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000
FXUS65 KTFX 170454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1053 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...Convective precipitation has generally subsided with the
setting of the sun but a few bands of showers associated with an
upper wave are continuing over my eastern zones this evening. Have
updated the forecast to lower pops over my western plains and
southwest Montana but will continue to keep chance pops over the
east and along the Rocky Mountain Front through the night. Also
noted breaks in the cloud cover over my western zones have allowed
temperatures to cool fairly quickly this evening. Gave some
consideration to dropping overnight lows but satellite imagery and
the latest model runs suggest that cloud cover will move back in
which should allow temperatures to level off for the remainder of
the night. As such, decided not to make any changes to overnight
lows or to sky cover. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area
along and northeast of a KCTB to KLWT line, mainly through 10Z.
These showers may cause mountain obscuration, as well as brief MVFR
conditions. After 12Z, an upper level ridge of high pressure will
gradually move into the area, but increasing moisture aloft will
keep areas of mid level cloudiness across the area. A frontal
boundary along the north and east facing slopes of the Rockies will
shift northeast through the period, causing winds over the plains to
shift from easterly to more southwesterly. However, it will sag back
to the southwest after 00Z, shifting winds over the plains back to a
more southeasterly direction.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  59  42  57 /  20  20  20  30
CTB  31  54  38  52 /  30  20  30  30
HLN  34  63  40  58 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  30  63  36  60 /  20  10  20  40
WEY  21  51  33  51 /  20   0  20  50
DLN  31  63  39  58 /  10   0  30  40
HVR  29  60  38  61 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  27  56  36  57 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 170454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1053 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...Convective precipitation has generally subsided with the
setting of the sun but a few bands of showers associated with an
upper wave are continuing over my eastern zones this evening. Have
updated the forecast to lower pops over my western plains and
southwest Montana but will continue to keep chance pops over the
east and along the Rocky Mountain Front through the night. Also
noted breaks in the cloud cover over my western zones have allowed
temperatures to cool fairly quickly this evening. Gave some
consideration to dropping overnight lows but satellite imagery and
the latest model runs suggest that cloud cover will move back in
which should allow temperatures to level off for the remainder of
the night. As such, decided not to make any changes to overnight
lows or to sky cover. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area
along and northeast of a KCTB to KLWT line, mainly through 10Z.
These showers may cause mountain obscuration, as well as brief MVFR
conditions. After 12Z, an upper level ridge of high pressure will
gradually move into the area, but increasing moisture aloft will
keep areas of mid level cloudiness across the area. A frontal
boundary along the north and east facing slopes of the Rockies will
shift northeast through the period, causing winds over the plains to
shift from easterly to more southwesterly. However, it will sag back
to the southwest after 00Z, shifting winds over the plains back to a
more southeasterly direction.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  59  42  57 /  20  20  20  30
CTB  31  54  38  52 /  30  20  30  30
HLN  34  63  40  58 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  30  63  36  60 /  20  10  20  40
WEY  21  51  33  51 /  20   0  20  50
DLN  31  63  39  58 /  10   0  30  40
HVR  29  60  38  61 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  27  56  36  57 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 170318
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
918 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...Convective precipitation has generally subsided with the
setting of the sun but a few bands of showers associated with an
upper wave are continuing over my eastern zones this evening. Have
updated the forecast to lower pops over my western plains and
southwest Montana but will continue to keep chance pops over the
east and along the Rocky Mountain Front through the night. Also
noted breaks in the cloud cover over my western zones have allowed
temperatures to cool fairly quickly this evening. Gave some
consideration to dropping overnight lows but satellite imagery and
the latest model runs suggest that cloud cover will move back in
which should allow temperatures to level off for the remainder of
the night. As such, decided not to make any changes to overnight
lows or to sky cover. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area,
mainly through 10Z. These showers will likely cause mountain
obscuration, as well as MVFR/IFR conditions. After 12Z, an upper
level ridge of high pressure will gradually move into the area, but
increasing moisture aloft will keep areas of mid level cloudiness
across the area. A frontal boundary along the north and east facing
slopes of the Rockies will shift northeast through the period,
causing winds to shift from easterly to more southwesterly.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  59  42  57 /  20  20  20  30
CTB  31  54  38  52 /  30  20  30  30
HLN  34  63  40  58 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  30  63  36  60 /  20  10  20  40
