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000
FXUS65 KTFX 240451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing the strongest
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls













000
FXUS65 KTFX 240451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing the strongest
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls













000
FXUS65 KTFX 240320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing stronger
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 240320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing stronger
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 232350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Put out an early update to increase cloud cover and
bring isolated/scattered showers a bit further out over the
plains for this afternoon and evening. This change affects the Cut
Bank to Havre region more than anywhere else. Latest satellite and
radar imagery as well as mid afternoon model updates support this
change. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing stronger
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  20  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 232253
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Put out an early update to increase cloud cover and
bring isolated/scattered showers a bit further out over the
plains for this afternoon and evening. This change affects the Cut
Bank to Havre region more than anywhere else. Latest satellite and
radar imagery as well as mid afternoon model updates support this
change. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  20  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 232057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  10  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  20  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 231742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 231634
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1033 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Approaching low pressure trough will displace the high pressure
ridge. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most areas for the
next 24 hours with mid-level BKN to OVC skies. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains extending into central Montana and continuing
through the period. Rain showers will develop over the west and
southwest mountains decreasing some after 06z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231634
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1033 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Approaching low pressure trough will displace the high pressure
ridge. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most areas for the
next 24 hours with mid-level BKN to OVC skies. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains extending into central Montana and continuing
through the period. Rain showers will develop over the west and
southwest mountains decreasing some after 06z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231159
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Approaching low pressure trough will displace the high pressure
ridge. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most areas for the
next 24 hours with mid-level BKN to OVC skies. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains extending into central Montana and continuing
through the period. Rain showers will develop over the west and
southwest mountains decreasing some after 06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  36 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  64  43  60  40 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  39  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  50  26 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  41  58  39 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  41  62  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 231000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds
will decrease slightly overnight...but are expected to restrengthen
by mid morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent Plains and
continue to remain strong for the remainder of the TAF period.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the
period. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  36 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  64  43  60  40 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  39  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  50  26 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  41  58  39 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  41  62  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds
will decrease slightly overnight...but are expected to restrengthen
by mid morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent Plains and
continue to remain strong for the remainder of the TAF period.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the
period. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  36 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  64  43  60  40 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  39  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  50  26 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  41  58  39 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  41  62  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...A deep upper level trough is over the Gulf of Alaska
with a strong jet pushing inland along the Pacific Northwest coast
tonight. This system is feeding abundant mid and upper level
moisture into the Northern Rockies for increasing clouds across my
forecast area overnight. Have updated forecast to increase cloud
cover based upon latest satellite observations and model trends
but the remainder of the forecast is in good shape and no
additional changes were made. The High Wind Watch for the Rocky
Mountain Front was also left unchanged. However, in my opinion, 00Z
NAM model depiction of mountain top winds and surface pressure
gradients do not appear very favorable for a high wind event
Thursday night. In many respects I would expect stronger winds to
occur late tonight and Thursday morning but even these winds
appear only borderline at this time. Will pass my concerns on to
the midnight shift since there will be several more models that
will come in overnight that may help clarify the situation. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds
will decrease slightly overnight...but are expected to restrengthen
by mid morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent Plains and
continue to remain strong for the remainder of the TAF period.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the
period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014/
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Plenty of clear skies across
the region this aftn as a weak high pressure ridge traverses the
state.  But latest visible satellite imagery already shows leading
edge of high cloud cover associated with a shortwave trof moving
through WA/OR reaching the northwest corner of MT.  This shortwave
is the first of several that will eject from a very deep and cold
closed low pressure system anchored in the Gulf of Alaska over the
next several days.  Though water vapor satellite imagery shows a
good-sized moisture plume accompanying this wave, it also indicates
a distinct split in the plume with much of the moisture heading into
southern BC/Alberta and the secondary swath heading across southern
Idaho.  That leaves our region in the low-moisture area between the
swaths, which is very well depicted in current forecast model
solutions that indicate widespread increasing clouds tonight and
tomorrow but any notable precipitation stays along the Continental
Divide, with some spotty showers over southwest MT.  As the trof
axis goes by Thurs aftn, mid- and upper-level winds increase
strongly over western portions of Glacier/Teton/Pondera counties and
continue into Fri morning.  Although the situation is overall
marginal for warning-criteria winds (58 mph or more), consistent
model solutions over past several runs gave us enough confidence to
post a high wind watch for the northern/southern Rocky Mtn Front
areas for Thurs/6pm to Fri/noon.  Other than the strong winds,
Friday`s weather still looking quiet as westerly downslope flow
should keep the foothills and plains precipitation-free.  High
temperatures remaining in the low-mid 60s on Thurs/Fri. Waranauskas

