain wave clouds in southern Alberta into northern
portions of central Montana. Raised max temps today just a few
degrees to better match observed trends and freshened sky grids with
this update. Nutter


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Generally dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana today
through this evening for widespread VFR conditions. However, patch
fog has developed along the Hi-line and should persist until about
15Z but I have removed mention of fog from the KHVR terminal due to
patchy nature. Upper level disturbance will approach the region
early Saturday morning with increasing low and mid level clouds over
the northern third of the forecast area. An associated surface cold
front will push south out of Canada with light snow expected to
develop along the Hi-Line after 09Z. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015/
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
434 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Generally dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana today
through this evening for widespread VFR conditions. However, patch
fog has developed along the Hi-line and should persist until about
15Z but I have removed mention of fog from the KHVR terminal due to
patchy nature. Upper level disturbance will approach the region
early Saturday morning with increasing low and mid level clouds over
the northern third of the forecast area. An associated surface cold
front will push south out of Canada with light snow expected to
develop along the Hi-Line after 09Z. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
434 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Generally dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana today
through this evening for widespread VFR conditions. However, patch
fog has developed along the Hi-line and should persist until about
15Z but I have removed mention of fog from the KHVR terminal due to
patchy nature. Upper level disturbance will approach the region
early Saturday morning with increasing low and mid level clouds over
the northern third of the forecast area. An associated surface cold
front will push south out of Canada with light snow expected to
develop along the Hi-Line after 09Z. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hi-line, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...Today will be the last widespread nice day
for awhile across all of North Central and Southwest MT...as a
more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. For
today...afternoon highs will mostly be in the 40s...with sunny
skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Patchy
freezing fog will affect areas mainly north of Highway 2 from
Shelby to Harlem through mid morning today. For tonight...a
Canadian cold front will move southward through the region. The
cold front should arrive in the Cut Bank area around Midnight...in
Great Falls/Havre areas around 3 AM...Lewistown around
5 AM...Helena around 8 AM and Bozeman by mid day Saturday. Snow
will develop behind the cold front...but the majority of the
accumulating snowfall will affect areas mainly north of a Helena
to White Sulphur Springs line. South of that line...any snow
accumulations should be minor...with most areas seeing less than a
half inch. North of the Helena/White Sulphur Springs line...about
1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the Lewistown/Great Falls/Cut
Bank areas...with 2 to 3 inches in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem
areas. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from 3 AM Saturday
until about 8 PM Saturday evening. Thus pops have been raised
quite a bit during the day on Saturday...but this is more for the
event/confidence of snowfall on Saturday. On Saturday...high
temperatures will be in the morning...with slowly falling
temperatures the remainder of the day. It will be a cold start on
Sunday morning...with areas east of I-15 not warming up much on
Sunday. For areas west of I-15 on Sunday...a fast moving warm
front is expected to develop and start to push eastward through
the region during the afternoon hours. Thus temperatures will be a
bit warmer...especially over Southwest MT. Additionally...there is
a chance for snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
Plains by late Sunday afternoon...although confidence is low for
location/amounts of snow on Sunday. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Shortwave energy in a moist
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a continuing chance for light
rain and snow across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday. More
widespread snow is expected over the western mountains but
accumulations amounts do not look overly impressive at this time. By
Monday night, however, models are in good agreement pushing another
batch of cold Canadian air into central Montana along with periods
of snow. This system will continue to move southward through the
state with a band of precipitation gradually moving into southwest
Montana by Tuesday night. For the remainder of the week, models are
in relatively good agreement in building an upper level ridge over
the northern Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm back
toward seasonal averages by Thursday with highs possibly climbing
well above average by Friday. Breezy and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail at lower elevations with a chance for precipitation
expected to persist over the western mountains as flow aloft
squeezes out any moisture due to orographic lift. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hi-line, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  24  27  11 /   0   0  90  30
CTB  44  22  22   7 /   0  20  90  20
HLN  42  20  35  16 /   0   0  30  20
BZN  40  17  37  16 /   0   0  20  20
WEY  37   8  34   9 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  43  20  44  19 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  40  21  23   5 /   0  20  90  30
LWT  44  23  26   9 /   0   0  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...

