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000
FXUS65 KTFX 120559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
APPEAR TO BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. THIS BAND THEN MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES
TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION TIME COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. A NARROW BAND OF RA/SN
SHOWERS PRESENTLY NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST...CROSSING NEAR OR OVER KBZN/KHLN AROUND DAWN FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER VFR CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
09Z AND 17Z. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT)
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z. PN/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 120559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
APPEAR TO BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. THIS BAND THEN MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES
TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION TIME COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. A NARROW BAND OF RA/SN
SHOWERS PRESENTLY NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST...CROSSING NEAR OR OVER KBZN/KHLN AROUND DAWN FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER VFR CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
09Z AND 17Z. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT)
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z. PN/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 120411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
APPEAR TO BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. THIS BAND THEN MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES
TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION TIME COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0040Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS. LOWER VFR
CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 120411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
APPEAR TO BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. THIS BAND THEN MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES
TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION TIME COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0040Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS. LOWER VFR
CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 120411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
APPEAR TO BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT. THIS BAND THEN MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES
TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION TIME COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0040Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS. LOWER VFR
CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 120043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0040Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS. LOWER VFR
CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 120043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0040Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS. LOWER VFR
CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 120043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0040Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS. LOWER VFR
CEILINGS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KHVR AND KLWT) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM 17Z THROUGH 00Z.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 112131
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z/FRI...THEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP AFTER THIS
POINT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...MOISTURE/LIGHT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH LENDS TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AVIATION
IMPACTS. FOR NOW WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME
REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECASTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. ACROSS SW MT...SOME POCKETS OF
FZRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...ESPECIALLY VICINITY KHLN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OF NOTE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KHVR/KLWT AS
AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 112131
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z/FRI...THEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP AFTER THIS
POINT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...MOISTURE/LIGHT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH LENDS TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AVIATION
IMPACTS. FOR NOW WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME
REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECASTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. ACROSS SW MT...SOME POCKETS OF
FZRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...ESPECIALLY VICINITY KHLN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OF NOTE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KHVR/KLWT AS
AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 112131
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...ONE MORE AFTN/EVE OF
PLEASANT, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BUT OUR
RUN OF QUIET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
WA/OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND TRACKING STEADILY TOWARD WESTERN MT.
SHORT- TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST MT
THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT TOMORROW MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH OF GREAT
FALLS THROUGH CHOUTEAU COUNTY TOWARD HAVRE AND EAST TOWARD JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIP THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND THE
LACK OF CONSISTENT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDINGS, ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE,
MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATION AND CAUSE ONLY VERY LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP WILL EXIT INTO NORTHEAST MT AND
SASKATCHEWAN FRI EVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SAT, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN AND MTN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT, SO SEVERAL SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MT MAY SEE 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIP THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALLS OF ONE-HALF TO AN INCH OR TWO.
WARANAUSKAS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH
WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
BRUSDA/COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z/FRI...THEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP AFTER THIS
POINT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...MOISTURE/LIGHT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH LENDS TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AVIATION
IMPACTS. FOR NOW WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME
REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECASTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. ACROSS SW MT...SOME POCKETS OF
FZRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...ESPECIALLY VICINITY KHLN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OF NOTE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KHVR/KLWT AS
AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  51  37  51 /  10  60  10  20
CTB  30  45  34  48 /  10  60  10  10
HLN  31  46  33  45 /  30  30  10  20
BZN  26  42  25  40 /  30  30  10  40
WEY  21  38  20  33 /  20  10  10  30
DLN  31  45  31  40 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  26  37  28  51 /  10  50  20  10
LWT  27  40  33  44 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 111806
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1101 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF N-AMERICA WITH COLD LOW CENTER NOW DROPPING S ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER A WEAK
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MILDER AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE N AND E REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR LETHBRIDGE SE THROUGH HAVRE, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MT WILL SLIDE SE TODAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS OVER THE RIDGE AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLER AIR TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD-COVER
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF MOISTURE LURKING OFFSHORE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WILL STREAM NE INTO THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ACROSS MT FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AND ALSO
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIP, WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
WARM ADVECTION OVER COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY,
BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND HAVRE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SW
MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS
WELL AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
LEVELS OVER WESTERN AND SW MT LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT SATURDAY
UNDER COOLING ALOFT AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER MTN PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z/FRI...THEN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP AFTER THIS POINT. DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...MOISTURE/LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
LENDS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND AVIATION IMPACTS. FOR NOW WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME
REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECASTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. ACROSS SW MT...SOME POCKETS OF FZRA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...ESPECIALLY VICINITY KHLN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OF NOTE...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KHVR/KLWT AS AN EASTERLY