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  65  46  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  41  63  41  58 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  40  66  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  33  65  39  61 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  24  52  31  51 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  37  63  42  59 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  69  43  63 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  40  67  43  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 230450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...A deep upper level trough is over the Gulf of Alaska
with a strong jet pushing inland along the Pacific Northwest coast
tonight. This system is feeding abundant mid and upper level
moisture into the Northern Rockies for increasing clouds across my
forecast area overnight. Have updated forecast to increase cloud
cover based upon latest satellite observations and model trends
but the remainder of the forecast is in good shape and no
additional changes were made. The High Wind Watch for the Rocky
Mountain Front was also left unchanged. However, in my opinion, 00Z
NAM model depiction of mountain top winds and surface pressure
gradients do not appear very favorable for a high wind event
Thursday night. In many respects I would expect stronger winds to
occur late tonight and Thursday morning but even these winds
appear only borderline at this time. Will pass my concerns on to
the midnight shift since there will be several more models that
will come in overnight that may help clarify the situation. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds
will decrease slightly overnight...but are expected to restrengthen
by mid morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent Plains and
continue to remain strong for the remainder of the TAF period.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the
period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014/
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Plenty of clear skies across
the region this aftn as a weak high pressure ridge traverses the
state.  But latest visible satellite imagery already shows leading
edge of high cloud cover associated with a shortwave trof moving
through WA/OR reaching the northwest corner of MT.  This shortwave
is the first of several that will eject from a very deep and cold
closed low pressure system anchored in the Gulf of Alaska over the
next several days.  Though water vapor satellite imagery shows a
good-sized moisture plume accompanying this wave, it also indicates
a distinct split in the plume with much of the moisture heading into
southern BC/Alberta and the secondary swath heading across southern
Idaho.  That leaves our region in the low-moisture area between the
swaths, which is very well depicted in current forecast model
solutions that indicate widespread increasing clouds tonight and
tomorrow but any notable precipitation stays along the Continental
Divide, with some spotty showers over southwest MT.  As the trof
axis goes by Thurs aftn, mid- and upper-level winds increase
strongly over western portions of Glacier/Teton/Pondera counties and
continue into Fri morning.  Although the situation is overall
marginal for warning-criteria winds (58 mph or more), consistent
model solutions over past several runs gave us enough confidence to
post a high wind watch for the northern/southern Rocky Mtn Front
areas for Thurs/6pm to Fri/noon.  Other than the strong winds,
Friday`s weather still looking quiet as westerly downslope flow
should keep the foothills and plains precipitation-free.  High
temperatures remaining in the low-mid 60s on Thurs/Fri. Waranauskas

