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000
FXUS65 KTFX 301146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN SMOKE REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN SMOKE REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN SMOKE REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1146Z.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT AREAS IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN SMOKE REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
352 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
352 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300612
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300612
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300612
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300612
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH LEWIS & CLARK AND CASCADE COUNTIES EARLIER NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN BLAINE TO NORTHERN MEAGHER COUNTIES WITH STORM
CELLS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE STORMS ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND
0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY NOW HAS ONLY MADE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THRU GLACIER/PONDERA/TETON COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. AS SUCH, THE
FORECASTED BREEZY-TO-GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WERE THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PASSED BUT
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS LAST BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS IN WESTERN MT AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MT/IDAHO BORDER. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  10  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  20  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  20  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292123
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  20  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  30  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  40  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292123
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
323 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
RAPID CELL MOTION WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ID TO NORTHEAST OR.
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CRANKING UP THE
WINDS AS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AS WIND
BEGINS TO MIX OUT THE SMOKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE SMOKE WOULD RETURN. COOLER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COULD GENERATE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS POSTED TO COVER THE
HAZARD WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS COULD HELP
MAINTAIN EXTREME BEHAVIOR ON EXISTING FIRES IN THE AREA WITH THE
ABSENCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. PN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT, THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  78  49  74 /  20  30  20   0
CTB  54  72  46  69 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  56  78  44  75 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  54  81  42  77 /  30  30  10   0
WEY  45  71  30  69 /  30  20  10   0
DLN  54  76  41  75 /  40  30  10   0
HVR  59  81  48  76 /  30  30  30   0
LWT  58  79  44  74 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291757
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME ACROSS NW SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MT WHERE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
LOOK GOOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING A FEW
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  86  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291757
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME ACROSS NW SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MT WHERE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
LOOK GOOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING A FEW
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  86  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291757
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME ACROSS NW SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MT WHERE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
LOOK GOOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING A FEW
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  86  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291757
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME ACROSS NW SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MT WHERE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
LOOK GOOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING A FEW
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOW. SPEAKING OF
THE COLD FRONT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCTB BY 00Z...KGTF/KHLN
AROUND 03Z...AND KHVR/KLWT/KBZN AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE A
RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  86  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
959 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME ACROSS NW SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MT WHERE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
LOOK GOOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING A FEW
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  86  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291559
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
959 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME ACROSS NW SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MT WHERE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
LOOK GOOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING A FEW
POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  86  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291258
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291258
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291258
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291258
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW MT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH ARE MOVING INTO AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION SO HAVE UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS GOING
ON RELATIVE TO THE RADAR. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  20  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MONTANA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290940
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290940
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290940
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290940
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY TO MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HEIGHTENED AS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
MODELS ARE SLOWLY ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO LESS SMOKE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY WILL LAST IS
RATHER LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED. CONDITIONS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING VISIBILITIES BY
MONDAY. SUK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS OFF THE PERIOD OVER
CANADA`S WEST COAST. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE EVOLVED THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PROGRESS INLAND AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS NEW SOLUTION DEVELOPED WITH
THE FRIDAY 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT ABSOLUTE, IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, I HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST
STEPS TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THIS
NEW SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE THIS MODEL TREND STILL DOES NOT INDICATE
A SEASON-ENDING EVENT FOR WESTERN WILDFIRES, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOME RAIN AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REDUCE SMOKE
COVERAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO
9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  60  78  50 /  20  20  20  10
CTB  88  53  71  47 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  89  56  79  44 /  30  30  20  10
BZN  89  55  82  42 /  10  20  30  10
WEY  81  45  71  30 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  86  55  76  41 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  94  60  81  49 /  20  40  30  20
LWT  92  58  81  44 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290551
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290551
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290551
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290551
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX
TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290326
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290326
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290326
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290326
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.UPDATE...

AN EARLY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS IN
THIS AREA INDICATE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE
PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE. RADAR AND
SATELLITE INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
ALSO RAISED POPS BARELY INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA AS
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD. PN

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.UPDATE...

AN EARLY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS IN
THIS AREA INDICATE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE
PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE. RADAR AND
SATELLITE INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
ALSO RAISED POPS BARELY INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA AS
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD. PN

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.UPDATE...

AN EARLY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS IN
THIS AREA INDICATE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE
PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE. RADAR AND
SATELLITE INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
ALSO RAISED POPS BARELY INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA AS
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD. PN

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.UPDATE...

