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000
FXUS65 KTFX 020443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 020443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 020259
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 020259
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 012254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 012252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 012252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 012039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Expect a passing light rain shower over the Rocky Mountain Front and
the northern Plains today...but these showers should not impact the
main terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period...with generally mid/high level clouds expected. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Expect a passing light rain shower over the Rocky Mountain Front and
the northern Plains today...but these showers should not impact the
main terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period...with generally mid/high level clouds expected. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Aviation Section Updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Expect a passing light rain shower over the Rocky Mountain Front and
the northern Plains today...but these showers should not impact the
main terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period...with generally mid/high level clouds expected. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 011000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 010451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
Current forecast overall looks in pretty good but did make some
minor changes to the chances of precipitation and sky cover. Also
restricted the mention of thunder for the rest of this evening to
near and southeast of a line from Bozeman to Monida Pass. Also
8 pm instability charts indicate that a thunderstorm would not be
out of the question across a portion of northcentral Montana. Also
changed the forecast for Wednesday near Glacier Park so see
updated discussion for that period below. Blank


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Inherited
forecast precipitation amounts for the Glacier Park area looked
on the low side compared to those forecast by the models so
updated the forecast to increase them but did not go as high as
some models forecast. Inherited forecast snow levels of
around 7500 feet look OK so left them alone. Came up with snow
accumulations of around 2 to 4 inches above 8000 feet for the park
but some models were forecasting amounts of as much as near a
foot. Will need to watch this situation closely because should
snow levels drop lower and models continue to forecast snow
amounts of 6 inches to a foot a winter weather highlight might be
needed. By early Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast
area as mid/upper ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest.
Did go ahead and lower PoPs from Thursday night through the
weekend given lack of moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent.
High temps Wed/Thurs will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over
the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s at lower elevations.
Temps begin to moderate back toward climo next weekend.
Blank/Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 010451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
Current forecast overall looks in pretty good but did make some
minor changes to the chances of precipitation and sky cover. Also
restricted the mention of thunder for the rest of this evening to
near and southeast of a line from Bozeman to Monida Pass. Also
8 pm instability charts indicate that a thunderstorm would not be
out of the question across a portion of northcentral Montana. Also
changed the forecast for Wednesday near Glacier Park so see
updated discussion for that period below. Blank


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Inherited
forecast precipitation amounts for the Glacier Park area looked
on the low side compared to those forecast by the models so
updated the forecast to increase them but did not go as high as
some models forecast. Inherited forecast snow levels of
around 7500 feet look OK so left them alone. Came up with snow
accumulations of around 2 to 4 inches above 8000 feet for the park
but some models were forecasting amounts of as much as near a
foot. Will need to watch this situation closely because should
snow levels drop lower and models continue to forecast snow
amounts of 6 inches to a foot a winter weather highlight might be
needed. By early Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast
area as mid/upper ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest.
Did go ahead and lower PoPs from Thursday night through the
weekend given lack of moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent.
High temps Wed/Thurs will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over
the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s at lower elevations.
Temps begin to moderate back toward climo next weekend.
Blank/Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 010312
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
912 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast overall looks in pretty good but did make some
minor changes to the chances of precipitation and sky cover. Also
restricted the mention of thunder for the rest of this evening to
near and southeast of a line from Bozeman to Monida Pass. Also
8 pm instability charts indicate that a thunderstorm would not be
out of the question across a portion of northcentral Montana. Also
changed the forecast for Wednesday near Glacier Park so see
updated discussion for that period below. Blank


