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000
FXUS65 KTFX 271800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
COMING FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS TO NEAR HEART BUTTE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALLOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
COMING FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS TO NEAR HEART BUTTE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT
AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
COMING FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS TO NEAR HEART BUTTE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT
AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270947
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270947
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270430
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270430
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270430
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270430
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270242
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270242
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262338
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  40  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  40  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  50  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  50  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 262338
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  40  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  40  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  50  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  50  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED RAIN TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  40  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  40  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  50  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  50  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 262050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED RAIN TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  40  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  40  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  50  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  50  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POP GRID. OVERALL
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST. BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED RAIN TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261800
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POP GRID. OVERALL
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST. BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED RAIN TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POP GRID. OVERALL
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST. BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1555Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POP GRID. OVERALL
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES
ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST. BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1555Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
544 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1144Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
544 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1144Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260958
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0442Z.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH MOST LIGHTNING HAS
CEASED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260958
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF
INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BUT RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MPJ

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0442Z.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH MOST LIGHTNING HAS
CEASED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  48  68  48 /  70  40  50  40
CTB  64  44  69  45 /  70  40  60  40
HLN  71  50  68  48 /  50  40  60  40
BZN  67  44  65  44 /  60  50  50  50
WEY  57  36  58  35 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  65  42  63  44 /  60  50  60  50
HVR  74  47  75  46 /  50  30  50  40
LWT  65  45  67  46 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1043 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WTIH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY WORKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES A FEW DEGREES. ALSO FRESHENED POPS, WX, QPF, AND
WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0442Z.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH MOST LIGHTNING HAS
CEASED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  42  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  44  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1043 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WTIH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY WORKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES A FEW DEGREES. ALSO FRESHENED POPS, WX, QPF, AND
WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0442Z.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH MOST LIGHTNING HAS
CEASED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  42  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  44  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260243
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
843 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WTIH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY WORKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES A FEW DEGREES. ALSO FRESHENED POPS, WX, QPF, AND
WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2338Z.

THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A SHOWERS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  42  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  44  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260243
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
843 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WTIH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY WORKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES A FEW DEGREES. ALSO FRESHENED POPS, WX, QPF, AND
WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2338Z.

THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A SHOWERS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  42  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  44  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 252339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2338Z.

THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A SHOWERS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  44  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  45  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 252339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2338Z.

THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A SHOWERS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  44  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  45  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2338Z.

THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A SHOWERS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  44  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  45  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  44  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  45  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 252056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  44  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  45  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 251750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 251750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251601
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
10 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
VALLEYS. CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 20Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 251601
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
10 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
VALLEYS. CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 20Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 251601
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
10 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
VALLEYS. CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 20Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS. CLOUDS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY 20Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/VFR CEILINGS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS. CLOUDS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY 20Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/VFR CEILINGS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS. CLOUDS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY 20Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/VFR CEILINGS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 250940
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0441Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 250940
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES
THIS MORNING AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. PRIMARY MODELS ALL SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN A
WARMER AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER N-CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS CLOSED OFF OR TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...IT DOES APPEAR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RANGES FROM AROUND 0.3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH OVER 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN ARES. UP TO 0.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WILL NEED
WATCH FOR TEMPORARY RISES ON SMALL MOUNTAIN STREAMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0441Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  49  69  47 /  20  50  70  40
CTB  70  45  66  43 /  20  50  70  50
HLN  72  49  70  50 /  30  60  50  50
BZN  67  45  67  46 /  30  30  50  50
WEY  60  38  58  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  68  44  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
HVR  76  47  73  46 /  10  20  40  30
LWT  67  46  67  48 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 250441
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1041 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED TO
FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0441Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  70  48  69 /  10  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /   0  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  10  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  20  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  20  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  10  30  50  60
HVR  41  74  46  75 /  10  10  20  30
LWT  42  65  46  67 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 250441
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1041 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED TO
FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0441Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  70  48  69 /  10  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /   0  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  10  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  20  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  20  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  10  30  50  60
HVR  41  74  46  75 /  10  10  20  30
LWT  42  65  46  67 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 250305
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED TO
FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  70  48  69 /  10  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /   0  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  10  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  20  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  20  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  10  30  50  60
HVR  41  74  46  75 /  10  10  20  30
LWT  42  65  46  67 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 250305
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED TO
FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  70  48  69 /  10  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /   0  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  10  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  20  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  20  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  10  30  50  60
HVR  41  74  46  75 /  10  10  20  30
LWT  42  65  46  67 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 242327
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 242327
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 242327
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 242327
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 242058
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
258 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1810Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 242058
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
258 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1810Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




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