WEY  21  51  33  51 /  20   0  20  50
DLN  31  63  39  58 /  10   0  30  40
HVR  29  60  38  61 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  27  56  36  57 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 170318
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
918 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...Convective precipitation has generally subsided with the
setting of the sun but a few bands of showers associated with an
upper wave are continuing over my eastern zones this evening. Have
updated the forecast to lower pops over my western plains and
southwest Montana but will continue to keep chance pops over the
east and along the Rocky Mountain Front through the night. Also
noted breaks in the cloud cover over my western zones have allowed
temperatures to cool fairly quickly this evening. Gave some
consideration to dropping overnight lows but satellite imagery and
the latest model runs suggest that cloud cover will move back in
which should allow temperatures to level off for the remainder of
the night. As such, decided not to make any changes to overnight
lows or to sky cover. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area,
mainly through 10Z. These showers will likely cause mountain
obscuration, as well as MVFR/IFR conditions. After 12Z, an upper
level ridge of high pressure will gradually move into the area, but
increasing moisture aloft will keep areas of mid level cloudiness
across the area. A frontal boundary along the north and east facing
slopes of the Rockies will shift northeast through the period,
causing winds to shift from easterly to more southwesterly.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  59  42  57 /  20  20  20  30
CTB  31  54  38  52 /  30  20  30  30
HLN  34  63  40  58 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  30  63  36  60 /  20  10  20  40
WEY  21  51  33  51 /  20   0  20  50
DLN  31  63  39  58 /  10   0  30  40
HVR  29  60  38  61 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  27  56  36  57 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 170002
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area,
mainly through 10Z. These showers will likely cause mountain
obscuration, as well as MVFR/IFR conditions. After 12Z, an upper
level ridge of high pressure will gradually move into the area, but
increasing moisture aloft will keep areas of mid level cloudiness
across the area. A frontal boundary along the north and east facing
slopes of the Rockies will shift northeast through the period,
causing winds to shift from easterly to more southwesterly.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  58  39  57 /  30  20  20  30
CTB  28  54  34  53 /  40  30  30  30
HLN  33  62  38  58 /  30  20  30  40
BZN  29  63  33  61 /  40  10  20  40
WEY  21  52  31  52 /  30  10  20  50
DLN  29  63  36  60 /  20  10  30  40
HVR  27  56  32  60 /  30  20  20  30
LWT  25  54  32  57 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 170002
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area,
mainly through 10Z. These showers will likely cause mountain
obscuration, as well as MVFR/IFR conditions. After 12Z, an upper
level ridge of high pressure will gradually move into the area, but
increasing moisture aloft will keep areas of mid level cloudiness
across the area. A frontal boundary along the north and east facing
slopes of the Rockies will shift northeast through the period,
causing winds to shift from easterly to more southwesterly.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  58  39  57 /  30  20  20  30
CTB  28  54  34  53 /  40  30  30  30
HLN  33  62  38  58 /  30  20  30  40
BZN  29  63  33  61 /  40  10  20  40
WEY  21  52  31  52 /  30  10  20  50
DLN  29  63  36  60 /  20  10  30  40
HVR  27  56  32  60 /  30  20  20  30
LWT  25  54  32  57 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 162053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1744Z.
Central Montana is underneath unsettled northwest flow aloft and
light snow and rain showers will continue across central and
northern portions of the area. Local IFR/MFR are possible near
showers. Low-level moisture and clouds will remain in the area
through the night and some IFR CIGS and VSBYS are possible through
the night and into early Thursday morning. Areas affected include
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT. Most of Southwest Montana will remain VFR
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  58  39  57 /  30  20  20  30
CTB  28  54  34  53 /  40  30  30  30
HLN  33  62  38  58 /  30  20  30  40
BZN  29  63  33  61 /  40  10  20  40
WEY  21  52  31  52 /  30  10  20  50
DLN  29  63  36  60 /  20  10  30  40
HVR  27  56  32  60 /  30  20  20  30
LWT  25  54  32  57 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 162053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1744Z.
Central Montana is underneath unsettled northwest flow aloft and
light snow and rain showers will continue across central and
northern portions of the area. Local IFR/MFR are possible near
showers. Low-level moisture and clouds will remain in the area
through the night and some IFR CIGS and VSBYS are possible through
the night and into early Thursday morning. Areas affected include
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT. Most of Southwest Montana will remain VFR
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  58  39  57 /  30  20  20  30
CTB  28  54  34  53 /  40  30  30  30
HLN  33  62  38  58 /  30  20  30  40
BZN  29  63  33  61 /  40  10  20  40
WEY  21  52  31  52 /  30  10  20  50
DLN  29  63  36  60 /  20  10  30  40
HVR  27  56  32  60 /  30  20  20  30
LWT  25  54  32  57 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 161745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...

