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000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1153Z.
Cold front approaching from west this morning to bring increasing
mid level ceilings early along with increasing winds. Ceilings to
continue to drop with a chance for showers after 16Z, spreading over
the plains by 20Z. Most locations will remain VFR with intermittent
periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers. Best chance for showers
to be along and behind the cold front. Additionally, atmosphere
slightly unstable near front, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
Front to exit to the east overnight with ceilings improving from the
west after 02Z Wednesday. Winds to decrease some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement
bringing a negatively tilted upper trof across the area this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the
approaching trof and clouds will increase through the morning. An
associated surface cold front will push across the area this
afternoon with showers developing along and behind the front as it
pushes east. Enough instability within the airmass for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Isolated lightning strikes have occurred
in Idaho as the front passed through. Cooler air following in the
wake of the cold frontal passage will allow snow levels to fall to
5500 to 6000 feet. Light accumulating snow can be expected at this
elevation with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible above 7000 feet.
Most of the snow will fall over the mountains of southwest
Montana. Mountain passes may see a rain/snow mix by evening. The
upper trof moves quickly to northeast Montana by Wednesday morning
bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cool Wednesday even as upper ridging takes place during the
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft increases again Wednesday night
and continues Thursday as another upper trof approaches the Pacific
Northwest coast. A few showers will be possible over the Rocky
Mountains with the plains remaining dry. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Overall, seasonably mild weather
expected as a progressive pattern steers a series of Pacific low
pressure troughs through the area during the period. High pressure
ridge centered over the Rocky Mountain states at start of period
quickly gives way to Pacific low pressure trough during the weekend.
Models are in relatively close agreement with timing and strength of
system as it moves through with both ECMWF and GFS calling for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler and areas of rain or snow
showers, mainly over the west and southwest mountains. Downslope
winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and valleys.
This low pressure trough starts working off to the east on Monday
with high pressure again rebuilding briefly before the next trough
begins pushing in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  62  44 /  60  40   0  10
CTB  58  37  62  42 /  60  20   0  10
HLN  60  36  61  40 /  70  40  10  10
BZN  63  31  57  32 /  40  50  10  10
WEY  50  24  46  24 /  60  50  10  10
DLN  58  31  56  37 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  65  39  63  39 /  30  30  10   0
LWT  69  37  61  40 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is expected across Montana with clouds
gradually increasing from the west after midnight. Scattered
showers will move into the western mountains by morning than will
increase in coverage across the forecast area on Tuesday. Going
forecast is in good shape and has a good handle on the expected
increase in clouds and PoPs over the next 24 hours so no changes
are needed this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 210500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is expected across Montana with clouds
gradually increasing from the west after midnight. Scattered
showers will move into the western mountains by morning than will
increase in coverage across the forecast area on Tuesday. Going
forecast is in good shape and has a good handle on the expected
increase in clouds and PoPs over the next 24 hours so no changes
are needed this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 6
hours. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest through the
night. Mid level ceilings, and the chance for showers, will increase
from the southwest after 12Z, spreading over the plains by 18Z. Most
locations will remain VFR with intermittent periods of MVFR and
isolated IFR in showers. Conditions look to improve from the
southwest after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 210304
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is expected across Montana with clouds
gradually increasing from the west after midnight. Scattered
showers will move into the western mountains by morning than will
increase in coverage across the forecast area on Tuesday. Going
forecast is in good shape and has a good handle on the expected
increase in clouds and PoPs over the next 24 hours so no changes
are needed this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 12
hours. Winds will be light over the plains and breezy along the
Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail. After 12Z clouds, and
the chance for showers, will increase from the southwest, spreading
over the plains by 18Z. Most locations will remain VFR with
intermittent periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210304
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is expected across Montana with clouds
gradually increasing from the west after midnight. Scattered
showers will move into the western mountains by morning than will
increase in coverage across the forecast area on Tuesday. Going
forecast is in good shape and has a good handle on the expected
increase in clouds and PoPs over the next 24 hours so no changes
are needed this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 12
hours. Winds will be light over the plains and breezy along the
Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail. After 12Z clouds, and
the chance for showers, will increase from the southwest, spreading
over the plains by 18Z. Most locations will remain VFR with
intermittent periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210304
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is expected across Montana with clouds
gradually increasing from the west after midnight. Scattered
showers will move into the western mountains by morning than will
increase in coverage across the forecast area on Tuesday. Going
forecast is in good shape and has a good handle on the expected
increase in clouds and PoPs over the next 24 hours so no changes
are needed this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 12
hours. Winds will be light over the plains and breezy along the
Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail. After 12Z clouds, and
the chance for showers, will increase from the southwest, spreading
over the plains by 18Z. Most locations will remain VFR with
intermittent periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210304
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
904 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A quiet night is expected across Montana with clouds
gradually increasing from the west after midnight. Scattered
showers will move into the western mountains by morning than will
increase in coverage across the forecast area on Tuesday. Going
forecast is in good shape and has a good handle on the expected
increase in clouds and PoPs over the next 24 hours so no changes
are needed this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 12
hours. Winds will be light over the plains and breezy along the
Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail. After 12Z clouds, and
the chance for showers, will increase from the southwest, spreading
over the plains by 18Z. Most locations will remain VFR with
intermittent periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 12
hours. Winds will be light over the plains and breezy along the
Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail. After 12Z clouds, and
the chance for showers, will increase from the southwest, spreading
over the plains by 18Z. Most locations will remain VFR with
intermittent periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 202025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 201721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
933 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
933 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201125
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 201125
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 200935
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 200935
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 200453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 200453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 200200
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast tonight as quiet conditions continue
across the region. Expecting an almost identical day Monday.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to amplify
over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain clear skies,
light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis shifts to the
east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Record
high temperatures are possible Monday at some locations even with
increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally agree that a short
wave trough will amplify while moving across the Pacific northwest.
The ECMWF solution is faster than others while the NAM feature is a
bit slower and breaks off further to the southwest. A consensus
approach will bring precipitation through the zones from southwest
to northeast on Tuesday, with the highest POPs over the southwest.
Snow levels will drop to around 6000 feet Tuesday night, but with
only light accumulation expected over the peaks of southwest
Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 200200
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast tonight as quiet conditions continue
across the region. Expecting an almost identical day Monday.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to amplify
over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain clear skies,
light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis shifts to the
east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Record
high temperatures are possible Monday at some locations even with
increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally agree that a short
wave trough will amplify while moving across the Pacific northwest.
The ECMWF solution is faster than others while the NAM feature is a
bit slower and breaks off further to the southwest. A consensus
approach will bring precipitation through the zones from southwest
to northeast on Tuesday, with the highest POPs over the southwest.
Snow levels will drop to around 6000 feet Tuesday night, but with
only light accumulation expected over the peaks of southwest
Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 192103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 192103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 191718
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1118 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front will
push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow levels
will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows possible
over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher peaks of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages
today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may reach record values
at some locations. Temperatures will drop to near seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 191718
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1118 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front will
push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow levels
will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows possible
over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher peaks of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages
today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may reach record values
at some locations. Temperatures will drop to near seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 191453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 191453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 191120
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 191120
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 190924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 190924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 190345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 190345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 182329
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 182329
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 182034
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
A weak upper level shortwave is passing across the region.
Mid-level clouds will move east of the area this afternoon and the
air mass will generally remain dry. However, the shortwave has
caused surface winds to become brisk and gusty. These winds will
diminish quickly early this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 182034
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
A weak upper level shortwave is passing across the region.
Mid-level clouds will move east of the area this afternoon and the
air mass will generally remain dry. However, the shortwave has
caused surface winds to become brisk and gusty. These winds will
diminish quickly early this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 181721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows the shortwave feature moving quickly
through the state. Removed POPs for the southwest as drier air
moves into this region behind the shortwave. Otherwise adjusted
sky and temps through the afternoon to match current observations.
Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
A weak upper level shortwave is passing across the region.
Mid-level clouds will move east of the area this afternoon and the
air mass will generally remain dry. However, the shortwave has
caused surface winds to become brisk and gusty. These winds will
diminish quickly early this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