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
this evening before diminishing after sunset across the forecast
area as upper-level trough continues to push east. Breezy westerly
winds will also decrease after sunset. Though drier conditions are
expected overnight, scattered to broken cloud cover with some
mountain obscuration will continue under moist northwest flow aloft.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Monday. VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, however a brief intrusion of
MVFR conditions is possible in and near showers/thunderstorms. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Inherited
forecast precipitation amounts for the Glacier Park area looked
on the low side compared to those forecast by the models so
updated the forecast to increase them but did not go as high as
some models forecast. Inherited forecast snow levels of
around 7500 feet look OK so left them alone. Came up with snow
accumulations of around 2 to 4 inches above 8000 feet for the park
but some models were forecasting amounts of as much as near a
foot. Will need to watch this situation closely because should
snow levels drop lower and models continue to forecast snow
amounts of 6 inches to a foot a winter weather highlight might be
needed. By early Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast
area as mid/upper ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest.
Did go ahead and lower PoPs from Thursday night through the
weekend given lack of moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent.
High temps Wed/Thurs will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over
the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s at lower elevations.
Temps begin to moderate back toward climo next weekend.
Blank/Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 010312
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
912 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast overall looks in pretty good but did make some
minor changes to the chances of precipitation and sky cover. Also
restricted the mention of thunder for the rest of this evening to
near and southeast of a line from Bozeman to Monida Pass. Also
8 pm instability charts indicate that a thunderstorm would not be
out of the question across a portion of northcentral Montana. Also
changed the forecast for Wednesday near Glacier Park so see
updated discussion for that period below. Blank


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
this evening before diminishing after sunset across the forecast
area as upper-level trough continues to push east. Breezy westerly
winds will also decrease after sunset. Though drier conditions are
expected overnight, scattered to broken cloud cover with some
mountain obscuration will continue under moist northwest flow aloft.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Monday. VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, however a brief intrusion of
MVFR conditions is possible in and near showers/thunderstorms. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Inherited
forecast precipitation amounts for the Glacier Park area looked
on the low side compared to those forecast by the models so
updated the forecast to increase them but did not go as high as
some models forecast. Inherited forecast snow levels of
around 7500 feet look OK so left them alone. Came up with snow
accumulations of around 2 to 4 inches above 8000 feet for the park
but some models were forecasting amounts of as much as near a
foot. Will need to watch this situation closely because should
snow levels drop lower and models continue to forecast snow
amounts of 6 inches to a foot a winter weather highlight might be
needed. By early Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast
area as mid/upper ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest.
Did go ahead and lower PoPs from Thursday night through the
weekend given lack of moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent.
High temps Wed/Thurs will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over
the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s at lower elevations.
Temps begin to moderate back toward climo next weekend.
Blank/Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 312320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Should current
forecast guidance pan out...one-quarter to one-half inch of moisture
appears possible over the Glacier National Park area with a few
tenths possible elsewhere along the Hi-Line. By early
Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast area as mid/upper
ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest. Did go ahead and
lower PoPs from Thursday night through the weekend given lack of
moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent. High temps Wed/Thurs
will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over the higher terrain to
the low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Temps begin to moderate back
toward climo next weekend. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
this evening before diminishing after sunset across the forecast
area as upper-level trough continues to push east. Breezy westerly
winds will also decrease after sunset. Though drier conditions are
expected overnight, scattered to broken cloud cover with some
mountain obscuration will continue under moist northwest flow aloft.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Monday. VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, however a brief intrusion of
MVFR conditions is possible in and near showers/thunderstorms. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 312320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Should current
forecast guidance pan out...one-quarter to one-half inch of moisture
appears possible over the Glacier National Park area with a few
tenths possible elsewhere along the Hi-Line. By early
Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast area as mid/upper
ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest. Did go ahead and
lower PoPs from Thursday night through the weekend given lack of
moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent. High temps Wed/Thurs
will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over the higher terrain to
the low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Temps begin to moderate back
toward climo next weekend. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
this evening before diminishing after sunset across the forecast
area as upper-level trough continues to push east. Breezy westerly
winds will also decrease after sunset. Though drier conditions are
expected overnight, scattered to broken cloud cover with some
mountain obscuration will continue under moist northwest flow aloft.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Monday. VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, however a brief intrusion of
MVFR conditions is possible in and near showers/thunderstorms. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 312030
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Should current
forecast guidance pan out...one-quarter to one-half inch of moisture
appears possible over the Glacier National Park area with a few
tenths possible elsewhere along the Hi-Line. By early
Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast area as mid/upper
ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest. Did go ahead and
lower PoPs from Thursday night through the weekend given lack of
moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent. High temps Wed/Thurs
will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over the higher terrain to
the low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Temps begin to moderate back
toward climo next weekend. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof is over Central Montana and
keeping the region unsettled. This trof will slowly move east and
conditions will stabilize during the night. Southwest Montana will
be slightly unstable through the early evening but the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will diminish quickly during the evening.
Conditions are not as unstable farther north and although isolated
showers are possible until early evening. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 312030
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday night through Tuesday...The broad upper level low pressure
trof that has been affecting the region for the past few days is
slowly moving east. Heights will rise slowly although the northwest
flow aloft will continue to be rather unsettled through the night.
The trend, however, is towards a more stable air mass. Flow aloft
will strengthen over the Rockies early Monday and spread east during
the day. Brisk winds will develop along the Rockies and adjacent
plains but remain well below warning criteria. The region will
remain dry Tuesday as a flat, high pressure ridge will be over
Montana ahead of the next low pressure system to the west. Temps
will remain a bit below normals Monday until warming again
Tuesday. Zelzer

