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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
457 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening downslope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the
TAF period. Brief intrusions into MVFR due to lowered cloud
ceilings will be possible especially over KBZN and KHLN due to
some instability associated with a weak Pacific Cold front. Winds
will remain breezy today especially near the frontal passage. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /  10  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  20  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  20  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  50  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  20  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /  20  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Monday Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231101
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Unsettled weather conditions will continue
through the short term period as an active northwesterly flow
aloft remains over the region. Scattered rain and snow showers
over the region will diminish over the next few hours as shortwave
energy pushes through the forecast area. The current batch of
Winter Weather Advisories will be dropped with this mornings
package. However, another push of Pacific moisture will bring
precipitation to the western and central Montana mountains this
afternoon and overnight. Latest models suggest that Marias Pass
and Kings Hill Pass could see 3 to 6 inches of snow during this
period so am issuing another batch of Winter Weather Advisories
for these areas. Precipitation diminishes to scattered showers
again for Monday afternoon and evening but another surge of
moisture coupled with increasing mid and high level winds and a
strengthening downslope pressure gradient develops early Tuesday
morning. Strong westerly winds can once more be expected along the
Rocky Mountain Front from Glacier Park southward to MacDonald Pass
so have issued a High Wind Watch for these locations from late
Monday evening through early Tuesday afternoon. A surface low
pressure system in southern Alberta will sweep southeastward
through the day on Tuesday allowing northerly winds to develop
across north central Montana during the afternoon. This will
result in a significant surface convergence zone across central
Montana with uplift causing a good likelihood of precipitation.
Precipitation could start off in rain in some locations but
temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon with widespread
snow expected across much of the region by late afternoon. Am
expecting that highlights could be required before all is said and
done with this developing storm system. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a potentially significant precipitation
producing system looks to impact the Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately model confidence remains low due to a high variation
in model solutions. Have once again gone with a blend of model
consensus and then skewed it towards the ECMWF. This solution
keeps temperatures near seasonal values ahead of Thanksgiving, but
with a reinforcing push of cold air temperatures could drop down
below averages and possibly near zero. This solution also has a
potentially significant amount of moisture stream across the
divide and then produce snow showers over much of the region in a
multiple day event. Again there is low confidence in the amount of
or timing of snow over a particular area. Winter weather highlights
may become necessary if models begin to come into agreement about
this solution. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.
Surface pressure gradient and winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trof that moved through the region earlier today
continue to steadily decrease tonight, allowing wind gusts to drop
below 25 kts over all but a handful of locations. Expect VFR
conditions with a mix of SCT to OVC mid-level (generally above 5000
ft) over central and southwest MT tonight.  Small area of -RASN
south and west of KHVR will persist and may drift toward KHVR so
will keep mention of VCSH until Sun morning.  A weak trof currently
over western MT will cross the Continental Divide later tonight,
bringing some scattered -SHRASN and ceilings lowering to around
3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN starting around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  26  39  28 /  10  20  10  20
CTB  37  25  37  26 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  39  27  38  25 /  20  30  20  30
BZN  34  18  33  15 /  20  40  30  30
WEY  27  10  26   5 /  50  70  40  40
DLN  32  17  31  17 /  20  30  10  20
HVR  37  24  39  24 /  20  30  10  20
LWT  38  26  38  25 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Monday For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Monday Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.
Surface pressure gradient and winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trof that moved through the region earlier today
continue to steadily decrease tonight, allowing wind gusts to drop
below 25 kts over all but a handful of locations. Expect VFR
conditions with a mix of SCT to OVC mid-level (generally above 5000
ft) over central and southwest MT tonight.  Small area of -RASN
south and west of KHVR will persist and may drift toward KHVR so
will keep mention of VCSH until Sun morning.  A weak trof currently
over western MT will cross the Continental Divide later tonight,
bringing some scattered -SHRASN and ceilings lowering to around
3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN starting around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 230533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.
Surface pressure gradient and winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trof that moved through the region earlier today
continue to steadily decrease tonight, allowing wind gusts to drop
below 25 kts over all but a handful of locations. Expect VFR
conditions with a mix of SCT to OVC mid-level (generally above 5000
ft) over central and southwest MT tonight.  Small area of -RASN
south and west of KHVR will persist and may drift toward KHVR so
will keep mention of VCSH until Sun morning.  A weak trof currently
over western MT will cross the Continental Divide later tonight,
bringing some scattered -SHRASN and ceilings lowering to around
3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN starting around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 230349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Upper-level trof and its associated cold front and precipitation
that moved thru the region earlier today is now mostly in eastern
MT.  Tight surface pressure gradient and strong winds aloft from
that system will continue to generate gusty winds through 02-04Z
with area of strongest winds (G35-50kts) along/north of a KHLN-to-
KLWT line.  Winds will gradually decrease (gusts 20-25kts or less)
this evening as the trof heads further downstream.  Meanwhile,
latest radar/satellite imagery showing a second weaker disturbance
just crossing the US/Can border into north central MT, bringing
mid-level (generally above 6000 ft) ceilings and some isolated -SHRA
vcnty KHVR. Expect this system to track south-southeast this
evening, with VFR conditions continuing into tonight. Lastly, a
third system, this one currently over near WA/ID border, will arrive
early Sun morning, with scattered showers and ceilings lowering to
around 3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

The surface low and upper level trof that caused widespread high
winds this afternoon is tracking further away through southern
Saskatchewan. The surface pressure gradient has weakened, as has
the post-frontal subsidence. Observed winds are now all below high
wind criteria. Strong gusty winds will continue through early
Monday, but expected to trend lower. Therefore, have dropped the
high wind warning and lowered the forecast wind speeds accordingly.
A subtle shortwave feature is producing snow over central Idaho.
Short term model guidance moves this feature with light snow
showers across south- central and southwest Montana through Monday
morning. Additional snow accumulation will be less than 2 inches.
The winter weather advisory in this area will continue through
Monday morning for snow and blowing snow. Light flurries also
continue over the Northern Rockies, but dropped the winter weather
advisory here as little, if any, new snow accumulation is
expected. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Upper-level trof and its associated cold front and precipitation
that moved thru the region earlier today is now mostly in eastern
MT.  Tight surface pressure gradient and strong winds aloft from
that system will continue to generate gusty winds through 02-04Z
with area of strongest winds (G35-50kts) along/north of a KHLN-to-
KLWT line.  Winds will gradually decrease (gusts 20-25kts or less)
this evening as the trof heads further downstream.  Meanwhile,
latest radar/satellite imagery showing a second weaker disturbance
just crossing the US/Can border into north central MT, bringing
mid-level (generally above 6000 ft) ceilings and some isolated -SHRA
vcnty KHVR. Expect this system to track south-southeast this
evening, with VFR conditions continuing into tonight. Lastly, a
third system, this one currently over near WA/ID border, will arrive
early Sun morning, with scattered showers and ceilings lowering to
around 3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  36  24 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  48  28  39  27 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  18  34  18 /  90  30  20  40
WEY  35  11  25  11 / 100  50  40  60
DLN  43  20  32  16 /  90  30  20  30
HVR  51  26  35  22 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  50  26  36  24 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 222342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Upper-level trof and its associated cold front and precipitation
that moved thru the region earlier today is now mostly in eastern
MT.  Tight surface pressure gradient and strong winds aloft from
that system will continue to generate gusty winds through 02-04Z
with area of strongest winds (G35-50kts) along/north of a KHLN-to-
KLWT line.  Winds will gradually decrease (gusts 20-25kts or less)
this evening as the trof heads further downstream.  Meanwhile,
latest radar/satellite imagery showing a second weaker disturbance
just crossing the US/Can border into north central MT, bringing
mid-level (generally above 6000 ft) ceilings and some isolated -SHRA
vcnty KHVR. Expect this system to track south-southeast this
evening, with VFR conditions continuing into tonight. Lastly, a
third system, this one currently over near WA/ID border, will arrive
early Sun morning, with scattered showers and ceilings lowering to
around 3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  39  25  38 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  23  36  24  37 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  28  39  27  37 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  18  34  18  32 /  30  20  40  30
WEY  11  25  11  25 /  50  40  60  40
DLN  20  32  16  30 /  30  20  30  10
HVR  26  35  22  38 /  40  20  30  10
LWT  26  36  24  37 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 222212
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana
this afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain
obscurement to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the
valleys. In the valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40
knots with the rain/snow showers but these conditions should last
no more than an hour. Another weather disturbance will move
southeast through the area later tonight and bring scattered snow
showers with a small risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the
main story will be westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45
kts today which will only drop off slightly overnight. The second
weather disturbance mentioned above will bring an increase in
clouds late this afternoon and evening with scattered snow showers
over northcentral Montana which will last into early Sunday
morning. Expect at least local MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these
snow showers. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  39  25  38 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  23  36  24  37 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  28  39  27  37 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  18  34  18  32 /  30  20  40  30
WEY  11  25  11  25 /  50  40  60  40
DLN  20  32  16  30 /  30  20  30  10
HVR  26  35  22  38 /  40  20  30  10
LWT  26  36  24  37 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 222212
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana
this afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain
obscurement to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the
valleys. In the valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40
knots with the rain/snow showers but these conditions should last
no more than an hour. Another weather disturbance will move
southeast through the area later tonight and bring scattered snow
showers with a small risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the
main story will be westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45
kts today which will only drop off slightly overnight. The second
weather disturbance mentioned above will bring an increase in
clouds late this afternoon and evening with scattered snow showers
over northcentral Montana which will last into early Sunday
morning. Expect at least local MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these
snow showers. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  39  25  38 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  23  36  24  37 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  28  39  27  37 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  18  34  18  32 /  30  20  40  30
WEY  11  25  11  25 /  50  40  60  40
DLN  20  32  16  30 /  30  20  30  10
HVR  26  35  22  38 /  40  20  30  10
LWT  26  36  24  37 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 222057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
157 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Further update at 157 pm to allow High Wind Warning to expire for
Broadwater, Madison, and Gallatin Counties. Gusts to 50 mph are
possible over ridge tops with the passage of a cold front, but most
areas will likely only receive 40 mph gusts.
Coulston