The air mass will remain unsettled this morning as several
disturbances continue to move through the flow aloft. Canceled the
winter weather advisories over the Little Belts but the high
lights over the Northern Rockies will continue. Freshened first
period wx and wind grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1744Z.
Central Montana is underneath unsettled northwest flow aloft and
light snow and rain showers will continue across central and
northern portions of the area. Local IFR/MFR are possible near
showers. Low-level moisture and clouds will remain in the area
through the night and some IFR CIGS and VSBYS are possible through
the night and into early Thursday morning. Areas affected include
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT. Most of Southwest Montana will remain VFR
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  30  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  40  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  30  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  30  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  30  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  50  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 161745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...

The air mass will remain unsettled this morning as several
disturbances continue to move through the flow aloft. Canceled the
winter weather advisories over the Little Belts but the high
lights over the Northern Rockies will continue. Freshened first
period wx and wind grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1744Z.
Central Montana is underneath unsettled northwest flow aloft and
light snow and rain showers will continue across central and
northern portions of the area. Local IFR/MFR are possible near
showers. Low-level moisture and clouds will remain in the area
through the night and some IFR CIGS and VSBYS are possible through
the night and into early Thursday morning. Areas affected include
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT. Most of Southwest Montana will remain VFR
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  30  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  40  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  30  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  30  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  30  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  50  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 161611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...

The air mass will remain unsettled this morning as several
disturbances continue to move through the flow aloft. Canceled the
winter weather advisories over the Little Belts but the high
lights over the Northern Rockies will continue. Freshened first
period wx and wind grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Widespread snow with IFR conditions or lower will affect North
Central MT this morning...with the heaviest snowfall expected at Cut
Bank and Lewistown. Areas of fog are possible at Havre/Great Falls.
Expect mountains to be obscured through the day. Scattered showers
are possible in Southwest MT...mainly this afternoon...with the
Bozeman area seeing the best chance for scattered precip. Expect
slowly improving conditions after 00z Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  30  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  40  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  30  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  30  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  30  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  50  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 161611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...

The air mass will remain unsettled this morning as several
disturbances continue to move through the flow aloft. Canceled the
winter weather advisories over the Little Belts but the high
lights over the Northern Rockies will continue. Freshened first
period wx and wind grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Widespread snow with IFR conditions or lower will affect North
Central MT this morning...with the heaviest snowfall expected at Cut
Bank and Lewistown. Areas of fog are possible at Havre/Great Falls.
Expect mountains to be obscured through the day. Scattered showers
are possible in Southwest MT...mainly this afternoon...with the
Bozeman area seeing the best chance for scattered precip. Expect
slowly improving conditions after 00z Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  30  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  40  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  30  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  30  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  30  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  50  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 161156
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Widespread snow with IFR conditions or lower will affect North
Central MT this morning...with the heaviest snowfall expected at Cut
Bank and Lewistown. Areas of fog are possible at Havre/Great Falls.
Expect mountains to be obscured through the day. Scattered showers
are possible in Southwest MT...mainly this afternoon...with the
Bozeman area seeing the best chance for scattered precip. Expect
slowly improving conditions after 00z Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  70  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  60  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  60  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  60  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  50  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  40  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 161156
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Widespread snow with IFR conditions or lower will affect North
Central MT this morning...with the heaviest snowfall expected at Cut
Bank and Lewistown. Areas of fog are possible at Havre/Great Falls.