An upper level ridge of high pressure extending north through the
interior western US will maintain a dry NW flow aloft over the
region tonight. Mid-high level clouds associated with a very weak
disturbance moving east through the upper ridge should move off to
the east of the region later tonight. So far this evening,
temperatures have been somewhat slow to cool over much of
central/SW MT, however with decreasing cloud-cover have opted not
to update minimum temperatures tonight as additional cooling is
anticipated. Potential fog development is still expected in the
Milk River Valley, including Havre and Chinook where temp/dewpoint
spread is small and winds will remain fairly light. Forecast
handles this well with no updates planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hiline, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 436 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015/

Tonight through Saturday...A weak, split northwesterly flow aloft
will maintain fair weather over North-central and southwest Montana
through Friday. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages.
Persistent freezing fog was noted along the Hi-Line this morning.
Conditions will persist overnight, so have added patchy freezing
fog overnight. Ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday. A weak shortwave trof moving quickly through this flow
will trail a cold front into north-central Montana Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop below average on Saturday behind
the front. Shallow upslope precipitation will develop behind this
front. Moisture is limited in the northwest flow, so snowfall
amounts will be generally one-half to two inches. Winter weather
headlines are not warranted at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Dry weather persists in the southwest will near normal
temperatures. Nutter

Saturday Night through Thursday...Light snow showers will
continue Saturday night as an upper-level disturbance continues
to move through the area. Additional snow accumulations Saturday
night into Sunday morning will be less than an inch. Beginning on
Sunday, the flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly as a Pacific
weather system pushes into the Northern Rockies. Increasing
Pacific moisture and milder airmass associated with this system
will move over a cooler airmass at the surface across north-
central and southwest Montana with the possibility for mixed
precipitation on Monday morning, however forecast confidence
remains low. Models also coming into better alignment for Tuesday.
Shortwave energy looks stronger and have raised precipitation
chances. Also, the surge of colder air into the area late Tuesday,
combined with the expected snow, has resulted in colder
temperatures for Wednesday morning.

Though long-range forecast models indicate that an active weather
pattern may persist through the remainder of the week, there
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, precipitation
coverage and amounts. The ECMWF is the colder and wetter solution,
while the GFS keeps drier, yet unsettled northwest flow over the
Treasure State with temperatures near seasonal averages. Given
these differences, have kept PoPs near climo and temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  28  45  24  30 /   0   0  10  50
CTB  25  44  22  24 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  21  40  20  35 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  18  39  17  35 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  10  36   7  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  21  43  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  22  40  22  25 /   0   0  20  70
LWT  25  42  21  30 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 300500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...

An upper level ridge of high pressure extending north through the
interior western US will maintain a dry NW flow aloft over the
region tonight. Mid-high level clouds associated with a very weak
disturbance moving east through the upper ridge should move off to
the east of the region later tonight. So far this evening,
temperatures have been somewhat slow to cool over much of
central/SW MT, however with decreasing cloud-cover have opted not
to update minimum temperatures tonight as additional cooling is
anticipated. Potential fog development is still expected in the
Milk River Valley, including Havre and Chinook where temp/dewpoint
spread is small and winds will remain fairly light. Forecast
handles this well with no updates planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hiline, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 436 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015/

Tonight through Saturday...A weak, split northwesterly flow aloft
will maintain fair weather over North-central and southwest Montana
through Friday. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages.
Persistent freezing fog was noted along the Hi-Line this morning.
Conditions will persist overnight, so have added patchy freezing
fog overnight. Ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday. A weak shortwave trof moving quickly through this flow
will trail a cold front into north-central Montana Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop below average on Saturday behind
the front. Shallow upslope precipitation will develop behind this
front. Moisture is limited in the northwest flow, so snowfall
amounts will be generally one-half to two inches. Winter weather
headlines are not warranted at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Dry weather persists in the southwest will near normal
temperatures. Nutter

Saturday Night through Thursday...Light snow showers will
continue Saturday night as an upper-level disturbance continues
to move through the area. Additional snow accumulations Saturday
night into Sunday morning will be less than an inch. Beginning on
Sunday, the flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly as a Pacific
weather system pushes into the Northern Rockies. Increasing
Pacific moisture and milder airmass associated with this system
will move over a cooler airmass at the surface across north-
central and southwest Montana with the possibility for mixed
precipitation on Monday morning, however forecast confidence
remains low. Models also coming into better alignment for Tuesday.
Shortwave energy looks stronger and have raised precipitation
chances. Also, the surge of colder air into the area late Tuesday,
combined with the expected snow, has resulted in colder
temperatures for Wednesday morning.

Though long-range forecast models indicate that an active weather
pattern may persist through the remainder of the week, there
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, precipitation
coverage and amounts. The ECMWF is the colder and wetter solution,
while the GFS keeps drier, yet unsettled northwest flow over the
Treasure State with temperatures near seasonal averages. Given
these differences, have kept PoPs near climo and temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  28  45  24  30 /   0   0  10  50
CTB  25  44  22  24 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  21  40  20  35 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  18  39  17  35 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  10  36   7  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  21  43  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  22  40  22  25 /   0   0  20  70
LWT  25  42  21  30 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 300359
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...