Further update at 120 pm to add Hill/Blaine counties to High Wind
Warning. Gusts reaching 44 kt at Havre as cold front moves into
area. With 50 kt winds just off the surface, will not take much to
mix them down to the surface. Have elected to keep the expiration
time at 10 pm.
Coulston

Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana this
afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain obscurement
to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the valleys. In the
valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40 knots with the
rain/snow showers but these conditions should last no more than an
hour. Another weather disturbance will move southeast through the
area later tonight and bring scattered snow showers with a small
risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the main story will be
westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts today which will
only drop off slightly overnight. The second weather disturbance
mentioned above will bring an increase in clouds late this afternoon
and evening with scattered snow showers over northcentral Montana
which will last into early Sunday morning. Expect at least local
MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these snow showers. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls













000
FXUS65 KTFX 222021
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
120 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Further update at 120 pm to add Hill/Blaine counties to High Wind
Warning. Gusts reaching 44 kt at Havre as cold front moves into
area. With 50 kt winds just off the surface, will not take much to
mix them down to the surface. Have elected to keep the expiration
time at 10 pm.
Coulston

Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana this
afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain obscurement
to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the valleys. In the
valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40 knots with the
rain/snow showers but these conditions should last no more than an
hour. Another weather disturbance will move southeast through the
area later tonight and bring scattered snow showers with a small
risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the main story will be
westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts today which will
only drop off slightly overnight. The second weather disturbance
mentioned above will bring an increase in clouds late this afternoon
and evening with scattered snow showers over northcentral Montana
which will last into early Sunday morning. Expect at least local
MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these snow showers. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 222021
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
120 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Further update at 120 pm to add Hill/Blaine counties to High Wind
Warning. Gusts reaching 44 kt at Havre as cold front moves into
area. With 50 kt winds just off the surface, will not take much to
mix them down to the surface. Have elected to keep the expiration
time at 10 pm.
Coulston

Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana this
afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain obscurement
to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the valleys. In the
valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40 knots with the
rain/snow showers but these conditions should last no more than an
hour. Another weather disturbance will move southeast through the
area later tonight and bring scattered snow showers with a small
risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the main story will be
westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts today which will
only drop off slightly overnight. The second weather disturbance
mentioned above will bring an increase in clouds late this afternoon
and evening with scattered snow showers over northcentral Montana
which will last into early Sunday morning. Expect at least local
MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these snow showers. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 221730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana this
afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain obscurement
to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the valleys. In the
valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40 knots with the
rain/snow showers but these conditions should last no more than an
hour. Another weather disturbance will move southeast through the
area later tonight and bring scattered snow showers with a small
risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the main story will be
westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts today which will
only drop off slightly overnight. The second weather disturbance
mentioned above will bring an increase in clouds late this afternoon
and evening with scattered snow showers over northcentral Montana
which will last into early Sunday morning. Expect at least local
MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these snow showers. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 221730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through southwest Montana this
afternoon and bring snow showers and associated mountain obscurement
to the mountains with rain and snow showers to the valleys. In the
valleys expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusts to 40 knots with the
rain/snow showers but these conditions should last no more than an
hour. Another weather disturbance will move southeast through the
area later tonight and bring scattered snow showers with a small
risk of MVFR conditions. Over the plains the main story will be
westerly winds 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts today which will
only drop off slightly overnight. The second weather disturbance
mentioned above will bring an increase in clouds late this afternoon
and evening with scattered snow showers over northcentral Montana
which will last into early Sunday morning. Expect at least local
MVFR ceilings/visibilities in these snow showers. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 221646
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
946 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Strong westerly flow aloft will continue to strengthen through the
bulk of the TAF period. This will create strong gusty winds at all
TAF sites and will likely lead to mountain wave turbulence aloft.
A cold front will move into the area bringing rain showers and an
occasional reduction in flight categories in or near the showers.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221646
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
946 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Cold front is currently estimated to be along a Shelby-Great
Falls- Bozeman line, as winds have shifted more westerly west of
that line and temperatures have started falling a bit. Am
expecting temperatures to go up a few degrees or remain steady
with the passage of the cold front (especially in areas with sunny
skies). Have therefore increased highs 3 to 5 degrees to reflect
warming of a few degrees from current temperatures. The more
steadily falling temperatures are expected beginning around noon
along the Rocky Mountain Front, then the falling temperature trend
will spread east across the entire area through the afternoon
hours. Winds have also increased further with the frontal passage
(most places gusting into the 40s in MPH), so the widespread High
Wind Warning across North Central/Central Montana appears to be on
track. Am also expecting the main threat for strong gusty winds in
Southwest Montana to be associated with the frontal passage, so
the current expiration time for the High Wind Warning of 2 pm
appears to be on track as well. Snow has decreased a bit along the
Rocky Mountain Front, but short range models indicate that a band
of moderate to heavy snow showers will move through Southwest
Montana early this afternoon. Have therefore increased POPs to
categorical there for the afternoon. With weak instability
associated with the showers, snow rates may approach 1 inch per
hour at times in the mountains, so will monitor accumulations for
potential upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings in the southwest
Mountains. Otherwise, will leave winter highlights as is for now.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Strong westerly flow aloft will continue to strengthen through the
bulk of the TAF period. This will create strong gusty winds at all
TAF sites and will likely lead to mountain wave turbulence aloft.
A cold front will move into the area bringing rain showers and an
occasional reduction in flight categories in or near the showers.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014/