Expect mountains to be obscured through the day. Scattered showers
are possible in Southwest MT...mainly this afternoon...with the
Bozeman area seeing the best chance for scattered precip. Expect
slowly improving conditions after 00z Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  70  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  60  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  60  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  60  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  50  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  40  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 160954
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
MVFR with temporary IFR conditions and terrain obscuration expected
at times tonight as showers move through Central Montana. Lack of
cold air should limit snow but a rain and snow mix or brief change
to all snow after 10Z is possible as precip intensity increases. VFR
conditions at most locations will return by morning. Another round
of showers look to develop  Wednesday afternoon bringing more
precipitation and MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  70  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  60  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  60  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  60  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  50  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  40  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 160954
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
MVFR with temporary IFR conditions and terrain obscuration expected
at times tonight as showers move through Central Montana. Lack of
cold air should limit snow but a rain and snow mix or brief change
to all snow after 10Z is possible as precip intensity increases. VFR
conditions at most locations will return by morning. Another round
of showers look to develop  Wednesday afternoon bringing more
precipitation and MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  70  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  60  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  60  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  60  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  50  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  40  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening Cascade...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 160503
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Have made significant changes to the forecast for the rest of
tonight and Wednesday. It now appears the system will not be as
moist or cool as earlier expected. Will continue with the winter
storm warning above 5000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain
Front but amounts could be half of what was earlier expected. Will
restrict the winter weather advisory to the foothills and
mountains of the southern Rocky Mountain Front and central
Montana. It now appears the plains will receive less than 2 inches
of snow. Have dropped the winter weather advisory for southwest
Montana as models indicate the main moisture will stay north of
that area. Raised snow levels for later tonight and Wednesday
afternoon along with highs for Wednesday afternoon. Lows for
tonight might be a little on the cool side but did not have enough
confidence to raise them. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
MVFR with temporary IFR conditions and terrain obscuration expected
at times tonight as showers move through Central Montana. Lack of
cold air should limit snow but a rain and snow mix or brief change
to all snow after 10Z is possible as precip intensity increases. VFR
conditions at most locations will return by morning. Another round
of showers look to develop  Wednesday afternoon bringing more
precipitation and MVFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 615 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beaverhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  44  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  40  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  51  32  61 /  50  60  30  20
BZN  28  51  28  62 /  40  60  40  10
WEY  19  44  22  51 /  50  50  40   0
DLN  28  51  29  61 /  20  40  20  10
HVR  30  44  26  53 /  50  30  30  20
LWT  28  39  25  52 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Cascade...
Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 160301
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
901 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Have made significant changes to the forecast for the rest of
tonight and Wednesday. It now appears the system will not be as
moist or cool as earlier expected. Will continue with the winter
storm warning above 5000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain
Front but amounts could be half of what was earlier expected. Will
restrict the winter weather advisory to the foothills and
mountains of the southern Rocky Mountain Front and central
Montana. It now appears the plains will receive less than 2 inches
of snow. Have dropped the winter weather advisory for southwest
Montana as models indicate the main moisture will stay north of
that area. Raised snow levels for later tonight and Wednesday
afternoon along with highs for Wednesday afternoon. Lows for
tonight might be a little on the cool side but did not have enough
confidence to raise them. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
Weather disturbances moving through the region will bring showers to
the area tonight and Wednesday. MVFR conditions are expected at
times across north central Montana tonight. There is a large spread
in model solutions with some models suggesting an extended period of
snow and IFR conditions for the plains tonight into the early
morning hours. Lack of cold air should limit snow but a rain and
snow mix or brief change over late tonight is expected as precip
intensity increases. Have leaned toward the drier model solutions
with CIGS becoming VFR at most location by early morning with the
exception of KLWT where lower CIGS will linger until mid morning.
Additional showers should develop on Wednesday afternoon. Langlieb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 615 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beavherhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  44  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  40  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  51  32  61 /  50  60  30  20
BZN  28  51  28  62 /  40  60  40  10
WEY  19  44  22  51 /  50  50  40   0
DLN  28  51  29  61 /  20  40  20  10
HVR  30  44  26  53 /  50  30  30  20
LWT  28  39  25  52 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Cascade...
Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 160301
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
901 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Have made significant changes to the forecast for the rest of
tonight and Wednesday. It now appears the system will not be as
moist or cool as earlier expected. Will continue with the winter
storm warning above 5000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain
Front but amounts could be half of what was earlier expected. Will
restrict the winter weather advisory to the foothills and
mountains of the southern Rocky Mountain Front and central
Montana. It now appears the plains will receive less than 2 inches
of snow. Have dropped the winter weather advisory for southwest
Montana as models indicate the main moisture will stay north of
that area. Raised snow levels for later tonight and Wednesday
afternoon along with highs for Wednesday afternoon. Lows for
tonight might be a little on the cool side but did not have enough
confidence to raise them. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
Weather disturbances moving through the region will bring showers to
the area tonight and Wednesday. MVFR conditions are expected at
times across north central Montana tonight. There is a large spread
in model solutions with some models suggesting an extended period of
snow and IFR conditions for the plains tonight into the early
morning hours. Lack of cold air should limit snow but a rain and
snow mix or brief change over late tonight is expected as precip
intensity increases. Have leaned toward the drier model solutions
with CIGS becoming VFR at most location by early morning with the
exception of KLWT where lower CIGS will linger until mid morning.
