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000
FXUS65 KTFX 300956
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 300956
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 300445
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

No significant changes made to the forecast overnight into early
Tuesday morning. As of 0330Z...area of subtle enhancement on
water vapor imagery over western/southwest Montana superimposed a
slow moving cluster of showers. This area of moisture wrapped
around the large upper-level low that has been moving through the
West over the past few days and is now positioned in central
Montana. Forecast soundings through tonight indicate that the most
saturated layer exists between 700mb-500mb. Showers will be most
likely in the mountains south of a Helena-to-White Sulphur Springs
Line. Chances are lower across the plains/valleys but again
favored areas are over the SW portion of the CWA as an area of 0-1
km convergence pushes from west to east before weakening early
Tuesday morning. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  40  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  50  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  40  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  10  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 300339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes made to the forecast overnight into early
Tuesday morning. As of 0330Z...area of subtle enhancement on
water vapor imagery over western/southwest Montana superimposed a
slow moving cluster of showers. This area of moisture wrapped
around the large upper-level low that has been moving through the
West over the past few days and is now positioned in central
Montana. Forecast soundings through tonight indicate that the most
saturated layer exists between 700mb-500mb. Showers will be most
likely in the mountains south of a Helena-to-White Sulphur Springs
Line. Chances are lower across the plains/valleys but again
favored areas are over the SW portion of the CWA as an area of 0-1
km convergence pushes from west to east before weakening early
Tuesday morning. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to circulate
moisture across the region as it lifts N tonight with another upper
level trough moving in from the NW Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
broken mid-level clouds will increase tonight as one of several
disturbances embedded within the upper low moves across the region.
Showers associated with this feature will be light with a brief
period of lower ceilings and mtn obscurations possible later this
evening. A trough of low pressure at the surface, extending from SW
AB southward along the East Slopes of the Rockies will shift East
late tonight through Tuesday morning, allowing surface winds to
become predominately from the W or SW at most terminals. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  40  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  50  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  40  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  10  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 300339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes made to the forecast overnight into early
Tuesday morning. As of 0330Z...area of subtle enhancement on
water vapor imagery over western/southwest Montana superimposed a
slow moving cluster of showers. This area of moisture wrapped
around the large upper-level low that has been moving through the
West over the past few days and is now positioned in central
Montana. Forecast soundings through tonight indicate that the most
saturated layer exists between 700mb-500mb. Showers will be most
likely in the mountains south of a Helena-to-White Sulphur Springs
Line. Chances are lower across the plains/valleys but again
favored areas are over the SW portion of the CWA as an area of 0-1
km convergence pushes from west to east before weakening early
Tuesday morning. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to circulate
moisture across the region as it lifts N tonight with another upper
level trough moving in from the NW Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
broken mid-level clouds will increase tonight as one of several
disturbances embedded within the upper low moves across the region.
Showers associated with this feature will be light with a brief
period of lower ceilings and mtn obscurations possible later this
evening. A trough of low pressure at the surface, extending from SW
AB southward along the East Slopes of the Rockies will shift East
late tonight through Tuesday morning, allowing surface winds to
become predominately from the W or SW at most terminals. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  40  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  50  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  40  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  10  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 292345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to circulate
moisture across the region as it lifts N tonight with another upper
level trough moving in from the NW Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
broken mid-level clouds will increase tonight as one of several
disturbances embedded within the upper low moves across the region.
Showers associated with this feature will be light with a brief
period of lower ceilings and mtn obscurations possible later this
evening. A trough of low pressure at the surface, extending from SW
AB southward along the East Slopes of the Rockies will shift East
late tonight through Tuesday morning, allowing surface winds to
become predominately from the W or SW at most terminals. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  50  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  50  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  50  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  30  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  50  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  50  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  50  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  30  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  50  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  50  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  50  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  30  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291755
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1147 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 291755
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1147 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1007 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through the period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1007 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through the period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291143
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation section update

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through th period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291143
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation section update