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  65  46  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  41  63  41  58 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  40  66  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  33  65  39  61 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  24  52  31  51 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  37  63  42  59 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  69  43  63 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  40  67  43  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 230317
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
917 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...A deep upper level trough is over the Gulf of Alaska
with a strong jet pushing inland along the Pacific Northwest coast
tonight. This system is feeding abundant mid and upper level
moisture into the Northern Rockies for increasing clouds across my
forecast area overnight. Have updated forecast to increase cloud
cover based upon latest satellite observations and model trends
but the remainder of the forecast is in good shape and no
additional changes were made. The High Wind Watch for the Rocky
Mountain Front was also left unchanged. However, in my opinion, 00Z
NAM model depiction of mountain top winds and surface pressure
gradients do not appear very favorable for a high wind event
Thursday night. In many respects I would expect stronger winds to
occur late tonight and Thursday morning but even these winds
appear only borderline at this time. Will pass my concerns on to
the midnight shift since there will be several more models that
will come in overnight that may help clarify the situation. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Mostly
clear skies but windy conditions are expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent Plains for the next 24 hours. Expect
increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the period.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014/
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Plenty of clear skies across
the region this aftn as a weak high pressure ridge traverses the
state.  But latest visible satellite imagery already shows leading
edge of high cloud cover associated with a shortwave trof moving
through WA/OR reaching the northwest corner of MT.  This shortwave
is the first of several that will eject from a very deep and cold
closed low pressure system anchored in the Gulf of Alaska over the
next several days.  Though water vapor satellite imagery shows a
good-sized moisture plume accompanying this wave, it also indicates
a distinct split in the plume with much of the moisture heading into
southern BC/Alberta and the secondary swath heading across southern
Idaho.  That leaves our region in the low-moisture area between the
swaths, which is very well depicted in current forecast model
solutions that indicate widespread increasing clouds tonight and
tomorrow but any notable precipitation stays along the Continental
Divide, with some spotty showers over southwest MT.  As the trof
axis goes by Thurs aftn, mid- and upper-level winds increase
strongly over western portions of Glacier/Teton/Pondera counties and
continue into Fri morning.  Although the situation is overall
marginal for warning-criteria winds (58 mph or more), consistent
model solutions over past several runs gave us enough confidence to
post a high wind watch for the northern/southern Rocky Mtn Front
areas for Thurs/6pm to Fri/noon.  Other than the strong winds,
Friday`s weather still looking quiet as westerly downslope flow
should keep the foothills and plains precipitation-free.  High
temperatures remaining in the low-mid 60s on Thurs/Fri. Waranauskas

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  65  46  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  41  63  41  58 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  40  66  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  33  65  39  61 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  24  52  31  51 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  37  63  42  59 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  69  43  63 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  40  67  43  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 222356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Plenty of clear skies across
the region this aftn as a weak high pressure ridge traverses the
state.  But latest visible satellite imagery already shows leading
edge of high cloud cover associated with a shortwave trof moving
through WA/OR reaching the northwest corner of MT.  This shortwave
is the first of several that will eject from a very deep and cold
closed low pressure system anchored in the Gulf of Alaska over the
next several days.  Though water vapor satellite imagery shows a
good-sized moisture plume accompanying this wave, it also indicates
a distinct split in the plume with much of the moisture heading into
southern BC/Alberta and the secondary swath heading across southern
Idaho.  That leaves our region in the low-moisture area between the
swaths, which is very well depicted in current forecast model
solutions that indicate widespread increasing clouds tonight and
tomorrow but any notable precipitation stays along the Continental
Divide, with some spotty showers over southwest MT.  As the trof
axis goes by Thurs aftn, mid- and upper-level winds increase
strongly over western portions of Glacier/Teton/Pondera counties and
continue into Fri morning.  Although the situation is overall
marginal for warning-criteria winds (58 mph or more), consistent
model solutions over past several runs gave us enough confidence to
post a high wind watch for the northern/southern Rocky Mtn Front
areas for Thurs/6pm to Fri/noon.  Other than the strong winds,
Friday`s weather still looking quiet as westerly downslope flow
should keep the foothills and plains precipitation-free.  High
temperatures remaining in the low-mid 60s on Thurs/Fri. Waranauskas

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Mostly
clear skies but windy conditions are expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent Plains for the next 24 hours. Expect
increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the period.
Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  65  46  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  41  63  41  58 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  40  66  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  33  65  39  61 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  24  52  31  51 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  37  63  42  59 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  69  43  63 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  40  67  43  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 222356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Plenty of clear skies across
the region this aftn as a weak high pressure ridge traverses the
state.  But latest visible satellite imagery already shows leading
edge of high cloud cover associated with a shortwave trof moving
through WA/OR reaching the northwest corner of MT.  This shortwave
is the first of several that will eject from a very deep and cold
closed low pressure system anchored in the Gulf of Alaska over the
next several days.  Though water vapor satellite imagery shows a
good-sized moisture plume accompanying this wave, it also indicates
a distinct split in the plume with much of the moisture heading into
southern BC/Alberta and the secondary swath heading across southern
Idaho.  That leaves our region in the low-moisture area between the
swaths, which is very well depicted in current forecast model
solutions that indicate widespread increasing clouds tonight and
tomorrow but any notable precipitation stays along the Continental
Divide, with some spotty showers over southwest MT.  As the trof
axis goes by Thurs aftn, mid- and upper-level winds increase
strongly over western portions of Glacier/Teton/Pondera counties and
continue into Fri morning.  Although the situation is overall
marginal for warning-criteria winds (58 mph or more), consistent
model solutions over past several runs gave us enough confidence to
post a high wind watch for the northern/southern Rocky Mtn Front
areas for Thurs/6pm to Fri/noon.  Other than the strong winds,
Friday`s weather still looking quiet as westerly downslope flow
should keep the foothills and plains precipitation-free.  High
temperatures remaining in the low-mid 60s on Thurs/Fri. Waranauskas

