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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010959
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
359 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday through Friday...Unsettled cool conditions will continue
through the rest of the work week. A weak shortwave will allow for
some shower development Wednesday through Thursday...however most
of these showers look to be rather isolated with limited
instability aloft. Therefore the threat of widespread precipitation
or thunderstorms appears to be minimal. Some of the overnight
precipitation could fall as snow over the higher
elevations...accumulations are not expected to be significant at
this time...however higher amounts could be possible especially
across Southwest Montana due to the more convective nature of
these storms. Suk

Friday night through Wednesday...Medium range models start out the
period with shortwave ridging over Montana for mostly dry conditions
Friday night. Models show good agreement that a trough in the Gulf
of Alaska will drop southward along the West Coast with a moist and
somewhat unstable southwesterly flow aloft developing over Montana
through the weekend. Unfortunately, model solutions begin to diverge
significantly by the end of the weekend as the main trough along the
coast ejects energy in the southwest flow. The GFS, in particularly,
uses this energy to develop a secondary low that tracks across
Montana Sunday night and Monday while the ECMWF keeps the core of
the trough firmly ensconced near the Oregon-California border. Have
increased the chance for precipitation during this time frame but
have not gone as cold as the GFS guidance suggests could be possible
for early next week. Model solutions begin to agree once again by
Wednesday as both models gradually strengthen the upper trough over
the southwestern US as ridging develops along the West Coast. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Showers should be moving out of the KLWT to KHVR area by shortly
after midnight however there could be some snow or possibly rain
showers over southwest Montana late tonight. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible in the valleys with snow showers. An
area of showers over Canada will move into north central Montana by
daybreak and again a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible with the showers. Showers will develop over the western and
southwestern mountains Wednesday afternoon and there could be
isolated showers in the valleys. More moisture will move into the
north Wednesday evening with a chance of MVFR conditions in light
snow or possibly rain. MVFR ceilings could become widespread over
north central Montana by late Wednesday evening. Over the plains
gusty westerly winds will continue through the rest of tonight and
then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and shift to a more
northwesterly direction. These winds will then continue into early
Wednesday evening before subsiding slightly by late evening.
Confidence in forecast winds is moderate. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  29  48  29 /  20  30  40  20
CTB  48  27  46  27 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  52  30  50  28 /  30  20  40  20
BZN  52  21  48  20 /  40  20  30  30
WEY  43  13  42   8 /  30  30  40  20
DLN  48  22  45  21 /  40  20  40  20
HVR  55  27  50  25 /  30  20  30  20
LWT  50  27  46  27 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT early this morning Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 010959
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
359 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday through Friday...Unsettled cool conditions will continue
through the rest of the work week. A weak shortwave will allow for
some shower development Wednesday through Thursday...however most
of these showers look to be rather isolated with limited
instability aloft. Therefore the threat of widespread precipitation
or thunderstorms appears to be minimal. Some of the overnight
precipitation could fall as snow over the higher
elevations...accumulations are not expected to be significant at
this time...however higher amounts could be possible especially
across Southwest Montana due to the more convective nature of
these storms. Suk

Friday night through Wednesday...Medium range models start out the
period with shortwave ridging over Montana for mostly dry conditions
Friday night. Models show good agreement that a trough in the Gulf
of Alaska will drop southward along the West Coast with a moist and
somewhat unstable southwesterly flow aloft developing over Montana
through the weekend. Unfortunately, model solutions begin to diverge
significantly by the end of the weekend as the main trough along the
coast ejects energy in the southwest flow. The GFS, in particularly,
uses this energy to develop a secondary low that tracks across
Montana Sunday night and Monday while the ECMWF keeps the core of
the trough firmly ensconced near the Oregon-California border. Have
increased the chance for precipitation during this time frame but
have not gone as cold as the GFS guidance suggests could be possible
for early next week. Model solutions begin to agree once again by
Wednesday as both models gradually strengthen the upper trough over
the southwestern US as ridging develops along the West Coast. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Showers should be moving out of the KLWT to KHVR area by shortly
after midnight however there could be some snow or possibly rain
showers over southwest Montana late tonight. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible in the valleys with snow showers. An
area of showers over Canada will move into north central Montana by
daybreak and again a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible with the showers. Showers will develop over the western and
southwestern mountains Wednesday afternoon and there could be
isolated showers in the valleys. More moisture will move into the
north Wednesday evening with a chance of MVFR conditions in light
snow or possibly rain. MVFR ceilings could become widespread over
north central Montana by late Wednesday evening. Over the plains
gusty westerly winds will continue through the rest of tonight and
then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and shift to a more
northwesterly direction. These winds will then continue into early
Wednesday evening before subsiding slightly by late evening.
Confidence in forecast winds is moderate. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  29  48  29 /  20  30  40  20
CTB  48  27  46  27 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  52  30  50  28 /  30  20  40  20
BZN  52  21  48  20 /  40  20  30  30
WEY  43  13  42   8 /  30  30  40  20
DLN  48  22  45  21 /  40  20  40  20
HVR  55  27  50  25 /  30  20  30  20
LWT  50  27  46  27 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT early this morning Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 010450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