Tuesday night through Sunday...12z deterministic guidance came into
better alignment regarding a broad trough sweeping across the
forecast area early Wednesday. As the trough and associated surface
cold front pass...precip chances will increase primarily over the
Hi-Line and Rocky Mountain Front where the best combination of
forcing for ascent and moisture will be located. Should current
forecast guidance pan out...one-quarter to one-half inch of moisture
appears possible over the Glacier National Park area with a few
tenths possible elsewhere along the Hi-Line. By early
Friday...trough axis shifts east of the forecast area as mid/upper
ridging builds in across the Pacific Northwest. Did go ahead and
lower PoPs from Thursday night through the weekend given lack of
moisture and broadscale forcing for ascent. High temps Wed/Thurs
will range from the mid 40s to around 50 over the higher terrain to
the low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Temps begin to moderate back
toward climo next weekend. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof is over Central Montana and
keeping the region unsettled. This trof will slowly move east and
conditions will stabilize during the night. Southwest Montana will
be slightly unstable through the early evening but the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will diminish quickly during the evening.
Conditions are not as unstable farther north and although isolated
showers are possible until early evening. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  70  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  68  46  72 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  47  71  47  79 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  66  42  77 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  58  32  65 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  44  66  42  76 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  48  74  49  77 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  47  67  47  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 311729
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A broad upper level trof is slowly moving east. The air mass
remains unsettled under the influence of this trof although
instability will remain weak. Strongest instability will be over
Southwest Montana where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Farther to the north, the air mass is nearly stable and
isolated to scattered showers are expected. Updated to freshen
winds, pops, and wx. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof is over Central Montana and
keeping the region unsettled. This trof will slowly move east and
conditions will stabilize during the night. Southwest Montana will
be slightly unstable through the early evening but the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will diminish quickly during the evening.
Conditions are not as unstable farther north and although isolated
showers are possible until early evening. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more in line with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  30  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 311729
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A broad upper level trof is slowly moving east. The air mass
remains unsettled under the influence of this trof although
instability will remain weak. Strongest instability will be over
Southwest Montana where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Farther to the north, the air mass is nearly stable and
isolated to scattered showers are expected. Updated to freshen
winds, pops, and wx. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof is over Central Montana and
keeping the region unsettled. This trof will slowly move east and
conditions will stabilize during the night. Southwest Montana will
be slightly unstable through the early evening but the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will diminish quickly during the evening.
Conditions are not as unstable farther north and although isolated
showers are possible until early evening. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more in line with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  30  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A broad upper level trof is slowly moving east. The air mass
remains unsettled under the influence of this trof although
instability will remain weak. Strongest instability will be over
Southwest Montana where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Farther to the north, the air mass is nearly stable and
isolated to scattered showers are expected. Updated to freshen
winds, pops, and wx. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Weak upper-level trof will continue to track eastward across MT
today, generating widespread BKN-OVC conditions with ceilings
generally at/above 6000-8000 ft. Isolated -SHRA beginning to develop
east of the Continental Divide may reach KHLN/KBZN this morning, but
showers should hold off at remaining TAF sites until this aftn.
Expect only scattered precipitation coverage with predominantly VFR
conditions through this evening, then showers will dissipate with
gradually decreasing cloud cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more in line with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  30  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 311536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A broad upper level trof is slowly moving east. The air mass
remains unsettled under the influence of this trof although
instability will remain weak. Strongest instability will be over
Southwest Montana where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Farther to the north, the air mass is nearly stable and
isolated to scattered showers are expected. Updated to freshen
winds, pops, and wx. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Weak upper-level trof will continue to track eastward across MT
today, generating widespread BKN-OVC conditions with ceilings
generally at/above 6000-8000 ft. Isolated -SHRA beginning to develop
east of the Continental Divide may reach KHLN/KBZN this morning, but
showers should hold off at remaining TAF sites until this aftn.
Expect only scattered precipitation coverage with predominantly VFR
conditions through this evening, then showers will dissipate with
gradually decreasing cloud cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014/
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more in line with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  30  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 311133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more in line with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Weak upper-level trof will continue to track eastward across MT
today, generating widespread BKN-OVC conditions with ceilings
generally at/above 6000-8000 ft. Isolated -SHRA beginning to develop
east of the Continental Divide may reach KHLN/KBZN this morning, but
showers should hold off at remaining TAF sites until this aftn.
Expect only scattered precipitation coverage with predominantly VFR
conditions through this evening, then showers will dissipate with
gradually decreasing cloud cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 311133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more in line with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Weak upper-level trof will continue to track eastward across MT
today, generating widespread BKN-OVC conditions with ceilings
generally at/above 6000-8000 ft. Isolated -SHRA beginning to develop
east of the Continental Divide may reach KHLN/KBZN this morning, but
showers should hold off at remaining TAF sites until this aftn.
Expect only scattered precipitation coverage with predominantly VFR
conditions through this evening, then showers will dissipate with
gradually decreasing cloud cover.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 311023
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
423 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PRIMARILY SW MT AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A FLATTEN RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION.
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE IDEA OF AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY SPARSE FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST.

