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000
FXUS65 KTFX 022350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Canadian cold front continues to sweep
southward this afternoon. So far, snow amounts do not appear to be
measuring up to what models have been indicating. Most of this is
due to snowmelt on warm pavement but snowflake morphology appears
to be small conglomerations which are not adding up as well as large
dendritic flakes would. Also, snowfall at KCTB has been off and on
and radar imagery appears to already be showing precipitation
echoes diminishing from north to south. Forecast for this evening
calls for the main band of precipitation to move into southwest
Montana leaving only chance pops over the northern third of my
forecast area. However, overall conditions behind the front
remain generally windy, and colder temperatures are finally moving
south of the Canadian border. Wet roads are still expected to
freeze up overnight and wind chills will likely drop to near or
below advisory level. As such, I am continuing the Winter Weather
Advisory through the night, but would expect that if snow
completely tapers off in the north that subsequent shifts will end
the advisory early and/or transition to wind chill highlights.
Tonight and Tuesday night will be cold with lows expected to be
near or below zero. Tuesday afternoon highs will only climb into
the single digits above zero in the north and into the teens in
the south. Cloud cover will begin to break up on Tuesday leaving
mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in place overnight.
Wednesday will see a transition back to more seasonable conditions
as the high pressure system moves off to the southeast and
pressure falls east of the Continental Divide allow downslope
winds to return to the region. Wednesday temperatures will climb
back into the 20s and 30s with partly cloudy skies, although some
models suggest that the return of westerly winds could cause a
Chinook Arch to develop just east of the Rockies. mpj

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Cold front will continue to push toward southwest Montana through
the evening. Light snow and gusty northerly winds will also continue
behind the front. Snow will taper off across the north after 02z.
MVFR/IFR conditions prevail due to low ceilings, snow, and blowing
snow. Mountains obscured.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -4  10  -5  28 /  80  10   0   0
CTB  -6   9  -7  28 /  30   0   0   0
HLN   3  17   0  32 / 100  20   0   0
BZN   1  16  -5  28 / 100  40   0   0
WEY  -4  15 -19  24 /  80  50   0  10
DLN   1  19  -4  33 / 100  20  10   0
HVR  -4   9  -9  25 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  -5   8  -8  25 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 022152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Canadian cold front continues to sweep
southward this afternoon. So far, snow amounts do not appear to be
measuring up to what models have been indicating. Most of this is
due to snowmelt on warm pavement but snowflake morphology appears
to be small conglomerations which are not adding up as well as large
dentritic flakes would. Also, snowfall at KCTB has been off and on
and radar imagery appears to already be showing precipitation
echoes diminishing from north to south. Forecast for this evening
calls for the main band of precipitation to move into southwest
Montana leaving only chance pops over the northern third of my
forecast area. However, overall conditions behind the front
remain generally windy, and colder temperatures are finally moving
south of the Canadian border. Wet roads are still expected to
freeze up overnight and wind chills will likely drop to near or
below advisory level. As such, I am continuing the Winter Weather
Advisory through the night, but would expect that if snow
completely tapers off in the north that subsequent shifts will end
the advisory early and/or transition to wind chill highlights.
Tonight and Tuesday night will be cold with lows expected to be
near or below zero. Tuesday afternoon highs will only climb into
the single digits above zero in the north and into the teens in
the south. Cloud cover will begin to break up on Tuesday leaving
mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in place overnight.
Wednesday will see a transition back to more seasonable conditions
as the high pressure system moves off to the southeast and
pressure falls east of the Continental Divide allow downslope
winds to return to the region. Wednesday temperatures will climb
back into the 20s and 30s with partly cloudy skies, although some
models suggest that the return of westerly winds could cause a
Chinook Arch to develop just east of the Rockies. mpj