As a cold front continues to move across the area this evening,
gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible. Have kept highest PoPs for areas east of I-15,
but these showers should taper after midnight. Strong westerly
downslope winds will keep areas along and adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front mainly dry though there is a slight chance for a
light shower or sprinkle. Wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain
possible for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and thus will
continue the High Wind Warning into Wednesday morning. Have
expired the Red Flag Warning as relative humidity continues to
increase. The remainder of the forecast is on track. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Showers should be moving out of the KLWT to KHVR area by shortly
after midnight however there could be some snow or possibly rain
showers over southwest Montana late tonight. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible in the valleys with snow showers. An
area of showers over Canada will move into northcentral Montana by
daybreak and again a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible with the showers. Showers will develop over the western and
southwestern mountains Wednesday afternoon and there could be
isolated showers in the valleys. More moisture will move into the
north Wednesday evening with a chance of MVFR conditions in light
snow or possibly rain. MVFR ceilings could become widespread over
northcentral Montana by late Wednesday evening. Over the plains
gusty westerly winds will continue through the rest of tonight and
then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and shift to a more
northwesterly direction. These winds will then continue into early
Wednesday evening before subsiding slightly by late evening.
Confidence in forecast winds is moderate. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  34  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  35  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  30  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  22  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  30  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  36  57  28  51 /  40  30  20  30
LWT  35  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 010450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

As a cold front continues to move across the area this evening,
gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible. Have kept highest PoPs for areas east of I-15,
but these showers should taper after midnight. Strong westerly
downslope winds will keep areas along and adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front mainly dry though there is a slight chance for a
light shower or sprinkle. Wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain
possible for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and thus will
continue the High Wind Warning into Wednesday morning. Have
expired the Red Flag Warning as relative humidity continues to
increase. The remainder of the forecast is on track. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Showers should be moving out of the KLWT to KHVR area by shortly
after midnight however there could be some snow or possibly rain
showers over southwest Montana late tonight. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible in the valleys with snow showers. An
area of showers over Canada will move into northcentral Montana by
daybreak and again a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible with the showers. Showers will develop over the western and
southwestern mountains Wednesday afternoon and there could be
isolated showers in the valleys. More moisture will move into the
north Wednesday evening with a chance of MVFR conditions in light
snow or possibly rain. MVFR ceilings could become widespread over
northcentral Montana by late Wednesday evening. Over the plains
gusty westerly winds will continue through the rest of tonight and
then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and shift to a more
northwesterly direction. These winds will then continue into early
Wednesday evening before subsiding slightly by late evening.
Confidence in forecast winds is moderate. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  34  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  35  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  30  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  22  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  30  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  36  57  28  51 /  40  30  20  30
LWT  35  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 010450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

As a cold front continues to move across the area this evening,
gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible. Have kept highest PoPs for areas east of I-15,
but these showers should taper after midnight. Strong westerly
downslope winds will keep areas along and adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front mainly dry though there is a slight chance for a
light shower or sprinkle. Wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain
possible for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and thus will
continue the High Wind Warning into Wednesday morning. Have
expired the Red Flag Warning as relative humidity continues to
increase. The remainder of the forecast is on track. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Showers should be moving out of the KLWT to KHVR area by shortly
after midnight however there could be some snow or possibly rain
showers over southwest Montana late tonight. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible in the valleys with snow showers. An
area of showers over Canada will move into northcentral Montana by
daybreak and again a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible with the showers. Showers will develop over the western and
southwestern mountains Wednesday afternoon and there could be
isolated showers in the valleys. More moisture will move into the
north Wednesday evening with a chance of MVFR conditions in light
snow or possibly rain. MVFR ceilings could become widespread over
northcentral Montana by late Wednesday evening. Over the plains
gusty westerly winds will continue through the rest of tonight and
then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and shift to a more
northwesterly direction. These winds will then continue into early
Wednesday evening before subsiding slightly by late evening.
Confidence in forecast winds is moderate. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  34  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  35  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  30  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  22  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  30  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  36  57  28  51 /  40  30  20  30
LWT  35  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 010450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

