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000
FXUS65 KTFX 072105
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
305 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT SPREAD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ORGANIZED
BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO LOWERED
EVENING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINED WARMER AND THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR OUR CWA WITH
STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON THURSDAY AS A VORTICITY MAXIMA
LEADS A STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MOVING INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA. AT PRESENT THE
NAM MODEL DEPICTS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AS FORECAST WOULD
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES. NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGTF...KCTB AND KHVR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE KEPT VCSH THROUGH MIDDAY. A BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND
03Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 03Z. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND CANADA WILL ALSO PERSIST ABOVE 20KFT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS AT
KHLN AND KBZN...HOWEVER DID NOT ADD FOG DUE TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  81  52  88 /  30  10   0   0
CTB  47  81  47  87 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  57  83  57  89 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  51  79  50  83 /  30  10   0  40
WEY  42  69  42  70 /  20  50  30  50
DLN  52  77  53  78 /  20  20  10  50
HVR  49  84  51  91 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  51  78  52  86 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 071743
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE 10 AM MDT... INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXTENDED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. MLV

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO
DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED BEYOND THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MOST OF THE LINGERING STORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY, TAPPING INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
RESULTING MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE A DISTURBANCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL MONTANA, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ONCE AGAIN. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ONE BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGTF...KCTB AND KHVR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE KEPT VCSH THROUGH MIDDAY. A BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMIARLY
BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VIS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADA WILL ALSO PERSIST ABOVE 20KFT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS AT KHLN
AND KBZN...HOWEVER DID NOT ADD FOG DUE TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MLV

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA
GOT SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS.
ALSO, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, THE
STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN FROM SOME
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER SPREADING OF ANY POTENTIAL NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  50  80  52 /  40  40  10  10
CTB  72  46  79  48 /  50  30  10   0
HLN  81  56  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
BZN  81  51  78  51 /  30  40  30  20
WEY  74  41  69  42 /  30  30  50  40
DLN  80  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  80  48  84  51 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  77  50  78  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 071743
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE 10 AM MDT... INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXTENDED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. MLV

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO
DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED BEYOND THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MOST OF THE LINGERING STORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY, TAPPING INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
RESULTING MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE A DISTURBANCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL MONTANA, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ONCE AGAIN. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ONE BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGTF...KCTB AND KHVR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE KEPT VCSH THROUGH MIDDAY. A BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMIARLY
BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VIS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 03Z. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADA WILL ALSO PERSIST ABOVE 20KFT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS AT KHLN
AND KBZN...HOWEVER DID NOT ADD FOG DUE TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MLV