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Mostly
clear skies but windy conditions are expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent Plains for the next 24 hours. Expect
increasing mid/high level clouds over the region through the period.
Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  65  46  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  41  63  41  58 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  40  66  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  33  65  39  61 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  24  52  31  51 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  37  63  42  59 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  69  43  63 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  40  67  43  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 221953
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
153 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Friday Evening...Plenty of clear skies across
the region this aftn as a weak high pressure ridge traverses the
state.  But latest visible satellite imagery already shows leading
edge of high cloud cover associated with a shortwave trof moving
through WA/OR reaching the northwest corner of MT.  This shortwave
is the first of several that will eject from a very deep and cold
closed low pressure system anchored in the Gulf of Alaska over the
next several days.  Though water vapor satellite imagery shows a
good-sized moisture plume accompanying this wave, it also indicates a
distinct split in the plume with much of the moisture heading into
southern BC/Alberta and the secondary swath heading across southern
Idaho.  That leaves our region in the low-moisture area between the
swaths, which is very well depicted in current forecast model
solutions that indicate widespread increasing clouds tonight and
tomorrow but any notable precipitation stays along the Continental
Divide, with some spotty showers over southwest MT.  As the trof
axis goes by Thurs aftn, mid- and upper-level winds increase
strongly over western portions of Glacier/Teton/Pondera counties and
continue into Fri morning.  Although the situation is overall
marginal for warning-criteria winds (58 mph or more), consistent
model solutions over past several runs gave us enough confidence to
post a high wind watch for the northern/southern Rocky Mtn Front
areas for Thurs/6pm to Fri/noon.  Other than the strong winds,
Friday`s weather still looking quiet as westerly downslope flow
should keep the foothills and plains precipitation-free.  High
temperatures remaining in the low-mid 60s on Thurs/Fri.
Waranauskas

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies but windy conditions are expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent Plains through the afternoon today.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region tonight.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  65  46  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  41  63  41  58 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  40  66  44  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  33  65  39  61 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  24  52  31  51 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  37  63  42  59 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  69  43  63 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  40  67  43  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221749
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Other than scattered cloud cover along the Rocky Mtn Front and
portions of far southwest MT, skies are mostly clear across the
region this morning, thanks to a weak high pressure ridge over the
western half of the state.  Ridge is still forecast to makes it way
eastward through the day, keeping fair skies across our region.
High clouds will begin to increase from the west this evening as an
upper-level trof in eastern WA makes progress toward MT.  Going
forecast in good shape; just made a few tweaks to remove mention of
fog for the remainder of the morning around Bozeman (webcams there
showing clear conditions), decrease overall cloud coverage to match
current satellite imagery, and increased surface winds around
Browning/Heart Butte to match current observations there.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies but windy conditions are expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent Plains through the afternoon today.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region tonight.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Brusda

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 221749
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Other than scattered cloud cover along the Rocky Mtn Front and
portions of far southwest MT, skies are mostly clear across the
region this morning, thanks to a weak high pressure ridge over the
western half of the state.  Ridge is still forecast to makes it way
eastward through the day, keeping fair skies across our region.
High clouds will begin to increase from the west this evening as an
upper-level trof in eastern WA makes progress toward MT.  Going
forecast in good shape; just made a few tweaks to remove mention of
fog for the remainder of the morning around Bozeman (webcams there
showing clear conditions), decrease overall cloud coverage to match
current satellite imagery, and increased surface winds around
Browning/Heart Butte to match current observations there.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies but windy conditions are expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent Plains through the afternoon today.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region tonight.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Brusda