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  43  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  48  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  47  19  35  16 /  90  20  20  30
WEY  35  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  43  19  33  16 /  90  20  20  20
HVR  51  25  35  20 /  40  30  20  20
LWT  50  26  37  23 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 221157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z. Strong westerly flow aloft will continue to strengthen
through the bulk of the TAF period. This will create strong gusty
winds at all TAF sites and will likely lead to mountain wave
turbulence aloft. A cold front will move into the area bringing
rain showers and an occasional reduction in flight categories in
or near the showers. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  41  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  46  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  42  19  35  16 /  80  20  20  30
WEY  31  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  40  19  33  16 /  80  20  20  20
HVR  45  25  35  20 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  47  26  37  23 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this
evening Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 221157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
457 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z. Strong westerly flow aloft will continue to strengthen
through the bulk of the TAF period. This will create strong gusty
winds at all TAF sites and will likely lead to mountain wave
turbulence aloft. A cold front will move into the area bringing
rain showers and an occasional reduction in flight categories in
or near the showers. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  41  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  46  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  42  19  35  16 /  80  20  20  30
WEY  31  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  40  19  33  16 /  80  20  20  20
HVR  45  25  35  20 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  47  26  37  23 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this
evening Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221044
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
344 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail, except with possible MVFR in rain showers.
Very strong and gusty winds will also be associated with and after
frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60 kts are expected over and
along the lee slopes of the Rockies. Zelzer/Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  41  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  46  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  42  19  35  16 /  80  20  20  30
WEY  31  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  40  19  33  16 /  80  20  20  20
HVR  45  25  35  20 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  47  26  37  23 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this
evening Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221044
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
344 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Today will be an active weather day as a
surface cold front sweeps through the state. Southerly winds are
already increasing ahead of the front and causing favored
locations in southwest Montana to gust above high wind criteria.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning for Norris Hill to cover all
of Madison, Gallatin and Broadwater Counties through mid
afternoon. Once the front pushes through the region, winds will
shift to the west which will not be as favorable for high winds.
Have also expanded the High Wind Warning to include much of
central Montana as well. Winds in this area will likely increase
just ahead of and behind the front so this portion will begin
later this morning and continue through later this evening.
Temperatures across central and north central Montana have not
cooled off as much as models suggested over the last few days so
have cut back the coverage of freezing rain significantly for this
morning and confined it to mainly far northern Blaine and Hill
Counties. Have not made any changes to the existing Winter Weather
Advisories as mountain snows continue to appear favorable for much
of today and tonight. Heavier snow on the very highest peaks could
approach Winter Storm Warning criteria but coverage is limited so
opted to keep advisory as is. Cooler and unsettled conditions will
prevail for Sunday and Monday but at this time it does not appear
that any type of highlights will be required. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for some
instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Confidence remains low as models begin to diverge over temperatures
into the Thanksgiving weekend. Confidence is increasing that
temperatures will more likely be near seasonal averages. The GFS
operational model continues to try and push another cold air system
over the area, however the ECMWF and GEM continue to move a large
scale ridge over the Rocky Mountains and effectively shield most of
the area from the colder temperatures. Another interesting model
solution is the 13km GFS, while still experimental it also is
showing the high pressure ridge over the area by Thanksgiving. While
this model is not in the official suite its solution is helping
build confidence in the "warmer" of the two solutions. Have
therefore trended the forecast in that direction, with a stronger
nudge towards the ECMWF solution for temperatures and precipitation
through the long term. Some decent snowfall amounts are expected in
the higher terrain at this time with the system moving into the area
while highlights are not anticipated at this time, the precipitation
occurring leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend could
impact travel plans and should be closely monitored by potentially
affected parties. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail, except with possible MVFR in rain showers.
Very strong and gusty winds will also be associated with and after
frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60 kts are expected over and
along the lee slopes of the Rockies. Zelzer/Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  26  40  25 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  41  23  38  21 /  20  20  10  20
HLN  46  28  40  25 /  50  20  20  30
BZN  42  19  35  16 /  80  20  20  30
WEY  31  12  26   6 / 100  70  50  80
DLN  40  19  33  16 /  80  20  20  20
HVR  45  25  35  20 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  47  26  37  23 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MST this
evening Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST this afternoon Broadwater...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 220540
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Winds at Norris Hill on US-287 are nearing high-wind criteria.
Expect this trend to continue, so added a high-wind warning for this
area in Madison County.

.PREV UPDATE...

Temperatures remain quite warm this evening with a steady southwest
wind and thickening cloud cover. Raised minimum temperatures 2 to
5 degrees over the North-central plains tonight and freshened
hourly temps to match this change with observations. Also reduced
winds to match observations, although still expecting stronger
winds through the day Saturday. Latest forecast guidance continues
to indicate a chance for areas of very light freezing rain through
the early morning hours along the hiline. Confidence for freezing
rain is low, and threat will diminish further if surface temperatures
remain above freezing through early morning. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail, except with possible MVFR in rain showers.
Very strong and gusty winds will also be associated with and after
frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60 kts are expected over and
along the lee slopes of the Rockies. Zelzer/Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 447 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014/

Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific weather system will move into
Montana from the west tonight and through North Central/Southwest
Montana on Saturday. It will initially bring measurable snow to
the mountains tonight and the already strong winds there will
cause areas of blowing snow. Will therefore be continuing the
Winter Weather Advisory for those mountain areas, as well as the
High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front. Southerly winds
through the Norris Hill area may approach High Wind criteria, but
will monitor the situation for now. Have also delayed the
beginning of the High Wind Watch for eastern Glacier County until
Saturday morning. Winds just off the surface appear strong enough
to cause high winds, but the mechanism to bring them down remains
somewhat in doubt. The pressure gradient increases during the day
on Saturday, which looks like the best time, if any, for strong
winds. Will allow subsequent shifts to further analyze it. As the
precipitation moves into the valleys and onto the plains
overnight, there will be a warm layer of air just off the surface
as temperatures fall to near or slightly below freezing at the
surface. This may cause sleet or freezing rain to fall for periods
of time after midnight and into Sunday morning, mainly east of a
Cut Bank to Great Falls line, but also in some of the southwest
valleys. However, the chance for significant precipitation is low
and surface temperatures will likely not rapidly cool (which would
cause ice accumulation on surfaces), so am not expecting
widespread significant impacts and will not be issuing any
advisories for this area at this time. However, the situation will
need to be monitored. Regarding the snow, though, it looks like
the Big Belt and Little Belt mountains will likely receive a few
inches of snow, which would cause travel difficulties over Kings
Hill Pass and through Deep Creek Canyon, so have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas beginning early Saturday morning
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system exits the
area Saturday night into Sunday, winds will decrease somewhat and
the resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures and a continued chance of light snow showers to much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should only fall to a few
degrees below normal and little if any significant snow
accumulation is expected.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the
region with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down
by Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale
ridge further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the
ridge back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly
cooler solution through the rest of the work week. Have trended
toward a warmer and less wet solution. Did not want to buy
completely into the ECMWF but have enough confidence to at least
trend temperatures up a bit and PoPs down. Suk/Emanuel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  44  26  38 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  31  40  23  35 /  20  20  20  10
HLN  31  44  28  38 /  20  50  20  20
BZN  26  41  19  33 /  20  70  20  20
WEY  22  33  10  24 /  60 100  70  40
DLN  31  39  19  31 /  20  70  20  20
HVR  28  43  25  34 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  33  46  26  35 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 2 PM MST Saturday for Norris Hill in Madison
County.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WATCH from 8 AM MST Saturday through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 220354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Temperatures remain quite warm this evening with a steady southwest
wind and thickening cloud cover. Raised minimum temperatures 2 to
5 degrees over the North-central plains tonight and freshened
hourly temps to match this change with observations. Also reduced
winds to match observations, although still expecting stronger
winds through the day Saturday. Latest forecast guidance continues
to indicate a chance for areas of very light freezing rain through
the early morning hours along the hiline. Confidence for freezing
rain is low, and threat will diminish further if surface temperatures
remain above freezing through early morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2343Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail. Very strong and gusty winds will also be
associated with and after frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60
kts are expected over and along the lee slopes of the Rockies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 447 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014/

Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific weather system will move into
Montana from the west tonight and through North Central/Southwest
Montana on Saturday. It will initially bring measurable snow to
the mountains tonight and the already strong winds there will
cause areas of blowing snow. Will therefore be continuing the
Winter Weather Advisory for those mountain areas, as well as the
High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front. Southerly winds
through the Norris Hill area may approach High Wind criteria, but
will monitor the situation for now. Have also delayed the
beginning of the High Wind Watch for eastern Glacier County until
Saturday morning. Winds just off the surface appear strong enough
to cause high winds, but the mechanism to bring them down remains
somewhat in doubt. The pressure gradient increases during the day
on Saturday, which looks like the best time, if any, for strong
winds. Will allow subsequent shifts to further analyze it. As the
precipitation moves into the valleys and onto the plains
overnight, there will be a warm layer of air just off the surface
as temperatures fall to near or slightly below freezing at the
surface. This may cause sleet or freezing rain to fall for periods
of time after midnight and into Sunday morning, mainly east of a
Cut Bank to Great Falls line, but also in some of the southwest
valleys. However, the chance for significant precipitation is low
and surface temperatures will likely not rapidly cool (which would
cause ice accumulation on surfaces), so am not expecting
widespread significant impacts and will not be issuing any
advisories for this area at this time. However, the situation will
need to be monitored. Regarding the snow, though, it looks like
the Big Belt and Little Belt mountains will likely receive a few
inches of snow, which would cause travel difficulties over Kings
Hill Pass and through Deep Creek Canyon, so have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas beginning early Saturday morning
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system exits the
area Saturday night into Sunday, winds will decrease somewhat and
the resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures and a continued chance of light snow showers to much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should only fall to a few
degrees below normal and little if any significant snow
accumulation is expected.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the
region with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down
by Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale
ridge further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the
ridge back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly
cooler solution through the rest of the work week. Have trended
toward a warmer and less wet solution. Did not want to buy
completely into the ECMWF but have enough confidence to at least
trend temperatures up a bit and PoPs down. Suk/Emanuel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  44  26  38 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  31  40  23  35 /  20  20  20  10
HLN  31  44  28  38 /  20  50  20  20
BZN  26  41  19  33 /  20  70  20  20
WEY  22  33  10  24 /  60 100  70  40
DLN  31  39  19  31 /  20  70  20  20
HVR  28  43  25  34 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  33  46  26  35 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WATCH from 8 AM MST Saturday through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 220354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Temperatures remain quite warm this evening with a steady southwest
wind and thickening cloud cover. Raised minimum temperatures 2 to
5 degrees over the North-central plains tonight and freshened
hourly temps to match this change with observations. Also reduced
winds to match observations, although still expecting stronger
winds through the day Saturday. Latest forecast guidance continues
to indicate a chance for areas of very light freezing rain through
the early morning hours along the hiline. Confidence for freezing
rain is low, and threat will diminish further if surface temperatures
remain above freezing through early morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2343Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail. Very strong and gusty winds will also be
associated with and after frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60
kts are expected over and along the lee slopes of the Rockies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 447 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014/

Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific weather system will move into
Montana from the west tonight and through North Central/Southwest
Montana on Saturday. It will initially bring measurable snow to
the mountains tonight and the already strong winds there will
cause areas of blowing snow. Will therefore be continuing the
Winter Weather Advisory for those mountain areas, as well as the
High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front. Southerly winds
through the Norris Hill area may approach High Wind criteria, but
will monitor the situation for now. Have also delayed the
beginning of the High Wind Watch for eastern Glacier County until
Saturday morning. Winds just off the surface appear strong enough
to cause high winds, but the mechanism to bring them down remains
somewhat in doubt. The pressure gradient increases during the day
on Saturday, which looks like the best time, if any, for strong
winds. Will allow subsequent shifts to further analyze it. As the
precipitation moves into the valleys and onto the plains
overnight, there will be a warm layer of air just off the surface
as temperatures fall to near or slightly below freezing at the
surface. This may cause sleet or freezing rain to fall for periods
of time after midnight and into Sunday morning, mainly east of a
Cut Bank to Great Falls line, but also in some of the southwest
valleys. However, the chance for significant precipitation is low
and surface temperatures will likely not rapidly cool (which would
cause ice accumulation on surfaces), so am not expecting
widespread significant impacts and will not be issuing any
advisories for this area at this time. However, the situation will
need to be monitored. Regarding the snow, though, it looks like
the Big Belt and Little Belt mountains will likely receive a few
inches of snow, which would cause travel difficulties over Kings
Hill Pass and through Deep Creek Canyon, so have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas beginning early Saturday morning
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system exits the
area Saturday night into Sunday, winds will decrease somewhat and
the resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures and a continued chance of light snow showers to much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should only fall to a few
degrees below normal and little if any significant snow
accumulation is expected.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the
region with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down
by Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale
ridge further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the
ridge back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly
cooler solution through the rest of the work week. Have trended
toward a warmer and less wet solution. Did not want to buy
completely into the ECMWF but have enough confidence to at least
trend temperatures up a bit and PoPs down. Suk/Emanuel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  44  26  38 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  31  40  23  35 /  20  20  20  10
HLN  31  44  28  38 /  20  50  20  20
BZN  26  41  19  33 /  20  70  20  20
WEY  22  33  10  24 /  60 100  70  40
DLN  31  39  19  31 /  20  70  20  20
HVR  28  43  25  34 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  33  46  26  35 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WATCH from 8 AM MST Saturday through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 212348
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
447 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Wintry mix of weather possible over the plains of North
Central Montana tonight into Saturday morning...
...Strong winds and blowing snow in the mountains overnight into
Saturday evening...

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific weather system will move into
Montana from the west tonight and through North Central/Southwest
Montana on Saturday. It will initially bring measurable snow to
the mountains tonight and the already strong winds there will
cause areas of blowing snow. Will therefore be continuing the
Winter Weather Advisory for those mountain areas, as well as the
High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front. Southerly winds
through the Norris Hill area may approach High Wind criteria, but
will monitor the situation for now. Have also delayed the
beginning of the High Wind Watch for eastern Glacier County until
Saturday morning. Winds just off the surface appear strong enough
to cause high winds, but the mechanism to bring them down remains
somewhat in doubt. The pressure gradient increases during the day
on Saturday, which looks like the best time, if any, for strong
winds. Will allow subsequent shifts to further analyze it. As the
precipitation moves into the valleys and onto the plains
overnight, there will be a warm layer of air just off the surface
as temperatures fall to near or slightly below freezing at the
surface. This may cause sleet or freezing rain to fall for periods
of time after midnight and into Sunday morning, mainly east of a
Cut Bank to Great Falls line, but also in some of the southwest
valleys. However, the chance for significant precipitation is low
and surface temperatures will likely not rapidly cool (which would
cause ice accumulation on surfaces), so am not expecting
widespread significant impacts and will not be issuing any
advisories for this area at this time. However, the situation will
need to be monitored. Regarding the snow, though, it looks like
the Big Belt and Little Belt mountains will likely receive a few
inches of snow, which would cause travel difficulties over Kings
Hill Pass and through Deep Creek Canyon, so have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas beginning early Saturday morning
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system exits the
area Saturday night into Sunday, winds will decrease somewhat and
the resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures and a continued chance of light snow showers to much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should only fall to a few
degrees below normal and little if any significant snow
accumulation is expected.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the
region with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down
by Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale
ridge further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the
ridge back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly
cooler solution through the rest of the work week. Have trended
toward a warmer and less wet solution. Did not want to buy
completely into the ECMWF but have enough confidence to at least
trend temperatures up a bit and PoPs down. Suk/Emanuel

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2343Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail. Very strong and gusty winds will also be
associated with and after frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60
kts are expected over and along the lee slopes of the Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  44  26  38 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  29  40  23  35 /  20  20  20  10
HLN  31  44  28  38 /  20  50  20  20
BZN  25  41  19  33 /  20  70  20  20
WEY  22  33  10  24 /  80 100  70  40
DLN  28  39  19  31 /  30  70  20  20
HVR  27  43  25  34 /  30  30  40  20
LWT  29  46  26  35 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 212348
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
447 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Wintry mix of weather possible over the plains of North
Central Montana tonight into Saturday morning...
...Strong winds and blowing snow in the mountains overnight into
Saturday evening...

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific weather system will move into
Montana from the west tonight and through North Central/Southwest
Montana on Saturday. It will initially bring measurable snow to
the mountains tonight and the already strong winds there will
cause areas of blowing snow. Will therefore be continuing the
Winter Weather Advisory for those mountain areas, as well as the
High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front. Southerly winds
through the Norris Hill area may approach High Wind criteria, but
will monitor the situation for now. Have also delayed the
beginning of the High Wind Watch for eastern Glacier County until
Saturday morning. Winds just off the surface appear strong enough
to cause high winds, but the mechanism to bring them down remains
somewhat in doubt. The pressure gradient increases during the day
on Saturday, which looks like the best time, if any, for strong
winds. Will allow subsequent shifts to further analyze it. As the
precipitation moves into the valleys and onto the plains
overnight, there will be a warm layer of air just off the surface
as temperatures fall to near or slightly below freezing at the
surface. This may cause sleet or freezing rain to fall for periods
of time after midnight and into Sunday morning, mainly east of a
Cut Bank to Great Falls line, but also in some of the southwest
valleys. However, the chance for significant precipitation is low
and surface temperatures will likely not rapidly cool (which would
cause ice accumulation on surfaces), so am not expecting
widespread significant impacts and will not be issuing any
advisories for this area at this time. However, the situation will
need to be monitored. Regarding the snow, though, it looks like
the Big Belt and Little Belt mountains will likely receive a few
inches of snow, which would cause travel difficulties over Kings
Hill Pass and through Deep Creek Canyon, so have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas beginning early Saturday morning
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system exits the
area Saturday night into Sunday, winds will decrease somewhat and
the resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures and a continued chance of light snow showers to much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should only fall to a few
degrees below normal and little if any significant snow
accumulation is expected.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the
region with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down
by Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale
ridge further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the
ridge back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly
cooler solution through the rest of the work week. Have trended
toward a warmer and less wet solution. Did not want to buy
completely into the ECMWF but have enough confidence to at least
trend temperatures up a bit and PoPs down. Suk/Emanuel

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2343Z.
Strong west flow aloft will strengthen further during the night
ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast. A cold front will
cross the Rockies early Saturday morning and spread east during the
day. Snow, mountain obscuration, and IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
at higher elevations later tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail. Very strong and gusty winds will also be
associated with and after frontal passage, and gusts in excess of 60
kts are expected over and along the lee slopes of the Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  44  26  38 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  29  40  23  35 /  20  20  20  10
HLN  31  44  28  38 /  20  50  20  20
BZN  25  41  19  33 /  20  70  20  20
WEY  22  33  10  24 /  80 100  70  40
DLN  28  39  19  31 /  30  70  20  20
HVR  27  43  25  34 /  30  30  40  20
LWT  29  46  26  35 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 212210
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
310 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Wintry mix of weather possible over the plains of North
Central Montana tonight into Saturday morning...
...Strong winds and blowing snow in the mountains overnight into
Saturday evening...