THERE STILL ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
AFTER FRIDAY SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS WITH A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. JK



&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. CURRENT
RADAR TO THE WEST SHOW SHOWERS AND HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE THESE SHOWERS PASSING THIS MORNING BUT ALSO KEEP
SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER DUE TO A MIX OF CHINOOK NEAR GLACIER AND IN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY IF
NOT CLOUDY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERCOME THIS AND
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SO THESE REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PLAINS.


&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSGREATFALLS
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GREATFALLS.GOV




000
FXUS65 KTFX 311023
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
423 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PRIMARILY SW MT AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A FLATTEN RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION.
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE IDEA OF AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY SPARSE FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST.

THERE STILL ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
AFTER FRIDAY SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS WITH A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. JK



&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. CURRENT
RADAR TO THE WEST SHOW SHOWERS AND HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE THESE SHOWERS PASSING THIS MORNING BUT ALSO KEEP
SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER DUE TO A MIX OF CHINOOK NEAR GLACIER AND IN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY IF
NOT CLOUDY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERCOME THIS AND
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SO THESE REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PLAINS.


&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSGREATFALLS
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GREATFALLS.GOV





000
FXUS65 KTFX 311016
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
416 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more inline with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Showers will persist across southwest Montana tonight including KBZN
and KLWT as another weak shortwave moves over the area. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions are possible in the vicinity of showers
and mountains will remain obscured. The remainder of the area will
remain dry and mostly cloudy overnight. As another shortwave moves
over central Montana on Sunday, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible once again but forecast confidence is low
regarding the coverage of these showers. Have added VCSH for all TAF
sites between 15z and 00z as forecast models suggest that
precipitation should end by early Sunday evening. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 311016
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
416 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...A low pressure trough covers much of western
U.S. today keeping a northwest flow aloft over north-central and
southwest Montana. An embedded weather system that pushed through
Saturday afternoon and evening is exiting to the east this morning.
There are several other smaller weather systems embedded in the flow
that will be pushing through today and tonight, however at this time
it appears that these are generally weak, and available moisture
is relatively limited. As a result, they are expected to trigger
only isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from southwest to
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Once these systems
get past, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday. As the flow aloft remains from the northwest,
temperatures will continue to run near to a few degrees below
seasonal normals.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Current forecast models solutions
showing some slight improvement over continuity/agreement issues
discussed here yesterday, but significant differences still exist
that affect latest outlooks for latter half of next week.  Period
begins with dry conditions for most of the forecast area on Wed,
except for scattered light rain showers over parts of the Hiline
counties on Wed aftn/eve as the northern portion of an upper-level
trof and surface cold front moves through central MT.  Meanwhile the
southern part of the upper trof splits off and extends through OR/WA
to the California coast.  Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof
axis begins to bring in a plume of monsoonal moisture on Thurs, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected over southwest
MT. The GFS model solution, which yesterday indicated widespread
precipitation with some rainfall values in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range
for Thurs through Sat, now shows much less precip coverage and <0.10
inch of rainfall, which is more inline with the drier ECMWF
solutions from both yesterday and today. However, the models vary
widely on the predominant weather pattern for next weekend, with