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through th period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 290950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow will
mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in the Cut
Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less than 1/2
inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all. After this
disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather conditions
are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday afternoon
and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will try to set
up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to move
through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be a
chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies and
north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s for
Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on Saturday.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in the lower
to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV/UT
will lift NE across the ID/WY late tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning, becoming southwesterly Monday
afternoon and evening. Low clouds and mtn/terrain obscuration will
persist through much of tonight though precipitation will be light
and mainly limited to SW MT. Potential exists for fog at most
terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 290950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow will
mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in the Cut
Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less than 1/2
inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all. After this
disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather conditions
are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday afternoon
and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will try to set
up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to move
through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be a
chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies and
north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s for
Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on Saturday.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in the lower
to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV/UT
will lift NE across the ID/WY late tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning, becoming southwesterly Monday
afternoon and evening. Low clouds and mtn/terrain obscuration will
persist through much of tonight though precipitation will be light
and mainly limited to SW MT. Potential exists for fog at most
terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 290451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

While a few sprinkles or drizzle is possible this evening, the
main update for tonight was to add patchy fog across the forecast
area. Forecast confidence was low regarding which locations will
receive fog, however With abundant low-level moisture in place,
there will at least be the potential across most areas. Also
lowered pops through Midnight for portions of the plains based on
current radar trends. As additional moisture and a weak upper-
level shortwave move over southwest Montana late tonight and
Monday, have kept chance to likely pops but qpf amounts will be
low. The remainder of the forecast is on track so did not make
any further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV/UT
will lift NE across the ID/WY late tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning, becoming southwesterly Monday
afternoon and evening. Low clouds and mtn/terrain obscuration will
persist through much of tonight though precipitation will be light
and mainly limited to SW MT. Potential exists for fog at most
terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 522 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  44  59 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  42  68  47  62 /  30  20  30  30
BZN  39  64  43  60 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  31  54  31  51 /  90  40  50  50
DLN  39  64  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 290451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

While a few sprinkles or drizzle is possible this evening, the
main update for tonight was to add patchy fog across the forecast
area. Forecast confidence was low regarding which locations will
receive fog, however With abundant low-level moisture in place,
there will at least be the potential across most areas. Also
lowered pops through Midnight for portions of the plains based on
current radar trends. As additional moisture and a weak upper-
level shortwave move over southwest Montana late tonight and
Monday, have kept chance to likely pops but qpf amounts will be
low. The remainder of the forecast is on track so did not make
any further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV/UT
will lift NE across the ID/WY late tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning, becoming southwesterly Monday
afternoon and evening. Low clouds and mtn/terrain obscuration will
persist through much of tonight though precipitation will be light
and mainly limited to SW MT. Potential exists for fog at most
terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 522 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  44  59 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  42  68  47  62 /  30  20  30  30
BZN  39  64  43  60 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  31  54  31  51 /  90  40  50  50
DLN  39  64  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 290244
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
844 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...

While a few sprinkles or drizzle is possible this evening, the
main update for tonight was to add patchy fog across the forecast
area. Forecast confidence was low regarding which locations will
receive fog, however With abundant low-level moisture in place,
there will at least be the potential across most areas. Also
lowered pops through Midnight for portions of the plains based on
current radar trends. As additional moisture and a weak upper-
level shortwave move over southwest Montana late tonight and
Monday, have kept chance to likely pops but qpf amounts will be
low. The remainder of the forecast is on track so did not make
any further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2322Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV will
lift NE across the Inter-Mountain West tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning. Low clouds and mtn/terrain
obscuration will persist through much of tonight though
precipitation will be spotty and light. Potential exists for fog at
most terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 522 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  44  59 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  42  68  47  62 /  30  20  30  30
BZN  39  64  43  60 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  31  54  31  51 /  90  40  50  50
DLN  39  64  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 290244
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
844 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...