An upper level ridge of high pressure extending north through the
interior western US will maintain a dry NW flow aloft over the
region tonight. Mid-high level clouds associated with a very weak
disturbance moving east through the upper ridge should move off to
the east of the region later tonight. So far this evening,
temperatures have been somewhat slow to cool over much of
central/SW MT, however with decreasing cloud-cover have opted not
to update minimum temperatures tonight as additional cooling is
anticipated. Potential fog development is still expected in the
Milk River Valley, including Havre and Chinook where temp/dewpoint
spread is small and winds will remain fairly light. Forecast
handles this well with no updates planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2334Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hiline, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 436 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015/

Tonight through Saturday...A weak, split northwesterly flow aloft
will maintain fair weather over North-central and southwest Montana
through Friday. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages.
Persistent freezing fog was noted along the Hi-Line this morning.
Conditions will persist overnight, so have added patchy freezing
fog overnight. Ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday. A weak shortwave trof moving quickly through this flow
will trail a cold front into north-central Montana Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop below average on Saturday behind
the front. Shallow upslope precipitation will develop behind this
front. Moisture is limited in the northwest flow, so snowfall
amounts will be generally one-half to two inches. Winter weather
headlines are not warranted at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Dry weather persists in the southwest will near normal
temperatures. Nutter

Saturday Night through Thursday...Light snow showers will
continue Saturday night as an upper-level disturbance continues
to move through the area. Additional snow accumulations Saturday
night into Sunday morning will be less than an inch. Beginning on
Sunday, the flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly as a Pacific
weather system pushes into the Northern Rockies. Increasing
Pacific moisture and milder airmass associated with this system
will move over a cooler airmass at the surface across north-
central and southwest Montana with the possibility for mixed
precipitation on Monday morning, however forecast confidence
remains low. Models also coming into better alignment for Tuesday.
Shortwave energy looks stronger and have raised precipitation
chances. Also, the surge of colder air into the area late Tuesday,
combined with the expected snow, has resulted in colder
temperatures for Wednesday morning.

Though long-range forecast models indicate that an active weather
pattern may persist through the remainder of the week, there
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, precipitation
coverage and amounts. The ECMWF is the colder and wetter solution,
while the GFS keeps drier, yet unsettled northwest flow over the
Treasure State with temperatures near seasonal averages. Given
these differences, have kept PoPs near climo and temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  28  45  24  30 /   0   0  10  50
CTB  25  44  22  24 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  21  40  20  35 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  18  39  17  35 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  10  36   7  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  21  43  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  22  40  22  25 /   0   0  20  70
LWT  25  42  21  30 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 300359
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...

An upper level ridge of high pressure extending north through the
interior western US will maintain a dry NW flow aloft over the
region tonight. Mid-high level clouds associated with a very weak
disturbance moving east through the upper ridge should move off to
the east of the region later tonight. So far this evening,
temperatures have been somewhat slow to cool over much of
central/SW MT, however with decreasing cloud-cover have opted not
to update minimum temperatures tonight as additional cooling is
anticipated. Potential fog development is still expected in the
Milk River Valley, including Havre and Chinook where temp/dewpoint
spread is small and winds will remain fairly light. Forecast
handles this well with no updates planned this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2334Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hiline, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 436 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015/

Tonight through Saturday...A weak, split northwesterly flow aloft
will maintain fair weather over North-central and southwest Montana
through Friday. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages.
Persistent freezing fog was noted along the Hi-Line this morning.
Conditions will persist overnight, so have added patchy freezing
fog overnight. Ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday. A weak shortwave trof moving quickly through this flow
will trail a cold front into north-central Montana Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop below average on Saturday behind
the front. Shallow upslope precipitation will develop behind this
front. Moisture is limited in the northwest flow, so snowfall
amounts will be generally one-half to two inches. Winter weather
headlines are not warranted at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Dry weather persists in the southwest will near normal
temperatures. Nutter

Saturday Night through Thursday...Light snow showers will
continue Saturday night as an upper-level disturbance continues
to move through the area. Additional snow accumulations Saturday
night into Sunday morning will be less than an inch. Beginning on
Sunday, the flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly as a Pacific
weather system pushes into the Northern Rockies. Increasing
Pacific moisture and milder airmass associated with this system
will move over a cooler airmass at the surface across north-
central and southwest Montana with the possibility for mixed
precipitation on Monday morning, however forecast confidence
remains low. Models also coming into better alignment for Tuesday.
Shortwave energy looks stronger and have raised precipitation
chances. Also, the surge of colder air into the area late Tuesday,
combined with the expected snow, has resulted in colder
temperatures for Wednesday morning.