pronounced high pressure ridging on the ECMWF, while the GFS deepens
the trof along the Pacific coast and develops a cut-off low pressure
center over northern California.  Some moisture moving through the
trof may generate scattered showers over the southwest counties. So,
like yesterday, confidence is low in any particular model solution
and used a blend of climatological PoPs to cover any slight chances
of rainfall.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Showers will persist across southwest Montana tonight including KBZN
and KLWT as another weak shortwave moves over the area. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions are possible in the vicinity of showers
and mountains will remain obscured. The remainder of the area will
remain dry and mostly cloudy overnight. As another shortwave moves
over central Montana on Sunday, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible once again but forecast confidence is low
regarding the coverage of these showers. Have added VCSH for all TAF
sites between 15z and 00z as forecast models suggest that
precipitation should end by early Sunday evening. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  47  69  48 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  66  46  68  47 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  70  46  71  47 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  65  42  67  41 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  55  32  58  31 /  40  30  20  10
DLN  63  44  66  42 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  74  48  73  49 /  10  20  20  10
LWT  68  47  67  47 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 310455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1054 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
Expect at least scattered showers to continue the rest of tonight
over southwest Montana. Satellite imagery showed a weather
disturbance aloft near the eastern Oregon border at mid-evening.
This disturbance will continue moving to the east/southeast so
even though it might weaken a little still expect some
precipitation over southwest Montana later this evening/overnight.
Radar not showing much over north central Montana so dropped the
mention of showers/thunderstorms for the rest of this evening.
Also dropped the mention of thunderstorms over central Montana as
seeing little if any instability. For sky cover..satellite imagery
showed Chinook arch cloudiness over the east slopes so increased
sky cover in that area. Expect this cloudiness to continue after
midnight in that area so changed the forecast from partly cloudy
to mostly cloudy. Most of the area should be mostly cloudy if not
cloudy the rest of tonight so increased low temperatures slightly
for Sunday morning. Models are generally forecasting light
precipitation over the plains for Sunday afternoon. There will be
weak low level downslope but think forecast instability should
overcome this and result in at least isolated
showers/thunderstorms so added this to the forecast for a good
chunk of the plains. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Showers will persist across southwest Montana tonight including KBZN
and KLWT as another weak shortwave moves over the area. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions are possible in the vicinity of showers
and mountains will remain obscured. The remainder of the area will
remain dry and mostly cloudy overnight. As another shortwave moves
over central Montana on Sunday, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible once again but forecast confidence is low
regarding the coverage of these showers. Have added VCSH for all TAF
sites between 15z and 00z as forecast models suggest that
precipitation should end by early Sunday evening. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  69  46  70 /  20  20  10  20
CTB  49  67  45  69 /  10  20  10  20
HLN  51  69  46  72 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  49  65  41  68 /  50  30  20  20
WEY  40  55  31  59 /  60  30  20  20
DLN  48  63  42  67 /  50  20  20  20
HVR  51  74  48  73 /  10  10  10  20
LWT  51  67  46  68 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 310455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1054 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
Expect at least scattered showers to continue the rest of tonight
over southwest Montana. Satellite imagery showed a weather
disturbance aloft near the eastern Oregon border at mid-evening.
This disturbance will continue moving to the east/southeast so
even though it might weaken a little still expect some
precipitation over southwest Montana later this evening/overnight.
Radar not showing much over north central Montana so dropped the
mention of showers/thunderstorms for the rest of this evening.
Also dropped the mention of thunderstorms over central Montana as
seeing little if any instability. For sky cover..satellite imagery
showed Chinook arch cloudiness over the east slopes so increased
sky cover in that area. Expect this cloudiness to continue after
midnight in that area so changed the forecast from partly cloudy
to mostly cloudy. Most of the area should be mostly cloudy if not
cloudy the rest of tonight so increased low temperatures slightly
for Sunday morning. Models are generally forecasting light
precipitation over the plains for Sunday afternoon. There will be
weak low level downslope but think forecast instability should