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  32  50  36 /   0  10  60  10
CTB  51  29  42  32 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  46  31  47  33 /  10  30  30  10
BZN  42  26  43  26 /   0  30  30  10
WEY  35  20  37  20 /   0  20  10  10
DLN  44  31  45  30 /   0  20  10  10
HVR  48  26  37  28 /  10  10  60  20
LWT  47  27  40  32 /   0  10  60  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 111146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF N-AMERICA WITH COLD LOW CENTER NOW DROPPING S ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER A WEAK
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MILDER AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE N AND E REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR LETHBRIDGE SE THROUGH HAVRE, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MT WILL SLIDE SE TODAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS OVER THE RIDGE AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLER AIR TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD-COVER
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF MOISTURE LURKING OFFSHORE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WILL STREAM NE INTO THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ACROSS MT FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AND ALSO
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIP, WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
WARM ADVECTION OVER COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY,
BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND HAVRE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SW
MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS
WELL AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
LEVELS OVER WESTERN AND SW MT LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT SATURDAY
UNDER COOLING ALOFT AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER MTN PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE HAVRE
AREA...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT FOG AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CUT BANK...GREAT FALLS...AND
LEWISTOWN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MT THIS EVENING...AND PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MT
(INCLUDING AREAS AROUND HELENA/BOZEMAN) TO GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MT AROUND 12Z FRI. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  32  50  36 /   0  10  60  10
CTB  51  29  42  32 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  46  31  47  33 /  10  30  30  10
BZN  42  26  43  26 /   0  30  30  10
WEY  35  20  37  20 /   0  20  10  10
DLN  44  31  45  30 /   0  20  10  10
HVR  48  26  37  28 /  10  10  60  20
LWT  47  27  40  32 /   0  10  60  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 111146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF N-AMERICA WITH COLD LOW CENTER NOW DROPPING S ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER A WEAK
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MILDER AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE N AND E REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR LETHBRIDGE SE THROUGH HAVRE, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MT WILL SLIDE SE TODAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS OVER THE RIDGE AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLER AIR TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD-COVER
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF MOISTURE LURKING OFFSHORE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WILL STREAM NE INTO THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ACROSS MT FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AND ALSO
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIP, WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
WARM ADVECTION OVER COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY,
BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND HAVRE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SW
MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS
WELL AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
LEVELS OVER WESTERN AND SW MT LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT SATURDAY
UNDER COOLING ALOFT AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER MTN PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE HAVRE
AREA...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT FOG AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CUT BANK...GREAT FALLS...AND
LEWISTOWN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MT THIS EVENING...AND PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MT
(INCLUDING AREAS AROUND HELENA/BOZEMAN) TO GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MT AROUND 12Z FRI. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  32  50  36 /   0  10  60  10
CTB  51  29  42  32 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  46  31  47  33 /  10  30  30  10
BZN  42  26  43  26 /   0  30  30  10
WEY  35  20  37  20 /   0  20  10  10
DLN  44  31  45  30 /   0  20  10  10
HVR  48  26  37  28 /  10  10  60  20
LWT  47  27  40  32 /   0  10  60  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 111146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF N-AMERICA WITH COLD LOW CENTER NOW DROPPING S ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER A WEAK
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MILDER AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE N AND E REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR LETHBRIDGE SE THROUGH HAVRE, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MT WILL SLIDE SE TODAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS OVER THE RIDGE AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLER AIR TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD-COVER
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF MOISTURE LURKING OFFSHORE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WILL STREAM NE INTO THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ACROSS MT FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AND ALSO
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIP, WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
WARM ADVECTION OVER COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY,
BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND HAVRE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SW
MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS
WELL AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
LEVELS OVER WESTERN AND SW MT LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT SATURDAY
UNDER COOLING ALOFT AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER MTN PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE HAVRE
AREA...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT FOG AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CUT BANK...GREAT FALLS...AND
LEWISTOWN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MT THIS EVENING...AND PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MT
(INCLUDING AREAS AROUND HELENA/BOZEMAN) TO GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MT AROUND 12Z FRI. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  32  50  36 /   0  10  60  10
CTB  51  29  42  32 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  46  31  47  33 /  10  30  30  10
BZN  42  26  43  26 /   0  30  30  10
WEY  35  20  37  20 /   0  20  10  10
DLN  44  31  45  30 /   0  20  10  10
HVR  48  26  37  28 /  10  10  60  20
LWT  47  27  40  32 /   0  10  60  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 111033
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
333 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF N-AMERICA WITH COLD LOW CENTER NOW DROPPING S ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER A WEAK
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MILDER AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE N AND E REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR LTHBRIDGE SE THROUGH HAVRE, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MT WILL SLIDE SE TODAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS OVER THE RIDGE AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLER AIR TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD-COVER
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF MOISTURE LURKING OFFSHORE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WILL STREAM NE INTO THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ACROSS MT FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AND ALSO
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIP, WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
WARM ADVECTION OVER COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY,
BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND HAVRE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SW
MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS
WELL AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
LEVELS OVER WESTERN AND SW MT LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT SATURDAY
UNDER COOLING ALOFT AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER MTN PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
THE SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT. HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODS OF MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER, THOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED IN IN THE KHVR VICINITY TONIGHT. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST
OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  32  50  36 /   0  10  60  10
CTB  51  29  42  32 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  46  31  47  33 /  10  30  30  10
BZN  42  26  43  26 /   0  30  30  10
WEY  35  20  37  20 /   0  20  10  10
DLN  44  31  45  30 /   0  20  10  10
HVR  48  26  37  28 /  10  10  60  20
LWT  47  27  40  32 /   0  10  60  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 110524
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER MY
NORTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELIEVE THIS IS GENERALLY VIRGA. HOWEVER, THE