As a cold front continues to move across the area this evening,
gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible. Have kept highest PoPs for areas east of I-15,
but these showers should taper after midnight. Strong westerly
downslope winds will keep areas along and adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front mainly dry though there is a slight chance for a
light shower or sprinkle. Wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain
possible for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and thus will
continue the High Wind Warning into Wednesday morning. Have
expired the Red Flag Warning as relative humidity continues to
increase. The remainder of the forecast is on track. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Showers should be moving out of the KLWT to KHVR area by shortly
after midnight however there could be some snow or possibly rain
showers over southwest Montana late tonight. A brief period of MVFR
conditions will be possible in the valleys with snow showers. An
area of showers over Canada will move into northcentral Montana by
daybreak and again a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible with the showers. Showers will develop over the western and
southwestern mountains Wednesday afternoon and there could be
isolated showers in the valleys. More moisture will move into the
north Wednesday evening with a chance of MVFR conditions in light
snow or possibly rain. MVFR ceilings could become widespread over
northcentral Montana by late Wednesday evening. Over the plains
gusty westerly winds will continue through the rest of tonight and
then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and shift to a more
northwesterly direction. These winds will then continue into early
Wednesday evening before subsiding slightly by late evening.
Confidence in forecast winds is moderate. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  34  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  35  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  30  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  22  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  30  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  36  57  28  51 /  40  30  20  30
LWT  35  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 010310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...

As a cold front continues to move across the area this evening,
gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible. Have kept highest PoPs for areas east of I-15,
but these showers should taper after midnight. Strong westerly
downslope winds will keep areas along and adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front mainly dry though there is a slight chance for a
light shower or sprinkle. Wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain
possible for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and thus will
continue the High Wind Warning into Wednesday morning. Have
expired the Red Flag Warning as relative humidity continues to
increase. The remainder of the forecast is on track. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A weather system aloft will be moving through the forecast area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated cold front at the
beginning of the taf period will extend from Blaine County to near
KLWT and then to west of KBZN. The cold front will move out of the
forecast area by sunset. Meanwhile bands of showers will affect the
area near and and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KHLN this
evening. There still will be a threat of isolated thunderstorms
within these bands early this evening. Conditions should be VFR with
the showers. Another band of precipitation will affect southwest
Montana late tonight. Snow levels will have lowered enough that the
valleys will see primarily snow and with this snow there could be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow. A break in
precipitation is expected Wednesday morning before scattered showers
develop Wednesday afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will continue
through the night and then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and
shift to a more northwesterly direction. Confidence in forecast
winds is moderate except for gusty winds near showers. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  34  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  35  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  30  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  22  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  30  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  36  57  28  51 /  40  30  20  30
LWT  35  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 312356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A weather system aloft will be moving through the forecast area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated cold front at the
beginning of the taf period will extend from Blaine County to near
KLWT and then to west of KBZN. The cold front will move out of the
forecast area by sunset. Meanwhile bands of showers will affect the
area near and and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KHLN this
evening. There still will be a threat of isolated thunderstorms
within these bands early this evening. Conditions should be VFR with
the showers. Another band of precipitation will affect southwest
Montana late tonight. Snow levels will have lowered enough that the
valleys will see primarily snow and with this snow there could be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow. A break in
precipitation is expected Wednesday morning before scattered showers
develop Wednesday afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will continue
through the night and then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and
shift to a more northwesterly direction. Confidence in forecast
winds is moderate except for gusty winds near showers. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  33  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  34  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  28  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  20  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  28  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  35  57  28  51 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  34  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 312356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A weather system aloft will be moving through the forecast area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated cold front at the
beginning of the taf period will extend from Blaine County to near
KLWT and then to west of KBZN. The cold front will move out of the
forecast area by sunset. Meanwhile bands of showers will affect the
area near and and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KHLN this
evening. There still will be a threat of isolated thunderstorms
within these bands early this evening. Conditions should be VFR with
the showers. Another band of precipitation will affect southwest
Montana late tonight. Snow levels will have lowered enough that the
valleys will see primarily snow and with this snow there could be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow. A break in
precipitation is expected Wednesday morning before scattered showers
develop Wednesday afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will continue
through the night and then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and
shift to a more northwesterly direction. Confidence in forecast
winds is moderate except for gusty winds near showers. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  33  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  34  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  28  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  20  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  28  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  35  57  28  51 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  34  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 312356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A weather system aloft will be moving through the forecast area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated cold front at the
beginning of the taf period will extend from Blaine County to near
KLWT and then to west of KBZN. The cold front will move out of the
forecast area by sunset. Meanwhile bands of showers will affect the
area near and and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KHLN this
evening. There still will be a threat of isolated thunderstorms
within these bands early this evening. Conditions should be VFR with
the showers. Another band of precipitation will affect southwest
Montana late tonight. Snow levels will have lowered enough that the
valleys will see primarily snow and with this snow there could be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow. A break in
precipitation is expected Wednesday morning before scattered showers
develop Wednesday afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will continue
through the night and then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and
shift to a more northwesterly direction. Confidence in forecast
winds is moderate except for gusty winds near showers. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  33  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  34  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  28  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  20  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  28  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  35  57  28  51 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  34  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 312356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A weather system aloft will be moving through the forecast area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated cold front at the
beginning of the taf period will extend from Blaine County to near
KLWT and then to west of KBZN. The cold front will move out of the
forecast area by sunset. Meanwhile bands of showers will affect the
area near and and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KHLN this
evening. There still will be a threat of isolated thunderstorms
within these bands early this evening. Conditions should be VFR with
the showers. Another band of precipitation will affect southwest
Montana late tonight. Snow levels will have lowered enough that the
valleys will see primarily snow and with this snow there could be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow. A break in
precipitation is expected Wednesday morning before scattered showers
develop Wednesday afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will continue
through the night and then become stronger Wednesday afternoon and
shift to a more northwesterly direction. Confidence in forecast
winds is moderate except for gusty winds near showers. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  33  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  34  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  28  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  20  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  28  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  35  57  28  51 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  34  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 312049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...The air mass generally remains dry across
Central Montana and radar shows sparse, weak echoes west of the
divide. But moisture will increase during the night and some
mountain snow should develop. The cold air associated with the cold
front is still west of the zones and will be moving into the region
during the night. A much tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop as well. Will continue the high wind warning over the
Northern Rockies until winds weaken towards morning...and also the
Red Flag Warning until cooler temps and higher humidities return
this evening. Heights aloft will continue to drop through the night
as the trof and cooler air move into the region and flow aloft will
switch to the northwest over Central Montana. Biggest concern will
be western Beaverhead county where snow levels will be dropping and
road surfaces freezing at pass level. Snow accumulations will remain
marginal, however, and have decided against any highlights. The
upper level low will deepen over Alberta/Saskatchewan during the
night and this will in turn deepen the surface low over
Saskatchewan. Strong winds will result over the zones along with an
increasing chance for some wrap-around precipitation. Broad cyclonic
flow will continue over the zones and the air mass will be unsettled
and slightly unstable Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Scattered
showers will cover much of the region although totals will remain
low. By Wednesday night, a cold front associated with the surface
low in Canada should bring moisture across the Canadian border. The
northeastern zones will be the most affected but a deepening trof
over Nevada will keep a chance of precipitation across the central
and southwest zones as well. Temperatures will me much cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures in place
Thursday. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front moving across the Northern Rockies will push
east across North-Central and Southwest MT this afternoon. Westerly
surface winds will increase and gradually shift to NW as the
front passes later this afternoon and evening. Cloud-cover will
increase as well with showers and mtn obscurations becoming
widespread along the continental divide later this afternoon. Widely
scattered showers will redevelop east of the continental divide
later this afternoon and evening as the front progresses east and an
isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible in the vicinity of
KBZN and KLWT in association with the frontal passage. Drier and
more stable air moves into the region tonight from the NW behind the
front with showers lingering through late tonight over SW MT, mainly
south of line from KDLN to KBZN. Freezing level lowers to around
5000 feet or less tonight over SW MT and  a transition from rain to
snow showers is possible at KBZN with a period of MVFR conditions
possible before drier air moves in by early Wednesday morning. Gusty
west winds will persist through tonight and into the day on
Wednesday as surface low pressure deepens over the Canadian
Prairies. Hoenisch