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17Z Monday and will
continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this
afternoon. Start of snow 1 to 2 hours behind front. MVFR/IFR
expected as -SN...occasional SN...and gusty north winds causing BLSN
continue into overnight hours. Short periods of LIFR conditions are
possible with any bands of moderate snow and in vicinity of
mountains. As system continues push south and east...-SN will begin
to taper off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR 02Z-06Z and
through the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -4  10  -5  28 /  80  10   0   0
CTB  -6   9  -7  28 /  30   0   0   0
HLN   3  17   0  32 / 100  20   0   0
BZN   1  16  -5  28 / 100  40   0   0
WEY  -4  15 -19  24 /  80  50   0  10
DLN   1  19  -4  33 / 100  20  10   0
HVR  -4   9  -9  25 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  -5   8  -8  25 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 022152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Canadian cold front continues to sweep
southward this afternoon. So far, snow amounts do not appear to be
measuring up to what models have been indicating. Most of this is
due to snowmelt on warm pavement but snowflake morphology appears
to be small conglomerations which are not adding up as well as large
dentritic flakes would. Also, snowfall at KCTB has been off and on
and radar imagery appears to already be showing precipitation
echoes diminishing from north to south. Forecast for this evening
calls for the main band of precipitation to move into southwest
Montana leaving only chance pops over the northern third of my
forecast area. However, overall conditions behind the front
remain generally windy, and colder temperatures are finally moving
south of the Canadian border. Wet roads are still expected to
freeze up overnight and wind chills will likely drop to near or
below advisory level. As such, I am continuing the Winter Weather
Advisory through the night, but would expect that if snow
completely tapers off in the north that subsequent shifts will end
the advisory early and/or transition to wind chill highlights.
Tonight and Tuesday night will be cold with lows expected to be
near or below zero. Tuesday afternoon highs will only climb into
the single digits above zero in the north and into the teens in
the south. Cloud cover will begin to break up on Tuesday leaving
mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in place overnight.
Wednesday will see a transition back to more seasonable conditions
as the high pressure system moves off to the southeast and
pressure falls east of the Continental Divide allow downslope
winds to return to the region. Wednesday temperatures will climb
back into the 20s and 30s with partly cloudy skies, although some
models suggest that the return of westerly winds could cause a
Chinook Arch to develop just east of the Rockies. mpj

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17Z Monday and will
continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this
afternoon. Start of snow 1 to 2 hours behind front. MVFR/IFR
expected as -SN...occasional SN...and gusty north winds causing BLSN
continue into overnight hours. Short periods of LIFR conditions are
possible with any bands of moderate snow and in vicinity of
mountains. As system continues push south and east...-SN will begin
to taper off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR 02Z-06Z and
through the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -4  10  -5  28 /  80  10   0   0
CTB  -6   9  -7  28 /  30   0   0   0
HLN   3  17   0  32 / 100  20   0   0
BZN   1  16  -5  28 / 100  40   0   0
WEY  -4  15 -19  24 /  80  50   0  10
DLN   1  19  -4  33 / 100  20  10   0
HVR  -4   9  -9  25 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  -5   8  -8  25 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 022152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Canadian cold front continues to sweep
southward this afternoon. So far, snow amounts do not appear to be
measuring up to what models have been indicating. Most of this is
due to snowmelt on warm pavement but snowflake morphology appears
to be small conglomerations which are not adding up as well as large
dentritic flakes would. Also, snowfall at KCTB has been off and on
and radar imagery appears to already be showing precipitation
echoes diminishing from north to south. Forecast for this evening
calls for the main band of precipitation to move into southwest
Montana leaving only chance pops over the northern third of my
forecast area. However, overall conditions behind the front
remain generally windy, and colder temperatures are finally moving
south of the Canadian border. Wet roads are still expected to
freeze up overnight and wind chills will likely drop to near or
below advisory level. As such, I am continuing the Winter Weather
Advisory through the night, but would expect that if snow
completely tapers off in the north that subsequent shifts will end
the advisory early and/or transition to wind chill highlights.
Tonight and Tuesday night will be cold with lows expected to be
near or below zero. Tuesday afternoon highs will only climb into
the single digits above zero in the north and into the teens in
the south. Cloud cover will begin to break up on Tuesday leaving
mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in place overnight.
Wednesday will see a transition back to more seasonable conditions
as the high pressure system moves off to the southeast and
pressure falls east of the Continental Divide allow downslope
winds to return to the region. Wednesday temperatures will climb
back into the 20s and 30s with partly cloudy skies, although some
models suggest that the return of westerly winds could cause a
Chinook Arch to develop just east of the Rockies. mpj