overcome this and result in at least isolated
showers/thunderstorms so added this to the forecast for a good
chunk of the plains. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Showers will persist across southwest Montana tonight including KBZN
and KLWT as another weak shortwave moves over the area. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions are possible in the vicinity of showers
and mountains will remain obscured. The remainder of the area will
remain dry and mostly cloudy overnight. As another shortwave moves
over central Montana on Sunday, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible once again but forecast confidence is low
regarding the coverage of these showers. Have added VCSH for all TAF
sites between 15z and 00z as forecast models suggest that
precipitation should end by early Sunday evening. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  69  46  70 /  20  20  10  20
CTB  49  67  45  69 /  10  20  10  20
HLN  51  69  46  72 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  49  65  41  68 /  50  30  20  20
WEY  40  55  31  59 /  60  30  20  20
DLN  48  63  42  67 /  50  20  20  20
HVR  51  74  48  73 /  10  10  10  20
LWT  51  67  46  68 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 310311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Expect at least scattered showers to continue the rest of tonight
over southwest Montana. Satellite imagery showed a weather
disturbance aloft near the eastern Oregon border at mid-evening.
This disturbance will continue moving to the east/southeast so
even though it might weaken a little still expect some
precipitation over southwest Montana later this evening/overnight.
Radar not showing much over north central Montana so dropped the
mention of showers/thunderstorms for the rest of this evening.
Also dropped the mention of thunderstorms over central Montana as
seeing little if any instability. For sky cover..satellite imagery
showed Chinook arch cloudiness over the east slopes so increased
sky cover in that area. Expect this cloudiness to continue after
midnight in that area so changed the forecast from partly cloudy
to mostly cloudy. Most of the area should be mostly cloudy if not
cloudy the rest of tonight so increased low temperatures slightly
for Sunday morning. Models are generally forecasting light
precipitation over the plains for Sunday afternoon. There will be
weak low level downslope but think forecast instability should
overcome this and result in at least isolated
showers/thunderstorms so added this to the forecast for a good
chunk of the plains. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  69  46  70 /  20  20  10  20
CTB  49  67  45  69 /  10  20  10  20
HLN  51  69  46  72 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  49  65  41  68 /  50  30  20  20
WEY  40  55  31  59 /  60  30  20  20
DLN  48  63  42  67 /  50  20  20  20
HVR  51  74  48  73 /  10  10  10  20
LWT  51  67  46  68 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 310311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Expect at least scattered showers to continue the rest of tonight
over southwest Montana. Satellite imagery showed a weather
disturbance aloft near the eastern Oregon border at mid-evening.
This disturbance will continue moving to the east/southeast so
even though it might weaken a little still expect some
precipitation over southwest Montana later this evening/overnight.
Radar not showing much over north central Montana so dropped the
mention of showers/thunderstorms for the rest of this evening.
Also dropped the mention of thunderstorms over central Montana as
seeing little if any instability. For sky cover..satellite imagery
showed Chinook arch cloudiness over the east slopes so increased
sky cover in that area. Expect this cloudiness to continue after
midnight in that area so changed the forecast from partly cloudy
to mostly cloudy. Most of the area should be mostly cloudy if not
cloudy the rest of tonight so increased low temperatures slightly
for Sunday morning. Models are generally forecasting light
precipitation over the plains for Sunday afternoon. There will be
weak low level downslope but think forecast instability should
overcome this and result in at least isolated
showers/thunderstorms so added this to the forecast for a good
chunk of the plains. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  69  46  70 /  20  20  10  20
CTB  49  67  45  69 /  10  20  10  20
HLN  51  69  46  72 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  49  65  41  68 /  50  30  20  20
WEY  40  55  31  59 /  60  30  20  20
DLN  48  63  42  67 /  50  20  20  20
HVR  51  74  48  73 /  10  10  10  20
LWT  51  67  46  68 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 302337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 302337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 302025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 302025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301629
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1029 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301629
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1029 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 301025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 301025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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