Additional showers should develop on Wednesday afternoon. Langlieb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 615 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beavherhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  44  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  40  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  51  32  61 /  50  60  30  20
BZN  28  51  28  62 /  40  60  40  10
WEY  19  44  22  51 /  50  50  40   0
DLN  28  51  29  61 /  20  40  20  10
HVR  30  44  26  53 /  50  30  30  20
LWT  28  39  25  52 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Cascade...
Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 160018
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beavherhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
Weather disturbances moving through the region will bring showers to
the area tonight and Wednesday. MVFR conditions are expected at
times across north central Montana tonight. There is a large spread
in model solutions with some models suggesting an extended period of
snow and IFR conditions for the plains tonight into the early
morning hours. Lack of cold air should limit snow but a rain and
snow mix or brief change over late tonight is expected as precip
intensity increases. Have leaned toward the drier model solutions
with CIGS becoming VFR at most location by early morning with the
exception of KLWT where lower CIGS will linger until mid morning.
Additional showers should develop on Wednesday afternoon. Langlieb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  40  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  37  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  47  32  61 /  70  60  30  20
BZN  28  48  28  62 /  70  60  40  10
WEY  19  42  22  51 /  70  50  40   0
DLN  28  49  29  61 /  40  40  20  10
HVR  30  41  26  53 /  70  30  30  20
LWT  28  36  25  52 /  90  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 160018
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beavherhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
Weather disturbances moving through the region will bring showers to
the area tonight and Wednesday. MVFR conditions are expected at
times across north central Montana tonight. There is a large spread
in model solutions with some models suggesting an extended period of
snow and IFR conditions for the plains tonight into the early
morning hours. Lack of cold air should limit snow but a rain and
snow mix or brief change over late tonight is expected as precip
intensity increases. Have leaned toward the drier model solutions
with CIGS becoming VFR at most location by early morning with the
exception of KLWT where lower CIGS will linger until mid morning.
Additional showers should develop on Wednesday afternoon. Langlieb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  40  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  37  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  47  32  61 /  70  60  30  20
BZN  28  48  28  62 /  70  60  40  10
WEY  19  42  22  51 /  70  50  40   0
DLN  28  49  29  61 /  40  40  20  10
HVR  30  41  26  53 /  70  30  30  20
LWT  28  36  25  52 /  90  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 152055
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beavherhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A cold front moving southward out of Canada will lower ceilings to
IFR conditions, mainly after 03z/Wednesday. Precipitation will be
showery in nature but best chances will be at KCTB, KGTF, KLWT, and
KBZN. A rain/snow mix is likely initially but with evaporative
cooling expect mainly -SN after 03z or 04z. Visibilities will
occasionally drop to LIFR in the stronger showers. The low ceilings
will continue through Wednesday morning but -SHSN will become more
isolated in the 15z-18z/Wednesday period. Also, mountain
obscurations will continue through Wednesday. Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  40  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  37  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  47  32  61 /  70  60  30  20
BZN  28  48  28  62 /  70  60  40  10
WEY  19  42  22  51 /  70  50  40   0
DLN  28  49  29  61 /  40  40  20  10
HVR  30  41  26  53 /  70  30  30  20
LWT  28  36  25  52 /  90  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 152055
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure shortwave will move east
of central Montana tonight but the air mass will remain under the
influence of both disturbed flow to the west and an approaching trof
from the north. At lower levels, surface low pressure to the east
and building high pressure to the west will keep brisk, westerly
surface winds in the forecast. The air mass will become fairly
saturated at low levels by late evening across the plains and
central zones. Moist upslope flow will continue across this area
into early Wednesday morning and the air mass will dry during the
day. However, moisture will be sparse to the west from Lewis and
Clark county down to Beavherhead. Snow accumulations continue to be
an area of low confidence. ECMWF and GFS show more moisture than the
NAM and GEM. In addition, change-over from rain to snow and the warm
surface temps will limit amount of snow on the ground. Will continue
the current high lights, including the warning at higher elevations
over the Northern Rockies. A high pressure ridge will be over the
Idaho Panhandle Thursday and the air mass will warm and dry...and
temps generally recover closer to normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A cold front moving southward out of Canada will lower ceilings to
IFR conditions, mainly after 03z/Wednesday. Precipitation will be
showery in nature but best chances will be at KCTB, KGTF, KLWT, and
KBZN. A rain/snow mix is likely initially but with evaporative
cooling expect mainly -SN after 03z or 04z. Visibilities will
occasionally drop to LIFR in the stronger showers. The low ceilings
will continue through Wednesday morning but -SHSN will become more
isolated in the 15z-18z/Wednesday period. Also, mountain
obscurations will continue through Wednesday. Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  40  31  55 /  80  70  30  20
CTB  28  37  25  50 /  80  40  40  30
HLN  33  47  32  61 /  70  60  30  20
BZN  28  48  28  62 /  70  60  40  10
WEY  19  42  22  51 /  70  50  40   0
DLN  28  49  29  61 /  40  40  20  10
HVR  30  41  26  53 /  70  30  30  20
LWT  28  36  25  52 /  90  70  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 151756
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

Today...An upper level low pressure shortwave will cross the Rockies
today and cooler, windier conditions will spread across the plains.