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17Z Monday and will
continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this
afternoon. Start of snow 1 to 2 hours behind front. MVFR/IFR
expected as -SN...occasional SN...and gusty north winds causing BLSN
continue into overnight hours. Short periods of LIFR conditions are
possible with any bands of moderate snow and in vicinity of
mountains. As system continues push south and east...-SN will begin
to taper off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR 02Z-06Z and
through the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -4  10  -5  28 /  80  10   0   0
CTB  -6   9  -7  28 /  30   0   0   0
HLN   3  17   0  32 / 100  20   0   0
BZN   1  16  -5  28 / 100  40   0   0
WEY  -4  15 -19  24 /  80  50   0  10
DLN   1  19  -4  33 / 100  20  10   0
HVR  -4   9  -9  25 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  -5   8  -8  25 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 021800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of
the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually
developing from north to south. Unfortunately, the immediate
passage of the front has resulted in slightly rising temperatures
as the colder air remains a hundred or so miles behind the
boundary. As a result, expect another hour or so of warming before
temperatures begin to fall so have updated today`s Max temperatures
to avoid having highs lower than current observations. Have also
made some minor tweaks to winds and to PoPs in the southern half
of the forecast area. System continues to look on-track for
advisory level snow amounts with blowing snow and below zero wind
chills. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17z Monday and will
continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this
afternoon. Start of snow 1 to 2 hours behind front. MVFR/IFR
expected as -SN...occasional SN...and gusty north winds causing BLSN
continue into overnight hours. Short periods of LIFR conditions are
possible with any bands of moderate snow and in vicinity of
mountains. As system continues push south and east...-SN will begin
to taper off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR 02Z-06A and
through the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  30  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  33   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  37   1  14  -4 /  20 100  40  10
WEY  34  -2  15 -20 /  20  70  40   0
DLN  38   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  33  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  35  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 021800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of
the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually
developing from north to south. Unfortunately, the immediate
passage of the front has resulted in slightly rising temperatures
as the colder air remains a hundred or so miles behind the
boundary. As a result, expect another hour or so of warming before
temperatures begin to fall so have updated today`s Max temperatures
to avoid having highs lower than current observations. Have also
made some minor tweaks to winds and to PoPs in the southern half
of the forecast area. System continues to look on-track for
advisory level snow amounts with blowing snow and below zero wind
chills. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17z Monday and will
continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this
afternoon. Start of snow 1 to 2 hours behind front. MVFR/IFR
expected as -SN...occasional SN...and gusty north winds causing BLSN
continue into overnight hours. Short periods of LIFR conditions are
possible with any bands of moderate snow and in vicinity of
mountains. As system continues push south and east...-SN will begin
to taper off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR 02Z-06A and
through the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  30  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  33   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  37   1  14  -4 /  20 100  40  10
WEY  34  -2  15 -20 /  20  70  40   0
DLN  38   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  33  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  35  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 021800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of
the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually
developing from north to south. Unfortunately, the immediate
passage of the front has resulted in slightly rising temperatures
as the colder air remains a hundred or so miles behind the
boundary. As a result, expect another hour or so of warming before
temperatures begin to fall so have updated today`s Max temperatures
to avoid having highs lower than current observations. Have also
made some minor tweaks to winds and to PoPs in the southern half
of the forecast area. System continues to look on-track for
advisory level snow amounts with blowing snow and below zero wind
chills. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17z Monday and will
continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this
afternoon. Start of snow 1 to 2 hours behind front. MVFR/IFR
expected as -SN...occasional SN...and gusty north winds causing BLSN
continue into overnight hours. Short periods of LIFR conditions are
possible with any bands of moderate snow and in vicinity of
mountains. As system continues push south and east...-SN will begin
to taper off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR 02Z-06A and
through the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  30  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  33   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  37   1  14  -4 /  20 100  40  10
WEY  34  -2  15 -20 /  20  70  40   0
DLN  38   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  33  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  35  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 021700
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of
the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually
developing from north to south. Unfortunately, the immediate
passage of the front has resulted in slightly rising temperatures
as the colder air remains a hundred or so miles behind the
boundary. As a result, expect another hour or so of warming before
temperatures begin to fall so have updated today`s Max temperatures
to avoid having highs lower than current observations. Have also
made some minor tweaks to winds and to PoPs in the southern half
of the forecast area. System continues to look on-track for
advisory level snow amounts with blowing snow and below zero wind