While a few sprinkles or drizzle is possible this evening, the
main update for tonight was to add patchy fog across the forecast
area. Forecast confidence was low regarding which locations will
receive fog, however With abundant low-level moisture in place,
there will at least be the potential across most areas. Also
lowered pops through Midnight for portions of the plains based on
current radar trends. As additional moisture and a weak upper-
level shortwave move over southwest Montana late tonight and
Monday, have kept chance to likely pops but qpf amounts will be
low. The remainder of the forecast is on track so did not make
any further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2322Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV will
lift NE across the Inter-Mountain West tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning. Low clouds and mtn/terrain
obscuration will persist through much of tonight though
precipitation will be spotty and light. Potential exists for fog at
most terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 522 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  44  59 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  42  68  47  62 /  30  20  30  30
BZN  39  64  43  60 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  31  54  31  51 /  90  40  50  50
DLN  39  64  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 282322
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2322Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV will
lift NE across the Inter-Mountain West tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning. Low clouds and mtn/terrain
obscuration will persist through much of tonight though
precipitation will be spotty and light. Potential exists for fog at
most terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 282322
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2322Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV will
lift NE across the Inter-Mountain West tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning. Low clouds and mtn/terrain
obscuration will persist through much of tonight though
precipitation will be spotty and light. Potential exists for fog at
most terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 282031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Still some isolated patchy drizzle/light
rain...mainly in vicinity of KLWT and KBZN...and expected to end by
12z Monday. Low clouds and mountain/terrain obscurations will
persist through tonight as low levels remain moist with localized
visibility restrictions in BR, mainly affecting central and SW MT
terminals. Conditions expected to show improvement after 12z Monday
morning as ceilings gradually rise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 282031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Still some isolated patchy drizzle/light
rain...mainly in vicinity of KLWT and KBZN...and expected to end by
12z Monday. Low clouds and mountain/terrain obscurations will
persist through tonight as low levels remain moist with localized
visibility restrictions in BR, mainly affecting central and SW MT
terminals. Conditions expected to show improvement after 12z Monday
morning as ceilings gradually rise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased pops across Southwest Montana as moisture continues to
move into the area from Idaho and Wyoming. Rain should be more
scattered today with widespread heavy rain not anticipated at this
time. Some showers will have the potential to produce small
areas of heavy rain especially over the mountains of Southwest
Montana. Will expect a decrease in rainfall after noon before the
next wave moves into the area this evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Still some isolated patchy drizzle/light
rain...mainly in vicinity of KLWT and KBZN...and expected to end by
12z Monday. Low clouds and mountain/terrain obscurations will
persist through tonight as low levels remain moist with localized
visibility restrictions in BR, mainly affecting central and SW MT
terminals. Conditions expected to show improvement after 12z Monday
morning as ceilings gradually rise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 281742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased pops across Southwest Montana as moisture continues to
move into the area from Idaho and Wyoming. Rain should be more
scattered today with widespread heavy rain not anticipated at this
time. Some showers will have the potential to produce small
areas of heavy rain especially over the mountains of Southwest
Montana. Will expect a decrease in rainfall after noon before the
next wave moves into the area this evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Still some isolated patchy drizzle/light
rain...mainly in vicinity of KLWT and KBZN...and expected to end by
12z Monday. Low clouds and mountain/terrain obscurations will
persist through tonight as low levels remain moist with localized
visibility restrictions in BR, mainly affecting central and SW MT
terminals. Conditions expected to show improvement after 12z Monday
morning as ceilings gradually rise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 281508
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
908 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased pops across Southwest Montana as moisture continues to
move into the area from Idaho and Wyoming. Rain should be more
scattered today with widespread heavy rain not anticipated at this
time. Some showers will have the potential to produce small
areas of heavy rain especially over the mountains of Southwest
Montana. Will expect a decrease in rainfall after noon before the
next wave moves into the area this evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue through much of the day over
portions of Central and Southwest MT. Mountains will be obscured.
Further north...IFR conditions will occur at times...mainly before
00z Monday. Expect unsettled weather conditions with IFR conditions
most likely continuing into Monday over Southwest MT. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281508
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
908 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased pops across Southwest Montana as moisture continues to
move into the area from Idaho and Wyoming. Rain should be more
scattered today with widespread heavy rain not anticipated at this
time. Some showers will have the potential to produce small
areas of heavy rain especially over the mountains of Southwest
Montana. Will expect a decrease in rainfall after noon before the
next wave moves into the area this evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue through much of the day over
portions of Central and Southwest MT. Mountains will be obscured.
Further north...IFR conditions will occur at times...mainly before
00z Monday. Expect unsettled weather conditions with IFR conditions
most likely continuing into Monday over Southwest MT. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue through much of the day over
portions of Central and Southwest MT. Mountains will be obscured.
Further north...IFR conditions will occur at times...mainly before
00z Monday. Expect unsettled weather conditions with IFR conditions
most likely continuing into Monday over Southwest MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  43  66  49 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  55  40  66  43 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  59  43  68  46 /  40  20  20  30
BZN  56  38  64  42 /  60  60  20  40
WEY  56  30  53  31 /  80  70  40  50
DLN  56  38  63  43 /  60  50  40  40
HVR  59  43  64  44 /  30  30  30  20
LWT  52  42  64  45 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue through much of the day over
portions of Central and Southwest MT. Mountains will be obscured.
Further north...IFR conditions will occur at times...mainly before
00z Monday. Expect unsettled weather conditions with IFR conditions
most likely continuing into Monday over Southwest MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  43  66  49 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  55  40  66  43 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  59  43  68  46 /  40  20  20  30
BZN  56  38  64  42 /  60  60  20  40
WEY  56  30  53  31 /  80  70  40  50
DLN  56  38  63  43 /  60  50  40  40
HVR  59  43  64  44 /  30  30  30  20
LWT  52  42  64  45 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280954
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Precipitation has largely diminished across
the area but some patchy drizzle/light rain will continue tonight,
most likely near the KLWT and KHVR terminals. Low clouds and
mtn/terrain obscurations will persist through tonight as low levels
remain very moist with localized visibility restrictions in BR,
mainly affecting central and SW MT terminals. Some improvement is
expected Sunday as ceilings gradually rise. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  43  66  49 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  55  40  66  43 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  59  43  68  46 /  40  20  20  30
BZN  56  38  64  42 /  60  60  20  40
WEY  56  30  53  31 /  80  70  40  50
DLN  56  38  63  43 /  60  50  40  40
HVR  59  43  64  44 /  30  30  30  20
LWT  52  42  64  45 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280954
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Precipitation has largely diminished across
the area but some patchy drizzle/light rain will continue tonight,
most likely near the KLWT and KHVR terminals. Low clouds and
mtn/terrain obscurations will persist through tonight as low levels
remain very moist with localized visibility restrictions in BR,
mainly affecting central and SW MT terminals. Some improvement is
expected Sunday as ceilings gradually rise. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  43  66  49 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  55  40  66  43 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  59  43  68  46 /  40  20  20  30
BZN  56  38  64  42 /  60  60  20  40
WEY  56  30  53  31 /  80  70  40  50
DLN  56  38  63  43 /  60  50  40  40
HVR  59  43  64  44 /  30  30  30  20
LWT  52  42  64  45 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...
Main updates were to POPs tonight and Sunday. Easterly upslope
surface winds will likely keep rain going along and south of a
Conrad to Havre line to the central Montana mountains, decreasing
somewhat after midnight. However, except for Fergus County (where
the main feed of moisture is still present), additional
precipitation amounts will remain low. They will mainly 0.10 inch
or less, but an additional 0.15 to 0.25 inches are possible in the
mountains. No precipitation being reported north of that line,
but there are still some lower clouds up there, so have left a
slight chance of light rain there. The feed of moisture from the
south is weakening this evening. While light measurable
precipitation is still possible along and east of a Dillon to
White Sulphur Springs line, only a few showers are possible west
of the line. Have therefore lowered POPs across all of southwest
Montana somewhat, but moreso west of that line. Again, additional
precipitation amounts will be low, with mostly 0.10 inches
possible west of the line and 0.10 to 0.20 inches east of it.