Today through Monday...Mid-level clouds and moisture will increase
today as a weak upper-level shortwave trough moves over the Treasure
State. Though moisture is limited, a few showers are possible in the
mountains today so have increased PoPs to slight chance for these
areas. Breezy west-southwesterly winds are also expected across
north-central Montana with stronger winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front. An isolated wind gust over 57 mph is possible through favored
canyons and mountain passes along the Rocky Mountain Front, however
forecast confidence is low so will continue to monitor and hold off
on any high wind highlights. This shortwave trough will quickly move
out of the area by tonight and a ridge of high pressure will build
yielding lighter winds, drier and warmer conditions through early
next week. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages, with
near-record highs possible on Monday. MLV

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  69  42  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  67  35  68  36 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  59  27  60  28 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  38  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  72  38  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  70  42  70  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 181721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery shows the shortwave feature moving quickly
through the state. Removed POPs for the southwest as drier air
moves into this region behind the shortwave. Otherwise adjusted
sky and temps through the afternoon to match current observations.
Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
A weak upper level shortwave is passing across the region.
Mid-level clouds will move east of the area this afternoon and the
air mass will generally remain dry. However, the shortwave has
caused surface winds to become brisk and gusty. These winds will
diminish quickly early this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

Today through Monday...Mid-level clouds and moisture will increase
today as a weak upper-level shortwave trough moves over the Treasure
State. Though moisture is limited, a few showers are possible in the
mountains today so have increased PoPs to slight chance for these
areas. Breezy west-southwesterly winds are also expected across
north-central Montana with stronger winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front. An isolated wind gust over 57 mph is possible through favored
canyons and mountain passes along the Rocky Mountain Front, however
forecast confidence is low so will continue to monitor and hold off
on any high wind highlights. This shortwave trough will quickly move
out of the area by tonight and a ridge of high pressure will build
yielding lighter winds, drier and warmer conditions through early
next week. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages, with
near-record highs possible on Monday. MLV

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  69  42  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  67  35  68  36 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  59  27  60  28 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  38  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  72  38  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  70  42  70  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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