GLASGOW NWS OFFICE IS EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THEIR AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ALONG THE GLASGOW BORDER AREA TO RAISE POPS, PRIMARILY IN BLAINE
COUNTY, IN ORDER TO MATCH UP WITH THEIR INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED UPON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EARLY EVENING MODEL RUNS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODS OF MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER, THOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED IN IN THE KHVR VICINITY TONIGHT. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST
OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  33  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 110524
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER MY
NORTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELIEVE THIS IS GENERALLY VIRGA. HOWEVER, THE
GLASGOW NWS OFFICE IS EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THEIR AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ALONG THE GLASGOW BORDER AREA TO RAISE POPS, PRIMARILY IN BLAINE
COUNTY, IN ORDER TO MATCH UP WITH THEIR INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED UPON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EARLY EVENING MODEL RUNS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODS OF MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER, THOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED IN IN THE KHVR VICINITY TONIGHT. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST
OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  33  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 110524
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER MY
NORTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELIEVE THIS IS GENERALLY VIRGA. HOWEVER, THE
GLASGOW NWS OFFICE IS EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THEIR AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ALONG THE GLASGOW BORDER AREA TO RAISE POPS, PRIMARILY IN BLAINE
COUNTY, IN ORDER TO MATCH UP WITH THEIR INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED UPON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EARLY EVENING MODEL RUNS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODS OF MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER, THOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED IN IN THE KHVR VICINITY TONIGHT. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST
OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  33  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 110433
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
933 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER MY
NORTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELIEVE THIS IS GENERALLY VIRGA. HOWEVER, THE
GLASGOW NWS OFFICE IS EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THEIR AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ALONG THE GLASGOW BORDER AREA TO RAISE POPS, PRIMARILY IN BLAINE
COUNTY, IN ORDER TO MATCH UP WITH THEIR INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED UPON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EARLY EVENING MODEL RUNS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS MVFR CEILINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING THE KHVR AREA) BETWEEN
03Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z, SHIFTING
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  33  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 110010
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS MVFR CEILINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING THE KHVR AREA) BETWEEN
03Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z, SHIFTING
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  34  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 110010
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS MVFR CEILINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING THE KHVR AREA) BETWEEN
03Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z, SHIFTING
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  34  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 110010
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS MVFR CEILINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING THE KHVR AREA) BETWEEN
03Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z, SHIFTING
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  34  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 102152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
IN ANY TAF SITE SEEING ANY PRECIP AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
PREVAILING OR TEMPO WEATHER GROUPS FOR NOW. LIGHTER WINDS AT THIS
TIME ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
SE. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  34  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101740
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONIDA PASS TO THE HILINE. CLOUD COVERAGE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING SO PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DRIER AIR
OVER WESTERN MT THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTN, RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR US AT THAT TIME. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN ANY TAF
SITE SEEING ANY PRECIP AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO WEATHER GROUPS FOR NOW. LIGHTER WINDS AT THIS TIME ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES BY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE. MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101740
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONIDA PASS TO THE HILINE. CLOUD COVERAGE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING SO PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DRIER AIR
OVER WESTERN MT THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTN, RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR US AT THAT TIME. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN ANY TAF
SITE SEEING ANY PRECIP AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO WEATHER GROUPS FOR NOW. LIGHTER WINDS AT THIS TIME ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES BY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE. MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101740
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONIDA PASS TO THE HILINE. CLOUD COVERAGE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING SO PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DRIER AIR
OVER WESTERN MT THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTN, RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR US AT THAT TIME. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN ANY TAF
SITE SEEING ANY PRECIP AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO WEATHER GROUPS FOR NOW. LIGHTER WINDS AT THIS TIME ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES BY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE. MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 101638
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONIDA PASS TO THE HILINE. CLOUD COVERAGE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING SO PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DRIER AIR
OVER WESTERN MT THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTN, RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR US AT THAT TIME. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101638
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONIDA PASS TO THE HILINE. CLOUD COVERAGE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING SO PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DRIER AIR
OVER WESTERN MT THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTN, RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR US AT THAT TIME. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 101151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 101149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS....WITH JUST SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRUSDA

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 101037
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
US WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z WED ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 101037
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
US WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z WED ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 100536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
US WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z WED ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 100536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
US WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z WED ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 100536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
US WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z WED ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 100406
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS WILL THE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 092340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS WILL THE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 092059
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HILINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091602
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW I HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE HELENA/BOZEMAN TERMINALS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW I HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE HELENA/BOZEMAN TERMINALS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091041
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE
WINDS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT INCREASE
SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091040 RRA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE
WINDS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT INCREASE
SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 091040
AFDTFX

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA





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