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  53  30  49 /  20  20  30  40
CTB  33  50  27  47 /  10  20  30  30
HLN  34  52  30  50 /  40  30  20  40
BZN  28  51  22  49 /  60  40  20  30
WEY  20  43  10  42 /  30  30  30  40
DLN  28  48  22  46 /  40  40  20  40
HVR  35  57  28  51 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  34  51  28  46 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 311751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...A cold front will move through region today and begin a
period of cooling temperatures and windy conditions. A slight
chance for thunderstorms continues over the eastern zones this
afternoon. The high wind warning for the Northern Rockies will be
continued as well as the Red Flag Warning for potions of the
eastern zones. Updated to freshen winds, POPS and WX for the
first two periods. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front moving across the Northern Rockies will push
east across North-Central and Southwest MT this afternoon. Westerly
surface winds will increase and gradually shift to NW as the
front passes later this afternoon and evening. Cloud-cover will
increase as well with showers and mtn obscurations becoming
widespread along the continental divide later this afternoon. Widely
scattered showers will redevelop east of the continental divide
later this afternoon and evening as the front progresses east and an
isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible in the vicinity of
KBZN and KLWT in association with the frontal passage. Drier and
more stable air moves into the region tonight from the NW behind the
front with showers lingering through late tonight over SW MT, mainly
south of line from KDLN to KBZN. Freezing level lowers to around
5000 feet or less tonight over SW MT and  a transition from rain to
snow showers is possible at KBZN with a period of MVFR conditions
possible before drier air moves in by early Wednesday morning. Gusty
west winds will persist through tonight and into the day on
Wednesday as surface low pressure deepens over the Canadian
Prairies. Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 311751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...A cold front will move through region today and begin a
period of cooling temperatures and windy conditions. A slight
chance for thunderstorms continues over the eastern zones this
afternoon. The high wind warning for the Northern Rockies will be
continued as well as the Red Flag Warning for potions of the
eastern zones. Updated to freshen winds, POPS and WX for the
first two periods. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front moving across the Northern Rockies will push
east across North-Central and Southwest MT this afternoon. Westerly
surface winds will increase and gradually shift to NW as the
front passes later this afternoon and evening. Cloud-cover will
increase as well with showers and mtn obscurations becoming
widespread along the continental divide later this afternoon. Widely
scattered showers will redevelop east of the continental divide
later this afternoon and evening as the front progresses east and an
isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible in the vicinity of
KBZN and KLWT in association with the frontal passage. Drier and
more stable air moves into the region tonight from the NW behind the
front with showers lingering through late tonight over SW MT, mainly
south of line from KDLN to KBZN. Freezing level lowers to around
5000 feet or less tonight over SW MT and  a transition from rain to
snow showers is possible at KBZN with a period of MVFR conditions
possible before drier air moves in by early Wednesday morning. Gusty
west winds will persist through tonight and into the day on
Wednesday as surface low pressure deepens over the Canadian
Prairies. Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...A cold front will move through region today and begin a
period of cooling temperatures and windy conditions. A slight
chance for thunderstorms continues over the eastern zones this
afternoon. The high wind warning for the Northern Rockies will be
continued as well as the Red Flag Warning for potions of the
eastern zones. Updated to freshen winds, POPS and WX for the
first two periods. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front moving across the Northern Rockies will push
east across North-Central and Southwest MT this afternoon. Westerly
surface winds will increase and gradually shift to NW as the
front passes later this afternoon and evening. Cloud-cover will
increase as well with showers and mtn obscurations becoming
widespread along the continental divide later this afternoon. Widely
scattered showers will redevelop east of the continental divide
later this afternoon and evening as the front progresses east and an
isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible in the vicinity of
KBZN and KLWT in association with the frontal passage. Drier and
more stable air moves into the region tonight from the NW behind the
front with showers lingering through late tonight over SW MT, mainly
south of line from KDLN to KBZN. Freezing level lowers to around
5000 feet or less tonight over SW MT and  a transition from rain to
snow showers is possible at KBZN with a period of MVFR conditions
possible before drier air moves in by early Wednesday morning. Gusty
west winds will persist through tonight and into the day on
Wednesday as surface low pressure deepens over the Canadian
Prairies. Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening. The
combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty winds
and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast of
a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 311556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...A cold front will move through region today and begin a
period of cooling temperatures and windy conditions. A slight
chance for thunderstorms continues over the eastern zones this
afternoon. The high wind warning for the Northern Rockies will be
continued as well as the Red Flag Warning for potions of the
eastern zones. Updated to freshen winds, POPS and WX for the
first two periods. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after
15z. Increasing west winds will accompany the front with gusts in
excess of 50 kts possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
and in excess of 40 kts over the plains. Scattered showers will
develop behind the front and isolated thunderstorms are also
possible after 18z. Gusty winds and showers will continue beyond
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms, mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to
Havre. Winds will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as
the front passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening.
The combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty
winds and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast
of a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 311556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...A cold front will move through region today and begin a
period of cooling temperatures and windy conditions. A slight
chance for thunderstorms continues over the eastern zones this
afternoon. The high wind warning for the Northern Rockies will be
continued as well as the Red Flag Warning for potions of the
eastern zones. Updated to freshen winds, POPS and WX for the
first two periods. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after
15z. Increasing west winds will accompany the front with gusts in
excess of 50 kts possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
and in excess of 40 kts over the plains. Scattered showers will
develop behind the front and isolated thunderstorms are also
possible after 18z. Gusty winds and showers will continue beyond
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms, mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to
Havre. Winds will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as
the front passes with slow improvement in humidity late this evening.
The combination of very warm and dry conditions along with gusty
winds and potential for isolated lightning will create a period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening and a
red flag warning has been issued for the area near and southeast
of a line from Havre to Great Falls to Helena.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 311150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after
15z. Increasing west winds will accompany the front with gusts in
excess of 50 kts possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
and in excess of 40 kts over the plains. Scattered showers will
develop behind the front and isolated thunderstorms are also
possible after 18z. Gusty winds and showers will continue beyond
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 311150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after