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific weather system will move into
Montana from the west tonight and through North Central/Southwest
Montana on Saturday. It will initially bring measurable snow to
the mountains tonight and the already strong winds there will
cause areas of blowing snow. Will therefore be continuing the
Winter Weather Advisory for those mountain areas, as well as the
High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front. Southerly winds
through the Norris Hill area may approach High Wind criteria, but
will monitor the situation for now. Have also delayed the
beginning of the High Wind Watch for eastern Glacier County until
Saturday morning. Winds just off the surface appear strong enough
to cause high winds, but the mechanism to bring them down remains
somewhat in doubt. The pressure gradient increases during the day
on Saturday, which looks like the best time, if any, for strong
winds. Will allow subsequent shifts to further analyze it. As the
precipitation moves into the valleys and onto the plains
overnight, there will be a warm layer of air just off the surface
as temperatures fall to near or slightly below freezing at the
surface. This may cause sleet or freezing rain to fall for periods
of time after midnight and into Sunday morning, mainly east of a
Cut Bank to Great Falls line, but also in some of the southwest
valleys. However, the chance for significant precipitation is low
and surface temperatures will likely not rapidly cool (which would
cause ice accumulation on surfaces), so am not expecting
widespread significant impacts and will not be issuing any
advisories for this area at this time. However, the situation will
need to be monitored. Regarding the snow, though, it looks like
the Big Belt and Little Belt mountains will likely receive a few
inches of snow, which would cause travel difficulties over Kings
Hill Pass and through Deep Creek Canyon, so have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas beginning early Saturday morning
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system exits the
area Saturday night into Sunday, winds will decrease somewhat and
the resulting northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures and a continued chance of light snow showers to much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should only fall to a few
degrees below normal and little if any significant snow
accumulation is expected.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the
region with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down
by Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale
ridge further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the
ridge back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly
cooler solution through the rest of the work week. Have trended
toward a warmer and less wet solution. Did not want to buy
completely into the ECMWF but have enough confidence to at least
trend temperatures up a bit and PoPs down. Suk/Emanuel

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Mid and high level clouds will increase across the area during
the afternoon and evening as a disturbance aloft approaches
western Montana tonight. Gusty surface winds will continue over
the plains with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  44  26  38 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  29  40  23  35 /  20  20  20  10
HLN  31  44  28  38 /  20  50  20  20
BZN  25  41  19  33 /  20  70  20  20
WEY  22  33  10  24 /  80 100  70  40
DLN  28  39  19  31 /  30  70  20  20
HVR  27  43  25  34 /  30  30  40  20
LWT  29  46  26  35 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday
For US 89 over Kings Hill Pass.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211757
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Only update this morning was to raise highs most places about 3
degrees. Temperatures are generally trending warmer than
previously expected, mainly due to generally clearing skies.
Remainder of forecast is on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Mid and high level clouds will increase across the area during the
afternoon and evening as a disturbance aloft approaches western
Montana tonight. Gusty surface winds will continue over the plains
with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014/

Today through Sunday...Breezy and relatively warm conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area today. Periods of snow
will continue along the Continental Divide with mostly dry
conditions over the plains. Precipitation increases overnight as
an upper level shortwave trough moves inland along the west coast
and Pacific moisture is lifted over the divide. The upper level
wave and an associated surface cold front will sweep through
Montana Saturday afternoon with windy conditions and an increasing
chance for precipitation over the central plains. Top-down weather
tools continue to suggest that areas of light freezing rain are
possible over the plains between midnight and noon on Saturday so
have reintroduced wording into forecast products. At this time, it
does not appear that any freezing rain that develops will be
enough to warrant any kind of winter weather highlights but this
will continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, widespread mountain
snows appear likely across western and southwest Montana from late
tonight into Sunday. At this time it appears that the Winter
Weather Advisory that was issued yesterday will be sufficient for
the expected snow amounts. Finally, have held off on making any
changes to the High Wind Watch for Eastern Glacier County on
Saturday. Winds will certainly increase after surface frontal
passage but I do not currently have enough confidence to upgrade
to a warning nor am I certain that the watch can be dropped. Will
let the day shift have one more chance to evaluate the situation.
mpj

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the region
with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down by
Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale ridge
further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the ridge
back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly cooler
solution through the rest of the work week. One disheartening note
about these solutions is they are about 180 degrees out of phase
from previous model forecasts. This is going hurt any confidence in
an early multiple model run agreement on either the warm or cold
solution. Have not increased temperatures or decreased pops as much
as the blended approaches would suggest due to this lack of
confidence. Instead  the previous forecast was also blended into the
current forecast to increase forecast consistency while in a low
confidence long term forecast. Will hopefully be able to limit this
forced consistency with subsequent model runs as a preferred
solution amongst the various models emerges. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  32  46  26 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  50  29  41  22 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  47  30  47  28 /  10  20  40  20
BZN  44  24  41  19 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  40  21  37   8 /  20  80 100  50
DLN  45  29  44  19 /  10  30  50  20
HVR  47  26  47  25 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  51  29  48  25 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211727
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Only update this morning was to raise highs most places about 3
degrees. Temperatures are generally trending warmer than
previously expected, mainly due to generally clearing skies.
Remainder of forecast is on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Gusty west winds are expected across Central and North
Central Montana through the bulk of the period. Some mid and high
level clouds will continue to move through the area. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014/

Today through Sunday...Breezy and relatively warm conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area today. Periods of snow
will continue along the Continental Divide with mostly dry
conditions over the plains. Precipitation increases overnight as
an upper level shortwave trough moves inland along the west coast
and Pacific moisture is lifted over the divide. The upper level
wave and an associated surface cold front will sweep through
Montana Saturday afternoon with windy conditions and an increasing
chance for precipitation over the central plains. Top-down weather
tools continue to suggest that areas of light freezing rain are
possible over the plains between midnight and noon on Saturday so
have reintroduced wording into forecast products. At this time, it
does not appear that any freezing rain that develops will be
enough to warrant any time of winter weather highlights but this
will continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, widespread mountain
snows appear likely across western and southwest Montana from late
tonight into Sunday. At this time it appears that the Winter
Weather Advisory that was issued yesterday will be sufficient for
the expected snow amounts. Finally, have held off on making any
changes to the High Wind Watch for Eastern Glacier County on
Saturday. Winds will certainly increase after surface frontal
passage but I do not currently have enough confidence to upgrade
to a warning nor am I certain that the watch can be dropped. Will
let the day shift have one more chance to evaluate the situation.
mpj

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the region
with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down by
Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale ridge
further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the ridge
back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly cooler
solution through the rest of the work week. One disheartening note
about these solutions is they are about 180 degrees out of phase
from previous model forecasts. This is going hurt any confidence in
an early multiple model run agreement on either the warm or cold
solution. Have not increased temperatures or decreased pops as much
as the blended approaches would suggest due to this lack of
confidence. Instead  the previous forecast was also blended into the
current forecast to increase forecast consistency while in a low
confidence long term forecast. Will hopefully be able to limit this
forced consistency with subsequent model runs as a preferred
solution amongst the various models emerges. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  32  46  26 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  50  29  41  22 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  47  30  47  28 /  10  20  40  20
BZN  44  24  41  19 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  40  21  37   8 /  20  80 100  50
DLN  45  29  44  19 /  10  30  50  20
HVR  47  26  47  25 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  51  29  48  25 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211727
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Only update this morning was to raise highs most places about 3
degrees. Temperatures are generally trending warmer than
previously expected, mainly due to generally clearing skies.
Remainder of forecast is on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Gusty west winds are expected across Central and North
Central Montana through the bulk of the period. Some mid and high
level clouds will continue to move through the area. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014/