Scattered showers ahead of this shortwave will mainly affect the
western mountains and Southwest Montana but the chance of showers
will increase everywhere later into the afternoon and evening.
Updated to raise a few max temps. Also freshened winds and wx
grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A cold front moving southward out of Canada will lower ceilings to
IFR conditions, mainly after 03z/Wednesday. Precipitation will be
showery in nature but best chances will be at KCTB, KGTF, KLWT, and
KBZN. A rain/snow mix is likely initially but with evaporative
cooling expect mainly -SN after 03z or 04z. Visibilities will
occasionally drop to LIFR in the stronger showers. The low ceilings
will continue through Wednesday morning but -SHSN will become more
isolated in the 15z-18z/Wednesday period. Also, mountain
obscurations will continue through Wednesday. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 151756
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

Today...An upper level low pressure shortwave will cross the Rockies
today and cooler, windier conditions will spread across the plains.
Scattered showers ahead of this shortwave will mainly affect the
western mountains and Southwest Montana but the chance of showers
will increase everywhere later into the afternoon and evening.
Updated to raise a few max temps. Also freshened winds and wx
grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A cold front moving southward out of Canada will lower ceilings to
IFR conditions, mainly after 03z/Wednesday. Precipitation will be
showery in nature but best chances will be at KCTB, KGTF, KLWT, and
KBZN. A rain/snow mix is likely initially but with evaporative
cooling expect mainly -SN after 03z or 04z. Visibilities will
occasionally drop to LIFR in the stronger showers. The low ceilings
will continue through Wednesday morning but -SHSN will become more
isolated in the 15z-18z/Wednesday period. Also, mountain
obscurations will continue through Wednesday. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 151601
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1001 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...An upper level low pressure shortwave will cross the Rockies
today and cooler, windier conditions will spread across the plains.
Scattered showers ahead of this shortwave will mainly affect the
western mountains and Southwest Montana but the chance of showers
will increase everywhere later into the afternoon and evening.
Updated to raise a few max temps. Also freshened winds and wx
grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Expect VFR conditions this morning to gradually give way to more
widespread IFR conditions late this afternoon through tonight.
Mountains will become obscured as widespread rain/snow develops over
much of North Central and Central MT. Expect the precip to continue
into Wednesday and spread southward into Southwest MT. Generally IFR
conditions can be expected across much of the region through the day
on Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 151601
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1001 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...An upper level low pressure shortwave will cross the Rockies
today and cooler, windier conditions will spread across the plains.
Scattered showers ahead of this shortwave will mainly affect the
western mountains and Southwest Montana but the chance of showers
will increase everywhere later into the afternoon and evening.
Updated to raise a few max temps. Also freshened winds and wx
grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Expect VFR conditions this morning to gradually give way to more
widespread IFR conditions late this afternoon through tonight.
Mountains will become obscured as widespread rain/snow develops over
much of North Central and Central MT. Expect the precip to continue
into Wednesday and spread southward into Southwest MT. Generally IFR
conditions can be expected across much of the region through the day
on Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 151159
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Expect VFR conditions this morning to gradually give way to more
widespread IFR conditions late this afternoon through tonight.
Mountains will become obscured as widespread rain/snow develops over
much of North Central and Central MT. Expect the precip to continue
into Wednesday and spread southward into Southwest MT. Generally IFR
conditions can be expected across much of the region through the day
on Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 151159
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Expect VFR conditions this morning to gradually give way to more
widespread IFR conditions late this afternoon through tonight.