Have also lowered POPs somewhat in eastern zones (Hill, Blaine,
northern Fergus Counties) for Sunday. Forecast models generally
move the better moisture out of the area, so have lowered POPs
there from the likely category into the chance category. Only
exception is the Lewistown area, where upslope may keep light
precipitation going for most of the day.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Precipitation has largely diminished across
the area but some patchy drizzle/light rain will continue tonight,
most likely near the KLWT and KHVR terminals. Low clouds and
mtn/terrain obscurations will persist through tonight as low levels
remain very moist with localized visibility restrictions in BR,
mainly affecting central and SW MT terminals. Some improvement is
expected Sunday as ceilings gradually rise. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 / 100  30  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  70  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 /  90  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 / 100  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  70  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  60  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 280450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...
Main updates were to POPs tonight and Sunday. Easterly upslope
surface winds will likely keep rain going along and south of a
Conrad to Havre line to the central Montana mountains, decreasing
somewhat after midnight. However, except for Fergus County (where
the main feed of moisture is still present), additional
precipitation amounts will remain low. They will mainly 0.10 inch
or less, but an additional 0.15 to 0.25 inches are possible in the
mountains. No precipitation being reported north of that line,
but there are still some lower clouds up there, so have left a
slight chance of light rain there. The feed of moisture from the
south is weakening this evening. While light measurable
precipitation is still possible along and east of a Dillon to
White Sulphur Springs line, only a few showers are possible west
of the line. Have therefore lowered POPs across all of southwest
Montana somewhat, but moreso west of that line. Again, additional
precipitation amounts will be low, with mostly 0.10 inches
possible west of the line and 0.10 to 0.20 inches east of it.