AN EARLY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS IN
THIS AREA INDICATE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE
PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE. RADAR AND
SATELLITE INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
ALSO RAISED POPS BARELY INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA AS
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD. PN

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 282342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 282146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1805Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES AS WELL AS OBSCURE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281805
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP, SKY, AND
WEATHER GRIDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1805Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES AS WELL AS OBSCURE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281805
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP, SKY, AND
WEATHER GRIDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1805Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES AS WELL AS OBSCURE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP, SKY, AND
WEATHER GRIDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT
IMPACT ON TERMINALS IS LOW. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z SATURDAY. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT
IMPACT ON TERMINALS IS LOW. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z SATURDAY. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT
IMPACT ON TERMINALS IS LOW. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z SATURDAY. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT
IMPACT ON TERMINALS IS LOW. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z SATURDAY. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT
IMPACT ON TERMINALS IS LOW. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z SATURDAY. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 06Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SMOKE
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS CEILING GROUPS THAT BORDER ON
LIMITING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TAF SITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 06Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SMOKE
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS CEILING GROUPS THAT BORDER ON
LIMITING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TAF SITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MDT FRI AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND NEVER
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE KEEPING
THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE). HAVE THEREFORE MOSTLY
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS BETWEEN
BUTTE AND BOZEMAN TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING STORM MOVING THROUGH
THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY, EXCEPT FOR WHERE THE WEAKENING STORM IS. OTHERWISE,
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 06Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SMOKE
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS CEILING GROUPS THAT BORDER ON
LIMITING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TAF SITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  30   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  30   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MDT FRI AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND NEVER
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE KEEPING
THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE). HAVE THEREFORE MOSTLY
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS BETWEEN
BUTTE AND BOZEMAN TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING STORM MOVING THROUGH
THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY, EXCEPT FOR WHERE THE WEAKENING STORM IS. OTHERWISE,
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 06Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SMOKE
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS CEILING GROUPS THAT BORDER ON
LIMITING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TAF SITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  30   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  30   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MDT FRI AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND NEVER
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE KEEPING
THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE). HAVE THEREFORE MOSTLY
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS BETWEEN
BUTTE AND BOZEMAN TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING STORM MOVING THROUGH
THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY, EXCEPT FOR WHERE THE WEAKENING STORM IS. OTHERWISE,
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 06Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SMOKE
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS CEILING GROUPS THAT BORDER ON
LIMITING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TAF SITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  30   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  30   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 280609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MDT FRI AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND NEVER
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE KEEPING
THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE). HAVE THEREFORE MOSTLY
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS BETWEEN
BUTTE AND BOZEMAN TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING STORM MOVING THROUGH
THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY, EXCEPT FOR WHERE THE WEAKENING STORM IS. OTHERWISE,
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 06Z.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SMOKE
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS CEILING GROUPS THAT BORDER ON
LIMITING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TAF SITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  30   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  30   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND NEVER
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE KEEPING
THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE). HAVE THEREFORE MOSTLY
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS BETWEEN
BUTTE AND BOZEMAN TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING STORM MOVING THROUGH
THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY, EXCEPT FOR WHERE THE WEAKENING STORM IS. OTHERWISE,
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE WORST VISIBILITY/THICKEST SMOKE LAYER
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (20Z-03Z).
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
06Z. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, BUT THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  30   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  30   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND NEVER
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (LIKELY DUE TO THE SMOKE KEEPING
THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE). HAVE THEREFORE MOSTLY
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS BETWEEN
BUTTE AND BOZEMAN TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING STORM MOVING THROUGH
THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY, EXCEPT FOR WHERE THE WEAKENING STORM IS. OTHERWISE,
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE WORST VISIBILITY/THICKEST SMOKE LAYER
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (20Z-03Z).
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
06Z. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, BUT THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  30   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  30   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE WORST VISIBILITY/THICKEST SMOKE LAYER
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (20Z-03Z).
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
06Z. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, BUT THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE WORST VISIBILITY/THICKEST SMOKE LAYER
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (20Z-03Z).
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
06Z. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, BUT THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE WORST VISIBILITY/THICKEST SMOKE LAYER
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (20Z-03Z).
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
06Z. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, BUT THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BECOMES SCATTERED AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BECOMES SCATTERED AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




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