chills. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  30  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  33   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  37   1  14  -4 /  20 100  40  10
WEY  34  -2  15 -20 /  20  70  40   0
DLN  38   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  33  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  35  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 021700
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of
the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually
developing from north to south. Unfortunately, the immediate
passage of the front has resulted in slightly rising temperatures
as the colder air remains a hundred or so miles behind the
boundary. As a result, expect another hour or so of warming before
temperatures begin to fall so have updated today`s Max temperatures
to avoid having highs lower than current observations. Have also
made some minor tweaks to winds and to PoPs in the southern half
of the forecast area. System continues to look on-track for
advisory level snow amounts with blowing snow and below zero wind
chills. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  30  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  33   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  37   1  14  -4 /  20 100  40  10
WEY  34  -2  15 -20 /  20  70  40   0
DLN  38   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  33  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  35  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 021700
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE...Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of
the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually
developing from north to south. Unfortunately, the immediate
passage of the front has resulted in slightly rising temperatures
as the colder air remains a hundred or so miles behind the
boundary. As a result, expect another hour or so of warming before
temperatures begin to fall so have updated today`s Max temperatures
to avoid having highs lower than current observations. Have also
made some minor tweaks to winds and to PoPs in the southern half
of the forecast area. System continues to look on-track for
advisory level snow amounts with blowing snow and below zero wind
chills. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  30  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  33   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  37   1  14  -4 /  20 100  40  10
WEY  34  -2  15 -20 /  20  70  40   0
DLN  38   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  33  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  35  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 021135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 021135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 021135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 021135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day Monday
and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the snow
ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories may
become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values. The
coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before southwest
winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward the 20s and
30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Current mix of clear skies and patchy SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will
give way to steadily increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
as strong Canadian weather system crosses US/Can border later this
morning. VFR conditions will change quickly to MVFR/IFR as -SN and
occasional SN develops behind the front and gusty north winds create
localized areas of blowing snow. Short periods of LIFR conditions
are possible with any bands of moderate snow. The system is expected
to move south at a fairly quick pace so that -SN will begin to taper
off and conditions improve vcnty KCTB/KHVR by around 02Z and through
the evening/overnight hours at remaining local airfields.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 021057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day
Monday and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the
snow ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories
may become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values.
The coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before
southwest winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward
the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 021057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day
Monday and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the
snow ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories
may become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values.
The coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before
southwest winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward
the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 021057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day
Monday and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the
snow ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories
may become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values.
The coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before
southwest winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward
the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 021057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day
Monday and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the
snow ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories
may become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values.
The coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before
southwest winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward
the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 020552
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
No updates to going forecast tonight. Looks like only increasing
high cloudiness tonight before the system moves into the area on
Monday. Southerly winds will become breezy overnight, keeping
temperatures from falling as much as last night. Only made an
adjustment to hourly winds to better reflect current trends. Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 020552
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
No updates to going forecast tonight. Looks like only increasing
high cloudiness tonight before the system moves into the area on
Monday. Southerly winds will become breezy overnight, keeping
temperatures from falling as much as last night. Only made an
adjustment to hourly winds to better reflect current trends. Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 020407
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE...