Have also lowered POPs somewhat in eastern zones (Hill, Blaine,
northern Fergus Counties) for Sunday. Forecast models generally
move the better moisture out of the area, so have lowered POPs
there from the likely category into the chance category. Only
exception is the Lewistown area, where upslope may keep light
precipitation going for most of the day.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Precipitation has largely diminished across
the area but some patchy drizzle/light rain will continue tonight,
most likely near the KLWT and KHVR terminals. Low clouds and
mtn/terrain obscurations will persist through tonight as low levels
remain very moist with localized visibility restrictions in BR,
mainly affecting central and SW MT terminals. Some improvement is
expected Sunday as ceilings gradually rise. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 / 100  30  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  70  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 /  90  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 / 100  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  70  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  60  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 280254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Main updates were to POPs tonight and Sunday. Easterly upslope
surface winds will likely keep rain going along and south of a
Conrad to Havre line to the central Montana mountains, decreasing
somewhat after midnight. However, except for Fergus County (where
the main feed of moisture is still present), additional
precipitation amounts will remain low. They will mainly 0.10 inch
or less, but an additional 0.15 to 0.25 inches are possible in the
mountains. No precipitation being reported north of that line,
but there are still some lower clouds up there, so have left a
slight chance of light rain there. The feed of moisture from the
south is weakening this evening. While light measurable
precipitation is still possible along and east of a Dillon to
White Sulphur Springs line, only a few showers are possible west
of the line. Have therefore lowered POPs across all of southwest
Montana somewhat, but moreso west of that line. Again, additional
precipitation amounts will be low, with mostly 0.10 inches
possible west of the line and 0.10 to 0.20 inches east of it.

Have also lowered POPs somewhat in eastern zones (Hill, Blaine,
northern Fergus Counties) for Sunday. Forecast models generally
move the better moisture out of the area, so have lowered POPs
there from the likely category into the chance category. Only
exception is the Lewistown area, where upslope may keep light
precipitation going for most of the day.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft over the Great Basin will
continue to circulate deep moisture into the region from the S and
SE through tonight and much of the day Sunday. IFR/LIFR conditions
will be most prevalent overnight tonight with some slight
improvement on Sunday as very moist conditions in low levels will
maintain low cigs and occasional reduced vis in BR. Precipitation
will remain remain widespread at most terminals through much of
tonight before diminishing Sunday with only exception being KCTB
where little or no precipitation is expected and KHVR where precip
will become more likely Sunday morning. Terrain/Mtn obscuration will
continue over much of Central/SW MT with some improvement on Sunday.
Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 / 100  30  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  70  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 /  90  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 / 100  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  70  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  60  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Main updates were to POPs tonight and Sunday. Easterly upslope
surface winds will likely keep rain going along and south of a
Conrad to Havre line to the central Montana mountains, decreasing
somewhat after midnight. However, except for Fergus County (where
the main feed of moisture is still present), additional
precipitation amounts will remain low. They will mainly 0.10 inch
or less, but an additional 0.15 to 0.25 inches are possible in the
mountains. No precipitation being reported north of that line,
but there are still some lower clouds up there, so have left a
slight chance of light rain there. The feed of moisture from the
south is weakening this evening. While light measurable
precipitation is still possible along and east of a Dillon to
White Sulphur Springs line, only a few showers are possible west
of the line. Have therefore lowered POPs across all of southwest
Montana somewhat, but moreso west of that line. Again, additional
precipitation amounts will be low, with mostly 0.10 inches
possible west of the line and 0.10 to 0.20 inches east of it.