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 221538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Other than scattered cloud cover along the Rocky Mtn Front and
portions of far southwest MT, skies are mostly clear across the
region this morning, thanks to a weak high pressure ridge over the
western half of the state.  Ridge is still forecast to makes it way
eastward through the day, keeping fair skies across our region.
High clouds will begin to increase from the west this evening as an
upper-level trof in eastern WA makes progress toward MT.  Going
forecast in good shape; just made a few tweaks to remove mention of
fog for the remainder of the morning around Bozeman (webcams there
showing clear conditions), decrease overall cloud coverage to match
current satellite imagery, and increased surface winds around
Browning/Heart Butte to match current observations there.
Waranauskas

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Mostly clear skies over area early in period as last of stratiform
precipitation exits to east and high pressure begins building.
Residual moisture from rain Tuesday and cool temperatures with calm
winds may allow development of fog is some southwest valleys early
in period, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. Conditions could drop down
to MVFR and possibly IFR in fog. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.
Gusty winds expected across north-central Montana this afternoon,
with strongest winds near Rocky Mountains. Winds expected to
decrease near to after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 221538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Other than scattered cloud cover along the Rocky Mtn Front and
portions of far southwest MT, skies are mostly clear across the
region this morning, thanks to a weak high pressure ridge over the
western half of the state.  Ridge is still forecast to makes it way
eastward through the day, keeping fair skies across our region.
High clouds will begin to increase from the west this evening as an
upper-level trof in eastern WA makes progress toward MT.  Going
forecast in good shape; just made a few tweaks to remove mention of
fog for the remainder of the morning around Bozeman (webcams there
showing clear conditions), decrease overall cloud coverage to match
current satellite imagery, and increased surface winds around
Browning/Heart Butte to match current observations there.
Waranauskas

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Mostly clear skies over area early in period as last of stratiform
precipitation exits to east and high pressure begins building.
Residual moisture from rain Tuesday and cool temperatures with calm
winds may allow development of fog is some southwest valleys early
in period, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. Conditions could drop down
to MVFR and possibly IFR in fog. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.
Gusty winds expected across north-central Montana this afternoon,
with strongest winds near Rocky Mountains. Winds expected to
decrease near to after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 221135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
534 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1134Z.
Mostly clear skies over area early in period as last of stratiform
precipitation exits to east and high pressure begins building.
Residual moisture from rain Tuesday and cool temperatures with calm
winds may allow development of fog is some southwest valleys early
in period, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. Conditions could drop down
to MVFR and possibly IFR in fog. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.
Gusty winds expected across north-central Montana this afternoon,
with strongest winds near Rocky Mountains. Winds expected to
decrease near to after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 220944
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
344 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0533Z.
Radar and surface observations depict an area of stratiform
precipitation remaining over north-central MT at 05z which will
continue to affect KHVR early in the period. This is working its way
to the east and weakening, so should start to see some clearing this
area after 08z. Other terminals already seeing some clearing, and
expect mostly VFR conditions. Exception will be development of some
fog between 10z and 13z, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. This could
bring conditions down to MVFR and possibly IFR during the morning.
00Z KGTF balloon reports freezing level at 072 MSL, so expect icing
from around FL 070 to 180 MSL through 0300 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 220944
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
344 AM MDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The upper trough responsible for the recent
precipitation has moved into eastern Montana and as of 3 am there
were only a few lingering showers over north central Montana.
Expect these to end by around 6 am. As for the threat of
fog..there should be enough wind to prevent its formation this
morning with the exception of some of the valleys of southwest
Montana where winds are light. For today an upper ridge will move
into central Montana this afternoon and result in a good deal of
sunshine and no precipitation. For tonight into Thursday night
southwest flow aloft will increase along embedded moisture. Due to
downslope flow any precipitation should be confined to the western
mountains with also a small threat in the southwest valleys by
Thursday night. Snow levels will be relatively high so that
mountain passes should not see any snow.