Today through Sunday...Breezy and relatively warm conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area today. Periods of snow
will continue along the Continental Divide with mostly dry
conditions over the plains. Precipitation increases overnight as
an upper level shortwave trough moves inland along the west coast
and Pacific moisture is lifted over the divide. The upper level
wave and an associated surface cold front will sweep through
Montana Saturday afternoon with windy conditions and an increasing
chance for precipitation over the central plains. Top-down weather
tools continue to suggest that areas of light freezing rain are
possible over the plains between midnight and noon on Saturday so
have reintroduced wording into forecast products. At this time, it
does not appear that any freezing rain that develops will be
enough to warrant any time of winter weather highlights but this
will continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, widespread mountain
snows appear likely across western and southwest Montana from late
tonight into Sunday. At this time it appears that the Winter
Weather Advisory that was issued yesterday will be sufficient for
the expected snow amounts. Finally, have held off on making any
changes to the High Wind Watch for Eastern Glacier County on
Saturday. Winds will certainly increase after surface frontal
passage but I do not currently have enough confidence to upgrade
to a warning nor am I certain that the watch can be dropped. Will
let the day shift have one more chance to evaluate the situation.
mpj

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the region
with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down by
Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale ridge
further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the ridge
back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly cooler
solution through the rest of the work week. One disheartening note
about these solutions is they are about 180 degrees out of phase
from previous model forecasts. This is going hurt any confidence in
an early multiple model run agreement on either the warm or cold
solution. Have not increased temperatures or decreased pops as much
as the blended approaches would suggest due to this lack of
confidence. Instead  the previous forecast was also blended into the
current forecast to increase forecast consistency while in a low
confidence long term forecast. Will hopefully be able to limit this
forced consistency with subsequent model runs as a preferred
solution amongst the various models emerges. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  32  46  26 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  50  29  41  22 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  47  30  47  28 /  10  20  40  20
BZN  44  24  41  19 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  40  21  37   8 /  20  80 100  50
DLN  45  29  44  19 /  10  30  50  20
HVR  47  26  47  25 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  51  29  48  25 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
455 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Breezy and relatively warm conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area today. Periods of snow
will continue along the Continental Divide with mostly dry
conditions over the plains. Precipitation increases overnight as
an upper level shortwave trough moves inland along the west coast
and Pacific moisture is lifted over the divide. The upper level
wave and an associated surface cold front will sweep through
Montana Saturday afternoon with windy conditions and an increasing
chance for precipitation over the central plains. Top-down weather
tools continue to suggest that areas of light freezing rain are
possible over the plains between midnight and noon on Saturday so
have reintroduced wording into forecast products. At this time, it
does not appear that any freezing rain that develops will be
enough to warrant any time of winter weather highlights but this
will continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, widespread mountain
snows appear likely across western and southwest Montana from late
tonight into Sunday. At this time it appears that the Winter
Weather Advisory that was issued yesterday will be sufficient for
the expected snow amounts. Finally, have held off on making any
changes to the High Wind Watch for Eastern Glacier County on
Saturday. Winds will certainly increase after surface frontal
passage but I do not currently have enough confidence to upgrade
to a warning nor am I certain that the watch can be dropped. Will
let the day shift have one more chance to evaluate the situation.
mpj

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the region
with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down by
Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale ridge
further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the ridge
back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly cooler
solution through the rest of the work week. One disheartening note
about these solutions is they are about 180 degrees out of phase
from previous model forecasts. This is going hurt any confidence in
an early multiple model run agreement on either the warm or cold
solution. Have not increased temperatures or decreased pops as much
as the blended approaches would suggest due to this lack of
confidence. Instead  the previous forecast was also blended into the
current forecast to increase forecast consistency while in a low
confidence long term forecast. Will hopefully be able to limit this
forced consistency with subsequent model runs as a preferred
solution amongst the various models emerges. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Gusty west winds are expected across Central
and North Central Montana through the bulk of the period. Some mid
and high level clouds will continue to move through the area. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  32  46  26 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  44  29  41  22 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  46  30  47  28 /  10  20  40  20
BZN  42  24  41  19 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  32  21  37   8 /  20  80 100  50
DLN  43  29  44  19 /  10  30  50  20
HVR  46  26  47  25 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  49  29  48  25 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
402 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Breezy and relatively warm conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area today. Periods of snow
will continue along the Continental Divide with mostly dry
conditions over the plains. Precipitation increases overnight as
an upper level shortwave trough moves inland along the west coast
and Pacific moisture is lifted over the divide. The upper level
wave and an associated surface cold front will sweep through
Montana Saturday afternoon with windy conditions and an increasing
chance for precipitation over the central plains. Top-down weather
tools continue to suggest that areas of light freezing rain are
possible over the plains between midnight and noon on Saturday so
have reintroduced wording into forecast products. At this time, it
does not appear that any freezing rain that develops will be
enough to warrant any time of winter weather highlights but this
will continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, widespread mountain
snows appear likely across western and southwest Montana from late
tonight into Sunday. At this time it appears that the Winter
Weather Advisory that was issued yesterday will be sufficient for
the expected snow amounts. Finally, have held off on making any
changes to the High Wind Watch for Eastern Glacier County on
Saturday. Winds will certainly increase after surface frontal
passage but I do not currently have enough confidence to upgrade
to a warning nor am I certain that the watch can be dropped. Will
let the day shift have one more chance to evaluate the situation.
mpj

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the region
with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down by
Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale ridge
further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the ridge
back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly cooler
solution through the rest of the work week. One disheartening note
about these solutions is they are about 180 degrees out of phase
from previous model forecasts. This is going hurt any confidence in
an early multiple model run agreement on either the warm or cold
solution. Have not increased temperatures or decreased pops as much
as the blended approaches would suggest due to this lack of
confidence. Instead  the previous forecast was also blended into the
current forecast to increase forecast consistency while in a low
confidence long term forecast. Will hopefully be able to limit this
forced consistency with subsequent model runs as a preferred
solution amongst the various models emerges. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain brisk through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains including KCTB. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  32  46  26 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  44  29  41  22 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  46  30  47  28 /  10  20  40  20
BZN  42  24  41  19 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  32  21  37   8 /  20  80 100  50
DLN  43  29  44  19 /  10  30  50  20
HVR  46  26  47  25 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  49  29  48  25 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
402 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Breezy and relatively warm conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area today. Periods of snow
will continue along the Continental Divide with mostly dry
conditions over the plains. Precipitation increases overnight as
an upper level shortwave trough moves inland along the west coast
and Pacific moisture is lifted over the divide. The upper level
wave and an associated surface cold front will sweep through
Montana Saturday afternoon with windy conditions and an increasing
chance for precipitation over the central plains. Top-down weather
tools continue to suggest that areas of light freezing rain are
possible over the plains between midnight and noon on Saturday so
have reintroduced wording into forecast products. At this time, it
does not appear that any freezing rain that develops will be
enough to warrant any time of winter weather highlights but this
will continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, widespread mountain
snows appear likely across western and southwest Montana from late
tonight into Sunday. At this time it appears that the Winter
Weather Advisory that was issued yesterday will be sufficient for
the expected snow amounts. Finally, have held off on making any
changes to the High Wind Watch for Eastern Glacier County on
Saturday. Winds will certainly increase after surface frontal
passage but I do not currently have enough confidence to upgrade
to a warning nor am I certain that the watch can be dropped. Will
let the day shift have one more chance to evaluate the situation.
mpj