Have also lowered POPs somewhat in eastern zones (Hill, Blaine,
northern Fergus Counties) for Sunday. Forecast models generally
move the better moisture out of the area, so have lowered POPs
there from the likely category into the chance category. Only
exception is the Lewistown area, where upslope may keep light
precipitation going for most of the day.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft over the Great Basin will
continue to circulate deep moisture into the region from the S and
SE through tonight and much of the day Sunday. IFR/LIFR conditions
will be most prevalent overnight tonight with some slight
improvement on Sunday as very moist conditions in low levels will
maintain low cigs and occasional reduced vis in BR. Precipitation
will remain remain widespread at most terminals through much of
tonight before diminishing Sunday with only exception being KCTB
where little or no precipitation is expected and KHVR where precip
will become more likely Sunday morning. Terrain/Mtn obscuration will
continue over much of Central/SW MT with some improvement on Sunday.
Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 / 100  30  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  70  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 /  90  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 / 100  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  70  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  60  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 272330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft over the Great Basin will
continue to circulate deep moisture into the region from the S and
SE through tonight and much of the day Sunday. IFR/LIFR conditions
will be most prevalent overnight tonight with some slight
improvement on Sunday as very moist conditions in low levels will
maintain low cigs and occasional reduced vis in BR. Precipitation
will remain remain widespread at most terminals through much of
tonight before diminishing Sunday with only exception being KCTB
where little or no precipitation is expected and KHVR where precip
will become more likely Sunday morning. Terrain/Mtn obscuration will
continue over much of Central/SW MT with some improvement on Sunday.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 /  90  40  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  40  30  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  90  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 / 100  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 /  90  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  80  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  80  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 272330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft over the Great Basin will
continue to circulate deep moisture into the region from the S and
SE through tonight and much of the day Sunday. IFR/LIFR conditions
will be most prevalent overnight tonight with some slight
improvement on Sunday as very moist conditions in low levels will
maintain low cigs and occasional reduced vis in BR. Precipitation
will remain remain widespread at most terminals through much of
tonight before diminishing Sunday with only exception being KCTB
where little or no precipitation is expected and KHVR where precip
will become more likely Sunday morning. Terrain/Mtn obscuration will
continue over much of Central/SW MT with some improvement on Sunday.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 /  90  40  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  40  30  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  90  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 / 100  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 /  90  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  80  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  80  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 272057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1759Z.
Periods of -RA/RA will affect areas south of KCTB and KHVR into this
evening with MVFR/IFR expected at times. Then, the heaviest rainfall
potential tonight exists at KBZN and KLWT where IFR is forecast with
possibly a brief period of LIFR with CIGS between 1-2 kft AGL and
visibilities down to 2-4 miles. Conditions will improve to MVFR/IFR
after 12z/Sunday. Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 /  90  40  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  40  30  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  90  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 / 100  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 /  90  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  80  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  80  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 272057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Light rain will continue across
north-central and southwest Montana this evening, however some
forecast models hint that the precipitation coverage and amounts
will decrease after midnight. Already this afternoon, precipitation
has ended for areas south of line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs, however water vapor satellite indicates another plume of
moisture pushing into central Idaho, which should move into
southwest Montana late this evening/tonight. Thus, have kept the
highest chance of pops across southwest Montana extending north into
areas east of I-15 and north of MT-200 through midnight. After
midnight, forecast confidence decreases regarding precipitation
amounts and coverage but have trended down as the best moisture
transport and upper-level low shifts farther south and east.
Precipitable water amounts will remain 3 to 4 standard deviations
above average. Have kept likely to categorical pops in the mountains
across central and southwest Montana as well as areas in Fergus and
Blaine counties with chance pops elsewhere tonight, then continue a
gradual decrease in pops/qpf from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
Additional precipitation amounts will range from 0.20 inches to 0.50
inches, with less than 0.20 inches for areas along and northwest of
a line from Helena to Great Falls and Havre. By Sunday night and
Monday, a chance of showers will remain in the mountains but overall
precipitation will have ended in the plains and valleys. At this
time, forecast models keep mostly cloudy to overcast sky cover on
Sunday night, but any clearing will allow for areas of fog to
develop. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages on Sunday,
then around seasonal average on Monday as winds shift southerly. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1759Z.
Periods of -RA/RA will affect areas south of KCTB and KHVR into this
evening with MVFR/IFR expected at times. Then, the heaviest rainfall
potential tonight exists at KBZN and KLWT where IFR is forecast with
possibly a brief period of LIFR with CIGS between 1-2 kft AGL and
visibilities down to 2-4 miles. Conditions will improve to MVFR/IFR
after 12z/Sunday. Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  54  42  64 /  90  40  20  20
CTB  40  53  40  62 /  40  30  20  20
HLN  46  59  42  67 /  90  40  20  20
BZN  42  53  38  64 / 100  60  60  20
WEY  34  54  30  54 / 100  80  70  40
DLN  42  55  41  62 /  90  60  50  40
HVR  43  57  41  62 /  80  30  30  40
LWT  42  51  40  62 / 100  80  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1159 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