No updates to going forecast tonight. Looks like only increasing
high cloudiness tonight before the system moves into the area on
Monday. Southerly winds will become breezy overnight, keeping
temperatures from falling as much as last night. Only made an
adjustment to hourly winds to better reflect current trends.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 020407
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE...

No updates to going forecast tonight. Looks like only increasing
high cloudiness tonight before the system moves into the area on
Monday. Southerly winds will become breezy overnight, keeping
temperatures from falling as much as last night. Only made an
adjustment to hourly winds to better reflect current trends.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 020407
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE...

No updates to going forecast tonight. Looks like only increasing
high cloudiness tonight before the system moves into the area on
Monday. Southerly winds will become breezy overnight, keeping
temperatures from falling as much as last night. Only made an
adjustment to hourly winds to better reflect current trends.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 020407
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE...

No updates to going forecast tonight. Looks like only increasing
high cloudiness tonight before the system moves into the area on
Monday. Southerly winds will become breezy overnight, keeping
temperatures from falling as much as last night. Only made an
adjustment to hourly winds to better reflect current trends.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 020015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 020015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 020015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate through the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
High clouds will increase across the area overnight as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 012147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 012147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 012147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Cloud cover will increase overnight but
generally quiet weather will continue through the early morning
hours. However, mid to late Monday morning will see a strong
surface cold front sweeping southward through central Montana,
reaching southwest Montana by Monday evening. Winds will shift to
the north and increase behind the front with temperatures expected
to drop through the day behind the frontal boundary. Widespread
snow and blowing snow will accompany the frontal passage with
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected by
Tuesday morning over the plains and in the valleys. Mountain
locations will likely see anywhere from 3 to 8 inches with some of
the higher peaks in Glacier Park possibly seeing up to 10 inches.
Very cold conditions will prevail Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows are expected to drop to near 10 below zero in the
north and the single digits above zero in the southwest. Tuesday`s
highs will only climb into the single digits above zero in the
north and the teens in the far southwest valleys. Additionally,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing wind chill values to drop as much as 20 to 30 degrees
below zero. I anticipate that Wind Chill Advisories will be issued
for this time period. mpj

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  29  -5   7 /   0 100  90  20
CTB  14  22  -7   5 /  10 100  30  10
HLN  14  32   3  14 /   0  80 100  30
BZN   9  34   1  14 /   0  30 100  40
WEY   1  33  -5  15 /   0  20  70  40
DLN   9  38   2  17 /   0  20 100  30
HVR  13  28  -4   5 /   0  80  30  20
LWT  11  31  -5   5 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011747
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 011747
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 011747
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 011747
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds this
afternoon and evening but VFR conditions should prevail through
about 12Z Monday. Beyond 12Z Monday a strong surface cold front will
sweep south from Canada into north central Montana. Behind the front
there will be a strong wind shift to the north with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and developing widespread snow. The front should move as
far south as KGTF by 18Z Monday and will continue to move southward
beyond the end of the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 011559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
A weak disturbance has moved east of the region and only a few
locations are still seeing low VFR or MVFR cigs. Conditions will
improve during the morning and then VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
A weak disturbance has moved east of the region and only a few
locations are still seeing low VFR or MVFR cigs. Conditions will
improve during the morning and then VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
A weak disturbance has moved east of the region and only a few
locations are still seeing low VFR or MVFR cigs. Conditions will
improve during the morning and then VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...Forecast for today appears to be in good shape and
no changes/updates are anticipated. However, newest model runs
appear to be pulling back on the amount of QPF associated with
tomorrows weather system. Will continue to evaluate models as they
come in but it is possible that the afternoon package may have
lower snow accumulation amounts than the current forecast is
showing. Despite this possible change, the system tomorrow will
still be windy and much colder so the going advisory appears to be
mostly in line with expected conditions. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
A weak disturbance has moved east of the region and only a few
locations are still seeing low VFR or MVFR cigs. Conditions will
improve during the morning and then VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015/

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
454 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area beginning Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
A weak disturbance has moved east of the region and only a few
locations are still seeing low VFR or MVFR cigs. Conditions will
improve during the morning and then VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 011006
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
306 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area begining Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft moving across the area is responsible for areas of low clouds
and very light snow. These clouds will continue to push south
overnight with skies clearing from the north after 12z. VFR
conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the vicinity of
light snow showers due to low ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011006
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
306 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area begining Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft moving across the area is responsible for areas of low clouds
and very light snow. These clouds will continue to push south
overnight with skies clearing from the north after 12z. VFR
conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the vicinity of
light snow showers due to low ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011006
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
306 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2015