Sunday night through Friday...Unsettled weather continues into the
long term forecast as a shortwave trough moves through the region
with northwesterly flow aloft. This should allow for cool
temperatures and snow showers mainly over the higher terrain to
continue into the work week. Model agreement begins to break down by
Tuesday morning when the GEM and ECMWF push a large scale ridge
further into the Rocky Mountains, the GFS however keeps the ridge
back off the Pacific coast, and suggests a significantly cooler
solution through the rest of the work week. One disheartening note
about these solutions is they are about 180 degrees out of phase
from previous model forecasts. This is going hurt any confidence in
an early multiple model run agreement on either the warm or cold
solution. Have not increased temperatures or decreased pops as much
as the blended approaches would suggest due to this lack of
confidence. Instead  the previous forecast was also blended into the
current forecast to increase forecast consistency while in a low
confidence long term forecast. Will hopefully be able to limit this
forced consistency with subsequent model runs as a preferred
solution amongst the various models emerges. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain brisk through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains including KCTB. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  32  46  26 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  44  29  41  22 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  46  30  47  28 /  10  20  40  20
BZN  42  24  41  19 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  32  21  37   8 /  20  80 100  50
DLN  43  29  44  19 /  10  30  50  20
HVR  46  26  47  25 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  49  29  48  25 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210513
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes needed for the evening update. Removed
areas of slight-chance POPS overnight except over the western
mountains. Brisk southwest winds over the north-central plains
will result in a slow rate of cooling toward morning minimum
temps. Patchy fog is possible in portions of Hill and Blaine
counties, but not with enough confidence to include in weather
elements. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain brisk through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains including KCTB. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 425 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  10  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /   0  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 210513
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes needed for the evening update. Removed
areas of slight-chance POPS overnight except over the western
mountains. Brisk southwest winds over the north-central plains
will result in a slow rate of cooling toward morning minimum
temps. Patchy fog is possible in portions of Hill and Blaine
counties, but not with enough confidence to include in weather
elements. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain brisk through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains including KCTB. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 425 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  10  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /   0  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 210319
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
819 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes needed for the evening update. Removed
areas of slight-chance POPS overnight except over the western
mountains. Brisk southwest winds over the north-central plains
will result in a slow rate of cooling toward morning minimum
temps. Patchy fog is possible in portions of Hill and Blaine
counties, but not with enough confidence to include in weather
elements. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain strong through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 425 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  10  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /   0  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210319
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
819 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes needed for the evening update. Removed
areas of slight-chance POPS overnight except over the western
mountains. Brisk southwest winds over the north-central plains
will result in a slow rate of cooling toward morning minimum
temps. Patchy fog is possible in portions of Hill and Blaine
counties, but not with enough confidence to include in weather
elements. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain strong through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 425 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  10  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /   0  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 202324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain strong through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  20  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /  10  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 202324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
Variable mid- and high-level clouds will pass through north-central
and Southwest Montana. Southwest to west surface winds will increase
this evening and remain strong through the period. The strongest
winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  20  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /  10  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 202145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Areas of lingering patchy fog will dissipate by 20z. Mid and high
level clouds will increase through the period. Southwest to west
surface winds will increase and become gusty after 21z. The
strongest winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over
adjacent plains. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  20  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /  10  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 202145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...A weak shortwave will cross the Rockies and
Central Montana late tonight and Friday while, to the west, a strong
upper level jet will move over the West Coast. A high pressure ridge
over Central Montana will be flattened by a series of shortwaves
ahead of a low pressure trof in the Eastern Pacific. These
disturbances will maintain a lee trof along the slopes of the
Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient. Winds will remain
brisk through the period across the Rockies and adjacent plains and
become very strong Friday night and Saturday. Winds across Southwest
Montana will not be nearly as strong as those over the plains
although, as the upper level winds strengthen ahead of the
approaching trof, strong winds will also spread across the area
Friday night and Saturday. The trof will be over the Pacific
Northwest by early Saturday morning and good lift will develop ahead
of it across the Rockies. Snow over the Rockies will increase as the
low pressure trof approaches and a winter weather advisory for snow
and blowing snow will be issued beginning Friday night. The upper
level trof will be over the Rockies by late Saturday although the
cold air aloft will still be west of the Rockies. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid level
trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking east along
and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday night. Cold
advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and slightly
unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow showers
across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the low-mid
level circulation center passing by to the north will bring a chance
of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW flow aloft
continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier conditions
likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow aloft buckles in
response to shortwave energy coming onshore, allowing the upper
level jet to lift north into the northern Rockies for increasing
chances for precipitation. This is where models begin to diverge
significantly as the ECMWF model brings in a stronger shortwave
trough from the NW, carving out a trough over the interior west with
a much colder Canadian airmass moving into the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. However the GFS model continues to build upper
level ridging inland Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a shorter
lived precipitation event with warmer temperatures overall.
Confidence remains low at this point with regard to cold air
intrusion next week, but initial push of moisture/precipitation
Tuesday appears more likely regardless of model solution and have
increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Areas of lingering patchy fog will dissipate by 20z. Mid and high
level clouds will increase through the period. Southwest to west
surface winds will increase and become gusty after 21z. The
strongest winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over
adjacent plains. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  44  32  44 /  10  10  20  20
CTB  29  42  29  42 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  26  42  29  43 /  10  10  20  50
BZN  18  39  23  42 /  20  10  20  60
WEY  15  31  21  31 /  20  20  50 100
DLN  22  39  27  39 /  10  10  30  60
HVR  25  42  25  42 /  10  10  10  40
LWT  28  45  29  46 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight Friday Night to 5 AM MST
Sunday Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Madison...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today...A quick update was made earlier this morning to reduce the
area of the fog advisory. Low level west flow will continue to push
east and most visibilities will be unrestricted again later this
morning. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Areas of lingering patchy fog will dissipate by 20z. Mid and high
level clouds will increase through the period. Southwest to west
surface winds will increase and become gusty after 21z. The
strongest winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over
adjacent plains. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...Dense freezing fog does not appear to be
quite as widespread as it was last evening but satellite imagery
continues to show fog and low clouds across much of the area. Will
therefore continue the Freezing Fog Advisory through mid-morning.
A surface low pressure trough through central Montana has
oscillated back and forth on a scale of tens of miles. This has
caused surface winds at a few locations, including Great Falls, to
shift from westerly to light and variable or easterly with
temperatures oscillating from the lower teens to the lower 20s.
This feature will shift eastward through the day bringing westerly
winds to the entire forecast area and pushing the colder air and
areas of fog into eastern portions of the state. As a result,
temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid 30s to mid 40s
for all but extreme northern Blaine and Hill Counties. Models also
continue to show that a strong surface pressure gradient will set
up along the Rocky Mountain Front causing strong and gusty winds
to develop. This gradient may weaken at times but remains
relatively intact until a surface cold front sweeps through the
region on Saturday. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front through Saturday evening and models suggest that
portions of the plains may need to be added to the warning when
the front sweeps through on Saturday. For now will hold off on
issuing a watch for the plains but will continue to monitor the
models to see how things develop. In addition to strong winds,
this front will bring precipitation to the central plains on
Saturday. With freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning there
is a risk for freezing rain across eastern portions of central
Montana as well. mpj

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid
level trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking
east along and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday
night. Cold advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and
slightly unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow
showers across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the
low-mid level circulation center passing by to the north will
bring a chance of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW
flow aloft continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier
conditions likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow
aloft buckles in response to shortwave energy coming onshore,
allowing the upper level jet to lift north into the northern
Rockies for increasing chances for precipitation. This is where
models begin to diverge significantly as the ECMWF model brings in
a stronger shortwave trough from the NW, carving out a trough over
the interior west with a much colder Canadian airmass moving into
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. However the GFS model
continues to build upper level ridging inland Wednesday and
Thursday, resulting in a shorter lived precipitation event with
warmer temperatures overall. Confidence remains low at this point
with regard to cold air intrusion next week, but initial push of
moisture/precipitation Tuesday appears more likely regardless of
model solution and have increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  32  43  31 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  40  28  41  28 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  41  27  41  27 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  39  18  37  21 /  10  20  10  10
WEY  31  13  29  18 /  20  30  30  50
DLN  39  20  37  25 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  38  23  41  24 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  46  28  45  28 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill...Liberty.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today...A quick update was made earlier this morning to reduce the
area of the fog advisory. Low level west flow will continue to push
east and most visibilities will be unrestricted again later this
morning. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Areas of lingering patchy fog will dissipate by 20z. Mid and high
level clouds will increase through the period. Southwest to west
surface winds will increase and become gusty after 21z. The
strongest winds will occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over
adjacent plains. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...Dense freezing fog does not appear to be
quite as widespread as it was last evening but satellite imagery
continues to show fog and low clouds across much of the area. Will
therefore continue the Freezing Fog Advisory through mid-morning.
A surface low pressure trough through central Montana has
oscillated back and forth on a scale of tens of miles. This has
caused surface winds at a few locations, including Great Falls, to
shift from westerly to light and variable or easterly with
temperatures oscillating from the lower teens to the lower 20s.
This feature will shift eastward through the day bringing westerly
winds to the entire forecast area and pushing the colder air and
areas of fog into eastern portions of the state. As a result,
temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid 30s to mid 40s
for all but extreme northern Blaine and Hill Counties. Models also
continue to show that a strong surface pressure gradient will set
up along the Rocky Mountain Front causing strong and gusty winds
to develop. This gradient may weaken at times but remains
relatively intact until a surface cold front sweeps through the
region on Saturday. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front through Saturday evening and models suggest that
portions of the plains may need to be added to the warning when
the front sweeps through on Saturday. For now will hold off on
issuing a watch for the plains but will continue to monitor the
models to see how things develop. In addition to strong winds,
this front will bring precipitation to the central plains on
Saturday. With freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning there
is a risk for freezing rain across eastern portions of central
Montana as well. mpj