Light to moderate rain will continue through midday with some
breaks possible this afternoon. Have increased PoPs this morning
for an area extending from West Yellowstone to Bozeman, Great
Falls, Lewistown and Havre based on current radar trends. Overall,
the current forecast is on track with precipitation amounts
ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches today with additional rainfall
expected tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will be below seasonal
averages with highs in the 50s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1759Z.
Periods of -RA/RA will affect areas south of KCTB and KHVR into this
evening with MVFR/IFR expected at times. Then, the heaviest rainfall
potential tonight exists at KBZN and KLWT where IFR is forecast with
possibly a brief period of LIFR with CIGS between 1-2 kft AGL and
visibilities down to 2-4 miles. Conditions will improve to MVFR/IFR
after 12z/Sunday. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idaho beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 / 100  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  90  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 / 100  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 / 100  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 / 100  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 / 100  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 271800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1159 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

Light to moderate rain will continue through midday with some
breaks possible this afternoon. Have increased PoPs this morning
for an area extending from West Yellowstone to Bozeman, Great
Falls, Lewistown and Havre based on current radar trends. Overall,
the current forecast is on track with precipitation amounts
ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches today with additional rainfall
expected tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will be below seasonal
averages with highs in the 50s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1759Z.
Periods of -RA/RA will affect areas south of KCTB and KHVR into this
evening with MVFR/IFR expected at times. Then, the heaviest rainfall
potential tonight exists at KBZN and KLWT where IFR is forecast with
possibly a brief period of LIFR with CIGS between 1-2 kft AGL and
visibilities down to 2-4 miles. Conditions will improve to MVFR/IFR
after 12z/Sunday. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idaho beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 / 100  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  90  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 / 100  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 / 100  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 / 100  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 / 100  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 271509
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
909 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Light to moderate rain will continue through midday with some
breaks possible this afternoon. Have increased PoPs this morning
for an area extending from West Yellowstone to Bozeman, Great
Falls, Lewistown and Havre based on current radar trends. Overall,
the current forecast is on track with precipitation amounts
ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches today with additional rainfall
expected tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will be below seasonal
averages with highs in the 50s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Widespread rain will affect areas over Southwest and Central MT thru
the period. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected along with mountains
being obscured. Scattered light showers are possible in the Cut Bank
area. Expect slowly improving conditions after 07z Sunday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idaho beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 / 100  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  90  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 / 100  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 / 100  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 / 100  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 / 100  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271509
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
909 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Light to moderate rain will continue through midday with some
breaks possible this afternoon. Have increased PoPs this morning
for an area extending from West Yellowstone to Bozeman, Great
Falls, Lewistown and Havre based on current radar trends. Overall,
the current forecast is on track with precipitation amounts
ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches today with additional rainfall
expected tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will be below seasonal
averages with highs in the 50s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Widespread rain will affect areas over Southwest and Central MT thru
the period. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected along with mountains
being obscured. Scattered light showers are possible in the Cut Bank
area. Expect slowly improving conditions after 07z Sunday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014/
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idaho beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 / 100  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  90  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 / 100  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 / 100  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 / 100  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 / 100  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 271152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idaho beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Widespread rain will affect areas over Southwest and Central MT thru
the period. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected along with mountains
being obscured. Scattered light showers are possible in the Cut Bank
area. Expect slowly improving conditions after 07z Sunday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 /  70  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  80  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 /  90  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 /  90  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 /  70  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idaho beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Widespread rain will affect areas over Southwest and Central MT thru
the period. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected along with mountains
being obscured. Scattered light showers are possible in the Cut Bank
area. Expect slowly improving conditions after 07z Sunday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 /  70  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  80  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 /  90  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 /  90  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 /  70  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





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