15z. Increasing west winds will accompany the front with gusts in
excess of 50 kts possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
and in excess of 40 kts over the plains. Scattered showers will
develop behind the front and isolated thunderstorms are also
possible after 18z. Gusty winds and showers will continue beyond
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after
15z. Increasing west winds will accompany the front with gusts in
excess of 50 kts possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
and in excess of 40 kts over the plains. Scattered showers will
develop behind the front and isolated thunderstorms are also
possible after 18z. Gusty winds and showers will continue beyond
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311150
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage, however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front passes, temperatures
will drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves move over the area and bring additional
rounds of precipitation. While none of the next impulses will bring
widespread precipitation, have gone with more climatological pops
due to the enhanced chance of showers with these systems through
Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after
15z. Increasing west winds will accompany the front with gusts in
excess of 50 kts possible along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
and in excess of 40 kts over the plains. Scattered showers will
develop behind the front and isolated thunderstorms are also
possible after 18z. Gusty winds and showers will continue beyond
00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 310948
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
348 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage...however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front temperatures will
drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves will move over the area and bring
additional rounds of precipitation. While none of the next
impulses will bring widespread precipitation have gone with more
climatological pops due to the enhanced chance of showers with
these systems through Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 310948
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
348 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage...however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front temperatures will
drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves will move over the area and bring
additional rounds of precipitation. While none of the next
impulses will bring widespread precipitation have gone with more
climatological pops due to the enhanced chance of showers with
these systems through Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 310948
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
348 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
today before a cold front moves across the area this afternoon. A
high wind warning is in effect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central
Montana. Both events are due to the conditions ahead of the cold
front that will include strong gusty winds and above average
temperatures. Precipitation will be limited with the frontal
passage...however some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop with frontal passage. After the front temperatures will
drop back to seasonal values and will continue that way as
additional weak shortwaves will move over the area and bring
additional rounds of precipitation. While none of the next
impulses will bring widespread precipitation have gone with more
climatological pops due to the enhanced chance of showers with
these systems through Thursday. Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...The medium range period begins with
an upper ridge over the western U.S. and moist and unstable
northwest flow aloft over the area. Shortwave energy moving within
this flow aloft will bring scattered showers to the mountains and
isolated showers across the plains Thursday night. The upper ridge
axis crosses the Continental Divide Friday allowing the airmass to
dry. The ridge flattens on Saturday with the flow aloft becoming
zonal. Precipitation will be confined to the western and southwest
mountains while the plains remain dry. A deepening upper trof moves
over the Pacific Northwest Easter Sunday. The resulting southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area with
scattered showers developing Sunday morning over southwest Montana
and then spreading north and east. A broad upper trof remains over
the area Monday and Tuesday continuing the possibility of scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  35  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
CTB  63  33  49  28 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  68  34  52  30 /  20  40  30  20
BZN  73  28  52  22 /  30  60  40  20
WEY  61  19  43   7 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  68  27  47  22 /  20  50  40  20
HVR  73  34  55  28 /  20  30  40  20
LWT  76  33  50  29 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith
Basin...Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 310428
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The
forecast is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 310428
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The
forecast is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 310428
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The
forecast is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 310428
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The
forecast is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs. Would
not be surprised if winds are even stronger than what is in the tafs
for a brief time during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and very isolated thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Then in the
evening a band of showers will spread from southwest Montana to
central Montana. Again think VFR conditions will be associated with
them. Gusty winds westerly winds will continue into the evening with
little if any drop in wind speeds. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 310249
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The forecast
is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 310249
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The forecast
is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 310249
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The forecast
is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 310249
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
A ridge of high pressure remains across the region. Dry air
associated with the ridge will continue the mostly clear skies.
Winds have died down and should remain in the current range
overnight most areas - before increasing again on Tuesday. The forecast
is on target so no update tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon associated with  a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning will
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening and a red flag warning has been issued for the
area near and southeast of a line from Havre to Great Falls to
Helena. Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 302349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon associated with  a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning will
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening and a red flag warning has been issued for the
area near and southeast of a line from Havre to Great Falls to
Helena. Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 302349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon associated with  a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning will
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening and a red flag warning has been issued for the
area near and southeast of a line from Havre to Great Falls to
Helena. Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 302349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
548 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2348Z.
Expect ceilings above 15000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning. The
main weather feature affecting the tafs will be a cold front which
will move into KCTB around 16z..KHLN and KGTF around 19z..KBZN and
KHVR around 21z..and KLWT around 22z. Gusty westerly winds will
develop behind the front and winds will be especially gusty over the
northwest plains where gusts could reach 55 kts. Have fair
confidence in frontal timing and forecast winds in the tafs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon mainly near and southeast of a line from KHVR to KGTF to
KHLN. Conditions should remain VFR in the showers and thunderstorms
but wind gusts to 40 kts could be associated with them. Blank