...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft persists over the
region today and tonight with generally dry conditions expected.
Cold airmass in place over the region will will modify and
slightly warm today as surface high pressure currently centered
over MT moves off to the east by this afternoon and weak lee-side
troughing begins to extend south along the east slopes of the
Rockies tonight. Upper level shortwave and Jet, currently moving
From AK into the YT, will dig sharply south late tonight through
Monday and continue south through the Northern Rockies Monday
night and Tuesday. This will allow an Arctic cold front to surge
south into north central MT by mid-day Monday, continuing south
through SW MT Monday evening. Models have been reliably consistent
with this feature producing a period of snowfall across much of the
area begining Monday morning along the Canadian border and
spreading south into central MT Monday afternoon and eventually
into SW MT Monday evening. Strong pressure rises following the
frontal passage will likely produce a period of very windy
conditions with blowing and drifting snow likely impacting travel
for a period late Monday afternoon and evening. Short duration of
this event will limit snowfall amounts somewhat with 2 to 4 inches
across much of the lower elevations and 4 to 8 inches in the
mountains. lowest snowfall totals will be across NE portions of
the forecast area where accumulations look to remain less than 2
inches. Much colder air flows into the region following the front
as well Monday night and Tuesday with many locations seeing wind
chill values 10 below to 20 below zero by late Monday night. Will
issue a winter weather advisory to highlight Wind/Snow/Blowing
Snow and Wind chill impacts Monday and Tuesday. Snow and winds
diminish Tuesday with Cold airmass settling over the region and
temperatures mainly in the single digits and low teens above zero.
Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The upper level low pressure trof
will move east of the zones Tuesday night, high pressure will build
aloft, and the airmass will dry. This will lead to an end of
precipitation and clearing skies. At lower levels, the surface high
pressure will be over Central Montana and, with the clearing skies,
cold overnight low temps are expected. Some dangerous wind chills
are thus expected across the region. The surface high will be moving
east Wednesday and temperatures will begin to trend upwards. With a
high pressure ridge building over the West Coast, Central Montana
will be underneath northwest flow aloft. A disturbance moving
through this flow will bring some increased cloud cover to the area
and strengthen a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. Brisk
winds along the slopes of the Rockies will result. Southwest flow
across the Rockies will also hasten the warming across western
portions of the region. A shortwave will move across the West Coast
Thursday and flatten the ridge. Moisture ahead of this system will
cross the Rockies late Thursday and bring a chance of precipitation
across the region. This shortwave will also strengthen winds and
breezy conditions will continue over the Rockies. The shortwave will
move east of the Rockies Friday and the airmass will dry again
Friday night. High pressure will build again through Saturday but
another shortwave will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area
Saturday night and Sunday but any snow accumulations should remain
low and at higher elevations. Temps will begin the period below
normals Tuesday night and Wednesday but rise to near and above
normals Thursday. Temps will remain moderate thought the end of the
period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft moving across the area is responsible for areas of low clouds
and very light snow. These clouds will continue to push south
overnight with skies clearing from the north after 12z. VFR
conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the vicinity of
light snow showers due to low ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  16  29  -4 /  10   0 100  90
CTB  30  14  22  -6 /  10  10 100  30
HLN  32  14  32   5 /  10   0  80 100
BZN  28   9  34   2 /   0   0  30 100
WEY  31   2  34  -5 /   0   0  20  80
DLN  31  10  38   4 /   0   0  20  90
HVR  29  12  28  -2 /  10   0  80  30
LWT  27  10  31  -4 /  10   0 100  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...
Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 010545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Quick further update as of 945 pm. Temperatures are falling a bit
faster than expected in some areas. Have therefore lowered lows
tonight to near zero along the east slopes of the Rockies and out
toward Lewistown. Have also lowered lows well into the single digits
and lower teens below zero in some mountain valleys along the
Continental Divide and in southwest Montana, as well as in the
Little Belt Mountains area, including White Sulphur Springs and
Monarch.  Coulston

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft moving across the area is responsible for areas of low clouds
and very light snow. These clouds will continue to push south
overnight with skies clearing from the north after 12z. VFR
conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the vicinity of
light snow showers due to low ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   0  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   0  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 010545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Quick further update as of 945 pm. Temperatures are falling a bit
faster than expected in some areas. Have therefore lowered lows
tonight to near zero along the east slopes of the Rockies and out
toward Lewistown. Have also lowered lows well into the single digits
and lower teens below zero in some mountain valleys along the
Continental Divide and in southwest Montana, as well as in the
Little Belt Mountains area, including White Sulphur Springs and
Monarch.  Coulston