High Wind situation...With the increasing southwest flow aloft
will have to watch the threat for high winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening into Friday. Models are not in
particularly good agreement on the details of this flow. Models do
not indicate a strong stable layer above the mountains nor a
strong surface pressure gradient both of which would aid in high
wind development. Consequently do not have enough confidence to
issue any high wind highlights but there is enough of a threat
that the situation will need to be watched closely. Blank

Friday Night through Wednesday...Long term models in relatively good
agreement with larger features and timing, but showing some
differences in finer details. Period starts with an upper level high
pressure ridge covering much of the western U.S. with the next in
the series of low pressure troughs approaching from the west. Both
GFS and ECMWF show several small weather systems embedded in the
trough in a disorganized fashion though placement and strength of
these small systems varies between the models. At this time, the
trough is expected to push into central Montana late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night, and may bring some precipitation,
mainly to the west and southwest mountains. With the current
progressive pattern, the trough moves off to the east fairly
quickly, and the high pressure barely has a chance to start
rebuilding Tuesday before the next area of low pressure sweeps in
Tuesday night. These back to back troughs are expected to bring in
some slightly colder air. Once again, could see some precipitation
with trough passages the middle of next week, but best chances
for this remain over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0533Z.
Radar and surface observations depict an area of stratiform
precipitation remaining over north-central MT at 05z which will
continue to affect KHVR early in the period. This is working its way
to the east and weakening, so should start to see some clearing this
area after 08z. Other terminals already seeing some clearing, and
expect mostly VFR conditions. Exception will be development of some
fog between 10z and 13z, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. This could
bring conditions down to MVFR and possibly IFR during the morning.
00Z KGTF balloon reports freezing level at 072 MSL, so expect icing
from around FL 070 to 180 MSL through 0300 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  44  65  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  61  40  63  40 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  61  39  66  42 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  56  32  64  38 /  10   0  10  20
WEY  44  23  52  28 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  57  37  62  40 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  63  38  69  41 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  61  39  67  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 220533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Surface cold front has passed through central and southwest
Montana. Isolated strong wind gusts and occasional lightning
strikes were observed along the leading edge of the cold front.
Pressure rises over the region are allowing wind gusts to settle
down as cooler air moves in. Rain has been steady over the north
central plains, with snow observed on highway passes across the
southwest. This activity will continue to move away to the east
by around 0400 UTC. Shortwave ridging aloft develops quickly by
12Z, and so expect skies to clear quickly by morning. With this
update have freshened POP/QPF and hourly temperature grids to
better match observations this evening. Will need to continue
monitoring for the possibility of patchy dense fog in the morning.
Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0533Z.
Radar and surface observations depict an area of stratiform
precipitation remaining over north-central MT at 05z which will
continue to affect KHVR early in the period. This is working its way
to the east and weakening, so should start to see some clearing this
area after 08z. Other terminals already seeing some clearing, and
expect mostly VFR conditions. Exception will be development of some
fog between 10z and 13z, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. This could
bring conditions down to MVFR and possibly IFR during the morning.
00Z KGTF balloon reports freezing level at 072 MSL, so expect icing
from around FL 070 to 180 MSL through 0300 UTC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 551 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014/
Tuesday through Thursday...Showers will continue to develop
and move through the area as a low pressure system tracks across
the area this afternoon and evening. Most of the precipitation is
expected to move off to the east overnight. Higher elevation
locations especially over the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest
Montana can expect some light snow accumulations with this system
with the biggest impacts being to area passes with roadways
becoming snow covered and slippery overnight. A weak shortwave
ridge will build into the area behind the system passage and
temperatures should rebound back above seasonal averages by
Wednesday with warm and dry conditions also extending into
Thursday. Suk