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon associated with  a
cold front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning will
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening and a red flag warning has been issued for the
area near and southeast of a line from Havre to Great Falls to
Helena. Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 302049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will
maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Surface winds will become
somewhat gusty this afternoon across the north-central MT Plains.
Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning could
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will
maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Surface winds will become
somewhat gusty this afternoon across the north-central MT Plains.
Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning could
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 302049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Satellite indicates our next low
pressure trof currently approaching the West Coast. Jet associate
with the trof will push across the Rockies Tuesday morning and keep
winds behind the cold front strong...mid-level winds will strengthen
as this system moves east tonight and these winds will remain near
40kts through Wednesday. The front associated with this low pressure
system will cross the Rockies early Tuesday, 6-9am, and move through
Havre, Lewistown, and Bozeman during the afternoon. The air mass
will destabilize tonight and Tuesday as heights fall ahead of this
system. East and southwest portions of the CWA will become the most
unstable and a chance of thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon. The low pressure center will move into Saskatchewan and
the surface pressure gradient to the southwest will remain very
tight late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Especially strong winds are
expected northeastern zones. The combination of possible lightning
strikes and strong wind will create fire weather concerns and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern zones. Wednesday begins a period of broad cyclonic flow
aloft and a cool, unsettled air mass which will keep showers in the
forecast through the day. Temperatures will be much cooler and
generally remain near or below seasonal normals. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will
maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Surface winds will become
somewhat gusty this afternoon across the north-central MT Plains.
Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning could
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  35  52 /   0  20  40  40
CTB  42  62  33  49 /   0  20  30  30
HLN  40  69  33  52 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  35  74  28  51 /   0  30  60  40
WEY  29  61  20  44 /   0  20  60  30
DLN  40  70  28  48 /   0  20  50  40
HVR  36  73  34  55 /   0  20  30  40
LWT  41  75  34  50 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Madison...Meagher.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301733
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will continue over the zones today and the
region will remain dry with temps above normals. Surface winds will
become gusty this afternoon with afternoon heating but strong winds
are not expected. Updated to freshen sky cover and wind. Also added
thunderstorms to eastern portions of CWA Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will
maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Surface winds will become
somewhat gusty this afternoon across the north-central MT Plains.
Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning could
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
conditions going forward with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  71  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  62  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  68  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  74  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  61  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  70  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  75  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301733
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will continue over the zones today and the
region will remain dry with temps above normals. Surface winds will
become gusty this afternoon with afternoon heating but strong winds
are not expected. Updated to freshen sky cover and wind. Also added
thunderstorms to eastern portions of CWA Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will
maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Surface winds will become
somewhat gusty this afternoon across the north-central MT Plains.
Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning could
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
conditions going forward with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  71  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  62  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  68  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  74  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  61  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  70  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  75  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301733
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will continue over the zones today and the
region will remain dry with temps above normals. Surface winds will
become gusty this afternoon with afternoon heating but strong winds
are not expected. Updated to freshen sky cover and wind. Also added
thunderstorms to eastern portions of CWA Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will
maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Surface winds will become
somewhat gusty this afternoon across the north-central MT Plains.
Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west
to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold
front. In addition, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Winds
will shift to the West-Northwest and remain gusty as the front
passes Tuesday evening with slow improvement in humidity late
Tuesday evening. The combination of very warm and dry conditions
along with gusty winds and potential for isolated lightning could
create a period of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
conditions going forward with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  71  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  62  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  68  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  74  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  61  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  70  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  75  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301617
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1017 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will continue over the zones today and the
region will remain dry with temps above normals. Surface winds will
become gusty this afternoon with afternoon heating but strong winds
are not expected. Updated to freshen sky cover and wind. Also added
thundertorms to eastern portions of CWA Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  71  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  62  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  68  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  74  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  61  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  70  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  75  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301617
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1017 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will continue over the zones today and the
region will remain dry with temps above normals. Surface winds will
become gusty this afternoon with afternoon heating but strong winds
are not expected. Updated to freshen sky cover and wind. Also added