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA
GOT SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS.
ALSO, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, THE
STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN FROM SOME
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER SPREADING OF ANY POTENTIAL NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  50  80  52 /  40  40  10  10
CTB  72  46  79  48 /  50  30  10   0
HLN  81  56  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
BZN  81  51  78  51 /  30  40  30  20
WEY  74  41  69  42 /  30  30  50  40
DLN  80  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  80  48  84  51 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  77  50  78  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 071129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO
DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED BEYOND THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MOST OF THE LINGERING STORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY, TAPPING INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
RESULTING MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE A DISTURBANCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL MONTANA, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ONCE AGAIN. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ONE BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH WHICH MOVED THROUGH KCTB NEAR 10Z AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PLAINS AND ADJOINING
MOUNTAINS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT A FEW WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER
BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
IN WA AND BC. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA
GOT SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS.
ALSO, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, THE
STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN FROM SOME
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER SPREADING OF ANY POTENTIAL NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  50  80  52 /  40  40  10  10
CTB  72  46  79  48 /  50  30  10   0
HLN  81  56  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
BZN  81  51  78  51 /  30  40  30  20
WEY  74  41  69  42 /  30  30  50  40
DLN  80  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  80  48  84  51 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  77  50  78  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 071129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO
DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED BEYOND THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MOST OF THE LINGERING STORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY, TAPPING INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
RESULTING MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE A DISTURBANCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL MONTANA, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ONCE AGAIN. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ONE BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH WHICH MOVED THROUGH KCTB NEAR 10Z AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PLAINS AND ADJOINING
MOUNTAINS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT A FEW WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER
BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
IN WA AND BC. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA
GOT SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS.
ALSO, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, THE
STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN FROM SOME
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER SPREADING OF ANY POTENTIAL NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  50  80  52 /  40  40  10  10
CTB  72  46  79  48 /  50  30  10   0
HLN  81  56  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
BZN  81  51  78  51 /  30  40  30  20
WEY  74  41  69  42 /  30  30  50  40
DLN  80  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  80  48  84  51 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  77  50  78  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 070924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO
DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED BEYOND THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MOST OF THE LINGERING STORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY, TAPPING INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
RESULTING MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE A DISTURBANCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL MONTANA, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ONCE AGAIN. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ONE BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0556Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FRONT
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE
TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WA AND BC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA
GOT SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS.
ALSO, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, THE
STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN FROM SOME
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER SPREADING OF ANY POTENTIAL NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  50  80  52 /  40  40  10  10
CTB  72  46  79  48 /  50  30  10   0
HLN  81  56  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
BZN  81  51  78  51 /  30  40  30  20
WEY  74  41  69  42 /  30  30  50  40
DLN  80  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  80  48  84  51 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  77  50  78  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 070924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO
DETERMINE IF MENTION OF SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED BEYOND THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MOST OF THE LINGERING STORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON THURSDAY, TAPPING INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
RESULTING MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE A DISTURBANCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL MONTANA, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ONCE AGAIN. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ONE BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. DUE TO
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MODEL RUN HAS THE AREA STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES BOTH MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS
PRETTY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0556Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FRONT
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE
TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WA AND BC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA
GOT SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS.
ALSO, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, THE
STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN FROM SOME
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER SPREADING OF ANY POTENTIAL NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  50  80  52 /  40  40  10  10
CTB  72  46  79  48 /  50  30  10   0
HLN  81  56  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
BZN  81  51  78  51 /  30  40  30  20
WEY  74  41  69  42 /  30  30  50  40
DLN  80  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  80  48  84  51 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  77  50  78  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 070557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0556Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FRONT
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE
TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WA AND BC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 070557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0556Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FRONT
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE
TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WA AND BC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 070557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0556Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FRONT
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE
TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WA AND BC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 070557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0556Z.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FRONT
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
THERE IS A SMOKE LAYER BEING REPORTED AROUND 24000 FT. THIS IS DUE
TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WA AND BC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 070315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 070315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 070315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 070315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE RAWS DID REPORT ABOUT AN INCH
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE STORMS
WELL FORECAST AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR
AREAS OF SMOKE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  57  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  52  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 062357
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK
&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  56  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  51  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 062357
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK
&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  56  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  51  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 062357
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK
&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  56  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  51  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 062357
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK
&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2355Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CIGS
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA SHIFTS
WIND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFT 10Z NORTH...AFTER 18Z SOUTH. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  56  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  51  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 062141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z. WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN
2000-4000 FT STILL COVERING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KHLN-TO-KLWT LINE TO INCLUDE KBZN.  HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE DECKS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP DUE TO AFTN HEATING. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KLWT THROUGH 20Z. DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNSET.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  56  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  51  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 062141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BRUSH FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE DYNAMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHERLY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GIVING NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES A BETTER CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WORK IT WAY EASTWARD...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
PULL SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY WORSEN...UNTIL
THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AT THAT
TIME THE INFLUX OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL BE CUT
OFF...HOWEVER THERE MAY INSTEAD BE A PUSH OF MORE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA FROM FIRES IN CANADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z. WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN
2000-4000 FT STILL COVERING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KHLN-TO-KLWT LINE TO INCLUDE KBZN.  HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE DECKS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP DUE TO AFTN HEATING. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KLWT THROUGH 20Z. DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNSET.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  51  79 /   0  40  50  10
CTB  50  72  46  78 /  10  50  30  10
HLN  56  82  57  82 /   0  30  40  20
BZN  50  81  51  79 /  10  30  40  20
WEY  42  73  40  69 /  20  40  40  50
DLN  51  80  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
HVR  50  78  49  82 /   0  30  20  10
LWT  51  78  50  76 /   0  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA DIVIDED
ALMOST IN HALF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE
US/CAN BORDER AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM
HELENA TO LEWISTOWN.  SOME OF THE OVERCAST IS STARTING TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE OVERCAST AND SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF IDAHO WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS IF FAR SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN/EVE, BUT
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION WILL BE RAIN-FREE TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST A FEW CHANGES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
OVERCAST TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z. WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN
2000-4000 FT STILL COVERING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KHLN-TO-KLWT LINE TO INCLUDE KBZN.  HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE DECKS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP DUE TO AFTN HEATING. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KLWT THROUGH 20Z. DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNSET.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 061745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA DIVIDED
ALMOST IN HALF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE
US/CAN BORDER AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM
HELENA TO LEWISTOWN.  SOME OF THE OVERCAST IS STARTING TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE OVERCAST AND SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF IDAHO WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS IF FAR SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN/EVE, BUT
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION WILL BE RAIN-FREE TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST A FEW CHANGES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
OVERCAST TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z. WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN
2000-4000 FT STILL COVERING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KHLN-TO-KLWT LINE TO INCLUDE KBZN.  HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE DECKS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP DUE TO AFTN HEATING. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KLWT THROUGH 20Z. DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNSET.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061543
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA DIVIDED
ALMOST IN HALF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE
US/CAN BORDER AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM
HELENA TO LEWISTOWN.  SOME OF THE OVERCAST IS STARTING TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE OVERCAST AND SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF IDAHO WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS IF FAR SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN/EVE, BUT
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION WILL BE RAIN-FREE TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST A FEW CHANGES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
OVERCAST TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1132Z.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND ALSO ALONG
THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF A
KBTM-KBZN LINE. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061543
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA DIVIDED
ALMOST IN HALF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE
US/CAN BORDER AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM
HELENA TO LEWISTOWN.  SOME OF THE OVERCAST IS STARTING TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE OVERCAST AND SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF IDAHO WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS IF FAR SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN/EVE, BUT
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION WILL BE RAIN-FREE TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST A FEW CHANGES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
OVERCAST TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1132Z.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND ALSO ALONG
THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF A
KBTM-KBZN LINE. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 061543
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA DIVIDED
ALMOST IN HALF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE
US/CAN BORDER AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM
HELENA TO LEWISTOWN.  SOME OF THE OVERCAST IS STARTING TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE OVERCAST AND SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF IDAHO WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS IF FAR SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN/EVE, BUT
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION WILL BE RAIN-FREE TODAY.  CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST A FEW CHANGES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
OVERCAST TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1132Z.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND ALSO ALONG
THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF A
KBTM-KBZN LINE. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1132Z.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
COUDS OVER CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND ALSO ALONG
THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF A
KBTM-KBZN LINE. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 061132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1132Z.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
COUDS OVER CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND ALSO ALONG
THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF A
KBTM-KBZN LINE. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 061132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1132Z.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
COUDS OVER CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND ALSO ALONG
THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF A
KBTM-KBZN LINE. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061046
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 061046
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061046
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 061046
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST...FOG HAS MOVED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (INTO WEST YELLOWSTONE), SO HAVE PUT
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS MORNING.  COULSTON