Though long-range forecast models indicate that an active weather
pattern may persist through the remainder of the week, there
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, precipitation
coverage and amounts. The ECMWF is the colder and wetter solution,
while the GFS keeps drier, yet unsettled northwest flow over the
Treasure State with temperatures near seasonal averages. Given
these differences, have kept PoPs near climo and temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  28  45  24  30 /   0   0  10  50
CTB  25  44  22  24 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  21  40  20  35 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  18  39  17  35 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  10  36   7  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  21  43  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  22  40  22  25 /   0   0  20  70
LWT  25  42  21  30 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 292336
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
436 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...A weak, split northwesterly flow aloft
will maintain fair weather over North-central and southwest Montana
through Friday. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages.
Persistent freezing fog was noted along the Hi-Line this morning.
Conditions will persist overnight, so have added patchy freezing
fog overnight. Ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday. A weak shortwave trof moving quickly through this flow
will trail a cold front into north-central Montana Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop below average on Saturday behind
the front. Shallow upslope precipitation will develop behind this
front. Moisture is limited in the northwest flow, so snowfall
amounts will be generally one-half to two inches. Winter weather
headlines are not warranted at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Dry weather persists in the southwest will near normal
temperatures. Nutter

Saturday Night through Thursday...Light snow showers will
continue Saturday night as an upper-level disturbance continues
to move through the area. Additional snow accumulations Saturday
night into Sunday morning will be less than an inch. Beginning on
Sunday, the flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly as a Pacific
weather system pushes into the Northern Rockies. Increasing
Pacific moisture and milder airmass associated with this system
will move over a cooler airmass at the surface across north-
central and southwest Montana with the possibility for mixed
precipitation on Monday morning, however forecast confidence
remains low. Models also coming into better alignment for Tuesday.
Shortwave energy looks stronger and have raised precipitation
chances. Also, the surge of colder air into the area late Tuesday,
combined with the expected snow, has resulted in colder
temperatures for Wednesday morning.

Though long-range forecast models indicate that an active weather
pattern may persist through the remainder of the week, there
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, precipitation
coverage and amounts. The ECMWF is the colder and wetter solution,
while the GFS keeps drier, yet unsettled northwest flow over the
Treasure State with temperatures near seasonal averages. Given
these differences, have kept PoPs near climo and temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2334Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hiline, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  28  45  24  30 /   0   0  10  50
CTB  25  44  22  24 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  21  40  20  35 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  18  39  17  35 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  10  36   7  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  21  43  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  22  40  22  25 /   0   0  20  70
LWT  25  42  21  30 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 292336
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
436 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...A weak, split northwesterly flow aloft
will maintain fair weather over North-central and southwest Montana
through Friday. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages.
Persistent freezing fog was noted along the Hi-Line this morning.
Conditions will persist overnight, so have added patchy freezing
fog overnight. Ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday. A weak shortwave trof moving quickly through this flow
will trail a cold front into north-central Montana Saturday
morning. Temperatures will drop below average on Saturday behind
the front. Shallow upslope precipitation will develop behind this
front. Moisture is limited in the northwest flow, so snowfall
amounts will be generally one-half to two inches. Winter weather
headlines are not warranted at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Dry weather persists in the southwest will near normal
temperatures. Nutter

Saturday Night through Thursday...Light snow showers will
continue Saturday night as an upper-level disturbance continues
to move through the area. Additional snow accumulations Saturday
night into Sunday morning will be less than an inch. Beginning on
Sunday, the flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly as a Pacific
weather system pushes into the Northern Rockies. Increasing
Pacific moisture and milder airmass associated with this system
will move over a cooler airmass at the surface across north-
central and southwest Montana with the possibility for mixed
precipitation on Monday morning, however forecast confidence
remains low. Models also coming into better alignment for Tuesday.
Shortwave energy looks stronger and have raised precipitation
chances. Also, the surge of colder air into the area late Tuesday,
combined with the expected snow, has resulted in colder
temperatures for Wednesday morning.

Though long-range forecast models indicate that an active weather
pattern may persist through the remainder of the week, there
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, precipitation
coverage and amounts. The ECMWF is the colder and wetter solution,
while the GFS keeps drier, yet unsettled northwest flow over the
Treasure State with temperatures near seasonal averages. Given
these differences, have kept PoPs near climo and temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2334Z.
Central Montana will remain underneath high pressure aloft through
Friday and the airmass will remain dry with light surface winds. Fog
will likely develop again along portions of the Hiline, including
KHVR, towards midnight. Local IFR cigs and vsbys are possible until
mid-morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  28  45  24  30 /   0   0  10  50
CTB  25  44  22  24 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  21  40  20  35 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  18  39  17  35 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  10  36   7  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  21  43  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  22  40  22  25 /   0   0  20  70
LWT  25  42  21  30 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








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