thundertorms to eastern portions of CWA Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  71  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  62  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  68  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  74  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  61  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  70  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  75  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300953
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
353 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
VFR conditions will occur. Ceilings at or above 15000 ft will
become clear skies from the west after midnight. Monday afternoon
skies will range from clear to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will redevelop Monday afternoon with
speeds of 15 to 25 kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday
afternoon speeds will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to
45 kts. Winds will subside Monday evening. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 300953
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
353 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
VFR conditions will occur. Ceilings at or above 15000 ft will
become clear skies from the west after midnight. Monday afternoon
skies will range from clear to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will redevelop Monday afternoon with
speeds of 15 to 25 kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday
afternoon speeds will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to
45 kts. Winds will subside Monday evening. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 300426
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
Not much need for an update this evening. The winds are the
biggest problem, but they are slowly trending downward. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
VFR conditions will occur. Ceilings at or above 15000 ft will
become clear skies from the west after midnight. Monday afternoon
skies will range from clear to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will redevelop Monday afternoon with
speeds of 15 to 25 kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday
afternoon speeds will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to
45 kts. Winds will subside Monday evening. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 300426
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
Not much need for an update this evening. The winds are the
biggest problem, but they are slowly trending downward. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
VFR conditions will occur. Ceilings at or above 15000 ft will
become clear skies from the west after midnight. Monday afternoon
skies will range from clear to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will redevelop Monday afternoon with
speeds of 15 to 25 kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday
afternoon speeds will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to
45 kts. Winds will subside Monday evening. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300308
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
908 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Not much need for an update this evening. The winds are the
biggest problem, but they are slowly trending downward. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions are likely. Other than scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 14000 ft over southwest Montana early this evening
ceilings will be at or above 15000 ft. Then late tonight into Monday
morning look clear skies will develop. During the afternoon skies
will range from clear skies to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish over the east slopes
this evening then redevelop Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday afternoon speeds
will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 300308
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
908 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Not much need for an update this evening. The winds are the
biggest problem, but they are slowly trending downward. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions are likely. Other than scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 14000 ft over southwest Montana early this evening
ceilings will be at or above 15000 ft. Then late tonight into Monday
morning look clear skies will develop. During the afternoon skies
will range from clear skies to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish over the east slopes
this evening then redevelop Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday afternoon speeds
will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292336
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions are likely. Other than scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 14000 ft over southwest Montana early this evening
ceilings will be at or above 15000 ft. Then late tonight into Monday
morning look clear skies will develop. During the afternoon skies
will range from clear skies to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish over the east slopes
this evening then redevelop Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday afternoon speeds
will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 292336
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions are likely. Other than scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 14000 ft over southwest Montana early this evening
ceilings will be at or above 15000 ft. Then late tonight into Monday
morning look clear skies will develop. During the afternoon skies
will range from clear skies to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish over the east slopes
this evening then redevelop Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday afternoon speeds
will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 292336
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions are likely. Other than scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 14000 ft over southwest Montana early this evening
ceilings will be at or above 15000 ft. Then late tonight into Monday
morning look clear skies will develop. During the afternoon skies
will range from clear skies to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish over the east slopes
this evening then redevelop Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday afternoon speeds
will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 292336
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions are likely. Other than scattered to broken clouds
from 12000 to 14000 ft over southwest Montana early this evening
ceilings will be at or above 15000 ft. Then late tonight into Monday
morning look clear skies will develop. During the afternoon skies
will range from clear skies to scattered clouds between 12000 and
14000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish over the east slopes
this evening then redevelop Monday afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
kts. However over the Rocky Mountain Front Monday afternoon speeds
will be in the range of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 292043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 292043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast. High level moisture associated with a shortwave
moving over the top of the ridge has been moving across the Rockies
but lower levels will remain dry. However, this shortwave will keep
a surface pressure trof in place over Alberta and keep breezy
conditions across the slopes of the Rockies through the night. The
ridge will be over the Rockies Monday and a low pressure trof will
approach the West Coast Monday night and move on shore Tuesday.
Winds aloft will strengthen as the shortwave approaches but not much
support for damaging winds except over the Northern Rockies. With
the ridge moving east of the zones Monday night, heights aloft will
be dropping and the air mass will destabilize. The approaching
shortwave has been slowed by the models over the past two days and
this slower movement will allow daytime heating ahead of the front
to further increase instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Zelzer