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid
level trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking
east along and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday
night. Cold advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and
slightly unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow
showers across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the
low-mid level circulation center passing by to the north will
bring a chance of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW
flow aloft continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier
conditions likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow
aloft buckles in response to shortwave energy coming onshore,
allowing the upper level jet to lift north into the northern
Rockies for increasing chances for precipitation. This is where
models begin to diverge significantly as the ECMWF model brings in
a stronger shortwave trough from the NW, carving out a trough over
the interior west with a much colder Canadian airmass moving into
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. However the GFS model
continues to build upper level ridging inland Wednesday and
Thursday, resulting in a shorter lived precipitation event with
warmer temperatures overall. Confidence remains low at this point
with regard to cold air intrusion next week, but initial push of
moisture/precipitation Tuesday appears more likely regardless of
model solution and have increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  32  43  31 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  40  28  41  28 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  41  27  41  27 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  39  18  37  21 /  10  20  10  10
WEY  31  13  29  18 /  20  30  30  50
DLN  39  20  37  25 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  38  23  41  24 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  46  28  45  28 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill...Liberty.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 201625
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...A quick update was made earlier his morning to reduce the
area of the fog advisory. Low level west flow will continue to push
east and most visibilities will be unrestricted again later this
morning. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.
Surface high pressure over eastern MT will move off into the Dakotas
today as a weak low pressure trough develops across the state in
response to weak weather disturbances moving into the region in a
westerly flow aloft. Areas of fog will persist into the morning at
the KCTB and KHVR terminals where IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected
through about 15Z before improvement begins. Patchy fog is also
possible near other terminals but threat is diminishing as light
south-southwest winds have already developed over central MT.
Surface winds will increase today in response to the developing low
pressure trough with strongest winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and
adjacent plains. Mid-high level cloud-cover also increases with
incoming moisture from the west, however little or no precipitation
is expected across the area through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...Dense freezing fog does not appear to be
quite as widespread as it was last evening but satellite imagery
continues to show fog and low clouds across much of the area. Will
therefore continue the Freezing Fog Advisory through mid-morning.
A surface low pressure trough through central Montana has
oscillated back and forth on a scale of tens of miles. This has
caused surface winds at a few locations, including Great Falls, to
shift from westerly to light and variable or easterly with
temperatures oscillating from the lower teens to the lower 20s.
This feature will shift eastward through the day bringing westerly
winds to the entire forecast area and pushing the colder air and
areas of fog into eastern portions of the state. As a result,
temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid 30s to mid 40s
for all but extreme northern Blaine and Hill Counties. Models also
continue to show that a strong surface pressure gradient will set
up along the Rocky Mountain Front causing strong and gusty winds
to develop. This gradient may weaken at times but remains
relatively intact until a surface cold front sweeps through the
region on Saturday. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front through Saturday evening and models suggest that
portions of the plains may need to be added to the warning when
the front sweeps through on Saturday. For now will hold off on
issuing a watch for the plains but will continue to monitor the
models to see how things develop. In addition to strong winds,
this front will bring precipitation to the central plains on
Saturday. With freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning there
is a risk for freezing rain across eastern portions of central
Montana as well. mpj

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid
level trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking
east along and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday
night. Cold advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and
slightly unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow
showers across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the
low-mid level circulation center passing by to the north will
bring a chance of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW
flow aloft continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier
conditions likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow
aloft buckles in response to shortwave energy coming onshore,
allowing the upper level jet to lift north into the northern
Rockies for increasing chances for precipitation. This is where
models begin to diverge significantly as the ECMWF model brings in
a stronger shortwave trough from the NW, carving out a trough over
the interior west with a much colder Canadian airmass moving into
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. However the GFS model
continues to build upper level ridging inland Wednesday and
Thursday, resulting in a shorter lived precipitation event with
warmer temperatures overall. Confidence remains low at this point
with regard to cold air intrusion next week, but initial push of
moisture/precipitation Tuesday appears more likely regardless of
model solution and have increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  32  43  31 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  40  28  41  28 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  41  27  41  27 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  39  18  37  21 /  10  20  10  10
WEY  31  13  29  18 /  20  30  30  50
DLN  39  20  37  25 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  38  23  41  24 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  46  28  45  28 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill...Liberty.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 201625
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...A quick update was made earlier his morning to reduce the
area of the fog advisory. Low level west flow will continue to push
east and most visibilities will be unrestricted again later this
morning. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.
Surface high pressure over eastern MT will move off into the Dakotas
today as a weak low pressure trough develops across the state in
response to weak weather disturbances moving into the region in a
westerly flow aloft. Areas of fog will persist into the morning at
the KCTB and KHVR terminals where IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected
through about 15Z before improvement begins. Patchy fog is also
possible near other terminals but threat is diminishing as light
south-southwest winds have already developed over central MT.
Surface winds will increase today in response to the developing low
pressure trough with strongest winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and
adjacent plains. Mid-high level cloud-cover also increases with
incoming moisture from the west, however little or no precipitation
is expected across the area through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2014/

Today through Saturday...Dense freezing fog does not appear to be
quite as widespread as it was last evening but satellite imagery
continues to show fog and low clouds across much of the area. Will
therefore continue the Freezing Fog Advisory through mid-morning.
A surface low pressure trough through central Montana has
oscillated back and forth on a scale of tens of miles. This has
caused surface winds at a few locations, including Great Falls, to
shift from westerly to light and variable or easterly with
temperatures oscillating from the lower teens to the lower 20s.
This feature will shift eastward through the day bringing westerly
winds to the entire forecast area and pushing the colder air and
areas of fog into eastern portions of the state. As a result,
temperatures are expected to rebound into the mid 30s to mid 40s
for all but extreme northern Blaine and Hill Counties. Models also
continue to show that a strong surface pressure gradient will set
up along the Rocky Mountain Front causing strong and gusty winds
to develop. This gradient may weaken at times but remains
relatively intact until a surface cold front sweeps through the
region on Saturday. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front through Saturday evening and models suggest that
portions of the plains may need to be added to the warning when
the front sweeps through on Saturday. For now will hold off on
issuing a watch for the plains but will continue to monitor the
models to see how things develop. In addition to strong winds,
this front will bring precipitation to the central plains on
Saturday. With freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning there
is a risk for freezing rain across eastern portions of central
Montana as well. mpj

Saturday night through Thanksgiving...Period begins with a mid
level trough moving across MT and surface low pressure tracking
east along and just north of the MT/Canadian border Saturday
night. Cold advection, favorable upper level jet dynamics and
slightly unstable/cyclonic flow aloft will keep a chance for snow
showers across Central/SW MT while moisture wrapping around the
low-mid level circulation center passing by to the north will
bring a chance of snow showers to portions of North Central MT. NW
flow aloft continues Sunday into next week with a period of drier
conditions likely late Sunday through Monday. By Tuesday, flow
aloft buckles in response to shortwave energy coming onshore,
allowing the upper level jet to lift north into the northern
Rockies for increasing chances for precipitation. This is where
models begin to diverge significantly as the ECMWF model brings in
a stronger shortwave trough from the NW, carving out a trough over
the interior west with a much colder Canadian airmass moving into
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. However the GFS model
continues to build upper level ridging inland Wednesday and
Thursday, resulting in a shorter lived precipitation event with
warmer temperatures overall. Confidence remains low at this point
with regard to cold air intrusion next week, but initial push of
moisture/precipitation Tuesday appears more likely regardless of
model solution and have increased pops that period. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  32  43  31 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  40  28  41  28 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  41  27  41  27 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  39  18  37  21 /  10  20  10  10
WEY  31  13  29  18 /  20  30  30  50
DLN  39  20  37  25 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  38  23  41  24 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  46  28  45  28 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Blaine...
Chouteau...Hill...Liberty.

&&

$$

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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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