Mountains will become obscured as widespread rain/snow develops over
much of North Central and Central MT. Expect the precip to continue
into Wednesday and spread southward into Southwest MT. Generally IFR
conditions can be expected across much of the region through the day
on Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 150958
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will continue but an approaching disturbance will
bring increasing mid/high level clouds with gradually lowering
ceilings after 12Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing mountain obscuring showers to much of Central Montana
by 18Z. Expect occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility at times in
rain and snow. Showers may continue until 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 150958
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 AM MDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...Clouds continue to increase this morning
as shortwave energy moves across the area. Snow will develop over
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front this morning and has prompted
the issuance of a Winter Storm warning for elevations above 5000
feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below
5000 feet. Associated surface low pressure will move to southeast
Montana by late afternoon and this will begin to draw cold
Canadian air across the area. The resulting upslope flow will
produce snow over the mountains and periods of rain and snow over
the plains. The heaviest precipitation will be found in a band
stretching from eastern Glacier County, through Pondera and Teton
Counties, to Cascade County, and on to Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties. Mountains should see 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4
inches possible over the plains. Precipitation should continue
through Wednesday afternoon before tapering off. Lingering
instability showers will continue Wednesday night before becoming
isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages today but dropping some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
averages Wednesday across the central and northern portions of the
county warning area. Afternoon readings will warm Thursday but
will remain below seasonal averages.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Expect a few light showers over the
Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday night...with the showers spreading
eastward out over the Plains on Friday. The main upper level
disturbance producing the precip during this period will move across
southern Canada...but enough moisture/instability will move across
MT that showers will develop...especially over North Central MT. The
precip activity should come to an end by early Saturday
morning...and overall a very nice weekend is expected for all of
North Central and Southwest MT. There is a very small chance for an
isolated shower over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and
around Big Sky this weekend...but otherwise...most areas will be dry
with spring like temperatures. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be a
few degrees above normal...but on Sunday high temperatures should
average 4 to 8 degrees above normal. There is the potential that the
high temperature for Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than
currently forecasted if the GFS model pans out.

Then looking ahead to next Monday through Wednesday...the storm
system that was previously forecasted to move into the region for
Monday into Tuesday...now looks like it will move into the region on
Tue/Wed. Both the GFS and EC have different solutions on this event.
The GFS is very wet/mild and flood highlights would probably be
needed. The EC is not quite as wet...but it would favor the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Thus for now...with the
uncertainty...I will lean more towards climo pops and temperatures
that are near/just above normal...and see how the GFS/EC models work
themselves out over the next few model runs. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will continue but an approaching disturbance will
bring increasing mid/high level clouds with gradually lowering
ceilings after 12Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing mountain obscuring showers to much of Central Montana
by 18Z. Expect occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility at times in
rain and snow. Showers may continue until 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  30  36  23 /  50  80  80  30
CTB  51  27  34  20 /  50  80  70  30
HLN  54  33  43  26 /  40  50  60  30
BZN  53  28  46  24 /  60  70  70  30
WEY  46  21  40  18 /  50  60  50  30
DLN  53  28  46  26 /  40  40  50  20
HVR  59  29  38  21 /  30  70  40  30
LWT  52  28  32  20 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


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www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 150500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
A weakening upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest early this
evening will continue to weaken as it moves through the forecast
area overnight. Expect high clouds the rest of tonight with
varying opaqueness. The only update to the forecast was to change
the mostly cloudy forecast for this evening over the far eastern
plains to partly cloudy in line with satellite imagery trends. The
latest NAM model run continues to have much lower snow totals than
the latest available GFS and ECMWF model runs with the weather
system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will continue but an approaching disturbance will
bring increasing mid/high level clouds with gradually lowering
ceilings after 12Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing mountain obscuring showers to much of Central Montana
by 18Z. Expect occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility at times in
rain and snow. Showers may continue until 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 150245
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
845 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
A weakening upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest early this
evening will continue to weaken as it moves through the forecast
area overnight. Expect high clouds the rest of tonight with
varying opaqueness. The only update to the forecast was to change
the mostly cloudy forecast for this evening over the far eastern
plains to partly cloudy in line with satellite imagery trends. The
latest NAM model run continues to have much lower snow totals than
the latest available GFS and ECMWF model runs with the weather
system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. High pressure will keep skies mostly clear through 06Z.
Gusty westerly winds will decrease somewhat after 00Z. An
approaching disturbance will bring increasing mid/high level clouds
with gradually lowering ceilings after 06Z. The disturbance and its
associated cold front will move into the area after 12Z, shifting
winds more northwesterly and bringing mountain obscuring showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 150245
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
845 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
A weakening upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest early this
evening will continue to weaken as it moves through the forecast
area overnight. Expect high clouds the rest of tonight with
varying opaqueness. The only update to the forecast was to change
the mostly cloudy forecast for this evening over the far eastern
plains to partly cloudy in line with satellite imagery trends. The
latest NAM model run continues to have much lower snow totals than
the latest available GFS and ECMWF model runs with the weather
system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. High pressure will keep skies mostly clear through 06Z.