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 060939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 060939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 060939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 060939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN IS LEAVING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE, SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SMOKE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTING CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SO THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD TO BE SEVERE. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL TRENDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING IN PART DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAN THE GFS MODEL RUN AND ENDS UP BEING DRY.
FOR FRIDAY BOTH MODEL RUNS BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE EVENING AND TO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE
THAT NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS STRONGER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WETTER THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF RUN.
HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD THE ECMWF COME AROUND TO THE WETTER GFS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED. ON SATURDAY THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODEL RUNS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN
HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
SUCH AS OCCURRED LAST WEEK. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  20  50
CTB  75  49  74  48 /   0  20  50  30
HLN  82  57  83  58 /  10   0  20  30
BZN  79  50  80  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  73  42  72  41 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  79  52  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  76  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  73  50  78  53 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 060550
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS A BIT AS RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK ECHOES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY KEEP MANY AREAS WET AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES. THIS MAINLY AFFECTED
LOW POPULATION RURAL AREAS AND DID NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE ANY CITIES
OR SPOTS NORMALLY COVERED BY THE MEDIA. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

 &&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /  20   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /  10   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  30   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  30  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  70  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /  30   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  70  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 060550
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS A BIT AS RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK ECHOES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY KEEP MANY AREAS WET AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES. THIS MAINLY AFFECTED
LOW POPULATION RURAL AREAS AND DID NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE ANY CITIES
OR SPOTS NORMALLY COVERED BY THE MEDIA. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 0550Z.

SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDERS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS AND ALSO IN
THE KWEY AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AFTER 10Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM NORTHEAST
FERGUS COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SUCH THAT BY 17Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SKIES WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING. BLANK

 &&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /  20   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /  10   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  30   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  30  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  70  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /  30   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  70  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 060257
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
857 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS A BIT AS RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK ECHOES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY KEEP MANY AREAS WET AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES. THIS MAINLY AFFECTED
LOW POPULATION RURAL AREAS AND DID NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE ANY CITIES
OR SPOTS NORMALLY COVERED BY THE MEDIA. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH A GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 18Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT THROUGH 06Z. MPJ

 &&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /  20   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /  10   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  30   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  30  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  70  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /  30   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  70  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 052351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH A GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 18Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT THROUGH 06Z. MPJ

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  20  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  40  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 052351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH A GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 18Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT THROUGH 06Z. MPJ

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  20  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  40  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 052351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH A GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 18Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT THROUGH 06Z. MPJ

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  20  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  40  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 052351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH A GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 18Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT THROUGH 06Z. MPJ

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  20  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  40  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 052047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1755Z. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  LOWEST CEILING CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM KGTF
NORTH TO US/CAN BORDER.  AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER
THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.  WINDS REMAINING AT/BELOW 15
KTS TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  20  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  40  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 052047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTH ON
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1755Z. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  LOWEST CEILING CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM KGTF
NORTH TO US/CAN BORDER.  AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER
THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.  WINDS REMAINING AT/BELOW 15
KTS TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  77  50  79 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  74  48  75 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  51  82  56  84 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  48  79  49  81 /  20  10  10  30
WEY  41  73  41  72 /  40  10  20  30
DLN  50  78  52  80 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  44  76  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  45  74  50  78 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 051758
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. BANDS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS THE HILINE AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO CLEAR WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1755Z. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  LOWEST CEILING CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM KGTF
NORTH TO US/CAN BORDER.  AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER
THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.  WINDS REMAINING AT/BELOW 15
KTS TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  80   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  80   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 051758
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. BANDS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS THE HILINE AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO CLEAR WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1755Z. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  LOWEST CEILING CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM KGTF
NORTH TO US/CAN BORDER.  AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER
THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.  WINDS REMAINING AT/BELOW 15
KTS TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  80   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  80   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 051758
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. BANDS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS THE HILINE AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO CLEAR WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1755Z. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  LOWEST CEILING CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM KGTF
NORTH TO US/CAN BORDER.  AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER
THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.  WINDS REMAINING AT/BELOW 15
KTS TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  80   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  80   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 051758
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. BANDS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS THE HILINE AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO CLEAR WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1755Z. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  LOWEST CEILING CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM KGTF
NORTH TO US/CAN BORDER.  AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER
THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.  WINDS REMAINING AT/BELOW 15
KTS TODAY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  80   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  80   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 051604
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1004 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. BANDS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS THE HILINE AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO CLEAR WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. A SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  80   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  80   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 051604
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1004 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. BANDS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS THE HILINE AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO CLEAR WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. A SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  80   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  80   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 051150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. A SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  40   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  60   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  60   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 051150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. A SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  40   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  60   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  60   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 050937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 10Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  40   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  60   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  60   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 050937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 10Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  40   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  60   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  60   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 050937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 10Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  40   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  60   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  60   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 050937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS BOZEMAN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT`S PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY, SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THE GFS
IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS (AND IS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN), BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MOVES IT IN ON SATURDAY AND IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO A
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS MOVES IT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MONTANA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BECAUSE OF BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 10Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  77  50 /  40   0   0  10
CTB  64  40  74  47 /  60   0   0  20
HLN  70  50  82  56 /  30  10   0  10
BZN  73  47  79  49 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  74  39  74  41 /  40  40  10  20
DLN  78  49  80  51 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  70  45  75  48 /  60   0   0   0
LWT  61  45  74  51 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 050530
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 10Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 050530
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 10Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 050105
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
705 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 050105
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
705 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 050105
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
705 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 050105
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
705 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 042330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES RETURN FOR ONE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 042330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES RETURN FOR ONE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 042330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES RETURN FOR ONE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 042330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES RETURN FOR ONE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





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