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  44  65 /  70   0  10  10
CTB  36  61  41  63 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  37  62  39  65 /  40  10  10  10
BZN  29  56  31  64 /  70  10  10  10
WEY  24  46  23  52 /  50  10  10  10
DLN  32  56  37  61 /  50   0  10  10
HVR  39  63  39  68 /  60  10   0  10
LWT  38  61  39  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 220533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Surface cold front has passed through central and southwest
Montana. Isolated strong wind gusts and occasional lightning
strikes were observed along the leading edge of the cold front.
Pressure rises over the region are allowing wind gusts to settle
down as cooler air moves in. Rain has been steady over the north
central plains, with snow observed on highway passes across the
southwest. This activity will continue to move away to the east
by around 0400 UTC. Shortwave ridging aloft develops quickly by
12Z, and so expect skies to clear quickly by morning. With this
update have freshened POP/QPF and hourly temperature grids to
better match observations this evening. Will need to continue
monitoring for the possibility of patchy dense fog in the morning.
Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0533Z.
Radar and surface observations depict an area of stratiform
precipitation remaining over north-central MT at 05z which will
continue to affect KHVR early in the period. This is working its way
to the east and weakening, so should start to see some clearing this
area after 08z. Other terminals already seeing some clearing, and
expect mostly VFR conditions. Exception will be development of some
fog between 10z and 13z, particularly at KBZN and KHLN. This could
bring conditions down to MVFR and possibly IFR during the morning.
00Z KGTF balloon reports freezing level at 072 MSL, so expect icing
from around FL 070 to 180 MSL through 0300 UTC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 551 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014/
Tuesday through Thursday...Showers will continue to develop
and move through the area as a low pressure system tracks across
the area this afternoon and evening. Most of the precipitation is
expected to move off to the east overnight. Higher elevation
locations especially over the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest
Montana can expect some light snow accumulations with this system
with the biggest impacts being to area passes with roadways
becoming snow covered and slippery overnight. A weak shortwave
ridge will build into the area behind the system passage and
temperatures should rebound back above seasonal averages by
Wednesday with warm and dry conditions also extending into
Thursday. Suk

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  44  65 /  70   0  10  10
CTB  36  61  41  63 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  37  62  39  65 /  40  10  10  10
BZN  29  56  31  64 /  70  10  10  10
WEY  24  46  23  52 /  50  10  10  10
DLN  32  56  37  61 /  50   0  10  10
HVR  39  63  39  68 /  60  10   0  10
LWT  38  61  39  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 220123
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
723 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Surface cold front has passed through central and southwest
Montana. Isolated strong wind gusts and occasional lightning
strikes were observed along the leading edge of the cold front.
Pressure rises over the region are allowing wind gusts to settle
down as cooler air moves in. Rain has been steady over the north
central plains, with snow observed on highway passes across the
southwest. This activity will continue to move away to the east
by around 0400 UTC. Shortwave ridging aloft develops quickly by
12Z, and so expect skies to clear quickly by morning. With this
update have freshened POP/QPF and hourly temperature grids to
better match observations this evening. Will need to continue
monitoring for the possibility of patchy dense fog in the morning.
Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Surface cold front has progressed through central Montana as of 00Z.
Radar and surface observations depict a large area of stratiform
precipitation over central MT. Most terminals will maintain VFR
conditions in spite of light rain through around 0300 UTC. KGTF
continues to switch between VFR and MVFR with -RA. 00Z KGTF balloon
reports FZL at 072 MSL, so expect ICG from around FL 070 to 180 MSL
through 0300 UTC. Weather system heads into eastern MT, with
gradually clearing skies tonight. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 551 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014/
Tuesday through Thursday...Showers will continue to develop
and move through the area as a low pressure system tracks across
the area this afternoon and evening. Most of the precipitation is
expected to move off to the east overnight. Higher elevation
locations especially over the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest
Montana can expect some light snow accumulations with this system
with the biggest impacts being to area passes with roadways
becoming snow covered and slippery overnight. A weak shortwave
ridge will build into the area behind the system passage and
temperatures should rebound back above seasonal averages by
Wednesday with warm and dry conditions also extending into
Thursday. Suk

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  44  65 /  70   0  10  10
CTB  36  61  41  63 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  37  62  39  65 /  40  10  10  10
BZN  29  56  31  64 /  70  10  10  10
WEY  24  46  23  52 /  50  10  10  10
DLN  32  56  37  61 /  50   0  10  10
HVR  39  63  39  68 /  60  10   0  10
LWT  38  61  39  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 212351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
551 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Showers will continue to develop
and move through the area as a low pressure system tracks across
the area this afternoon and evening. Most of the precipitation is
expected to move off to the east overnight. Higher elevation
locations especially over the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest
Montana can expect some light snow accumulations with this system
with the biggest impacts being to area passes with roadways
becoming snow covered and slippery overnight. A weak shortwave
ridge will build into the area behind the system passage and
temperatures should rebound back above seasonal averages by
Wednesday with warm and dry conditions also extending into
Thursday. Suk