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft moving across the area is responsible for areas of low clouds
and very light snow. These clouds will continue to push south
overnight with skies clearing from the north after 12z. VFR
conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the vicinity of
light snow showers due to low ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   0  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   0  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Quick further update as of 945 pm. Temperatures are falling a bit
faster than expected in some areas. Have therefore lowered lows
tonight to near zero along the east slopes of the Rockies and out
toward Lewistown. Have also lowered lows well into the single digits
and lower teens below zero in some mountain valleys along the
Continental Divide and in southwest Montana, as well as in the
Little Belt Mountains area, including White Sulphur Springs and
Monarch.  Coulston

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft moving across the area is responsible for areas of low clouds
and very light snow. These clouds will continue to push south
overnight with skies clearing from the north after 12z. VFR
conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the vicinity of
light snow showers due to low ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   0  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   0  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 010447
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Quick further update as of 945 pm. Temperatures are falling a bit
faster than expected in some areas. Have therefore lowered lows
tonight to near zero along the east slopes of the Rockies and out
toward Lewistown. Have also lowered lows well into the single digits
and lower teens below zero in some mountain valleys along the
Continental Divide and in southwest Montana, as well as in the
Little Belt Mountains area, including White Sulphur Springs and
Monarch.  Coulston

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   0  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   0  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010447
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Quick further update as of 945 pm. Temperatures are falling a bit
faster than expected in some areas. Have therefore lowered lows
tonight to near zero along the east slopes of the Rockies and out
toward Lewistown. Have also lowered lows well into the single digits
and lower teens below zero in some mountain valleys along the
Continental Divide and in southwest Montana, as well as in the
Little Belt Mountains area, including White Sulphur Springs and
Monarch.  Coulston

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   0  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   0  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 010325
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
825 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 010325
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
825 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 282350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  10  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 282350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  10  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 282147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface high
pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy light
snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day between
weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions and
somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high pressure system
moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve out a trough
through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and become gusty
during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong.
Monday will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and
widespread snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a
Canadian cold front sweeps southward through the state. Central
and north central Montana should expect to see high temperatures
in the morning with temperatures falling through the day. Much of
this area should expect to see one to three inches of accumulation
on Monday along with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will
remain ahead of the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly
reaching into the mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a
chance for a few snow showers. At this time I will not be issuing
any winter weather highlights for this system but would expect
advisory criteria conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 06Z and 12Z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  10  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 282147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface high
pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy light
snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day between
weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions and
somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high pressure system
moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve out a trough
through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and become gusty
during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong.
Monday will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and
widespread snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a
Canadian cold front sweeps southward through the state. Central
and north central Montana should expect to see high temperatures
in the morning with temperatures falling through the day. Much of
this area should expect to see one to three inches of accumulation
on Monday along with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will
remain ahead of the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly
reaching into the mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a
chance for a few snow showers. At this time I will not be issuing
any winter weather highlights for this system but would expect
advisory criteria conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 06Z and 12Z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  10  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 282147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface high
pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy light
snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day between
weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions and
somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high pressure system
moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve out a trough
through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and become gusty
during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong.
Monday will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and
widespread snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a
Canadian cold front sweeps southward through the state. Central
and north central Montana should expect to see high temperatures
in the morning with temperatures falling through the day. Much of
this area should expect to see one to three inches of accumulation
on Monday along with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will
remain ahead of the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly
reaching into the mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a
chance for a few snow showers. At this time I will not be issuing
any winter weather highlights for this system but would expect
advisory criteria conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 06Z and 12Z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  10  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 282147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface high
pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy light
snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day between
weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions and
somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high pressure system
moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve out a trough
through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and become gusty
during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong.
Monday will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and
widespread snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a
Canadian cold front sweeps southward through the state. Central
and north central Montana should expect to see high temperatures
in the morning with temperatures falling through the day. Much of
this area should expect to see one to three inches of accumulation
on Monday along with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will
remain ahead of the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly
reaching into the mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a
chance for a few snow showers. At this time I will not be issuing
any winter weather highlights for this system but would expect
advisory criteria conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 06Z and 12Z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  10  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 281117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 281117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 280952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







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