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  70  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  42  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  41  70  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  32  70  36  71 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  25  57  29  60 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  36  68  39  68 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  69  37  72 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...

Today...Update to zones not planned...A high pressure ridge is aloft
although a shortwave is moving into the ridge. This will increase
high level cloudiness during the day as well as keep a surface
pressure gradient in place along the Rockies and continued breezy
conditions. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 291732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...

Today...Update to zones not planned...A high pressure ridge is aloft
although a shortwave is moving into the ridge. This will increase
high level cloudiness during the day as well as keep a surface
pressure gradient in place along the Rockies and continued breezy
conditions. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...

Today...Update to zones not planned...A high pressure ridge is aloft
although a shortwave is moving into the ridge. This will increase
high level cloudiness during the day as well as keep a surface
pressure gradient in place along the Rockies and continued breezy
conditions. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 291732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...

Today...Update to zones not planned...A high pressure ridge is aloft
although a shortwave is moving into the ridge. This will increase
high level cloudiness during the day as well as keep a surface
pressure gradient in place along the Rockies and continued breezy
conditions. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains today. Wind gusts at KCTB/KGTF of
up to 30 kts are possible with gusts 20 to 25 kts at KHVR/KLWT. Wind
gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible at KHLN and winds will remain
light and variable at KBZN. Infrared satellite shows a Chinook Arch
developing on the lee side of the Rockies which will yield partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist with mainly dry conditions also
expected. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291523
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
923 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...Update to zones not planned...A high pressure ridge is aloft
although a shortwave is moving into the ridge. This will increase
high level cloudiness during the day as well as keep a surface
pressure gradient in place along the Rockies and continued breezy
conditions. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
persist across the high plains throughout the day with some gusty
winds possible at all locations during mid afternoon. No
significant weather hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291523
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
923 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...Update to zones not planned...A high pressure ridge is aloft
although a shortwave is moving into the ridge. This will increase
high level cloudiness during the day as well as keep a surface
pressure gradient in place along the Rockies and continued breezy
conditions. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
persist across the high plains throughout the day with some gusty
winds possible at all locations during mid afternoon. No
significant weather hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
persist across the high plains throughout the day with some gusty
winds possible at all locations during mid afternoon. No
significant weather hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
persist across the high plains throughout the day with some gusty
winds possible at all locations during mid afternoon. No
significant weather hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 291149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
persist across the high plains throughout the day with some gusty
winds possible at all locations during mid afternoon. No
significant weather hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









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