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Surface cold front has progressed through central Montana as of 00Z.
Radar and surface observations depict a large area of stratiform
precipitation over central MT. Most terminals will maintain VFR
conditions in spite of light rain through around 0300 UTC. KGTF
continues to switch between VFR and MVFR with -RA. 00Z KGTF balloon
reports FZL at 072 MSL, so expect ICG from around FL 070 to 180 MSL
through 0300 UTC. Weather system heads into eastern MT, with
gradually clearing skies tonight. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  44  65 /  40   0  10  10
CTB  36  61  41  63 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  37  62  39  65 /  40  10  10  10
BZN  29  56  31  64 /  50  10  10  10
WEY  24  46  23  52 /  50  10  10  10
DLN  32  56  37  61 /  50   0  10  10
HVR  39  63  39  68 /  30  10   0  10
LWT  38  61  39  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 212051
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
251 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Showers will continue to develop
and move through the area as a low pressure system tracks across
the area this afternoon and evening. Most of the precipitation is
expected to move off to the east overnight. Higher elevation
locations especially over the Rocky Mountain Front and Southwest
Montana can expect some light snow accumulations with this system
with the biggest impacts being to area passes with roadways
becoming snow covered and slippery overnight. A weak shortwave
ridge will build into the area behind the system passage and
temperatures should rebound back above seasonal averages by
Wednesday with warm and dry conditions also extending into
Thursday. Suk

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Latest analysis shows surface cold front has gone thru KCTB/KHLN and
is just west of KGTF. Front will progress steadily eastward this
aftn/eve with areas of -SHRA and -RA primarily ahead and along the
front. Have also kept TEMPO groups for -TSRA from earlier TAFs for
all but KCTB, as 12Z balloon launch at KGTF showed sufficient
instability for isolated -TSRA and already have observed some small
but potent (convective gust to 40kts at KBTM) storms across
southwest MT.  Expect lowering ceilings across the region as the
front comes through with predominantly VFR conditions, but brief
periods of MVFR or IFR cig/vis possible with any heavier showers or
storms.  Weather system heads into eastern MT, with gradually
clearing skies tonight.  Winds strengthening this aftn behind the
front with widespread gusts of 25-30 kts likely, then tapering off
this evening.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  44  65 /  40   0  10  10
CTB  36  61  41  63 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  37  62  39  65 /  40  10  10  10
BZN  29  56  31  64 /  50  10  10  10
WEY  24  46  23  52 /  50  10  10  10
DLN  32  56  37  61 /  50   0  10  10
HVR  39  63  39  68 /  30  10   0  10
LWT  38  61  39  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Slightly
tweaked pops to account for advancing cold front and the
precipitation shield associated with it. Thunderstorms will be
possible...especially in Southwest Montana, however they will be
relatively low topped and that should limit any wind or hail
threat. Most of the shower activity is on track to impact the area
through the afternoon hours, before diminishing as the system
moves through tonight. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Latest analysis shows surface cold front has gone thru KCTB/KHLN and
is just west of KGTF. Front will progress steadily eastward this
aftn/eve with areas of -SHRA and -RA primarily ahead and along the
front. Have also kept TEMPO groups for -TSRA from earlier TAFs for
all but KCTB, as 12Z balloon launch at KGTF showed sufficient
instability for isolated -TSRA and already have observed some small
but potent (convective gust to 40kts at KBTM) storms across
southwest MT.  Expect lowering ceilings across the region as the
front comes through with predominantly VFR conditions, but brief
periods of MVFR or IFR cig/vis possible with any heavier showers or
storms.  Weather system heads into eastern MT, with gradually
clearing skies tonight.  Winds strengthening this aftn behind the
front with widespread gusts of 25-30 kts likely, then tapering off
this evening.
Waranauskas


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014/
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 211626
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1026 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Slightly
tweaked pops to account for advancing cold front and the precipitation
shield associated with it. Thunderstorms will be
possible...especially in Southwest Montana, however they will be
relatively low topped and that should limit any wind or hail
threat. Most of the shower activity is on track to impact the area
through the afternoon hours, before diminishing as the system
moves through tonight. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014/
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






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