Gusty westerly winds will decrease somewhat after 00Z. An
approaching disturbance will bring increasing mid/high level clouds
with gradually lowering ceilings after 06Z. The disturbance and its
associated cold front will move into the area after 12Z, shifting
winds more northwesterly and bringing mountain obscuring showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 150000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. High pressure will keep skies mostly clear through 06Z.
Gusty westerly winds will decrease somewhat after 00Z. An
approaching disturbance will bring increasing mid/high level clouds
with gradually lowering ceilings after 06Z. The disturbance and its
associated cold front will move into the area after 12Z, shifting
winds more northwesterly and bringing mountain obscuring showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 142056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear through around 03Z, while breezy and gusty westerly
winds spread across the area through 00Z. Winds will decrease
somewhat after 00Z, but an approaching disturbance will bring
increasing mid/high level cloudiness with gradually lowering
ceilings after 03Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing an increasing chance of mountain obscuring showers.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 142056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear through around 03Z, while breezy and gusty westerly
winds spread across the area through 00Z. Winds will decrease
somewhat after 00Z, but an approaching disturbance will bring
increasing mid/high level cloudiness with gradually lowering
ceilings after 03Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing an increasing chance of mountain obscuring showers.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 141721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will build aloft today and keep the air mass
dry and stable. A low pressure shortwave will approach the West
Coast this afternoon and winds aloft will strengthen across the
Rockies ahead of this feature. This will bring brisk winds across
the lee slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. Current forecast
on track...updates not planned. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear through around 03Z, while breezy and gusty westerly
winds spread across the area through 00Z. Winds will decrease
somewhat after 00Z, but an approaching disturbance will bring
increasing mid/high level cloudiness with gradually lowering
ceilings after 03Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing an increasing chance of mountain obscuring showers.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches.
Likewise, a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings
Hill Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to above
seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping to 20
degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov










000
FXUS65 KTFX 141721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will build aloft today and keep the air mass
dry and stable. A low pressure shortwave will approach the West
Coast this afternoon and winds aloft will strengthen across the
Rockies ahead of this feature. This will bring brisk winds across
the lee slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. Current forecast
on track...updates not planned. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear through around 03Z, while breezy and gusty westerly
winds spread across the area through 00Z. Winds will decrease
somewhat after 00Z, but an approaching disturbance will bring
increasing mid/high level cloudiness with gradually lowering
ceilings after 03Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing an increasing chance of mountain obscuring showers.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches.
Likewise, a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings
Hill Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to above
seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping to 20
degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 141549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
949 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will build aloft today and keep the air mass
dry and stable. A low pressure shortwave will approach the West
Coast this afternoon and winds aloft will strengthen across the
Rockies ahead of this feature. This will bring brisk winds across
the lee slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. Current forecast
on track...updates not planned. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period.
Expect increasing mid/high level cloudiness after 08z Tuesday.
Precip is likely to begin over the Rocky Mountain Front between 12z
Tue and 18z Tue...with the next significant weather system affecting
the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches.
Likewise, a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings
Hill Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to above
seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping to 20
degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 141132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches.
Likewise, a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings
Hill Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to above
seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping to 20
degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period.
Expect increasing mid/high level cloudiness after 08z Tuesday.
Precip is likely to begin over the Rocky Mountain Front between 12z
Tue and 18z Tue...with the next significant weather system affecting
the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 141132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches.
Likewise, a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings
Hill Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to above
seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping to 20
degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period.
Expect increasing mid/high level cloudiness after 08z Tuesday.
Precip is likely to begin over the Rocky Mountain Front between 12z
Tue and 18z Tue...with the next significant weather system affecting
the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 141011
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
411 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches. Likewise,
a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings Hill
Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to
above seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping
to 20 degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions in mostly clear skies will prevail over the region
through Monday. Expect westerly winds to diminish overnight before
strengthening again after 15Z Monday. The next significant weather
system looks to move into the region Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 141011
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
411 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches. Likewise,
a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings Hill
Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to
above seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping
to 20 degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions in mostly clear skies will prevail over the region
through Monday. Expect westerly winds to diminish overnight before
strengthening again after 15Z Monday. The next significant weather
system looks to move into the region Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







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